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Tour Down Under discussion thread
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| Heine |
Posted on 03-10-2026 19:47
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 [C1] Tour Down Under
The 2026 season is up and running and our Australian adventure continues! With the Down Under Classic already behind us, it's time for the 19th edition of the Tour Down Under. Six stages across Australia await our riders. 175 riders in total lining up in Adelaide.
We kick off with a short 89,5 km criterium style stage from Marion to Adelaide. Pancake flat, so the sprinters should get the first leader's jersey. Stage 2 from Wisleigh to Benambra (125,8 km) is a different story, rolling all day and climbing towards the end. The puncheurs who want the GC can't hide here. Stage 3 is the Tanunda circuit (146,9 km) with 5 short climbs, but with a flat run-in after the last one this could go either way. Stage 4 from Cootamundra to Cowra (121,9 km) should be a sprint again before we get to the queen stage, Brighton to the top of Willunga Hill (172,8 km). Expect the GC to be decided here! We finish with 136,1 km from Murray Bridge to Port Elliot where the sprinters get their final chance, and where every bonus second could matter for the GC.
This race has been with us since the very beginning in 2008 when Ivan Rovny took the first win, and it has given us winners of all kinds since then. Allan Davis, Cyril Gautier and Alex Dowsett. The man of the last few years is without a doubt Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni), who won in both 2023 and 2025, the latter with 2 stage wins and the points jersey on top. Demare is not here this year, so we are guaranteed a new winner! The only former winner on the startlist is 2022 champion Jay McCarthy, now riding for SEE Turtles. From last year's stage winners only Christopher Lagane is back, now not a pirate but in the colours of Bacharu Mamachari Faito!, together with last year's best young rider Matevz Govekar (Trans Looney Tunes).
Previous winners:
Spoiler
| Year | Winner | | 2025 | Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni) | | 2024 | Kristian Haugaard Jensen (Genii Hyundai N Cycling) | | 2023 | Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Gobyk) | | 2022 | Jay McCarthy (Amaysim Cervelo) | | 2021 | Simone Ponzi (Team UBS) | | 2020 | Tosh Van der Sande (Farfetch Pro Cycling) | | 2019 | Dan Holloway (McCormick Pro Cycling) | | 2018 | Cyril Gautier (Valio - DeLaval) | | 2017 | Maurice Schreurs (Orange Pro Cycling) | | 2016 | Aleksandar Flügel (Wiesenhof - Andritz) | | 2015 | Cesare Di Maggio (Team Vontobel) | | 2014 | Michael Van Stayen (Venchi - Ferranti) | | 2013 | Alex Dowsett (Jaguar - Eritel) | | 2012 | Allan Davis (Hollister) | | 2011 | Yukiya Arashiro (Red Bull) | | 2010 | Wes Sulzberger (IrnBru - RBS) | | 2009 | Mauro Facci (Warner Brothers) | | 2008 | Ivan Rovny (Maxbo Bianchi) |
2025 stage winners and jerseys:
Spoiler
S1: Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni) S2: Rok Korosec (Bianchi Enel) S3: Thomas Boudat (JEWA TIROL) S4: Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni) S5: Christopher Lagane (Podium Ambition) S6: Gerben Thijssen (Hunter Valley Cycling) Pts: Arnaud Demare (Tryg - Eni) Mtn: Kevin McCambridge (Glanbia) Yth: Matevz Govekar (Trans Looney Tunes)
Benambra and Willunga Hill will be where the race is won, so we start with the puncheurs. On paper  Eiking is the best of them with his 81 on hills, and he's got good energy stats to go with it. He'll be dangerous on both of the hilly finishes. Right behind him are  Van Niekerk,  Van Dijke,  Moscon,  Müller and the former champion  McCarthy, all with 80 on hills. Van Dijke's 71 sprint could make him the best of them in a small group sprint and earn him some valuable bonus seconds.
My dark horse, if you can call him that, is  Simmons. 79 on hills and 79 acc is a combo that should work very well on Willunga Hill together with his good mountain stat. Also keep an eye on  Eriksson, newly trained  Madouas,  Tesfatsion and  Govekar, the latter who won the youth jersey here last year.
And then we have the sprinting puncheurs. Lagane won stage 5 here last year, he's got a 76 sprint and he should be able to pick up bonus seconds on the flatter stages too. That makes him dagnerous. Oliveira and  A. Paret-Peintre (yes, I'm biased) are others who can do a bit of everything.
Will be interesting to see how much the mountain stat will play in, that can help riders like Van Niekerk, Madouas, Simmons, Paret-Peintre and Tesfastion a lot.
Now to the sprinters. Three flat stages means there's plenty to fight for. Groenewegen is the man to beat with 81 sprint, 80 acceleration and a huge 84 recovery, that one will matter on the last stage. Coquard has the same sprint stat and will be the other big name, while  Walls takes over as Tryg - Eni's man for the sprints with Demare gone.
Behind them it's a tight group with Hopkins, Willems, Kalaba, Kamberaj, Kulikovskiy and 2024 points winner El Sabbahi. I wouldn't count out Zhao either. Bacharu Mamachari Faito! have brought Hopkins, Zhao, Hofstetter and Lagane, so they will have the best train if they get a train
There are many riders who can do well here. This should be an interesting one with most of the top 10 from last year gone. If I would've to put my money on one rider I think I would've gone with Madouas. He got everything. I hope my guy can beat him here! Go APP!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 04-10-2026 23:12
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| Heine |
Posted on 03-10-2026 19:49
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Big hopes both for APP and Coquard. Many good puncheurs but these are the kind of races I bought APP for.
A weaker leadout for Coquard here, but hope Welsford as last guy is enough
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| jackgibbs |
Posted on 03-10-2026 20:05
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Maybe not the ideal parcours and strong competition definitely tempering my expectations for Kinoshita, but with support from Smith and Ludvigsson I'm still hopeful a Top-10 is possible here. Same for him on a couple of the hilly stages, and maybe Hayakawa can sneak a point or two in one of the sprints. |
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| seancoll |
Posted on 03-10-2026 21:22
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Aiming for 50 points here, although could be a very tall order. McCarthy should receive strong backup from Nikiema - who may actually be a better option on stages 2/3. Would like to believe that we can find our way into the breakaway on other stages too although I fear we'll be out of contention there with the impact of McCarthy as a potential favorite.
While this really isn't a race fully suited for us, we had to give McCarthy a final chance on home roads and hope that he could regain that 2022 form.
Not sure Van Niekerk will win, but I think Minions is my favorite full lineup of the startlist.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 03-10-2026 21:59
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Tour de France Champion
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Early season so relatively stacked squad, plus how can you not love the TDU?
Lagane - Eriksson duo... (there are only so many races without needing MM and/or STA). Could trip each other up yes, but Eriksson is in with a shout if he's picked to lead, and we know Lagane can handle if he does. If this works, good chances later in the year too, if this fails we could have a rough time more than once this season.
I though Hopkins might be Top5 here so yes stacked the leadout (because one thing have plenty of is leadout men). But looking at that list he might still be 6-8 and then we could have a few surfers.
It's race two so I can allow my hopes to be high and for excitement to flow! Then once it all crashes down around Stage 4 I can start to be realistically depressing.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 03-10-2026 23:35
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My cheeky call here is going to be Paez even if he isn't mentioned anywhere.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 04-10-2026 07:00
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Wasn't my first intention to send Tesfatsion here but ended up happening. Not too sure what a realistic goal is, if the mountain stat comes into play he might be battling in the top 5, but top 10 might be the more realistic expectation to set.
We also have El Sabbahi in his first race, interested to see how he performs in a PCT field, but I have to imagine it's a little too tough for him to get decent points without a lot of luck. A few stage points would be nice for sure though and apparently he won the points jersey before so maybe he'll do better than I expect (even if it was on an older game) 
Appreciate the preview heine! Very excited for the racing.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 04-10-2026 08:40
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Thanks for the preview on short notice, Heine! I probably might not have mocked you so much in the reports in hindsight 
Also it's always interesting to see which hopes/expectations/predictions will be disappointed or spot on ...
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| betancur |
Posted on 04-10-2026 09:51
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Brought a strong team with Oliveira on Debut as a GC leader and Kamberaj as a Sprinter who can survive the hillls. Let's hope we can do something with this combo. |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 04-10-2026 14:19
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First test and chance for an improved MVD to show what he's capable of in this race. Startlist puts him high up and we hope it translates well. Also have Kulikovskiy here as these are exactly the kind of races that he has done well in the last two seasons. He has a decent spot on the Sprinters' list too. Hopefully, they can co-exist and not get in each other's way.
Thanks for the preview on short notice Heine 
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 04-10-2026 15:06
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Bit of a weird race for us as we ran out of Moscon racedays that suited so here a TDU. I've put in 20pts for this race which is top 15 and if he gets that fantastic but another Australian race thats just a lottery |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 04-10-2026 15:18
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High hopes here for Madouas after all the talk in the off-season of what he can be capable of. This will be the first real test. Top 5 in the GC and ideally in all hilly stages is the goal. And same for Willems in the flat stages. So, quite ambitious, but in an unpredictable race, it could go so many different ways. Looking forward to the reports a lot, thanks for the preview and the endorsement Heine 
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 04-10-2026 16:36
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Have great memories of this race as Holloway opened his season and McCormick's mangame run with a win here out of the CT. Seems a fitting to end the sponsor's run with Simmons first race as a maxed leader. Hoping his relatively strong finishing puts him in a good position. No sprinter as this was a race where dual leaders could confuse the AI, not sure if that is still the case.
Margins are always small here and weird things can happen so who knows how it will play out. JT and I spent a bunch of time on this one trying to get something balanced. The goal is the stronger climbing sprinters should have a shot at decent GC position.
Thanks for the preview.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| jackgibbs |
Posted on 04-10-2026 17:38
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Even with no points return it's nice to see Hayakawa sneak into the Top-10 despite an unfortunate change of train from Tryg to Peugeot in the last few kms. Gives me some hope he'll find some (however modest) return with the other two sprint stages. |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 04-10-2026 18:55
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Not a great start from Kuli but there are more opportunities in the race for him. Let's see if Stage 2 goes to the punchers or sprinters. We've got areas covered, so looking forward to it.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-10-2026 20:07
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Great to see the action returning! We start off with a strong squad with both Kalaba and Van Niekerk looking to score big and set us off on the right foot.
Kalaba proving we kept the right secondary sprinter on stage 1, beating out Kamberaj
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| Heine |
Posted on 04-10-2026 21:14
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A bit worse than we hoped for on the first stage, still we are there in the sprint
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