Catching up late, it is ironic that Ardila ends up with you. He clearly has a niche and had some success last year, I do think that niche might be easier to find in PCT. Thinking about it a few weeks late but there might have been some logic to an Ardila/Sosa swap. Although I too have trouble embracing black secondaries.
Sprint squad is fun and I think this version is much less unpredictable on that front for the top guys, so think you will score well there. The question, as other have said, is it enough.
Catching up late, it is ironic that Ardila ends up with you. He clearly has a niche and had some success last year, I do think that niche might be easier to find in PCT. Thinking about it a few weeks late but there might have been some logic to an Ardila/Sosa swap. Although I too have trouble embracing black secondaries.
Sprint squad is fun and I think this version is much less unpredictable on that front for the top guys, so think you will score well there. The question, as other have said, is it enough.
Love the maxed stat line for Tarling.
After looking at planning I would agree with you on that, I think I overestimated Ardila's value based on how we would score in a division neutral scenario, and didn't take into account the realities of the PT calendar. Suspect it may turn out to be the factor that sends me down, in which case at least he'll be useful in PCT next year.
Impressive transfers as always. I should take a lesson or two from you. Hope Gavars does well for you. Good luck on this next stint in the PT!
The same for you with Errazkin and Orosco! I think we probably have some similar frustrations about where we ended up in transfers, but in both our cases we just have to hope we did enough to avoid relegation.
Leader Schedules
Unlike last season, where we had the ability to compete on multiple different terrains and it therefore made sense to share the calendar for much of the team, this year we only have three riders who are likely to contribute significantly. To further complicate that, two of them are (in our view) among the top 5 on the same terrain, which has made planning an adventure. It's fair to say we've made some 'interesting' choices, and we have to hope they pay off...
Fernando Gaviria
4.100
32yo
€830,000
FL
MO
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
76
63
68
72
65
74
76
80
72
83
84
68
71
71
Start
End
Race
Category
21-Jan
26-Jan
Tour of Qatar
PT
01-Mar
03-Mar
Ronde van Nederland
PT
27-May
GP Moscow
PT
03-Jul
23-Jul
Tour de France
GT
25-Jul
Rund um Koln
PT
27-Jul
29-Jul
Tour of Lithuania
PTHC
Planning for Gaviria had two options. Option A was to send him to all of the flat classics and stage races, then fill the remainder of his RDs with the stage races that were most friendly from a sprinter scoring perspective. Option B was to forgo the PTHC flat classics and Milano - San Remo, and instead go and try and win the green jersey. While the logic for the latter was rooted in a belief we don't have a team capable of controlling the flat classics, a degree of romanticism crept in, and so that became the chosen approach.
So Gaviria will try and add the only missing GT points jersey to his collection, while also taking aim at our win goals in Moscow and Koln. We don't think he'll win in Qatar or the Netherlands, but he should be up there on GC, and he should be the favourite in Lithuania. He'll be supported by Hodeg in all of his races, with Dekker and Mihkels there to help out in the purely flat races, and Costiou stepping in when the terrain gets more challenging.
Andres Camilo Ardila
4.100
27yo
€400,000
FL
MO
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
67
81
81
80
68
69
70
74
62
62
75
76
66
68
Start
End
Race
Category
15-Jan
18-Jan
Tour of the Middle East
PTHC
07-Feb
14-Feb
Paris - Nice
PT
07-Mar
12-Mar
Vuelta a Colombia
PTHC
01-May
Fleche Wallonne
PT
14-Jun
20-Jun
Criterium du Dauphine Libere
PTHC
10-Sep
30-Sep
Vuelta a Espana
GT
As attested to above, we realised when planning Ardila's calendar that the PT is much less kind to his limitations than the PCT would have been. We don't believe he is capable of riding hilly classics with a great degree of success, though Fleche Wallonne being shorter should help him in that regard, particularly if things stay relatively quiet until the final climb and he can put his acceleration to good use.
Having entered every week long stage race that fit his skillset, we then had no choice but to include a GT. While we think he'll struggle in the final week, the Vuelta has plenty of stages in the first two weeks well suited to his skillset so we figured it was worth the risk. Our expectation is not that Ardila will offer anything from a GC perspective, but that he may do surprisingly well in the points and KoM competitions while fighting for stage wins - anything else will be a pleasant surprise.
Barnabas Peak
4.100
28yo
€475,000
FL
MO
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
80
64
67
69
67
73
77
77
61
80
78
64
68
74
Start
End
Race
Category
08-Jan
10-Jan
Tour of Tasmania
PT
15-Jan
18-Jan
Tour of the Middle East
PTHC
07-Feb
14-Feb
Paris - Nice
PT
28-Feb
Milano - San Remo
M
03-Apr
23-Apr
Giro d'Italia
GT
28-Apr
Veenendaal - Veenendaal
PTHC
01-Jul
Hanko Classic
PTHC
16-Aug
20-Aug
Deutschland Tour
PTHC
14-Oct
Philadelphia International Championship
PTHC
Planning Peak's calendar was made easier by planning Gaviria's first. As well as taking the PTHC flat classics, he was also able to take the stage races that Gaviria would have ridden if not for deciding to go for the green jersey. That includes our third win goal, in Milano - San Remo, where we're realistic that our aim is a near miss rather than actual goal achievement.
The other big part of Peak's calendar is the Giro, where we hope he will help us achieve our goal of a stage win in all three GTs. His support will mainly come from Dekker and Mihkels across the season, with Costiou and Evangelos also drafted in from time to time. We don't think we'll be anywhere near our top 10 rankings goal, but hopefully with some luck this planning might keep us up.
Very interesting planning to see Gaviria get a GT! You've also spotted a few of the same races I have for Aranburu for Ardila in terms of where low stamina MM guys might do well.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Not overly happy to see Gaviria in the Tour, but can’t say I’m surprised. I hope Farantakis can atleast give him a good battle for the Green Jersey
Him missing out on Hanko, Deutschland and Veenendaal however is very good news for us. I would probably have preferred those over Lithuania I think (might be mistakes the schedule for that race as you seem pretty confident), and maybe even Nederland to get him the 1-day races mentioned as well as Milano San Remo where I really think he should have been used
In fact I think I would have gone for no-GT’s for him to maximize chances of staying up, but I do understand that you also want to see him in the biggest race
Very interesting planning to see Gaviria get a GT! You've also spotted a few of the same races I have for Aranburu for Ardila in terms of where low stamina MM guys might do well.
Not convinced it is the right gamble, but should make what is likely to be a challenging season a bit more fun at least! The Ardila planning is largely out of necessity but like with Aranburu there are definitely a set of races that work around their weaknesses.
Not overly happy to see Gaviria in the Tour, but can’t say I’m surprised. I hope Farantakis can atleast give him a good battle for the Green Jersey
Him missing out on Hanko, Deutschland and Veenendaal however is very good news for us. I would probably have preferred those over Lithuania I think (might be mistakes the schedule for that race as you seem pretty confident), and maybe even Nederland to get him the 1-day races mentioned as well as Milano San Remo where I really think he should have been used
In fact I think I would have gone for no-GT’s for him to maximize chances of staying up, but I do understand that you also want to see him in the biggest race
Swap Gaviria and Farantakis around in that first paragraph and it's word for word what I was going to say in your HQ
I'm now slightly concerned I dreamt up the calendar change to make Lithuania a flat stage race, but it's too late now either way
The rationale for avoiding the flat classics basically comes down to team strength. I don't have a team capable of bringing back late attacks particularly convincingly, and certainly not without ruining my own leadout train. I wouldn't expect that the Tour will have the likes of SKA making late attacks and disrupting sprint prep, so while the scoring ceiling is lower with this route I think the floor is a lot higher. He should get a GC top 5 in all three stage races, hopefully one or both of Koln and Moscow come down to a sprint, and then I'm happy to agree to split the flat stages in the Tour with Farantakis
For what it's worth, Milano - San Remo was never going to be in the plan even if he didn't ride the Tour. The team strength problem is even more extreme, and while Peak will follow the late attacks in my tests, Gaviria never does. It's a shame as he has the ideal stat mix for the race, but actually averaging out tests with Peak leading and tests with Gaviria leading, the Peak-led races result in much higher scoring by a decent margin.
Tour of Qatar
Ronde van Nederland
GP Moscow
Tour de France
Rund um Koln
Tour of Lithuania
Tour of the Middle East
Fleche Wallonne
Vuelta a Espana
Tour of Tasmania
Milano - San Remo
Giro d'Italia
Hanko Classic
Philadelphia International Championship
