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Tour of Japan Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 13-02-2019 16:28
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Grand Tour Specialist
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 Tour of Japan
Kon'nichiwa everybody! You are now turned in to the global coverage of the Tour of Japan. On the MG calendar since 2009, we're certainly talking about a MG classic here!
A slightly different route this year, but still the same concept: A race for the puncheurs... If it wasn't for that pesky mountain TT in stage 4. The importance of the mountain TT can not be underestimated, given Denifl's win and Sicard's second place last year. Behind them, an allrounder (Kwaitkowski), another climber (Kudus), an allrounder (Roche) and a puncheur (Kinoshita). This means we should be in for a very open race!
Anyway, let's not act like there are only hilly stages in this tour. Because before we get into the hills, we have a small 3,2 kilometre prologue and a stage that is rated flat, but should be quite exhausting for sprinters with is mountainous profile. Then we do get hills, in a 156-kilometre stage that ends flat, and may not have too much of an influence on the GC if we get a passive race.
After that the real fun starts, with the mountain TT and a 157-kilometre hilly stage with absolutely zero flat parts and two quite long mountains near the end – will the mountain stat have an influence here? And oh, we end up with a 122-kilometre stage that should once again be for the sprinters. But the GC should've been decided by then.
As said before, judging by last year's result, many types of riders can win this Tour. Therefore, it will be up to your crystal ball to decide what category will prevail... Let's go through them one by one, shall we?
If you believe last year's order will happen again, you obviously have to regard the climbers are the top favourites. Denifl is back once again to regain his title, while Henao and Monsalve are likely the only ones who could challenge him in the mountain TT.
Their problems will likely be the hilly stages, in which time loss might be imminent. This might rule out Henao as a favourite, as his hill stat is easily the weakest. Meintjes should survive the hills best, but his subpar acceleration equals out this fact. Therefore the form of the day will be very important to decide who will be the best climber in the GC.
Second, and probably my tip to win the GC, as the hybrids. Kwiatkowski is the favourite in this category, as per usual in the PCT. He has the ability to follow the best on the hills, and lose the least time in the mountain TT.
Roche, Squire, Poljanski and Bennett follow in the “likely won't be very visible but might top 5”-group. Don't rule them out – they have the legs to beat Kwiatek on a good day!
Next is the group with the more pure puncheurs, who are bound to lose time in the TT, but will very likely shine in the two hilly stages. And the most notable name is Kinoshita. The Japanese rider will certainly want to give his team some airtime in his home race, and should even be able to improve his sixth place this year as his mountain stat certainly isn't a disaster. His main rival on the hills is McCarthy. Slightly weaker stats perhaps, but very hungry for stage wins, as unlike Kinoshita he doesn't have the package to keep the time loss low in the TT.
An interesting third here is Izagirre, who has a very respectful TT and mountain stat. He should be the best mountain racer in this list. But how well will be do in the hills despite his infamous low acceleration?
Wait what, sprinters can win this race too? Oh never mind, they are just listed because of the two flat stages. Of course. Itami should be the favourite in his home stages. Kip has the same sprinting ability, but weaker substats. Moser, Van der Sande and Merino Criado have the most potential if these stages prove to be harder than expected. All in all it should be two open sprinter stages.
And lastly, some of the best prologue riders of the (P)CT came here for the stage 1 win and the leader's jersey. Chavanne is the best of them, as always. Though there should be some sort of a hill involved in there.. At least the profile shows it's slightly upward. If that has any influence on the outcome of thr prologue, Cornu, Kuboki and Rajapakshage might shoot up on the favourites list by a bit.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 13-02-2019 16:39
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Directeur Sportif
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Looking forward to how the new route plays out with the actual MG matrix! Should be an interesting race (as the years before) and the puncheurs' success will depend on how hard they will ride the crucial hilly stage.
Will Meiji stay hot and deliver on home soil? Would be a nice story, obviously.
For my amateur's team it's all about joining as many breakaways as possible and maybe our climbers can overperform on Mt Fuji and then fight for a somewhat notable (minor) GC result on the must crucial hilly stage on fifth day. Would love to see our colors on a day or two.
Thanks for the nice preview and good luck to all involved!
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 13-02-2019 17:39
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World Champion
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We've brought someone for every possible scenario here! Were only really missing an allrounder, like a Kwiat, but Im obviously rooting for Kinoshita to blow the race up on the hill stages so that he can limit his loses on the MO TT.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 13-02-2019 18:20
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MAL, Siskevicius and Kreuziger in one race. Great opportunity to lower the gap to BNZ. Expecting at least 1500 points from this. Best team in MG after all
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 14-02-2019 05:39
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How much time will Henao lose on the hills? That will determine how successful this race turns out for us. Decent squad to help him through different kinds of profiles. Past experience from ToME doesn't fill me with confidence...
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 14-02-2019 05:48
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 14-02-2019 17:05
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We seem to be getting some momentum back into the M-G, kudos to our small cadre of dedicated reporters.
WCC are really quite looking forward to this outing in Japan, perhaps it will end up as a banana skin race, but we feel we have sub-top favourites in Ji and Betanourt who are good options depending which terrain of puncheur vs. mountain turns out dominant. Carlos in particular may well shine here if he has sufficient motivation. An outsider, but Redecker might also provide an option on sprint stages. Hence, only the short prologue to 'suffer' through before potential podium challengers on every stage.
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| quadsas |
Posted on 14-02-2019 18:16
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Seems like Kruopis is either 5 or 7 seconds behind yellow, great opportunity for him to capture our first yellow jersey during S2 sprint. Kreuziger is setting himself up for shock GC win too, good to see
Edit: actually its 8 seconds..still doable, he seems to be in decent shape
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 14-02-2019 18:35
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Too lazy to do the math, but I guess Porte did fairly well. Of course nothing special, but he got mentioned, which is good 
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Posted on 08-12-2025 18:03
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 14-02-2019 18:35
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My god, that GC startlist 
Not afraid to admit looking at the startlist I may have used the exact same squad as I did for Eritrea  So in the same vein:
jandal7 wrote:
Hyped for another HI/MO race for GB. Aiming high at the top 5, PCM has treated him right in the hills so hope he can take that advantage over the 79+ climbers! Would love a stage win somewhere, most likely Tosh. Super excited, hope for a repeat Kwiatek show as well!!!
Hope the harder sprint stage tomorrow suits Tosh, if it has any decent kind of effect a la Catalunya Stage 4 he must be the favourite, possibly with Moser. Will be tough for GB but hopefully our Kiwi champion can do us proud 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 14-02-2019 22:03
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Looking forward to seeing if Pichon can actually do something in this race, he's had a very quiet year so far keep the reports coming
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 14-02-2019 23:07
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I think Kuboki came 3rd on the day, not bad, and Choi not far out of it too.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 15-02-2019 00:51
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Gabby just keeps proving me right for keeping him and that I planned his season well by piling up the points and wins. He has managed to keep the Sauber tradition alive of going #BigInJapan and taking the prologue and opening leaders jersey that goes with it and that should help us nicely in the CT rankings.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 15-02-2019 03:06
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I have to hope Nazaret can avoid losing too much time in the hills and go ballistic in the Mountains. Also hoping Borisavljevic can do alright here. Moser should have a decent chance in the sprinter friendly stages as well! And not the worst prologue from Cornu in the opening stage.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 16-02-2019 07:18
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Brus
Disappointing stuff from VdS indeed. As for my amateur's team, well. All we need is breakaways, so they better start tomorrow, now that all but three riders have lost several minutes at least O'Brien and Mat Senan kept some minor GC hopings alive.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 16-02-2019 07:30
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Decent 4th place from Te Brake.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 16-02-2019 11:10
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smart planning by the amateur, great job! also a shame that van der Sande came out unlucky here
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 16-02-2019 19:18
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World Champion
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Shame Kuboki couldn't take more bonus seconds to move into the lead, that was the goal when I planned it.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 16-02-2019 19:57
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That’s a bit disappointing from Moser. I mean 3rd isn’t too bad but from the position he was in I was hoping he could go on to win.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 16-02-2019 23:05
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World Champion
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Was hoping for better. Kinoshita has been a bit lacklustre this year. Team shouldve chased McCarthy down more, and then had Kinoshita make the move later instead of doing it all himself.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 16-02-2019 23:17
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I know I couldn't really expect anything out of the GC other than Zoidl sneaking a top 20 but to see the only guy not to drop back with Gabby being someone that had already lost time was comical in a bad way.
Oh well, we got the stage win and time in the leaders jersey we came here for so can't complain about missing what would have been considered a bonus in strange fashion.
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