Welcome to one of the more unique races of the year, the Tour de l’Avenir. With only riders aged 23 and younger allowed and squads composed mostly of riders of two or more teams, it stands outside of the regular calendar and shines a light on some of the most promising youngsters in the cycling world.
Profile
As usual, it’s a very balanced route. We have a short prologue and a longer time trial later on, three flat stages for sprinters, two stages for the puncheurs and two for the climbers, including a beast of a stage on the final day with four significant climbs that will be key in deciding the overall win. Really, the only terrain not represented are cobbles, but that probably would have been too much of a good thing.
GC Top Favorites
MO
HI
TT
AC
RS
Padun
78
75
65
73
73
Roman
75
73
64
74
72
Min
75
72
64
63
74
Schleck
75
72
53
72
69
Areruya
74
74
64
72
76
Barta
74
71
71
66
72
Gidich
73
76
73
72
75
Two of last year’s Top 10 have found their way here again and both are expected to end up at or close to the top. Since finishing 8th in 2018, Mark Padun has taken a big step forward and enters this race as the indisputable odds-on favorite. His climbing is in another league and he is a good puncheur as well. Anything but the GC win would be a big disappointment for him.
Yevgeniy Gidich finished fourth last year, a result he’d like to at least replicate, but ideally improve upon. He sets himself apart from the other non-Padun favorites by being the best on short, intense climbs and also the strongest time trialist of the bunch. But he has to utilize those skills to their fullest to compensate for his comparably low pure mountain stat.
Among the other contenders, Aleksandar Roman and Kyeng Ho Min stand out as strong climbers with solid hill and resistance stats. The Serb could have an edge due to his superior punch, both on short hills as well as in terms of acceleration, but both are certainly podium contenders.
Jordan Schleck might rival them in pure climbing ability, but he lacks top tier resistance and, maybe more importantly, he’s one of the worst time trialists of the entire peloton. He certainly has something to prove here, after a 119th place overall last year.
In contrast, Joseph Areruya and William Barta are much more well-rounded. Areruya is among the best puncheurs of the climbers and he also sports the best resistance stat of all riders present. Barta on the other hand is closest to Gidich in time trialing of this group. They also have had decent experiences in this race already, having finished 21st and 17th, respectively, in 2018.
GC Outsiders
MO
HI
TT
AC
RS
MO
HI
TT
AC
RS
Aular
73
68
64
67
70
Pogacar
71
70
70
68
73
Almeida
72
67
67
69
73
Bernal
71
67
70
66
73
Inkelaar
73
67
61
71
71
Gregaard
71
65
65
65
71
Powless
72
69
74
70
71
Foss
70
68
70
67
74
Petelin
72
68
62
69
68
Madouas
70
70
68
67
70
Conci
71
70
71
67
71
Williams
70
68
66
67
72
Vlasov
71
69
73
68
68
Evans
70
67
67
66
67
Sivakov
71
67
69
68
72
Abdurrahman
70
66
67
65
69
There are a few more riders who fancy their chances of a good GC result. In this deep field, Orluis Aular and Kevin Inkelaar are the best climbers, but they have weaknesses in time trialing and aren’t the best puncheurs either.
Some of the more well-rounded riders in this group include Neilson Powless, the best time trialist of any of the GC contenders, as well as Nicola Conci and Tadej Pogacar. The latter is also the youngest of the group, at just 21 years old.
A few teams come here with unclear GC leadership, such as DK Zalgiris, who in addition to Aular also bring Joao Almeida, Euskaltel Elior adding Jan Drago Petelin to Conci, or Aegon - Tinkoff U23 with Pavel Sivakov and Alexander Vlasov, one of the stronger time trialists.
On the other hand, a few riders have been omitted because they have another clear GC leader in their team, even if they would otherwise have made the list. However, we see two of them when we turn to the stage hunters, looking at the puncheurs for stages 4 and 6 first:
Puncheurs
HI
MO
AC
RS
Van Niekerk
75
71
72
74
Müller
75
63
67
69
Errazkin
74
71
69
72
Eriksson
73
65
72
72
Gaudu
73
69
66
73
Menten
72
64
66
74
The riders mentioned are the incomparable Aidan Van Niekerk, and Xuban Errazkin. Both are decent climbers in their own right, but they will likely target a stage win instead of a GC result, or play a supporting role. They are joined by Patrick Müller as the top riders in an otherwise rather subpar field of puncheurs.
While Lucas Eriksson, David Gaudu and Milan Menten could play a decent role, it’s more likely that some of the GC riders like Padun, Areruya or Roman fight for top positions on those hilly stages - although the best puncheur of them all is of course still Gidich.
Time Trialists
FL
TT
PRL
FL
TT
PRL
Ganna
71
74
76
De Bod
71
73
73
Powless
70
74
74
Scotson
69
73
75
Oliveira
67
74
74
Anderberg
74
72
72
Gidich
72
73
73
Castrillo
73
72
72
Vlasov
71
73
73
Groselj
72
71
73
.
Kalaba
72
70
76
Kopfauf
65
61
75
A quick look at the riders who might fancy their chances in the opening prologue and the time trial on day five. Filippo Ganna and Ivo Oliveira are the top favorites for the latter, next to the already mentioned Powless and Gidich.
Callum Scotson is a good time trialist as well but an even better prologue rider, tageting stage 1 in particular, where he will compete with Ganna as well as specialists Dusan Kalaba and Markus Kopfauf, although at six kilometers, the stage might already be too long for the latter.
Top Sprinters
FL
SP
AC
RS
Hsu
73
77
77
68
Kalaba
72
77
77
71
Cullaigh
69
75
77
68
Halvorsen
72
75
76
69
Jakobsen
70
75
76
71
Hodeg
68
74
74
70
Oliveira
68
73
74
70
Finally, let’s talk about the strongest sprinters present at this race. Once again, we see Kalaba, who is one of two clear favorites for the three flat stages next to Hsuan Ping Hsu. The Duolingo leader has the additional advantage of having the top lead out here with Rui Oliveira.
In the second tier, we have the likes of Gabriel Cullaigh, the rider who can match the top two’s acceleration the most, as well as Kristoffer Halvorsen and Fabio Jakobsen, who are also very well-rounded sprinters.
Alvaro Hodeg is a small step below them, but still clearly above a long list of decently quick riders who could enter the Top 5 to 10 on a good day. Those riders include:
Secondary Sprinters
FL
SP
AC
RS
FL
SP
AC
RS
Mudgway
66
72
74
65
Steimle
69
71
73
68
Moschetti
66
72
73
67
Kulikovskiy
68
71
72
72
Lonardi
69
72
72
57
Wouters
67
71
72
72
Philipsen
67
72
72
67
Kiskonen
69
70
72
74
Ovsyannikov
67
72
71
71
Soulious
68
70
72
70
Banaszek
68
71
75
68
Zakaria
63
70
72
64
Rajovic
67
71
75
73
Pedersen
69
70
70
71
With all that out of the way, have a look at the startlist:
We don't have any huge talents, so we don't have a favorite on any terrain. But I'm satisfied just to be fielding a whole team here. I want us to be active, that's all I ask. Breakaway in almost every stage, contest finishes when possible, and just have fun.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Obviously all in on Areruya here with 7 climbers in the squad plus Huynh, hopefully we can use that strength. This isn't his biggest year to target it, but a podium finish would be very cool, he certainly has a decent shot at 2nd which has to be the goal even if he's not the favourite for it. Will certainly be an interesting battle with the very different riders fighting for the spots behind Padun, who is already smashing it in PTHC right now so will probably be at least a step above!
This will also show to me on the two GC days how much of an issue his DH will be in future and if he needs an emergency switch to CV2 to try and mitigate it, I remember last year I think he used to get dropped on the downhills and have to rejoin the pack, which is objectively funny, but very worrying for someone who is meant to be our talisman for the next decade
We also have Schleck over at Lierse trying to defend their title, he could be a joke or actually quite good, will have to wait and see Would be awesome if we can see two of our young African climbers near the top here!
Thanks for the preview cunego, really looking forward to the reports, should be a fun race as always and for us the most involved we've ever been!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
We get to field a whole team but nobody of note for this season, a couple of guys might be in contention for stage wins in the future but the majority of our squad is still very young and inexperienced. this year is mainly about development and seeing how the group rides together, giving them the experience of being a team, laying the foundation to challenge in the future, both here and once they are all fully developed and have reached their full potentials in our squad.
A good GC finish for Barta would really go a long way towards his career at this point, rest of the riders may be looking at long term support roles regardless.
This will be fun! Thank you for a nice preview, cunego.
Will be interesting to see how this one plays out with PCM 18, having the Queen stage at the very end. Stage 7 should also be one for time gaps, but it feels like several riders can do it there, whereas on stage 9, that can only be Padun
Nice to see Foss listed as #1 at the Carlsberg team. No expectations though, but hopefully him and the others can attack and show themselves. For our Volvo contributors, the same can be said, but it would also be cool to see us able to support Halvorsen for the sprints there.
Pogacar's well rounded skillset should allow him to fight for a top 10 GC place. Apart from that good to see Groselj and Rajovic get a mention, but it would be quite an upset to see them do something special.
Hope to see some aggressive racing from our young guys. Proud to see us race under Swisslion colours this year, with 7/8 riders on our books
First ever Tour de l'Avenir for us. Our biggest hopes are on Cullaigh (cycleYorkshire), but he won't have any help for the sprint preparation. GC-wise, we have two more or less equivalent leaders (Mäder, Williams (cycleYorkshire)), with the former being slightly stronger in the TT and the latter on the hills. But yeah, without any points at stake, the main goal is just to have a fun race
And it's really hard to see Padun not winning this one.
Min comes here hoping to continue our streak of podium finishers, after Ranaweera, Carthy and Herklotz (borrowed of course) finished on the podium in our colours over the last three years. Beyond Min our squad isn't as strong as it has been in the past, although De Bod has an outside shot at winning the TT, which should be a good preview for the U23 TT at the Worlds, and Soulious and Menten may be able to sneak a few good stage results.
cunego59 wrote:
To keep the MG moving at a swift pace and because there are no other races happening simultaneously, I would go with two reports per day, one earlier in the day and one in the afternoon or evening (European time).
Historically we've just continued on with the calendar with Avenir running alongside the first September races, as that way things don't slow down (it being listed in August is more of an activity check than anything). I was planning on starting to post Britain from tomorrow and Tour of America from Wednesday as 2 reports per day, but I can hold off if there's a strong preference for waiting a few days until Avenir is done
cunego59 wrote:
To keep the MG moving at a swift pace and because there are no other races happening simultaneously, I would go with two reports per day, one earlier in the day and one in the afternoon or evening (European time).
Historically we've just continued on with the calendar with Avenir running alongside the first September races, as that way things don't slow down (it being listed in August is more of an activity check than anything). I was planning on starting to post Britain from tomorrow and Tour of America from Wednesday as 2 reports per day, but I can hold off if there's a strong preference for waiting a few days until Avenir is done
Ah alright, makes sense! At least from my end, by all means, go ahead Paris Tours will be a day or two late then as I won't be able to race that before Thursday, but I guess that's not be a big deal.
Also, if Avenir is completely outside of the regular timeline and no one's waiting for it, I can do the regular one report per day, whatever you guys prefer.
If it doesn't affect the overall progress of the game, I'd clearly prefer having one report per day. I like to comment on every stage individually, which would be much harder with 2 reports/day, that's why I don't like the "fast-forward-mode" that much. But I can understand that it may be helpful in terms of off-season planning.
Tamijo wrote:
I'm not a big fan of either, too many reports pop-up at the same time.
NB: Crazy that Padun is MO 78 in a U23 event, howtf does that happen ?
Well... That was only possible thanks to trekbmc. Padun was added in a year in which riders with a 200k+ wage would be cheap to loan for teams, using their entire loan cap... Don't know the exact details, but point is I used that rule to move Padun with a 220k-ish wage to trekbmc who made him reach level 3.00 in 1 season. Now he's somewhere pretty high in level 4, and will max out after this season already.
Guess it was not intended to make him get that 1>3 boost, but we made it happen
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
Got a decent variety of riders here from a GC hopeful in Conci to Gaudu who has been proving himself as a great Puncheur, Jakobsen who is a very capable sprinter and Castrillo who is solid against the clock. Should be a good race!
Well, riders are now usually added to the game at 22 years old iirc. They are allowed to make that 1->3 development, so they can do their first Avenir with level 1, and the second one with level 3.
If riders are added at 21 years old, they are already forbidden to do the 1->3 step, so it shouldn't happen any more that level 4 riders participate in Avenir.
Riders with less than 21 years aren't added to the game.
Tour de l’Avenir 
