Well really this is a preview with not many demands, just the good ol' format. I see not many other managers have posted one yet so have no idea how some of the tougher teams to analyse compare, but as always, I'm looking forward to see what huge differences will be there between one preview and another.
Should also advise you that a lot of stuff here is quite likely wrong, so if you think your team is worse than what I predicted don't get your hopes up about the position I'll predict you to be in, and viceversa, if you find yourself further down in the rankings for no reason, you'll probably survive anyway.
All of it is already written so it should make for a long, hopefully enteratining read.
Enjoy!
P.S.: To avoid messing up the table below, I had to abbreviate a few things. Nats. = Nationalities in the team, AVG AVG = Average Average.
This team likes mountains; sadly enough, they suck at everything else, except in sprints, where they suck a bit less, thanks to the multi ToA stage winner Granjel Cabrera, that will benefit from racing in fields with fatty sprinters such as Van Heerden.
It’s an even bigger shame that their reasonably waged leader Fabio Duarte is far from being a top climber in the ultra-crowded 2016 PCT, and tons of domestiques are almost useless in PCM, especially when their backup stats are not exactly top. If they’re very lucky they’re going to stay another year in PCT, but it will be another long, long season.
Team
Arrinera
Manager
sgdanny
Key Rider
Nicholas Roche: 80 HI, 78 MO, 72 TT
Key Speciality
Hills
Last Season
3rd CT
Prediction
10th
Coming from a great CT debut season, Arrinera has had another great transfer season going into PCT, which should see them aiming for a stellar ranking finish, thanks to the possibility to score in basically all terrains, heck, they even have TT depth. Thanks to the additions of riders like Nicholas Roche and Chris Froome, this team could be considered as one of the stronger hilly squads, if not the outright strongest. Their only problem is the lackluster domestique support for those 2, that will feel alone most of the time.
Furthermore, they have convinced Nikolas Maes to join the team, which means they will look at grabbing a fair few points in cobbled classics as well, even though the Belgian powerhouse has not been that good in 2015. Last but not least, they decided to keep last year’s CT dominator Lavoine, who will not score nearly half as much as he did last year, but could surprise in favorable conditions – read: short, pan-flat stages.
Team
Ayubowan!
Manager
jph27
Key Rider
Cyril Gautier: 80 HI, 77 ACC, 76 STA
Key Speciality
Hills
Last Season
22th PT
Prediction
9th
The Sri Lankans found themselves in PT for some reason last year. Confused, they’re now back to PCT. Somehow, their team looks stronger than it was previously in a higher division, but I believe it won’t be enough for them to bounce back already. Sure, Gautier is easily a top 10 puncheur, Bellis and Bibby will score quite a few points, a lot of riders are potential candidates for the overall top 100 at the end of the year. But I doubt that is going to be enough, really. Pinot is a decent climber, but that’s it, he could barely top 10 some mountainous races if he’s lucky.
That said, the rest of the team is not awful, and their depth should help them stay well above a lot of teams that have 1-2 leaders and that’s all. Some clever race planning could help.
Team
Azteca - NBCSN
Manager
Kentaurus
Key Rider
Danny Summerhill: 83 COB, 73 HI, 70 SP
Key Speciality
Cobbles
Last Season
22nd PCT
Prediction
23rd
They have Summerhill and a lot of average climbers/puncheurs, as well as 2 mediocre sprinters. That said, they’ll stay up for the simple reason they have Summerhill and they’re better than last year, when they literally only had Summerhill. And look, this year they even fucking trained him.
If last year he literally didn’t win 3 races he took part to, this year he’ll be even more illegal. FFS.
Team
Banc na hÉireann
Manager
Dippofix
Key Rider
Daniel Martin: 82 MO, 77 HI, 73 TT
Key Speciality
Hills
Last Season
12th PCT
Prediction
8th
Decent team with top leaders in both mountains and hills. Daniel Martin and Jay McCarthy are riders who would fare perfectly well in a higher division for sure, and in fact, the former has been one of the most discussed deals of the transfer season, coming from Norwegian team Aker – MOT, who could in turn keep Edvald Boasson Hagen, who was initially set to leave. The Irishmen could probably count on a decent sprint train too, if it wasn’t for the fact they actually lack a top lead sprinter, and no, Vanoverschelde clearly is not one.
For the rest, McCarthy can count on a very reliable and solid hill support, while Martin, who probably won’t need any anyway, can’t say the same. The team doesn’t have any particular strengths in neither TTs nor Cobbles, or any super domestiques for that matter, therefore the potential promotion chances weigh on the two leading Irishmen (ed: apparently McCarthy is an Aussie, but I'm keeping this anyway because I'm actually convinced he is an Irish).
Team
Coldeportes
Manager
Stromeon
Key Rider
Rigoberto Úran: 82 MO, 78 TT, 74 HI
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
11th CT
Prediction
11th
Actually, this team has some acceptable depth in all but one terrain where most South American teams unexplainably don’t perform too well. With fatty Guerao, they might have either bought a huge point scorer for the PCT, or overpaid yet another overly disappointing Theo Bos disciple. However, it’s not about him. Rigoberto Uran Uran Uran Uran is a Colombian that can do stuff outside of climbing, which is a quality you rarely find in South American riders. Even though the opposition among stage racers is fiercer than ever in the division, Uran might actually surprise quite a few people after last year’s uninspiring season in PT.
Talking about hills, the team can count on an enviable depth at first sight, that will actually let them down in the important moments. Betancourt will be their outright leader, as he doesn’t have any particular weaknesses. When their leaders will need it, they will be able to rely on a good Team Time Trial train. High-mid table finish is what seems most foreseeable for them.
This looks a bit like Azteca’s situation, except they have more riders and Dekker won’t dominate his speciality like Summerhill does. They can actually say they have a decorous support for their leader, however, should he for some reason need it. No particular strengths in other specialities, with Matthews being their best hope in sprints, but certainly not a great PCT-level sprinter, and able to rely on a good support cast.
They can potentially save themselves from relegation if Dekker delivers as he should, but if they don’t, they should blame it on the absence of a co-leader. 520.000 on useless LVL 1 Free Agents is really too much considering how big the team is and how that same money could have been spent. That said, their manager was probably aiming to get the “Most Nationalities” prize he was striving to get. Gratz.
Team
Eritel - Sonatrach
Manager
SportingNonsense
Key Rider
Daryl Impey: 80 SP, 81 ACC, 73 HI
Key Speciality
Sprints
Last Season
14th PCT
Prediction
12th
Get hyped for the first, and so far the only, ever full-African team in the MG! As usual, their manager has probably achieved his goal of finishing mid-table, even though he risked a lot this time around. In fact, it looks like they could aim for an even higher placement in this year’s rankings, thanks to the valuable additions of hilly sprinter Daryl Impey, who will look to teach the fattest sprinter in the MG Van Heerden how to sprint for more than 50 meters.
That said, the departures of the British core of the team, Dowsett and Bibby spring to mind, will hurt the team quite a bit, the former partially replaced by beard god Dan Craven, the latter maybe slightly resembled by talent Debesay. For the rest, the African core remains close to the one the team lined up last season, with Berhane being their shot at winning Tour of America. You could say the team can defend their colors pretty well in every field, which could mean a lot considering they have a genuine shot at the top 10.
Team
Euskaltel
Manager
Luis Leon Sanchez
Key Rider
Dominque Cornu: 81 TT, 81 PRL, 72 HI
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
26th PCT
Prediction
18th
The Basque team with the lowest number of Basque riders in the world almost faced relegation, but got saved by the MGUCI because of other teams turning down the promotion offer for an alleged lack of money. Safe to say, they won’t face it again. The manager drastically strengthened the core of the team, even though some could argue that Roy actually weakened it, Flores manager being the first to chuckle about it.
Fortunately, having realized the huge mistake, they brought in Caruso as well, meaning they have 19 riders with 70+ in the hill stat. Cornu would have been a smarter addition if backed up by a stronger TTT support cast – read, I don’t like his presence in PCT. Both Bouhanni and Valls are good, not tip top leaders, that have been sustained by good domestiques in the past, and will likely be for yet another year.
Team
Flores - Ceitec
Manager
The Rider
Key Rider
Alberto Contador: 81 MO, 75 HI, 73 TT
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
19th PCT
Prediction
20th
The Brazilian nature lovers have parted ways with Roy, upgrading to the less shitty version Mehr-Wenige. Besides that, they’ll have to deal with a declined Contador, who’s been a dominating rider in his first declining year still, but won’t be a top 3 ranking contender again. Still, most definitely a classy leader for the mountains, backed up by a good mountains team. Pretty much the same riders will also try to help out Mehr-Wenige and Talansky in the classics best suiting their skills.
Not much to see for the rest, many good domestiques got their contract extended, and incredibly, so did Flat Justice Warrior Jaime Castañeda. They are set to basically repeat last year’s finish.
Team
Generali - AXA
Manager
matt17br
Key Rider
Diego Ulissi: 80 HI, 75 ACC, 74 SP
Key Speciality
Time Trials
Last Season
7th CT
Prediction
16th
Reviewing my own team is so hard whilst trying to be serious, I’ve had to rewrite this part 4 or 5 times already trying to avoid insulting myself. To stay as unbiased as possible, I’ll just say that Ulissi is one of the top 3 puncheurs in the division and will score them a lot of points thanks to his hill-sprint combo, Teunissen would be an even better cobbler in a PCT with no Summerhill, and last but not least, their TTT train is impressive, feature that could not only help them in stage races, but also win them a few stage wins here and there.
The absence of any respectable climber will hurt their top 15 hopes, considering their HC bands choices were based on getting an at least decent one, and it’s a bit strange to see how they didn’t try getting a top sprinter considering the support they could have received. Their manager really is a fucking nut.
Team
Hugo Boss
Manager
dev4ever
Key Rider
Marko Kump: 79 SP, 76 HI, 80 ACC
Key Speciality
Hills
Last Season
21st PCT
Prediction
5th
Much hills wow, this team might actually be the outright strongest when the slopes get really steep. All leaders will certainly improve their past seasons, especially the main one Rui Costa, because tell me how shit could go worse than last year? Marko “Michael Van Stayen” Kump will be thrilling to see in action as maxed, in especially in PCT.
Their variety of strengths includes a good Differdange duo, made up by Gonzalez and Ligthart, a good leadout in Aberasturi, and other puncheurs, such as the spicy Pello Bilbao, shared punchy leader with Rui Costa. I don’t see why they shouldn’t be considered promotion candidates.
Exceptional climbing team made up of leaders that, in a way or another, have disappointed their managers during the past season. Top stage racer Intxausti was one of the most unexplainable underperformers of the 2015 season, scoring just enough to take RBC to the PT, while Anuar Aziz ate humble pie for pretty much his entire PT adventure, coming in with very high expectations. The same could be said for Tommy Zaini, who on the other hand, was only dropped by his manager to try to follow a fully Asian path for his former team.
That said, I have a feeling all the 3 above mentioned riders will have much better luck this time around. Since the team is pretty much built around those 2 terrains, mountains and hills, their leaders will also rely on a bunch of experienced, stellar domestiques. One name above all is Jose Mendes, the rider that dominated CT two years ago and is now looking for new challenges, but shouldn’t overlook valuable gregarios like Brenes and stereotype mountain goat Signorini. Mid-high table looks pretty likely.
Team
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
Manager
maxime86
Key Rider
Robin van der Hugenhaben: 80 HI, 77 MO, 71 TT
Key Speciality
Hills
Last Season
8th CT
Prediction
24th
Interesting team with scoring options pretty much everywhere, but maybe with no stand out leaders anywhere, indicating a typical mid-low table finish. Robin Van der Hugenhaben looks like the one you would indicate as their outright leader, but even him will not score as much as their manager expects him to, coming from a certainly inconsistent 2015, when he alternated great performances to sad off-days. I don’t see that situation changing, if we consider how useless his domestiques will be. Pozzovivo might be someone looking to walk the final steps of his career on a high pace, continuing on the footsteps of the last few seasons.
Sadly enough for him, the support cast the managers have provided for him doesn’t quite equal to something he can count too much on, but all depends on how much Fothen will have declined. Honorable mention goes to Kai Reus, a rider most are expecting to be repeating and even improving his season at RBC. His versatility might really mark the difference between an average and a good season for his team.
Team
Karcher - Adira
Manager
fintas
Key Rider
Jacob Fiedler: 83 TT, 82 PRL, 76 RES
Key Speciality
Sprints
Last Season
9th PCT
Prediction
7th
The team that surprised so many people positively during the last season is, in my opinion, the team that most could disappoint this time around. Insiders have defined this a sure title contender, but I am not of the very same idea. At a superficial first glance, they would in fact look like one, but what if we look closer at two of their additions individual history? What we make out of it is that Nazaret would be much better in a slightly weaker field than the one he’ll face this season, stacked with top climbers and stage racers.
And he’s one in fact, just not the kind of rider you’d imagine getting top 5s on a regular basis, especially because of his lacking time trial skills. Then there’s Vogt, who might be one of the biggest underperformers of the season, because of his feet-low backup stats.
If you ask me, he’ll rarely be seen in top 20s of the classics he’ll get sent to, while at the same time having McEvoy and Paulinho, much better bets for most races, wasting energies for him. That said, the rest of the top end of the team has almost remained unchanged, with the likes of TTs dominator Fiedler, Kupfernagel and Haussler still out there. My guess is that they will in fact improve on last season’s only just missed promotion, but will not do as well as expected going out of transfers. Should they not succeed, they might do it the next year with a few riders maxing out.
Team
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Manager
Ollfardh
Key Rider
Kenneth Vanbilsen: 80 COB, 72 SP, 80 STA
Key Speciality
Sprints
Last Season
15th CT
Prediction
26th
A really Belgian team with a heavy emphasis on classics. Vanbilsen is easily a top 5 cobbler in the division, and Van Asbroeck is potentially a really good all-round classics rider, with no particular weak points. Even if it wouldn’t seem so, their hilly squad might actually be much better than expected, with their riders being better than average in their backup stats.
What is funny, besides the fact they were the ones that benefitted the most from Quickstep disbanding – their 3 leaders rode there before – is that basically two thirds of their team is unmaxed. It will be interesting to see their riders slowly grow year by year, allowing the team to improve their spot in the ranking come end of the year – assuming they don’t relegate! Obviously, they’ll try to avoid mountains and time trials like plague, as they’re probably the weakest team in both specialities. If they’re lucky, they’ll save themselves from relegation and keep growing their riders for yet another year.
Team
Meiji - JR East
Manager
valverde321
Key Rider
Tomohiro Kinoshita: 81 HI, 77 ACC, 72 MO
Key Speciality
Hills
Last Season
21st PT
Prediction
4th
Just like Eritel is the first 100% African team in the MG, Meiji is the first and only 100% Asian team in the MG. And the result is quite astounding. With 7 riders maxing out since last season, the team seems not only to have drastically improved their domestiques core, but also raised two bright stars in Kinoshita, who I consider the top puncheur in the PCT, and Kenji Itami, a decent sprinter that could earn them a fair few wins, especially since he’s supported by one of the smoothest leadout trains out there. Hayakawa is another potential wins grabber, while Kuboki is a sort of rider no one would mind having.
The Japanese was great in CT last year, and this time around he’s been trained to be an even more valuable domestique at a higher level. But it’s not even over yet, as they can count on climbing to gather more and more additional points. Whilst Ji and Shikai do not have exactly a top acceleration, I don’t feel like saying they will be too shabby at this level. Kwok will be their spearhead in time trials, as well as one of the best in the division. All in all, this team will easily bounce back in PT, with huge chances of standing on the podium at the end of this season.
Team
Netia - Norske Skog
Manager
trekbmc
Key Rider
Maxime Vantomme: 82 SP, 78 ACC, 70 COB
Key Speciality
Sprints
Last Season
9th CT
Prediction
19th
Netia comes out of renewals having overpaid every rider with a wage higher than 50k. Clearly, this drastically reduced the money they would be going to spend on free agents and transfers in general. 155k for Sobota and 165k for Zeits are excellent, hilarious examples. Somehow, however, thanks to some very smart additions, the Poles might save themselves after all. Vantomme is certainly a top rider, whose performances however are inversely proportional to his wage. This means that he won’t be as good as last year, but certainly better than the one time roturn threw all his money over him.
More importantly, their manager bought LLS off Evonik, and while there is no way the Spanish will repeat his astonishing 2015, he will still be one of the most valuable classics riders in the division. He’ll find himself supported by the likes of Palini, in the whereabouts of the top 100 in PT last year, Rabottini and Honkisz, all riders coming from PT disbanding teams, oddly enough. For the rest, the team doesn’t seem to have any more scoring opportunities, but I think their hilly and sprinting depth will gain them another year in PCT quite comfortably.
Last year’s sneaky CT winners step up with a reshuffled look and focus. While their huge last season mostly has to thank their sprint train and puncheurs lineup, they will have their best chances riding over cobbles and mountains this time around. Their former team, because of their declining, have dropped Brajkovic, which the Eastern Europeans can now enjoy, even if on a worse shape than the impressive one he showed the last year. Their top scorer, however, will likely be another: Spartacus himself, Fabian Cancellara.
Everyone is looking forward to see what the Swiss Machine can do on a lower division, after that ageing kept him from dominating the PT like he used to do. He will be supported by no less than Sibilla, a rider that has never managed to prove himself in PT and is now looking for new challenges in PCT, and Nico Eeckhour. The team has the potential to score decently in every terrain, obviously more in some and less in others, such as TTs where even then Cancellara will bring in valuable points, and hills. That said, their mountain and hilly depth will score them quite a few in order to aim for the higher half of the table.
Team
Porto - Prio
Manager
Gustavovskiy
Key Rider
Tiago Machado: 84 MO, 77 HI, 74 TT
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
11th PCT
Prediction
2nd
The team that, certainly more than any other, incredibly underperformed last season, when they were almost unanimously predicted to win the division and only ended up in the whereabouts of the top 10. In what seemed like one of the quietest transfer seasons among all teams, their manager has only brought in 3 riders, of which one especially will be crucial: Bruno Borges. The Portuguese, coming from Movistar, is by far the best puncheur Porto avail. He will surprise quite a few people, and may actually outscore Rui Costa’s disappointing 2015 season, eventually. Although he can’t make use of a good support cast, I am confident he won’t really need much help, and their secondary hilly leader Afonso will be quite good too.
Obviously though, the team’s biggest strength lays in their mountains team, made up of the usual suspect Machado and a maxed Reis, as well as the likes of talented Vinhas, Baltazar and Silva, who I don’t think will be of much help really. Machado will certainly look to improve his disappointing 2015, and so will their sprinting leader Avelino who, hear hear, has gotten trained over the winter. Coutinho will be an invaluable leadout for him, but the Portuguese might actually even step up when the team needs him to to grab a few points. Overall, I genuinely think this team has got an improved look compared to last year’s, and this might be the right year to sneak back in the most prestigious division.
Team
SanCor
Manager
Ian Butler
Key Rider
Florentino Marquez: 80 MO, 80 ACC, 71 HI
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
10th CT
Prediction
30th
Even though this team has no chance of surviving and will quite likely end up dead last, you gotta admire the concept and the role-playing. However, as I treat all teams equally, I’ll just say that this team’s only hope is a great climber in a division full of awesome climbers, but should score them top 5s quite regularly and at least be in the top 50 at the end of the season.
Besides him, there are 28 other riders in this team, and none of them can actually be considered PCT-leader material; in fact, a good part of them are not PCT-material at all, either. Most of their leaders in each speciality are at best 3rd/4th tier domestiques in other teams, and almost all the riders they had back in 2015 are critically overpaid, but I guess it’s still some roleplaying. Sorry Ian, best of luck.
Team
Shimano - Siam Cement Team
Manager
Bikex
Key Rider
Stefan Denifl: 84 MO, 76 HI, 72 TT
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
24th PCT
Prediction
28th
This team, for yet another year, will single-handedly be either saved or fucked over by climbers. The first time it worked out pretty decently and they promoted because of Vitor Rodrigues OPness. Once in PCT they obviously couldn’t only promote thanks to a good climber but at least got saved by Emanuele Sella’s dop… erm experience, even when the rest of their riders didn’t exactly deliver. During this transfer season they took a huge gamble, selling the already declining Italian climber, and buying the eternal disappointment Stefan Denifl off the free agency pool.
Only the season will tell us if wasting all that money was worth it, but my guess is that no, it won’t, and I really hope for them his underperformances won’t be enough to get them back to CT. Aside from that, there’s the chance the Cobbler brother of Yevgeni Nepomnyachsniy, whom I totally didn’t copy-paste, Alexander, could step up and grab a few points here and there, as clearly Kiserlovski will suck more than usual and let them down for yet another season. Franzoi is an interesting name, but he’s too old to be actually worth anything at all. So yeah, long season at best, relegation at worst is my prediction.
Team
Spotify - Haglöfs
Manager
viking90
Key Rider
Jonas Ahlstrand: 83 SP, 82 ACC, 72 PRL
Key Speciality
Sprints
Last Season
10th PCT
Prediction
3rd
This is one hell of a team. They have one of the few PCT riders that could lead a team in PT as well, and that’s Ahlstrand, who is finally maxed. There is no way the Swede will lose a sprint he takes part if he stays on his bike/is decently positioned and his train doesn’t fuck it up for him, but considering the experience of new additions Van Poppel and Kruopis, as well as Kvist, I don’t see it happening. Obviously, he’s the best rider in the team, but he is not the only great rider Spotify can rely on for their – huge – promotion chances.
In fact, Bystrom will be invaluable for them in hilly classics, where he might perform much better than many expect him to. He’ll find a good support in the likes of Reimer, a rider I’d love to train a lot, Hoogerland, Blikra and Hermans, all riders that have been very good domestiques in the past. Besides those, the Scandinavians can count on Lofkvist, who with some smart planning like last year’s, might actually not be worthless. They even have a decent TTT train that could help them score points where needed, only cobbles are something they might look at avoiding. So as said, I see no reason why this team shouldn’t step up to PT after years of slowly improving their position in PCT.
Team
Strava
Manager
Shonak
Key Rider
Jérôme Baugnies: 80 COB, 72 HI, 73 ACC
Key Speciality
Cobbles
Last Season
2nd CT
Prediction
14th
Funnily enough, the first thing I notice is that they have 1 only rider with a stamina that is worse than 70, and in general, the situation is pretty much the same for every backup stat. Which is great, it means that this team doesn’t suffer from backup-o-phobia, something that relegated a lot of teams over the years. Aside from that, they have a great team with some scary depth for both cobbles and hilly classics, where their leaders will be respectively Baugnies, easily one of the top 5 cobblers in the division, and the three musketeers Gilbert, Vanendert and Roux, all 3 very fine PCT level leaders.
Both positions can count on a great variety of domestiques, and with regard to the cobbled classics, I think they’re one of the few, if not the only team that can take a full team of 70+ cobblers to their preferred classics, which in PCM has proved being both useful – see BPost – or actually useless – see Azteca. They can probably look at scoring a few points on the flat, thanks to the additions of Van der Sande and Modolo to their sprint train, but both won’t certainly be top sprinters. The best new team of the last year might be a strong contender for the crown of best promotee in PCT if luck is on their side, with a very possible mid-table finish.
The Africans will finally aim for something better than the usual goal of escaping relegation, and get a couple position upper than usual. With one of the most impressive mountain-devoted teams, as well as one of the better climbers of the division, Riccò, they can easily be considered the team most will be afraid of uphill. The Italian will work alongside Ryan Eastman to achieve the team’s goals, as well as Ratiy who I don’t think was such a smart buy all considered. The trio will be sustained by the likes of talent Meintjes, Augustyn and Stetina, but also by the help of the very fine work of the time trialists of the team Dumuoulin and Reinhardt Janse van Rensburg, in case any time trial pops up in the calendar.
What is even more important is that they can actually have winning ambitions in other terrains, most of all up short hills, thanks to the addition of Hassen Ben Nasser, one of Africa’s best puncheurs, who won’t get quite the same support but will try to benefit from other team’s work to gain himself as many points as possible. Last but not least, the ever solid Nolan Hoffman will be the team’s leader in sprints, and they know that if they are let down by their main leaders they can always count on him to get the overall morale up.
Team
Team UBS
Manager
Bushwackers
Key Rider
Andrei Amador: 84 MO, 78 TT, 75 HI
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
20th PT
Prediction
6th
Incredibly enough, the Swiss bankers relegated from PT during the last season, despite the presence of Amador and Nibali in their team. No one can hide that both of their overall performances were quite underwhelming, and many of their second tier riders didn’t deliver either, and the team had to face pretty much half of the season filling the last place of the ranking. They sold Nibali for a quite modest price despite their reputation of banking tycoons, and managed to keep the Costa Rican stage racer instead. Let alone, it will be fun to see a tip top PT rider fighting against the rest of the division to let the team bounce back, along with the support of a good mountains team.
Their hilly team, led by declining Schumacher and up and coming Reichenbach, won’t be a huge scoring option I’m afraid, while their TT squad will be a decent one, thanks to the training Dillier has been rumored to have received during the winter, as well as the presence of the likes of Goncalves and Ivars. Not much seems to be possible in other terrains, even though Jacobs will try his best over the cobbles, and Theo “slingshot” Reinhardt will sprint as fast as he can. What I actually think is that their season only really depends on Amador, while you can pretty much already imagine how the rest of the team will fare. If he performs as he should, however, they will certainly get back to PT.
Team
Valio - DeLaval
Manager
Atlantius
Key Rider
Ivano Lo Cicero: 84 SP, 78 ACC, 75 PRL
Key Speciality
Sprints
Last Season
6th CT
Prediction
27th
A very all around team that, depending on the performances of Lo Cicero, whom I don’t expect to be any better than 2 seasons ago when he didn’t really shine, might turn a low key season into a good one. The Italian, defined lazy by his former manager, will either be worth it or represent a sad example of wasted money, drawing his team near the relegation places. In all fairness, he’s one of the sprinters that would need a good train the most, and in my opinion, there’s much better set ups around. The team has kept their 2 CT leaders Anacona and Vastaranta, who will still fill a leading role in their respective terrains, but won’t exactly be a huge threat for their opponents.
Different situation for Breschel, who’ll try to add “cobblestones” to the Finnish vocabulary, but is not expected to score too much. Paillot on the other hand is one of the top time trialists of the division, and makes a good duo along with Finnish Champion against the clock, Samuel Pokala. Overall, in short they are capable of scoring everywhere, but nowhere can they pick up big points, which could be a problem if some of their leaders let them down.
Team
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
Manager
fjhoekie
Key Rider
Damiano Cunego: 80 MO, 79 HI, 74 ACC
Key Speciality
Mountains
Last Season
25th PCT
Prediction
21st
The Reporters’ least favourite team was as close as humanly possible to getting relegated, before their leaders showed some pride in the last quarter of the season and stepped up. I’m confident they will just need to perform according to their stats, this time around, to achieve a much better ranking, in the whereabouts of the middle-lower half of the table. The addition of Cunego is quite thrilling, even though he’s visibly ageing and it will be fun to see if he gets to ride a few more hilly classics as well, as both the mountain depth and the hilly depth are there for him to help out.
The core of the team in those terrains is pretty much unchanged, with the sole additions of Paolo Scarponi, and the nostalgia return of Konovalovas, who will be a valuable asset in TTs as well, along with Nepo and Gruzdev. The team boasts an interesting sprinting squad as well, thanks to the presence of French Road Champion Roman Vanderbiest, who will have to prove himself in a lower division after his past team was fed up with his lacking performances and ended his contract. The Frenchie will count on the support of the likes of Ulanovski, Hutarovich and Polivoda.
Team
Vontobel
Manager
Margh Norway
Key Rider
Cesare Di Maggio: 82 HI, 75 ACC, 73 STA
Key Speciality
Hills
Last Season
20th PCT
Prediction
22nd
What is normally defined as the 2nd Swiss team will finally find themselves racing against their friends/rivals UBS in the same division, with different aims however – difficult to imagine Vontobel promoting, but they won’t be as far as they were previously. Di Maggio is where most of the team’s pressure will fall back on, once again.
Although the team hasn’t managed to back him up with a co-leader at least as valuable as him, which is still a tough task, they have certainly built a great base for the next season, thanks to the additions of talented sprinter Appollonio and super domestiques Zardini and Aregger, as well as laying the foundations for a potential future TTT train thanks to the additions of Dal Col and Van Zandbeek. All of this means that it will be a quiet, calm season for the Swiss, but expect them to become better and better over the years.
Team
Wiesenhof - Andritz
Manager
Heine
Key Rider
Yonathan Monsalve: 81 MO, 76 HI, 73 ACC
Key Speciality
Time Trials
Last Season
18th PT
Prediction
1st
What was probably the most surprising relegation from the PT is also what would seem the team with the highest chances of ruling the division. Nominating Monsalve, Flugel, Schadlich, Zepuntke and Zabel would seem enough to guarantee them the best odds to win the division, but a second glance at their roster reveals much more. They do in my opinion have the best or second best TTT train in the division, with only Generali topping them, as well as one of the best hilly supports for their leader Flugel.
They do feature Taubel, a good domestique for Zepuntke, one of the best 3 cobblers in the PCT, a decent lead out for Zabel, Schorn – but of course not top, and their sprint train is really what they miss, and a great mountain depth for Monsalve, who despite the tons of climbers crowding the PCT, will still pick up a huge amount of points. So yeah, what could really let this team down are backup stats, which is what fucked them over last year too, when they were sure of staying up thanks to the presence of Claeys and Denifl, who both still let them down. Even if 1 of their leaders should disappoint, they have other 4 capable of entering the top 50 of the division. No team can say the same.
Best prediction so far (both for our team and the depth of it ), and I have to agree with your analysis. Survival is the key, but with a specialisation in classics, it could go really good or really bad.
Well written and thought-out review. I completely agree that a lot will hang on Lo Cicero. I had hoped to get a slightly sharper lead-out man, but was outbid for everyone I tried to get. Hopefully he'll get his shit together and sprint for me in which case he could be great as there's several flat stage races and his prologue stat could give him an edge in some of these.
Anacona was left as mountain leader when I saw the level of the opposition and knew I wouldn't be able to afford a big mountain leader anyway looking at the climbing skills of this years PCT.
Vastaranta left as leader for story-line reasons as I want the best Finnish rider to be allowed to race for his own chance - even though I know he'll struggle in the uphill finishes especially. But the best Finnish rider needs to be given a leading role by the Finnish team
As for Breschel he sure isn't one of the top cobblers of the division but he has solid results in the past and can be expected to score in races that would be obvious 0-pointers for us otherwise. Possibly slightly overpaid though, but with a bit of luck he could be the difference between relegation and survival due to the gap he fills.
I hope we'll be able to fight relegation, but as you say we'll need everyone to perform the best they can.
Very well written guide! I relly liked the introduction with average age, nationalities etc. And it's probably also the most accurate when it comes to Compal's situation as well. I hope Dekker can hold us up this season, but I realize it will be tough. Thank you for a great read!
'The core of the team in those terrains is pretty much unchanged'...
Right. You know I lost Efimkin, Efimkin, Popovych, Krasnoperov and Kashechkin?
Lower mid-table would be fine, but I still do hope a top 15 after some lucky results (Please Cunego, win hilly shit...) and some well planned races which have proven their value last season. Vanderbiest is probably the main question mark in my team, he could either score really well, or be a disaster...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
I love seeing you guys take time to really analyze divisions and share your thoughts with us
This is a nice preview, great work!
Not only because you rated us at 3rd
The first preview I saw was MARSUPILAMI one and saw my team at 18th and I thought; wait, have I overvalued my team that much...And now 3rd I think the opposite have I undervalued my team
Good to see that Danny is predicted to beat 7 teams. Be fine so long as he can beat 5. We aren't great elsewhere, but as mentioned a little better than last year, and should be much better next year when several of our riders max out.
It's funny how much the predictions for my team are apart. Marsupilami and sgdanny put it into the top 10. Here I only leave two teams behind me. Unfortunately I think your prediction is much more accurate then the other two. Denifl is a huge gamble and if he fails to deliver I indeed could relegate. I feel my team is a little stronger than last season, when I just finished above the red zone, despite my riders underperforming. But it also seems like the division got stronger, especially in the mountains where my main focus lies. Looking at all the teams I'm only quite certain that we could beat SanCor, that means 4 more teams to leave behind, hopefully that will happen.
All leaders will certainly improve their past seasons, especially the main one Rui Costa, because tell me how shit could go worse than last year?
Because of my shitty planning, thats how.
Really nice indepth preview, which really breakdowns the teams nicely.
The duo differange touch is nice aswell, sole reason for spending the last cash on a transfer and not minor training ^^
The fact im most satisfied with Bilbao's racedays of my 3 leaders and he got 4 racedays to spare should warn you of how bad my raceplanning is though.
Top 5 would be ultra sweet, as its a goal and automatic promotion, but I would gladly take a top 10 all things taken into consideration.
Thomas Dekker: 82 MO, 79 TT, 76 HI
Marko Kump: 79 SP, 76 HI, 80 ACC
Stefan Denifl: 84 MO, 76 HI, 72 TT
Andrei Amador: 84 MO, 78 TT, 75 HI
), and I have to agree with your analysis. Survival is the key, but with a specialisation in classics, it could go really good or really bad.
