For the fourth year in a row, the Conglomerate is back with our PCT preview, for the 2020 MG season. This preview was created as a cooperation between AbhishekLFC, Croatia14, jandal and knockout.
This preview consists of four parts:
1. Review of 2019: Last season we posted a similar preview and we want to review some of our statements from last season for a fact check, as well as seeing how our final predictions stacked up against the real rankings.
2. Questions of the season: We discussed several important questions for the season in a Roundtable format where five of us gave our own point of view on certain topics. All questions discussed here are questions relating to the entire division. The number of questions have been reduced from previous editions of this preview though.
3. Terrain battles: A brand new section which will feature the Top 5 riders in each terrain as a head-to-head-to-head-to-head-to-head battle to determine the food chain, so to say.
4. The squads in detail: This section consists of two parts:
4a: Grades per terrain: We all tried to rate the strength of each team on each terrain to give an overview about how strong we rate the teams on the terrains. We included points in a "hybrid terrain" category when the team has riders that are stronger on any hybrid terrains than in the specialized races.
4b: Team-specific question: Similar to the second part of the preview we once again answered questions about the teams in a roundtable format. This time though there is one question specifically asked for each team.
5. The “expert” predictions: Every predictor tried to predict the final ranking table after we looked intensively at each team. These rankings are fully subjective. Also we tried to come up with a ranking based on the grades of part four.
We start off by recalling some of our predictions for the 2019 season (including some quotes), mostly to let you know how seriously you should take us. FYI, we take this very seriously!
What did we predict for the PCT in 2019?
Prediction 1: We picked Gallopin, Sepulveda and Houle as the three riders most likely to overperform, among others.
Fact:Eduardo Sepulveda definitely ticked this box, scoring nearly 700 points. He was a big reason for his team’s title-winning season. We have to mention Beltran here, who’s good but no one expected him to score 1368 points and finish 2nd in the rankings.
Prediction 2: We predicted Kinoshita’s training to give their manager the best return.
Croatia14 I agree totally with Jandals analysis of Tomohiro Kinoshita. He is, and that is not even close, the #1 pure puncheur in the division. The only rider who I can see beating him is Edu Beltran, depending on how a race unfolds. But with Kinoshita's 82 Hills dominant results are possible.
Fact: Kinoshita finished 6th in the Individual standings, but was only the third best puncher of the division behind Beltran and Izagirre (considering pure punchers, Kinoshita was top). His points ensured Rakuten finished on the podium and secured promotion.
Prediction 3: Carlsberg, Carrefour and Kraftwerk were the three non-relegated teams we mentioned as being in relegation trouble.
Fact: Carlsberg finished 23rd, 63 points below safety. Carrefour finished, an agonizing 5 points below safety. Kraftwerk were comfortably safe in 13th.
Prediction 4: We picked Beltran to master the Mo/Hill races.
jandal: Of course the big new additions are Beltran, who has to be #1 for HI-MO races…
knockout Beltran. On a more mountainous profile Roglic and Meintjes can compete with him while Slagter will often be 2nd best behind Beltran.
Fact: Boy, did he master those races!
Prediction 5: We picked Delvaux as the team most likely to challenge for back-to-back promotions.
Fact: Delvaux finished 7th, 134 points behind the automatic promotion places. However, with no disbands, they will send the 2020 season in the PCT. We think we can still call that a win for ourselves though.
Prediction 6: There was general disagreement between which repeating PCT team had strengthened the most. ISA, cycleYorskhire, Philips and Carrefour were all mentioned.
Fact: We went to both extremes on this one! While ISA won the division and cycleYorkshire finished 5th, gaining promotion, Philips and Carrefour were both relegated to the CT.
Prediction 7: We predicted Lierse as being the most susceptible to a wrong prediction. One soothsayer amongst us threw in the name of Philips!
AbhishekLFC: I would add Philips into this as well with basically just Kelderman assured of good points scoring!
Fact: Lierse did their usual, that is, enough to keep relegation at an arm’s length. Philips on the other hand…
Prediction 8: We thought that Zaini, Moschella, Ji, Wippert, Ranneries, Vogt and the evergreen name on such lists, Matt Rowe, as riders who could be removed from their respective teams, which would make those teams stronger!
jandal: ...So I’ll give it to someone who looks like Dowsett at Nordstrom last year: Tommy Zaini at Europcar, blocking interesting guys in Caruso and Calmejane potentially.
AbhishekLFC: Artemio Moschella might be an interesting candidate for this conversation. If you put the likes Bonnin and De Marchi in a race where Moschella also starts, will the former duo be at all be given the freedom to go on stage and KOM raids, which they otherwise might do, if they lead on their own.
Croatia14: I mentioned him before: If Jianhua Ji wouldn’t be at ISA-Hexaca, I think the team would be better off with more freedom for Boily and Sepulveda. Apart from that this is always the perfect time to look at sprint trains: Philips really has to use Wippert complementary from Saber, otherwise his sprint train can’t work at all. Same goes for the trains of Lo Cicero and the awkward dark cloud that is Ranneries. Iberia hopefully split Merino and King so that Jans is the penultimate man for Degenkolb. But my main answer is almost a classic meme: Mario Vogt. There is a big risk that the AI takes him as the hill captain over Pedro Paulinho, and that is something that we all wouldn’t want to wish Berg Cycles. Give this man a domestique role somewhere finally, please!!
knockout: Christian Ranneries looks like the weakest of the four Carlsberg sprinters and it’s difficult to plan him without accompanying the other three. If he slides in as a leadout then I reckon it might hurt the team a lot because with his high acceleration and low FL, Hi & RES he looks like a terrible leadout.
Fact: Vogt scored 70 points and Wippert scored 62.Matt Rowe scored a whole 6 points all season! The rest scored in the 30s.
Here we could write a long post explaining what we predicted, but a table says more than a thousand words. Let’s see how we stacked up against the final rankings:
ab
cr
ja
ko
so
1
ISA - Hexacta
10
15
9
13
12
2
Volvo acc. by Spotify
2
1
1
1
1
3
Rakuten Pro Cycling
3
6
3
4
4
4
Team UBS
4
3
5
6
3
5
cycleYorkshire
8
11
6
7
5
6
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
15
18
15
14
17
7
Delvaux
13
5
8
5
8
8
Campari/Asahi development
24
21
22
21
21
9
Duolingo
7
7
4
3
6
10
Valio - Viking Genetics
25
24
21
24
24
11
Desigual
1
2
2
2
2
12
Xero Racing
12
10
16
12
19
13
Kraftwerk Man Machine
18
16
17
17
20
14
Minions
6
12
12
8
10
15
Iberia - Team Degenkolb
20
14
19
18
14
16
Berg Cycles
5
4
13
16
9
17
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
11
8
10
9
11
18
Swisslion Cycling Team
23
22
24
23
22
19
Kulczyk - Alitalia
9
13
7
10
13
20
ENI - MOL
22
26
23
22
25
21
Andorra Cycling Project
16
23
25
25
18
22
Carrefour - ESPN
17
19
14
11
16
23
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
19
17
18
20
15
24
Team Europcar
21
20
20
19
23
25
Philips
14
9
11
15
7
26
Sauber Petronas Racing
26
25
26
26
26
ab = AbhishekLFC
ja = jandal
cr = Croatia
ko = knockout
so = statistical outcome
Which training (PCT riders only) will result in the best return?
jandal: I’m going to go with the same utterly wrong answer I made two seasons ago and posit that it’s Ryan Eastman who may not score the most thanks to this new training but could have the most important training if his 81>82MON bump is what saves Azteca from relegation. I’m sure (because I’ve seen their team question already) we’ll talk more in this preview about the parallels between their 2020 squad and their roster in 2018, also after promoting from the CT, and in this training Kentaurus drew yet another similarity - he’ll hope this one has different results!
Meanwhile a lot of teams have made similar bumps to their leaders most of which I like - Altur 82, Wellens 82, Kemboi 80, Buchmann 81, Paulinho 80, Bennett 81, and the former two could do their teams well to keep them well away from needing to worry about any potentially embarrassing double relegation. Bennett’s 81 could be great if he receives favourable fields in his schedule again as it could help him step up to Meintjes’ plate as a top rider in those MO/HI races, whilst Buchmann and Paulinho’s should make them stand up a bit more and fight for the hilly classics near the front. And at the end is Simon Yates’ sprint double boost to 77, and with this further investment after a disappointing 2019 his manager at least will be expecting much-improved results I think! So for potential importance to his team I’ll go for Eastman, and for best return I’ll take a wild stab at Buchmann given the weaker puncheur field at the top this season.
knockout: I can see how the training of Eastman might be the difference between relegation and survival but i cannot ignore the opportunity costs behind that decision. There are so many easy ways to save wage caps for Azteca (e.g. not giving contracts to Acosta, Villegas, Jara, Egidio or Corwin) that opens space to buy another north/south american leader (e.g. Chiarello) with that trainings fee that we shouldn’t be talking about relegation for the team in the first place. Personally, I rate Buchmanns training the most. That should make Buchmann one of the best puncheurs in the division, makes Mapei top favourite for the title and should guarantee promotion at the very least (if that was any question previously) while also making the team better for a possible future PT season. Also Tim Wellens looks much improved.
Croatia14: Yeah I like Buchmann too. Contrarily to Paulinho, who I think doesn’t have the tools of a great puncheur, he’s got what it takes to rise to the top. I think Buchmann should be the best contender for the hill crown besides Beltran. But Mapei would have promoted anyway, so Jandal's approach of looking at the impact on promotion/relegation might be more interesting. Concerning that I have Altur on my list, who completely caught me off-guard with the training and is a lot younger than I remembered. He could be the key to Podium Ambition’s promotion push. I also like the training of Simon Yates a lot, he might become the leader needed for the team, as with the changed routes I’d argue the sprint stat may be a lot more important for puncheurs. So yeah: Most points impact goes to Buchmann/Wellens, most promotion/relegation impact may go to Manninnen (to save Valio) or Altur (to promote Podium Girls).
Which non-promoted teams are in trouble?
AbhishekLFC: I think the teams who had a difficult transfer season are the ones who’ll end up struggling. Campari, Andorra and Kraftwerk look to be heading towards a difficult season. Among these, Kraftwerk can still count on incredible depth to try and squeeze out important points from most races. Campari didn’t improve much and Andorra behaved as if there’s only one kind of terrain in cycling! Those are the three I’d put in as relegation contenders.
knockout: Saying that Campari "didn't improve much” this offseason is a very nice way of saying they got a lot worse. Dan Martin is gone and Slagter likely won’t be able to replace him fully even if he looks like their best scorer. Boekmanns left the team and wasn't replaced. Di Maggio is at best a Pichon replacement while I don't think Ferreira will repeat his 2019 scoring. So I’m very sceptical about their chances to survive. I can fully support that Andorra statement. Their tunnel vision on cobbles puts them in relegation worries and Kraftwerk might also be at risk although I see them as the strongest team of the three. Valio is another team that could be in trouble. Their attempt to get younger might backfire as relegation is a realistic danger.
jandal: As these two have said, Andorra look like very short odds on relegation and it would take some miracles to keep them out of the picture really, and Campari also look like they could be in the battle. To find some less likely options, Kraftwerk and maybe even Minions look like lower mid-table teams who shouldn’t have to take it to the wire for survival but if they underperform they could end up fighting into October, though I don’t think either of them will go down. Same goes for Fablok and possibly Podium Ambition (but I doubt it) for the relegating teams from PT, though I don’t think that’s what this question is about.
Croatia14: Those two you mentioned are doomed, I agree on that. Apart from that it’s a pretty open race in the relegations-battle on my watch. I could honestly see any promoted team relegating. Adastra and Zalgiris seem to have built the best squads, but how do they adjust to planning on PCT-level? Apart from those promoting teams and the obvious choices in Andorra and Campari I have Valio and Kraftwerk in trouble, but I can’t see any other former PCT team relegating without huge planning mistakes.
Which repeating PCT team made the biggest improvement in the transfer window?
AbhishekLFC: I would put this as a tie between Polar and Duolingo. The former got rid of the weight and expectation that was Degenkolb and got in useful replacements. The latter took on a major overhaul, and got in Gesink, who should be an excellent leader in PCT.
knockout: I don’t think that Polar got much stronger during the transfer window. They are stronger than last season but that is more down to the return of Latour as a maxed rider. Same goes for Lierse who look stronger than last season due to the maxing of Oomen and Gaviria. MOL is the team that looks the most improved to me. Cattaneo looks like he could be a very strong GC leader for them and he fits in very nicely while Waeytens is also an upgrade for the hills - no matter how disappointing his performances in the past were. They also added Lo Cicero who could create a bit of a weird planning situation with Maksimov already on the team but if the team found a good solution for that, then this a team far away from only being saved by 19 points at the end of the season.
jandal: Looks like MOL to me, they made some great additions who (as knockout said) if planned well can slot in nicely next to the existing leaders and I expect them to have the biggest positive points swing of the returning PCT outfits even if they don’t finish the highest. Polar might not have improved to such a flashy extent but for some reason I do think they too will shoot up the rankings though not quite to the same extent.
Croatia14: Yeah I hate to say it but I like what MOL did after (I stand by that) a miracle non-relegation due to being very lucky. They got a great rider in Cattaneo, and they cleaned up most of their trash. I’d like to throw Bakkafrost in the mix though. They acted smart on the free agent market by signing future star Dainese, but Sarreau, Scarponi and Perera are great investments and Uwizeyimana is nice (eventhough he has been robbed from Rwandan hearts). Their big move was Monsalve however; and I do think with the right planning, which I absolutely think Sykkel_Freak is capable of, he can lead the team to promotion.
Which promoted team is expected to perform the best and can any of them push for back-to-back promotions?
knockout: I can't see back-to-back promotions for any team this year unless we get a bunch of disband promotion spots. I think the battle for best promoted team will be fought between Adastra and Zalgiris who both had excellent transfer windows. Adastra got Preidler in FA, allowing them to pay a big fee for aging Indosat duo Kristoff and König while Zalgiris made some very smart dealings, most notably basically buying Guerao for 300k (via Teklehaimanot) which has to be one of the most shrewd business deals in the entire transfer window.
jandal: No, and I don’t have much else to add to knockout’s assessment of Adastra and Zalgiris battling for the best promoter. I don’t expect either to even reach the standard of Delvaux (now Bakkafrost) and get in the top ten, but they should be solidly in the scrum of the mid-table, away from the troubles their peers may be facing. Outside of them I guess it would perhaps be Aramco faring best who should slot inside the top 20 without major panics, but anything can happen down there!
Croatia14: There is no chance. I talked about the problems of promoted teams already and how each might relegate this year. I have Zalgiris as the best if they don’t have to stretch themselves too far to develop their young riders. Similarly to Adastra they’re heavily planning-dependent however, and I’m not sure how far I can trust them. Aramco should be the most solid, but the race has never been that wide open. My gut says Zalgiris is going to be the best promoted team however.
AbhishekLFC: My vote would go to Zalgiris as well but the best I see them doing is mid-table. I actually think Aramco have a chance to be the second best promoted team, if Ulissi can live up to his billing of a Top 5 puncher. It’s definitely between those three teams for me. The others will have relegation to worry about all season unfortunately.
Which relegated team(s) will find it difficult to challenge for an immediate promotion back to the PT?
AbhishekLFC: Fablok for me. If anything, I’m struggling to see how they can even stay mid-table! Wellens, Beenot, a couple of Mo/Hill domestiques, one sub-top TT rider, and what else? Where exactly will their points come from?
knockout: It’s Fablok for me too. Looking at the 2020 squad, it is hard to see a team that rode in PT just one season ago. Mapei, Repsol and Farfetch should be at least in the fight for promotion - or more - while Podium Ambitions is at least a wildcard that has slightly more upside to finish high than Fablok.
jandal: Yeah make that a Fablok for me too thanks.
Croatia14: Yes yes yes, despite Wellens it’s Fablok. I’d say that Mapei, Repsol and Farfetch are locks, with the Podium Girls being the boom-or-bust potential team. If their approach works then they can be a Top3 team, if the train doesn’t click they can fall off a cliff and find themselves lower midtable and lower than Fablok. They do have 1000 points from Wellens which will make them a save team mid-table, but I just don’t see the scoring potential apart from him to score big.
Which rider will overperform the most this season?
knockout: Amongst low wage riders: Tony Gallopin. With Schreurs gone, he could now fill the leader role for Bakkafrost on hills and with his fighter-resistance-flat combo, he will further improve on last season’s scoring. Marcel Kittel is another rider that only earns 100k and he will be a fantastic points per wage scorer with time trials being flatter again. Finally, Diego Ulissi. The lack of top puncheurs will give a couple of former subtop riders a chance to shine and I believe that Ulissi is up for a huge season before his first decline.
Croatia14: I’d love this question more if it was “Which rider is worked to the absolute best by their manager?”. Why? Cause overperformance is unpredictable, but predicting commonly unexpected greatness sounds fair. We all know Gallopin will perform better than his wage, that is true. Several others like Gonzales Cortes will do too. But I’d focus on leaders: With the new hill designs watch out for Marko Kump and Simon Yates. Those two should have numerous great classics, and if the engine treats them right and they can ride as leaders they both will be 1000+ riders. I also like to mention Caleb Ewan and Julien Alaphilippe. I do think Podium Ambition will score very well if they just send their sprinters to the hilly races, thus make the game recognize them as captains and ride for them. I’d see them work wonders if the Ladies take the risk. And, while that may sound strange, I’d go the same route with Gaviria. He’d nail so many classics that are categorized as “hills” or “cobbles” if he leads there I’d almost solely send Bonifazio to the really flat races. Gaviria could well become the 2nd best scorer of the division in my opinion.
Looking at other rider types I like Adam Yates a lot if he’s planned as a guy for the tough hills. Similarly to Joseph Areruya he has all the tools necessary to score really well in such races, and I hope both can lead their ways in as many races as possible. Finally I also like the sprinters that can also do cobbles really well. With the outrageous and totally unnecessary change of cobbles becoming more sprinter friendly the mentioned Kump and Gaviria could do well, but I see an advantage for guys like Luke Rowe, Eric Young or Tom van Asbroeck as well if they receive the chance to ride for themselves.
AbhishekLFC: Using the same logic as that mentioned by knockout for Ulissi, Paulinho could nice wildcard rider in the hills, and one that usually does not register too high on anyone’s watchlist. manuel Senni is another likely candidate for the same. A lot of Lierse’s upwards momentum will depend on how the likes of Senni and other second and third tier riders supplement the points scored by Oomen and Gaviria. Eric Young could be a nice little wildcard for Desigual at just 120k. Moazemi should do well for Kraftwerk. Dunbar coild be excellent for Repsol with his overall stage racing skills.
Which teams have the brightest future?
jandal: So many teams to name here and I’m sure to be missing some. The obvious ones to bring up every year are Lierse and Aramco, Aramco with a lot of loan-outs this year still developing but for Lierse the future is now, they look strong and have an average age U27 with their top three U26 which is amazing and some quality riders still to come through. Only two riders on the team decline within the next four seasons and only one is a leader in the team icon Vanbilsen. Outside of them Xero and Farfetch can both quite nearly boast average ages under 25 and are the only teams under 26, Farfetch are a little similar to Lierse in having their younger guys already in leadership positions, their top 6 is all under 30 which is very very good and of the teams I’m mentioning today they’re also the most likely to end up in the PT next season which obviously helps them hugely in having a bright future. Amazingly though given their leaders being youth they still also have over half the team still developing. Xero meanwhile have a great looking group of talents coming through as well as also having nobody over 30. Repsol also have to be mentioned with Kudus, Dunbar and Valter at different stages of being young beasts, as well as a great young core with the top tier all quite young outside of Kittel and Vanmarcke. Swisslion join Farfetch in having over half the squad still developing, they are a bit below Xero and Farfetch for me given only Pogacar and Siric look like real leaders and their current top tier are getting on a bit, but still Saber and Beltran have a few years at the top. Bakkafrost, Berg and I’m sure more also deserve shoutouts here, but for me I can’t look past Farfetch as the complete package of developing talent, young leaders, sustainable future with this squad, and probably promoting next year already which I’m not sure anybody else here outside of Repsol will.
Croatia14: It’s between Lierse, Podium Ambition and Repsol for me. Why? Cause they all have top stars in the making in their team. Of course other teams have some nice riders on their watch, like Farfetch, Swisslion or Xero. But at the end of the day development is about who can turn their riders into stars, and these riders I see first and foremost in Kudus, Gaviria and Ewan. The young core of all three teams helps them even more of course.
knockout: When arguing who has the brightest future: these aspects are important: 1. Likelihood of immediate promotion / relegation: If you are in danger of relegating to CT, then your possible bright future might turn dark real quick. 2. World Class Potential: Having a young rider that is or can be developed into being world class in the next 2-3 years. 3. Good depth: Having a couple of riders that will be solid assets even after promotion to ProTour.
The obvious choice is Lierse. Gaviria has the potential to be the best sprinter for half a decade and Oomen will finish a GT in the top 5 sooner or later and the team has a lot of assets that will useful once they promote to PT. Repsol is another good call. Kudus is their GT star of the present and the future, Dunbar and Valtar will still improve and there is plenty of fire power that they are less likely to relegate again if they will promote this year. Farfetch is the third team I’d highlight. Their team depth two years into the future will be incredible with lots of nice role riders for every PT team. They might not have the one absolute world class rider in their squad already but Kemboi or maybe Yates can be trained for quite some time too.
To quickly mention why i don’t second some of the other teams as my top picks for this question: The way that Podium Ambition has (not) moved in transfers ever since they signed young Ewan makes me question whether they have any ambition to be better than a team that might luck into the occasional one-and-done PT season. Xero has a lot of very cool riders but a lot of them look like they are more suited to PCT than PT and i dont see any rider that could score 1000 points in PT. Swisslion’s age structure of their current leaders suggest that they have to be replaced once their talents max so might not be as good as quickly as one might think. Aramco might not even survive this season in PCT.
What impact will the calendar changes have?
knockout: It’s hard to make general statements so I’m giving you a couple of hypotheses:
1. Pure puncheurs will improve a bit compared to last season
2. Pure TT guys will improve scoring compared to last season because they can more snatch stage results that often went to stage racers with good Mo/TT combos. Good Hi/TT guys might be one of the most benefitting groups since they can use their time trialling skill better on flat stages and don’t need a good MO for every hilly stage race anymore. So the Navardauskas type should benefit a lot.
3. Cobble stat might be less important. This could give more importance to backup stats (Sp / HI / FL) as well as to the support within the team.
jandal: Think knockout is right with what he said, only thing I can think to add is with Grand Prix Cyclistes and the new Lugano route there’s a bit more for the punchy sprinters and sprinty puncheurs than last season’s calendar had, even if it’s not at the levels of 3-4 seasons ago.
Croatia14: I already presented my disgruntlement for some of the changes concerning the cobbles, and I’d also argue that we shot ourselves in the foot by having straight finishes all the time in sprint decisions. This will lead teams to even more often send their train out too early, and if you don’t have a train set up with clear sprint and acc differences this will hurt the teams with trains a lot. Talking about the impact on one team specifically I could imagine that Berg Cycles could fall way down the ranks if they bank on even two out of Silvestre, Kupfernagel and Swift in the same train. They’ll be completely messed up lots of times due to lacking a proper power sprinter as last leadout-men after the very good third guys Reckweg/Kortsidakis.
For all other analysis I think knockout’s post summed up it all. Maybe I’d like to add that puncheur/mountain hybrids suffered a little too much from the calendar change, but then the best ones are the best puncheurs this year anyway so it hopefully doesn’t make too much of a difference.
Name an obscure detail/fun fact about this year's PCT!
#1 Ilja Tjagunovs signed his first professional contract this year as a stagiare for Polar. He is the worst rider in PCT this year according to his 65,27 OVR despite already being level 4. However, he is currently the second best latvian time trialler in the MG world so if Carlsberg’s Artur Belevics misses the national championships for whatever reason, he has a good chance to become a national champion.
#2 The highest OVL rider having just one 70+ stat in the PCT is Alessandro Fedeli, riding for Lierse. He has a hill rating of 72. He is level 3 so this weird record won’t remain his for too long.
#3 There is just one rider in PCT this year that has a sprint stat below 70, a cobble stat below 60, a hill stat below 60 and a mountain stat below 60. His name: Nils Schomber.
#4 There are only two riders in PCT with a minimum of 68 in all stats; Albert Kireva riding for Andorra and Xero’s Shaun Nick Bester.
#5 Aramco has arguably the most diverse group of riders riding for them with no nationality more than twice. (not counting loaned out riders)
#6 Valio is the team that focuses the most on developing riders from their home country. Exactly half of their 2020 riders are finnish.
#7 There are just three riders in PCT in 2021 that have a prologue stat above 80. One of their names: Nils Schomber.
#8 According to the MG World Rankings, Mapei are the highest ranked (#16) team in the PCT while DK Zalgiris is the lowest ranked (#55) team in the PCT.
#9 Aleksandr Pluchkin remains the highest ranked rider in the PCT. He is currently the World Number 8. The next best placed rider is Robert Gesink, at #14, who moved to Duolingo in the off-season.
knockout: For me, Pluchkin still looks like the strongest stage racer in the division and i’d suspect that he will win the majority of head vs head duels against his rivals. Tenorio might be ready for his strongest season in years but i still see him weaker as Pluchkin and i also think Gesink will score more points this season than Tenorio. Gesink will be particularly interesting to watch as he is such a versatile stage racer that I think he has the upside to finish in the top 5 individual ranking if he is planned to feature in those (shorter) hilly stage races with a TT too.
AbhishekLFC: I agree with knockout in thinking that Gesink, with his overall abilities, could usurp both Pluchkin and Tenorio in the standings, if planned well. Not that I think it'll eventually happen, because Pluchkin will still probably win every PCT race he enters! Kudus looks to be a podium contender for every race he enters too but I'd put him as fourth best ahead of Wellens.
jandal: As I have already written but you won’t have already read because it’s in the next section, I have pretty much the same take as these two that Pluchkin still looks ahead of Tenorio in the 84s. Kudus and Wellens look like great 82s but I will also be boring and agree with them again that Gesink will do better than them because of his skillset and that I believe he’ll end up in races like Pologne and California and will take advantage of his 79HI and probably win those if Pluchkin doesn’t show. Not sure if I agree he can usurp Pluchkin as I doubt he can avoid him enough to take a winning sweep which he’d probably need to manage that! But he is a top top rider no doubt about it. Kudus rode a lot of those races too last time he was in PCT if I remember correctly, and could also do well if he does it again. Will go Pluchkin-Gesink-Tenorio-Kudus-Wellens for an order here (in terms of points, not in a race together) if you want that.
Croatia14: I’m not too sure about that. I’d imagine the number of top class stage racers will hurt each other a little. Tenorio, Gesink, Eastman, Cattaneo and Uran should all be on similar schedules and will hurt each other in my opinion. Pluchkin should still be the best on a clear mountain stage, but I have Wellens on my watch as potential number two and Kudus as number 3. Those two could turn out to be the real benefitters of the battle of several great TT-heavy stage racers in the division. And with hill races being less attractive for climbers this year I will take the bold claim that Gesink may be the lowest scoring of those five at the end of the day (though all depends on luck and planning here).
Hills
Beltran vs Buchmann vs I. Izagirre vs Slagter vs Ulissi
knockout: I think the hills are the terrain where last season’s PCT field looked stronger than this year. With multiple strong leaders leaving to either PT or CT, there is a bit of a void in the top 10 to be filled with new riders. Beltran looks like the strongest pure puncheur now and with the departure of Kinoshita and Kelderman and the arrival of strong hybrid riders like Gesink, training of Bennett and the maxing of MA Lopez in PTHC races, I wonder whether a more linear planning as a rider closer to a pure puncheur might make sense for him. However, I think Izagirre might deliver close to his level: He has fantastic value races with Scandinavia, Slovenie and Norway in PTHC and Ukraine or Pais Vasco where he has clear advantages over many other puncheurs to the rare HI/TT combination. I don’t think he is “stronger” than Beltran but with his schedule I see another 1000 points season basically guaranteed. Ulissi and Buchmann will also score very well while Slagter might be punished by the strong startlists on Mo/Hi races with Beltran, Buchmann, Bennett, Gesink, etc all looking a bit stronger.
AbhishekLFC: Izagirre should once again be as good as last season with similar planning, because his suited races haven't changed much. Beltran could be in for a loss of 200-250 points but should still win the puncher battle, with Buchmann a close second. Slagter kind of falls in the in-between of being a top top puncher and one that is likely to suffer from the influx of better hilly stage racers. Ulissi looks to be a wildcard among the five, having a long history of overperformance on his 80 hill stat. He could be the surprise package of the season indeed.
jandal: For sure I agree here with knockout that there’s a drop in standard as I spoke about in the training question, and that’s why Buchmann’s training looks very very good to take him near the top especially if Beltran spends some days in the mountain stage races, which I don’t think would serve the latter as well as it did last year compared to a more straight hills schedule (possibly with Pologne or something still there) - or maybe that’s wishful thinking from Bennett’s manager! Agree with Abhishek about Izagirre repeating his great 2019 with a similar calendar and maybe even less competition in some races with Coppel and Sepulveda gone from the division and no major incomings unless Gesink spends some time in Ukraine and Pais Vasco which wouldn’t be a bad shout from Gustav if he did tbh. Ulissi has never been competing for the win consistently in PCM18 so will be interesting how he fits into the PCT again now, and could definitely take out some races like Grand Prix Cyclistes or Tour Down Under with his sprint. Slagter I’m not sure will feature in the hills too much - I am thinking even if he is well suited to it, Campari just have to bank on Di Maggio doing well and separate the two, with Slagter to the hybrid climbing races. Beltran-Izagirre-Buchmann-Ulissi------Slagter in the rankings, with Izagirre back below Ulissi in terms of a hill classic.
Croatia14: I don’t think Izagirre will be as good as last year. And my reason for that is that managers will have understood now that it’s a great idea to send their stage racers to races which were Izagirre-races last year. Guys like Tenorio, Gesink, Cattaneo or Eastman should be in almost every stage race he did well in. Beltran and Buchmann will be slightly hurt by the calendar as well though. There is no big time puncheur this year for the pure races, so it might well be somebody like Simon Yates at the end. I’d like to pick Rasmus Guldhammer because he’d be a Top 3 puncheur in PCT (and better than Buchmann possibly), but with Buchmann the manager took another path. My pick is Beltran ahead of the best sprinter/puncheur hybrid that gets recognized in hill races (Yates/Ulissi?/Kump?!/Gaviria!!??). Slagter and Buchmann will be nice, but I can’t see them getting close to Beltran really.
Time Trials
Fiedler vs Fraille vs Paillot vs Sergent vs Zmorka
AbhishekLFC: At the top, I think it'll be a Fiedler vs Paillot battle for supremacy in the ITTs. Zmorka will likely be the next best in ITTs and he will also be helped by great scoring in TTTs and the GCs affected by the same. Fraille could become a great scorer for climbing races with major TT influence.
jandal: I am very much not the man about time triallists, both due to my lack of knowledge and how I fall asleep if I have to think about them too long, so let’s go quick (sorry TT fans)! Fiedler and Zmorka are top dogs in ITTs with the 82 and good backups, Paillot as always is a very nice more rounded rider, and Sergent as always is boring and I’m very glad I didn’t win my insane 2017 bidding war over him! Fraile is the wildcard here, he had a brilliant 2019 really and Mre would surely love him to repeat it for the purposes of a possible promotion push. Not sure if he can do it again but think he’ll have another good one.
knockout: Looking solely at the stats of the rider, I’d say Fiedler looks stronger than Zmorka. However, I think Zmorka will score more over the course of the season because his TTT team looks stronger and will give him more high GC results that way. Behind that duo, I’d see Fraile as a close third best scorer amongst time triallists this year with reduced scoring compared to last season while Sergent and Paillot will compete with other specialists for the spots behind.
Croatia14: Tenorio! Well if he’s planned as he should be. I explained already why these stage racers should be in all the TT-heavy stage races that are not completely flat, and I stand by that reasoning. They’ll score much better in those TT-prone races. Apart from that Repsol will win the TT game because TTT, as knockout said. They’ll dominate such races, and with the numbers they have at the top at least one will perform at his best in any race. I’m not sold on Fiedler being a success story, and Sergent is just a slightly worse version of him. Fraile will suffer under the same problems I laid out for Izagirre, if opponents play it smart - he’ll still be a good scorer, but not as outstanding as last year.
Sprints
Ewan vs Gaviria vs Kump vs Lo Cicero vs Swift
knockout: Last season has shown that there might not be the one dominator of the sprints but there is a lot of quality in PCT to share the stage wins around. Caleb Ewan is the most complete sprinter today and has to be considered the best sprinter in the division. Gaviria, Kump and Swift are neck-to-neck-to-neck behind him and I think all of them will score very well and have a decent chance to score 2nd best of them over the course of the season although Gaviria and Kump might be a bit more planning dependent than Swift.
AbhishekLFC: If planned well, Kump should be the best of the lot, but planning is extremely important for that to happen. Ewan is the best sprinter on paper but the game doesn't really give too much of an edge based on the sprint stat. On a flat course in ideal conditions, Swift is the closest competitor to Ewan in terms of top speed. Gaviria, much like Kump, is probably a little more planning dependent. Lo Cicero is just too unpredictable to accurately predict and might not actually be a Top 5 sprinter. He has had one really good season and no consistency besides that!
Croatia14: Lo Cicero is not in the discussion for me, because if he has a train he’ll be doomed and if he doesn’t have a train it most likely means that he’s been dropped already anyway. For Swift I already presented my concern. I hate that train, and I think Silvestre might score better than Swift if complementary planned. Ewan will be the best sprinter, that’s for sure. But a lot depends on how his team manages to compose his train. If they play their game right he can lift them to promotion single-handedly, but if they make the mistake of f.e. putting Nelson into his train they could shoot themselves in the foot this way. Gaviria and Kump are the best to snap the crown from Ewan, but they have to be individually planned even more carefully. Both don’t need a train really. Especially for Kump the season might be very interesting: If they have a squad around Duchesne, Villella, Diggle and Gaspar in the hills and Kumara and van Keirsbulck on the cobbles for him he could be the best of the bunch. Gaviria has similarly high stakes, but I don’t see similarly good domestiques for him. The team really lacks a leadout sprinter that can do hills well and take over from Vanbilsen. If they leave de Plus (and Skjerping to not irritate the engine) for the hard hill races however and build around Gaviria with Verhelst, van Aert and Gamper for the lighter hilly races I can see him being a similarly successful rider.
Northern Classics
Altur vs Daniel vs Summerhill vs Trentin vs Vanbilsen
AbhishekLFC: On paper, Summerhill is by far the strongest, and with Vanspeybrouck coming in as super-super domestique (also the reason we didn’t put him in the Top 5), his chances on the cobbles just got a whole stronger. Unless there’s infighting of course! Valio will be hoping that the Daniel gambit pays off. That huge deal probably hamstrung them to some extent, and prevented getting another (sub-top) leader in. Matteo Trentin ticks all the boxes for me to usurp Summerhill in certain races. Any race that is not selective automatically gives him the edge. He could in fact turn out to be the bane that sinks Summerhill’s hope of a superhuman season. Vanbilsen and his innate ability to ‘over-perform’, the statement doesn’t really do his stats justice imo, has always been a rider I liked, and I think he should really benefit from the profile changes this time. Golden-boy Altur will be hoping for a better season. The competition in the PCT will help but I do not really see him push on to become a top three cobbles rider in the division. Summerhill, Trentin and Vanbilsen look to be the top dogs for me.
knockout: Surely, Summerhill has to be at the top of the division after THAT transfer. And just like Abhishek, I see Trentin as the most dangerous competitor to him. Altur should often be the third strongest while I rate Vanbilsen and Daniel on a similar level.
Croatia14: Summerhill is untouchable, simple as that. I like the look of Trentin as the competitor, as the sprint stat will be really important here. That’s why I also like Altur, Vanbilsen and Daniel similarly, it depends a lot on how the engine interprets Andorra's line-up and how hard they push to rip the race. I could imagine a rider like Kristoff, Saber (!) or Rowe doing better than all of those though if Vanspeybrouck and all the others aren’t used to make the race as hard as possible.
Adastra’s new leaders rode for PT teams last season. How much can we expect from them in PCT?
AbhishekLFC: I was impressed with Adastra's dealings in the transfer window. The double signing of Kristoff and Konig, for the price they came for, was excellent. Preidler was the one they really went after in the FAs and got there eventually. Those three are good leaders for the PCT. Preidler and Kristoff especially should do really well for them. Kristoff is a proven scorer on both sprints and cobbles and should continue being a consistent Top 5 to Top 10 contender for both. Preidler too should benefit from the drop down in the division and he too will be a Top 5 contender at worst for most races that he enters. Konig however, needs good planning to be a decent scorer. Besides these three, Lander is also an excellent acquisition and should do well for them in sprints. However, behind that it's a bit of a worry with points scoring. The other sprinters are not proven scorers in the PCT. Navardauskas had one great season a couple of seasons ago but is more of a bit part player now. He will need great planning. Everyone else is a good domestique at best.
jandal: Like Abhi I am a big fan of what Adastra managed to do in transfers as a promoting team and I expect it’s well enough for them to not worry too much about relegation unless they suffer some continued misfortune, or their planning is a disaster. The quality of Alexander Kristoff is obvious even if I’d love what he could do with more FL and RES, and so I worry if he’ll be stuck in between sprinting and cobbles and not scoring too well on either, though I’m sure he’ll do well and I’m overthinking it/trying to find a reality where he doesn’t outscore Rowe. Priedler is top quality for the MO/HI races if he goes in that direction for his schedule with 80/78 backed up with 76RES being very very good in the kind of startlists those races attract. My love for Lander should be fairly predictable given my own team’s top leaders (and my bidding war for him two years ago) and I hope he can do well with some good race planning and AI treatment (I’m thinking some late attacks in the flat classics). Konig looks (with De la Cruz and Areruya, the latter with whom I don’t expect many clashes due to their different rider types) to be the best of the third/fourth tier of climbers in the 76-78 range and so could definitely pull some decent results in with good (I should I say lucky) planning as well as fighting for consistent top 10s elsewhere. Drapac had a poor season last year but can do better, and neither Canelon or Stauff should be too bad even if I believe the €210,000 the latter two suck up is a huge waste of money which could have gone to somewhere else, especially given their advancing ages and the three sprinters ahead of them. Navardauskas was hit and miss in the last two seasons but I believe he’s still quality with some luck. If I can be a little self-centered, watch out for Sergio Higuita, whose career seems to have heavy parallels to his Xero teammate Joseph Areruya with a similar skillset. Last year the Rwandan had a lot of breakaway success and got nearly 200 points - Adastra would surely love that from their loanee.
knockout: I share the appreciation for Adastra’s transfer window. Preidler should prove solid value for a rider who comes from this tough FA market while still being training eligible. He has his weaknesses (TT and flat finishes) but as a PCT team you should be able to plan around that for a rider that is both the mountains and hills leader. He should score similar or slightly above the scoring of riders like Meintjes or Bennett last year. König as second climber can fill the stage racing gap that Preidler's weaknesses open. He performed well last season in PT and I expect him to ride anonymously to lots of good GC results. Kristoff was a beast last year in PT and the step down in division should match the first decline so I don't see any reason why he should suddenly be bad. Expect him to deliver another strong season before the decline hits him too hard. Lander is a bit more of a mystery this season. He is another cool and good rider but his skill stat is perhaps a bit too similar to Kristoff's skill set and that might prevent him from being a good scorer himself. Still that quartet is very strong and I don't see the team having to worry about relegation due to that.
Croatia14: I think they can do a lot in PCT: However, it’s also a very difficult task to manage them. Kristoff and Lander don’t seem to work well together for me, and they have similar races in which they excel. I’d prefer if you could split them in the flat races and make them work together on the cobbles. Lander especially was disappointing last year, but I have high hopes for him. He might be the replacement for Kristoff next year already. Preidler and König are great signings, but the depend a lot on planning. Preidler needs the tough hilly races that are decided before the final ramp, cause he’s not fast at all. But then again he doesn’t have the perfect stats for racing on the flat, so the multiple ascent races where he can work his advantage on the downhill sections are the ones to identify. König on the other hand needs to find the classic stage races where he can sneak to loads of good results under the radar and then use his time trial/energy stats to hang on on the climbs and do a solid work against the clock. Adastra depends a lot on planning, but if ivaneurope learned from previous mistakes I the leader acquisitions were spot on for a solid season in lower mid-table.
Adastra
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
2
7
6
4
6
Croatia14
7
3
7
7
2
4
jandal7
6
2
7
5
3
7
knockout
7
2
6
6
2
7
Andorra Cycling Project
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Danny Summerhill
78
66
73
59
76
72
69
83
70
73
81
73
59
4.100
31
Pieter Vanspeybrouck
75
65
70
61
77
70
70
81
66
68
73
78
61
4.100
33
Azizulhasni Awang
64
52
52
70
67
62
71
55
79
83
61
59
70
4.100
32
Marc Machado
69
54
63
58
72
67
63
79
62
61
79
59
58
4.100
32
Ole Hirschlein
65
77
71
69
71
71
72
51
54
59
64
69
69
4.100
32
Albert Kireva
75
68
69
75
73
76
72
69
70
73
71
71
76
4.100
30
Ulugbek Galiev
67
76
69
55
73
79
69
52
50
58
72
75
55
4.100
30
Lluis Ropero
67
74
73
65
66
73
72
58
59
68
75
73
64
4.100
32
Wout Poels
67
73
67
71
76
76
75
60
55
67
67
72
71
4.100
33
Kevin Eeckhout
72
55
61
54
71
71
61
77
64
57
68
74
54
4.100
31
Oscar Cabanas
68
71
71
74
73
70
68
56
61
66
70
67
75
4.100
29
Marco Tizza
70
66
73
63
75
75
68
63
69
71
71
71
64
4.38
28
Jelle Wallays
72
63
75
69
72
71
70
64
64
69
82
64
69
4.100
31
Gunnar Dahl-Olsen
73
54
68
72
66
77
66
74
59
69
69
65
69
4.100
30
Jordi Majoral
66
74
68
67
69
71
70
55
63
68
67
71
69
3.0
23
Rory Townsend
74
55
66
65
70
64
61
72
69
70
68
64
64
3.0
25
Adria Urcelay
67
74
70
62
71
67
72
50
57
71
72
77
64
4.79
26
Einer Augusto Rubio
64
69
68
60
71
69
68
60
60
69
69
63
60
1.0
22
Jens Reynders
67
61
64
60
68
68
67
69
66
69
65
64
62
1.0
22
Nils Eekhoff
69
60
65
68
69
71
64
66
70
68
64
63
69
1.0
22
Buying Vanspeybrouck as a super domestique to Summerhill - Is that an act of insanity or is he a valuable addition to the team?
jandal: To be clear I appreciate this was probably not Andorra’s Plan A, but this was a huge WTF moment for me. He was hardly even a bargain at 1.15m fee. I’m sure Summerhill and Vanspeybrouck will do great but surely if you’re dishing out for another leader (and obviously they did need to do so - and probably should have done it again more times after that) surely you don’t get him as a superdomestique for the undisputed best in the division and rather as literally any other rider type. Add to that he’s on the decline and clearly not one for the future his usefulness is as a relegation saviour so they can rebuild next year, and I’m far from convinced he’ll do that, or that Andorra will stand much of a chance. Apples to apples comparisons between years aren’t a perfect science by any means, but the fact of the matter for me is that looking at the rankings last year, if Vanspeybrouck performs as well as he did last year (when he was undisputed leader at Carlsberg and hadn’t declined) and combined with the rest of this squad, they’d still be in the bottom few teams. I’d love to be proven wrong and witness a glorious partnership though, and I do feel bad being this blunt, but it just wasn’t the move to make at all in my view.
knockout: The deal to buy Vanspeybrouck is probably the single transfer in the transfer window where i can understand the least why someone would want to do it. If i want to compare it with Grieg who had a similar insane plan to build around Pedersen and Wisniowski, it seems to make a lot more sense for Grieg: Pedersen looks like he has the potential to be the dominant cobbler once Bewley (and after his training Wisniowski) has fully declined and Pedersen gets some training, both Wisniowski and Pedersen have a bit of added value on other terrains and Pedersen looks like the most important cornerstone for the next decade for Grieg. Also the team has other intriguing riders with scoring upside that they aren't doomed yet. But for Andorra, the situation looks completely different. Kireva is the closest to someone with the upside for some bigger scores (and he scored 134 points in 2019) on other terrains. No leader for mountains, hills, TTs or sprints - that is even too extremely one-dimensional by Evonik standards. And Vanspeybrouck won’t have much of a resale value after the season. The deal would have made more sense if Andorra hadn't also spent over 600k in wages to (admittedly very nice) level 1 talents that won’t score this season but i can’t see how that was the best option for them at any point. David de la Cruz, Jay McCarthy, Ruben Guerrero, Pello Bilbao and Dusan Kalaba are only some of the names that were transferred later into the window and all of them would have made more sense to me.
AbhishekLFC: I pretty much explained how I feel about the decision in the previous section about how I think Andorra are going to struggle and why. Cobbles anyway is not a terrain that offers a lot of points, and to spend so much on a top cobbles leader just so that he can play second fiddle to your other top cobbles leader was a strange one for me. In other terrains, besides Awang, who will probably sneak in a few Top 5s and a couple of podiums with good planning, there isn’t any rider that can even get Top 15s on any terrain!
Croatia14: Their plan clearly was to go full Azteca (2016/17-version), and they did. If Summerhill can deliver as he did back then he might be able to save them. But there are several problems: First we play on a new game, and I can’t imagine him winning everything as he did back then. Second the cobbles were adjusted which will hurt the influence of the pure cobbled stat. And while Summerhill (and Vanspeybrouck) are great all around, they first and foremost are great cobblers. So there will be less emphasis on cobbles, which is bad for Andorra. Third they have no (unmaxed) Beltran or Chaves who could score some complementary points, they basically have to rely on breaks without having any proper breakaway riders except for Kireva. And fourth: Why on earth would a team called Andorra go for cobbles only!? If the roads up Arcalis or the Coll de la Galina are too bad then at least go full mountain cobbles.
Andorra
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
3
1
2
10
4
2
Croatia14
1
1
1
10
2
1
jandal7
1
1
2
10
2
1
knockout
1
1
1
10
1
3
Aramco DP
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Diego Ulissi
76
66
80
62
83
71
72
51
74
75
75
63
62
4.100
32
Daniel Martin
68
80
75
71
74
75
73
53
63
73
70
61
69
4.100
34
Oscar Avelino
70
53
63
56
69
65
75
63
82
77
59
66
69
4.100
33
Milos Borisavljevic
68
77
73
74
74
74
75
54
59
65
64
68
74
4.100
26
Darshana Prasad
74
60
68
66
73
74
80
66
77
79
54
69
68
4.100
26
Jani Tewelde
74
58
64
53
75
72
77
59
78
77
60
52
67
4.100
29
Jonathan McEvoy
70
64
76
65
75
70
71
65
75
79
79
66
65
4.100
31
Tesfar Teklit
70
70
77
64
75
72
70
59
64
70
60
67
64
4.100
32
Armindo Fonseca
74
54
61
64
74
68
76
60
78
77
63
63
64
4.100
31
Ruben Fernandez
66
75
75
66
72
69
72
57
60
66
72
72
65
4.100
29
Stelly Robert
67
57
60
79
66
70
68
57
55
55
74
70
79
4.100
32
Evgeny Russo
68
70
74
72
72
71
69
71
65
69
63
61
70
4.100
31
Nicola Conci
70
73
71
73
73
72
74
56
63
67
62
71
73
3.61
23
Stijn Joseph
73
59
65
63
75
69
68
75
65
69
71
76
63
4.100
33
Maral-Erdene Batmunkh
73
54
65
63
72
72
65
73
74
74
68
58
73
4.100
26
Daniel Allonca
74
54
65
68
69
69
65
74
66
61
84
77
68
4.100
32
Mohammad Saufi Mat Senan
69
75
71
67
74
71
70
51
58
70
65
59
67
4.100
30
Maher Hasnaoui
68
74
71
70
73
70
73
58
64
64
67
63
70
4.100
31
Mohamad Izzat Hilmi Abdul Halil
66
59
59
60
68
65
74
60
76
75
60
67
64
3.11
25
Alexander Richardson
77
60
65
60
71
74
66
65
68
67
76
67
60
4.100
30
Mohammed Al Murawwi
71
57
62
74
67
69
63
56
65
67
73
68
73
4.100
32
Gerben Thijssen
68
60
60
60
67
67
63
60
70
73
65
63
60
1.0
22
Loaned out talents and aging leaders. Will that formula keep Aramco in PCT for another year?
AbhishekLFC: To be honest, I think Aramco did an excellent job to rebuild the team for PCT this year. Firstly, to sort out the distraction of loaning out nearly a dozen riders, and then to bring in Ulissi, Martin and Avelino is praise-worthy. I’ll stick my neck out and say they won’t even be in the relegation discussion this season and should be safe around the 15th place mark.
knockout: I’m less confident in that despite thinking that Aramco did a very solid job this transfer window. A lot of that is due to not being convinced that Avelino will deliver for them. Ulissi is probably the most interesting Aramco rider to watch in 2020. He has the chance for a huge season which could lead his team a long way towards safety while Martin will be very solid although obviously will not repeat his immense 2019 season. There are also a few second row riders that can do their part in saving them like Borisavljevic and McEvoy but for the most part it will be down to whether Ulissi and Martin can pull a Beltran and carry the rest of the team towards a bright future.
jandal: For me although often depth scoring is harder to predict, I usually have more trouble being confident in predictions for top-heavy teams, especially those that are looking for relegation survival assurance (for I am a great source of comfort due to my immaculate predictions in the past, no need to check to be sure), due to how much weight is placed in fewer riders giving less chance to even out. That is to say, Ulissi and Martin better deliver! To be fair to Aramco these two aren’t likely to fail, in fact they’re both very good quality scorers even if Martin’s decline means he won’t pull off the same impressive feats of his 2019 seasons, however his backups are still nothing to be scoffed at. Ulissi meanwhile is still something of an unknown quantity for me as a top leader in PCM18 but I suspect he will be very very good for a lower table team. McEvoy is very cool but does seem to occupy a similar space to Ulissi in being a puncheur-sprinter. I really like Borisavljevic as someone to have long-term but I’m unsure how good he can be if he’s needed to keep them up. However overall I think they have found in the short-term solutions to quite safely keep their long-term dreams alive, and as Abhi said huge credit to the manager for doing all this in a promotion season rebuild and juggling many loans!
Croatia14: I don’t think they’re safe, but they are pretty well prepared. With Martin and Ulissi they finally got the PCT-worthy leaders, and they will be necessary for success. The team looks solid in terms of depth and actually have very few talents in their team for this year (cause they’re all abroad). For me this is a good gap year to then attack next season when the lvl 4 talents come back. And as long as the planning (which seems pretty straightforward) is solid A
Aramco
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
9
6
3
6
2
Croatia14
7
7
5
1
3
4
jandal7
6
8
6
3
4
3
knockout
7
7
4
1
3
4
Azteca - NBCSN
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Ryan Eastman
70
82
71
77
76
75
76
56
62
69
73
66
73
4.100
28
Johan Esteban Chaves
70
76
79
68
74
73
72
54
60
72
69
64
68
4.100
30
Robbie Squire
68
77
77
65
70
70
76
65
61
71
76
65
65
4.100
30
German Nicolas Tivani
70
63
66
63
68
78
76
56
77
78
72
68
72
4.16
25
Fabio Duarte
66
78
66
73
71
73
73
50
60
70
65
59
73
4.100
34
Edison Bravo
70
70
76
64
74
73
70
55
65
70
71
71
66
4.100
28
Cesar Vaquera
71
55
64
54
69
65
73
56
78
80
64
64
54
4.100
31
Gavin Mannion
68
77
71
64
72
76
65
55
61
71
67
63
64
4.100
29
Chequan Richardson
71
61
67
63
68
68
64
78
60
61
75
66
63
4.100
27
Jaime Suaza
64
78
63
71
62
73
62
50
58
76
55
62
71
4.100
34
Sergio Godoy
68
74
75
65
72
71
67
56
58
63
67
64
66
4.100
32
Sergio Ortega
64
75
64
74
66
72
72
50
52
60
58
58
72
4.100
33
German Anibal Orue
69
50
64
64
77
70
56
78
53
58
78
73
68
4.100
26
Felix Emilio Besada
68
63
77
54
74
74
64
58
56
77
58
56
54
4.100
29
Peter Stetina
63
77
66
63
65
72
72
59
54
63
75
72
63
4.100
33
Jordan Cheyne
73
58
66
76
73
75
70
55
65
67
69
64
75
4.100
29
Dadley Corwin
69
51
66
55
66
64
63
77
55
56
71
75
55
4.100
32
Uri Martins Sandoval
71
69
70
73
70
69
68
68
67
69
74
69
72
4.2
30
Christian Egidio
66
69
72
73
68
68
72
51
61
70
77
64
65
4.100
33
Ernesto Mora
72
66
68
73
68
69
67
68
64
66
81
68
73
4.0
29
Adam Roberge
66
73
65
64
72
71
66
61
60
67
53
64
64
3.12
23
Jhojan Garcia
67
69
68
65
70
70
67
55
63
69
60
62
64
1.0
22
Miguel Florez
66
69
68
67
65
69
70
55
63
67
66
68
66
1.56
24
Ruben Acosta
66
70
62
63
74
73
65
63
62
59
64
75
63
2.19
24
Jesus Villegas
66
68
67
67
67
68
68
55
61
68
63
65
67
1.24
23
Jefferson Alexander Cepeda
67
69
67
62
68
67
64
57
60
67
61
59
61
1.0
22
Kevin Rivera
66
69
67
59
66
67
67
57
60
69
68
63
58
1.0
22
Juan Diego Alba
65
68
67
60
66
67
67
57
57
63
57
62
61
1.0
23
Ian Garrison
68
63
66
69
66
67
63
61
66
67
66
64
68
1.0
22
Daniel Jara
67
68
66
67
68
60
63
58
65
67
63
60
67
1.20
23
Same old, same old? When Azteca relegated from PCT as last place finisher in 2018 their top scorers were Ryan Eastman, Johan Esteban Chaves and Robbie Squire. This season their leaders are Ryan Eastman, Johan Esteban Chaves and Robbie Squire. Is there any reason to be more excited about their chances to survive this season?
knockout: There are few things that make them look stronger this year: 2020 Eastman is stronger than 2018 Eastman as he got quite a bit of training since then and PCM18 should be better suited to him while Chaves and Squire might be more suited to pcm18 than pcm15 too. However, they had a terrible transfer window: They arrived from CT with probably the closest to a PCT ready roster and would have needed to add just one solid leader and would have been safe from relegation. However, their best new riders are a level 4 sprinter that scored 2 points in PCT last season (Tivani) and two grandpas who were available for min wage (Duarte and Suaza). They also fell into a lot of traps they should have known already from the past: They confused min limits and max limits for the number of riders. They rely on cobblers without stamina, resistance, sprinting skills, climbing ability or ability to ride on normal flat roads. Their climbers can only climb slowly, not quickly. And they have a bazillion of (right now) useless talents that demand race days to develop.
AbhishekLFC: A twice over improved Eastman and a game that helps Chaves more is basically all that Azteca hope will help them stay in the PCT this time! Unless I'm missing something big...
jandal: Wow this team is bloated! I’m not the hugest fan of most 50k riders anyway but they could really do with slimming down and getting some more sub leaders on triple figure wages, or, as knockout suggested, just one solid one, in their roster. It does look bleak as the others said. I should point out that although Squire was already a chronic overachiever in PCM15 even in those wonderful CT class of 2017 days we had, he also joins Chaves in surely enjoying the new MO/HI systems and really needs to step up as a third leader as well as Eastman mixing it with Wellens and Kudus and Chaves riding like an 80HI guy. That plus their cobblers overachieving and some contributions from their one-dimensional domestiques could give them a shot at survival - I don’t think they are as nailed on doomed as 2018. But that’s still not much of a compliment and still not very good odds.
Croatia14: No, unfortunately not. It’s still 4 riders + maybe Bravo that can score. Eastman is better, but he’s only a #6-10 stage racer in the stacked PCT. I like Chaves, but he is okay, not more. Better than last time, but not better than the puncheurs of most opposition. Squire is not a useful third option, but will have to be a captain in many races. So yeah, they have a chance, but they have to be very lucky and a perfect chaves + Eastman combination.
Azteca
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
7
2
4
5
1
Croatia14
8
6
1
3
2
2
jandal7
8
5
2
5
3
6
knockout
8
5
1
2
2
5
Bakkafrost
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Yonathan Monsalve
68
81
76
72
79
80
77
56
65
73
69
65
72
4.100
31
Jacopo Guarnieri
75
57
65
50
76
75
81
63
81
80
67
61
74
4.100
33
Vegard Breen
77
62
70
68
72
72
71
78
73
72
74
66
68
4.100
30
Madushanka Perera
71
53
64
58
69
73
77
64
79
80
50
61
74
4.100
27
Bonaventure Uwizeyimana
71
76
72
74
76
75
77
50
56
68
69
58
74
4.100
27
Lars Van der Haar
77
66
72
66
70
72
69
75
72
70
76
78
71
4.100
29
Tony Gallopin
75
71
74
75
79
78
74
66
70
73
80
70
74
4.100
32
Paolo Scarponi
68
77
75
66
71
72
75
56
62
70
70
83
66
4.100
31
Marc Sarreau
72
60
64
55
72
73
74
70
76
77
63
64
68
4.0
27
Thomas Bonnin
65
77
72
63
71
68
69
51
54
73
76
79
63
4.100
31
Arthur Vichot
70
65
76
65
77
68
69
60
66
80
82
73
65
4.100
32
Jonas Vingegaard
65
73
67
67
72
74
73
60
61
65
67
68
67
3.7
24
Torkil Veyhe
78
66
67
63
65
69
68
51
56
78
79
71
67
4.82
26
Ben Hermans
75
62
73
69
75
67
66
58
64
70
74
60
69
4.100
34
Nur Aiman Zariff
66
58
59
59
69
63
72
60
75
76
60
66
68
3.10
23
Jai Hindley
69
68
71
66
72
69
69
55
66
69
71
68
66
3.54
24
Florian Stork
67
70
68
71
70
70
72
58
61
69
61
67
72
3.68
23
Alberto Dainese
69
61
66
60
69
72
64
60
72
74
64
69
62
1.0
22
Sulkhan Akhmaevi
65
68
66
72
65
66
67
60
61
65
61
62
68
3.14
23
Alexander Konychev
73
60
64
59
72
71
62
62
70
68
71
60
68
1.0
22
After missing promotion quite narrowly last season, Bakkafrost invested heavily into level 1 talents instead of pushing stronger for promotion. Was that a good choice?
knockout: Yes, i’d say so. The past few transfer windows have made it much more difficult to adjust to a new division as FA classes get weaker due to less disbands and the attempt to stop stat inflations. Getting possibly the best young talent out of this talent intake can only improve their long term plans by building a core that can adapt to PT more easily - especially as the team’s average age in the past was quite high. Also the team should be strong enough to survive with ease with good team leaders like Monsalve, Guarnieri, Gallopin, Brees and lots of very interesting riders behind them.
jandal: I don’t see why not - this thing really comes down to personal preference and ambition and I’d never criticise a team for leaning one way or another on the now vs future conundrum or their average age unless I thought it was really hurting them even if I have my own opinions on what I like in a team (for those of you who haven’t realised, average age under 27 and lots of green RES stats and I’m all yours). But I do think overall they made some positive moves for their future without putting themselves in any danger whatsoever thanks to returning riders such as Guarnieri, VDH, Breen and Gallopin and new acquisition Monsalve, as well as some great depth riders in behind. In fact, I believe they are still good odds to be in the Top 10 with some skill/luck in planning. Dainese is obviously awesome, not much to say there except it’s a great buy and clearly what the manager wanted.
AbhishekLFC: Not to criticize them for their talent signings, but I think they have regressed from their near-miss last season and might fall further down the pecking order at the end of the season. Their piece de resistance for the past couple of seasons - Guarnieri, has declined. Monsalve has come in but I’m not sure he’ll be more than a Top 10 stage racer and climber for them. I’m not sure that gives them enough to push for promotion again. Breen is great and he should repeat last year’s performances, and the profile related changes could even help him further but I don’t know who else can pull out top performances for them. Nothing against Dainese, he will be a star in the future, but those 550k really hurts elsewhere and I believe will hurt their points-scoring this time.
Croatia14: They signed the best talent available in Dainese, and another fantastic guy in Konychev. That’s a bunch of outstanding signings for the future. Also I don’t think the team got a lot worse. With Monsalve they have a leader that can do well with the right planning, Uwizeyimana is another awesome rider, Scarponi looks nice too. Even if they lost a couple of good guys, I don’t tink the squad really regressed. Instead, they benefited from great planning last year, and with great management they will do this again. I think they did both: Strengthen their future and prepare for the promotion battle, in which a manager like Sykkel_Freak has to be considered with such a team as a tool.
Berg has three strong sprinters but no reasonable leadout. Is that a strategy that will work for them?
AbhishekLFC: I guess it could work if they keep them apart. We’ve seen last season that not the best sprinter always wins, and you don’t need the best leadout for your sprinter to be consistent. Leadout or not, Swift should still be in with a shot at the win in every PCT race he goes to. He should probably be there in every flat classic and flat stage race that Berg ride. The others can on occasion accompany Swift, but should probably have a different calendar to fill in gaps where other teams will likely not send their better sprinters. Someone like Kupfernagel could become very handy in stage races with two or three opening flat stages if they can grab a win and a jersey or two.
knockout: First and foremost, I’m really curious how the team planned their sprint lineups. Outside of that top trio, Kortsidakis and Reckweg are the closest to a useful leadout asset but I would rather send a team consisting entirely of climbers as sprint support than sending Tzortzakis or Orken with them. Basically saying: No leadout is better than a shit leadout. I don't think going without a leadout is a terrible strategy but I also like to believe that it doesn't optimize the scoring from sprints - going against conventional wisdom can be smart sometimes but i think it puts a ceiling to the team here where the team isn't as good as the sum of its part and as a result will finish somewhere in the middle of the rankings.
jandal: For sure I think separating them should work somewhat even if I don’t love the strategy overall compared with investing in, for example, a Robert Bush-type 78COB leader who can bring in a few hundred points. That aside Swift is still a great great sprinter and a worthy buy, as is Henao to a lesser extent. However I don’t believe this set-up will get them near automatic promotion, and therefore I’m not sure new aging leaders just to keep them in the mid-table was the best strategy thinking long-term about a return to the PT.
Croatia14: As elaborated earlier, I think that this can’t be the key to success. Silvester is a great rider and so is Swift, I also like Kupfenagel. But riding alongside each other won’t work, they’ll hurt each other more than they help. But all of those need the flat classics to shine. So in my opinion they should’ve either massively invested in leadouts, swapped Swift for another rider type and trained Silvestre instead of Paulinho, or much better, took sift + training money and trade for a PCT star on top. It seems to me like the deals make them regress short and long term.
Berg
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
8
8
0
5
2
Croatia14
6
6
9
1
1
2
jandal7
7
8
9
1
3
2
knockout
6
7
8
0
1
3
Campari Asahi Procycling
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Tom Jelte Slagter
68
78
79
66
71
73
74
50
61
71
82
79
66
4.100
31
Cesare Di Maggio
65
65
82
62
73
68
65
51
65
75
67
73
62
4.100
32
Estifanos Kebede
70
76
76
66
73
70
71
61
60
72
68
63
66
4.100
32
Ricardo Ferreira
73
57
68
63
74
70
69
79
71
69
71
71
63
4.100
28
Saulo Lay
73
56
60
56
68
66
77
61
79
81
61
77
70
4.100
32
Rasmus Sterobo
70
71
63
78
74
69
69
52
56
73
57
77
78
4.100
29
Aleksej Kunshin
69
76
72
70
74
74
74
55
67
70
63
61
70
4.100
33
Jan Dieteren
67
70
77
58
75
70
68
51
63
66
80
73
58
4.100
27
Wataru Mutsumine
69
69
77
64
73
70
68
58
63
71
64
70
64
4.100
28
Sven Nooytens
75
52
64
68
76
70
70
76
69
67
71
66
68
4.100
32
Ha Jeon Jung
66
67
77
60
72
72
69
64
63
71
69
64
61
4.100
25
Filippo Fiorelli
69
70
75
64
74
73
71
50
64
69
73
71
64
4.69
26
Mark Christian
73
63
69
77
72
71
70
59
68
72
76
71
75
4.100
30
Francisco Lasca
72
58
68
65
70
69
75
66
76
74
65
68
65
4.100
32
Simone Petilli
62
75
73
58
74
74
73
50
54
70
69
71
64
4.33
27
Hideto Nakane
65
76
70
63
68
71
70
63
63
65
70
68
63
4.100
30
Sota Ikibe
63
74
73
70
70
70
72
60
62
65
73
68
70
4.100
28
Matteo Moschetti
69
58
65
65
68
69
73
64
75
76
66
65
68
3.28
24
Piet Allegaert
73
56
64
65
72
73
62
73
66
72
68
66
66
4.19
25
Dominik Neuman
70
67
71
64
67
72
74
63
68
73
70
70
66
3.34
25
Masaki Yamamoto
69
70
71
72
64
66
67
57
67
71
70
67
70
3.91
24
Vincenzo Albanese
67
70
70
58
74
70
67
60
65
64
58
70
58
3.73
24
Imerio Cima
69
60
63
59
67
68
66
56
71
69
60
59
58
2.0
23
The 23 riders riding for Campari in 2020 combine for less than 2m in wages. Will that unused cap space cost them a chance at surviving the relegation fight?
AbhishekLFC: It would take a miracle to save them unfortunately. Slagter once again, after Sauber last season, finds himself in a team that needs him to pull off the season of his life in order to save them. Di Maggio is inconsistent at best and has about 12-15 good racedays in him all year round. He will score well on those days, but it’s the other 40 that is the concern. Losing Martin, even after a second decline, is a big loss. Probably the unused wage would’ve been better used at keeping him in renewals.
knockout: Fully agree. I think Slagter would have to double his 2019 scoring to give Campari a fighting chance and I have a lot of doubts that this is realistic. I can’t see anyone else adding big points either. Ferreira performed really well last season but imo that was overperforming and I expect a regression to the norm again. Kebede has nice stats if he decides to be aggressive and Lay might win a bunch sprint in a lesser race that isn't for the specialists but both are no constant scorers so i think the team absolutely needs a miracle.
Croatia14: Yes. They should’ve resigned Dan Martin for that wage. The squad is deep even without those Yen used, but they lack leaders besides Slagter. They’re like Sauber 2019 but with less talent and less fancy riders, so I fear they’re pretty much doomed.
jandal: It’s a real shame to me really that a team can end up with so much wage cap unused and yet basically nothing great to show for it in terms of the extra budget becoming available from that decision. Boeckmans and Martin were still a duo that can help them to survival with a new leader/some depth scorers coming in, and to me the Slagter/Di Maggio duo is an ugly one to take their place in terms of how it forces them to plan Slagter in mountains or mountains/hills in a hail mary to have them both maximise their scoring, as using him in too many hill races negates di Maggio or Slagter himself. If you told me this was a very strong CT team I wouldn’t be surprised unfortunately and it’s sad to see.
Campari
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
7
2
4
6
1
Croatia14
2
5
2
3
3
4
jandal7
2
7
4
5
4
5
knockout
2
5
2
3
5
4
Desigual
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Justo Tenorio
68
84
76
80
78
76
79
59
59
67
84
68
79
4.100
31
Omar Fraile
69
76
72
79
74
76
72
58
60
66
79
65
79
4.100
30
Simon Yates
74
70
79
68
77
70
73
52
77
80
74
64
71
4.100
28
Eric Young
74
58
69
55
74
70
79
75
78
77
66
66
55
4.100
31
David Abal
66
79
68
75
71
74
71
59
56
70
69
71
75
4.100
34
Xuban Errazkin
70
72
77
68
74
73
74
64
63
72
69
67
68
4.69
24
Jack Burke
69
75
75
67
74
73
78
55
60
71
77
71
67
4.60
25
Jernej Svab
70
71
76
57
70
72
69
66
67
78
68
68
55
4.100
25
Luca Wackermann
74
68
74
53
74
74
73
56
74
72
70
64
51
4.100
28
Magno Nazaret
66
78
69
63
68
75
70
50
63
69
71
62
63
4.100
34
Daniel Eaton
75
62
69
77
74
76
74
67
62
68
70
66
77
4.100
27
Conor Dunne
66
74
74
69
71
72
73
70
62
69
74
69
69
4.100
28
Carter Jones
69
75
73
71
72
71
69
53
63
66
73
68
71
4.100
31
Nicolay Cherkasov
78
70
71
66
71
73
66
61
69
74
64
67
68
4.2
24
Jhonatan Narvaez
67
70
73
67
68
69
72
61
71
71
69
65
65
3.11
23
Carlos Verona
71
54
62
77
72
75
67
59
62
63
60
66
77
4.100
28
Erick Herrera
64
71
71
63
68
72
72
52
61
64
65
64
61
3.14
24
Federico Olei
65
66
71
61
70
68
64
50
70
71
62
61
66
3.99
24
Jaume Sureda
68
62
68
60
67
68
65
63
72
73
70
64
60
2.0
24
Brendan Rhim
65
73
68
60
66
69
70
63
62
66
66
64
62
3.4
25
Louis Visser
69
63
69
68
70
71
67
65
70
70
74
68
67
1.0
22
Can training help Simon Yates and his team improve their performances after failing to meet expectations last year?
AbhishekLFC: They’ll sure hope so! Last season, they were billed as near odds-on favourites for promotion but ended up outside the Top 10. Yates, with his +2 improvement in sprints should be a better asset than last season, especially with the ‘smoothening’ of hilly profiles. Tenorio also benefits from a declining Pluchkin, but the entry of Gesink, Kudus and Wellens can negate that advantage too. However, he should still be a Top 3 climber in the division. Fraile had a great season last time and will need to get close to that level for his team to benefit. Young is a good signing for consistent performances in the sprints and a little less consistent ones in the cobbles. Good depth in both the mountains and the hills will definitely help their leaders.
jandal: Keeping to themselves for the most part and training Yates could well be a good move in the chase for promotion to be honest with it potentially being a more open and maybe even less quality promotion battle this season compared to last, though I’m not sure it’s enough anyway given that below the top three, one of whom we don’t know if he will be great, they look fairly mid to lower-mid table in terms of their depth scoring (though their domestiques are good). I’ve given my thoughts on Tenorio and Fraile already, but Mre if you’re being lazy and just reading your own then I can tell you I think they’re both lovely but I’m not sure Tenorio can improve his scoring too much and Fraile might dip a little from last year. For the ineffable Mr. Yates I can only say I’d be surprised if he didn’t improve thanks to the profiles relying less on the MO stat as Abhi mentioned but also new races like Grand Prix Cyclistes and the altered GP Lugano offering more to the hill-sprinters than last season’s calendar did. Young perhaps lacks a little RES and/or FLA to be the Saber or Dzamastagic type power sprinter who can overachieve in flat classics to go with his COB stat though there’s certainly races for him to do well in and he’s a decent signing. Also shoutout to the Wackermann signing, could be a very handy one as a hilly sprint leadout if the AI works him that way, and a better one than Kump, Houle or Ackermann have in a race where the hills start getting to the low 70s guys. For me they haven’t made enough improvements by adding more leaders for promotion but they should improve.
knockout: Something I miss in the two previous replies is that the team also lost the 335 points that Rick Zabel scored for them last season. While I think Yates will be much improved compared to last season, I think that more or less matches that loss. Tenorio might score a bit more, Fraile a bit less and Abal + Young should roughly match the loss of Kozhatayev and Tsatevich. Add that all together and you have a squad that is similar strong to last season or maybe slightly stronger. And while hindsight is 2020, I think that we overrated the team more than they underperformed last season so I expect them to be in the promotion fight this season but it’s far from a guarantee.
Croatia14: Yes, I believe Simon will be massive. I like him a lot more in this year's competition, and he should be the good second option and improve the squad. However, knockout is right: Zabel, Kozhatayev and Tsatevich are tough losses, and I think Tenorio and Fraile will score less this season. Simon can do a lot, and depth improvements will help them too. But it won’t be enough to bring them far on top of last year's scoring and in the top drivers seat for promotion, but more in a position where they’re on the verge and anything could happen. In any case, Yates’ training could be the key reason to success.
Desigual
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
10
8
3
2
8
6
Croatia14
9
6
2
1
6
9
jandal7
9
8
3
2
7
7
knockout
9
6
3
2
7
9
DK - SVA Žalgiris
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Stefan Denifl
69
83
75
71
73
69
74
53
65
63
72
63
71
4.100
33
Oscar Guerao
74
57
65
57
71
64
81
68
83
76
71
78
57
4.100
32
Robin Carpenter
67
76
76
68
72
71
73
52
66
72
72
69
68
4.100
28
Benat Intxausti
68
80
69
75
75
75
72
50
60
67
65
62
75
4.100
34
Tim Dees
71
75
72
77
74
76
72
54
60
64
66
62
76
4.100
32
Evaldas Siskevicius
70
73
78
65
73
72
68
50
71
75
72
64
65
4.100
32
Giorgi Nareklishvili
74
68
69
78
70
74
69
67
66
67
76
58
76
4.100
27
Muhamma Afif Ahmad Zamri
70
75
70
75
72
74
75
52
59
69
71
59
75
4.100
28
Matthias Krizek
70
74
75
66
72
71
75
52
67
76
75
62
66
4.100
32
Mihkel Räim
74
62
67
61
73
72
75
71
76
75
76
68
74
4.100
27
Alexandr Nepomnyachsniy
73
51
63
66
72
64
76
75
77
74
69
76
66
4.100
33
Darijus Dzervus
73
54
66
71
73
72
75
57
77
77
71
65
76
4.100
30
Andreas Hofer
73
58
65
78
74
72
68
55
63
68
75
64
78
4.100
29
Alexandr Ovsyannikov
70
61
67
64
72
71
74
72
75
74
71
72
64
3.3
23
Egidijus Juodvalkis
64
75
73
61
69
70
71
54
67
68
68
58
61
4.100
32
Welle Jallays
75
61
71
75
69
74
73
64
61
63
81
64
75
4.100
31
Jan Drago Petelin
68
74
70
62
69
69
68
50
54
71
68
60
61
3.88
24
Justas Beniusis
70
65
57
75
68
70
68
56
57
66
67
68
74
3.6
23
Lucas Hamilton
68
71
70
64
67
71
72
55
64
73
71
69
66
3.28
24
Itamar Einhorn
70
60
60
62
67
70
63
60
74
72
60
63
64
2.0
23
Venantas Lasinis
66
70
68
68
67
68
68
59
61
67
66
68
68
2.45
23
Beka Nareklishvili
65
61
65
68
66
68
68
69
64
70
67
61
69
1.0
24
Did Zalgiris bargain to a promotion contender or is the path of least resistance not as good as it looks on first glance?
AbhishekLFC: I’d like to say yes (mostly to ward off the Zalgiris curse that looms large above us) but will say that they’ve ensured that they stay well away from the relegation places and even cement a 10th-15th place in the PCT. They did brilliantly in the off-season to pull off some surprisingly cheap deals. They were not able to sell Intxausti though, but that could return as a boon rather than a bane, with a second decent climber behind Denifl. The lack of scoring in the hills and cobbles will hurt them somewhat, and will probably be the difference between them not being able to push for a Top 10 spot.
jandal: Well no to the first part, but also I’m not sure about the second part - not sure I have ever looked at a team with Guerao and Carpenter in their top three OVL and thought “oh yeah that’s a promotion contender”! But in all seriousness I think Abhishek is right to give them credit (and not just in fear of the curse) for their transfer manoeuvring as they have done a great job to craft a very safe team in a year when it was very hard for promoting teams to get it done - perhaps I too should start alternating between insulting riders and offering basement fees for them because this is an impressive squad and over half of them arrived this year. They have a great depth in domestiques which should help their leaders reach their potential and score a bit themselves, as well as the TTT train quadsas worked so hard to build up this year which looks very solid. I also hope my man Siskevicius proves Abhishek wrong about a lack of hills scoring though!
knockout: Like every other baltic team, they did a good job this year to strengthen in transfers. Buying Denifl was a fantastic piece of business and will do them well. Guerao should also be solid but not great. Their resistance will be a worry for them but won’t shut them useless - especially if they are placed into the right startlists. However, one of the biggest strengths is the depth throughout the team. I see a chance that there are no less than ten scorers in the triple digits which is impressive for a first time PCT team. A good TTT team and solid depth on the hills without a top leader but with MY man Siskevicius at the front will add to that trickling points income. I can’t see them having to do anything with relegation which is far more than most other promoted teams will hear about their team from me. Though, I can't see promotion on the cards for this year either and next year will demand another rebuild as their scorers have the same age as your average Beatles cover band.
Croatia14: I like their business, but they should not be a promotion contender. Denifl is nice and I like Dees a lot, but Guerao looks not better than fine. I like the TTT and the additional riders from free agency, where Zalgiris did a fantastic job. The big questions will be raised in terms of consistency, and I don’t really like the outlook there. While the controversial manager probably won’t promote with the Lithuanian project, but he deserves a pat on the back from a fellow baltic manager for the great transfer season in a difficult period at DK Zalgiris.
Zalgiris
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
4
7
2
8
5
Croatia14
8
3
5
2
5
7
jandal7
7
4
7
3
7
2
knockout
7
5
6
2
6
6
Duolingo
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Robert Gesink
71
81
79
78
75
77
77
64
59
65
70
64
78
4.100
34
Bruno Borges
70
70
80
60
75
73
70
54
71
81
75
65
60
4.100
29
Yoeri Havik
73
56
64
56
74
68
75
76
79
76
60
64
66
4.100
29
Gerald Ciolek
73
50
64
59
70
66
73
58
81
76
50
59
59
4.100
34
Choon Huat Goh
69
74
76
70
74
74
74
62
62
68
79
65
69
4.100
30
Damien Howson
71
59
65
80
73
74
72
58
64
68
72
63
80
4.100
28
Kyeng Ho Min
68
77
74
66
75
76
69
63
62
64
67
69
66
4.62
24
Yoshimitsu Hiratsuka
67
77
74
63
73
74
77
51
50
60
63
61
63
4.100
32
Kristian Sobota
72
54
60
67
74
65
76
61
78
78
58
61
67
4.100
32
Antonio Barbio
68
74
72
75
72
73
68
59
63
67
76
71
75
4.100
27
Tim Merlier
72
56
68
58
71
71
64
73
77
74
63
72
60
4.6
28
Walter Trillini
70
64
75
65
75
69
73
57
73
76
70
67
73
4.100
29
Rui Oliveira
69
66
74
70
75
71
67
66
74
76
64
67
71
4.21
24
Dominique Cornu
71
63
68
77
68
70
66
65
57
67
71
58
77
4.100
35
Zakkari Dempster
73
53
63
78
69
72
71
59
70
70
59
56
78
4.100
33
Shane Archbold
73
58
62
77
72
71
70
60
73
75
68
66
67
4.100
31
Zoltan Sipos
68
68
70
74
74
71
69
55
61
64
69
67
75
4.28
29
Nicola Bagioli
68
69
72
63
72
70
70
60
68
73
73
65
64
3.20
25
Siim Kiskonen
70
59
68
68
75
74
67
68
71
73
68
72
67
2.16
23
Alexandr Kulikovskiy
68
64
70
64
65
72
66
58
71
72
65
67
66
1.57
23
Nikita Razumov
70
62
68
74
72
68
69
56
64
66
67
64
74
3.47
24
Elias Abou Rachid
68
70
67
70
69
70
72
58
62
67
68
65
69
3.66
25
Gijs Van Hoecke
69
60
70
67
68
69
70
70
67
70
64
63
67
3.88
29
Norman Vahtra
67
58
68
55
69
69
67
69
71
70
66
65
55
1.26
24
Markus Kopfauf
66
62
66
63
65
71
65
52
71
70
70
68
77
3.58
24
Two of Duolingo’s new leaders, Gesink and Ciolek, are 34 years old already. Is this their last chance to get back to ProTour before having to make a major rebuild?
AbhishekLFC: Duolingo have made wise investments in the off-season and I truly believe they should be pushing for promotion this time around. If it doesn’t happen, it would mean another big overhaul next time, with most their leaders and even the domestiques going to decline again.
knockout: Despite his age, Gesink is a fantastic rider that will score tons for them in 2020. However, I’m not convinced that the rest of the team is strong enough to push for promotion. Borges and Howson are two solid riders that might benefit from race profiles being more suited to one one-dimensional stat sets while Ciolek is past his profile and won’t be a major factor in any promotion campaign. I predict a midseason finish followed by a major rebuild next year.
jandal: Yes, obviously with good renewals they could end up keeping them but I doubt they would or that that would be the most beneficial line of attack for them. So, will they be rebuilding for promotion or survival next year? Well, Gesink as we’ve already gushed about is a very very classy rider to be bringing into the second tier even after two declines, however Borges, Ciolek, Howson and Havik, nice though they are, especially the first one, don’t quite live up to their new talisman in terms of scoring or, crucially for a team looking to promote, reliability. Below that is obviously their very good TTT squad as well as a whole host of solid domestiques if not great minor scorers. However one point in their favour is, as much as we bag on their two older leaders, their average is still a very normal 28 and they have many developing riders who can form the domestique core of whatever they do next, with some even being leaders of the future, as well as Howson, Borges and Havik having at least four more years leading, so I think the rebuild might not be much of a task as we make out. Cornu and Dempster, key TTT cogs, will both decline next year though, the Belgian quite hard.
Croatia14: They certainly have a turning point here. It’s do or die, and I have them more of the die side tbh. Gesink didn’t take the best yeear to dominate in PCT, and he’d hinder the second best rider in Borges if you want to maximize his scoring. For me Duolingo needs to promote, but I am quite sure that it will be difficult for them to reach such glory.
Who will pick up points for Fablok besides Wellens and Benoot?
AbhishekLFC: Props to Fablok and their manager for trying to completely change direction in the off-season, but it looks like, unfortunately, it has not worked! Wellens and Benoot will score points, and score them well, and probably keep them away from relegation danger. The likes of Raileanu and Poljanski, among others will give them some depth scoring and stage results, but not much more. Stepniak looks to be hit and miss, more miss than hit really, while the reverse can be said of Goldstein if I’m being considerate, but there’s not much else to talk about!
knockout: I think their climbers’ depth is their best source of points outside of that top duo as Poljanski, Raileanu, Hacecky, Bernard, Bostner, Rumac and Shapira can make a very complete lineup for uphill races. While they remind me a lot of my own setup for the mountains, there isn't a lot of variation between their skill sets which can hurt their scoring a bit. Outside of that, it’s really down to Wellens and Benoot to deliver. While both of them are obviously too strong to risk relegation, they also are not the world beaters that would be necessary to lift the rest of the team into the promotion battle. I think they will finish in the bottom half of the rankings - although without relegation worries.
jandal: Raileanu and Hacecky look like the individual best of their great climbing depth in terms of scoring themselves. Rumac looks like a very cool rider with the HI-SP combo for maybe some breakaways or surprise reduced sprint results, and Stepniak can always pick up scraps in well-planned sprints. If Venturini finds his ways into breaks, especially mid-stage cobbled attacks, he could also be very handy.
Croatia14: I think Benoot is massively overrated (hello Alak). So Wellens is a big time scorer, while Benoot is only a decent one. Apart from that there is no scorer, they all need breaks. Raileanu and Poljanski are okay, but without sprint, flat and TT they’re not that great. Bernard might be the best, but they need some luck from the breaks or similar. They need their depth to secure a mid-table squad, that is for sure.
Fablok
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
7
1
4
6
3
Croatia14
9
4
2
3
3
8
jandal7
8
7
5
3
4
5
knockout
9
5
2
3
3
8
Farfetch Pro Cycling
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Salem Kemboi
78
60
63
63
74
77
81
50
80
80
61
68
81
4.100
25
Adam Yates
71
79
76
71
79
80
76
56
67
76
71
71
71
4.100
28
Hugh Carthy
71
81
75
67
77
76
78
56
60
69
65
65
65
4.100
26
Ruben Guerreiro
71
76
77
62
73
73
77
63
72
72
61
67
62
4.100
26
Yoann Paillot
70
70
71
80
75
74
68
56
63
64
56
71
80
4.100
29
Anthony Turgis
73
66
79
65
76
78
70
65
70
77
83
67
68
4.100
26
Tosh Van der Sande
75
65
70
58
78
73
76
66
79
79
54
60
58
4.100
30
Alberto Bettiol
72
71
77
68
78
75
74
66
71
77
75
68
67
4.100
27
Frederico Figueiredo
73
76
73
72
77
75
77
55
59
68
67
69
72
4.100
29
Xhuliano Kamberaj
74
63
69
67
72
73
77
67
77
76
64
66
70
4.81
26
Julius van den Berg
76
57
64
58
75
76
72
75
70
70
75
71
64
4.62
24
Jodok Salzmann
72
62
71
64
75
75
70
75
66
71
70
69
64
4.36
25
Milan Menten
71
64
73
67
73
75
72
75
67
68
62
57
67
4.75
24
Stefan De Bod
72
69
70
75
74
76
70
54
60
68
66
69
75
4.47
24
Gaspar Goncalves
68
72
72
55
69
69
66
56
67
72
60
65
61
3.78
25
Enzo Wouters
68
65
67
58
70
72
72
62
72
73
54
59
58
2.3
24
Steff Cras
65
71
68
67
72
73
71
58
60
66
60
66
64
2.31
24
Zisis Soulious
68
68
68
65
72
70
65
51
70
72
57
73
65
1.40
24
Edoardo Affini
70
64
66
71
72
73
68
64
64
69
71
68
72
2.40
24
Inigo Elosegui
62
68
66
65
70
73
74
60
60
68
64
65
64
1.0
22
Viktor Verschaeve
64
67
68
64
69
68
66
62
62
68
67
64
63
1.0
22
Farfetch has a strong base to build around for the future but is the current quality in the roster enough to guarantee promotion?
knockout: I don’t think the roster is good enough to be guaranteed promotion but it should be strong enough to compete for promotion and with good planning and a bit of luck going their way, I predict they will finish on a promotion finish. Adam Yates has been a pcm darling for years and I wouldn't expect that to change this year while Carthy should be very strong in the pure mountain races. A key question for the season is whether they can find the right races to split them up properly as they both lack a bit of time trialling but at least their PTHC schedule looks promising with Portugal, East Java, Balkans and Maroc all on it. Kemboi is one of the most exciting young sprinters around and the step down to PCT and his training might set him up for a breakout year. Paillot and Turgis are two solid leaders for flat and hilly races and while they are not outstanding, they will add their fair share of points to the team scoring. But that’s not everything, the team also has some nice second row rider behind them: Guerreiro might not have a high fighter stat but he can sprint quite well for a climber/puncheur and i think that could be a fairly useful skill set to have. Bettiol has a great skill set for a superdomestique / attacker on the hills while Figuereido did well in PCT last year as a strong stage race domestique / depth GC scorer. Tosh van der Sande can score well if he avoids some of the big hitters in the sprints. And the team even has a trio of solid cobblers for the C2 races needed to develop their talents. I think that this sort of depth will push them into the promotion spots.
AbhishekLFC: Like knockout mentioned, promotion is not a guarantee, but they should be in the running all season, and will probably make it into Top 5 in the end. Yates is a great asset for stage races, Carthy will be good in the mountains, Paillot should be great in TTs, and Turgis should perform better than the 79 hill rating. Kemboi is likely to perform better than the 80/80 as well, although with sprinters you can never be sure. What I’m leading to with all of the above is to say that they’ve got all terrains barring cobbles covered, where too, they have three exciting young prospects, and it won’t be too hard to work around the latter when planning their calendar. Scoring points in all terrains and in every race they enter is probably the winning formula that they’ve cracked this time.
jandal: I really love this squad, which should come as no surprise to anybody who's seen how similar mine and jph’s transfer targets have been in the past at times. I’ve already gushed about their future to an embarrassing extent, but their current setup looks like promotion calibre already for me quite strongly, as we’ve all said plenty it’s an open race but they’re giving me one of the stronger vibes of the teams fighting for automatic promotion and I think that will end up reflected in my ranking. In Kemboi, Yates and Carthy the quality is clear, what great riders they are. Kemboi is a truly fantastic flatbeast-sprinter especially with his training boost, Yates is a great climber with some punch and hill skills and Carthy should do well in the mountains too. Guerreiro is very cool but often could get relegated to superdomestique (a role which he’ll excel in I’m sure). Paillot at 29 is a real grandpa in this setup but has quality clearly. Turgis is perhaps one of the few question marks in terms of quality for me, I really want to like him and I’m sure he’ll do alright at the very least, and if his MO doesn’t end up too big an obstacle then I think he’ll be very good and something of an underrated scorer. Tosh van der Sande occupies a similar niche to Kemboi but should get his own chances and do well with them. Bettiol I think is just a very cool rider and makes me wonder why a 260k Meurisse would have been needed, he looks like a great Calmejane type and we all saw how well they can turn out in Balkans International last year. The cobbled trio could underperform quite easily but if they don’t then they are quite cool attacking options and should overperform in terms of minor scoring (and great for the C2 cobbled races as knockout said if they go there). Kamberaj as a great Kemboi leadout, Figuereido’s backups, I could go on and on and on…
Did I mention the RES stats? If you didn’t notice, I’m in love...
Croatia14: I disagree. For me promotion should be a lock if they don’t try strange experiments with the Tour of America and stuff. The team is just too good on every terrain, they have multiple leaders on every terrain and the big time riders on the uphill roads. I can’t look past Farfetch for promotion, and they even have the potential to win the title with the upside in many of their riders.
Farfetch
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
6
7
3
8
3
Croatia14
9
6
8
3
6
3
jandal7
7
6
8
4
6
7
knockout
7
6
8
3
6
7
GCN Racing
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Maurice Schreurs
70
69
81
67
76
72
71
62
71
74
69
66
66
4.100
32
Kenji Itami
75
63
61
63
71
67
78
64
80
82
50
53
63
4.100
32
Jesse Sergent
79
65
69
80
69
74
71
53
61
51
70
59
80
4.100
32
Alex Dowsett
70
65
80
64
74
69
67
53
66
71
75
63
63
4.100
32
Michael Matthews
76
59
65
64
72
67
73
66
79
79
65
64
64
4.100
30
Scott Thwaites
73
59
65
61
74
70
76
76
78
76
60
70
61
4.100
30
Michael Vingerling
71
55
62
65
72
66
76
68
79
79
57
68
76
4.100
30
Dan McLay
73
56
67
55
74
72
79
72
77
76
62
66
55
4.100
28
Jarlinson Pantano Gomez
66
79
71
54
73
74
74
51
50
68
63
68
54
4.100
32
Erik Mohs
72
53
62
63
68
59
71
60
80
77
50
70
63
4.100
34
Clenne Morvan Moulingui
74
53
71
52
71
71
53
78
65
68
64
71
52
4.100
25
Pavel Potocki
68
77
72
70
74
71
75
54
62
64
66
69
70
4.100
27
Mikel Landa
65
69
78
57
70
69
70
50
61
69
74
67
57
4.100
31
Michael Cuming
70
74
74
72
74
70
71
58
64
69
74
63
72
4.100
30
Geremie Nzeke
67
72
76
61
72
67
67
63
66
68
75
74
63
4.100
30
Charles Anguilet
65
76
74
63
69
71
73
50
57
64
71
60
63
4.100
31
Gasore Hategeka
67
71
76
65
72
67
66
55
61
64
69
65
64
4.100
33
Geoffroy Ngandamba
72
59
69
73
73
70
67
74
70
71
72
66
71
4.100
31
Stephen Williams
67
74
70
66
71
74
73
63
65
70
71
71
66
3.15
24
Pieter Jacobs
71
56
62
60
73
68
63
76
63
60
67
60
60
4.100
34
Rui Pedro Vinhas
64
77
67
59
69
70
66
50
53
57
63
63
57
4.100
34
John Archibald
70
61
64
76
69
72
62
55
60
67
64
55
75
4.100
30
Owain Doull
72
59
65
73
71
70
68
71
73
73
63
65
75
4.100
27
Steven Burke
74
54
60
76
71
72
73
60
59
62
69
66
76
4.100
32
Max Stedman
67
65
69
62
64
69
65
61
69
69
63
62
66
2.0
24
Matthew Walls
67
61
60
60
68
66
62
60
71
71
60
63
68
1.0
22
Felix Gall
66
68
68
62
67
67
65
58
61
65
62
63
61
1.0
22
GCN tried to avoid relegation by signing multiple 32 year old leaders that can score for them. Was that attempt successful or are they still in danger to relegate?
AbhishekLFC: They did well in certain cases but a couple of decisions is where they held themselves back. I like the signings of Schreurs, Itami and Sergent but don’t think Dowsett will be of much help, and can even impede Schreurs if they race together. The decision to have six sprinters is also a dicey one for me, although I do like the look of Thwaites, besides the afore-mentioned Itami. Pantano won’t get them much as lead climber. They also have too many riders on the roster, which could’ve gone towards better riders for sure. So while I think they got a good Top 3 and Thwaites, the rest of it still makes them liable to be in relegation danger, but I think they’ll manage to stay up.
knockout: There seems to be a bit of a consensus by earlier published predictions that most predict them to be in relegation danger but not actually in the relegation spots and just like Abhishek i will follow that prediction. There are quite a few question marks and the biggest name might be the biggest question mark: Schreurs is one of those one dimensional puncheurs that everyone suddenly dreaded after last season. He will be crucial to GCNs season and I think he will improve on his scoring from last season a bit. Sergent and Itami are two more very solid leaders that should be able to add 300 points each to the team's scoring board. Then they have solid depth - particularly in the sprints but also on the cobbles that can add further points. It will be a long season for them but ultimately, I think that it will be enough to save themselves - barely.
Croatia14: They are in danger, that is for sure. Schreuers is okay, but is he a puncheur of quality on PCM18!? Can Dowsett be a good second option on his second stint? Sergent is good, but what is he really worth without a TTT? Itami looks solid, but does he score well without hill/res/cob? The sprinters depth doesn’t properly make sense, the cobblers are also not more than solid. The 80’s stats shine bright, but I think they are more of a blunder. They need the depth riders like Potocki or Cuming to rise to the occasion and save the day, otherwise I think GCN is not good enough to avoid relegation. Pinot would’ve been needed to save them, now I’m sceptical.
GCN
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
3
7
7
6
6
6
Croatia14
2
6
5
4
6
4
jandal7
2
7
7
5
4
3
knockout
2
6
7
5
6
2
Kraftwerk Man Machine
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
David De la Cruz
69
78
75
74
72
76
75
56
60
73
65
73
74
4.100
31
Mark Cavendish
71
55
63
64
71
68
75
68
81
78
58
63
74
4.100
34
Marco Haller
72
61
65
56
72
71
76
58
80
79
66
64
71
4.100
29
Pello Bilbao
71
67
79
65
77
71
71
51
71
75
67
66
61
4.100
30
Dominik Nerz
70
80
72
73
75
72
74
56
64
68
65
60
73
4.100
31
Arvin Moazemi
67
73
78
69
72
72
75
62
65
73
65
63
67
4.100
30
Eugert Zhupa
75
56
67
65
78
74
67
77
74
68
67
59
65
4.100
30
Willi Willwohl
73
53
64
56
71
67
78
65
79
78
61
64
56
4.100
26
Domenik Klemme
69
72
78
65
71
67
68
52
64
63
57
60
65
4.100
34
Robert Kiserlovski
68
78
73
70
69
72
69
50
55
63
69
64
69
4.100
34
Nico Denz
71
74
76
67
70
70
70
65
63
73
71
65
71
4.100
26
Lucas Schädlich
70
54
64
80
70
71
73
62
70
76
64
67
80
4.100
32
Alexandre Geniez
67
75
71
74
71
73
77
53
57
71
66
70
74
4.100
32
Josue Gonzalez Cortes
72
72
74
74
70
72
73
62
71
72
70
68
74
4.100
32
Jocelin Maillet
64
77
70
60
69
76
69
51
55
77
65
65
60
4.100
32
Westley Gough
76
59
64
74
69
71
75
52
76
76
60
55
74
4.100
32
Florian Scheit
66
72
76
58
72
71
69
50
64
71
77
66
58
4.100
29
Gennadiy Tatarinov
69
75
74
63
71
71
68
57
65
73
76
63
63
4.100
29
Jetse Bol
75
68
76
68
71
70
74
62
62
67
73
64
68
4.100
31
Aiman Cahyadi
70
70
75
66
70
71
70
58
68
69
66
70
66
4.100
27
Sang Hong Park
72
61
72
67
73
70
73
66
75
76
61
67
70
4.100
31
Burr Ho
68
73
73
73
68
73
71
61
65
71
65
66
71
4.100
28
Remco Broers
76
54
60
63
76
71
69
75
65
69
66
76
63
4.100
32
Gianni Vermeersch
75
63
70
61
72
77
65
73
72
72
60
78
63
4.50
28
Gabor Kasa
70
71
72
74
74
70
71
58
63
66
67
65
74
4.100
31
Max Walsleben
72
59
67
67
72
68
61
74
68
70
70
72
70
4.100
30
Fabien Grellier
74
65
71
57
66
68
63
72
64
65
59
64
59
4.14
26
Can a team that has Cavendish as the highest paid rider in 2020 survive the battle against relegation?
knockout: Normally the answer should be no as Cavendish is past his prime and will score less than half of his 2019 points but Kraftwerk has tremendous depth and no level 1-3 talents that require “wasted” race slots. In the mountains, Kraftwerk has Dominik “always solid, never outstanding” Nerz and David de la Cruz who should be far better than the 175 points he scored last season. In the hills, the team has former Bikex duo Bilbao and Arvin “Evonik didn’t want to keep me” Moazemi that could be a nice 1-2 punch with slightly different strengths that is ideal for race planning. Behind those four riders the team also has Nico “not that” Denz, Florian “G” Scheit, Kiserlovski, Gonzalez Cortes, Jetse “Bol” Bol, Geniez, Tatarinov, Domenik “I needed to turn 34 to finally be used as domestique” Klemme, Maillot, and countless other solid riders who should be great to plan due to various different skill sets in terms of TT abilities, attacking spirit, climbing and punching background. They have a strong TT leader in Lucas “Evonik never wanted me” Schädlich and lots of riders with solid TT abilities to maximize results from races with a TTT. Behind Cavendish they have two more sprinters that can add to the scoring in Marco “I was an Evonik rider for a day in 2015” Haller and Willi “Evonik developed me” Willwohl. Did I forget anything? Oh yeah: Cobbles and guess what? They also have a solid cobbles team. Zhupa might be far from outstanding, but he is solid enough for mandatory PTHC and HC races and can sprint for minor positions. He is assisted by no less than four 72+ CB domestiques, most notably Remco Broers and Gianni “Evonik transfer target 2021” Vermeersch. Their depth should also give them the ability to send stronger riders into breaks than most other teams and due to that, they can expect better scoring from breaks than most other teams. Add all of that depth together and I see a fairly realistic chance to survive.
AbhishekLFC: Kraftwerk have been one of the teams to follow for me but they had a really hard time in the transfers initially to get in leaders of their choice. However, I think they recovered well with the signings of DLC, Bilbao, Moazemi and Zhupa. They have depth for ages and that should make for the lack of a top leader in any terrain. The only decision that I didn’t like was keeping an aging Cavendish on 280k wages when that surely could’ve gone to a better, younger rider. This combined with the 27 rider team size is perhaps where they lost out on the chance to really improve the team and try to push up the table. I do believe they’ll survive though, just about, with DLC likely to be the biggest reason for the same.
Croatia14: To be honest their team looks like a very good team. For the Continental Tour. They lack THE PCT leader that is necessary in a normal case. However, they have loads of depth that this season may turn my mind. They’ve got so many great riders on good wages, which is the turning side of the Cav-wage-question. Cav of course is too high, but Nerz, Denz, Geniez, Gonzalez Cortes (my love), Bol (also my love) and more are on great wages, they have an awesome score on the depth chart on any terrain. If they can get their depth to work, then they might place themselves mid-table despite having only secondary leaders at most.
Kraftwerk
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
5
4
6
2
Croatia14
6
4
5
4
6
5
jandal7
6
6
6
4
6
3
knockout
7
5
5
2
6
5
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Fernando Gaviria
76
63
72
65
74
76
80
72
81
84
68
71
71
4.100
26
Sam Oomen
71
80
75
74
78
77
78
56
63
69
72
68
77
4.100
25
Niccolo Bonifazio
79
50
66
55
68
75
71
56
80
80
58
72
70
4.100
27
Kenneth Vanbilsen
78
50
69
63
80
74
75
80
72
71
72
61
63
4.100
30
Laurens De Plus
72
76
78
64
74
73
71
57
60
72
68
66
65
4.100
25
Manuel Senni
71
77
73
74
76
79
76
59
66
72
66
73
74
4.100
28
Jakub Mareczko
74
53
61
57
71
73
79
50
78
77
61
66
75
4.100
26
Michael Kolar
65
77
75
61
70
71
71
50
54
66
72
60
61
4.100
28
Isaac Bolivar
73
61
66
69
74
70
69
77
64
69
68
75
69
4.100
29
Kristoffer Skjerping
67
70
77
62
71
67
68
52
58
65
62
73
62
4.100
27
Patrick Gamper
73
62
65
72
73
74
67
73
63
70
71
71
72
3.19
23
Louis Verhelst
71
56
73
65
72
69
68
74
62
68
67
71
65
4.100
30
Jenthe Biermans
77
55
61
64
71
74
65
71
66
67
77
69
66
4.100
25
Wout Van Aert
75
63
66
70
72
73
72
68
64
68
69
75
79
4.100
26
Alessandro Fedeli
66
68
72
62
68
67
63
57
64
69
64
62
64
3.23
24
Szymon Sajnok
70
61
64
73
67
73
67
63
70
70
62
69
74
3.34
23
Aaron Verwilst
70
65
65
64
65
68
63
66
63
65
72
63
64
2.0
23
Alessandro Covi
64
67
68
61
66
66
63
60
64
62
60
62
62
1.0
22
Sasha Weemaes
68
60
61
68
70
66
62
55
69
70
67
63
68
1.0
22
Stan Dewulf
63
65
64
60
60
62
66
68
65
62
62
57
58
3.99
23
Gaviria's wage demands have been met with public outrage by his manager. Is he already good enough to lead a team to promotion?
AbhishekLFC: Promotion? That’s pushing it! I think Lierse need Gaviria just to stay at the same level as last season. If anything, Sam Oomen might prove to be the difference maker between Lierse being anonymous in mid-table and pushing for a Top 10 finish. Oomen was already regularly outperforming his stats last season and could do it again. Having lost a lot of depth this off-season, their two leaders need to step up and live up to their improved stats.
knockout: Looking at the post renewals DB I was sure that Lierse was going to promote even when looking at the wage bill. Gaviria is already the Haaland of sprinting and he should still improve while Sam Oomen is due to a fantastic season - dominating the U25 competitions and being very strong against all other ages too. Despite coming off a very strong lvl 4 season already, I think he can nearly double his scoring. That duo plus Le Plus and Senni is incredible already. However, I don't like the moves that Lierse did to get back under the salary cap. I would have sold Bonifazio as his climbing weakness will hold him back in many races that might not be on Gaviria's schedule and he seems to be too expensive in wages to be a bit of #2 sprinter / leadout kinda guy. Instead I would surely have kept Moscon who earns 140k less than Bonifazio which opens room for another 190k wage rider replacing a min wage just-another-guy. Moscon would be the perfect partner for De Plus for the hills as a partnership between two different types of hill riders and that saved wage could have been used to either add further depth, maybe even a secondary leader of sorts or avoid selling some of their sold assets. I still think they should and will be in contention for promotion but they really should have been far stronger at this point with a better transfer period.
Croatia14: Yes for sure. Gaviria in fact is massively underpaid looking at the averages, which makes the statements of oilfahrd even more outrageous. The squad is young, the squad is good. I agree they should’ve kept Moscon (and if possible van Asbroeck) and sold Mareczko and Bonifazio if that would’ve been possible. However, the squad is still incredibly strong and almost any rider will score better than his main stats suggest. It may be a reach for some, but for me Lierse is a lock for promotion if they don’t screw up their planning massively.
jandal: Yes I think they have finally turned the brilliant talent squad into team leaders capable of at least making a credible go at promotion and I very much consider Lierse in my scrum of automatic promotion contenders that seems to stretch most of the way down the Top 10. Gaviria is brilliant and although the somewhat wage-inflicted losses of great riders in TVA and Moscon hurt I think they were the right riders to let go and overall the team still looks stronger than last season. Haven’t seen much love for Bonifazio yet but he could be a great option for the pancake profiles with that FL-RES combo, even if in the flat classics where he might otherwise be a Rowe-type attacking sprinter he’ll be blocked by the mercurial Colombian. TVA was a talisman but scored surprisingly weakly last year and doesn’t gel with Gaviria for me to make both riders wages worth it (says the guy who continues to employ both Rowe and Houle) and so despite him being a hugely quality rider to let go I think it may turn out to be the right call given the wage cap troubles. Oomen should be great and Senni and De Plus are great riders in support, while one half of the team’s iconic leading duo in Vanbilsen still remains as one of the nicest second-tier cobblers in the division. Promotion? Why not!
A strong leader on every terrain: On which terrain will Mapei score the most?
AbhishekLFC: I want to say hills, but there’s Beltran there, so could be an issue. I want to next say cobbles, but is there enough RDs to let Trentin get that? It’s between those for me. I’ll still say Buchmann at this stage as punchers have a lot of RDs to exploit and enough perfectly suiting races to choose from in the PCT.
jandal: I was considering a cheeky TTs answer here and still might convince myself of it as I write this answer but unfortunately they’re not quite top dogs in the division for TTTs to make that work. Therefore I’ll go for hills thanks to the possibility for Favilli and even Guldhammer and Trentin if they take in some hybrid racing to provide some nice backup scoring behind Buchmann.
knockout: In theory it’s an interesting question as Mapei has three leaders that should be roughly said of a similar strength but due to the exodus on the hills, Buchmann looks a good bet to score the most points for his team. I also rate Trentin very highly but due to the lack of cobbles RDs he probably won’t match Buchmanns scoring. I’ve read the sentiment that Guldhammer might be a puncheur in disguise but i disagree with it a bit. However, i think he should be planned as if he has no TT abilities so I’d focus on races like Tour de Maroc or Tour of Japan for him.
Croatia14: It should be cobbles but they don’t have the depth to back it up. But to be fair, they have nowhere real depth. At the end of the day I agree with jandals assessment that it will be on the hills, eventhough I still like Guldhammer there in some races. Let’s specify the category to races that have both hill and mountain influence.
Mapei
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
9
7
7
8
7
Croatia14
8
8
7
8
9
4
jandal7
7
8
8
9
9
4
knockout
7
8
8
8
9
6
Minions
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Rigoberto Uran
71
81
73
77
74
80
75
54
54
70
66
61
77
4.100
33
Daniel Vesely
73
60
68
57
74
68
76
57
81
80
61
71
57
4.100
28
Dimitri Claeys
72
66
82
63
72
66
67
63
66
71
61
62
63
4.100
33
Ruben Zepuntke
72
55
69
65
79
72
64
81
72
65
66
68
65
4.100
27
Dusan Kalaba
74
65
69
70
70
72
76
57
79
79
58
68
78
4.100
24
Chad Haga
70
75
72
76
73
70
72
57
64
67
70
71
77
4.100
32
Reinhardt Janse van Rensburg
70
69
68
78
71
71
69
63
60
76
67
64
78
4.100
31
Borislav Ivanov
69
76
74
63
72
75
75
50
58
68
77
69
63
4.100
31
Bjorn Selander
71
68
76
63
74
71
70
63
70
76
71
61
63
4.100
32
Bert-Jan Lindeman
73
55
64
60
72
69
66
76
74
76
64
61
60
4.100
31
Chris Barton
65
73
65
75
71
73
73
61
59
66
68
74
75
4.100
32
Leandro Marcos
74
62
73
63
71
65
70
74
65
70
73
64
65
4.100
29
Alvaro Hodeg
70
53
65
67
68
72
69
51
77
76
53
64
71
4.57
24
Yasmani Martinez
68
75
71
72
71
69
74
50
66
73
74
61
72
4.100
33
Niels Albert
72
61
66
54
71
69
67
75
60
63
76
80
54
4.100
34
Szymon Rekita
71
56
61
77
68
71
71
62
69
69
62
73
76
4.12
26
Andzs Flaksis
70
53
65
56
75
70
66
76
61
62
70
72
56
4.100
32
Vojtech Hacecky
73
52
62
76
63
72
66
55
70
74
58
57
75
4.100
33
Laureano Rosas
72
59
65
75
72
70
73
51
70
74
55
61
76
4.100
30
Tareq Esmaeli
63
71
69
56
65
73
69
65
61
67
71
73
56
4.100
33
Clement Champoussin
67
70
69
60
72
71
70
57
59
69
65
71
61
1.0
22
Mikkel Bjerg
68
61
63
69
66
69
66
63
66
67
67
66
69
1.0
22
Did Minions improve or regress in the off-season?
jandal: For me the sprint duo swap of Vesely and Kalaba for Vantomme and Drapac (who combined for a very poor 104 points last year) is certainly an improvement, but the decline of three of their top four last year is certainly some points against that. Albert is just a domestique now and one with some pretty weak backups, Claeys down to 66 in MO and RES is pretty weak to compete with guys like Waeytens and Borges, never mind Buchmann, Beltran and Ulissi. However I always think he’ll suck so who knows. Uran is maybe the only guy coming out of his decline looking positive for another year for me with his backups still very very good even if the -1 to his stats still hurts him against guys like Wellens and Cattaneo coming in and certainly he looks worse than Gesink next to him in the decline. But he’s still a classy stage racer. The TTT squad looks ever so slightly worse thanks to his decline and that of his longtime lieutenant Martinez but is still quite good and an asset to him in his stage racing goals. However one thing saves me from having to weigh up whether their leader changes improve or worsen them overall: the very good pickups of great talents in Champoussin and Bjerg, the former was an absolutely bargain considering the prices elsewhere for talents in the free agency and they’re a great couple of future leaders for the Minions and make this a pretty positive transfers for them, even if they could do with some younger leaders next year.
AbhishekLFC: The big loss of Uran’s decline has been offset somewhat by the arrival of two better sprinters, which jandal highlighted. The former is still a great stage racer with his MO/TT combo and should score solid, if a bit reduced points, for them this season.Their depth on the climbs is good and so is their TTT team, and that should ensure good scoring in the stage races as well. Claeys has declined, but then he has always been prone to inconsistency, and is a rider they could’ve probably looked to offload this off-season. Vesely and Kalaba, whether riding together or separately, should bring in a good amount of points, far more than Vantomme and Drapac atleast. Have they really improved this off-season? Just about marginally, with more terrains likely to give them points now. I cannot however see them pushing for promotion and they’ll once again end up around mid-table.
knockout: I think the two sprinters will be a very useful assets and especially Kalaba is easily underrated as one can easily forget that he is still U25 eligible for two years and has a 78 PRL stat. That combination can score them a lot of (minor) points to keep the scoreboard ticking. In the end, I think that the points scored by this duo will be similar to the margin by which they are comfortable above relegation - somewhere in the midtable because the declines to both leaders will hurt them.
Croatia14: I have to agree on the points of Kalaba and Vesely. They are a top notch duo for years to come at Minions and part of the necessary turnaround the team needs to start with all the declines. Uran suffered from the decline the most, and more high end PCT stage racers will hurt him even further. He’s still great, but only #6-10 in the stage racing ranks anymore. Claeys has been shit before anyway, but with no better option on the hills anyway he’s not a minus. I’d argue that Minions have been really overrated last year, and this year the predictions are a lot more down to earth. The should do well, but I think they’re stuck in midtable pretty much no matter what they do in planning, cause in the squad it’s only really Kalaba and Haga where I see big planning leaps (in both directions) if you don’t fuck one of the other scorers up completely. So they probably slightly regressed, but they also finally got younger which makes up for that.
Minions
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
5
6
7
8
2
Croatia14
7
4
7
7
6
3
jandal7
6
5
6
7
7
2
knockout
7
3
6
5
6
3
MOL
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Mattia Cattaneo
70
82
70
79
76
80
80
54
51
70
62
64
79
4.100
30
Ivano Lo Cicero
72
56
64
56
71
63
79
69
84
78
54
60
75
4.100
32
Ki Ho Choi
71
80
74
75
77
76
79
63
59
68
68
71
74
4.100
29
Zico Waeytens
70
71
80
65
72
70
68
67
66
73
76
75
65
4.100
29
Roman Maksimov
72
53
60
69
70
69
75
58
81
84
59
64
69
4.100
32
Amanuel Gebrezgabihier
68
70
79
66
74
74
72
53
67
69
77
66
64
4.100
26
Sergei Pomoshnikov
71
79
74
64
78
76
74
52
64
66
61
67
64
4.100
30
Krisztian Lovassy
68
63
64
56
68
68
73
73
77
77
74
71
56
4.100
32
George Alexandru Stancu
67
78
69
66
70
74
73
50
59
71
70
66
66
4.100
28
Yannick Martinez
72
59
68
67
70
67
74
73
76
76
72
68
73
4.100
32
Pablo Mudarra
71
68
77
62
74
70
71
51
64
68
62
64
65
4.100
29
Mujtaba Hussein
68
68
64
77
71
69
71
50
51
53
65
60
77
4.100
32
Gaetan Bille
73
69
74
73
73
71
73
66
72
75
74
68
77
4.100
32
Gaetan Pons
72
66
73
67
73
74
69
67
74
76
65
67
69
4.100
28
Karol Andrzej Domagalski
68
75
71
74
70
69
75
54
62
65
65
62
71
4.100
31
Abel Kenyeres
66
76
69
58
75
75
73
53
52
69
65
66
56
4.100
26
Pedro Pablo Pereyra
64
77
67
61
71
74
66
59
50
64
66
73
61
4.100
27
Charles Matte
67
75
70
71
72
71
70
51
60
51
70
61
71
4.100
27
Marton Dina
68
71
71
69
68
67
71
57
62
73
71
62
69
3.83
24
Muhammad Abdurrahman
67
71
67
68
71
70
69
55
60
65
71
64
68
2.11
23
Viktor Filutas
69
68
70
67
68
65
64
54
65
71
73
69
67
2.71
24
Daniel Moricz
68
58
66
65
68
67
65
70
62
63
75
64
65
2.4
24
Can Cattaneo, Lo Cicero and Waeytens, the perennial underperformers at their previous teams, team up to push MOL up the standings?
knockout: I think they will improve the quality of the squad a lot. Especially Cattaneo will be a massive lift to the squad and he should perform excellently in PCT. Planning him and Choi should be fairly doable as well while Waeytens should be an upgrade to Gebrezgabihier. The interesting question is whether the team finds a smart way to use both Maksimov and Lo Cicero to the maximum of their abilities as both have obvious flaws but also a bit of upside as shown last season when they combined for 785 points. If they can repeat that, they can even glance towards the promotion spots. Otherwise, they will be at least safe from relegation.
AbhishekLFC: I agree with knockout. MOL made some great moves in the off-season and I think I did them an injustice by not mentioning them among the best improved repeating PCT teams from last season. They will be much better than last season, no doubt about it. Cattaneo himself will go a long way in ensuring that. Waeytens, finally unleashed from all the negativity at his previous team :P, should be a good asset too. Lo Cicero and Maksimov need to be kept apart but they do lack any kind of good leadout. It depends on which kind of Lo Cicero shows up this season but a mid-table finish should be the worst that they end up at.
jandal: Absolutely they can, as I said in the general questions I think they have a good claim on the title of most improved returning PCT team and that is largely due to these new additions. Cattaneo is a great stage racer in this field thanks to his backups and TT, even if that ugly HI stat should see the other 82 guys like Kudus and Wellens leave him behind. If he sticks to his strengths of MO and TT with fewer trap stages in the hills or with shorter final climbs maybe he can avoid them a bit and then even have a decent chance at beating them if they do show up. Waeytens is a good pickup who scored nearly 400 points last season and now has the revised profiles and less top riders ahead of him to try and improve that. Lo Cicero is starting to feel like the French rugby team in how much of a cliche it is to say “you never know which Lo Cicero will show up” but it has been true in recent years. Not sure of how much of a rugby follower jaxika is so I will tell you that France stepped up their game hugely this year with style and have a very bright future and look like a top team for the next World Cup cycle. Not sure if that last part can be the same for the 32-year-old Lo Cicero but you never know...
Croatia14: I don’t think Cattaneo has been an underformer at his former team, he was just poorly fitting the team there. Here the fit is much more obvious, and while he will clash with Choi in the “perfect” races from time to time, he’s a massive success story for his squad. I don’t think that Lo Cicero and/or Waeytens (who wasn’t that bad either last year) will perform better, though MOL might be the specialist for such cases at this point. Both will be solid, eventhough I hate Lo Cicero blocking Maksimov who is the better rider on my watch. All in all MOL surely will receive a push as they kept all decent to good riders (Choi, Gebre, Pomoshnikov) and cut off their dead wood, replacing it with actually solid riders. That alone will clear them off any relegation danger, and if they can recreate the planning magic/luck of 2019 they might even have an outside shot of risining the ranks into promotion contention.
MOL
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
7
7
1
4
1
Croatia14
9
5
6
1
3
5
jandal7
8
7
9
2
4
2
knockout
9
6
6
1
5
6
Nordstrom - CA Technologies
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Marko Kump
74
66
77
63
76
73
80
73
81
80
70
73
70
4.100
32
Guillaume Boivin
74
58
70
62
74
70
79
59
79
80
73
67
66
4.100
31
Kristian Dyrnes
68
72
78
61
73
73
70
54
65
77
78
74
66
4.100
28
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck
72
65
71
51
75
73
63
78
70
68
71
58
51
4.100
29
Thomas Faiers
70
77
70
74
74
74
76
66
62
72
73
66
74
4.100
33
Boy Van Poppel
75
61
67
62
73
71
80
69
76
78
72
83
76
4.100
32
Adam De Vos
68
75
75
66
73
73
74
59
62
69
72
73
68
4.100
27
Antoine Duchesne
70
67
77
68
73
72
67
56
69
79
71
51
68
4.100
29
Joao Gaspar
71
75
75
66
73
72
74
55
61
67
72
70
66
4.100
28
Tsgabu Gebremaryam Grmay
67
77
74
65
71
73
76
58
61
71
58
74
65
4.100
29
Daniel Ricardo Diaz
68
78
70
72
69
73
71
56
61
68
64
74
72
4.100
31
Davide Villella
72
65
77
61
72
74
67
63
65
80
74
70
61
4.100
29
Amith Udaya Kumara
74
62
67
54
74
70
65
75
71
67
73
68
54
4.100
25
Tom Diggle
67
65
77
70
74
70
70
51
64
70
71
64
70
4.100
32
Zachary Hughes
68
75
73
64
68
74
74
50
58
68
75
60
64
4.100
30
James Piccoli
67
72
74
66
70
71
69
62
64
73
70
75
63
4.100
29
Kristijan Durasek
69
70
74
73
72
70
67
51
59
57
60
57
73
4.100
33
Pascal Eenkhoorn
69
73
70
65
72
74
76
65
64
70
68
66
71
3.3
23
Jasper Philipsen
68
57
66
67
68
67
66
69
74
74
63
61
67
2.28
22
Hayato Okamoto
69
62
65
67
72
71
67
62
73
73
63
70
70
3.72
25
Gatis Smukulis
74
56
71
69
75
64
72
58
71
73
71
61
69
4.100
33
Juraj Bellan
68
70
66
69
73
72
74
56
62
62
70
64
69
3.2
24
Mingrun Chen
68
69
68
62
70
72
72
56
65
66
55
62
62
1.56
24
Sergey Medvedev
72
60
63
69
75
74
72
67
68
66
76
65
69
3.0
25
Barnabas Peak
73
64
68
66
70
70
66
61
69
71
64
67
67
1.0
22
Sakchai Phodingam
67
69
68
61
68
67
67
60
64
66
69
68
61
1.0
22
Hector Carretero Millan
63
72
68
65
65
59
65
57
64
60
58
62
64
2.47
25
Cedric Beullens
68
60
61
60
66
70
60
68
70
69
60
63
62
1.50
23
Is Kump strong enough to carry his team to survival?
knockout: Kump is no Beltran and won’t be able to carry his team alone to survival. There is a chance that they save themselves but they will need every rider in the team to contribute. The team has multiple riders capable of scoring in the three digits: Van Keirsbulck, Boivin, Diaz were nice contributors to their CT scoring tally and need to repeat that against tougher opposition while Dyrnes and Grmay scored a combined 300 points for Xero. All of them are required to deliver to give Nordstrom a fighting chance. Is survival possible? Yes. Likely? Not really but it could be close.
jandal: Much like knockout I don’t think Kump can carry Nordstrom all the way to survival despite his undoubted quality - in fact despite his training in the intervening years I wouldn’t be surprised if he fails to reach his old PCT standard thanks to calendar changes and the lack of that fantastic Isostar supporting cast. However I also believe that even though they will be in the thick of it unless they really exceed expectations they do have every chance of survival if the supporting cast step up to the plate. Boivin is a very solid lower tier sprinter whilst GVK has shown time and time again he can mix it with those above his 78COB and will need to do so now more than ever. If their hills and mountain depth can work (thinking of Euskaltel did it with Le Gac, Caruso etc. a few years ago) behind Dyrnes, then that could be very handy too. Every point will count for Nordstrom but perhaps more than their rivals they not only have a bona fide star but also plenty of riders capable of scoring rather than a smaller concentration of leaders and although I’m yet to finalise their standings, I just might have them surviving.
AbhishekLFC: On his own, like the others, it won’t be possible. With good planning, they’ll get close. Kump will help from all quarters - the likes of Dyrnes, Van Keirsbulck, Boivin, Grmay, Faiers, Diaz, all need to step up and chip in wherever possible. That’s probably the only way they can survive - by out-grinding their nearest rivals.
Croatia14: Yes, Kump is strong enough. The question is whether Kump is worked to perfection by his manager. If he can do as many hybrid classics as possible and round it off with fitting stage races he is a Top10 rider for sure. The others provide enough depth to possibly pull off the job. But as planning can go boom or bust with him it’s inevitable to get that right. But if they can pull off good planning they should survive with that squad depth around Kump as the key piece to the puzzle.
Nordstrom
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
2
2
9
6
1
8
Croatia14
3
4
7
4
1
6
jandal7
2
4
6
6
2
8
knockout
3
4
6
4
1
8
Podium Ambition
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Caleb Ewan
75
62
71
60
73
71
80
70
83
81
63
71
73
4.100
26
Marcos Altur
75
62
70
63
75
70
70
82
72
68
70
63
63
4.100
27
Alexandor Cataford
74
72
70
79
75
75
73
67
60
69
67
71
79
4.100
27
Jens Keukeleire
72
56
70
58
73
68
76
71
80
79
66
60
58
4.100
32
Ricki Nelson
72
55
60
56
70
64
79
64
81
81
53
61
72
4.100
32
Julian Alaphilippe
72
66
73
62
74
69
81
65
77
77
75
73
64
4.100
28
Jon Aberasturi
74
59
64
60
73
71
76
57
79
78
60
57
75
4.100
31
Alexander Edmondson
73
58
64
64
72
71
77
74
77
75
67
64
74
4.100
27
Logan Owen
73
65
69
62
73
71
72
77
64
71
68
74
64
4.100
25
Darren Matthews
72
61
66
70
70
67
71
75
76
76
74
66
74
4.100
29
Ramon Domene
73
50
57
57
73
68
71
76
74
75
62
61
57
4.100
30
Jyme Bridges
74
64
72
66
72
71
73
71
71
71
71
65
60
4.100
31
Jon Ander Insausti
70
53
64
66
76
73
64
77
57
66
66
70
66
4.100
28
Dobrin Lilovski
67
66
75
66
68
69
72
54
64
71
68
71
70
4.78
25
Jannik Steimle
71
66
69
65
68
68
64
65
74
76
61
62
71
3.7
24
Kim Le Court
68
68
74
60
65
69
67
62
64
65
75
70
61
4.99
24
Christopher Lawless
69
63
74
59
72
67
67
66
68
71
69
69
59
4.74
25
Bram Welten
70
63
66
58
66
67
69
68
72
71
56
66
59
2.97
23
Kristian Vanderpool
67
64
64
73
62
62
60
60
60
63
61
62
74
4.99
25
David Dekker
70
61
63
60
73
73
61
67
69
69
65
63
61
1.0
22
Was the Podium Ambitions manager too lazy to improve on a team core that was a good bet for promotion?
jandal: When their climbing skills are like this, some improvements surely wouldn’t have gone amiss:
knockout:: TMM during transfers:
AbhishekLFC:And yet, TMM after transfers:
Croatia14: During planning, when TMM realizes not all races are as flat as he expected (Gazelle in the background) :
Though then (s)he rechecks Ewan’s stats and his support team and is like:
Former Team Degenkolb traded away Degenkolb for 450k and five riders: Van Asbroeck, Betancourt, Bush, Rodriguez Galindo, and De Luna. Do you think that deal made them stronger?
AbhishekLFC: I think it is a more sensible decision for sure. Degenkolb has not been at his world-beating best for a couple of seasons now and the weight of expectations has just been weighing his team down in that time. Individually, none of the five riders brought in get close to Degenkolb’s capabilities (although perhaps that is a bit unfair on Van Asbroeck given his exploits for Lierse) but together they should get more points than the former team leader. Add to this a returning, improved Latour and an impressive TTT squad and Polar suddenly are a promotion chasing outfit this season.
Croatia14: At first I was about to bully beagle for making a shitty deal, but on a second glance it may make sense. Bush and van Asbroeck close gaps on significantly lower wage than Degenkolb and are younger, Betancourt is a wildcard (though I don’t rate him). I still don’t like the deal and think that keeping Degenkolb + Izagirre and maxed Latour would’ve almost ensured promotion. Additionally, that would’ve been a much better roster construction for the World Tour. But well, the team got (slightly) younger and deeper, and if they promote at the end I don’t want to be bullied for this. But right now I think the deal made them weaker rather than stronger, and it’s only because of the rise of Latour that we don’t question the deal even more and have them as promotion candidates.
knockout: I don’t like the deal for similar reasons than Croatia but i don’t hate the deal. I think it would have been easier to build a team that can promote this year and avoid relegation from PT next year around Degenkolb - especially if the team would have worked on improving the leadout train for him. The 5 new riders scored 26 points more than Degenkolb but Betancourt is too similar to Izagirre to really make much sense of the deal to me. However, the deal could make sense from another POV: I think it might be easier to sell the five riders next year for more money than you would have gotten for Degenkolb. The deal happened too late in transfers too sotden an immediate profit but if next years sale value was part of the thought process, then i can see how that deal might make them slightly stronger longterm.
jandal: I do kind of like it, don’t have a deep dive into it but one thing that shouldn’t go underrated is swapping one rider for five significantly helps with salary cap stuff and securing higher wage riders elsewhere when you suddenly have four spots filled.
Polar
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
9
7
5
7
3
Croatia14
7
6
4
4
8
8
jandal7
6
8
5
5
7
8
knockout
7
8
4
5
8
8
Repsol - Netflix
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Merhawi Kudus
69
82
77
72
79
77
79
53
63
70
70
67
72
4.100
26
Sep Vanmarcke
76
58
66
62
77
72
68
80
70
72
65
68
67
4.100
32
Marlen Zmorka
74
61
66
82
74
75
72
61
62
70
67
60
82
4.100
27
Jaime Roson
67
78
76
61
67
70
77
53
54
74
73
66
58
4.100
27
Eddie Dunbar
68
75
75
75
72
75
76
58
60
67
62
71
75
4.79
24
Marcel Kittel
75
55
64
81
74
70
68
57
60
73
72
64
81
4.100
32
Mario Gonzalez Salas
70
57
60
80
74
76
67
60
61
54
78
61
80
4.100
28
Jacopo Mosca
71
72
75
63
73
75
68
60
65
75
80
71
68
4.100
27
Cristian Rodriguez
70
70
76
67
76
70
70
55
65
71
75
74
67
4.100
25
Jesus Herrada
66
75
73
74
72
72
70
54
65
69
71
64
73
4.100
30
Yuri Trofimov
67
71
76
70
70
68
68
59
67
66
70
64
70
4.100
36
Carlos Barbero
74
66
75
64
76
72
68
60
70
74
75
71
67
4.100
29
Antonio Pedrero
67
76
73
65
73
68
71
53
70
71
76
70
65
4.100
29
Pawel Bernas
76
61
75
66
75
71
68
62
70
73
82
71
65
4.100
30
Miguel Angel Benito
68
75
70
73
72
71
73
51
56
61
67
62
73
4.100
27
Lukas Postlberger
73
58
68
77
75
72
69
56
69
70
73
61
77
4.100
28
Daniel Ruiz
71
58
60
56
76
72
63
75
58
58
67
64
56
4.100
30
Lluis Mas
78
61
65
68
66
71
61
57
71
78
68
65
70
4.100
31
Peter Varga
77
61
66
61
76
73
69
67
65
80
83
74
63
4.100
27
Attila Valter
70
70
71
65
71
70
68
61
68
71
65
68
65
1.0
22
Jordi Meeus
71
61
64
60
68
68
67
69
68
67
64
63
60
1.0
22
Xianjing Lyu
65
67
69
62
70
70
67
50
63
68
65
72
64
1.0
22
Matthew Teggart
67
62
68
58
70
69
68
69
66
69
54
63
65
2.26
24
By buying Kittel, Repsol got their third top time triallists while they lack strength on hills and in sprints. Will that imbalance hurt them?
knockout: I do think that the squad lacks a bit of balance and isn't entirely coherent how it is built. I think they could have strengthened their team a bit more in the TTT area to be absolutely dominant and/or signed stronger riders to benefit from them. I’d also like a bit more cobbles support because I think that Vanmarcke would deliver better if he had more than just Ruiz and level 1 talents at his side. But these points of critique should not hide that this is a fantastic team that will compete for the PCT podium. Kudus is excellent, Zmorka/Kittel/Gonzalez will dominate the ugly discipline and lots of depth points from Roson, Dunbar, Herrada, Varga or Bernas should help to promote.
jandal: I agree that if they were to commit to TTT focus and ignoring hills and sprints they should have gone slightly harder into it to be a clear #1, but at the same time I also think they already have a top TTT squad which should really help them score a lot of points and assist Zmorka, Kudus and Dunbar individually in GCs where it applies. I almost like their lack of a hill leader (though obviously signing somelike like a Schreurs or McCarthy or even just a strong 80 guy if they had that money could have been a huge step to securing promotion and a podium spot), at least their lack of signing a baseline 78 guy just for the sake of it, as they have some very nice attacking depth with guys like Barbero, Mosco and Bernas there who could do very well, along with Dunbar who already at level 4 looks a very strong rider for the hilly stage races as well as just in general and now shouldn’t have anybody blocking him there due to AI mishaps. This situation also happens in their flat squad with guys like Bernas again plus Mas and Varga leaving them not optionless on nominal sprint days, even if they could have picked up an actual sprinter. But as both terrains still have options, particularly hills, and the rest of the squad is so damn good in terms of leaders, domestiques and depth scoring, I don’t see them outside of the promotion fight, and probably they’re one of the safest bets in this rather open Top 5 battle. Finally of course we can’t ignore the real reason they didn’t go super duper hard to chase the division title or a perfect PCT squad and that is the arrival of the soon-to-be-brilliant Attila Valter, who won’t be more than a decent domestique or breakaway gun in the context of this preview but does deserve some commendation for the manager.
Croatia14: Rarely do I dare to disagree with knockout, but this time I will. I think Repsol did a superb job in bringing in Kittel on top. If you have one top class TT-guy it makes sense to add plenty, just cause they don’t bite each other as much as they would on any other terrain. I also think Ruiz is enough support, as you usually only need one guy to bring the bottles to the fore if you don’t chase (though Meeus and/or Teggart developed a couple of levels further would’ve been nice too), and cobbles depth points are more a 2015 thing. I also trust their hill plan, for which I assume they combine Kudus (for the tough 1-day hill races), Roson and Bernas to lead them. Also: who needs sprinters anyway if you can avoid the sprint races in PCT? Bringing attackers like Mas, Varga or Vanmarcke makes more sense in these races anyway than having a mediocre sprinter. So yeah, I don’t think their imbalance will hurt him, instead they are a title contender and a lock for promotion.
Repsol
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
3
0
7
10
1
Croatia14
9
3
0
5
10
9
jandal7
7
3
0
7
10
7
knockout
9
3
0
6
10
6
Swisslion Cycling Team
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Eduard Alexander Beltran
69
79
81
66
73
72
72
59
66
76
78
74
66
4.100
30
Lahcen Saber
75
62
68
64
74
72
78
76
81
79
63
68
70
4.100
30
Kris Boeckmans
72
60
67
59
73
70
79
73
80
82
64
57
59
4.100
33
Yevgeni Nepomnyachsniy
70
76
73
76
73
73
75
51
50
73
79
66
76
4.100
33
Aberlardo Ablenado
67
78
67
72
73
77
77
52
51
65
59
64
72
4.100
29
Tyron Giogieri
65
78
73
66
71
74
70
60
55
67
67
61
67
4.100
32
Abolfazl Gilanipoor
69
77
71
68
74
71
73
53
56
73
67
73
68
4.100
31
Hugues Mottin
69
58
61
79
67
74
69
54
51
55
66
71
79
4.100
32
Gabriel Marin
73
57
65
65
72
73
75
66
76
76
63
66
69
4.16
26
Miha Poljanec
76
67
69
63
69
68
66
72
69
70
69
73
63
4.25
25
Izidor Penko
70
66
70
74
71
73
69
58
65
70
62
71
74
4.30
24
Dusan Rajovic
69
58
63
59
69
73
61
55
74
78
57
57
59
3.8
23
Matija Mestric
70
63
67
63
66
68
66
72
55
65
67
74
67
3.51
23
Matic Groselj
74
58
65
73
71
75
68
67
70
70
69
70
75
3.52
24
Stepan Kurianov
75
64
64
62
72
72
69
67
70
68
72
69
64
3.1
24
Michael Christodoulos
69
65
66
73
71
66
66
53
53
64
71
64
74
3.10
23
Goran Antonijevic
74
61
64
67
65
71
63
67
68
71
79
72
65
3.41
26
Ivan Siric
71
63
68
65
69
74
58
68
69
68
59
74
65
1.0
22
Georgios Stavrakakis
69
61
67
68
67
65
63
69
64
67
69
61
70
1.0
22
Artur Sowinski
66
69
67
64
67
68
65
60
62
67
68
63
63
1.0
23
Kees Duyvesteyn
67
64
69
64
65
67
64
60
63
69
68
66
64
1.0
22
Yuriy Natarov
62
69
66
64
60
66
71
60
65
65
76
56
63
1.46
24
Jeremy Bellicaud
65
69
66
60
69
66
66
60
61
65
60
60
60
1.0
22
Will the changed stage design affect Beltran’s scoring negatively and can the new signings make up any resulting loss?
AbhishekLFC: The change in stage design will hit Beltran negatively. Adapting to the changing game dynamics should also pull the other teams closer. The presence of the like of Buchmann will also eat into Beltran’s points. Having said this, they’ve invested wisely in the off-season, bringing in Boeckmans, Saber and Nepom, among others, who should bring in enough points to offset the loss.
knockout: I think that Beltrans scoring might be marginally worse than last season but the weaker PCT startlists should compensate mostly for making some hilly routes easier for the pure hill specialists. The team also had to replace the 471 points scored by Ciolek last year but the signings of Boeckmans, Saber and Nepom should more than compensate. I’d guess that they are due to a calm midseason campaign with lots of heights but they should finish much closer to promotion than relegation.
Croatia14: Yes and yes. Beltran won’t score that much in Mo/Hi races and stage races anymore. Not only because of different stage designs, but also because teams with mountain riders will adapt to last season (the “Yates effect”). He’ll loose the advantage of often being the only top class hybrid in races. But he is still also the best pure puncheur in the db, so if he rides more classics than last year (which he ABSOLUTELY should) then he’ll make a tremendous leap in scoring there and compensate for less race days and changed routes. There is no excuse (Bilbao) not to send him to the hilly classics anymore.
The other new signings will also make the team much better. Saber is better than Ciolek alone. And while they don’t seem like the best fit working together, I love Saber and Boeckmans with the PCM engine adapted to the semi-classics races. I only hope Boeckmans doesn’t block Saber and will ride loads of races on an alternative calendar. The new climbers range from questionable (Abelando) to great wage/reward (Gilanipoor, Giogieri), and Nepom should still have more than 300 points in him if he can use the plenty of chances he should have. I think they are pushing forward rather than facing backwards.
jandal: Yes as the others said I believe it could affect him negatively compared to his insane last season, but not by a disastrous amount, and he’s still a top class rider no doubt. I also can’t help but echo Croatia’s sentiment that they are pushing forward, Boeckmans may be a short-term fix and I’d love more depth in the supporting crew but Saber is a great purchase who at the same age as Beltran has quite a few more years left in him as Swisslion look towards those two as eventual spearheads for a promotion run in the future.
Swisslion
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
9
8
4
5
3
Croatia14
3
8
8
4
2
8
jandal7
3
8
8
2
3
8
knockout
3
7
7
4
3
10
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Aleksandr Pluchkin
73
84
74
78
77
77
77
69
66
73
66
65
78
4.100
33
Mark Padun
67
80
77
65
72
74
76
53
60
75
76
70
65
4.100
24
Oleksandr Prevar
72
71
80
62
77
70
68
53
67
73
63
66
62
4.100
30
Pascal Ackermann
72
65
77
61
75
71
79
61
77
80
66
63
68
4.100
26
Martin Laas
67
74
76
62
68
73
73
55
67
76
68
57
62
4.100
27
Zouzou Andriafenomananiaina
65
76
72
74
74
74
76
56
52
71
76
64
70
4.100
26
Roman Lutsyshyn
70
50
54
64
69
73
74
55
79
80
58
57
70
4.100
26
Andrii Bratashcuk
69
71
77
58
75
70
69
52
62
67
65
79
58
4.100
28
Oleksandr Golovash
72
60
60
78
72
69
66
55
73
76
61
65
78
4.100
29
Artem Topchanyuk
68
77
73
65
72
72
71
58
60
70
73
63
65
4.100
31
Deins Kanepejs
70
67
77
69
72
71
70
55
62
71
68
65
69
4.100
25
Dries De Bondt
76
62
67
57
72
69
68
72
74
76
76
61
57
4.100
29
Nicolae Tanovitchii
72
68
76
60
75
72
71
57
62
71
79
68
60
4.100
27
Adrian Nitu
68
76
74
65
73
70
68
53
52
70
62
62
65
4.100
30
Volodymyr Dzhus
65
76
70
64
74
74
68
55
58
75
70
63
64
4.100
27
Aliaksandr Riabushenko
72
62
67
62
67
72
66
63
74
73
66
67
67
3.71
25
Mikhail Kochetkov
72
64
60
76
72
69
69
52
71
78
74
60
58
4.100
29
Andriy Orlov
69
58
76
67
74
68
69
55
63
70
74
64
67
4.100
28
Wojciech Pszczolarski
73
60
70
74
68
72
67
53
71
72
68
65
77
4.100
29
Petr Rikunov
67
72
70
70
69
68
70
51
67
65
62
73
72
3.99
23
Amadou Bakari
57
51
53
52
56
53
56
80
59
57
57
57
52
4.100
33
Roman Gladysh
69
65
70
63
68
69
69
61
69
70
69
68
65
2.70
25
Emil Dima
67
69
67
70
68
69
69
59
63
62
71
62
70
2.43
23
Stanislaw Aniolkowski
69
60
63
56
69
71
66
57
70
72
57
62
59
1.0
23
Can the finished development of Padun (for now) and the signing of Pascal Ackermann end the years of Pluchkin’s one-man-show and lead Popo4Ever back to ProTour?
jandal: I sure hope so, because I don’t want a trainable Padun in my division when Areruya has his (only, unlike a certain unfair Ukrainian :P) maxed U25 season! These guys very nearly pulled it off last season, and although Pluchkin has obviously left the 85MO club he’s still probably top dog albeit less able to easily dominate Tenorio and so not as high-scoring. Padun, judging by the success of well-utilised 80MO/strong HI guys like Meintjes and Bennett last year, not to mention U25 points, could well be a top 25 scorer. The leeway for me comes in the other two leaders. Sprinty puncheurs should have a better time this year than last year and so Ackermann should be a good signing, and Prevar was a very pleasant surprise last year and in a weaker hills field could prove it wasn’t a fluke. They have a good group of domestiques behind the quartet and last year they combined for over 600 points together by many riders scoring well into double digits. All together they’re a very good contender in what looks like an exciting and fairly open automatic promotion race.
knockout: I think that jandal might be lucky as Pluchkin4Ever has a solid chance to promote and Padun is key to that. Pluchkin obviously is still great and will score tons but I also think that with the right planning Padun can double his score of last season too. Ackermann is a bit more of a gamble. I think he will disappoint fj a bit this year but his addition could still be the difference between promotion and another year of PCT racing for his team. It’s gonna be close either way.
AbhishekLFC: I really thought it was impossible that a team with Pluchkin in the PCT will not promote at the first attempt, but they’ve managed it for two seasons now! If they manage to stay in the PCT again next time, maybe they deserve some kind of under-achievement (or is it self-sabotage?) award. They were not well placed for promotion last season as the riders outside of Pluchkin did not look to have enough in them. However they nearly got there, finishing 6th and missing promotion by a position. This time, they look better prepared for it with Pluchkin and an improved Padun the key to getting them there. Prevar is likely to chip in at places and Ackermann will also be similar I think. They’ll score from their depth to some extent but it’s up to those four mainly to push for promotion.
Croatia14: I’ll take the unpopular opinion and say that I am not too sure. Of course, adding Padun and Ackermann to a solid core is great. But at first glance all the races Padun should ride are ridden by Pluchkin. Don’t get me wrong, he is a great rider, but he’s not the perfect fit with Prevar and Pluchkin on the squad. Same goes for Ackermann. I think the German is a blunder. Great wage surely, but with his awful Mountain and lower than average Flat/Cobble/Mountain he’s a no-show in sprints and similarly helpless in many climbs. He can possibly score well on hilly stages, but there he’ll work for Prevar, as he needs similar races. So I don’t think Ackermann is a good fit either. Then Pluchkin is not the dominant force anymore, while his climbing opponents tightened up. Despite all the criticism I think fjhoekie has a chance to promote and should do if he juggles Padun and Pluchkin well, but to me it’s not as clear cut as it is to others. Quite funnily the team structure screams more like a Pro Tour team than a PCT team, where Padun would have more than enough opportunities to ride for himself without Pluchkin in fitting races. However, the team needs to be tidily planned without complacency to ensure that leap back to PT, otherwise Padun and Ackermann may get stuck in PCT as good wage riders for years to come.
Popo4Ever
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
10
7
5
1
5
6
Croatia14
10
7
2
1
2
8
jandal7
10
7
4
1
4
6
knockout
10
6
2
1
3
8
Valio - Viking Genetics
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Matti Manninen
74
65
66
69
71
75
77
58
81
80
70
71
76
4.100
28
Maxime Daniel
73
56
69
56
76
76
74
80
76
72
69
74
64
4.100
29
Pierre Paolo Penasa
70
80
74
70
75
72
77
50
57
76
68
64
70
4.100
29
Cyril Gautier
71
67
79
63
75
71
69
59
67
76
76
63
63
4.100
33
Sameera Chatarunga
72
56
67
67
79
72
68
77
70
68
80
56
67
4.100
28
Awet Gebremedhin
69
77
74
64
73
74
76
50
55
75
78
66
64
4.100
28
Joni Kanerva
69
64
78
70
75
69
70
55
64
76
75
69
70
4.100
25
Samuel Pokälä
70
64
71
77
75
73
73
64
60
65
62
64
76
4.100
30
Olli Kulppi
73
59
67
61
73
69
69
77
65
70
63
70
60
4.100
29
Sachin Dulanjana
67
74
72
74
75
71
77
63
62
61
60
75
75
4.100
25
Gokhan Hasta
65
76
70
69
68
73
75
50
50
60
65
62
69
4.100
30
Paavo Paajanen
69
71
75
65
70
68
65
64
67
69
67
66
64
4.100
31
Ingvar Omarsson
70
71
74
73
71
67
72
65
68
72
68
73
72
4.100
31
Jesse Kaislavuo
73
65
70
59
73
73
73
73
67
72
76
70
59
4.100
27
Sakari Lehtinen
67
75
73
65
72
69
70
60
65
67
67
70
60
4.100
27
Jeroen Meijers
69
64
76
67
74
73
72
61
59
74
65
62
66
4.100
27
Hannes Bergstrom Frisk
66
73
68
71
71
71
74
61
55
65
67
66
71
3.4
25
Riccardo Minali
69
52
57
56
69
71
74
59
75
75
62
73
66
3.11
25
Jaako Hänninen
69
69
71
69
69
71
73
55
63
70
69
67
69
2.96
23
Risto Aaltio
77
61
68
69
66
71
71
63
61
61
69
63
70
4.100
32
Joris Nieuwenhuis
71
63
68
60
65
71
62
67
68
71
62
75
60
2.0
24
Aleksi Hänninen
68
61
64
68
65
67
66
56
69
69
65
58
76
3.59
24
Jesper Lindahl
68
58
67
66
68
69
68
66
62
64
65
67
66
1.29
23
Ukko Iisakki Peltonen
68
62
62
68
66
66
64
63
63
64
67
63
66
1.0
22
Two new expensive prize cows for Valio: Successful rebuild around younger leaders or risking relegation?
jandal: I think risking relegation is a stretch but it’s a funny old division. I think it was a pretty successful reshuffle of the leaders to ensure they have a really nice sustainable core which shouldn't go through too big a trough this year, and gives room to build around a new leader or two/some more depth scoring next year to move up the ladder - Penasa’s wage should drop a lot so there should surely be room. This year they have a really quality top three, and although Gautier’s lessened RES and MO are slight causes for concern he may have a decent dip from his previous scoring he still looks a solid hills option, especially with the even more MO-challenged but otherwise quite nice Kanerva in behind, who also is one of the top U25 puncheurs after being one of the prized calves of the last few years. The very nice looking home-raised Gebremedhin and the cobbled duo, plus a decent domestique herd and nice options in Omarsson and Kaislavuo who love to take their chances if the peloton leaves the paddock gate open, make for a squad which should solidly survive unless things spoil unexpectedly. However I’m fairly confident Valio’s pasteurisation method of solid all-terrain scoring rather than relying on a few risky leaders should mean Valio will be safe to drink in the PCT for another season at least.
AbhishekLFC: I think Valio ensured that they would be away from relegation danger with the signings of Daniel and Penasa. Sure, Gautier isn’t as strong anymore, but he’s still a threat. Their depth in the hills and mountains should help make up for that. Chaturanga, Kuulpi and Kaislavuo are good doestiques for Daniel, who should easily be Top 5 puncher in the division and should also get a few podiums along the way. The improved Manninen should be good for them, and is another who’ll be a consistent high scorer in the races he rides in. All-in-all, I can see them being safe in mid-table come the end of the season.
Croatia14: Yes and no. Daniel and Penasa both were overpriced, I have to agree. But on the other hand at least for Penasa there weren’t really many better options. I think Daniel is a good rider and will do better than last year due to his sprint stat, but Penasa scored less than 400 if I remember correctly. That’s not enough to replace their older riders on my watch, cause Gautier won’t even score a third of his points last year (I guess). They have to avoid relegation to make it worth it, otherwise Penasa is gone and so is the plan. Would it be worth it? Kinda yes, cause they were able to train local hero Manninen and be able to fit Daniel and him under a CT wage cap. But also kinda no, cause keeping some of their former riders together with signing Daniel would’ve kept them safe in my opinion. So they definitely risk relegation, and whether they can avoid it determines the success of this transfer season. Right now they’re on the edge for me.
knockout: I think it’s a fairly easy answer: If they avoid relegation, the rebuild will look succesful and with expected wage cuts to Penasa opening cap space for new additions as well as a Gautier replacement they would look like a secure PCT team for the following three seasons too. However, i certainly see the risk of relegating. I see a good chance that none of their four leaders will score 500 points and they should have one of the worst depth scoring of all PCT teams with lots of riders that will rarely cross the finnish line earlier enough to get points.
Valio
Mountains
Hill
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
7
8
5
3
Croatia14
5
4
6
7
2
4
jandal7
6
7
7
8
3
3
knockout
6
4
5
6
2
2
Xero Racing
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Luke Rowe
78
55
66
65
76
70
79
75
79
80
75
71
74
4.100
30
Hugo Houle
78
66
75
69
76
71
79
65
79
78
70
69
69
4.100
30
George Bennett
67
81
76
65
75
74
79
58
65
73
55
63
65
4.100
29
Joseph Areruya
72
77
77
65
75
77
77
53
68
74
73
60
65
4.99
24
Mekseb Debesay
75
67
74
72
75
79
70
77
69
78
73
74
74
4.100
29
Xandro Meurisse
73
74
77
67
74
74
74
68
71
78
72
68
68
4.100
28
Stanislau Bazhkou
71
69
75
76
73
75
71
53
63
64
67
61
76
4.100
29
Hamish Schreurs
72
54
67
52
75
75
71
77
72
71
64
63
61
4.100
26
Morne Van Niekerk
76
61
67
78
73
75
72
64
61
67
72
64
77
4.100
25
Shaun Nick Bester
72
68
72
73
74
71
70
74
71
71
71
69
72
4.100
29
Jordan Schleck
64
77
73
53
71
71
78
53
52
73
61
61
61
4.100
24
Jamalidin Novardianto
76
61
68
68
70
78
74
69
73
79
74
68
75
4.100
26
Daniel Habtemichael
66
74
71
70
71
70
72
52
59
65
67
69
70
3.10
23
Syver Waersted
69
62
66
63
67
74
68
60
73
75
71
71
72
3.30
24
Bachirou Nikiema
69
66
71
62
69
71
68
65
70
72
70
70
63
2.0
23
Robert Stannard
71
66
70
66
70
71
68
67
68
71
66
66
67
1.0
22
James Fouche
65
71
68
68
69
70
71
62
61
69
68
64
68
2.99
22
Nils Schomber
72
54
58
72
65
74
67
50
69
69
64
64
79
4.44
26
Yacine Hamza
71
60
66
60
70
70
67
60
71
71
65
64
61
2.0
23
Jason Tesson
68
63
68
60
70
69
64
60
69
71
63
65
60
1.0
22
Salim Kipkemboi
66
66
69
56
65
69
66
55
63
69
65
67
58
1.0
22
There have barely been any changes in Xero's team with the exception of training for Bennett. Will transfers in and out of the division by other teams have a larger impact on the team than the few changes on their own team?
knockout: I wanna say yes. It’s largely the same squad as last year and while I love the Bennett training from a RP POV, it probably won’t make a huge change to his scoring although it can prove to be vital due to the arrival of maxed Padun and Preidler. Areruya developing and Meurisse replacing Dyrnes and Grmay should also have a positive impact on the team but I want to agree with the statement that the moves of other teams have a bigger impact on the finishing position. One underrated aspect of the lack of changes for the team: It should make it easier to predict where the team will end the season. Ridiculous predictions like predicting them dead last should at least be impossible this year…
jandal: Well you’d think wouldn’t you, but right now the range is from 4th to 26th in other previews, which is a nightmare for my pre-season nerves! I think the combination of some formula-based methods hating and some apparently loving the team will always make for some variance in predictions of these kinds of set-ups. For me there’s slightly more changes that meets the eye with the strengthening of Bennett’s support in Schleck (who could score a bit himself, though I still have no idea if he’ll be competent or not) and (at times at least) Areruya, as well as the quite nice looking Level 3 Habtemichael, replacing Grmay and Venter. On paper L4 Areruya and Meurisse in for L3 Areruya, Grmay and Dyrnes should be a net positive but it could also go wrong if they don’t perform. There’s also some new blood not replacing anybody which could point to some more scoring: Morne van Niekerk has also maxed and turned into the strongest U25 time triallist which I can confirm the manager completely ignored in race selecting so that won’t matter. There’s also the 77COB Schreurs returning who is also C2 eligible as well as being a good domestique for Debesay and a decent minor scorer himself. For me I’m hoping the arrival of another freshly maxed rider in Jamalidin Novardianto could be a boon for the team, after his 300 points in the PT at L4. However despite all these minor changes which could go either way in terms of the team’s perceived objective season-to-season base strength, I do agree with knockout in saying that the question is right that a possible shift up to the top 10 or slide down into the bottom half (for I don’t see them moving too far from last year’s 12th) is more due to that probably-quite-similar-to-last-year base strength having a new ranking in terms of the competition around it than the score itself getting higher or lower too much over transfers.
AbhishekLFC: There is a lot more competition for Bennett in his preferred races this time, so the training was needed just to stay in the same place I think. I think it is fair that Bennett got trained because I don’t really see a better option in the team for training which could possibly supplement the same amount of points. An improved Arreruya should help them massively. Meurisse is an excellent capture. I’m not one to ever overspend on talents, so I will always look at signings like Stannard with a bit of a frown. He is, no doubt, an excellent future prospect and will serve the team well when he gets there. I was quite impressed with the late pickups of Nikiema, Tesson and Kipkemboi though.
Coming back to where they’ll end up, it looks like all the trainings, incomings and outgoings seem to have cancelled themselves out. The change in course design could help boost Houle and Rowe’s points scoring. Schreurs returning maxed should help too. All things considered, I do believe they’ll end up at least where they did last season, and possibly a couple of places higher on the edge of the Top 10.
Croatia14: I don’t think the team’s success is determined by what others do, but more by what they do to prepare for the others. Of course it’s a good year to change up your hill squad when there are less great puncheurs in PCT. Of course Bennetts training my look less worthy on paper when PCT stacks up with more climbers and mo/hi riders. But at the same time it’s about how to identify new gaps, races where a team can do well. Especially when you have a team that is more built on hybrid races than any other team.
So more than ever Xero has all the chances to head up high, but at the same time is at risk to massively fail. I got the feeling that especially Houle and Rowe haven’t been used to perfection last year, but with the lessons of the 2019 season learned, jandal can adapt, read the calendar right and potentially double his points with those two. His team changed more than you’d guess at first glance with Meurisse and Areruya being incredibly important scorers, and maxed Schreurs, van Niekerk and Jams being probable catalysts for the success of the high-flat duo. That means it’s a no for me, the changes in their own team have a larger impact; and I argue that they have to work them right and identify their key hybrid races to have a successful season rather than just evaluate on which terrains the opposition may have improved/declined. If they play their game to perfection, then the sky's the limit really.
That was the 2020 Conglomerate preview. Thank you for your attention. We hope you enjoyed the read! Do you agree with our opinions or are we completely missevaluating everything? Please share your thoughts with us!
It took me quite some time, but finally finished reading.
I really loved the first part, looking back to last year and the discussions between you. This I especially making it so special and different from other previews. And there is so much I absolutely agree with and others where I haven't even realized it was like this but your discussion helps to understand the full picture of the PCT.
in especially when then looking back again next year, the comparison is always brilliant.
In addition, the discussed team previews add a full perspective. In addition to SykkelFreaks preview this is likely one of the best and most detailed PCT previews this season.
It is always interesting to read through your opinions on transfers and outcome, in especially when former underperformers change teams and you expect it to work out well.
Fantastic read as always, thank you all for yearly efforts.
However, 15/16th is certainly not good enough to get on the good graces of deities. Must've missed Krizek, the 1000 point scorer, which is a fair mistake to make.
And I think people making mistake in not buying Intxausti for cheap will end up being huge for us. Benat will not only drag Denifl's carcass during TTs but may even be able to score huge together if things go well
I do appreciate the nice words and the overall prediction winner is obviously knockout as he has Žalgiris highest.
As always a fantastic read. I always come back here during and after the season to re-read some of it, because it's so good
It seems like we are very much flying under the radar. I'm happy we're pretty much in agreement that I have done enough to comfortably stay in PCT this year.
I think our future would be much brighter if the MGUCI didn't change the profiles and OVLs to seemingly make Beltran the most nerfed rider in the game
Saying that, what if he manages to "pull a Beltran" again?
Still have a lot to read but will comment on my own team already, mostly I agree with the comments made. I still think Gaviria asked too much though
That also resulted in losing Moscon, I knew I was going to lose a Waeytens, Van Asbroeck, Pelucchi and Cerny but I was hoping Moscon and Dall'Oste could stay originaly. I think those two might mean the difference between promotion and around 10th place.
Have read the general parts and my team review so far, will finish the other teams later.
A few comments.
I agree with what Croatia said in the "Mountains battle" that as almost every top PCT climber has good/great TT abilities, they will score less points and riders like Kudus or Wellens could dominate the TT-less stage races
For TTs there's obviously a known randomness factor that could screw me hard, but that's why i have 3 80+ TTers. If Zmorka has a bad day, i still have Kittel. If both have a bad day, i still have Salas. And as someone brilliantly said in my team review, TTers don't get affected by IA leadership, so having multiple guys that can win the TT races.
Love you all rate very highly my future core, i don't sign as much talents as other teams, i rather pick just a couple per season, but obviously Kudus is only 26, Zmorka 27, most domestiques are in that age range
I tried to get a hilly leader, but not too hard, i don't want a one-dimensional puncheur with low mountain, so that reduces the options I think i can plan around the few hilly races i have
I'd complain about the lack of actual analysis, but given Ewan & Altur are well covered in your opening statements on the division it balances out well enough.
I needed a quiet transfer period to just give Altur proper support (replacing Thomas & Grashev) and get training money. Wasn't lazy at all, just very specifically planned and executed on Plan A with no panic.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
