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Tour Down Under Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-11-2020 18:28
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The Tour Down Under changed the look quite a few times, some years being quite sprinter friendly, some years going for real puncheurs and very often being something for the hilly sprinters.
Similar this year, 4 sprinter stages but two hill stages with the uphill finish in Stirling and even more the famous Old Willunga Hill finish on day 5.
| 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | Stages |  Gautier | 3. | 1. | 4. | 8. | | 5. | | 3 |  Di Maggio | | | 3. | 2. | 1. | | | 1 |  Ulissi | | 2. | 8. | 4. | | 3. | | |  Kump | | | 5. | 7. | | 11. | 11. | 2 |  Schreurs | 15. | 15. | 1. | | | | | 1 | | Dowsett | | | | | | 13. | 1. | 1 |  Borges | 2. | | | | | | | |  Guarnieri | 5. | | | | | | | |  Yates | | 5. | | | | | | |  Edmondson | 6. | 23. | | | | | | |  Prevar | | 8. | | | | | | |
Having a quick lock on the 2020 starters and their most successful runs in the race history. Easily Gautier pops up being not only the most successful from the starters but one of the (if not THE) most successful in the whole race history. He only did win the race once back in 2018 but has 4 more top10 GCs as also 3 stages! That`s quite impressive. Must be said though, that he was usually a PCT rider having the chance to ride the race very often.
Also Di Maggio or Ulissi had multiple top results, later though not having that big win yet which also goes for Kump.
Some big names with 1 GC win each is the GCN duo. While Schreurs did so in 2017 and was doing okay in the last couple seasons, Dowsett has a win back in 2013 with Jaguar before being a semi successful CT puncheur.
Others in the more recent history with a decent palmares here are Borges as runner-up last season as also Guarnieri, Yates, Edmondson or Prevar.
The Puncheurs
| Hi | Sp | Acc | | Hi | Sp | Acc |  Claeys | 82 | 66 | 71 | Dowsett | 80 | 66 | 71 | | Di Maggio | 82 | 65 | 75 | Slagter | 79 | 61 | 71 | | Schreurs | 81 | 71 | 74 | Yates | 79 | 77 | 80 | | Ulissi | 80 | 74 | 75 |  Turgis | 79 | 70 | 77 | | Borges | 80 | 71 | 81 | Edmondson | 79 | 70 | 76 |  Paulinho | 80 | 68 | 75 |  Gebrezgabihier | 79 | 67 | 69 | | Prevar | 80 | 67 | 73 | Gautier | 79 | 67 | 76 | | Waeytens | 80 | 66 | 73 | | | | |
The top 3 are Claeys, Di Maggio and Schreurs. They are rather one dimensional in comparison to some of the others but clearly have the experience as also the needed punch to show up here once again for some.
Ulissi might be the most popular rider on the startlist coming from a successful PT season as new leader for Aramco. He might have a bit more of a sprint than the others, which surely comes handy. He though is equally strong uphill as plenty others.
A bit behind those top favourites Slagter is interesting being the only real hybrid puncheur here (alongside Paulinho), though he comes as support for Di Maggio only forming a strong duo just like the already mentioned GCN duo Schreurs/Dowsett.
And due to the past we must mention Edmondson as also Gautier. Last is one of the oldest here and just declined for the first time. Can he continue his great run in this race or does the decline sees him struggling?
The hill sprinters
| Hi | Sp | Acc | | Hi | Sp | Acc | | Kump | 77 | 81 | 80 |  Kreder | 75 | 77 | 78 |  Houle | 75 | 79 | 78 |  Alaphilippe | 73 | 77 | 77 | | Yates | 79 | 77 | 80 | McEvoy | 76 | 75 | 79 | | Ackermann | 77 | 77 | 80 | | | | |
Kump is having a nice history here, already years ago, this season though might be his strongest appearance at the startline being hugely increased since his Isostar years. Can he get the GC title in 2020?
Other strong uphill sprinters are Houle, Yates, Ackermann and a bit weaker also Kreder, ALaphilippe or McEvoy. Last actually was doing well in the past, too, unmentioned in the beginning.
The Sprinters
| Fl | Sp | Acc | | Fl | Sp | Acc | | Lo Cicero | 72 | 84 | 78 |  Drapac | 71 | 80 | 79 | | Kump | 74 | 81 | 80 | Houle | 78 | 79 | 78 |  Gaviria | 76 | 81 | 84 | Van der Sande | 75 | 79 | 79 | | Vesely | 73 | 81 | 80 | Lander | 77 | 79 | 77 | | Guarnieri | 75 | 81 | 80 | Perera | 71 | 79 | 80 | | Nelson | 72 | 81 | 81 | Aberasturi | 74 | 79 | 78 | | Keukeleire | 72 | 80 | 79 | Stauff | 73 | 79 | 79 | | Silvestre | 78 | 80 | 81 |  Keough | 73 | 79 | 79 | | Bouhanni | 74 | 80 | 77 | Colbrelli | 74 | 79 | 75 | | Mohs | 72 | 80 | 77 | Lay | 73 | 79 | 81 |
Lo Cicero really stands out with his +3 against the others. The backups though are pretty basic for him which might see sprinters such as Kump, newly maxed Gaviria or Guarnieri being the top favourites here. Their strength in high speed finishes might be on a higher level.
Other mentions for Vesely, Nelson (as finally a home rider!) or Silvestre.
The Aussies
In general the Aussies are missing a GC rider in 2020 for this race as they are either riding for Bennelong in the Pro Tour or in case of the recently GC hope McCarthy also in the PT division now while the next best are riding in the CT in Travis Meyer or Calvin Watson without participating.
So their only hope might be the sprints with Nelson, Drapac, Edmondson while Scott and Hindley are still talents with lots to learn.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 04-11-2020 18:54
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Tour de France Champion
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Plenty of firepower for the odd good stage result between Kreder, Roux and the two train stealers Bouhanni and Colbrelli. If anybody wonders that's pretty much the strategy for all season  If Roux or Kreder finish somewhat acceptable in the Top 15 or Top 10 GC it would be even better
Thanks for the excellent preview, looking forward to the action ɹǝpun uʍop
Edited by Shonak on 04-11-2020 18:55
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 04-11-2020 18:55
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Directeur Sportif
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Kump vs. Gaviria and Yates I'd guess. Go Marko! Gaviria is my favorite to win though.
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 04-11-2020 19:08
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Small Tour Specialist
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Holloway, Degenkolb and Guarnieri all did pretty well in last year's edition, so taking a punt on sending Guarnieri here again. We'll go for stage wins and the points jersey, and then any GC result will be a bonus.
Kump is the huge favorite for me, given that he's fast enough to take bonus seconds on the flat stages and capable of gaining time on the other sprinters on the hilly stages. A puncheur can easily run away with it as well, though.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 04-11-2020 19:11
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With the performance of Lander and especially Stauff and Drapac during the 1-day Down Under Classic, I highly doubt we'll be in the hunt for stage wins. Also we didn't sent either Kristoff, Preidler or Konig, so the hopes will lie on Robov and Higuita to at the very least put up a decent performance on the hills or take part in breakaways
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 07:19
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 04-11-2020 19:14
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Probably a good idea not to participate, given we don't have a hilly sprinter - and the pure sprinter competition is pretty fierce. And putting in 6 RDs for a puncheur when it's not even sure they'll actually have a shot at the GC win is too much.
But it will surely be a great race to follow, as always. Gaviria definitely needs to justify his price tag - it will be a good occasion here. Kump will be looking for some redemption after his mediocre 2019 season. But I'm especially looking forward to see if Yates' training already pays off in this race!
And please, can we finally find a way to make PCM display those missing flags?
Thanks for the great preview, roturn! Always nice to see some of its history 
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 04-11-2020 19:37
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Like Fabianski said, first test to see if the Yates' training was worth it. But even if it doesn't pay off this season, it still provides the foundation to make him unstoppable in the near future. 
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 04-11-2020 19:39
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Stage hunting with the back-up trio. Will we make a more effective leadout? Will we freestyle with three sprinters? Will Alaphilipe just continue to do surprisingly good things?
Backing Yates to win it all!
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 04-11-2020 19:52
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I’m excited to see how Edmondson goes against this field. He has done well last season so hopefully he can bring his form across and have another good result!!! Excited to see Wippert in the sprints as well. Not expecting much however.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-11-2020 20:05
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This is one of those races where we just have to get a result one was or the other.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-11-2020 20:11
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Not the ideal profiles for Vesely to shine I think, but worth a gamble. Also probably not a good indicator of Claeys for the rest of the season, hopefully Willunga will be selective enough.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-11-2020 20:25
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So already some pressure on Gaviria after Bonifazio failing us. Probably need a good GC on top of a stage win here.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-11-2020 21:37
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Hope Houle can do well here and hang on in the hill stages, could be a huge upside here if he's on form otherwise might be a very low scoring race if neither him nor Meurisse can overperform a little. Cool to see the team (and career, in his new upgraded form) debut for Xandro here
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 04-11-2020 22:04
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I do think that Kump is one of the biggest favourites here, and was hoping to dodge Gaviria, alas that didn't happen!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 04-11-2020 22:16
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Packed startlist. Borges starts as the best rider from last edition but looking at his rivals I'm not so optimistic. Yates, Gautier, Kump, Ulissi, Claeys and the Campari and GCN duos look like they could all be better contenders.
Still our man is fast and explosive enough to fend for himself here I believe. Go on Bruno.
Thanks for the historical and informative preview, roturn!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 05-11-2020 01:50
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This was the last race I added for Keough, probably a stretch for him but I have very fond memories from Holloway launching his season by winning the GC here.
Unless the puncheurs are a lot more aggressive this year one of those hilly sprinters takes it in my mind.
Thanks for the preview.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 05-11-2020 02:24
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Ulissi has historically been quite consistent in this race with multiple versions of PCM. PCM 18 kind of hates him though, and so I wonder if Willunga will prove too mountainous for him? Some fond memories with him at TDU tho, this has also been our debut race in PCT seasons ago, would love it if he brough some smiles upon LLS' team.
Thanks for the preview roturn and best of luck everyone
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| redordead |
Posted on 05-11-2020 06:28
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Not here this time, but I have fond memories of this race from last year, as Ciolek took a stage win
The field is stacked, but there is only one rider I'll be cheering for.
Ajmo Marko!! 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 05-11-2020 07:24
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Obviously a good first test here for Ulissi. As mentioned by many in previews, he’s got to have a big season for us to have a hope of staying in the PCT so this is a great first opportunity for him to show what he’s worth!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 05-11-2020 08:20
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Rooting for my fellow CT managers, time to show those PCT guys what CT teams are capable of
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
