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Tour of the Middle East - Discussion
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| seancoll |
Posted on 04-10-2026 22:37
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Tour of the Middle East
PTHC – 4 Stages
It’s a race for the history books as the major climbs of the UAE finally get tested by the PT field. No CT teams for this one, as we will still have to await the first race across all three divisions, but that doesn’t calm the excitement for this updated parkour. The riders will face new mountains this year as Jebel Hafeet and Jebel Mobrah feature on two traditional unipuerto stages. The other 600km of racing across the 4 stages is all flat – no immediate signs of crosswinds, but that doesn’t mean the winds won’t pick up along the coast of Abu Dhabi or in the desert ahead of the climbs. Big question marks on whether breakaways will be allowed on any of these stages – with the sprinters likely to be very greedy on the flat, and climbers unlikely to accidentally give a surprise climber too much of a lead on their own challenges.
History
| 2025 | Nairo Quintana | | 2024 | Matteo Jorgenson | | 2023 | William Chiarello | | 2022 | Bjorn Tore Hoem | | 2021 | Sepp Kuss | | 2020 | Merhawi Kudus | | 2019 | Aleksandr Pluchkin | | 2018 | Merhawi Kudus | | 2016 | David de la Cruz | | 2015 | Trent Lowe | | 2014 | Vitor Rodrigues | | 2013 | Thomas Rohregger |
The list of champions include major hitters across the history of the MG including Aleksandr Pluchkin and two-time winner Merhawi Kudus. With Kudus on an alternative schedule and Zwift not in attendance, Matteo Jorgenson will also not be finding a repeat championship in the new classification. Alas, there is still an incredibly outside chance at a repeat champion in 2026 as Sepp Kuss arrives proudly in the colors of McCormick Pro Cycling. He’s likely to be the 3rd to last man in support for Sosa and Aular, but maybe he’ll find power in his previous victory and find his way to a strong result.
| Name | FL | ST | RS | SP | AC |  Peak | 80 | 73 | 77 | 80 | 78 |  Kemboi | 78 | 74 | 77 | 80 | 80 |  Banaszek | 74 | 71 | 73 | 80 | 81 |  Liu | 74 | 76 | 69 | 80 | 80 |  Rodenberg | 74 | 70 | 77 | 79 | 79 |  Adomaitis | 75 | 66 | 74 | 79 | 78 |  Thijssen | 75 | 74 | 70 | 79 | 81 |  Perera | 70 | 67 | 71 | 78 | 78 | | Kragh Andersen | 74 | 65 | 69 | 78 | 72 |  Rajovic | 72 | 70 | 76 | 78 | 82 |  Hesters | 75 | 74 | 75 | 78 | 78 |  Gibbons | 75 | 73 | 72 | 78 | 78 |  Waersted | 73 | 69 | 78 | 78 | 79 |  Zingle | 75 | 70 | 75 | 78 | 78 |
Looks like we should probably be calling Peak the favorite for the two sprint stages. It’s a weak leadout for him of simply Costiou and Mikhels, but the flat sprinting monster will be trying to establish himself as a worthwhile winner for the Bolt-Eesti squad even as their 2nd best sprinter.
Kemboi will also be in for a great shout on these two stages in what will likely be his biggest chance to win all season – and as close to home as he’ll ever be able to get a victory. The Kenyan also features a lackluster leadout, but that’s par for the course here in the Middle East.
The other top favorites must of course be Banaszek and Liu. Neither is quite as strong managing things on their own in the final 20km. Thankfully for Trans Looney Tunes, 77/77 Dylan Page just might be the strongest leadout rider of the top 4 options. Tinkoff - La Datcha doesn’t share the same luxury, but the best acceleration of the bunch might allow them to jump into open space at the right time.
Outside those top 4, the best leadout will almost certainly come from Carlsberg – Danske Bank as Rodenberg should follow AKA’s wheels until the final km. Hopefully for Rodenberg, he can make use of the support and pull out a top 3 stage result and upset some of the superstars above him.
Thijjsen, Rajovic, and Waersted are personal standouts from the remaining crowd as they hunt their own surprise victories.
| Name | FL | MO | MM | ST | RS | SP | AC | | Lopez | 70 | 80 | 82 | 76 | 74 | 66 | 78 | | Ardila | 67 | 81 | 81 | 69 | 70 | 62 | 75 | | Padun | 67 | 82 | 80 | 72 | 74 | 60 | 75 |  Higuita | 69 | 79 | 80 | 76 | 78 | 66 | 75 | | Amezawa | 68 | 80 | 79 | 76 | 78 | 68 | 75 |  Sosa | 67 | 80 | 79 | 75 | 79 | 59 | 74 | | Aranburu | 69 | 77 | 79 | 70 | 79 | 68 | 71 |  Almeida | 69 | 83 | 78 | 76 | 78 | 63 | 71 | | Haig | 71 | 82 | 78 | 75 | 74 | 60 | 72 |  Van Gils | 69 | 79 | 78 | 71 | 75 | 68 | 76 | | Min | 68 | 79 | 78 | 75 | 77 | 62 | 66 |  Formolo | 70 | 77 | 78 | 73 | 73 | 67 | 68 |  Scaroni | 70 | 77 | 78 | 73 | 74 | 62 | 75 | | De Plus | 72 | 77 | 78 | 74 | 73 | 61 | 72 | | Sivakov | 69 | 82 | 77 | 79 | 77 | 66 | 69 | | Giannoutsos | 68 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 65 | 68 | | Aular | 68 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 63 | 69 |  Johannessen | 69 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 67 | 75 |  Rodriguez | 70 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 65 | 72 | | Latour | 68 | 80 | 77 | 79 | 77 | 64 | 73 | | Olivier | 70 | 79 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 62 | 68 | | Buitrago | 67 | 78 | 77 | 70 | 74 | 65 | 80 | | Ndayisenga | 66 | 78 | 77 | 69 | 68 | 63 | 73 | | Van Poucke | 68 | 77 | 77 | 69 | 72 | 67 | 75 | | Mavrikakis | 70 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 61 | 67 | | Faglum Karlsson | 71 | 79 | 76 | 78 | 75 | 60 | 68 |  Vauquelin | 70 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 76 | 68 | 70 | | Misbah | 68 | 79 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 62 | 68 | | Carapaz | 68 | 79 | 75 | 69 | 74 | 55 | 63 |
Without testing the stages, with simply two unipuerto stages, we’re taking a gamble and predicting that the primary skillset will be medium mountain to make the difference between the top riders, although a combination mountain/medium mountain may also be even the strongest setup.
Bolt – Eesti arrives with another top favorite in the climbs as there’s few races on the calendar that fit Ardila quite like this one. Easy stages minimize his concerns with stamina and his pure climbing might make him a tough character for most to beat.
MAL also highlights on the list as a climber with absolutely no weaknesses. If the pace is low on either mountain, Lopez’s hill could also make the difference as he crushes the final kilometer. Some of the climbing purists will need to push the pace from the earliest slopes to have a chance at dropping him.
Almeida and Padun are the two most likely riders to make those early paces happen. Padun is known for finding attacks early – even when they aren’t particularly successful, but shares many qualities with Ardila in recognizing this as one of his best shots on the entire calendar. Almeida has more options across the year, but will attempt to show that when the road goes uphill, he’s ready to take down anyone.
McCormick shows up with a very deep squad and the best climbing duo of the startlist. Aular and Sosa will need to find a clear hierarchy and plan to utilize both leaders. Hopefully the management realizes this and allows Sosa to prepare for a final acceleration while Aular pedals away on the middle slopes to ensure no surprise attackers get up the road.
The list of potential favorites continues with Carlos Rodriguez arriving in his “final form” in an attempt to showcase his talents. A final rankings without a white jersey here would be almost an embarrassment from the Spaniard.
Other potential top 5 finishers include Amezawa, Higuita, Haig, and Sivakov; while the list of challengers extends even beyond those included in the above table.
Startlist:
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 04-10-2026 23:08
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Tour de France Champion
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Early on in planning we pegged this as a race that could be perfect for Aranburu's skillset. The profile seems like a rare opportunity for resistance to be more important than stamina, and where medium mountain is going to be the most important stat. Seems like plenty of others had pretty much the same thought, seeing all the other hybrids that are here. MAL seems poised to take this one is RDC cooperates.
We had race days left over for Olivier too, so we sent him here to hedge a bit and play for depth points. I'm hoping that doesn't sabotage Aranburu too much in terms of priority since all of this is going to be a sprint up a single climb anyway, but we'll see if it backfires.
We'll also see how the sprinting situation pans out. Rodenberg probably unlikely to get a train in this field, even though I would be interested to see how AKA does in that role. I hope he at least sprints and doesn't make Aranburu and Olivier fall off the back randomly merely by existing.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 05-10-2026 01:43
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I think one of two times all season that Aular and Sosa share the same race, we will see how it goes. Hopefully they both ride the GC and no sacrificing one for the other, the rest of the team is plenty deep enough if we need to work.
Appreciate the shout out to Sepp, not quite the same quality field when he won it.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 05-10-2026 02:19
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Super interesting start list actually. Gonna be intriguing to see how this pans out.
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| knockout |
Posted on 05-10-2026 06:19
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Grand Tour Champion
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Between Lopez and Kemboi i have huge expectations for this. Hopefully, this can get close to the massive potential for us.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jaxika |
Posted on 05-10-2026 09:23
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I hope Castrillo as an absolute outsider, can do some surprise. |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 05-10-2026 09:40
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I think Amezawa could easily be in play for a Top 5 result here, but the startlist is as deep as expected, so even finishing outside of the Top 15 is not completely out of the question. I'm anxious to find out which way it goes. Also fun to see that Perera could have a chance for a decent result or two in the sprints here.
For the overall, this is Lopez' race to lose. And Bolt really need Ardila to perform here, not sure how many stage races will be better suited to him over the course of the season. Might already be crucial in their fight for survival.
Thanks for the preview sean, looking forward to the reports!
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| Heine |
Posted on 05-10-2026 10:44
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Great preview Sean! Looking forward to the first mountain test of the season
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Posted on 05-10-2026 23:34
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 05-10-2026 11:01
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Not sure what we can do here, but Adomaitis and Latour could have a word in the respective terrains. Hopefully they can cause some upsets, but looking at the field we can't have too many hopes.
Thanks for the preview, sean!
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| redordead |
Posted on 05-10-2026 11:28
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With a very deep climbing field I'm not expecting a lot from Primozic and Williams. Unless the climbs don't create gaps and they're somehow well positioned to get on the high end of a bunch same time riders. Rajovic is probably my best shot at getting an okay points return.
Thanks for the preview 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 05-10-2026 11:39
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Excited to see this one as this wasn't a route i had much of a hand in more of UU makeover! |
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 05-10-2026 12:35
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Thanks for the preview Sean! 
We’ve brought our strongest possible lineup, so I have high expectations. Otherwise, I fear it’s going to be a long season. Fingers crossed!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| SotD |
Posted on 05-10-2026 16:11
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Pretty strong lineup here. Giannoutsos among the better pure climbers, but I don’t necessarily think that will help him here. Gotta hope for some decent positioning nontheless, and who knows - maybe a good U25 result is possible for Karatsivis.
Gibbons here to maybe sneak a couple of points, but could also be 0.
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 05-10-2026 21:39
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I like this as a route for Formolo, but he just simply does not have the quality to do much at PTHC level, so we'll take what we can get. If Ewan had a few more RDs available he would've been here, but alas we won't be up to much in the sprints either.
Nevertheless very excited for the team's first ever test against PT opposition - good luck everyone!
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 05-10-2026 22:00
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Grand Tour Champion
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Im hoping Rodriguez can do more here then I saw in simulations! His MM isn't as strong as his MT so it is a bit worrying but I would love a decent GC finish and the U25 jersey!
Thanks for the preview and good luck!
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