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Tour de France Betting 2015
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| CountArach |
Posted on 04-07-2015 05:43
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Grand Tour Champion
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We have had this thread a couple of times in the past and it was fairly popular. We can share with each other what we are betting on (with real money, not PCM$) and ask for advice on what others think.
Bets I have done so far:
Pinot - Top 3 Finish @ 5:1 - Solid in case there are a couple of crashes. May also surprise with his climbing strength.
Martin - Top 10 Finish @ 4.95:1 I'm surprised that the odds are this long.
S. Yates - Top 10 Finish @ 11.90:1 - A real outside bet but still good odds I feel, considering the way that he has been riding.
And for today's stage:
Sagan to beat Brandle - 2.99:1 - Given the difficulty of the course I thought that Sagan's bike handling and explosiveness might give him an edge.
Contador to beat Nibali - 1.43:1 - I'd be really surprised if Nibali posts a better time than Contador.
Anyone else got any bets down?
Edited by CountArach on 04-07-2015 05:43
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 04-07-2015 10:24
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I have oddsed quite a bit on previous Tour, but decided not to this year. Ill probably end up deciding otherwise once it gets going since I love playing on the Tour.
I like the Martin-bet. I have said it numerous times, but I see Martin as a much better rider than Talansky and with no big time trials and explosive climbs early on, he could get a headstart. Showed last Vuelta he has got what it takes to ride for 3 weeks. Better climber than Talansky who imo is overrated since his Dauphine-win.
Pinot odds looks decent. You have to bet on some crashes there. Even if, I think Rodriguez will finish better.
I like the Simon Yates bet, allthough they stated otherwise. You never know what happens in the first week and should some contenders crash and Simon still be up there, I dont see why he shouldnt try to ride the GC.
I dont think the route is that technical, but meh. I dont really know Brandle, but 3 times the money again seems fine.
Contador to beat Nibali is the only one I dont like. Odds is to low to have value imo.
Btw, why do you write fx. 21:1 and not just 21, is it some Australian thingy?
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| CountArach |
Posted on 04-07-2015 11:11
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Riis123 wrote:
I like the Martin-bet. I have said it numerous times, but I see Martin as a much better rider than Talansky and with no big time trials and explosive climbs early on, he could get a headstart. Showed last Vuelta he has got what it takes to ride for 3 weeks. Better climber than Talansky who imo is overrated since his Dauphine-win.
Pretty much all of my thoughts summed up. I'm honestly surprised how long Vaughters has stuck with Talansky.
Riis123 wrote:
Contador to beat Nibali is the only one I dont like. Odds is to low to have value imo.
I use bets like that to cover bets like the Sagan one which are a bit less likely. If Contador beats Nibali and Sagan doesn't beat Brandle, I haven't lost any money.
Riis123 wrote:
Btw, why do you write fx. 21:1 and not just 21, is it some Australian thingy?
Nope, just how I write odds. Lots of different ways.
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-07-2015 11:13
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I only made 3 bets this Tour so far. 2 pretty big ones though.
I got Degenkolb e/w on point jersey on 22:1 just when Kittel wasn`t nominated. He now was down to 7:1 or so I think.
Then a big bet on Jos Van Emden e/w today on 600:1, which is a ridiculous high odd for a known prologue specialist. So thought it`s worth the try.
And a 4x head to head for the prologue, in which I use to win 3 and lose the 3rd anyway. 
Quintana to beat Pinot, Dowsett to beat Castroviejo, Barta to beat Cummings and Sagan to beat Clement. In total 9,8:1.
I decided against GC bets as too much can happen in 21 days and odds were too low for those imo.
@Count: Sagan to beat Brändle is unlikely imo. Brädnle really improved this year and is very strong in those time trials I think. I was even considering making a decent e/w on him today.
All this said, I only make small bets of 0,2€ or maximum of 1-2€. So not really making much profit but neither lose a lot. All over the year I am at +31€ and it could have been 20€ higher if I hadn`t lost a hilariously close h2h odd.
Edited by roturn on 04-07-2015 11:15
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| sosososik |
Posted on 04-07-2015 11:20
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Domestique
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CountArach wrote:
And for today's stage:
Sagan to beat Brandle - 2.99:1 - Given the difficulty of the course I thought that Sagan's bike handling and explosiveness might give him an edge.
The course isn't technical, a lot of the corners can be ridden at full gas.
Not saying Sagan won't beat Brandle tho. 
Good luck. 
Edited by sosososik on 04-07-2015 11:21
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| CountArach |
Posted on 04-07-2015 11:23
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sosososik wrote:
CountArach wrote:
And for today's stage:
Sagan to beat Brandle - 2.99:1 - Given the difficulty of the course I thought that Sagan's bike handling and explosiveness might give him an edge.
The course isn't technical, a lot of the corners can be ridden at full gas.
Not saying Sagan won't beat Brandle tho.
Good luck.
Yeah I'm quickly coming to that realisation. Ah well, $3 is still pretty steep odds betting against Sagan on any course
@ roturn - crazy odds on JvE.
Edited by CountArach on 04-07-2015 11:23
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| CountArach |
Posted on 04-07-2015 11:44
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Just made one last minute bet. Coppel to beat Chavanel @ 2.44.
Also cashed out my Sagan bet so that I only lost 40c rather than my whole $4 bet.
Edited by CountArach on 04-07-2015 11:45
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 04-07-2015 11:50
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Staying away from final gc bets and all those. Too much can happen over 3 weeks.
4 bets for today:
Contador over Nibali at 1.6
Chavanel over Machado at 1.55
Frank over Sepulveda at 1.75
Thomas over Kwiatkowski at 2.10
Really like the Chavanel one.
Also: I was checking CQ to see if I would do EBH - GVA h2H and in 3 of the last 4 timetrials they did Hagen finished one place higher than Greg
Edited by Spilak23 on 04-07-2015 11:51
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| lakebeach |
Posted on 04-07-2015 13:32
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roturn wrote:
Then a big bet on Jos Van Emden e/w today on 600:1, which is a ridiculous high odd for a known prologue specialist. So thought it`s worth the try.
Looks like it may wasn't a bad bet, even though there are many riders left.
"It's very hard to work with other guys because nobody wants to work with me so it's better to drop everybody." - Peter Sagan |
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Posted on 25-11-2024 01:35
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| CountArach |
Posted on 04-07-2015 13:40
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Yeah this could be a long and nervous day roturn.
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| emre99 |
Posted on 04-07-2015 13:42
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I have bet all of em'
Cancellara for today!
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| Riis123 |
Posted on 04-07-2015 13:49
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lakebeach wrote:
roturn wrote:
Then a big bet on Jos Van Emden e/w today on 600:1, which is a ridiculous high odd for a known prologue specialist. So thought it`s worth the try.
Looks like it may wasn't a bad bet, even though there are many riders left.
No matter the outcome, its a freaking good odds. If he finds such odds 600 times chances are at least one of them will succeed, its great value and thats the way you win in the long run. |
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| lakebeach |
Posted on 04-07-2015 13:52
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lakebeach wrote:
roturn wrote:
Then a big bet on Jos Van Emden e/w today on 600:1, which is a ridiculous high odd for a known prologue specialist. So thought it`s worth the try.
Looks like it may wasn't a bad bet, even though there are many riders left.
Well at least it looked good for about ten minutes 
"It's very hard to work with other guys because nobody wants to work with me so it's better to drop everybody." - Peter Sagan |
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-07-2015 16:53
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This was close. Meh.
Brandle - Sagan as I expected.
Nibali quite a surprise. |
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 04-07-2015 16:56
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500 PCM on Tony down the drain. What is life. I'm not leaving anything on the table tomorrow |
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| chrisw_bwfc |
Posted on 05-07-2015 17:04
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Ooo a betting thread.
Had an average start myself - only a place with Cancellara yesterday and today's bets of Degenkolb and Bouhanni missed the break, but my big pre-tour bet on Sagan to wear the yellow jersey @ 9/1 is looking very good indeed.
Tomorrow has the potential to be the most profitable betting stage of the tour. I think Paddy has mispriced Valverde as a huge favourite @ 2/1, meaning there is plenty of each-way value on riders such as Bardet @ 50/1. Contador also appeals at the same odds, and maybe even Froome at a massive 80/1 (knowing that it will only take one of them to fancy stretching their legs and the other will follow). Louis Mentjes will probably round up my betting (125/1)
Edited by chrisw_bwfc on 05-07-2015 17:05
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 05-07-2015 17:10
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Both Sagan over Degenkolb and Greipel over Cavendish good again. Greipel-Cav was at 2.9. Will continue to bet that one on the flat stages if it stays that high
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| Dee-Jay |
Posted on 05-07-2015 18:44
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Made an audacious cheap bet on Cancellara to win the stage at 40/1 and he very nearly did it.
My full tour bets -
Van Garderen to finish top 3 in GC still in with a good chance and Degenkolb to take green or runner up was set back a bit but at least Kristoff and Matthews didnt point either. |
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| chrisw_bwfc |
Posted on 06-07-2015 14:50
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Wondering why Sagan has come in from 50/1 to a general 8/1 overnight for this stage :/ |
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| chrisw_bwfc |
Posted on 06-07-2015 17:28
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Right now it's like I look at a bet and the odds shorten before my eyes. Saw Froome at 100/1 for today's stage, went to 33/1 before I could place.
Looked at odds for tomorrow ten minutes ago - GvA and Greipel looked great at 18/1 and 33/1, now 9/1 and 18/1 lol |
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