As Cunego added a post on the lazy predictions about predictions I decided to start posting these. I will try to post for one division a day and then the total one in the end.
What I did was put everything into excel (like Cunego did on the lazy predictions thread, go read that one, he actually did some real work). Then asked copilot (with claude opus 4.7) to sort it and rank it. First PCT (as the final rankings came out), then PT (Had to make it do it again with the small change with Gazelle/LPH) and last CT. Thus the text might reference PCT/PT but never CT.
I asked it to rank each alone and then in the end a combined rank. It did on some occasians start to believe it was me... We have to live with the quirks here
The posts could look more beatiful as copilot added some awesome emojis... The forum don't work with them
Also, I could've gone and wrote down WJ's predictions, I didn't Thats on me! But what screams lazy more than getting AI to do all the work?
Edited by Heine on 21-05-2026 10:49
PCT Predictions vs Reality — The Full Season Review
The predictions are in, the season is over, and it's time to see who called it right — and who got it spectacularly wrong. Eight brave souls stepped up to predict the final PCT standings, and the results are... humbling for some, glorious for others. Let's break it all down.
First things first: who won the prediction game? Rankings are based on total distance — the sum of how many places each prediction was off from reality. Lower is better.
The undisputed champion of this prediction challenge.
Knockout delivered the most consistent prediction sheet of the lot, and it wasn't even particularly close. A total distance of 92 puts him 6 points clear of second-place JPH. His secret? A remarkably steady hand across the board rather than wild swings — only one truly catastrophic miss dragged him down.
Perfect Hits: MOL Cycling Team (3rd), Specialized (6th), McCormick Pro Cycling (9th), DeNA Roadstars (24th) — four perfect calls is the joint-best in the competition.
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
JEWA TIROL
5th
20th
15
Ekoi - Le Creuset
13th
1st
12
Lotto-Caloi
18th
8th
10
That JEWA TIROL call at 5th (actual 20th) is the single biggest individual miss in the entire competition — a 15-place swing. But Knockout's overall consistency more than compensated. He nailed the top end (MOL 3rd), the middle (McCormick 9th, Specialized 6th), and the bottom (DeNA 24th). When you're right that often, one bad call can't sink you.
Verdict:Deserved winner. Consistent, clinical, and composed.
JPH posted the most close predictions of anyone in the competition — an impressive 12 out of 24 were within 2 places of reality. That's half the field predicted almost perfectly. His top-end predictions were excellent: Bolt at 3rd (actual 4th), Assa Abloy at 4th (actual 5th), Specialized at 5th (actual 6th), Hunter Valley at 6th (actual 7th) — a run of four consecutive 1-off calls is seriously impressive.
Perfect Hits: Spark Team NZ (16th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Zwift - Newton Foundation
2nd
17th
15
Trans Looney Tunes
21st
10th
11
Ekoi - Le Creuset
11th
1st
10
JPH's downfall was two big swings: backing Zwift - Newton Foundation for 2nd (they finished 17th!) and burying Trans Looney Tunes at 21st when they finished a comfortable 10th. Without those two outliers, he'd have been fighting Knockout for the crown. That Zwift call at 2nd is tied for the biggest individual miss alongside Knockout's JEWA TIROL pick.
Verdict:Incredibly sharp on the top half, but a couple of bold calls backfired.
Heine tied with Ulrich Ulriksen on total distance (100) but takes the bronze on tiebreakers — a better median distance (3 vs 4) and more perfect hits (3 vs 2). Heine's strength was clearly at the bottom of the table: Colombini Kometa nailed at 21st, IESE at 23rd, and DeNA at 24th. He also had strong mid-table reads with DK Zalgiris (predicted 4th, actual 2nd) and Specialized (predicted 5th, actual 6th).
Perfect Hits: Colombini Kometa (21st), IESE ProCycling Team (23rd), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Lotto-Caloi
22nd
8th
14
Ekoi - Le Creuset
11th
1st
10
Bolt - Eesti
14th
4th
10
Heine had Lotto-Caloi pegged as a bottom-feeder at 22nd — they finished 8th. That's a 14-place miss that really hurt. He also had Spark Team NZ way too high at 6th (actual 16th, off by 10), making it four double-digit misses. The lesson? Heine's instinct for who's bad is spot-on; his instinct for hidden risers needs some work.
Verdict:Excellent tail-end reads, but missed the season's biggest movers.
Ulrich matched Heine on total distance but loses the tiebreak. His sheet was remarkably well-balanced — no wild gambles, no huge outliers compared to some others. He nailed Specialized at exactly 6th and was the only predictor (besides Knockout) to get a top-10 team perfectly right. He also had strong reads on McCormick (predicted 10th, actual 9th) and Everesting (predicted 11th, actual 12th).
Perfect Hits: Specialized (6th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Ekoi - Le Creuset
13th
1st
12
Lotto-Caloi
19th
8th
11
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
14th
22nd
8
Like almost everyone else, Ekoi and Lotto were his blind spots. His biggest unique miss was Simba Cement at 14th (actual 22nd) — he saw something in that team that simply wasn't there.
Verdict:Solid and dependable. Unlucky to miss the podium on tiebreaker.
The Community prediction (compiled by Cunego) represents a collective effort, and it shows — 12 predictions within <=2 places, tied with JPH for the most. The crowd was excellent at avoiding extreme calls, which kept the floor high but also meant it missed the season's biggest movers. The Community sheet reads like a "safe" prediction: strong consensus picks at the top (Hunter Valley 1st, MOL 2nd, Assa Abloy 3rd) and reasonable lower-table calls.
Perfect Hits: IESE ProCycling Team (23rd), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Bolt - Eesti
17th
4th
13
Lotto-Caloi
21st
8th
13
Zwift - Newton Foundation
5th
17th
12
The crowd had Bolt - Eesti at 17th — they finished 4th. That's a massive collective blind spot. Similarly, Zwift at 5th (actual 17th) shows the community overrated a team that completely fell flat. Interestingly, the Community prediction beat both Laurens147 and AbhishekLFC, proving that crowd wisdom has real value — even if it can't match the best individual predictors.
Verdict:Safe and steady, but lacked the bold correct calls needed to challenge the podium.
The paradox king: most perfect hits, but still only 6th.
Here's the most fascinating story of the competition. kandesbunzler26 had FIVE perfect hits — more than anyone else, including the winner. He nailed Assa Abloy (5th), Specialized (6th), Spark Team NZ (16th), Colombini Kometa (21st), and DeNA Roadstars (24th). Five! That's extraordinary.
So how did he finish 6th? Because when he missed, he missed big.
Perfect Hits: Assa Abloy (5th), Specialized (6th), Spark Team NZ (16th), Colombini Kometa (21st), DeNA Roadstars (24th) — competition best!
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Bolt - Eesti
20th
4th
16
Ekoi - Le Creuset
13th
1st
12
JEWA TIROL
8th
20th
12
Bolt at 20th (actual 4th) is a 16-place miss — the largest single-team miss in the entire competition. Combined with JEWA at 8th (actual 20th) and Ekoi at 13th (actual 1st), those three misses alone account for 40 of his 114 total distance. This is a classic case of extreme highs and extreme lows — when kandesbunzler26 was right, he was perfect; when he was wrong, he was catastrophically wrong.
Verdict:A tale of two predictions. The sharpshooter who also threw a few grenades.
Laurens147 had some excellent calls — Tryg - Eni perfectly at 13th, Spark at 16th, and a cluster of good mid-table reads. But his sheet was weighed down by three enormous misses that were hard to recover from.
Perfect Hits: Tryg - Eni (13th), Spark Team NZ (16th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Bolt - Eesti
21st
4th
17
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
7th
22nd
15
Ekoi - Le Creuset
15th
1st
14
Laurens147 had Bolt at 21st — they finished 4th. A 17-place miss. But the most unique miss here is Simba Cement at 7th. Nobody else had Simba anywhere near that high (average prediction was 15th). Laurens147 clearly saw something in that team that simply never materialized — they crashed to 22nd. That's a bold call that went very, very wrong. Between Bolt, Simba, and Ekoi, 46 of his 132 total distance came from just three teams.
Verdict:Some sharp isolated calls, but the big misses were too big to overcome.
The contrarian who came closest on Ekoi... and farthest on Assa Abloy.
AbhishekLFC finishes last, but there's a silver lining: he was the closest to predicting the season's biggest shock. He had Ekoi - Le Creuset at 3rd — only 2 places off from their actual 1st-place finish. Nobody else came close. He also correctly identified MOL at 2nd (off by 1) and Specialized at 5th (off by 1). The problem? He had some truly eye-watering misses that dragged his total into the basement.
Perfect Hits: Sauber Petronas Racing (19th), DeNA Roadstars (24th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Assa Abloy
22nd
5th
17
Bolt - Eesti
18th
4th
14
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
9th
22nd
13
Assa Abloy at 22nd. Let that sink in. They finished 5th. That 17-place miss is tied for the largest in the competition. AbhishekLFC also had Bralirwa at 21st (actual 11th, off by 10) and JEWA at 8th (actual 20th, off by 12). His sheet had the most extreme variance of any predictor — when he zagged while the field zigged, sometimes he was brilliantly right (Ekoi!), but more often he was painfully wrong.
Verdict:The boldest sheet in the competition. Sometimes that's a compliment, sometimes it isn't.
Let's look at which teams defied the collective predictions the most. Using the average prediction across all 8 predictors versus the actual finish:
Biggest Overperformers (finished HIGHER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
Ekoi - Le Creuset
1st
11.3
+10.3 places
AbhishekLFC (3rd, off by 2)
Lotto-Caloi
8th
18.3
+10.3 places
JPH (14th, off by 6)
Bolt - Eesti
4th
13.8
+9.8 places
JPH (3rd, off by 1)
Bralirwa - Cegeka
11th
15.9
+4.9 places
JPH (10th, off by 1)
DK Zalgiris
2nd
5.5
+3.5 places
Heine/kandesbunzler26/Knockout (4th, off by 2)
The Ekoi - Le Creuset title win is the story of the season. Not a single predictor had them in the top 2. The closest anyone came was AbhishekLFC with 3rd. Six of eight predictors had them 11th or lower. This was a genuine shock that nobody saw coming.
Lotto-Caloi's 8th-place finish is equally stunning. The average prediction was 18.3 — that's over 10 places off. Every single predictor had them 14th or lower. Heine had them at 22nd, Community at 21st. Whatever Lotto-Caloi did this season, nobody expected it.
Bolt - Eesti finishing 4th is another shocker, though JPH deserves credit for having them at 3rd (off by just 1). Everyone else had them between 8th and 21st.
Biggest Underperformers (finished LOWER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
JEWA TIROL
20th
10.5
-9.5 places
Heine (15th, off by 5)
Minions
14th
6.9
-7.1 places
AbhishekLFC (11th, off by 3)
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
22nd
15.4
-6.6 places
Knockout/JPH (21st/23rd, off by 1)
Zwift - Newton Foundation
17th
11.3
-5.8 places
Ulrich Ulriksen (15th, off by 2)
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
15th
9.8
-5.3 places
Laurens147 (9th, off by 6)
JEWA TIROL is the season's biggest flop relative to expectations. Predicted 10.5 on average — multiple people had them in the top 8 — they crashed to 20th. Knockout had them at 5th (off by 15), kandesbunzler26 at 8th (off by 12). Something went very wrong for this team.
Minions were a consensus top-7 pick (average 6.9) and finished 14th. Similarly, Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team was predicted around 10th and finished 15th. Both teams significantly underdelivered.
The One Team Everyone Got Right
DeNA Roadstars: All 8 predictors called 24th. All 8 were correct. Perfect unanimity, perfect result. Some things are just obvious.
The Team Nobody Got Right
Ekoi - Le Creuset: Won the league. The closest prediction was 3rd (AbhishekLFC). Six of eight predictors had them 11th or lower. This will be talked about for seasons to come.
The JPH Bolt Masterclass
JPH predicted Bolt - Eesti at 3rd — they finished 4th. The next closest prediction was Knockout at 8th. JPH was the only person who saw Bolt's rise, and he nearly nailed it perfectly.
The kandesbunzler26 Paradox
Five perfect hits (competition best!) but still only 6th place. When your three biggest misses total 40 places of distance, even five perfect calls can't save you. A lesson in the importance of consistency over occasional brilliance.
The Heine-Ulrich Tiebreak
Both scored exactly 100 total distance. Heine takes 3rd via better median distance (3 vs 4) and more perfect hits (3 vs 2). The margins in this competition were razor-thin at the top.
What the Crowd Got Right
The average prediction was remarkably accurate for the middle and bottom of the table. Assa Abloy (avg pred 5.1, actual 5th), Specialized (5.1 vs 6th), Trans Looney Tunes (10.4 vs 10th), Spark (16.5 vs 16th), and Sauber Petronas (18.5 vs 19th) were all nearly perfectly predicted by the collective.
What the Crowd Got Wrong
The crowd massively overrated JEWA TIROL, Minions, and Gjensidige, and massively underrated Ekoi, Lotto-Caloi, and Bolt - Eesti. The common thread? The season's breakout teams were invisible to everyone pre-season, while several "safe" picks collapsed.
MOL Cycling Team — The False Favourite
Six of eight predictors had MOL at 1st or 2nd. They finished 3rd. Not a disaster by any means, but it's notable that the consensus pick for the title couldn't even get silver. The gap between predicted dominance and actual result wasn't huge, but Ekoi's surprise title means MOL's season feels like an underachievement even if 3rd is objectively strong.
Hunter Valley Cycling — The Overrated Contender
Average prediction: 2.8 (basically expected top 3). Actual finish: 7th. Four predictors had them 1st or 2nd. They were comfortably outside the top 5. The gap between expectation and reality suggests the pre-season hype around HVC was not backed up by results.
This was a season that punished conventional wisdom and rewarded those who could see past the obvious. The top 4 teams in reality (Ekoi, DK Zalgiris, MOL, Bolt) included two teams that nobody predicted anywhere near the top — and the two teams most people expected to dominate (MOL and Hunter Valley) both underperformed their predictions.
Congratulations to Knockout for taking the prediction crown with a commanding 92 total distance. His sheet wasn't flashy — no one's writing songs about predicting McCormick Pro Cycling at 9th — but it was relentlessly consistent, and in a prediction game, that's what wins.
The Team Nobody Got Right
Ekoi - Le Creuset: Won the league. The closest prediction was 3rd (AbhishekLFC). Six of eight predictors had them 11th or lower. This will be talked about for seasons to come.
The kandesbunzler26 Paradox
Five perfect hits (competition best!) but still only 6th place. When your three biggest misses total 40 places of distance, even five perfect calls can't save you. A lesson in the importance of consistency over occasional brilliance.
Having a paradox named after yourself is a great achievement in itself, but it also perfectly describes how the team achieved this incredible season!
The One Team Everyone Got Right
DeNA Roadstars: All 8 predictors called 24th. All 8 were correct. Perfect unanimity, perfect result. Some things are just obvious.
I am not sure how i should feel about this But i guess youre all welcome that i could give you this kind of result you didnt have think twice about
That JEWA TIROL call at 5th (actual 20th) is the single biggest individual miss in the entire competition — a 15-place swing.
Bolt at 20th (actual 4th) is a 16-place miss — the largest single-team miss in the entire competition
Laurens147 had Bolt at 21st — they finished 4th. A 17-place miss.
Assa Abloy at 22nd. Let that sink in. They finished 5th. That 17-place miss is tied for the largest in the competition
I love AI
It probably wrote while it worked through the data, so at least it has been correct before the next data arrived. My pupils probably would have done the same (without noticing too), so AI is strong in mimicking the behavior of unconcentrated and lazy humans, which is essentially what it is build for.
PT Predictions vs Reality — The Full Season Review
The PT season is in the books, and it's time to see how our seven predictors fared against reality. With 22 teams to rank from top to bottom, there was plenty of room for both glory and embarrassment. Let's see who came closest — and who got caught out.
Ulrich Ulriksen didn't just win the PT prediction challenge — he dominated it. A total distance of 58 is 12 points clear of second-place Knockout, and a full 40 points better than last-place Community. His sheet reads like a masterclass in measured, intelligent prediction: no wild swings, no catastrophic misses, just steady accuracy across the board.
His biggest single miss was Rabobank (predicted 11th, actual 3rd, off by 8) — a team that fooled literally everyone. Beyond that, his worst misses were only 4 places off. That kind of consistency across 22 teams is remarkable.
Perfect Hits: Evonik - ELKO (1st), cycleYorkshire (13th), Gazelle (16th), Sony - Force India (18th) — four perfect calls including a mid-table hit that nobody else managed.
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Rabobank
11th
3rd
8
Los Pollos Hermanos
21st
17th
4
Xero Racing
14th
10th
4
When your biggest miss is 8 and your next biggest is only 4, you know you've had a special season. Ulrich's mid-table reads were particularly impressive — Tinkoff at 7th (actual 6th, off by 1), Team UBS at 20th (actual 19th, off by 1), and EA Vesuvio at 3rd (actual 2nd, off by 1). He quietly nailed call after call without anyone noticing until the final tally. The Gazelle perfect hit at 16th is the cherry on top — nobody else came close on that one.
Verdict:Dominant winner. The most complete and balanced prediction sheet in the competition.
Knockout posted an extraordinary 14 out of 22 predictions within 2 places of reality — by far the best hit rate in the competition. A full 64% of his entire sheet was almost spot-on. He had a natural feel for where teams would land, particularly in the middle and lower sections of the table.
But one enormous miss kept him from challenging Ulrich for the crown.
Perfect Hits: Evonik - ELKO (1st), Sony - Force India (18th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
16th
5th
11
Rabobank
11th
3rd
8
Aker - MOT
4th
12th
8
That Carlsberg call at 16th (actual 5th) is the second-largest individual miss in the entire PT competition. Knockout also had Polar at 6th (actual 14th, off by 8), making it four predictions off by 8 or more. Strip those out, and his remaining 18 predictions averaged just 1.4 places off — an absurdly good rate.
Verdict:Incredibly sharp across the board, but a few big misses cost him the title.
Heine takes the bronze, just 2 points behind Knockout. His standout moment? Being the only predictor to place EA Vesuvio at exactly 2nd — a perfect call that nobody else came close to matching. He also nailed Grieg-Maersk at exactly 20th and Sony at 18th, giving him 4 perfect hits — tied with Ulrich and kandesbunzler26 for the most in the competition.
Perfect Hits: Evonik - ELKO (1st), EA Vesuvio (2nd), Sony - Force India (18th), Grieg-Maersk (20th) — joint-best in the competition!
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Rabobank
12th
3rd
9
ELCO - ABEA
16th
7th
9
Aker - MOT
5th
12th
7
Two 9-place misses on Rabobank and ELCO kept Heine off the podium's top step. He also had Polar too high at 8th (actual 14th, off by 6) and Tinkoff too low at 11th (actual 6th, off by 5). His strength was clearly at the top and bottom — he was lethal at the extremes but slightly less precise in the volatile middle of the table.
Verdict:Four perfect hits is outstanding. The EA Vesuvio call alone deserves a trophy.
JPH's sheet has a fascinating split: when he was right, he was very right — but he had a cluster of teams off by 8 places that dragged his total into the high 80s. Carlsberg at 13th (actual 5th), Xero at 2nd (actual 10th), Fastned at 19th (actual 11th), and Polar at 6th (actual 14th) — all off by 8. That's 32 distance from just four teams.
Beyond that cluster, his predictions were generally solid, and he nailed the bottom two teams perfectly.
JPH's belief in Xero Racing at 2nd was his boldest call — and it backfired spectacularly when they finished 10th. He also had Gazelle at 10th (actual 16th, off by 6) and ELCO at 14th (actual 7th, off by 7). The pattern is clear: JPH was excellent at the extremes (top 1 and bottom 2) but struggled with the unpredictable middle pack.
Verdict:Strong bookends, messy middle. The Xero gamble was his undoing.
AbhishekLFC's sheet was sunk by one massive call: Polar at 3rd. They finished 14th. That single 11-place miss is the largest individual error in the entire PT competition. Without it, his total would have been 79 — good enough for 4th place. Instead, it anchored him to 5th.
The rest of his sheet was a mixed bag. He had some sharp calls — ELCO at 6th (actual 7th, off by 1), Fastned at 12th (actual 11th, off by 1), and Gazelle at 15th (actual 16th, off by 1) — but also a string of 7-place misses that added up quickly.
Perfect Hits: Evonik - ELKO (1st), Team UBS (19th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Polar
3rd
14th
11
Cedevita
7th
15th
8
Rabobank
10th
3rd
7
Five different teams were off by exactly 7 places (Rabobank, Indosat, cycleYorkshire, Sony, Lierse), which suggests AbhishekLFC had a consistent mid-range inaccuracy rather than a few wild outliers. He was often in the right neighbourhood but not quite close enough.
Verdict:The Polar pick at 3rd was a season-defining mistake. Otherwise a respectable sheet.
The bottom-table sniper who couldn't crack the top half.
kandesbunzler26 produced one of the most lopsided prediction sheets in the competition. At the bottom of the table, he was absolutely clinical: Grieg-Maersk at exactly 20th, Lierse at exactly 21st, Jura GIANTS at exactly 22nd — a perfect sweep of the bottom three. Combined with Evonik at 1st, that's 4 perfect hits, tied for the best in the competition.
But higher up the table? Chaos.
Perfect Hits: Evonik - ELKO (1st), Grieg-Maersk (20th), Lierse SK (21st), Jura GIANTS (22nd) — joint-best in the competition!
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Rabobank
16th
3rd
13
Team UBS
9th
19th
10
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
13th
5th
8
Rabobank at 16th (actual 3rd) is a 13-place miss — the second-largest in the competition. Team UBS at 9th (actual 19th, off by 10) was an equally bold call that went wrong. He also had Aker at 4th (actual 12th, off by 8) and ELCO at 15th (actual 7th, off by 8). Four perfect hits and four 8+ place misses — the kandesbunzler26 experience in a nutshell.
Verdict:Perfect at the bottom, painful at the top. The same pattern as his PCT predictions.
The wisdom of the crowd... wasn't wise enough this time.
In a surprising twist, the Community prediction — the collective wisdom compiled by Cunego — finished dead last in the PT competition. The crowd's total distance of 98 is 4 points worse than 6th-place kandesbunzler26 and a full 40 points behind winner Ulrich. This is a stark contrast to the PCT competition, where the Community prediction beat two individual predictors.
What went wrong? Two massive misses: Rabobank at 17th (actual 3rd, off by 14) and Aker at 2nd (actual 12th, off by 10). The crowd was also way off on Carlsberg at 15th (actual 5th, off by 10). These three teams alone contributed 34 of the Community's 98 total distance.
Perfect Hits: Evonik - ELKO (1st), King Power (4th), Tinkoff Team - La Datcha (6th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Rabobank
17th
3rd
14
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
15th
5th
10
Aker - MOT
2nd
12th
10
The Rabobank miss at 14 places is the single largest individual error in the entire PT competition. The Community also had Cedevita at 7th (actual 15th, off by 8) and Gazelle at 9th (actual 16th, off by 7). Interestingly, the crowd nailed some top-end calls — King Power at exactly 4th and Tinkoff at exactly 6th are impressive — but was consistently fooled by mid-table movers.
Verdict:The crowd failed where it usually excels. Aker at 2nd was the most expensive consensus mistake.
Using the average prediction across all 7 predictors versus the actual finish:
Biggest Overperformers (finished HIGHER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
Rabobank
3rd
12.7
+9.7 places
AbhishekLFC (10th, off by 7)
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
5th
12.0
+7.0 places
Heine (9th, off by 4)
ELCO - ABEA
7th
11.6
+4.6 places
AbhishekLFC (6th, off by 1)
Fastned
11th
15.3
+4.3 places
AbhishekLFC (12th, off by 1)
Los Pollos Hermanos
17th
20.4
+3.4 places
kandesbunzler26 (19th, off by 2)
Rabobank finishing 3rd is the undisputed story of the PT season. The average prediction was 12.7 — not a single predictor had them in the top 9. The closest anyone came was AbhishekLFC with 10th, still 7 places off. Everyone else had them between 11th and 17th. Whatever Rabobank did this season, it blindsided the entire prediction field.
Carlsberg - Danske Bank at 5th is the other major shock. Predicted around 12th on average, with Heine's 9th being the closest call. Five of seven predictors had them 13th or lower.
Biggest Underperformers (finished LOWER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
Polar
14th
7.3
-6.7 places
Community (11th, off by 3)
Aker - MOT
12th
6.9
-5.1 places
JPH (8th, off by 4)
Cedevita
15th
11.4
-3.6 places
Ulrich Ulriksen (12th, off by 3)
Gazelle
16th
12.7
-3.3 places
Ulrich Ulriksen (16th, off by 0)
Team UBS
19th
16.3
-2.7 places
Heine (17th, off by 2)
Polar is the season's biggest disappointment. The average prediction had them at 7.3 — a solid top-half finish. They ended up 14th. AbhishekLFC had them at 3rd (off by 11), and four other predictors had them in the top 8. The collective overconfidence in Polar was the PT's version of the PCT's JEWA TIROL disaster.
Aker - MOT was the other big letdown. Predicted around 7th on average — with Community even backing them for 2nd — they sank to 12th. Gazelle also underperformed at 16th, though Ulrich Ulriksen was the one predictor who saw it coming, nailing them perfectly.
The One Team Everyone Got Right
Evonik - ELKO: All 7 predictors called 1st. All 7 were correct. The most dominant consensus pick across both PT and PCT. Nobody even considered anyone else for the title.
The Team Nobody Saw Coming
Rabobank at 3rd: Average prediction 12.7. Not a single predictor had them in the top 9. AbhishekLFC's 10th was the closest anyone came. This is the PT equivalent of Ekoi - Le Creuset's shock PCT title — except even more dramatic in terms of how far off everyone was.
The Ulrich Masterclass
Ulrich Ulriksen won by a commanding 12-point margin. His biggest miss was only 8 places (Rabobank — which fooled everyone). His next biggest was only 4. That level of consistency across 22 teams is genuinely exceptional. For context, his average distance of 2.64 per team means he was typically less than 3 places off on every single prediction. And he's one of only two predictors (alongside Heine) to have 4 perfect hits.
Knockout's Hit Rate
14 out of 22 predictions within 2 places of reality — that's 64%. Nobody else was even close. Heine, Ulrich, kandesbunzler26, and Community managed 9 each. Knockout's problem was that his few misses were large (Carlsberg off by 11, three teams off by 8), which inflated his total despite the incredible accuracy elsewhere.
Heine's EA Vesuvio Exclusive
Heine was the only predictor to nail EA Vesuvio at exactly 2nd place. The next closest was Ulrich at 3rd (off by 1). Everyone else had EA Vesuvio between 3rd and 8th. Combined with Sony (18th) and Grieg (20th), Heine had the joint-most perfect hits with 4.
kandesbunzler26's Bottom-Three Sweep
Perfectly predicting the bottom three teams — Grieg-Maersk (20th), Lierse SK (21st), and Jura GIANTS (22nd) — is a remarkable feat. Combined with Evonik at 1st, that's 4 perfect hits. But his top-half accuracy was the worst in the competition, showing the same pattern as his PCT predictions: deadly at the extremes, wild in the middle.
The Crowd's Worst Performance
The Community prediction finished last with 98 total distance. In the PCT, the crowd beat two individual predictors. In the PT, it lost to everyone. The key difference? The crowd massively overrated Aker - MOT (predicted 2nd, actual 12th) and was completely blindsided by Rabobank (predicted 17th, actual 3rd). When the consensus gets it wrong, it gets it really wrong.
The Polar Meltdown
Polar was the most overrated team in the competition. Average prediction: 7.3. Actual finish: 14th. AbhishekLFC had them at 3rd — an 11-place miss that was the largest individual error in the entire PT. Five of seven predictors had Polar in the top 8. Something clearly went wrong for this team mid-season.
Comparing PT and PCT
Interestingly, the PT standings shake up the PCT order significantly. Ulrich Ulriksen, who finished 4th in the PCT, dominates the PT. Knockout remains strong (2nd in both). JPH drops from 2nd in PCT to 4th in PT. The only consistent thread? Predicting cycling standings is hard, and different predictors have different strengths in different tiers.
The PT season was defined by one team: Rabobank. Their surge from a predicted ~13th to an actual 3rd-place finish caught every single predictor off guard and was the single biggest source of prediction error across the board. Remove Rabobank from the equation, and every predictor's total drops significantly.
Congratulations to Ulrich Ulriksen for a commanding victory with just 58 total distance. In a competition where the average total was 81, scoring 58 is like winning by two laps. His measured, no-gamble approach paid off handsomely — proof that in prediction games, consistency beats boldness every time.
CT Predictions vs Reality — The Full Season Review
The final tier is in. After dissecting the PCT and PT predictions, it's time to turn our attention to the Continental Teams — the grassroots of the game. Six predictors, 16 teams, and margins so tight that a single call could make or break your ranking. This was, by far, the closest prediction battle of the three competitions. Let's get into it.
After finishing 6th in both the PCT and PT competitions, kandesbunzler26 saved his best for last — and what a performance it was. A total distance of just 30 across 16 teams means he averaged under 2 places off per team. Even more impressive: 13 of his 16 predictions were within 2 places of reality. That's an 81% close-call rate, the best in the entire CT competition.
His sheet was a masterclass in steady, measured prediction. No wild swings, no massive gambles — just relentless accuracy from top to bottom. His biggest miss was Ethiopian Airlines at 7th (actual 2nd, off by 5), a team that caught everyone off guard.
Perfect Hits: Euskotren - Pays Basque (8th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Ethiopian Airlines
7th
2nd
5
Kone-Nordea
16th
12th
4
Glanbia
10th
13th
3
When your biggest miss is 5 and your third-biggest is only 3, you know you've had a special season. kandesbunzler26 nailed the top section (Kraftwerk 1st, off by 2; Peugeot 2nd, off by 2; Bianchi 3rd, off by 2) and was lethal in the middle (Podium 4th, off by 1; SEE Turtles 5th, off by 1; Euskadi 6th, off by 1). Six consecutive teams within 2 places of reality — remarkable.
Verdict:The perfect redemption. From 6th in PCT and PT to champion in CT. Consistency finally rewarded.
Ulrich Ulriksen continues his extraordinary run of consistency across all three competitions: 4th in PCT, 1st in PT, and now 2nd in CT. A total distance of 32 puts him just 2 points behind kandesbunzler26 — agonizingly close to back-to-back wins. His sheet was characteristically balanced, with 12 of 16 predictions within 2 places of reality.
His one real weakness? Ethiopian Airlines. Like almost everyone, he had them too low at 7th (actual 2nd, off by 5). Beyond that, his biggest miss was Euskotren at 12th (actual 8th, off by 4) — hardly a disaster.
Perfect Hits: Tafjord Kraft (10th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Ethiopian Airlines
7th
2nd
5
Euskotren - Pays Basque
12th
8th
4
Podium Ambition
2nd
5th
3
Ulrich's lower-table predictions were outstanding — The ONE at 13th (actual 14th, off by 1), Team Zappes at 16th (actual 15th, off by 1), Air NZ at 15th (actual 16th, off by 1). Three consecutive near-perfect calls at the bottom. Combined with his Tafjord perfect hit and strong mid-table reads, this was another vintage Ulrich performance.
Verdict:Rock solid once again. Three competitions, three top-4 finishes. The most consistent predictor across all tiers.
Here's the most extraordinary stat in the entire CT competition: JPH nailed FIVE teams perfectly — Peugeot - Bancolombia (4th), Tafjord Kraft (10th), Kone-Nordea (12th), Team Zappes Kolsch (15th), and Air New Zealand-Prada (16th). Five out of sixteen. That's a 31% perfect-hit rate — far and away the best in the competition. kandesbunzler26, the winner, had just one.
So how did JPH finish 3rd? Two words: Glanbia and Euskotren.
Perfect Hits: Peugeot - Bancolombia (4th), Tafjord Kraft (10th), Kone-Nordea (12th), Team Zappes Kolsch (15th), Air New Zealand-Prada (16th) — competition best by a mile!
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Glanbia
6th
13th
7
Euskotren - Pays Basque
14th
8th
6
Euskadi-Murias
3rd
7th
4
Glanbia at 6th (actual 13th) is a 7-place miss — the second-largest in the CT competition. Euskotren at 14th (actual 8th) added another 6 places. Those two teams alone cost JPH 13 distance — the difference between winning and finishing 3rd. Without those misses, his total would have been 21. Twenty-one! That would have been the most dominant prediction performance across all three tiers.
JPH takes 3rd over Heine and Community via the tiebreaker — his 5 perfect hits massively outweigh Heine's 2 and Community's 1.
Verdict:The sharpshooter strikes again. Five perfect hits is extraordinary — but Glanbia at 6th was a costly misfire.
Full disclosure: I predicted my own team, Peugeot - Bancolombia, to win the CT. They finished 4th. Off by 3. Not terrible — but not the fairy tale ending I was hoping for. In my defence, Community also had Peugeot at 1st, so I wasn't the only believer.
Beyond the homer pick, my sheet had some genuine highlights. I was the only predictor to perfectly call both Euskadi-Murias (7th) and Euskotren - Pays Basque (8th) — a double hit in the middle of the table that nobody else managed. I also nailed Ethiopian Airlines closest of anyone, predicting 4th (actual 2nd, off by just 2).
Perfect Hits: Euskadi-Murias (7th), Euskotren - Pays Basque (8th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
SEE Turtles
10th
6th
4
IncaLine Pro Cycling
5th
9th
4
Team Zappes Kolsch
11th
15th
4
Kone-Nordea
16th
12th
4
Four teams tied at exactly 4 places off — my biggest misses were all modest and evenly spread. No catastrophic blowouts, but also no single dominant strength beyond the Euskadi/Euskotren double. My Ethiopian call at 4th was the closest anyone came to the season's biggest shock, which is a small consolation.
I lose the tiebreak to JPH on perfect hits (2 vs 5). Fair enough — five perfect calls is hard to argue with.
Verdict:Solid and steady, but lacked the killer instinct to break the three-way tie. The Euskadi/Euskotren double was my crowning moment.
The crowd with the lowest median... but fewest perfect hits.
The Community prediction ties JPH and Heine at 34 total distance but finishes 5th on the tiebreaker — just 1 perfect hit compared to JPH's 5 and Heine's 2. What makes this result fascinating is that Community actually has the lowest median distance of any predictor in the entire CT competition: just 1.0. That means more than half of their predictions were within 1 place of reality. Twelve of sixteen predictions were within 2 places. The crowd was incredibly consistent — but when it missed, it missed spectacularly.
Perfect Hits: The ONE - Fox God (14th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Glanbia
4th
13th
9
Ethiopian Airlines
7th
2nd
5
Kone-Nordea
16th
12th
4
That Glanbia call at 4th (actual 13th) is the single largest individual miss in the entire CT competition — a 9-place swing. The crowd clearly believed in Glanbia as a top-5 team, and they crashed to 13th. Without that one miss, Community would have had 25 total distance — which would have won the competition by 5 points. One bad call made all the difference.
Verdict:Incredibly consistent (median 1.0!) but Glanbia at 4th was a catastrophic consensus error.
AbhishekLFC finishes last in the CT, and the reason can be summed up in two words: Ethiopian Airlines. He had them at 13th. They finished 2nd. That's an 11-place miss — the largest individual error in the entire CT competition by a wide margin. For context, the second-largest miss was Community's Glanbia at 9 places.
Without Ethiopian Airlines, AbhishekLFC's total would have been 43 — still last, but much closer to the pack. The problem was compounded by Bianchi Enel at 7th (actual 1st, off by 6) and Air NZ at 10th (actual 16th, off by 6). Three teams off by 6+ places is hard to recover from in a 16-team competition.
Perfect Hits: The ONE - Fox God (14th).
Biggest Misses:
Team
Predicted
Actual
Off By
Ethiopian Airlines
13th
2nd
11
Bianchi Enel
7th
1st
6
Air New Zealand-Prada
10th
16th
6
AbhishekLFC did have some solid calls — IncaLine at 4th (actual 9th, off by 5) aside, he nailed Peugeot at 5th (actual 4th, off by 1), Glanbia at 12th (actual 13th, off by 1), and The ONE at 14th (perfect). But in a field this tight, one 11-place blowout is simply unrecoverable.
Verdict:The Ethiopian pick at 13th was the single most damaging prediction across the entire CT. Without it, this would have been a very different story.
Using the average prediction across all 6 predictors versus the actual finish:
Biggest Overperformers (finished HIGHER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
Ethiopian Airlines
2nd
7.2
+5.2 places
Heine (4th, off by 2)
Kone-Nordea
12th
14.8
+2.8 places
JPH (12th, off by 0)
Bianchi Enel
1st
3.5
+2.5 places
JPH (2nd, off by 1)
SEE Turtles
6th
7.5
+1.5 places
kandesbunzler26 / Community (5th, off by 1)
Euskotren - Pays Basque
8th
9.5
+1.5 places
Heine / kandesbunzler26 (8th, off by 0)
Ethiopian Airlines finishing 2nd is the undisputed shock of the CT season. Not a single predictor had them in the top 4 except Heine (4th, off by 2). AbhishekLFC had them at 13th — an 11-place miss. The average prediction of 7.2 means most people saw them as a solid mid-table team, not a title contender. Whatever happened behind the scenes, Ethiopian Airlines massively outperformed expectations.
Bianchi Enel winning the CT is also notable — though the crowd was closer here (avg 3.5), nobody actually predicted them to finish 1st. JPH was the closest with 2nd.
Biggest Underperformers (finished LOWER than predicted)
Team
Actual Finish
Avg Prediction
Gap
Closest Predictor
Glanbia
13th
9.2
-3.8 places
Heine / AbhishekLFC (12th, off by 1)
Euskadi-Murias
7th
5.2
-1.8 places
Heine (7th, off by 0)
Air New Zealand-Prada
16th
14.2
-1.8 places
JPH (16th, off by 0)
Kraftwerk Man Machine
3rd
1.3
-1.7 places
Heine (2nd, off by 1)
IncaLine Pro Cycling
9th
7.7
-1.3 places
JPH / Ulrich Ulriksen (8th, off by 1)
Glanbia is the CT's biggest disappointment. The Community had them at 4th — they finished 13th. JPH had them at 6th (off by 7). Only Heine and AbhishekLFC came close with 12th. This was a team that many believed would be a top-half finisher, and they simply weren't.
Kraftwerk Man Machine is an interesting case — predicted 1st by five of six predictors (avg 1.3), they "only" finished 3rd. Not a disaster, but when you're the overwhelming favourite and don't win, it counts as an underperformance. Bianchi Enel and Ethiopian Airlines both leapfrogged them.
THE WISDOM OF THE CROWD — Average Predictions vs Reality
Team
Actual
Avg Prediction
Avg Distance
Verdict
Tafjord Kraft
10th
10.2
0.17
Near perfect
Parmalat - Ecopetrol
11th
10.8
0.17
Near perfect
Podium Ambition
5th
4.5
0.50
Very close
Peugeot - Bancolombia
4th
3.2
0.83
Close
The ONE - Fox God
14th
13.2
0.83
Close
Team Zappes Kolsch
15th
14.2
0.83
Close
IncaLine Pro Cycling
9th
7.7
1.33
Close
SEE Turtles
6th
7.5
1.50
Close
Euskotren - Pays Basque
8th
9.5
1.50
Close
Kraftwerk Man Machine
3rd
1.3
1.67
Slight overrate
Euskadi-Murias
7th
5.2
1.83
Slightly overrated
Air New Zealand-Prada
16th
14.2
1.83
Slightly overrated
Bianchi Enel
1st
3.5
2.50
Underrated
Kone-Nordea
12th
14.8
2.83
Underrated
Glanbia
13th
9.2
3.83
Overrated
Ethiopian Airlines
2nd
7.2
5.17
Season's biggest shock
Total average distance across all teams: 27.3
For context, the PCT total was 88.3 and the PT total was 69.7. The CT predictions were far more accurate across the board — partly because 16 teams offers less room for error, but also because this field clearly knew their CT teams well.
The Tightest Competition of All Three Tiers
Just 4 points separate 1st from 5th. In the PCT, 18 points separated 1st from 5th. In the PT, 36 points. The CT was a knife fight in a phone booth — every single prediction mattered.
kandesbunzler26's Redemption Arc
6th in PCT. 6th in PT. 1st in CT. kandesbunzler26 went from consistent bottom-half finisher to champion in the final tier. His 81% close-call rate (13/16 within 2 places) is the highest of any predictor in any tier across all three competitions. When it mattered most, he delivered the most complete prediction sheet of the season.
The JPH Paradox, Part 2
Remember kandesbunzler26's paradox in the PCT? Five perfect hits but only 6th place. JPH does something similar here: 5 perfect hits — the most in the CT by far — but only 3rd. His Glanbia (off by 7) and Euskotren (off by 6) misses cost him 13 distance. Without those two, his total would have been 21 — which would have destroyed the field. Consistency beats brilliance, again.
The Homer Pick
Heine predicted his own team, Peugeot - Bancolombia, to win the CT. They finished 4th (off by 3). Community also backed Peugeot for 1st. The homer faith was shared but ultimately misplaced — Bianchi Enel and Ethiopian Airlines had other ideas.
The Ethiopian Airlines Shock
Average prediction: 7.2. Actual finish: 2nd. The biggest individual shock in the CT, and the one team that separated the good predictions from the great ones. Heine's 4th-place call (off by 2) was the closest anyone came, and it was his Ethiopian read that kept him competitive in the three-way tie.
The Community's Glanbia Catastrophe
Community had Glanbia at 4th. They finished 13th. That 9-place miss is the single largest individual error in the CT and single-handedly cost the crowd the competition. Without it, Community would have had 25 total distance — winning by 5 points. One bad consensus call changed everything.
Ulrich Ulriksen: Mr. Consistent
4th in PCT, 1st in PT, 2nd in CT. Ulrich never finishes outside the top 4. His combined total across all three tiers is the lowest of any predictor — the ultimate all-rounder. If there were an overall championship, Ulrich would be the undisputed winner.
AbhishekLFC's Recurring Theme
8th (last) in PCT, 5th in PT, 6th (last) in CT. AbhishekLFC continues to struggle, and the pattern is always the same: one or two massive outlier calls that inflate his total beyond recovery. In the PCT it was Assa Abloy at 22nd. In the CT it's Ethiopian Airlines at 13th. Bold calls, painful results.
The CT competition was the closest and most competitive of all three tiers, and it produced the most surprising winner. kandesbunzler26, after two 6th-place finishes in PCT and PT, finally put it all together when it mattered — not with flashy perfect hits, but with grinding, relentless accuracy. Just one perfect call, but 13 out of 16 within 2 places. That's how you win prediction games.
The three-way tie at 34 between JPH, Heine, and Community is the defining story of this competition. JPH wins the tiebreak with an incredible 5 perfect hits — but his two big misses (Glanbia and Euskotren) are the reason he's celebrating 3rd instead of 1st. Heine's homer pick on Peugeot didn't quite pay off, but his Ethiopian Airlines call (closest in the field) showed sharp instincts. And Community proved that even the wisdom of the crowd can be undone by a single bad consensus call.
Congratulations to kandesbunzler26 for taking the CT crown. From last-tier finisher to champion — the redemption arc we didn't see coming.
PCT. PT. CT. Three competitions, 62 teams across three tiers, and months of predictions put to the ultimate test against reality. We've broken down each tier individually — now it's time for the final reckoning. Who is the best overall predictor? Who crumbled under pressure? And what did we learn about the art of prediction?
Ulrich Ulriksen is the undisputed overall champion, and it's not even particularly close. His combined total of 190 is 16 points clear of second-place Heine, and his average distance of 3.06 per team is the lowest of any predictor across all three tiers. He never once finished outside the top 4 — a level of consistency that nobody else can match.
What makes Ulrich special isn't flashy perfect hits (he had 7) or bold contrarian calls. It's the complete absence of catastrophic misses. His biggest individual miss across all 62 teams was Lotto-Caloi in the PCT — predicted 19th, actual 8th, off by 11. That's bad, but consider this: most other predictors had multiple misses of 13+ places. Ulrich's worst was 11, and his second-worst was only 8 (Rabobank in the PT). That ceiling on errors is what separates him from the field.
His trajectory across the tiers tells a story of improvement: 4th in PCT (100), dominant 1st in PT (58), and a close 2nd in CT (32). He got better as the season went on.
Strengths: Relentless consistency, no catastrophic misses, balanced accuracy across all table positions Weaknesses: Never had a single "wow" call that stood out from the crowd Signature moment: Winning the PT by 12 points with a maximum miss of just 8 places
Verdict:The complete predictor. Not the most exciting, not the most precise — but far and away the most reliable. Deserved champion.
Three tiers, three top-4 finishes — including three consecutive bronzes/near-bronzes. Heine never won a tier, but he never bombed one either. His combined 206 puts him 16 behind Ulrich but 12 ahead of JPH, cementing a clear second place in the overall standings.
Heine's greatest strength was his instinct for the extremes. He was deadly at predicting who would finish near the top and near the bottom. In the PCT, he nailed Colombini Kometa (21st), IESE (23rd), and DeNA (24th) perfectly. In the PT, he was the only predictor to nail EA Vesuvio at exactly 2nd, and he perfectly hit Grieg-Maersk (20th) and Sony (18th). In the CT, he was the only one to perfectly call both Euskadi-Murias (7th) and Euskotren (8th). His 9 total perfect hits is the third-best in the competition.
His weakness? The same across every tier: he consistently missed the season's biggest risers. Lotto-Caloi at 22nd (actual 8th) in PCT. Rabobank at 12th (actual 3rd) in PT. These are the teams that surged from nowhere, and Heine didn't see any of them coming.
Strengths: Excellent extreme-table accuracy, consistent top-4 finishes, strong perfect-hit count (9) Weaknesses: Missed every major "riser" team, never won a tier outright Signature moment: Being the only predictor to nail EA Vesuvio at exactly 2nd in the PT
Verdict:The most consistent podium finisher. Always competitive, never dominant. A reliable pair of hands across all three tiers.
JPH has the most perfect hits of any predictor: 10 across all three tiers — tied with kandesbunzler26. But while kandesbunzler26's perfect hits were clustered at the extremes (bottom teams, Evonik), JPH's were spread across the entire table: Spark Team NZ (PCT, 16th), Peugeot - Bancolombia (CT, 4th), Tafjord Kraft (CT, 10th), Kone-Nordea (CT, 12th), and more. He had a genuine feel for where teams would land — when he locked in, he was pinpoint accurate.
The problem? JPH also had some of the most spectacular individual misses. Zwift - Newton Foundation at 2nd in PCT (actual 17th, off by 15). Xero Racing at 2nd in PT (actual 10th, off by 8). Glanbia at 6th in CT (actual 13th, off by 7). His willingness to make bold calls gave him both his highest highs and his lowest lows.
His 2nd place in PCT shows he can compete with the very best. His 4th in PT and 3rd in CT show that when the bold calls don't land, they cost him dearly. JPH is the predictor you'd most want to watch — he's never boring.
Strengths: Joint-most perfect hits (10), excellent when "locked in", strong PCT performance Weaknesses: Bold calls that backfire spectacularly, inconsistent across tiers Signature moment: 5 perfect hits in CT alone — the most in any single tier by any predictor
Verdict:The most talented predictor in the field. His ceiling is the highest of anyone — but so is his floor.
No predictor had a more dramatic arc than kandesbunzler26. Two consecutive 6th-place finishes in PCT and PT painted him as a mid-table also-ran — someone who could nail the easy calls but crumbled in the middle of the table. Then came the CT, and everything changed.
His CT victory — 30 total distance, 13/16 within 2 places, an 81% close-call rate — was the single most dominant tier performance relative to the field. He didn't just win; he won with a style completely different from his earlier attempts. In PCT and PT, his sheets were characterised by extreme perfect hits paired with catastrophic misses (Bolt at 20th in PCT, Rabobank at 16th in PT). In CT, he abandoned the bold calls entirely and just... got everything roughly right. It was a total tactical reinvention.
Across all three tiers, kandesbunzler26 has 10 perfect hits — tied with JPH for the most. But the distribution tells a story: 5 in PCT (Assa Abloy, Specialized, Spark, Colombini, DeNA), 4 in PT (Evonik, Grieg, Lierse, Jura), and just 1 in CT (Euskotren). He went from sharpshooter to all-rounder, and it paid off.
Strengths: Joint-most perfect hits (10), CT dominance, lethal at predicting bottom-table teams Weaknesses: PCT and PT performances dragged down his combined total significantly Signature moment: The CT redemption — from two 6th-place finishes to champion with just 30 total distance
Verdict:The best story of the season. Proved that a predictor can reinvent their approach and turn everything around.
5th OVERALL — Community / Cunego (Combined: 242 | Avg: 3.90 per team) Tier placements: 5th, 7th, 5th
The wisdom of the crowd... has limits.
The Community prediction — the collective effort compiled by Cunego — is a fascinating case study in crowd wisdom. Across all three tiers, Community had the most close predictions of any predictor: 33 out of 62 teams (53%) were within 2 places of reality — tied with Ulrich and kandesbunzler26. The crowd was also remarkably consistent — a median distance of just 1.0 in CT, 3.0 in PCT.
But the Community also had the worst individual-tier finish of any predictor: dead last (7th) in PT. And its overall 5th place reveals the fundamental limitation of crowd wisdom: when the consensus is wrong, there's no individual insight to correct it. The crowd's biggest misses — Aker at 2nd in PT (actual 12th), Glanbia at 4th in CT (actual 13th), Bolt at 17th in PCT (actual 4th) — were all cases where the collective doubled down on a bad assumption.
Interestingly, the Community beat AbhishekLFC in two of three tiers but lost to every other individual predictor in overall total. The crowd is a safe floor — it rarely finishes last — but it can't match the best individual instincts.
Strengths: Tied-most close predictions overall (33/62), very low median distances, safe floor Weaknesses: No tier wins, consensus errors are unrecoverable, last place in PT Signature moment: 12 of 16 CT predictions within 2 places — but Glanbia at 4th (actual 13th) cost the win
Verdict:The crowd is good at avoiding disasters but can't produce brilliance. A reliable 5th-place finisher — never terrible, never great.
AbhishekLFC finishes last overall, and the gap is significant: 280 is 38 points behind 5th-place Community and a full 90 behind champion Ulrich. His average distance of 4.52 per team is nearly 1.5 places worse than Ulrich's 3.06. Across three tiers, AbhishekLFC finished last twice (PCT and CT) and 5th once (PT).
But here's the thing about AbhishekLFC: he was often the closest to the season's biggest shocks. He had Ekoi - Le Creuset at 3rd in PCT (actual 1st, off by just 2) — the next closest was 11th. He had ELCO at 6th in PT (actual 7th, off by 1) when others had them much lower. He had The ONE at 14th in CT (perfect). His instincts for individual teams could be genuinely brilliant.
The problem was always the same: for every brilliant contrarian call, there were two or three catastrophic ones. Assa Abloy at 22nd in PCT (actual 5th, off by 17). Ethiopian Airlines at 13th in CT (actual 2nd, off by 11). Polar at 3rd in PT (actual 14th, off by 11). His sheet consistently had the widest variance — the highest highs and the lowest lows. In a game that rewards consistency, that's a losing formula.
He had the fewest close predictions of any full-tier predictor: just 24 out of 62 (39%). Compare that to Community's 33 (53%) or Ulrich's 33 (53%). AbhishekLFC was simply wrong by large margins too often.
Strengths: Occasionally brilliant contrarian calls, closest to several major shocks Weaknesses: Largest individual misses across all tiers, fewest close predictions, highest variance Signature moment: Ekoi - Le Creuset at 3rd in PCT — the closest anyone came to the season's biggest shock
Verdict:The most entertaining predictor to analyse, but entertainment doesn't win trophies. Needs to temper the bold calls with safer reads.
Knockout only competed in two tiers but was arguably the best per-tier performer of anyone. PCT champion (92), PT runner-up (70) — that's a 1st and a 2nd. His average of 3.52 per team would place him tied with JPH if he'd done all three, but the missing CT means we can't fully compare. What we can say: in the tiers he competed in, Knockout was outstanding. His 14/22 close predictions in PT (64%) is the highest single-tier close-call rate outside of kandesbunzler26's CT dominance. If he'd competed in CT with similar form, he'd likely have challenged Ulrich for the overall crown.
Laurens147 only competed in PCT and finished 7th of 8. His average of 5.50 per team is the highest of any predictor in any tier. The Simba Cement call at 7th (actual 22nd, off by 15) and Bolt at 21st (actual 4th, off by 17) were the biggest individual misses. He had some sharp isolated calls — Tryg - Eni perfectly at 13th, Spark at 16th — but not enough to offset the damage.
The "Mr. Consistent" Award — Ulrich Ulriksen
Never finished outside the top 4. Lowest combined total. Lowest average distance per team. The most boringly excellent predictor in the field. If prediction were a sport, Ulrich would be the defensive midfielder who never makes the highlight reel but wins every match.
The "Sharpshooter" Award — JPH & kandesbunzler26 (tied)
10 perfect hits each across all tiers. JPH's were spread across the table; kandesbunzler26's were clustered at the extremes. Different styles, same result: nobody else came close.
The "Most Improved" Award — kandesbunzler26
6th, 6th, 1st. The only predictor whose trajectory went meaningfully upward across the three tiers. His CT performance was a tactical masterclass that redeemed two disappointing earlier results.
The "Always on the Podium" Award — Heine
3rd, 3rd, 4th. Never higher than 3rd, never lower than 4th. The most predictable predictor — in the best possible way. You always know where Heine will finish: right near the top, but not quite at the summit.
The "Boom or Bust" Award — AbhishekLFC
The widest variance of any predictor. Closest to the PCT's biggest shock (Ekoi at 3rd), but also responsible for the CT's biggest miss (Ethiopian at 13th). His predictions were never boring — they were just often wrong.
The "Safe Pair of Hands" Award — Community (Cunego)
Tied-most close predictions overall (33/62). The crowd rarely embarrassed itself — but it also rarely excelled. The Community prediction is the benchmark against which individual predictors should measure themselves: if you can't beat the crowd, you're not adding value.
The "What If" Award — Knockout
1st in PCT, 2nd in PT. If Knockout had competed in CT, where would he have finished? His PCT and PT averages suggest he'd have been right in the mix for the CT crown. The missing third tier is the biggest "what if" of the entire prediction season.
Congratulations to Ulrich Ulriksen — the overall champion of the prediction season. In a game where everyone chases perfect hits and bold calls, Ulrich proved that the real secret is simply being wrong by less than everyone else, every single time.
And to everyone who participated: thank you. Whether you finished 1st or last, you put your predictions on the line and made this season infinitely more fun. Predicting cycling standings is hard. Doing it across three tiers is harder. And doing it while the rest of us pick apart your every mistake? That takes guts.
Thats on me! But what screams lazy more than getting AI to do all the work?
But i guess youre all welcome that i could give you this kind of result you didnt have think twice about 
