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Slightly Mathematical CT Preview 2019
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-10-2019 19:19
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Team Manager
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Format
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
Context - Last Year, Prediction vs Reality
| 1 |  | Valio - DeLaval | 1 |  | Delvaux | -4 | | 2 |  | Compal-Merida | 2 | | Valio - DeLaval | 1 | | 3 |  | ENI - MOL | 3 | | Compal-Merida | 1 | | 4 |  | Team Cerveceria Costa Rica | 4 |  | Swisslion Cycling Team | -3 | | 5 | | Delvaux | 5 |  | Andorra Project - InGamba | -4 | | 6 |  | GCN ProTeam | 6 | | ENI - MOL | 3 | | 7 | | Swisslion Cycling Team | 7 |  | Banco de Bogota | -6 | | 8 |  | Rothaus - Aegon | 8 |  | Campari - Super Dry | -3 | | 9 | | Andorra Project - InGamba | 9 |  | Sauber Petronas Racing | -1 | | 10 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | 10 | | Team Cerveceria Costa Rica | 6 | | 11 | | Campari - Super Dry | 11 | | GCN ProTeam | 5 | | 12 |  | BNZ Cycling Team | 12 | | Rothaus - Aegon | 4 | | 13 | | Banco de Bogota | 13 |  | Adastra - Argon 18 | -1 | | 14 | | Adastra - Argon 18 | 14 |  | Oberfranken | -3 | | 15 |  | Telia-Brussels Airlines | 15 |  | Eddie Stobart | -1 | | 16 | | Eddie Stobart | 16 | | Telia-Brussels Airlines | 1 | | 17 | | Oberfranken | 17 | | BNZ Cycling Team | 5 | | 18 |  | DK Žalgiris | 18 |  | Equinor Pro Cycling | -1 | | 19 | | Equinor Pro Cycling | 19 | | DK Žalgiris | 1 |
The strongest of my predictions last year, with a correlation of 0.812. R3 (0.817) and R2 (0.811) were similar to the overall, and while R4 was best for PT, it was at 0.691 for CT.
No exact position predictions though, and 'only' 3 of the Top 5. Did get 8 of the Top 10 though.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 29-10-2019 19:20
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Team Manager
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Joined: 08-03-2007
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Category Rankings
| Hills | Stage Races | Sprints | | 1 | Equinor Pro Cycling | Azteca - NBCSN | McCormick Pro Cycling | | 2 | Eddie Stobart | DK Zalgiris | GCN ProTeam | | 3 | BNZ Cycling Team | NENT Racing | NENT Racing | | 4 | Netia - Vonin | Bianchi - Campagnolo | Bianchi - Campagnolo | | 5 | Azteca - NBCSN | GCN ProTeam | Euskaltel - Elior | | 6 | Euskaltel - Elior | BNZ Cycling Team | Centovalli - Fiat | | 7 | DK Zalgiris | Tryg Insurance Cycling Team | Equinor Pro Cycling | | 8 | NENT Racing | CYBEX Platinum | OMV Petrom-Albania.al | | 9 | Centovalli - Fiat | Adastra | Adastra | | 10 | Adastra | Netia - Vonin | BNZ Cycling Team | | | | | | Time Trial | Cobbles | Climbs | | 1 | DK Zalgiris | Netia - Vonin | Centovalli - Fiat | | 2 | Glanbia Foods | NENT Racing | BNZ Cycling Team | | 3 | Euskaltel - Elior | Azteca - NBCSN | Azteca - NBCSN | | 4 | Adastra | Bianchi - Campagnolo | Bianchi - Campagnolo | | 5 | Azteca - NBCSN | OMV Petrom-Albania.al | GCN ProTeam | | 6 | CYBEX Platinum | GCN ProTeam | CYBEX Platinum | | 7 | GCN ProTeam | Tryg Insurance Cycling Team | Adastra | | 8 | Netia - Vonin | Equinor Pro Cycling | DK Zalgiris | | 9 | OMV Petrom-Albania.al | DK Zalgiris | Eddie Stobart | | 10 | Eddie Stobart | CYBEX Platinum | NENT Racing |
| HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL | | Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 7 | | Azteca - NBCSN | 5 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | | Bianchi - Campagnolo | 15 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 4 | | BNZ Cycling Team | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 2 | | Centovalli - Fiat | 9 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 1 | | CYBEX Platinum | 17 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 6 | | DK Zalgiris | 7 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 8 | | Eddie Stobart | 2 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 9 | | Equinor Pro Cycling | 1 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 14 | | Euskaltel - Elior | 6 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 13 | | GCN ProTeam | 12 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 5 | | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project | 16 | 15 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 15 | | McCormick Pro Cycling | 14 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 16 | | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | 8 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 10 | | Netia - Vonin | 4 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 17 | | OMV Petrom-Albania.al | 13 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 11 | | Tryg Insurance Cycling Team | 11 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 12 |
Overall Prediction
| 1 | Azteca - NBCSN | | 2 | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | 3 | GCN ProTeam | | 4 | DK Zalgiris | | 5 | Bianchi - Campagnolo | | 6 | Euskaltel - Elior | | 7 | Netia - Vonin | | 8 | BNZ Cycling Team | | 9 | Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling | | 10 | Equinor Pro Cycling | | 11 | OMV Petrom-Albania.al | | 12 | Centovalli - Fiat | | 13 | CYBEX Platinum | | 14 | Eddie Stobart | | 15 | Tryg Insurance Cycling Team | | 16 | McCormick Pro Cycling | | 17 | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project |
Four teams relegated from PCT last season, but they aren't all predicted to be in the Top 4 this season. Two of them are amongst the standout favourites though, which does well exceed the positions which earned them promotion previously in 2017. Azteca to take the title with their strength across terrains, with NENT following in 2nd.
Joining them in the promotion positions might not be the 3 teams that were expected to be there prior to transfers. GCN in 3rd, well they were the best finishing of last year's CT teams to remain in the division, so sure. But DK Zalgiris were bottom last season - now we have them to promote, with Intxausti leading their raft of new signings. And in 5th, a new team! Bianchi expected to be best of the newcomers. Much will rest on Valls and Granjel Cabrera there.
Eusklatel and Netia will be aiming higher than 6th and 7th no doubt, with BNZ, Adastra and Equinor predicted Top 10 finishes. That does mean that the 5 remaining new teams are all predicted to be outside of the Top 10. Time for them to prove the formulas wrong then!
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | | 1 | AZT | AZT | AZT | AZT | | AZT | Azteca - NBCSN | | 2 | NEN | NEN | NEN | NEN | | NEN | NENT Racing p/b Hootsuite | | 3 | GCN | DKZ | DKZ | GCN | | GCN | GCN ProTeam | | 4 | DKZ | GCN | GCN | DKZ | | DKZ | DK Zalgiris | | 5 | BIA | BNZ | EUS | EUS | | BIA | Bianchi - Campagnolo | | 6 | BNZ | BIA | NET | BIA | | EUS | Euskaltel - Elior | | 7 | EUS | NET | BIA | NET | | NET | Netia - Vonin | | 8 | ADA | EUS | ADA | ADA | | BNZ | BNZ Cycling Team | | 9 | NET | ADA | OMV | EQU | | ADA | Adastra - Hell Energy Cycling | | 10 | CEN | CEN | BNZ | OMV | | EQU | Equinor Pro Cycling | | 11 | OMV | EQU | CYB | BNZ | | OMV | OMV Petrom-Albania.al | | 12 | EQU | EDD | EQU | EDD | | CEN | Centovalli - Fiat | | 13 | CYB | CYB | EDD | CYB | | CYB | CYBEX Platinum | | 14 | EDD | OMV | CEN | CEN | | EDD | Eddie Stobart | | 15 | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | | TRY | Tryg Insurance Cycling Team | | 16 | MCC | MCC | MCC | MCC | | MCC | McCormick Pro Cycling | | 17 | GLA | GLA | GLA | GLA | | GLA | Glanbia Foods Cycling Project |
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| quadsas |
Posted on 29-10-2019 19:22
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2728
Joined: 18-01-2013
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subscribe
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 29-10-2019 19:39
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Team Leader
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At least we are not predicted to go last 
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 29-10-2019 22:18
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3991
Joined: 26-07-2011
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In case anyone wants to know the difference in CT and PCT... I've come down with essentially the same squad that was easily last place in the PCT last season.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 29-10-2019 22:31
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7592
Joined: 28-05-2009
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Well those are some pre-season predictions that put pressures on GCN to perform... I'll take 3rd come the end of the season
.: Manager of :.
.: My Awards :.
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| knockout |
Posted on 29-10-2019 22:36
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8238
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Quadsas is satisfied despite being predicted lower than three other teams? 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| quadsas |
Posted on 29-10-2019 22:50
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2728
Joined: 18-01-2013
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knockout wrote:
Quadsas is satisfied despite being predicted lower than three other teams?
SNs math is expected to produce inadequate results for us, but he is on right track
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 08-12-2025 20:40
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| liefwarrior |
Posted on 29-10-2019 23:34
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Breakaway Specialist
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Hold up, I'm struggling to understand these cobble ratings.
Obviously Kasperkiewicz and Van Keirsbulck are the strongest cobblers in the division, especially when it comes to hilly terrain. This I have no issue with.
Azteca - NBCSN is rated third with who? German Anibal Orue and Chequan Richardson? They've both got nice cobble stats, and Orue can ride well in longer races, but other than that I can't see anything coming from them. They don't have the sprint speed to win from long-distance breakaways, and they lack the physical abilities to make attacks closer to the finish.
OMV and Bianchi I can somewhat understand, as both Young and Kluge have very solid sprinting abilities, however to leave out Nepomnyachsniy is a bit peculiar, although he is understandably worse. The low resistance and hill place him below them for sure, but below Lagab, who has worse physicals and can't even sprint? That's harsh.
I'd collate the cobblers in CT in the various races a bit more like this:
Hills:
1. Kasperkiewicz
2. van Keirsbulck
3. Young
4. Lagab
5. Kluge/Maes/McLay
Sprints:
1. Young
2. Nepomnyachsniy
3. Kluge
4. McLay
5. Lagab
Flat:
1. Kluge
2. Kasperkiewicz
3. Maes
4. Van Kiersbulck
5. Taubel
I'd need to look over the schedule again, but I seem to remember few bunched sprints, and more a mixture of flat and hilly breakaways. Overall I'd rate the teams as:
1. Netia-Vonin (Kasperkiewicz)
2. NENT Racing (Van Keirsbulck)
3. Bianchi (Kluge)
4. OMV Petrom (Young, Taubel)
5. Tryg (Maes)
6. Zalgiris (Nepomnyachsniy)
7. Equinor (Lagab)
8. GCN (McLay)
9. Azteca (Richardson, Orue)
10. CYBEX (Abraha)
Obviously you a far more experienced than me, so it'd be great if you could expand a bit more on why you gave the ratings that you did, or if you could show me how my thinking is flawed. I just don't understand how you reached the conclusions you did, as far as cobbles are concerned. |
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 30-10-2019 00:19
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Classics Specialist
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Its based on expected points, my team having 3 guys with 78/78/77 may not win races but will fill out top 10s and get a good amount of points from cobbled races.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| liefwarrior |
Posted on 30-10-2019 00:27
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Breakaway Specialist
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Ahhhh, that makes so much sense, and seems rather obvious now... oops. So you've basically spent less, and are aiming to get less points per rider, but more points because you have more riders? |
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 30-10-2019 01:08
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Classics Specialist
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liefwarrior wrote:
Ahhhh, that makes so much sense, and seems rather obvious now... oops. So you've basically spent less, and are aiming to get less points per rider, but more points because you have more riders?
Yea its a collective team thing, I don't expect them to win all the time against riders in CT, but they will get very good finishes. Sadly they are all 3 riders I've developed for the sole purpose of supporting Danny Summerhill (who is no longer with my team)... I was actually surprised to be 3rd and not 2nd in Cobbles with 3 of the top 9 cobble stats on my team.
also I think you are greatly overestimating the value of support stats for cobbled races, Cobbles is by far and away the most important stat, followed by flat/hill depending on terrain as well as Stamina for the longer races.
Edited by Kentaurus on 30-10-2019 01:24
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 30-10-2019 01:44
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Grand Tour Champion
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8th place...I can see that. Hopefully we can pull together to move up the order a few placings but I'd be very happy with a top 10!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 30-10-2019 01:49
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Directeur Sportif
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This seems fair for McCormick - nice to rate first in sprints since that was the only terrain in which we made any serious attempt to be competitive.
In our ideal world we reach the lofty heights of the top 15 to reach our season goal. |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 30-10-2019 08:32
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Classics Specialist
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We will take a second place for sure!
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| Azerbaijan |
Posted on 30-10-2019 08:48
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Neo-Pro
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Best of the new teams as far as I can see. That's surprising...
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 30-10-2019 09:12
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Team Manager
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liefwarrior, you've spent more time thinking about CT cobbles than I have so may well end up closer - I'm just applying previous formulas on this year's database. Glad to see it is causing intrigue though!
And indeed, as Kentaurus says, all of these ratings are considering the abilities of the Top 3 riders per team on each terrain, rather than just the leaders. It is weighted such that the top rider is most important, but having weaker support can pull a team down.
For Azteca, I have them as having the 7th best '1st' rider; the best '2nd' rider and the second best '3rd' rider for cobbled races. And while Lagab may not be better than Nepomnyachsniy, the extra presence of Kurth means Equinor are just about rated higher than Zalgiris.
Not quite - that's Bianchi
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| MacC |
Posted on 30-10-2019 09:52
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Sprinter
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Well, i do like to be the underdog
#goglanbia |
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| Azerbaijan |
Posted on 30-10-2019 10:25
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Neo-Pro
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SportingNonsense wrote:
liefwarrior, you've spent more time thinking about CT cobbles than I have so may well end up closer - I'm just applying previous formulas on this year's database. Glad to see it is causing intrigue though!
And indeed, as Kentaurus says, all of these ratings are considering the abilities of the Top 3 riders per team on each terrain, rather than just the leaders. It is weighted such that the top rider is most important, but having weaker support can pull a team down.
For Azteca, I have them as having the 7th best '1st' rider; the best '2nd' rider and the second best '3rd' rider for cobbled races. And while Lagab may not be better than Nepomnyachsniy, the extra presence of Kurth means Equinor are just about rated higher than Zalgiris.
Not quite - that's Bianchi
I could have read it more thoroughly. Still surprised though.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 31-10-2019 08:45
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Surprised to be rated first in climbing, I definitely expected Azteca to be on top there, or maybe CYBEX. Top3-5 should be realistic, though.
On the other hand, a rather disappointing 11th in stage races. Obviously, none of my climbers is a strong TTer, but as we didn't select the most TT-heavy (or just Mt/Hi TTs where possible) races, I hope we'll score better than predicted. I had planned to get a good TT squad - and fixed the goals accordingly - but it just wouldn't turn out this way.
Then, I'll obviously have to agree with the low-end ratings for TTs and cobbles, which I hope to improve for next season.
9th for hills and 6th in sprinting sounds fair, too. I hope I've planned my riders well enough to get out the maximum, but we'll see.
Our overall goal is Top15, so a predicted 12th doesn't sound that bad. Top10 would be nice, though. Especially as there are only 17 teams...
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