Hi, so I am going to try and give a brief run down of each months racing, giving you the first hints about who your riders will be up against in the races ahead. I will also attempt to predict the results, which no doubt will go horribly wrong.
Due to a delayed start February will be the first month I preview, but I hope to continue for the rest of the season. Also, if you are in the Pro Tour, you need not despair, I will do a preview for you as well, which will be up when all the race planners are in.
Anyway, here goes.
There are five races this month for the continental tour.
2 for the stage racers: Tour de San Luis and Mount Hood Cycling Classic
2 for the hilly TTists: Volta ao Algarve and Tour Meditteraneen
and 1 for the riders who just get lucky, Giro di Sardegna
First up though it's the CT's last stop it's it's tour of the southern hemisphere, the Tour de San Luis
15 teams contest what will be the first real race for the stage racers this year, with a 19km time trial probably ruling out the pure climbers.
Overall
Looking at the climbers there are an elite group of 6 who are clearly stronger than the rest and I expect the winner to be one of them, they are:
Serpa
Kohl
Marquez
Nazaret
Taaramäe
Abal
of the six Taaramäe and Abal are esily the best time trialists, with Taaramäe the strongest hilly rider. Given that he is also defending champion, he has to be the number one favourite.
Sprints
There are also 3 flat stages here and, although there is strength across the board, the clear favourites for those are Richeze and Hutchinson. Intesa and Red Bull's two pronged attacks means that they will also challenge well for top honours.
Time Trial
Taaramäe is favourite here, although Grabovski, Abal, Lloret and Niemiec are all also in with a shot.
Bumpy stuff
As stated Earlier there are six climbers in with a god shot, and of them I expect Serpa to be strong enough to take the mountain finishes, if not by enough to win the overall.
For the hilly stage I am going to stick my neck out and say Kessiakoff, although again Taaramäe is also a favorite, other options include Kohl, Lloret and Augustyn.
Predictions
My predictions are as follows: Top ten:
1.Taaramäe
2.Serpa
3.Kohl
4.Marquez
5.Abal
6.Lloret
7.Kessiakoff
8.Nazaret
9.Niemiec
10.Augustyn
Points:
Taaramäe
Mountain:
Esmaeli
Young Rider:
Taaramäe
Now onto the next race, and the first one actually starting in February, the Volta ao Algarve
This race is one for the time trialists, the hilly stage has a steep finish, which should give some exciting gaps which will then be shut down in the long individual time trial the next day. Lets look at some of the favourites:
Sprinters
Amazingly there are only 3 sprinters over 75 here and 2 of them are Milka's. Vanderaerden has easily the biggest kick here and should the hills be too tiring for him, Milka other sprinter, Dall'Antonia will be able to take up the slack, anything less than 3 sprint victories here will be a disappointment for the German team.
Hills
Expect Wiggle to dominate the hilly stage with 5 of the top hilly 8 riders here, Ignatiev will probably be their leader, although the 1-2-3-4 punch should make it impossible for any of the other challengers ( Craven, Velits and Van den Broeck) to get away.
Time trial
The slightly bumpy nature of this time trial means that Olman will struggle and leave the road open for Ignatiev to take victory. Elijzen and Kiryenka will do their best to stay close but are unlikely to be able to knock Ignatiev off the top spot of the podium.
Overall
Honestly, this race is Ignatiev's to lose, and the only way I can see him doing so is if Wiggle decide to bet on another rider for the hilly stage, even then I can't see a non-Wiggle rider winning this one.
Predictions
Top Ten:
1.Ignatiev
2.Kiryenka
3.Craven
4.Van den Broeck
5.De Gendt
6.Hermans
7.Velits
8.Ovechkin
9.Diggle
10.Elijzen
Points:
Vanderaerden
Mountain:
Barberi
Youth:
De Gendt
And for the traditional French start to the season lets move on to the Tour Meditteraneen
Another one for the time trialists, although the fact the hilly stage is at the end could give advantages to the the hilly riders, who may be able to go early and build up more time on the specialists.
Sprinters
A very strong sprint field here means that it's anyone's game who gets victories here, although Petronas and Intesa have both gone for the pure pace and ability to get over speed bumps combo, which makes me feel that they may have the edge here.
Time Trialers
No Ignatiev to dominate here, so expect Wiggins, Miller and Larsson to be at the forefront, with Schumacher and AramendÃa close behind, although the small hill halfway through leads me to put Larsson as favourite.
Hills
Schumacher is the clear favourite for the hilly stage, the other strong riders uphill are Monfort, Flügel and Albasini
Overall
I feel that Schumacher is the favourite for this tour overall, he will be close enough in the time trial to take victory on the final stage, a good time trial will probably allow Larsson to be up there in the end, while Kinyenka, Chavanel and Velits probably have the all round capabilities to feature.
Predictions
Top Ten:
1. Schumacher
2. Larsson
3.Kiryenka
4.Monfort
5.Chavanel
6.Velits
7.Niemiec
8.Clement
9.Pasamontes
10.Wiggins
Points:
Feillu
Mountains:
Kairelis
Young Rider:
Kritskiy
Next up, the first North-American race of the season, the Mount Hood Cycling Classic
Only six stages, yet for the 11 teams here, every stage is vital, an ITT, a TTT and 2 mountain stages mean that there will be decisive moments,, and the winner will be the rider who capitalises on them.
Lets go through the talent
Sprints
There are 4 top quality sprinters in the field this year: Förster, Chicchi, Brea and Vaitkus. All 4 have decent lead out men so the battles for the flat stages should be fierce, although the rolling terrain on stgae 2 will probably give the advantage to Vaitkus.
Alarcon is comfortably the best climber here, with Abal and Perez Sanchez the best of the rest. Beyond those three the field gets crowded and there are 20 or so riders who could take the step up to challenge for a top place.
Team Time Trial
The 30km team time trial comes at stage 4 and may well determine the outcome of this race. Here I would say, Telenor are favourites, followed by IKEA and Petronas.
Overall
For the overall competition,I feel that Alarcon's strong team will help him stay close enough in the time trials to take top spot overall.
After that it's a question of comparative time gaps between the mountains and the Time trials, which gives me a predicted final result as follows
The final race for the CT this month is the Giro di Sardegna, a race which is best described as anyone's game. A break may well get away, we may find a very random group of riders winning on the hilly stage, or there may be no gaps and it comes down to the best sprinter.
Sprinters
Napolitano is the quickest man here, and Unicredit have put everything into trying to make sure he ends up on top, with four supporting sprinters also in the team, competition will likely come in the form of Santander, with Ventoso, Guerao and Galdos all potential stage winners. Impey and Bozic are the best of the rest.
hills
Ginanni and Ponzi are the strongest hilly riders in this race, while Kolobnev, Ventoso and Lloyd will be the leaders for their teams. 100% Me have brought a 3 strong attack of Roche, Froome and Martin, while Wiggle continue to show their depth with 4 strong riders around to back up Ponzi, that said, this hilly stage ends in a 20km flat section, which will favour Ventoso and Ponzi, with their added strength on the flat.
Overall
I suspect this race will come down to a large lead group sprinting it out for the win, with bonus seconds deciding the overall champion. Then it comes down to how big the group is, and whether any of the riders involved can get bonus seconds on other stages. Also stage 2 seems open for an enterprising late attacker to get away from the pack and take a solo victory.
I have a feeling that Ponzi will have enough in the tank to take the victory here, although after that the results are harder to predict.
Looks like a good month coming up - January has not really seen many of the big names in the continental tour take to the road - so it will be nice to see the real battles begin!
Looks like a strong field at Mt Hood and Sardegna considering they are c1's. Putting the mortgage in Ignatiev at Algarve
I think the Tour Medeterranian will hinge heavily on that TTT. The San Luis race is really looking like an amazing race in class, going to be a very good rider who wins that one.
EDIT: Only half done, will add the rest when I have time
Now for March, 12 races this month 6 classics and 6 stage races, 6 mountain stages, 5 time trials, 4 cobbled stages, 3 cobbled classics, 2 HC races and a partridge in a pear tree.
First up we are back in Africa for the first of 2 South African races this month, it's the Giro del Capo.
A nice stage race to start off the month, with a sprint stage, a hilly circuit, a likely decisive Mountain stage, before a final uphill finish and then the classic time trial up Signal hill. Lets look at the competitors:
Sprinters
Hutchinson leads the way here, however he is rather a lone wolf, with Mercedes-Benz bringing Sinner and Tolleson, while Red Bull have Jelloul, Ball, and Tour Down Under winner, Arashiro
Hills
Ben Nasser and Roux are the strongest hilly riders here, followed by Moletta and the El Al pair of Chavanel and Konovalovas.
Big Climbs
Moving on to the high mountains, and Abal and Perez Sanchez are the main competitors, chasing them down will be Stetina and local favourite Augustyn.
Time trials
Pendelton's have sent their strong time trialing pair of Millar and Wiggins, however the uphill nature of this short time trial means this may, like the mountains, come down to a battle between Abal and Perez Sanchez.
Overall
The big question is how close Abal and Perez Sanchez can stay on the hilly stages, and while Santander have clearly thrown everything behind Abal, with clearly the strongest mountain team here, while UBS have split their team with Roux possibly working against Perez Sanchez on the hilly stages. Augustyn, with home ground advantage, and a strong all round presence may well also secure a podium in this race.
There is the most pathetic hilly stage ever on this tour, which means no doubt it will be decisive and ruin the tour completely, anyway the riders with the highest hill stat are Gil, Kolobnev and Pineau however if there is a split of some sort then surely Voeckler and Van den Broeck should be up there, although for one hope that it comes down to a sprint.
Mountains
The queen stage etc. at only 95km this mountain stage really doesn't favour subtlety, just attack early and stay away, that said we have a strong field of climbers here, and Alarcon and Serpa will surely battle it out for victory. beyond them Kohl should be up there, also it should be interesting to see how Samwel does in his first race of the season.
Overall
I suspect the overall will just list people in order of mountain stat and so for my top ten that's all I will do.
1. Alarcon
2. Serpa
3. Kohl
4. Nazaret
5. López Garcia
6. Samwel
7. Carrara
8. Gil
9. Stetina
10. Van den Broeck
Points:
Napolitano
Mountains:
Alarcon
Young Rider:
Alarcon
Next up, the KBC De Panne Tour which combines cobbles, sprint stages and a time trial in what could be the most exciting race of the year. It may also be a damp squib.
Cobbles
100% Me's combo of Blythe and Thomas are the strongest cobbled riders here and would expect to take victory on stage one. Their main challengers are likely to be defending champ Hoste and Thor Hushovd.
Sprints
Vantomme is the quickest man here, however Milka has brought Casper in support of Hushovd, who will be looking for time bonuses in his quest for the overall victory.
Time Trials
Stannard will walk this, easily.
Overall
I have a feeling this will be between Hoste and Hushovd in the time trial, with Hoste just sneaking it, however should Blythe be able to win stage 1 solo he may well be in with a chance of winning here.
Predictions
Top Ten:
1. Hoste
2. Hushovd
3. Blythe
4. Kluge
5. Thomas
6. Sentjens
7. Stybar
8. Geslin
9. Kuchinski
10. Van Impe
Points:
Hushovd
Mountain:
Mandri
Young Rider:
Blythe
Now it's time to go to Spain for the Clasica de Almeria This sprinters classic is new this year, however a strong field is expected to turn up and battle for top honours.
So what sprinters are here?
Swift and Goss are strongest, but behind them you have Van Heerden, Davis and Ciolek, all in with a shot.
As such my predicted top ten is:
1. Swift
2. Davis
3. Goss
4. Ciolek
5. Van Heerden
6. Croket
7. Forero
8. Ventoso
9. Bozic
10. Chicchi
Next up we have Nokere - Koerse and surprisingly the field is almost identical to KBK.
This means that the favourites are again Vanspeybrouck, Blythe and Gusev. The cobbles will probably have slightly less effect, meaning the flat stat will be more important, as such I have an excuse to change my prediction and hedge my bets.
Predictions
Overall
1. Gusev
2. Blythe
3. Vanspeybrouck
4. Steegmans
5. Hoste
6. Thomas
7. Hushovd
8. Kluge
9. Albert
10. Kozontchuk
Edited by mb2612 on 06-06-2010 18:15
[url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182]Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
hope we can get some good results this month.
