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redordead's 2022 PCT prediction
redordead
Hello Smile

Back again this year with another prediction. Let's first see how bad my prediction was last year Pfft

Rank
Team
Coeff.
Actual Rank
Difference
1
Aker - MOT
1,31
1
0
2
Polar
1,22
2
0
3
Team UBS
1,20
6
-3
4
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
1,20
7
-3
5
cycleYorkshire
1,18
5
0
6
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
1,16
14
-8
7
Binance Cycling
1,12
11
-4
8
Assa Abloy
1,09
16
-8
9
Kraftwerk Man Machine
1,08
9
0
10
Minions
1,06
17
-7
11
Los Pollos Hermanos
1,01
4
+7
12
Duolingo
1,01
3
+9
13
Voyagin - Bird
1,00
18
-5
14
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
1,00
12
+2
15
Red Bull Zalgiris
0,98
13
+2
16
Philips - Force India
0,92
19
-3
17
Eurosport x GCN
0,92
26
-9
18
Bralirwa - Stevens
0,90
10
+8
19
Project: Africa
0,90
15
+4
20
Tryg - Ritter Sport
0,86
25
-5
21
Carrefour - ESPN
0,85
22
-1
22
Sauber Petronas Racing
0,83
21
+1
23
Cedevita
0,82
8
+15
24
Jura - Fiat
0,81
23
+1
25
Podium Ambition
0,81
24
+1
26
Indosat Ooredoo
0,75
20
+6


Not very good, huh? :lol:
About 50% of the predictions were pretty good and the other 50% were god awful. On average the difference between the actual ranking and my prediction was 4.3 places. And of course I'm by far the worst at predicting my own team. I either place myself too high or like last year way too low Rolling Eyes

I will post about this year's teams in the next few days.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
Teams Overview 1-8


Before the actual prediction I'll just take a quick glance over all the teams. Today I have the first 8 teams in alphabetical order. In the next couple days I'll go through all the teams before the final prediction.


Amaysim Cervélo


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Haig72827477767578586173706777
Max
29
515k
McCarthy70678258807570696574717158
Max
30
250k
Bewley74656767727079797977647367
Max
35
400k
Storer70757869727373586474756672
Max
25
170k
Durbridge73586781737470536264686181
Max
31
150k
Hamilton69767565697376556477767067
Max
26
125k
Power67777066777679595663616565
Max
27
75k
O'Connor70777071707275535868687070
Max
27
85k
Schreurs72546752757571777271646361
Max
28
65k
Canty70757375717173526867666574
Max
30
65k
Bayly71747467707269586574787365
Max
32
50k
Lane69747663706872566373786663
Max
31
60k
Monk74606669767070766170727769
Max
26
50k
Scotson72566376737070756675686378
Max
26
55k
Harper67757362717274606574726562
Max
28
50k
Wohler77586676727173517172806076
Max
30
50k
Culey79616565777674536670746767
Max
29
55k
Gillett67737270716774555974777170
Max
32
50k
Christensen78677064767476526865717664
Max
26
50k
Dinham63676463666867596164616660
Max
22
10k
Jones63606158676762616869616258
Max
22
10k
Turnbull65646368626967586060606066
Max
22
10k
Porter61676459626466586165626259
Max
22
10k


PT teams that drop down to PCT are generally some of the favourites to bounce back up and that's definitely the case with Amaysim. A quartet of Haig, newly trained McCarthy, Bewley and Durbridge could fight for the top spot in the division. Also on a side note how impressive is it to have a whole team of Aussies and Kiwis Grin


Assa Abloy


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Monsalve67807571787976556472686471
Max
33
330k
Gesbert71747864807878626873766666
Max
27
300k
Paillot70707180757468566364567180
Max
31
220k
Faglum Karlsson71797373787576566068667479
Max
28
275k
Coutinho72636552757477557980556452
Max
30
135k
Squire68777765707076656171766565
Max
32
120k
Gebremedhin69777464737476505575786664
Max
30
110k
Van der Haar77667266707269757270767871
Max
31
100k
Freuler69727568737572596775677569
Max
30
85k
Gonzalez Salas70576080747667606154786180
Max
30
85k
Mosca71727563737568606575807168
Max
29
80k
Scarponi67767465707173556169698265
Max
33
65k
Veyhe80666865667169515678807169
Max
28
50k
Gallopin72687172747369636768776771
Max
34
50k
Bergstrom Frisk66736871717174615565676671
4.00
27
55k
Magnusson74697058706971586573796858
4.00
30
50k
Kvist67667164726963606771767163
1.00
23
50k
Arvidsson70587074727473586370747075
Max
32
50k
Magnussen71586870647062606770737074
3.64
30
50k
Bergstrom Frisk66666561656765606061637361
1.00
23
50k


Assa Abloy had a slightly disappointing season last year, I thought they would be better. Monsalve has declined, but he's still a pretty good climber and overall the team looks stronger. This should be a solid year for them.


Binance


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Aular68817270767577526369677170
Max
26
355k
Rodrigues65807374737577556172706874
Max
28
150k
Paulinho67758064707274566875706264
Max
32
250k
Blythe75536567746975817571717170
Max
33
380k
Oliveira70677670777272667578656771
Max
26
115k
Kennett75586569737678627978676878
Max
28
125k
Van Lerberghe74606666757474777573686568
Max
30
155k
Bush74636362757371787173667462
Max
32
110k
Salinas69777371747470565972646671
Max
32
155k
Lienhard73667566777269557376776970
Max
28
50k
Bartl69777271737475526070716675
Max
31
75k
Goncalves69737556717067566874626662
Max
27
60k
Venturini75636865747479727577637369
Max
29
50k
Kaczmarek72687575747572696369686776
Max
29
80k
Antunes67767263716970556067747263
Max
32
50k
Palyi73667173727369717274716972
Max
32
50k
Benito68757073727173515661676273
Max
29
50k
Seigle68707564737268606370686967
Max
28
50k
Ikibe63747370707072606265736870
Max
30
50k
Noppe75616962747368737573666863
Max
28
50k
Wirtgen70737364727172586666686964
Max
24
50k
Thill74667374707370616266776874
Max
32
50k


Judging by last year I like Binance more than I should, but I simply like them. This year especially I see them being very competitive in nearly every race they are in and they have very good support for their leaders.


Bralirwa - Stevens


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Madrazo66837475787778536169646775
Max
34
600k
Stallaert77606758766880817976676658
Max
31
650k
Silvestre78616773707174568081706377
Max
32
440k
Ndayisenga66787565696873526373726965
Max
28
110k
Uwizeyimana71767274767577505668695874
Max
29
85k
Eyob68767666746973556266727366
Max
29
75k
Okbamariam73666559707367767268657859
Max
31
50k
El Sabbahi75646964717476647675686870
4.25
25
50k
Khederi67747661686771595873677159
Max
31
50k
Hadi68747274737071617471686974
Max
30
50k
Tesfatsion66727360657071606874696261
3.40
23
70k
Mugisha67697362647370606371786461
4.33
25
50k
Lauk74656266686963677272666466
3.26
25
50k
Mugisha74646972697270636268736466
4.32
25
50k
Mengoulas70656869706865686573726769
2.00
25
50k
Menicucci69626961717171706167696963
3.45
25
50k
Debesay64666859666768626269686459
1.60
23
50k
Melki69626862686965606163716262
1.00
23
10k
Brustenga68606458607064606770617158
2.00
23
10k
Uhiriwe69616668666762606368726468
1.00
21
75k
Cobo61666660636563586264616259
1.00
22
10k
Nsengiyumva68626362676862616162666262
1.00
23
10k


Madrazo, Stallaert and Silvestre. Do I really need to say much more? Those are three top quality leaders. We saw how well Los Pollos did last year with Zmorka, Manninen and Spilak. Well you could easily argue that the Bralirwa trio is better.


Carlsberg - Danske Bank


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Aranburu69777963707974576871626763
Max
27
150k
Guldhammer67807670737472686975706470
Max
33
300k
Jensen71708067777371556676817370
Max
31
270k
Trentin73597360746973807474665566
Max
33
250k
Kragh Andersen77546465707478538177606175
Max
30
245k
Kämna71777178767375626367717078
Max
26
150k
Lander77556959777279737977635959
Max
31
130k
Gregaard71787166787575616370587566
Max
26
105k
Eg67777174767475596068666572
Max
27
85k
Resell75567065737170766170766965
Max
26
75k
Olesen68757562727374636373616661
Max
28
62.5k
Sulvaran72697471687666546674776772
4.99
28
50k
Belevics76606478737273626366756478
Max
26
55k
Asgreen67667768706967556474756668
Max
27
50k
Mestric73637063697068765565717567
Max
25
50k
Girmay71647061707366737172637165
1.00
22
940k
Krigbaum76697074747573626564706973
Max
27
50k
Forssell66626873677166577474696774
3.42
23
50k
Cannister70616664716567697072706266
3.48
23
60k
Skjelmose Jensen70706969667268586465696569
1.00
22
200k
Lord66656764666565636870696867
1.00
23
10k
Eriksson68676858666865646165656559
2.00
23
10k


I was a bit surprised when I looked at Carlsberg, but I see the high capability of this team. The trick might be being able to get the most out of the two puncheurs Jensen and Aranburu, but this team has so many riders that can score big points.


Cedevita


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Beltran69798166737272596676787466
Max
32
620k
Pogacar69787574777878516371696673
4.40
24
210k
Eriksson72677861787475656576757161
Max
26
200k
Gaudu73717866787571576870696966
Max
26
120k
Roman67777564717374616376747858
Max
26
130k
Borisavljevic68777374747475545965646874
Max
28
100k
Bouchard70777467707276556270787666
Max
30
100k
Christodoulos72686878756970535364736579
Max
25
70k
McCormick70667665747170537373675965
Max
28
70k
Ardila65767567676870626271716567
3.42
23
195k
Groselj78586677747871677372697079
Max
26
65k
Pavlic69757272717374636869707074
Max
29
70k
Penko71687176737471586570627176
Max
26
50k
Katrasnik81616369727669636372817369
Max
27
50k
Poljanec77676963706867737171697363
Max
27
50k
Crncevic67767073707075646169677572
Max
27
100k
Siric76637065757865747571607565
4.49
24
50k
Zariff68586060706576607878606770
4.71
25
80k
Buitrago66737165687272606576716665
3.22
23
50k
Wright68676867687067666969726567
1.54
23
50k
Duyvesteyn67657064656865606370696664
2.70
24
50k
Jarc69636663676868686769726863
1.00
23
10k
Bechkov67666469666665556360706668
1.00
23
10k


I won't talk about my own team. Besides, jandal says I already talk too much anyway.


Crabbe-CC Chevigny


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Eislers78676658757673588176636160
Max
33
295k
Reinhardt71576767736678627984516267
Max
32
70k
Carapaz69807172717677505665716172
Max
29
450k
Carsi70515567666973528082526871
Max
30
80k
Kung73707377747273726371737878
Max
29
400k
Chernetskiy70717966806970526371766466
Max
32
100k
Tsatevich73617659727168747473656863
Max
33
65k
Liepins73606659736877557879585860
Max
30
55k
Hagen68747565747271657172747264
Max
31
70k
Bardet66777459727071515275677159
Max
32
200k
Ariesen75656862747371757071716562
Max
28
70k
Manfredi69786565687372546273777365
Max
30
55k
Campenaerts71546978717372625365785678
Max
31
60k
Drizners69627162687164607073726665
3.04
23
50k
Blouwe69667266687069616770716767
3.07
23
50k
Donovan71716965697367626369696967
3.00
23
55k
Van Tricht70656761707167657173676462
3.12
23
50k
Kielich68606658657166646872636962
1.80
23
50k
Bonneu68647058727063626066646258
2.00
23
50k
Van Den Bossche68666863636969686267696861
1.00
22
70k
Daumont66626664676762626970706565
1.00
23
10k
Pluto67616761666767616967656560
2.48
24
50k
Barbosa64686260646465585866595959
1.00
22
10k


This is an interesting team. The thing first that jumps out are 4 sprinters?! All of them have some faults. Some good planning and luck will be required to get the best out of them. Carapaz is solid, but very expensive. Same with Kung. I could see this team both struggling or doing quite well depending on how they use this squad.


Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Eiking71698065787471546876756967
Max
28
290k
Enger73636971717377588178626877
Max
29
400k
Kritskiy71807176727069546461645875
Max
35
400k
Roson67787661677077535474736658
Max
29
125k
Lunke69787273767478586064686976
Max
29
115k
De la Cruz68777473707473555971647273
Max
33
120k
Lavery69717664757168636777776264
Max
32
50k
Pedersen76616767737675637777716978
Max
26
70k
Daniel75677277757472555668736976
Max
28
70k
Laengen69757275757473596166707476
Max
33
120k
Martin68757266747175525971636567
Max
29
50k
Rojus73596767657274577776606473
4.02
24
50k
Ziesler69707662747067526965597164
Max
32
55k
Kittel73536279716763555870706279
Max
34
120k
Kurianov79656562767476717570727064
Max
26
85k
Skjerping67707762716768525865627362
Max
29
50k
Arensman71737070687369676366726970
3.13
23
50k
Hvideberg74646963707165716164776465
3.18
23
60k
Christakos68736868677169586167717071
3.47
23
50k
Knotten70626276706970585960666672
4.24
24
50k
Ulysbayev68716968686868606264676367
3.06
24
50k
Lunder70626558766666587075757063
3.19
23
50k


Eiking, Enger and Kritskiy are three pretty solid leaders, but behind them is where this team shines. Their depth is very good and while the leaders aren't the cream of the crop the balance of the squad looks good. It's never easy in your 1st year in PCT, but I think Gjensidige has a good chance of sticking around.
Edited by redordead on 20-09-2022 08:06

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mghq2.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/mgmanager21.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
Teams Overview 9-16


Before the actual prediction I'll just take a quick glance over all the teams. The next 8 teams are featured today.


HelloFresh - Lampre


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Kennaugh76576462737078578180696262
Max
33
400k
Rowe78556665767079757980757174
Max
32
275k
Meurisse73747767747474687178726868
Max
30
210k
Daniel73566956767674807672697464
Max
31
450k
Elissonde66787363767779665566617263
Max
31
160k
Van Keirsbulck72657151757363787068715851
Max
31
130k
Dzamastagic78667065767276667678786665
Max
31
99k
Vingerling71556265726676687979576876
Max
32
50k
Hermans73667561757767626976737664
Max
27
50k
Potocki68777270747175546264666970
Max
29
82k
Thwaites73596561747076767876607061
Max
32
69k
Riesebeek74707367737569736972767171
Max
30
75k
De Vos68757566737374596269727368
Max
29
55k
Gaspar71757566737274556167727066
Max
30
55k
Kumara74626754747065757167736854
Max
27
55k
Heymes67757173747171535458636173
Max
29
50k
Battistella70707065697468636767696671
3.00
24
50k
Quinn69696965687268606668636368
1.00
22
100k
Baroncini70636968697268636670716966
1.00
22
50k
Vermaerke69646865707063626567636463
1.00
22
55k
Milan70586268677462636970666370
1.00
22
50k


I really like this team when it comes to sprints, flat classics and cobbles. After that things get a bit more sketchy. Riders like Elissonde, Potocki and even Meurisse will need to find ways to contribute on other terrains.


Indosat Ooredoo


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Borges70708061757370547181756560
Max
31
410k
Dunbar69777679747778586068627177
Max
26
600k
Howard75626767746977628178636467
Max
33
250k
Page75576660727275667879625559
Max
29
70k
Rohendi70757570737574556273717071
Max
26
120k
Silva68657566757056637479666461
Max
32
50k
Kolar65777561707171505466726061
Max
30
80k
Arifin66767466677173525872826366
Max
27
80k
Suryadi71566264726876587976616064
Max
32
60k
Gani75616765767373687677606668
Max
30
60k
Gesink66767473687070595458655973
Max
36
75k
Setiawa68707574767271576270766674
Max
26
50k
Arif Prayogo73636876737570596464746478
Max
30
50k
Novak68757174727070586262625974
Max
34
50k
Gall67757463697070586170686462
4.74
24
50k
Wolf70606377717270555662585975
Max
30
50k
Yudha68687265727169556471706766
3.16
23
50k
Rubio65717062737170606070706362
3.23
24
50k
Ahmad67686868666969546269767368
1.00
22
185k
Flynn67606757696765606669636260
1.00
22
10k
Ocampo67586372706871545863566572
3.00
23
50k


Indosat were one of the teams I didn't think would survive last year, but they made it. They replaced Jensen with Borges which should be an improvement and the training of Dunbar should show results. Still I think this team might be flirting with the relegation zone again this season, but perhaps they prove me wrong again!


Kraftwerk Man Machine


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Arndt71797656777672637175616456
Max
31
310k
Zabel74606955747079658179665255
Max
29
250k
Ranaweera67807375757574525865576973
Max
27
200k
Boily67767870727269566874697961
Max
32
135k
Haller72616556727176588079666471
Max
31
160k
Bilbao71677965777171517175676661
Max
32
115k
Koch66777368697474516776576170
Max
31
105k
Moazemi67737869727275626573656367
Max
32
100k
Nerz69797172737072556366645972
Max
33
150k
Ludvigsson68767276757273566271657275
Max
31
170k
De Buyst73617068737575757676707068
Max
29
135k
Rumac71727564727068557476666966
Max
28
90k
Zhupa75566765787467777468675965
Max
32
85k
Destribois69767568686974526175777867
Max
31
55k
Helme69757469717274626076736769
Max
26
65k
Tatarinov69757463717168576573766363
Max
31
60k
Scheit66727658727169506471776658
Max
31
50k
Dieteren67707758757068516366807358
Max
29
55k
Chaiyasombat68747068697272526671706968
3.10
23
60k
Walsleben72596767726861746870707270
Max
32
50k
Juntunen67616961656863616869666160
1.52
23
10k
Mathis69606573657261626870646071
3.80
28
50k
Vernon68606470687163667168636471
1.00
22
225k


I predicted them in 9th place last year and I was spot on for once. Let's see if they can dominate the Tour of America again. Nonetheless Kraftwerk have mastered their depth approach and are well stocked for another good season.


Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Oomen71817574787778566569726877
Max
27
450k
Novak68807766747677616576737564
Max
27
330k
Bonifazio79506655687571568080587270
Max
29
350k
De Plus72767964747371576172686665
Max
27
160k
Gamper77626676777769786371727276
Max
25
160k
Senni71777374767976596672667374
Max
30
160k
Sajnok74616578707671637372627079
Max
25
85k
Mareczko74536157717379507877616675
Max
28
60k
Fedeli67737562727066576472686564
Max
26
50k
Aleotti72697370747370626573686969
3.20
23
150k
Verhelst71567365726968746268677165
Max
32
50k
Van Gils68737160697371606872676860
3.29
23
60k
Biermans77556164717465716667776966
Max
27
50k
Verwilst74656666697165716566736466
4.33
25
50k
Siddikov73636575747471686566787275
4.27
25
50k
Van Aert75636670727372686468697579
Max
28
50k
Potocki68686971717271526568687171
3.24
23
50k
Covi65707161696965606464626562
3.99
24
50k
Weemaes71606172726965557171676372
3.99
24
50k
Kroonen66586258636663616364706058
1.00
22
50k


Lierse is super solid. I always liked their team, but they tend to finish a bit lower than I think. Maybe this year they will flip that. Oomen and Novak are a great climbing duo, Bonifazio is back to being a good sprinter, while De Plus and Gamper could both benefit from not the strongest ever fields in hilly and cobbled races.


Minions - Subwoolfer


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Cattaneo70827079768080545170626479
Max
32
550k
Vesely73606857746876578180617157
Max
30
250k
Dennis72747578737567536568695681
Max
32
500k
Kalaba74656970707276577979586878
Max
26
150k
Brown68757376747372605871656477
Max
31
125k
Hodeg72536567697470517978536473
Max
26
100k
Lemus Davila70777272757068565762717272
Max
30
95k
Sweeck73626868717262767071677571
Max
29
60k
Kuboki72647274737269587675696477
Max
33
50k
Quintana69767170737276506163676470
Max
30
65k
Marcos74627363716570746570736465
Max
31
50k
De Witte74606861757267757169646561
Max
29
50k
Stuyven70637758756768626674796958
Max
30
50k
Bjerg74626677717571636869706777
4.62
24
95k
Tikhonin70667264717168636872706764
3.24
24
50k
Coppel70596976686860505864665776
Max
36
50k
English78596467747364637175596970
Max
30
50k
Rosas72596575727073517074556176
Max
32
50k
Novikov65716865686967606168696464
3.19
23
50k
Merchan62726759626468585865645860
2.00
23
50k
Stöckli64686860686667615964637058
1.00
22
50k
Hailemichael60686658646566586066676158
2.00
23
10k


The Minions went through a rebuild this season. Uran is out, Cattaneo in. The Italian should do great as one of the best climbers and time-trialists in the division. Dennis should do well if he has the right races available to him. But in the end the sprinters still need to fire if this team is to compete for more than just another year in PCT.


Philips - Force India


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Choi71817475777679635968687174
Max
31
410k
Benoot71758063757474766971626662
Max
28
375k
Penasa70807470757277505776686470
Max
31
240k
Van Asbroeck75537166757279748078746874
Max
32
195k
Eenkhoorn71787369767780656471696775
Max
25
150k
Raileanu66777763747376565970696765
Max
29
125k
Kuroeda74536367727375777478636471
Max
27
100k
Velasco73727660757168646976756962
Max
27
115k
Minali73525857707479597979627470
Max
27
100k
Kuroeda72637052767782767673677163
Max
30
90k
Xandri68767373687472606069757471
Max
28
95k
Barta69767273717470547267655675
Max
26
90k
Dumoulin71596878757670526567666078
Max
32
50k
McLay73566755747279727776626655
Max
30
65k
Champoussin67737360747373575972687261
3.99
24
90k
Henttala66746873737272506067637173
Max
31
50k
Leemreize65737164687170606268716664
3.41
23
50k
Stoltz77596563717470625969827077
Max
34
50k
Van Dijke68677069717168677068707170
1.00
22
80k
Galvan Ramirez71696768676967506466696969
1.00
22
50k


Philips is taking a big step forward compared to last season. The addition of Choi and a trained Benoot gives this team extra depth and quality with good leader options in most races. This is a team that could easily be in the promotion hunt.


Project: Africa


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Berhane68817566777473526268677165
Max
32
270k
Van Niekerk69757865727576666374827165
Max
25
150k
Afewerki73636463777081697980687071
Max
30
160k
Gebrezgabihier68707966747472536769776664
Max
28
95k
Grmay67777465717376586171587465
Max
31
55k
Moulingui74537152717153786568647152
Max
27
100k
Ssabagwanya70727556807577676077747253
Max
28
70k
Lecourt De Billot75586964747365756174816468
Max
29
85k
Seibeb71757666706971596173805966
Max
30
65k
Cisse74536367736778637877735965
Max
31
71k
Janse van Rensburg69686777696967625974666377
Max
33
50k
Reguigui72767173726971506369686275
Max
32
50k
Kiflay74636876737068636669647277
Max
31
50k
Main68737073717474586369737173
4.89
26
50k
Kireva75686975737672697073717176
Max
32
60k
Tesfom74626576697367536367716475
4.58
28
50k
Van Heerden68717366666969606373676663
4.74
28
55k
Visser71637068727268657272756867
3.23
24
55k
Hamza74526376747370505668696379
Max
30
50k
Awuku67656866687170687071676464
2.06
25
50k
Kusi68647071667071616468716771
2.00
26
50k
Munyaneza66627160706965585671756859
3.03
26
55k
Broxham68666768666665606767676568
1.00
22
50k
Nzafashwanayo69656660687067606254686760
1.00
22
50k


One the best stories of the transfer season was Aidan getting Aidan. But Aidan is no Bobridge and despite bringing in a super solid climber in Berhane I could see this team struggling to hold on for another season in PCT. They might need another great season from Afewerki also.


Red Bull Zalgiris


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Halvorsen76586563747180708180706168
Max
26
275k
Reis70817376787678565064666876
Max
30
350k
Errazkin71747870767576646373696770
Max
26
165k
Fernandes71757077787776536267606877
Max
27
160k
Hayakawa73636550756876577979757350
Max
30
55k
Smirnovs68687756746967687278787056
Max
32
55k
Beniusis71696079717372565767686878
Max
25
355k
Grossschartner67747767727372506272716869
Max
29
90k
Schönberger66727659737471576571757459
Max
28
60k
Affonso69767273727074565468745373
Max
31
60k
Groselj69637572727368537272726372
Max
29
50k
Siriwardena67747372717372565868746572
Max
30
50k
Räim74626761737275717675766874
Max
29
50k
Lasinis68757172717172596168676972
4.49
25
50k
Evenepoel74697272747660636470806672
1.00
22
700k
Consonni72586964717676667575656265
Max
28
50k
Cabanas68717174737068566166706775
Max
31
50k
Li74526077716669507473636377
Max
33
55k
Tediashvili71666865717471716770696565
3.08
23
50k
Januskevicius70687069737470556870736868
3.12
23
50k


Zalgiris went through a big reshuffle this offseason, but they've come out of it looking very well. Reis should be well suited for life in PCT and the newly trained Halvorsen looks dangerously similar to Manninen of last season.
Edited by redordead on 21-09-2022 08:06

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mghq2.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/mgmanager21.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
Teams Overview 17-24


Before the actual prediction I'll just take a quick glance over all the teams. Time for the final 8 teams now.


Sauber Petronas Racing


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Van Garderen71708067757267656876787367
Max
34
300k
David74627565767470787073687065
Max
32
175k
Hirschi71757766777775666673807666
4.54
24
150k
Frankiny69787664727577536175716667
Max
28
200k
Pomoshnikov71797464787674526466616764
Max
32
150k
Slagter67777865707272506070817865
Max
33
250k
Campero65787069757072555671697469
Max
31
80k
Schoonbroodt72637563757367746872617463
Max
31
60k
Bellis73667660776864567272756660
Max
34
50k
Marzuki70717464717270747272647163
Max
30
65k
Liphongyu68757274737274655863686373
Max
31
50k
Hibatullah68777263696671576070646557
Max
25
50k
Dulanjana67747274757177636261607575
Max
27
65k
Pellaud70657766746871556570716766
Max
30
50k
Mat Senan69757167747170515870655967
Max
32
50k
Chhetri67767161736567556473707861
Max
32
55k
Anacona66767163706769505056505463
Max
34
50k
Ghani71687365716868746361676764
Max
27
50k
Jiang72616665697372627575657379
Max
28
50k
Forcellini67707467706570526172585759
Max
32
50k
Maccagli72636675707168616368697075
Max
27
50k
Rossi73656969707068706869706573
1.00
22
200k
Voisard65706761676871606163686863
3.99
24
50k
Antonelli68686763676867566569687564
1.00
23
50k


Not really a whole lot of changes at Sauber. They've added Tom David which should be a good move, but they're still relying mostly on the hilly and mountain races. Van Garderen and Slagter are still good, but decline has hit them. Ranaweera is gone so it remains to be seen if they can get similar depth results like last year.


Strava


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Sicard71807674777679556267756374
Max
34
500k
Gaday71677565757271787173616468
Max
29
300k
Felline68667764757371577478687164
Max
32
130k
Azman69767763697273506575766964
Max
28
140k
Poljanski66777767707076566171736667
Max
32
140k
Bouhanni74556355746974598077645855
Max
32
130k
Kreder73647563757177667778716763
Max
32
130k
Dall'Oste70767667717475565871737167
Max
31
110k
Owen73656962737172786471687464
Max
27
120k
Budenieks69757563707572706974757261
Max
27
95k
Sbaragli76566662767079727778586162
Max
32
100k
Sanikwathi72586665706775727878667268
Max
29
80k
Colbrelli74566160747276597975557066
Max
32
75k
Bernas76617566757168627073827165
Max
32
65k
Tarvis76707461747366686472695961
Max
29
50k
Hansen72647564766974646675697169
Max
32
50k
Nielsen75546766717572747371646770
Max
29
50k
Maesen64757261717378515060706660
Max
31
50k
Lindeman72546359706763757374636059
Max
33
50k
Debusschere72576558727170707066686763
Max
33
50k


I like this team quite a bit. The main question though is, are the leaders good enough? Outside of his acceleration Sicard's stats still look great, but it's a deep climbers field this season. Gaday is nice, as is the whole cobbles squad. But are the sprinters good enough and can all these hybrids I love like Azman, Poljanski, Dall'Oste, Budenieks score enough points on their own?


Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Padun67827766727476536075767065
Max
26
440k
Pluchkin70817175727270666368636275
Max
35
400k
Prevar72718062777068536773636662
Max
32
135k
Riabushenko76636862717476667977666867
Max
27
135k
Spilak65787570707168636064646170
Max
36
205k
Rikunov69777374737174516766637476
Max
25
95k
Lutsyshyn70505464697374557980585770
Max
28
95k
Andriafenomananiaina65767274747476565271766470
Max
28
75k
Aniolkowski74626556747378627877576459
4.66
25
85k
Redecker73577262746779527778606063
Max
32
55k
Manamalage81515952716456775756646157
Max
30
50k
Golovash72606078726966557376616578
Max
31
55k
Gladysh71697564717172617074736966
4.78
27
60k
Budyak68747868726773565768637468
Max
27
50k
Nitu68767465737068535270626265
Max
32
50k
Tanovitchii72687660757271576271796860
Max
29
55k
Bratashcuk69717758757069526267657958
Max
30
50k
Dzhus65767064747468555875706364
Max
29
50k
Topchanyuk67767264707068575968726264
Max
33
50k
Varga77616661767369676580837463
Max
29
50k
Orlov69587667746869556370746467
Max
30
50k
Papanov67727069707072546566676673
3.17
23
50k
Zumer68686756667261566575717857
2.00
25
50k
Christapopoulos70607074696863626268736673
3.20
27
50k
Shevchenko69606765727367616168757364
2.96
23
10k
Parashchak69646957686768585967686657
1.00
22
50k


fjhoekie says he doesn't really want to be promoted, because PCT is the best division. So just missing out in 6th place might be the best spot for them Pfft
Again trained, Padun should be great and Pluchkin isn't quite done yet. Prevar should have an easier time this year and should be very good again.


Trans Looney Tunes


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Vanbilsen78506963807475807271726163
Max
32
225k
Calmejane74717767737674607276787070
Max
30
180k
Bystrom72687961757267566876787361
Max
30
140k
Waeytens70718065727068676673767565
Max
31
155k
Garby65797068717675505270726368
Max
31
90k
Korosec71687568747171627578706971
Max
29
100k
Jang67767662727070546674735662
Max
32
70k
Selig70526464716673627879635864
Max
33
95k
Senyenov70627763687365606873727363
Max
29
50k
Kolev75526260737165776267716466
Max
28
50k
Pibernik72657660766868616874726762
Max
29
65k
Vanspeybrouck72626758726563786363707558
Max
35
140k
Henao Montoya66786767697368505467665867
Max
35
60k
Schlechter74597267716768756166726767
Max
32
50k
Iino67767267717071535865716467
Max
33
75k
Dyball70757274736970536070686372
Max
33
90k
Vanhoucke70757170697174636768727071
4.63
25
50k
Novikov68767169726969556168686669
Max
33
100k
Abraha72566461707166757472676861
Max
32
50k
Centrone74627159726770765358747562
Max
27
65k
Cuming70747472747071586469746372
Max
32
50k
Sobrero69697173677272586469666471
4.00
25
50k
Doull72596573717068717373636575
Max
29
50k
Ghyselinck72596675727468596265725975
Max
34
50k


One of the deeper squads on the hills and cobbles. Some people really don't like Waeytens, but he's a good rider on a terrific wage. But since he's so cheap you have to ask yourself where the rest of the wage budget was spent?? Vanbilsen should lead well on the cobbles, but after that this team lacks in the other departments and I can only see them struggling to score enough points.


Volcanica - Fox


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Ahlstrand74606760747379678382596472
Max
32
510k
Quintana68827471777676525166736171
Max
32
480k
Chaves70767968747372546072696468
Max
32
150k
Kump72647561737075717977687168
Max
34
175k
Marin74576565737376677878636669
Max
28
55k
Naud76627364727371746467787564
Max
31
55k
Trillini70647565756973577376706773
Max
31
50k
Herrada66757374727270546569716473
Max
32
55k
Mudarra71687762747071516468626465
Max
31
50k
Villalobos71707464696971606675726865
Max
32
50k
Brenes64767066687565575665616266
Max
34
60k
Herrera64737363687373526166676461
4.15
26
50k
Ries69756961737370586170727561
4.84
24
50k
Amador63776871676465506062646470
Max
36
50k
Zingle71626760687367617474646563
3.17
24
50k
Rojas67677162726969686672696965
3.17
23
50k
Bolor-Erdene77626671717770636473717171
Max
27
50k
Jurado73676967667071686869646670
3.29
27
50k
Huertas70626772717069607273746573
3.00
24
50k
Jimenez Retana67586357656664677275636763
3.20
23
50k
Rivera67716859686968576070706658
3.56
24
50k
Montenegro66646863656867626267656563
1.00
24
50k
Chumil64676766686867556266666766
1.00
22
50k
Rojas66686665676667506467666865
1.00
22
10k
Mendoza67686366696969556266676767
1.46
24
50k
Arias Villanueva69606270696966616268686570
1.32
24
50k
Lopez62676663646663586263606261
1.00
22
10k
Gomez65586258656763586770586158
1.00
22
10k
Samudio69535963696765646566716066
1.34
23
50k
Montenegro61585863636360585858585858
1.00
22
10k


Volcanica reminds me of Tryg of last year with two big time leaders. And while I didn't think a duo of Wellens & Skujins would catapult that team into the top 10, I thought they would stay up and they didn't. This team also has Kump and Chaves who should both be solid contributors, but if either Ahlstrand and Quintana don't perform like they're suppose to, then it will be a hard season I reckon.


Voyagin - Bird


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Kinoshita73728366807773596877737166
Max
31
700k
Shikai72817176747678555767596976
Max
30
275k
Liu74636763766980658080646867
Max
27
235k
Min68797666757770636266696966
Max
26
175k
Duchesne70677768737267566979715168
Max
31
50k
Zhao74586566687474587781567178
Max
27
100k
Lyu66737663737472506373717465
4.31
24
78k
Onodera74666978757471616568646875
Max
27
65k
Shirota68757558696873556378735858
Max
28
70k
Arashiro81606462716773687075786866
Max
27
70k
Rajapakshage72647076717268615069755478
Max
30
50k
Zardini68757666686464677166717371
Max
33
60k
Cheung75596777727469576366647277
Max
31
50k
Plucinski71737271707071596970696970
Max
32
50k
Polnicky70647162726966746268677468
Max
33
50k
Oka71656772707069647575676477
4.53
27
50k
Chen68737062707474566569586362
3.70
26
50k
Yamamoto69707172646667576771706770
4.00
26
50k
Matsuda72656972677363606970606374
3.27
23
50k
Kawasaki69676765657164606167736369
1.48
23
50k
Huera67666761686865616466686562
1.00
23
10k


I don't see Voyagin in a relegation battle like they were last year. Kinoshita is now firmly the best 'pure' puncheur in the division, he has better support around him and the calendar is possibly a bit more friendly for him. Min is also a very nice addition and contrasts Shikai to give Voyagin a good option in most stage races.


Xero Racing


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Areruya72798165767879536876756065
Max
26
530k
Bennett67817665757479586573556365
Max
31
340k
Houle78667569767179657978706969
Max
32
260k
Stannard72727767737573676876726868
4.87
24
130k
Habtemichael67787474747376525966686974
Max
25
125k
Fouche66767369717275626173736569
4.99
24
77k
Nikiema69697562717371657075737163
4.99
25
60k
Van Niekerk76616778737572646167726477
Max
27
52k
Tesfaye Heyi75707367747665556873786672
Max
29
50k
Novardianto76616868707874697379746875
Max
28
53k
Kipkemboi67737557677271556374716859
4.82
24
50k
Van Zyl74717473747472716266736073
Max
31
53k
Vermeersch71626670687163707074677572
1.78
23
170k
Hamza73606660707168607373656463
3.72
25
50k
Schomber73545874667668506969656481
Max
28
65k
Young71566174677271717272657074
Max
31
50k
Strong67676858657268586770606558
1.00
22
50k
Gough68606468656767637172696472
3.14
26
50k
Van Wilder65686868636864606768646667
1.00
22
130k
Braet69606658707163686867626064
1.00
22
10k
Vandenabeele66696759626968606366646859
1.00
22
10k


Xero had to sell a lot of their riders during transfers, but their squad still oozes quality. I might be banking on newly trained Areruya having a season like Beltran did last year, but that's indeed possible.


Zara - Irizar


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Taaramäe71817477737470505670666675
Max
35
550k
Jakobsen74596759757381738080676869
Max
26
320k
Mas69787768747477566077737068
Max
27
275k
Conci71777477767578566368637177
Max
25
155k
Cosnefroy76687178788172696969817478
Max
27
150k
Paez73727768747073587376766568
Max
27
125k
Hofstetter74627064717175737778716866
Max
28
85k
Soler69767174767476545466606177
Max
29
80k
Fernandez66757566726972576066727265
Max
31
60k
Castrillo77666776757272557073716776
Max
26
55k
Thomas73566678757370647479646679
Max
27
85k
Keinath70757271717067555864675971
Max
35
50k
Vichot68637463746564586477807163
Max
34
50k
Finkler67677264716968616670716862
3.04
23
60k
Hesters71606260707367697374636660
3.59
24
50k
Stewart71626968677163697070666770
2.50
23
60k
Zukowsky68636970706969617071776671
3.46
24
50k
De La Cruz Chapulin67656960707268646771716765
1.00
22
60k
Cardona70646273697065626467606573
3.50
25
50k
Miquel67666958707268616365656758
1.00
22
60k
Sam69656569706867586669726870
1.56
23
50k
Vandevelde68586269656565606265686569
1.00
22
100k


LLS didn't have to make a ton of moves during transfers with the team he already had. Still Taaramäe was a great move to add to a flying Jakobsen and now maxed Avenir winner Conci. Despite still having many talents of the team, the depth is quite solid.
Edited by redordead on 22-09-2022 07:57

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
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redordead
2022 PCT prediction


Let's see if I can do any better this time, although the 'method' behind the prediction is pretty much the same as previously.

The ranking below is very much subjective. The coefficient is a relative average score for each team and gives an idea which teams are very evenly matched.

Rank
Team
Coeff.
1
Bralirwa - Stevens
1,30
2
Amaysim Cervélo
1,23
3
Binance
1,13
4
Xero Racing
1,11
5
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
1,09
6
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
1,09
7
Zara - Irizar
1,07
8
Philips - Force India
1,07
9
Kraftwerk Man Machine
1,07
10
Red Bull Zalgiris
1,05
11
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
1,03
12
Voyagin - Bird
1,01
13
Assa Abloy
0,99
14
Cedevita
0,97
15
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
0,95
16
HelloFresh - Lampre
0,93
17
Volcanica - Fox
0,91
18
Minions - Subwoolfer
0,91
19
Indosat Ooredoo
0,89
20
Strava
0,87
21
Sauber Petronas Racing
0,87
22
Crabbe-CC Chevigny
0,86
23
Project: Africa
0,80
24
Trans Looney Tunes
0,74


A few quick thoughts about the ranking:

I think Bralirwa are the title favourites if their big three perform like they should and I think they will. Amaysim is the other team that I think stands out at the top. They can challenge for the title, but those are the two teams I'd expect to see in PT next year.
For the other promotion spots I feel like there are 8 or maybe even 10 teams that are very much in contention.

When it comes to the bottom of the table I think Trans and P: A are the two teams that look a bit more challenged then the others. Of course I thought the same about Indosat last year and they proved me wrong. The bottom half should be pretty tight as well which should make for an interesting battle to stay in PCT.
That concludes my quick and simple PCT preview.

So how wrong do you think I am? Pfft
Edited by redordead on 23-09-2022 07:48

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
AbhishekLFC
Great to have this back and looking forward to the full predictions. Love how last year's ones were either right on the mark or not even close at all! No moderation in there Pfft
 
jandal7
Excited for it Grin
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."

[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
5x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x5
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
2x pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/funniest21.png x2
2x i.imgur.com/TUidkLG.png x2
 
baseballlover312
Looking forward to this one!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/avatar.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/funniest.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/funniest.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/forumthread.png
i.imgur.com/VCXYUyF.png
i.imgur.com/4osUjkI.png
 
hillis91
+1 Smile

If we are predicted down, let's hope it's one of thoose +15 predictions Wink
i.imgur.com/sqJ8APc.png
www.pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2022/jerseydesigner.png
www.pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2022/graphicartist.png
 
redordead
Updated the 2nd post with overviews of the first 8 teams.

Teams 9-16 coming up tomorrow.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mghq2.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/mgmanager21.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
Croatia14
Appreciating the effort and nice overview Smile
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/moty.png
 
redordead
Updated the 3rd post with overviews of the middle 8 teams.

Teams 17-24 coming up tomorrow.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mghq2.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/mgmanager21.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
baseballlover312
Thanks for doing this redordead! I think your assessment is right that we've definitely gone for amount of scorers rather than quality. We'll see how it goes. I was able to keep Aranburu and Jensen mostly separate, but of course that means they are sometimes racing for stages. We'll see if how much that hurts scoring.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/avatar.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/funniest.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/funniest.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/forumthread.png
i.imgur.com/VCXYUyF.png
i.imgur.com/4osUjkI.png
 
Laurens147
Thanks red for the preview! Looking forward to start the season Smile
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
 
redordead
That's it for the teams overview.

I'll have the final prediction up tomorrow.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mghq2.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/mgmanager21.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
AbhishekLFC
Thanks for doing this again in detail. While I do not hold the same thoughts about being in the promotion about my team, I do hope you are right about us and not me.

For a lot of the teams, I think I am in agreement with your assessment, with perhaps Assa Abloy, Strava and Volcanica the ones where I differ to a large extent.
 
TinxiaS
Thanks for the preview. Smile Yeah I really didn't doa good scouting because of timing that it wasnt the best forme when the transfers were.

I hope both main leaders Waeytens and Vanbilsen can connect with my team from past seasson and that all with Gaby can find a solid or ok form.
______________________________________________
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tst.png i.imgur.com/XZ5vU9L.png
 
https://www.facebook.com/Cycling24.7
redordead
Predictions up now.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mghq2.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/mgmanager21.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
hillis91
I hope you are right, all im going to say Pfft
i.imgur.com/sqJ8APc.png
www.pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2022/jerseydesigner.png
www.pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2022/graphicartist.png
 
cunego59
As much as I would like to, it seems there's no avoiding the role of promotion favorite (or at least one of them) Grin Still not sold, but I will second hillis and say that I hope you're right. Thanks for the whole preview!
 
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