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Vuelta al Pais Vasco - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 11-12-2021 08:58
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Classics Specialist
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Thank you ivaneurope for the preview!!!
We're now heading towards the Basque Country for one of the MG's core races that has been on the calendar ever since its inception - Vuelta al Pais Vasco. For a second year in a row this race would be part of the HC calendar and while it isn't a PT or PTHC race that does not mean it isn't any less prestigeous at all. 24 teams from the PCT division will take part in this 6-stage race with the reigning champion Robert Gesink looking to do a three-peat (and 5th overall win) in the hills of the Basque Country.
Though the race will begin like last year with a TTT on the streets of Bilbao - for the sixth consequtive time, the remainder of the race will be different. Stage 2 will see the riders remain in the area of the Basque Country's largest city, while Stage 3 will see the riders leave Bilbao and head south towards Vitoria-Gasteiz. Stage 4 will have the requisite ITT, this time in Lodosa, before returning back to Vitoria-Gasteiz where the peloton will head north towards Eibar with the final stage finishing in Bera-Ibardin near the French border. Giiven the hilly nature of this race, strong puncheurs with solid TT skills are the prime suspects here.
| Rider | MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | ACC | TTT |  Bobridge | 69 | 83 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 80 | **** |  Izagirre | 74 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 64 | ***** |  Gesink | 79 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 62 | ***** |  Dunbar | 77 | 76 | 77 | 74 | 77 | 68 | *** |  Rosskopf | 73 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 71 | 70 | ** |
While Gesink with his balanced MO+HI+TT skillset has chances to take a third straight and fifth overall win here, he'll have an uphill battle on his hands as there are many riders vying for his Basque throne and will do whatever it takes to usurp him. Izagirre, who finished 4th last year is returning home to try and win it after falling short on the podium. 2018 winner Bobridge also returns after missing the last two editions and is believes that his superior HI skill will overcome his MO deficit. Skillset wise Dunbar has the tools to challenge for top honours, while Rosskopf is considered a wildcard pick in this top favorites group.
Other contenders and Stage hunters
| Rider | MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | ACC | TTT | | Bobridge | 69 | 83 | 77 | 74 | 74 | | **** |  Hagen | 68 | 83 | 70 | 78 | 71 | 76 | **** |  Kinoshita | 72 | 83 | 66 | 80 | 77 | 77 | * |  Kelderman | 71 | 82 | 70 | 80 | 75 | 72 | * |  Ponzi | 71 | 82 | 66 | 74 | 69 | 77 | **** |  Van Garderen | 71 | 81 | 68 | 77 | 74 | 78 | * | | Jensen | 70 | 80 | 67 | 77 | 73 | 76 | *** |  Schreurs | 68 | 80 | 66 | 74 | 70 | 72 | ** |  Paulinho | 75 | 80 | 64 | 70 | 72 | 75 | *** |  Bakelants | 71 | 80 | 63 | 75 | 72 | 72 | * |  Prevar | 71 | 80 | 62 | 77 | 70 | 73 | * |  Betancourt | 73 | 80 | 60 | 72 | 71 | 74 | **** |  De Plus | 76 | 79 | 64 | 74 | 73 | 72 | ** | | | Teuns | 75 | 78 | 64 | 73 | 73 | 72 | * |  Moscon | 73 | 79 | 66 | 76 | 77 | 73 | *** |
Though these riders may not be considered top favorites, they could be either fighting for stage win glory or even try to go for the GC. This includes riders like Bobridge, Kelderman, Ponzi, Betancourt and Moscon - the mentioned riders also have a solid TTT squads which could make them dark horse contenders for the GC.
| Team | Top TT | Bottom TT | AVG Rating |  Aker - MOT | 80 | 64 | 72 | *** |  Assa Abloy | 80 | 52 | 69 | * | | Binance Cycling | 77 | 64 | 72 | *** | | Bralirwa - Stevens | 80 | 58 | 70 | ** |  Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 78 | 63 | 72 | *** | | Carrefour - ESPN | 75 | 62 | 69 | * |  Cedevita | 76 | 64 | 71 | ** |  cycleYorkshire | 79 | 61 | 74 | **** | | Duolingo | 80 | 75 | 77 | ***** | | Eurosport x GCN | 76 | 63 | 70 | ** | | Indosat Ooredoo^ | 78 | 73 | 73 | *** | | Jura - Fiat | 78 | 66 | 72 | *** | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | 76 | 64 | 71 | ** | | Minions | 77 | 67 | 74 | **** | | Philips - Force India | 78 | 59 | 69 | * |  Podium Ambition | 79 | 60 | 67 | * | | Polar | 80 | 74 | 77 | ***** | | Project: Africa | 79 | 66 | 75 | **** | | Red Bull Zalgiris | 80 | 60 | 74 | **** | | Sauber Petronas Racing | 71 | 61 | 66 | * | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 78 | 60 | 67 | * | | Team UBS | 80 | 66 | 75 | **** |  Tryg - Ritter Sport^ | 77 | 56 | 64 | * | | Voyagin - Bird^ | 77 | 62 | 69 | * | | ^ - team fielding 7 riders |
The opening stage is a TTT and in those kind of stages teamwork is required, especially when it comes to placing the leader in perfect position for the next stages. Duolingo and Polar have built their teams with the TTT stage in mind which benefits their leaders - Gesink and Izagirre. Though they have the best teams on paper in this stage, it's not a forgone conclusion that one of the two will win it as there are other teams that coulld pose a threat
Going for Individual TT glory
| Rider | TT | | Lammertink | 80 | | Fiedler | 80 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | | Keizer | 80 | | Mullen | 80 | | Viennet | 80 | | Howson | 80 | | Dillier | 80 | | Fraile | 79 | | Oliveira | 79 |
There is also the ITT Stage 4 where riders with TT skills will looking to snatch a stage win. Given that in the Top 10 in TT skills from the startlist 8 of them are with 80 TT it will be anyone's guess who will win this. It could be either Lammertink, Fiedler, Gonzalez Salas, Keizer, or even an unexpected wildcard - this ITT will be unpredictable and the results from them can also have major rammifications on the overall classification.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 11-12-2021 09:03
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World Champion
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It's Oomen time!
(Please let it be Oomen time? Not Oomen working for De Plus Time?)
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 11-12-2021 09:16
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Team Manager
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This could go a ton of different ways for us. Despite being named as a top favorite, I would be surprised if Rosskopf even ends up in the Top 10, but he could make it for sure. Hoping for some decent depth scoring with Uwi and Hadi, and maybe a strong result from Fiedler in the ITT. Looking forward to the race either way, should be very interesting. My money for the GC win is on Gesink and Izagirre.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 11-12-2021 09:24
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
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Let's see what Kelfailman can do. Traditionally the punchers pull out too much time on the hilly stages to neutralize the impact of the TT. Think we have a better TT team than what the table shows, but no one ever knows with PCM anymore how they will go.
Thanks for the preview Ivan and looking forward to the report 
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 11-12-2021 11:26
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Grand Tour Champion
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On paper a race for Uran, but he used up too many racedays already. So Hagen in a race with a TT and TTT. Not sure to expect something for the GC, otherwise stage glory is always an option.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 15:49
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| quadsas |
Posted on 11-12-2021 12:31
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Small Tour Specialist
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Easy double top 5 for us
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 11-12-2021 12:34
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
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Breakaways and XP for this squad. Maybe Alaphilippe can get a good stage result in a reduced finish & we'll see how Catarford rides in the ITT.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 11-12-2021 12:36
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
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Have no idea how this will play out. Riders of every spectrum and ability are here - tt kings like Keizer, kinoshita puncheurs and Izagirre hybrids. Who knows how this will go?
Dunbar *should* be a great shot at a top-5, but Jensen is also here so who knows what the AI will decide. Dunbar is strong enough to keep up with the best puncheurs, so hopefully he can stick with them and Jensen can keep him company. This game really really likes Luchshenko too so hopefully he can find a comfortable spot alongside the aforementioned two. We have a surprisingly alright TTT squad, so am hoping Dunbar can grab the white jersey and a top-5 result with Jensen and Luch placing well in the top-20.
Hopefully we can catch a break and actually be allowed to perform adequately at the least.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 11-12-2021 14:42
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Tour de France Champion
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We don't have any pure puncheurs this year, so for these kinds of races, we had to come about it from a different angle. Usually, when TT's are involved, this was through Warbasse as a stage racer who's not terrible on hills. The profiles are not Ardennes and offer at least a decent shot that mountain will play a real factor.
Interested to see how the Aranburu/Warbasse dynamic plays out here though. Aranburu's skillset is perfect for the climbing since he is good on both mountains and hills. But his TT makes him kind of a nonfactor cause he'll lose a lot in the ITT, or even the TTT. Warbasse on the other hand isn't quite as tailored to this stuff but should theoretically not lose too much time anywhere.
I think in an ideal world we go for Warbasse here, and then let Aranburu free if Warbasse drops out of it. But PCM lists Alex as the leader, so we'll see how they handle that I guess. If we go full on for Alex, I think we'll be sacrificing a lot of minor GC points.
Packed startlist and a lot of directions this could go, so I'm certainly excited. Thanks for the awesome preview ivan!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 11-12-2021 15:32
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Probably focusing too much on (T)TT here, given that only Lienhard might support Moscon in the hills. Given how he's done so far, he'll be completely useless again, though.
So let's hope the Top6 riders will pull the TTT team, then we might get the result we need to set up Moscon for a decent GC. If the stages are ridden hard enough, his Hi/Mo/Res combo could net him a Top 10. Not expecting it though, after how things turned out so far ^^
Thanks for the preview, and good luck everyone! (including ourselves ^^)
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| aidanvn13 |
Posted on 11-12-2021 15:56
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Classics Specialist
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Well, race is on. Tough competition and I have my doubt over whether Bobridge will hold up with his mountain stat, but we definitely have to give it a good old-fashioned try! We shouldn't lose much to Izagirre and Gesink in the TTT so all to play for.
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| ember |
Posted on 11-12-2021 16:27
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Team Leader
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This should on paper suit us very well. Though, we are not clear favourites on any stage, but I still think we should be able to fight. It all depends what the AI gives us, though. I think we should be stronger than three stars in the opening TTT, and depending on who survives there, we could fight for a good overall here, with Laengen and Amezawa, I think. The final two stages look really difficult, perfect for Amezawa, meaning his losses in the TT could be neutralized and give him a top 10 GC, if he is allowed to ride his own chances on the final two stages. Really hope we get to see the Amezawa we saw in the Continental Championship preseason, and not the one we have seen in points scoring races so far.
Laengen can hopefully land a top 10 GC too, or even more, as he could sit very, very high in the GC after the TT. Not sure how well he can cope with the final two stages, but in such a field, with not that many hybrids, he could do well, I think. |
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| beagle |
Posted on 11-12-2021 18:01
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4200
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Thanks Ivan for great preview.
Izagirre is on fire recently, hopefully he will continue shining on his home soil. We brought strong TT line-up, but I' m a little worried of his support in hills. Soler and De Luna must show their best to protect lon.
Obviously, really stacked field came to Basque country with so many big names in start list. I wish to all of us good AI and let the best wins!
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| redordead |
Posted on 12-12-2021 07:20
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Grand Tour Specialist
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We've been able to do well at this race the last two years in different ways and different lineups. So I'm excited to see what we can manage this year. Hoping for some depth GC scoring and maybe some KOM hunting.
Thanks for the preview ivan
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 12-12-2021 09:03
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World Champion
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I'm really ok with that 24 second gap!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 12-12-2021 09:41
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Team Leader
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Good job by the guys to take this one. Crucial for our point-scoring strategy in events like these. Now onto the unpredictability of hilly stages with a so far underperforming Gesink at the helm.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 12-12-2021 10:22
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Congrats Gustav! Dominant win. Polar ballsing that up completely, their team here is immense so that must hurt to lose. Grainy has been disappointing so far, but I think with the yellow jersey on his shoulders he’s gonna do pretty well.
Solid ride from us considering we’re down a rider. Really strange though that a lot of teams leader/s finished a bit behind their respective team? Quite odd.
Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 12-12-2021 10:54
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Grand Tour Champion
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Very good Minions!
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 12-12-2021 12:47
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Directeur Sportif
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Worse than I was hoping for, and some way to make up for Kelderman. Hope he can do it. Since we're this far off, will we actually join breaks for a change?
Congrats to Gustav and thanks for the report
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 12-12-2021 15:05
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Not only not a good time, but Warbasse and Aranburu both lose a few extra seconds since they were after the 5. We didn't expect anything great here, but top half seemed very reasonable. 15th is not how I'd like to start.
Eden95 wrote:
Solid ride from us considering we’re down a rider. Really strange though that a lot of teams leader/s finished a bit behind their respective team? Quite odd.
In every other kind of stage there's at least a 7 second minimum to be counted as a separate group in PCM. No idea why in this engine's TTT's you can be counted as seconds behind even when you do finish on the wheels of your riders ahead.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
