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Tour of South Africa - Discussion
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 27-03-2021 08:13
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 Tour of South Africa
Welcome to South Africa, welcome for the ninth edition of this African stage race! Last year’s winner  Bellis, who also won the first edition in 2012, couldn’t make it back. One rider who also didn’t make it back after having won the race twice already is  Ulissi. All the other previous winners are already retired or won’t be here, so we’ll see a new rider being victorious in South Africa! Not a lot of riders at the startlist of this hilly stage race that includes one team time trial, let’s have a look at the best puncheurs.
| MON | HILL | STA | RES | REC |  Claeys | 66 | 82 | 72 | 66 | 67 |  Di Maggio | 65 | 82 | 73 | 68 | 65 |  Buchmann | 76 | 81 | 73 | 74 | 74 |  Borges | 70 | 80 | 75 | 73 | 70 |  Moscon | 73 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 75 |  Gautier | 67 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 69 |  Juul-Jensen | 70 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 71 |  Anuar Aziz | 65 | 78 | 73 | 68 | 66 | | Kanerva | 64 | 78 | 75 | 69 | 70 |  Meurisse | 74 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 74 | | Teklit | 70 | 77 | 75 | 72 | 70 | | Dieteren | 70 | 77 | 75 | 70 | 68 | | Mutsumine | 69 | 77 | 73 | 70 | 68 | | Costa | 68 | 77 | 68 | 67 | 67 |  Felline | 66 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 71 | | Pellaud | 65 | 77 | 74 | 68 | 71 |  Villella | 65 | 77 | 72 | 74 | 67 | | Roux | 64 | 77 | 77 | 70 | 68 |  Seibeb | 75 | 76 | 70 | 69 | 71 | | Goh | 74 | 76 | 74 | 74 | 74 |  Robov | 72 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 70 |  Lavery | 71 | 76 | 75 | 71 | 68 |
It’s no surprise to see Claeys and Di Maggio here, as this should be a stage race for the pure puncheurs, where the climbing skills of the riders seem to matter a bit less than usually. Nevertheless, their biggest competitor might be Buchmann, who knows very well how to climb. Borges is here for Duolingo, the Portuguese owl is also quite alright on the longer climbs, although not at the same level of the German of course.
Coppa Placci winner Moscon is the first CT rider on the list, and he is also known for his versatility. Between the Valio duo of Gautier and Kanerva we find two more CT riders who will be aiming for a good GC: Carlsberg’s Juul-Jensen and Sauber’s Anuar Aziz.
Roma Maxima’s winner Meurisse is also known for being a reliable rider both on the longer and shorter climbs, while Teklit is Aramco’s hope for a top-10. Then we find several domestiques, while other interesting names in this list include Felline, Villella, Seibeb, Robov and Lavery. Some of those will be leaders, others will have a free role and try to get daily success, while Robov and Lavery might even have to work for Konig and Jaramillo.
Although the five road stages are hilly, there is always a possibility of a (reduced) peloton having to sprint for the victory. Let’s see who the fastest riders should be.
| SPR | HILL | STA | RES | REC | | Van Heerden | 80 | 66 | 71 | 64 | 73 | | Houle | 79 | 75 | 76 | 71 | 79 | | Cisse | 78 | 63 | 73 | 67 | 78 | | Kreder | 77 | 75 | 75 | 71 | 77 | | Lobato del Valle | 77 | 67 | 73 | 72 | 72 | | McEvoy | 75 | 76 | 75 | 70 | 71 | | Felline | 74 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 71 | | Batmunkh | 74 | 65 | 72 | 72 | 65 | | Weiss | 73 | 76 | 75 | 70 | 69 | | Novardianto | 73 | 68 | 70 | 78 | 74 | | Archbold | 73 | 62 | 72 | 71 | 70 |
While home rider Van Heerden is the fastest on paper and some other decent sprinters present are Cisse and Lobato del Valle, those are not the best puncheurs. There are several decent puncheurs who are also quite fast at the finish line, watch out for Houle, Kreder, McEvoy, Felline and Weiss.
The team time trial could be the deciding factor for the overall win. Last year cycleYorkshire won it, and they had the overall winner in Jonathan Bellis. In the previous four editions the TTT winner did not have the yellow jersey at the end though. Let’s look at the team’s TT-skills.
| Team | Average TT | Full squad | | Mapei | 75,5 | Yes |  Glanbia Foods | 72,9 | Yes | | Minions | 72,9 | Yes | | Duolingo | 72,5 | Yes | | Xero Racing | 71,9 | Yes | | Valio - Viking | 70,1 | Yes | | Carlsberg | 69,8 | No (6) | | Adastra N Hell | 69,5 | Yes | | Project: Africa | 68,8 | Yes | | Centovalli | 67 | Yes | | Campari Asahi | 66,5 | Yes |  Andorra Cycling | 66,1 | Yes | | Nordstrom | 66,1 | Yes | | Aramco DP | 65,8 | Yes | | Sauber Petronas | 64,5 | Yes | | Strava | 62,5 | Yes | | Team Europcar | 61,8 | Yes |
Mapei the clear favourite here, while Glanbia Foods and Minions should be battling for the podium as well. The CT team doesn’t have a GC favourite, but Mapei has Buchmann and Minions have Claeys. While Duolingo and Xero Racing also bring strong teams for Borges and Meurisse, Strava and Team Europcar seem to be battling for the last place. The organisation has promised to make the TTT parcours flatter than last year, hopefully this will indeed be the case.
That’s it for now, folks. The only thing left for me to do is to give you the full startlist, the only thing left for the riders to do is to eat some boerewors and melktert and maybe win a stage and/or the GC!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 27-03-2021 08:19
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World Champion
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Very hopeful we can once more overperform in our home race. Not expecting anything like the last two years (2 stage wins, spell in yellow, 8th GC and then 1 stage win, spell in yellow, 4th GC iirc), but hope we can give the fans something to shout about still  Thanks for the preview Nemo and looking forward to the reports 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 27-03-2021 09:55
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Nice to see Moscon very high up in the puncheurs list, didn't really expect that. We'll suffer in the TTT, that's for sure, but maybe that uphill section will still suit us, and there's hope that Moscon can bring home some great stage results - and maybe even a decent GC placing. I could imagine stage 5 to be extremely selective - if ridden hard from the gun. And then the climbing skills could indeed come into play.
We also bring Cissé, just in case. But we also have quite some guys who are decent on the hills and could go attacking (although we haven't done so often this year), especially Thièry as a good sprinter could get some nice stage results.
Thanks for the preview, Nemo, and good luck & have fun everyone!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 27-03-2021 10:33
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Claeys somehow survived this race last year, and now we have a better TTT setup. Should hopefully be a good result for him, but in any case we still have Haga who showed in Pais Vasco he can handle this as well.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 22:12
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 27-03-2021 11:33
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Hoping for a Xero race, stage 5 with it's mountain character should suit Meurisse and the opening stages look perfect for Houle on paper. Let's hope the guys can deliver!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 27-03-2021 15:56
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Tour de France Champion
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After seeing how useless Juul-Jensen was in PCT last year, I took a measured risk sending him here. I needed to use my C1 racedays somehow though, and this seemed like the best opportunity since at the time I wanted to use AKA in C2HC (mistake). Judging by the startlist, we're in a better position than I thought. I'm not expecting to win or anything obviously, but we should be good enough to at least get decent positioning and try - which was something JJ had a hard time doing last year.
Unfortunately, our TTT squad relies on Warbasse and Eg, who could obviously not sacrifice race days to be here. That means we are likely to lose significant time on stage 4. Not to mention, we have 2 fewer riders than every other team. But that's the consequence of having 18 riders and 4 stags... and then sending 8 to Post Danmark Rundt...
Could have sent a sprinter here, but didn't want to do anything that might temper JJ's aggression. I'm counting on him attacking and making stuff happen. He doesn't really have any hills support with our squad limitations, so he's gonna have to freelance it and ride his own race. We'll see what he can do. Hopefully he's competitive. 2017-2018 JJ would be nice right now.
Buchmann seems to me the very clear favorite here. TTT + huge mtn advantage + great hill. Shouldn't even be too much of a struggle.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 27-03-2021 18:42
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Team Leader
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It seems we have a good shot, but in reality the mountain-stat could become a hurdle too tough for Borges to overcome. Also, despite having a good TT average it's a split squad from us: puncheurs who can't TT and TTist who can't climb, which isn't really what this race asks for.
Anyway I think we could fight for a podium/top5. Let's see what's in store.
Good luck everyone and thanks Nemolito!
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 28-03-2021 06:43
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Really need a strong performance here from Teklit with Ulissi not present. Hopefully for the team, Teklit and McEvoy work well together for stage results and some GC points. We’ll struggle in the TTT but hopefully it means we’ll have a few riders in the breakaways.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 28-03-2021 10:40
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What the hell?  Had high hopes for this stage but wasn't expecting it to be Debesay delivering, but I'll take it of course. What a crazy crazy sprint that was by him from 100m behind the front and behind the wheels to take it in style His second stage win for us in this race after his solo on Stage 6 two years ago, shows his versatility in two such differing scenarios.
Now to just pass yellow to Houle tomorrow, hold and extend on Stage 3, lose a little bit in the TTT and shepherd one of our top trio into the top 5, one into the top 10, and one into the top 15 by the final GC. Easy, right? 
Spoiler The pure ACC of Debesay and Borges beating the favourites in a hill sprint. What is this, PCM15? 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 28-03-2021 10:54
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Obviously mixed feeling. Claeys looked good but then fell away, at least fifth is what I expect from him, but JvR (unluckily) and Haga losing time is pretty bad for the depth points.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 28-03-2021 11:41
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Awesome result, congrats jandal7! |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 28-03-2021 15:11
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Really bad stage for us. We're working like crazy, and all we get is a measly 10th place and nobody else in the 1st group. We definitely should let the PCT teams work here, we don't have enough depth to chase and score at the same time.
Plus, Moscon doesn't seem to have found love for C1 races yet. But well, there's still some hope for other (harder) stages, so we'll see...
Thanks for the report, and congrats to jandal on an amazing start to your home race!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 28-03-2021 15:51
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Tour de France Champion
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Pretty nice job by our team to start out!
It was nice to see Belevics in the breakaway. His lack of climbing ability or a sprint made it so he couldn't take any points, KOM, or bonus seconds, but it's always nice to show off the jersey, and he might have offered JJ some respite before the final climb.
Speaking of which, JJ seemed quite up to the task there to get 6th. Obviously not the most selective stage, but he did seem quite strong. He started in not a great position, probably due to his lack of team support, but he followed the wheels well and even got us a couple of stage points.
As the race goes on, I'll be looking for him to be near the front and continue to show his strength. He might need to be a bit more aggressive sicne our TTT will likely hurt him a lot.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-03-2021 17:37
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Great start from Borges. The rest of the team took a day off I. Won't complain about that though.
Congrats on the win jandal!
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 29-03-2021 08:47
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I really fancy the Europcar-start here, really active in breaks, consecutive KOM-leads, top 3 in Team standings, 5 in top 25 GC.
Looks set for a massive point haul (Hadn't it been for the TTT )
The TTT looks horrible for us, so we need to make up quite some ground on the queen stage the day after.
Thank you for the really exciting reports! |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 29-03-2021 09:32
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Grand Tour Champion
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Claeys in the same time as the winner is all he has to do for now, as long as he doesn't get thrown overboard in the TTT. Congrats Fabianski!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 29-03-2021 09:58
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if Xero is doing this well, then this is incredibly weak field, should have came here
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 29-03-2021 15:26
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Kind of a weird way for JJ to race there. Apparently he couldn't match the accelerations around him despite that being his biggest skill. Then he sits on the front and paces when other teams still have multiple riders, and can't follow Meurisse's attack, maybe cause he tired himself out.
We were very lucky that there were no time gaps at the end here, cause he was fading fast. Hopefully today was his bad day, and he'll have an easier time going forward.
Congrats to Fabianski on another great win! Think its pretty definitive that Moscon's sprint is not a crutch at all at this point.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 29-03-2021 19:20
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Great job today by Gianni! So it made sense this time to sacrifice everyone else, although some depth results would still be very welcome. South Africa seems to suit us pretty well, after Freuler won stage 5 last year.
Moscon's bad sprint surely already cost him a few points on flatter finishes, but I guess on those uphill ones - after a pretty tough day - resistence might be what matters a lot, and there's no really a way past him. Great to see that he can already beat some great PCT riders even when untrained, so beware of him next year
It's a pity that there weren't any time gaps in the end, but even now he should not end up lower than 15th - 20th after the TTT. We lost about 3 minutes to the winner last year, and I guess it'll be similar this time. Stage 5 will probably be decisive if we want to get a GC Top 10 here - but let's already see what tomorrow brings
Thanks for the report, Nemo, great job at keeping the suspense up on the final meters! And really impressive job by Xero again!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 29-03-2021 21:32
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Another outstanding performance from Borges, just a shame he couldn't capitalize on that. Anyway it is still a strong result, even though it does't mean much to the GC in the long run.
Massive result from Moscon though. Congrats on that beautiful, even if uncalled for, victory Fabianski!
And lastly thanks for the vivid report Nemo!
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