This thread will be used to post and discuss Season and Monthly Previews, just like last season. The monthly rankings will be posted in a separate thread.
First up, it's time for the Season Previews. Feel free to post any WT and/or CT previews that you may have or intend to come up with in this thread.
Based on a points system there will be a small amount of money awarded for the next season. A maximum of 10 points can be reached. One point will give a budget bonus of 20 in the next season. Each update in the teams thread will give a point. There won't be long essays required, a short update with a few sentences containing the latest results, the upcoming races, a new signed rider or anything noteworthy would be enough. Also considered for this will be posts in this Previews&Statistics thread. A season preview can even give several points: Detailed Season Preview (4 pts), Numbers based Preview (3 pts) You can also look at the monthly previews done by dominox in the 2018 teams thread, these would be exactly what we are looking for.
How to interpret: The formula weighs the AVGs of the top 9 riders per team, so the top rider's AVG carries 9 times the weight of the 9th rider. Column WAVG 20 shows the ranking with this formula, WAVG 19 shows what the formula predicted last season and WT 19 shows the actual WT ranking from last season.
Last year the formula seriously underestimated Liberty Seguros and overestimated Peugeot, so it's far from perfect. But in 2020 it predicts Grupo Argos to defend its title, despite losing Quintana the team has a decent advantage over Allianz. The gaps between the teams starting with Ceramica are tiny. They grow a little larger in the lower half of the table, but only two teams lag behind, Santos and Vegeta.
So while these two returning teams are predicted to relegate again, the other two newcomers, Ceramica and KBC, seem to be in much more comfortable positions. Alitalia will fight for the podium, Filiers disappointed last season but the prediction is even better this year, while Italo dropped back. However, the team will beat the prediction again thanks to its depth, 16 riders with an AVG of 75.7+, no other team comes close.
The formula rates BP and Liberty Seguros better, Peugeot clearly lower than last season, the other teams remain pretty much where they were a year ago. CCC and Credit Suisse seem to be fighting for the last spot for survival, but both teams have clearly improved and a very close to the rest of the field.
Here's a comparison of the WAVG9s for the seasons 2018 to 2020. The top 3 teams haven't changed much, but the rest of the field has continuously improved.
This year I'll do the very shortest but hopefully still informative preview with a quick look at every team. I recorded the most important signings and departures (I'm sure I missed a few), the stars and prospects and any other information I found worth noting, followed by the stats of the best riders in every terrain.
Alitalia
Signings: Goos, Sergent, Dennis
Departures:
Stars: Demare, Malori, Ludvigsson, Adam Yates
Prospects:
MON
79
77
77
76
75
73
HIL
77
76
76
76
75
75
COB
76
74
74
73
73
72
SPR
81
77
75
74
74
73
TT
80
78
77
77
76
75
Allianz
Signings:
Departures:
Stars: Barguil, Pinot, Coquard, Kristoff
Prospects: Alemayo
Other: 6 riders with AVG 68.4 or lower
Thanks Ripley! Good to get some overview over the different teams. Being rated last of the Italian teams is surprising. Didn't realize Alitalia was so strong by now.
I think the WAVG rates the teams quite well, but of course factors like the PCM randomness and race planning can't be taken into account, which explains the few bigger variations from it I guess.
Vegeta doesn't come of well here but with their depth I don't think they should be completely counted off.
Edited by Bikex on 16-02-2021 10:11
If I did a WAVG16 your team would look a lot better, but at least I mentioned Italo's amazing depth. The gaps are smaller than last season, so I don't have much confidence in the prediction. All teams have done their homework, it's going to be an exciting season.
DaveTwoBob has created a model to analyse the WT, CT and U23 teams to come up with a prediction. The model is obviously suspect as it predicts Suntory will not retain the U23 title! Seriously the model has loads of flaws and any similarity between these predictions and real life are purely coincidental
WORLD TOUR
The WT division looks very close with the top 9 teams within 9% of the leading score (and the margin for error in this model is almost certainly higher than that!)
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team come out on top due to second place in Mountains and third in Sprints. Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill – Cipollini are second, they have the best Hills, second Mountains and decent Cobbles. The podium is rounded out by Italo who are decent in all 5 terrains.
The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.
Team
Score
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
Diff
%
1
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
2401
2
8
17
9
3
2
Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill - Cipollini
2395
2
1
11
5
15
-6
0%
3
Italo
2333
6
5
7
3
10
-68
-3%
4
Suntory Lucozade Sport
2284
4
4
8
6
14
-117
-5%
5
Grupo Argos - Quala
2273
6
3
1
11
13
-128
-5%
6
Liberty Seguros
2272
1
2
4
17
16
-129
-5%
7
Baku Synergy Plus
2232
10
5
3
8
7
-169
-7%
8
KBC Godiva
2223
8
5
5
13
6
-178
-7%
9
Team BP
2192
8
12
15
6
1
-209
-9%
10
Alitalia
1927
11
17
2
10
5
-474
-20%
11
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
1918
17
11
11
3
2
-483
-20%
12
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
1850
14
12
8
12
4
-551
-23%
13
Deutsche Bahn
1827
15
14
10
2
7
-574
-24%
14
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
1769
18
8
15
1
9
-632
-26%
15
Credit Suisse
1736
12
8
14
16
11
-665
-28%
16
Sevilla Cycling Team
1620
4
15
13
18
18
-781
-33%
17
Santos - Euskadi
1501
12
16
18
15
11
-900
-37%
18
Vegeta Cycling Team
1318
15
18
6
13
17
-1083
-45%
WT Team Top Rider per Terrain
Team
MO
HIL
TT
COB
SP
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
Warren Barguil
Warren Barguil
Thibaut Pinot
Alexander Kristoff
Bryan Coquard
Ceramica Panaria - Autogrill - Cipollini
Fabio Aru
Michał Kwiatkowski
Michał Kwiatkowski
Tom Van Asbroeck
Tom Van Asbroeck
Italo
Vincenzo Nibali
Alexey Lutsenko
Miguel Martínez
Markos Pintzopoulos
Fulvio Spagnoli
Suntory Lucozade Sport
Romain Bardet
Romain Bardet
Michael Hepburn
Juris Eisaks
Mads Pedersen
Grupo Argos - Quala
Jan Polanc
Jan Polanc
Luke Durbridge
Kenneth Vanbilsen
Julian Alaphilippe
Liberty Seguros
Jesús Herrada
Jesús Herrada
Jesús Herrada
Willem Hofland
Yoeri Havik
Baku Synergy Plus
Ian Boswell
Bauke Mollema
Tom Dumoulin
Daniel Oss
Giacomo Nizzolo
KBC Godiva
Nairo Quintana
Nairo Quintana
Ryan Mullen
Michael Vanthourenhout
Marcel Kittel
Team BP
Rafal Majka
Rafal Majka
Rafal Majka
Ian Stannard
Mark Cavendish
Alitalia
Adam Yates
Quentin Jauregui
Adriano Malori
Sean De Bie
Arnaud Demare
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
Alexandre Geniez
Moreno Moser
Jasha Sütterlin
Sep Vanmarcke
Nacer Bouhanni
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
Tejay Van Garderen
Tejay Van Garderen
Tejay Van Garderen
Patryk Komisarek
Patryk Komisarek
Deutsche Bahn
Joseph Dombrowski
Simon Yates
Lawson Craddock
John Degenkolb
John Degenkolb
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
Tim Wellens
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
Mathias Krigbaum
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
Danny Van Poppel
Credit Suisse
Davide Villella
Davide Villella
Bob Jungels
Salvatore Puccio
Fabio Silvestre
Sevilla Cycling Team
Alberto Contador
Alberto Contador
Alberto Contador
Ahmet Örken
Raymundo Alday
Santos - Euskadi
Jonathan Peiffer
Luca Wackermann
Scott Davies
Mousin Verkuyl
Davide Appollonio
Vegeta Cycling Team
George Preidler
George Preidler
Stefan Küng
Josip Rumac
Márton Farkas
METHODOLOGY
The methodology uses a combination of the absolute quality of the top 3 riders on each terrain plus the relative ranking of each key stat to generate a total team score.
The relative Terrain weightings were calculated from the ICL19 points earned by riders based on their highest primary stat. I did try using a secondary stat but this was heavily skewed to HIL so eventually I ignored it.
General Steps (some details left out)
1. Select the top 3 riders in each team over 5 stats MO, HIL, TT, COB and SP.
2. For each one of the Primary Stats
3. Apply factors of 3,2 and 1 to the stats of the top 3 riders and sum the results to get a Rider Score.
4. Rank the results
5. Multiply Team Count +1 minus Rank (e.g. WT Rank 1 gets 18) with a Terrain Weighting (e.g. MO is higher than TT) to give a Stat Score
6. Add the 5 Stat Scores and the Rider Scores to get a Team Score
The model ignores Depth Scoring, Stage Racing, Classics, TTT, U25, Race Days, Backup Stats and Planning Choices. Possible improvements for next season.
Excellent, very informative, shows the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Like Filiers #1 in COB and #18 in MON, Liberty #1 in MON, #17 in COB. Really weird to see my team rated #1 in SPR, as anybody who read my stories knows I really don't care much for sprinters.
Excellent previews so far! I will be amazed if we finish higher than BP or Filiers, but it's nice to know I might have actually improved the team this season
When I find the time, I'll be posting a breakdown of riders WT points last year, along with a nationality breakdown of each team.
How it works: The formula weighs the AVGs of the top 6 riders per team, the top rider's AVG carries 6 times the weight of the 6th rider.
If the formula could be trusted we'd have three clear promotion candidates. However, the formula predicted Shell and Equinor to do well last season and they couldn't live up to their expectations. Shell might suffer the same fate again, they have four strong riders, but two of them are pure climbers and the other two sprinters, they would have to achieve optimal results to make up for the lack of depth scoring. While Equinor traditionally focus on sprints, which leads to stage wins, but usually not enough points.
I agree with my formula about Brugse Zot, they are promotion candidate number 1. Bosch with their superstar Herklotz are also clear contenders. The formula works best with “balanced” teams and will underestimate Bosch as well as Senechal's VIP Mobile. Two newcomers could also be in the race for promotion, Magnum Madshuis built a good team around Nerz, while Trans Cycling has a few old captains who cover nearly all terrains.
Polestar is set to improve this season and Pedal Africa may well beat the formula's prediction again, there's a lot of potential in this all-African team and I'm sure it will make the WT in a few seasons. VisitUkraine faced a brutal budget cut after a terrible season ending in relegation and the formula only ranks them 13th. But the gaps are very small. For all teams a lot will depend on planning and luck, as always.
I compiled a comparison of the WASVGs from 2018 to 2020. Lucky that I started in 2018, with a WAVG of 76.27 my team was 5th in the ranking, finished 3rd and promoted. The same team would only rank 16th this season!
Here is a quick look at every team, the most important signings and departures, the stars and prospects and any other information I found worth noting, followed by the stats of the best riders in every terrain.
Depends how you look at it I think, as Nerz will mainly be played out in mountain races despite having a high (the highest?) hill stat in the CT. Kreuziger will be his luxe domestique everywhere, but except for some focus races Rui Costa will take another path and be used in the hill stage races with TT's and a lot of hilly classics with either Van Avermaet or Valgren Andersen at his side. If this was a good choice remains left to be seen, but I feel confident that our Portuguese rider will be able to score a decent amount of points
The model indicates four teams are fighting it out for the CT title. Magnum – Madshus are very narrow title favourites. Bosch Cycling Team, Shell Pro Cycling and Brugse Zot - Trek are in the mix for the title with Equinor Pro Cycling Team as outsiders.
However the model does not well handle single dominant riders who cover multiple terrains which means these results could be misleading e.g. Florian Senechal at VIP Mobile
The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.
If Shell Pro Cycling wasn't ran by a complete idiot manager that doesn't know what he's doing in regards to training & planning, they would probably live up to all of your expectations of a podium finish.
I am like the New York Yankees of the ICL, I can sign the good guys and look good on paper, but cannot bring solid results to the table
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
Not really surprised to see a Latinos team high up in the climbing pecking order. It remains to be seen if the team's depth will really pay out - and if Chamorro can live up to his 78Mo, given his rather weak energy stats.
We're however obviously lacking a top puncheur, given that we're only 16th on the hills. I hope we'll still pull off some good results in those races...
While we're lacking a top ITT star as well, we should at least do well in TTTs, as only Polestar and VisitUkraine have a clearly stronger lineup in this discipline.
If we're the 6th strongest team on the cobbles, I'll take that without any hesitation, as we basically just have one decent cobbler... let's see how that lottery goes.
For the sprints, we'll have to see how well train surfing works, as we basically just have two sprinters, with two more in the making in our U23 squad. So we can't really set up a train. But I'm confident Zabel will make good use especially of his hill skills to get us some good results
Thanks to everyone for the work you put into those previews, it's a nice read - especially as a newbie, as it's a good way to get to know the other teams
I think last place is an accurate prediction for my team. We basically just have one very good rider and not much else. I'll try to rank a bit higher next year
Certainly not, Senechal will surely score so many points that your team will do much better. Predicting CT teams is tough because they have a lot of flexibility booking their races and can play to their strengths and mostly avoid their weaknesses. D2b's prediction would be more accurate if you had to race a rigid calendar, like the WT teams have to.
So, first Ripley decides to give my team the stress of battling for a promotion spot, only for DTB to make it worse and say we should actually go for the title. Now, watch me show everybody how it's done by graciously falling outside the top-10
