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Paris-Nice Discussion
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| redordead |
Posted on 24-11-2021 16:05
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Grand Tour Specialist
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 Paris-Nice 
Note: There will be a profile picture with KOMs for each stage report
Welcome to the 15th edition of Paris-Nice the sun's race. The race again falls in a triple PT clash which means a lot of the best riders can't make it. Of course the start list is still far from being bad. This year's route is mostly hilly with a couple of flat stages and two ITTs. But one of the flat stages has a noticeable climb in the final part and two hilly stages could still end in a bunch sprint. The longer ITT on stage 7 has an uphill section along with the harder final two stages should mean the MO stat will be important.
With that said let's look at some of the favourites:
| MO | HI | TT | RS | AC | PR |  Phinney | 85 | 77 | 83 | 74 | 75 | 83 |  Bobridge | 69 | 83 | 77 | 74 | 80 | 77 |  Wirtgen | 78 | 75 | 80 | 75 | 72 | 80 |  Gidich | 76 | 80 | 73 | 77 | 75 | 73 |  De Bie | 71 | 84 | 72 | 76 | 75 | 68 |  Sepulveda | 75 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 73 | 76 |  Choi | 81 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 68 | 74 |  Dennis | 74 | 75 | 78 | 75 | 68 | 81 |  Powless | 77 | 72 | 78 | 74 | 71 | 78 | | Geoghegan Hart | 78 | 74 | 76 | 74 | 69 | 76 |
Get ready for it, we're going to talk about Taylor Phinney a lot. The Isostar rider is the clear favourite here with his combination of time-trialing and climbing. Anything other than him winning would be a surprise, but let's see who can challenge him?
His top competition might come from a wildcard team as Bobridge returns to challenge the PT. He's one of the top puncheurs, he can time-trial very well and hopefully for him can handle all the elevation. Wirtgen on the other hand can certainly climb and he's an excellent TTer. Gidich is a bit of a jack of all trades, but he will expect to lose some time in the TTs.
De Bie is the best puncheur, but his other skills, while not bad, simply aren't on the same level. Still he'll be hoping for stage wins and a good final GC. Sepulveda is another hybrid and he showed in Tasmania that these types of races suit him well. Choi is a strong and dependable stage racer. Climbing won't be an issue as long as he can follow the attack. Same can be said for Dennis who will look to profit from the time-trials. The same can be said for Gazelle duo of Powless and Geoghegan Hart.
| FL | HI | RS | SP | AC |  Eislers | 79 | 67 | 78 | 82 | 78 | | Van der Lijke | 73 | 76 | 71 | 82 | 79 |  Houle | 78 | 75 | 71 | 79 | 78 | | Afewerki | 73 | 64 | 70 | 79 | 80 | | Contreras | 72 | 68 | 75 | 78 | 80 |  Stepniak | 72 | 67 | 70 | 79 | 79 |  Ackermann | 72 | 77 | 71 | 77 | 80 |  Banaszek | 72 | 64 | 72 | 77 | 79 |  Silva | 75 | 68 | 70 | 77 | 78 |  Aregger | 73 | 71 | 71 | 78 | 77 |
Eislers is the strongest pure sprinter here and will want to bag at least one stage win. His main rival should be Van der Lijke who can match the Latvians top speed. But the Dutchman will also look to make an impact on the easier hill stages, with Houle and Ackermann having the same idea. Afewerki, Contreras and Stepniak are probably the next few in line to try and surprise with a big result in a sprinter field that is not the toughest.
| TT | RS | PR | | Phinney | 83 | 74 | 83 |  Vlatos | 81 | 71 | 81 | | Dennis | 78 | 75 | 81 | | Schomber | 74 | 76 | 81 | | Wirtgen | 80 | 75 | 80 |  Paillot | 80 | 74 | 80 | | Yatsevich | 80 | 81 | 80 | | Ganna | 78 | 79 | 80 |  Würtz | 82 | 78 | 79 |
Phinney is the main GC favourite, but also the favourite for the opening prologue and he'll surely want to take the race lead from the off. The main contenders should be Vlatos who is here solely for the TTs. Dennis who is a great allrounder and might have GC ambitions as well and prologue specialist Schomber. Wirtgen is another GC rider who will look to gain time on others on day 1. Paillot, Yatsevich, Ganna and Würtz are riders that are also capable of upsetting the American and are here primarily for the TTs.
| MO | TT | RS | PR | | Phinney | 85 | 83 | 74 | 83 | | Würtz | 67 | 82 | 78 | 79 | | Wirtgen | 78 | 80 | 75 | 80 | | Paillot | 70 | 80 | 74 | 80 | | Vlatos | 52 | 81 | 71 | 81 | | Dennis | 74 | 78 | 75 | 81 | | Powless | 77 | 78 | 74 | 78 | | Oliveira | 74 | 78 | 75 | 78 | | Hepburn | 64 | 79 | 77 | 79 | | Yatsevich | 55 | 80 | 81 | 80 | | Ganna | 69 | 78 | 79 | 80 |
Phinney should be top favourite for the longer time-trial as well, but Würtz did win in Tasmania and comes in with confidence he can again rain on Phinney's parade. Given that there is some climbing on the course Wirtgen will look to also challenge the top 2, it's also a big GC stage for him. Paillot is another rider who could excel, while Vlatos needs to find his climbing legs or he might struggle to keep up with the others.
Full startlist:
Spoiler | De Bie | Sean | Aegon - Peroni | | Barbin | Enrico | Aegon - Peroni | | Hepburn | Michael | Aegon - Peroni | | Zardini | Edoardo | Aegon - Peroni | | Schädlich | Lucas | Aegon - Peroni | | Minali | Riccardo | Aegon - Peroni | | Erdenebat | Bilguunjargal | Aegon - Peroni | | Robeet | Ludovic | Aegon - Peroni | | Chatarunga | Sameera | Amaysim Cervélo | | Storer | Michael | Amaysim Cervélo | | Schreurs | Hamish | Amaysim Cervélo | | Bayly | Cameron | Amaysim Cervélo | | Scotson | Callum | Amaysim Cervélo | | Monk | Cyrus | Amaysim Cervélo | | Ghyselinck | Jan | Amaysim Cervélo | | Wohler | Alex | Amaysim Cervélo | | Wirtgen | Tom | EA Vesuvio | | Van der Lijke | Nick | EA Vesuvio | | Valter | Attila | EA Vesuvio | | Smit | Willie | EA Vesuvio | | Pelikan | Janos | EA Vesuvio | | Gall | Felix | EA Vesuvio | | Wirtgen | Luc | EA Vesuvio | | Gunnlaugsson | Kristofer | EA Vesuvio | | Eislers | Ingus | Evonik - ELKO | | Neilands | Krists | Evonik - ELKO | | Dzamastagic | Mark | Evonik - ELKO | | Sergis | Kaspars | Evonik - ELKO | | Tvetcov | Serghei | Evonik - ELKO | | Navardauskas | Ramunas | Evonik - ELKO | | Paillot | Yoann | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Guerreiro | Ruben | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Tiller | Rasmus | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Cort Nielsen | Magnus | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Bol | Cees | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Affini | Edoardo | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Van Niekerk | Aidan | Festina - OAKA | | Vlatos | Panagiotis | Festina - OAKA | | Jang | Gyung Gu | Festina - OAKA | | Ioannidis | Nikolaos | Festina - OAKA | | Kiriakidis | Ioannidis | Festina - OAKA | | Kopfauf | Markus | Festina - OAKA | | Teunissen | Mike | Gazelle | | Powless | Neilson | Gazelle | | Geoghegan Hart | Tao | Gazelle | | Potts | Marc | Gazelle | | Vervaeke | Louis | Gazelle | | Konrad | Patrick | Gazelle | | Kruijswijk | Steven | Gazelle | | Kangert | Tanel | Gazelle | | Dennis | Rohan | Generali | | Oliveira | Nelson | Generali | | Brown | Nathan | Generali | | Kung | Stefan | Generali | | Van Baarle | Dylan | Generali | | Dyball | Benjamin | Generali | | Malori | Adrian | Generali | | Würtz | Mads | Grieg-Maersk | | Brkic | Benjamin | Grieg-Maersk | | Resell | Erik Nordsaeter | Grieg-Maersk | | Omarsson | Ingvar | Grieg-Maersk | | Korsaeth | Truls Engen | Grieg-Maersk | | Belevics | Arturs | Grieg-Maersk | | Rodriguez | Oscar | Huski Chocolate | | Hofstede | Lennard | Huski Chocolate | | Tolhoek | Antwan | Huski Chocolate | | Meeus | Jordi | Huski Chocolate | | Champoussin | Clement | Huski Chocolate | | Erdenesuren | Munkhtulga | Huski Chocolate | | Sepulveda | Eduardo | ISA - Hexacta | | Contreras | Emiliano | ISA - Hexacta | | Zakarin | Ilnur | ISA - Hexacta | | Sendeku | Getachew | ISA - Hexacta | | Sagiv | Guy | ISA - Hexacta | | Restrepo | Jhonatan | ISA - Hexacta | | Dlamini | Nicholas | ISA - Hexacta | | Ferreyra | Diego Agustin | ISA - Hexacta | | Phinney | Taylor | Isostar - Specialized | | Bardet | Romain | Isostar - Specialized | | Bernas | Pawel | Isostar - Specialized | | Riabushenko | Aliaksandr | Isostar - Specialized | | Rikunov | Petr | Isostar - Specialized | | Rickaert | Jonas | Isostar - Specialized | | Sweeny | Harry | Isostar - Specialized | | Gidich | Yevgeniy | King Power | | Quita | Ronnilan | King Power | | Mano | Yuttana | King Power | | Fung | Ka Hoo | King Power | | Beniusis | Justas | King Power | | Herregodts | Rune | King Power | | Mostov | Zeke | King Power | | van der Poel | Mathieu | Mapei | | Silva | Nihal | Mapei | | Quintana | Dayer | Mapei | | Rohendi | Teten | Mapei | | Palyi | Csaba | Mapei | | Predatsch | Kevin | Mapei | | Choi | Ki Ho | MOL | | Theuns | Edward | MOL | | Domagalski | Karol Andrzej | MOL | | Dina | Marton | MOL | | Hussein | Mujtaba | MOL | | Lovassy | Krisztian | MOL | | Filutas | Viktor | MOL | | Cerny | Josef | Moser - Sygic | | Stepniak | Grzegorz | Moser - Sygic | | Turek | Daniel | Moser - Sygic | | Hnik | Karel | Moser - Sygic | | Osorio | Juan | Moser - Sygic | | Danacik | Jakub | Moser - Sygic | | Bobridge | Jack | Project: Africa | | Afewerki | Elias | Project: Africa | | Coppel | Jerome | Project: Africa | | Pidcock | Thomas | Project: Africa | | Girdlestone | Keagan | Project: Africa | | Van Heerden | Eddie | Project: Africa | | Main | Kent | Project: Africa | | Tesfom | Sirak | Project: Africa | | Ackermann | Pascal | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | Prevar | Oleksandr | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | Laas | Martin | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | Budyak | Anatoliy | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | Kanepejs | Deins | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | Bratashcuk | Andrii | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | De Bondt | Dries | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | Aniolkowski | Stanislaw | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | Ganna | Filippo | Team Puma - SAP | | Conci | Nicola | Team Puma - SAP | | Aregger | Marcel | Team Puma - SAP | | Cavagna | Remi | Team Puma - SAP | | Steimle | Jannik | Team Puma - SAP | | Zwiehoff | Ben | Team Puma - SAP | | Schinnagel | Johannes | Team Puma - SAP | | Baterdene | Narankhuu | Team Puma - SAP | | Vlasov | Alexander | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Yatsevich | Kiril | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Kanerva | Joni | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Vorobev | Anton | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Banaszek | Alan | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Zubov | Matvey | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Dal Col | Andrea | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Strakhov | Dmitry | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Houle | Hugo | Xero Racing | | Tesfaye Heyi | Henok | Xero Racing | | Novardianto | Jamalidin | Xero Racing | | Stannard | Robert | Xero Racing | | Nikiema | Bachirou | Xero Racing | | Schomber | Nils | Xero Racing | | Errazkin | Xuban | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Narvaez | Jhonatan | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Russo | Clement | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Cherkasov | Nicolay | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Eaton | Daniel | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Cavendish | Mark | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Verona | Carlos | Zwift Pro Cycling |
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| SotD |
Posted on 24-11-2021 17:26
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
Joined: 29-11-2006
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I guess we need to be chasing some luck here. Vlatos need to finally deliver something in the opening prologue, and maybe an outside chance for a decent result for Kopfauf.
Aidan van Niekerk is likely our go-to-guy in terms of stagesucces, but I reckon it will be a bit difficult. Seing the startlist makes me worry about Grand-Duché. That race must be packed!
Ioannidis could do a reasonable result, but I suspect he needs a very solid prologue to actually give a shit. He usually doesn't care about GC which is annoying.
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| roturn |
Posted on 24-11-2021 19:01
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Team Manager
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Obviously not the best timetrialists but easily one of the best puncheurs. Really need De Bie to really ride aggressive in the hills trying to get rid of many better timetrialists.
Other than that maybe a good day in the TT by my duo. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 24-11-2021 19:46
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
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Phinney will be tough to shake, but hope we can get a good TT and a good prologue from Würtz. Other than that, it's just about hanging on decent, trying to get in some breaks and see where the race takes us.
Should be interesting to see how big the gaps will be in the hillier stages. Doesn't look that hard on the profiles ...
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| knockout |
Posted on 24-11-2021 21:18
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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First of all, this route might be the worst route change in PT this season. I strongly feel that the second stage race in a triple header should be for the puncheurs and between the second TT, that big mountain on s7 and making all hilly stages downhill finishes, im in no way surprised that so few puncheurs opted to race here.
Phinney here is no surprise, i actually kinda hoped that more stage racers like especially Tenorio would take the risk to go here. Considered Taaramae here too but didnt fit his RDs well.
But i gotta say that i hope that the puncheurs will take this one. A win by Bobridge, De Bie or Gidich despite the route would be pretty cool.
This is part 2 of my most questionable planning decision this season. Sending Eislers here instead of to Qatar felt like a smart decision at the time but seeing the disastruous Qatar AI and randomness, i probably should have taken that chance and hope for an upset.
The idea why i sent him here was that it was obvious that the sprinter startlist would be weak af here and i gambled on the idea that some of the hilly downhill finishes could end in a mass sprint and that his mo/hi/res combo would be perfect to make the reduced groups. The idea was that the leadout could be Tvetcov - Dzamastagic - Eislers but Tvetcov might be treated as a GC leader too.
But if the idea doesnt work out, my planning could look really foolish.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 24-11-2021 23:39
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
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Well it may not be the classic hill stage race within the triple, but that's undoubtedly a good thing for me. Wirtgen's GC hopes very much enhanced, while potentially some more opportunity for Van der Lijke.
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| aidanvn13 |
Posted on 25-11-2021 06:28
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
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I wonder what Bobridge will be able to do here. Some stages look a bit mountainy and he has limited support as part of the squad is here for the XP gain.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-11-2021 09:19
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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Let's hope Phinney gets back to his normal self in the ITTs, then we're bound to have a great race. He's looked good in uphilll finishes with his sprint stat, so this should be a fun race for him. Let's hope he can dominate as we hope he does, then the trip was worthwile and skipping GTs again pais off.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 14:33
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| SotD |
Posted on 25-11-2021 14:08
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
Joined: 29-11-2006
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Vlatos as underwhelming as always, but atleast he scored 2 points this time. Both Ioannidis and Kiriakidis did alright though. Hopefully they can survive the hills to fight for some depth points.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 25-11-2021 14:22
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
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Shockingly poor from Würtz, but we've had the TT gods with us so far this season. To miss out on a TT that's a bit too short for Würtz and on a day where Phinney looked unbeatable is not that bad. The next TT should suit him better, so hopefully he can be closer to Phinney there.
Now let's join the breaks, guys!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-11-2021 17:37
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Directeur Sportif
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Yes! Great to come back like this in the 2nd TT. Now let's hope Phinney can dominate from here on to justify this planning.
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-11-2021 19:29
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Shocking 
Congrats cro!
Tomorrow is where it really counts for us. |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 26-11-2021 07:09
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World Champion
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Guess I should have loaned out Houle and kept Pidcock, he’s obviously a better sprint option  So stupid
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| knockout |
Posted on 26-11-2021 07:55
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Yeeeeesssssssss. I'm so glad about this victory. First of all, it's the first sign that Eislers can deliver with his new max stats. Secondly, we won the stage despite having a leadout train which is really promising too. And finally, I'm just super glad that the decision to go to P-N over Qatar doesnt leave me entirely empty-handed 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| roturn |
Posted on 26-11-2021 08:18
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De Bie did well in his prologue. Already shown by only losing a very few seconds to both 79 time trialists, who got like 40-70 area...disappointing performance by those.
Robeet seems to like breakaways which is nice to see as this alraedy gave some KoM points this season for a late support signing only.
Nice to see Minali sprinting as well. Not having high expectations or any points by him. But always nicer to see someone going for top15 than not sprinting at all.
Congrats Croatia and Evonik. 2 favourite wins is nice to see.
And thanks for the reports. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 26-11-2021 08:47
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A bit disappointing to be marked as 5th when it looked like a clear 3rd on the line. At least Wirtgen has now positioned himself into the U25 jersey.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 26-11-2021 09:17
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Classics Specialist
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Very nice to see the favourite win in two stages in a row indeed. Congratulations to Croatia and knockout!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 26-11-2021 09:21
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Team Manager
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Annoyed that your leadout doesn't work? Just get yourself a Dzamastagic, easy fix
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| tastasol |
Posted on 26-11-2021 13:28
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
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Congrats on the win, knockout! Plan perfectly executed.
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| SotD |
Posted on 26-11-2021 15:00
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
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Nice to see Eislers with the win. Congrats mate!
Nothing for us but that was to be expected.
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