|
2025 Lazy Predictions
|
| Caspi |
Posted on 19-09-2025 13:23
|
Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 929
Joined: 22-09-2022
PCM$: 17900.00
|
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
General thoughts: There is an incredible depth in most terrains: 16 80+ climbers, 15 80+ sprinters and 11 80+ puncheurs. This will make it hard for any team to dominate and it’s gonna be a closer than ever division with many teams being disappointed that their assumed top-level leaders won’t even top 10 in quite some races.
It's going to be carnage in PCT this season!
Laurens147 wrote:
PCT
6. DK Zalgiris
7. Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
8. Trans Looney Tunes
While I would love to see us in 7th, I just can't see it happen at all 
|
| |
|
|
| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 19-09-2025 19:34
|
Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2172
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 400.00
|
Thanks to Abhi for the layout I recklessly copied here.
A bit late to the party, but I decided to have a look at how good my predictions were last season (I didn’t do one for the PCT back then), so all of you can be assured they are highly accurate / mostly random, whichever interpretation lets you sleep better 
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference | | Newton Foundation p/b Zwift | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 2 | 2 | 0 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 10 | 3 | 7 | | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | 3 | 4 | 1 | | Duvel-Tsingtao | 15 | 5 | 10 | | Team Würth MODYF | 4 | 6 | 2 | | Genii Hyundai N Cycling | 11 | 7 | 4 | | Spark Team NZ | 7 | 8 | 1 | | Glanbia | 8 | 9 | 1 | | Ethiopian Airlines | 9 | 10 | 1 | | SEE Turtles | 5 | 11 | 6 | | Euskadi-Murias | 12 | 12 | 0 | | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 16 | 13 | 3 | | Cervelo Test Team | 6 | 14 | 8 | | Zain - Omantel | 13 | 15 | 2 | | Babymetal | 17 | 16 | 1 | | Hilcona Racing Team | 14 | 17 | 3 | | Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo | 18 | 18 | 0 | | Average Difference | | | 2.78 |
In short I mostly either got the team pretty much spot on (half the division was within 1 spot of my prediction) or way off (more than 5 places wrong on 4 teams).
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference | | Gazelle | 13 | 1 | 12 | | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 2 | 2 | 0 | | King Power | 1 | 3 | 2 | | Polar | 12 | 4 | 8 | | Evonik - ELKO | 3 | 5 | 2 | | Aker - MOT | 16 | 6 | 10 | | Xero Racing | 9 | 7 | 2 | | Team Puma - SAP | 8 | 8 | 0 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 11 | 9 | 2 | | Fastned | 6 | 10 | 4 | | cycleYorkshire | 17 | 11 | 6 | | EA Vesuvio | 7 | 12 | 5 | | Jura GIANTS | 20 | 13 | 7 | | Grieg-Maersk | 4 | 14 | 10 | | Rabobank | 18 | 15 | 3 | | Cedevita | 14 | 16 | 2 | | Oxxo - Frisby | 5 | 17 | 12 | | Moser - Sygic | 21 | 18 | 3 | | MOL Cycling Team | 10 | 19 | 9 | | ZARA - Irizar | 15 | 20 | 5 | | Lidl Cycling | 22 | 21 | 1 | | Assa Abloy | 19 | 22 | 3 | | Average Difference | | | 4.91 |
This one was way worse than the CT one (no surprise to me, I feel much more confident in the lower divisions): only 3 teams were predicted within one spot of their actual position, but 10 teams were at least 5 spots off. That’s pretty much the reversed proportion as in the CT.
|
| |
|
|
| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 21-09-2025 14:44
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6262
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
I disagree with some things kb:
1. 9th is pretty sympathetic to us
2. I rate the US PCT teams and Bolt a tad higher
3. This is pretty much now a lazy effort
@Laurens:
I think your accessment is close to mine, but I think you're the only one not placing MOL at the top so I'm not sure I'm trusting you 
|
| |
|
|
| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-09-2025 15:11
|
Team Manager
Posts: 6575
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1290.00
|
I want to revive something that I did two years ago: pair rank community predictions. The concept is pretty simple: You choose between two random teams paired against each other regarding who you think will finish higher in the final 2025 rankings. You'll get 20 pairs for PT and PCT and 15 for CT. And as more people participate and more teams get paired against each other, each team will have a win rate that will determine the final prediction rankings.
CT Survey
PCT Survey
PT Survey
You can of course participate multiple times to get more pairs, but of course it's better the more different people participate, to get more perspectives and viewpoints.
|
| |
|
|
| seancoll |
Posted on 22-09-2025 01:24
|
Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 910
Joined: 20-12-2022
PCM$: 500.00
|
Very much enjoyed doing a set or two of these head-to-heads! Thansk Cunego for setting them up again!
|
| |
|
|
| cunego59 |
Posted on 28-09-2025 08:03
|
Team Manager
Posts: 6575
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1290.00
|
cunego59 wrote:
I want to revive something that I did two years ago: pair rank community predictions. The concept is pretty simple: You choose between two random teams paired against each other regarding who you think will finish higher in the final 2025 rankings. You'll get 20 pairs for PT and PCT and 15 for CT. And as more people participate and more teams get paired against each other, each team will have a win rate that will determine the final prediction rankings.
CT Survey
PCT Survey
PT Survey
You can of course participate multiple times to get more pairs, but of course it's better the more different people participate, to get more perspectives and viewpoints.
Just wanted to give this a quick bump, there are currently around 10 participants per division and a few more would be neat
|
| |
|
|
| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 28-09-2025 16:02
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 17895
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
|
"more-dimensional" is a nice description. That low-promotion battle position is realistic. We're certainly a team that has zigged (cobbles, two-terrain riders) compared to most. And then you said it comes down the planning .... ahhh shit.... I'm crap at that...
|
| |
|
|
| knockout |
Posted on 28-09-2025 22:06
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8459
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
|
Very quick and lazy PCT prediction. I see a clear top 3 that should all promote and will fight for the division title.
I went with Assa Abloy as my pick for the top team becuase i really like all three of Dainese, Wisniowski and Gesbert and think they have some excellent depth behind them including abdul halil and johannesen who are solid leaders themselves.
ZARA just looks like one of the classic dominant PCT teams that scores everywhere and is full of riders that are better in PCT than PT - they have done similar before and other teams like Farfetch have done so very succesful in the past.
For MOL i'm not convinced enough that Almeida (hi/tt/...) and Ardila (energy stats) will be dominant enough to counter a possible lack of depth scoring. Still, a super strong team that should easily promote and i fully understand why most others have them as the title favourite.
After that it is almost impossible to predict as the whole division is super close together. Only DeNA is an obvious last place.
Almost didnt post this because that large group from 4th down to the relegation spots looks closer together than ive seen in any other year and feel super unsure about this. Feels like I was randomly pulling names out of a hat at times so really wouldnt surprise me if one of the teams i put in the relegation spots enters the promotion fight or a predicted top 10 team relegates.
1. Assa Abloy
2. ZARA - Irizar
3. MOL Cycling Team
4. DK Zalgiris
5. JEWA TIROL
6. Specialized
7. Minions
8. Bolt - Eesti
9. McCormick Pro Cycling
10. Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
11. Trans Looney Tunes
12. Zwift - Newton Foundation
13. Ekoi - Le Creuset
14. Everesting
15. Duvel-Tsingtao
16. Bralirwa - Cegeka
17. Tryg - Eni
18. Lotto-Caloi
19. Spark Team NZ
20. Sauber Petronas Racing
21. Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
22. IESE ProCycling Team
23. Colombini Kometa
24. DeNA RoadStars
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
| |
|
|
| cunego59 |
Posted on 07-10-2025 13:40
|
Team Manager
Posts: 6575
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1290.00
|
cunego59 wrote:
I want to revive something that I did two years ago: pair rank community predictions. The concept is pretty simple: You choose between two random teams paired against each other regarding who you think will finish higher in the final 2025 rankings. You'll get 20 pairs for PT and PCT and 15 for CT. And as more people participate and more teams get paired against each other, each team will have a win rate that will determine the final prediction rankings.
CT Survey
PCT Survey
PT Survey
You can of course participate multiple times to get more pairs, but of course it's better the more different people participate, to get more perspectives and viewpoints.
Here are the results from the polls. As a reminder, each team was randomly paired against other teams and participants had to choose which team was more likely to finish higher in the final standings. These rankings are based on win percentage.
For CT, we had 23 participants for a total of 345 duels, meaning each team was on average presented around 43 times.
| Team | Win% | | 1st | Peugeot - Bancolombia | 92 | | 2nd | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 89 | | 3rd | Bianchi Enel | 75 | | 4th | Glanbia | 64 | | 5th | SEE Turtles | 64 | | 6th | Podium Ambition | 61 | | 7th | Ethiopian Airlines | 55 | | 8th | Euskadi-Murias | 54 | | 9th | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 53 | | 10th | IncaLine Pro Cycling | 50 | | 11th | Tafjord Kraft | 43 | | 12th | Parmalat - Ecopetrol | 31 | | 13th | Team Zappes Kölsch | 27 | | 14th | THE ONE - Fox God | 21 | | 15th | Air New Zealand-Prada | 21 | | 16th | Kone-Nordea | 20 |
For PCT, there were 17 participants for a total of 340 duels, meaning each team was presented on average 28 times:
| Team | Win% | | 1st | Hunter Valley Cycling | 92 | | 2nd | MOL Cycling Team | 91 | | 3rd | Assa Abloy | 76 | | 4th | Specialized | 76 | | 5th | Zwift - Newton Foundation | 66 | | 6th | DK Zalgiris | 66 | | 7th | McCormick Pro Cycling | 62 | | 8th | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 57 | | 9th | Minions | 55 | | 10th | Everesting | 52 | | 11th | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 50 | | 12th | Trans Looney Tunes | 46 | | 13th | JEWA TIROL | 45 | | 14th | Tryg - Eni | 45 | | 15th | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | 42 | | 16th | Bralirwa - Cegeka | 41 | | 17th | Bolt - Eesti | 37 | | 18th | Spark Team NZ | 32 | | 19th | Colombini Kometa | 29 | | 20th | Sauber Petronas Racing | 29 | | 21st | Lotto-Caloi | 28 | | 22nd | Duvel-Tsingtao | 23 | | 23rd | IESE ProCycling Team | 16 | | 24th | DeNA Roadstars | 0 |
For PT, there were 15 participants for a total of 300 duels, meaning each team was presented on average 27 times:
| Team | Win% | | 1st | Evonik - ELKO | 100 | | 2nd | Aker - MOT | 93 | | 3rd | Team Puma - SAP | 79 | | 4th | King Power | 79 | | 5th | Xero Racing | 71 | | 6th | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 63 | | 7th | Cedevita | 62 | | 8th | EA Vesuvio | 62 | | 9th | Gazelle | 59 | | 10th | Indosat Ooredoo | 57 | | 11th | Polar | 57 | | 12th | cycleYorkshire | 51 | | 13th | ELCO - ABEA | 50 | | 14th | Team UBS | 47 | | 15th | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 36 | | 16th | Sony - Force India | 32 | | 17th | Rabobank | 31 | | 18th | Fastned | 22 | | 19th | Grieg-Maersk | 21 | | 20th | Jura GIANTS | 18 | | 21st | Los Pollos Hermanos | 16 | | 22nd | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 7 |
|
| |
|
|
| Heine |
Posted on 07-10-2025 17:37
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4739
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
I can live with 92%
|
| |
|
|
| knockout |
Posted on 07-10-2025 22:52
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8459
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
|
100% 
Thanks for doing this again cunego
Some interesting placements here. Zwift in PCT promotion spots is interesting for me as is EA that low in PT. But overall, pretty good ones despite a somewhat limited sample size
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
| |
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 21-05-2026 16:54
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 08-10-2025 07:52
|
Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2172
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 400.00
|
Thanks for putting this together, cungeo!
What could say "mid-table finish" more than 11th place with exactly 50%?
|
| |
|
|
| Heine |
Posted on 08-10-2025 07:55
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4739
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
And DeNa at 0% 
|
| |
|
|
| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-05-2026 10:17
|
Team Manager
Posts: 6575
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1290.00
|
So, originally I just wanted to look back on the community predictions and see how we did. I started to compare it to other predictions, and then figured I'll just do a complete overview, so here is how all predictions (from this thread and from individual threads) did. Starting with CT:
Overall, CT had the best predictions (makes sense given the smaller division, I think). kandesbunzler takes the top spot, 13 out of 16 teams were predicted correctly within 2 places in the final rankings. Ulrich's projections were also very good, as was the community prediction, which saw the average dragged down by vastly overestimating Glanbia. jph got the most teams exactly right (5).
Looking at individual teams, Ethiopean Airlines was the team that predictions got wrong the most. They were vastly underestimated for the most part, especially by Abhishek's Statistical Analysis, with only Heine having them in their Top 4. Glanbia was overrated heavily twice, which brought their average error up, but they were relatively accurately placed by the other four previews, as were most teams in general. Four of the five Top 5 and four of the five Bottom 5, if ranked by average predicted rank, were correct, even if not always in the same order.
PCT had the highest average error margins (again makes sense as the division with the most teams). knockout had the best guesses here, with 20 out of the 24 teams placed within 5 places of their eventual rank.
There are a few teams that stand out as over- and underestimations. Ekoi - Le Creuset is an obvious one, they were a clear mid-table pick and ended up winning the division (notably, Abhishek's Statistical Analysis, which overall didn't do too well, was the only prediction that came close, placing them in 2nd). But that wasn't even the furthest deviation.
The two teams that outperformed their predictions the most were Lotto - Caloi (8th compared to an average prediction of 18.3) and Bolt - Eesti (4th compared to 14.4). The latter were even placed 17th or worse in four of the eight predictions, but shoutout to jph, who put them in 3rd in their prediction.
The biggest underperformer are JEWA TIROL. While they were placed as low as 15th, no one had them as a relegation candidate, and knockout even had them in 5th place. Minions and Gjensidige were two fairly consistent underperformers, but less consequential as they still ended up mid-table, while Zwift and Simba Cement have a high deviation on average, but were still placed correctly by at least some of the predictions - just particularly overrated by others.
On the other hand, MOL (3rd with predictions ranging from 1st to 3rd) and Specialized (6th with predictions always between 4th and 6th) were spot on by basically everyone, as were the preseason consensus bottom three of Colombini, IESE and DeNA.
PT had the most precise single team pick of them all, as literally everyone predicted Evonik to win the division, as they ultimately did. knockout themselves again had a very strong prediction, but the crown goes to Ulrich's Projections, which were incredibly accurate this year. Just a single team out of the 22 was off by more than 4 places - Rabobank, by far the biggest miss among these PT predictions (finished 3rd compared to an average prediction of 12.7).
Carlsberg was the second main overperformer (5th compared to predicted 12th), and ELCO also did better than most (but not all) expected. On the other end, Aker - MOT and Polar were the biggest underperformers compared to expectations.
Notably, the community prediction was actually the worst one of the seven. Being the highest (and thus most wrong) on the likes of Aker - MOT, Puma and defending champs Gazelle, it's possible that participants at least partly went more by name recognition rather than an in-depth look at the actual squads.
It might also be notable that the statistical/stats-based approaches by Ulrich and Abhi last year were much better in PCT than in PT, while this year that was flipped. Very simplistically, this could mean that results followed stats closer in the top flight, which I think matches the eye test as well. But the changes from season to season also show that nothing is "solved" and there are always different ways to be successful. We'll see which way that will be next year
|
| |
|
|
| Heine |
Posted on 21-05-2026 10:35
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4739
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Great read Cunego I made Copilot do the same stuff for me, will post it in its own thread as it is a wall of text
|
| |
|
|
| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 21-05-2026 11:00
|
Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2172
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 400.00
|
Thanks for the effort cunego!
How convenient I also had prepared something
|
| |
|
|
| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 21-05-2026 11:00
|
Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2172
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 400.00
|
Thanks to Abhi for the layout I recklessly copied here.
I didn’t want to wait until the next predictions are out (again) to have a look at how good I did this season.
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference | | Binachi Enel | 3 | 1 | 2 | | Ethiopian Airlines | 7 | 2 | 5 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 1 | 3 | 2 | | Peugeot - Bancolombia | 2 | 4 | 2 | | Podium Ambition | 4 | 5 | 1 | | SEE Turtles | 5 | 6 | 1 | | Euskadi-Murias | 6 | 7 | 1 | | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 8 | 8 | 0 | | IncaLine Pro Cycling | 11 | 9 | 2 | | Tafjord Kraft | 9 | 10 | 1 | | Parmalat - Ecopetrol | 13 | 11 | 2 | | Kone-Nordea | 16 | 12 | 4 | | Glanbia | 10 | 13 | 3 | | The ONE – Fox God | 12 | 14 | 2 | | Team Zappes Kölsch | 14 | 15 | 1 | | Air New Zealand-Prada | 15 | 16 | 1 | | Average Difference | | | 1.88 |
The first (and probably most important) thing standing out is there is no major outlier in the prediction as everyone finished within 5 places of where I predicted them. Actually I was more than 2 places off for only three teams. With only one exact prediction this means the average difference of just under two paints a pretty accurate picture of how accurate I was.
 
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference | | Ekoi – Le Creuset | 13 | 1 | 12 | | DK Zalgiris | 4 | 2 | 2 | | MOL Cycling Team | 1 | 3 | 2 | | Bolt - Eesti | 20 | 4 | 16 | | Assa Abloy | 5 | 5 | 0 | | Specialized | 6 | 6 | 0 | | Hunter Valley Cycling | 2 | 7 | 3 | | Lotto-Caloi | 17 | 8 | 9 | | McCormick Pro Cycling | 18 | 9 | 9 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 11 | 10 | 1 | | Bralirwa - Cegeka | 12 | 11 | 1 | | Everesting | 9 | 12 | 3 | | Tryg - Eni | 10 | 13 | 3 | | Minions | 3 | 14 | 11 | | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 7 | 15 | 8 | | Spark Team NZ | 16 | 16 | 0 | | Zwift – Newton Foundation | 19 | 17 | 2 | | Duvel-Tsingtao | 23 | 18 | 5 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | 15 | 19 | 4 | | JEWA Tirol | 8 | 20 | 12 | | Colombini Kometa | 21 | 21 | 0 | | Simba Cement – Tanga Fresh | 14 | 22 | 8 | | IESE ProCycling Team | | 22 | 23 | 1 | | DeNA Roadstars | | 24 | 24 | 0 | | Average Difference | | | 4.67 |
I found it hard to predict the range from 6th to 20th and I was quite right there. While 5 of the 7 promoting teams and three of the five relegating teams were predicted correctly those I didn’t get right were really, really wrong. Most of all I thought Bolt in relegation danger (sorry, jph!) and JEWA as a promotion contender. Minions finished way below my prediction too, but at least in midfield, while I also underestimated the division winner by a mile (but I can live with this particular failure).
On the other hand I got 5 teams exactly right with 6 more within 2 spots of the prediction. Overall I’ve been nearly 5 places wrong in average which isn’t that good at all.
 
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference | | Evonik - ELKO | 1 | 1 | 0 | | EA Vesuvio | 3 | 2 | 1 | | Rabobank | 16 | 3 | 13 | | King Power | 2 | 4 | 2 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 13 | 5 | 8 | | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 8 | 6 | 2 | | ELCO - ABEA | 15 | 7 | 8 | | Team Puma - SAP | 10 | 8 | 2 | | Indosat - Ooredoo | 6 | 9 | 3 | | Xero Racing | 5 | 10 | 5 | | Fastned | 18 | 11 | 7 | | Aker - MOT | 4 | 12 | 8 | | cycleYorkshire | 17 | 13 | 4 | | Polar | 7 | 14 | 7 | | Cedevita | 11 | 15 | 4 | | Gazelle | 12 | 16 | 4 | | Los Pollos Hermanos | 19 | 17 | 2 | | Sony – Force India | 14 | 18 | 4 | | Team UBS | 9 | 19 | 10 | | Grieg-Maersk | 20 | 20 | 0 | | Lierse SK – Pizza Ullo Pro Cycling | 21 | 21 | 0 | | Jura GIANTS | 22 | 22 | 0 | | Average Difference | | | 4.27 |
It’s a similar picture to the PCT prediction here, I was pretty confident at the top and bottom and were mostly accurate there, but the range from 7th to 19th was always a gamble and so I was fairly off there often enough. The big outliers were UBS (as many others already mentioned pre-season) and Rabobank (who were a surprise to many).
|
| |
|
|
| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 21-05-2026 13:44
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16809
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 15538.70
|
Thanks for the recaps! Happy to have overperformed obviously, though all good luck comes back around eventually.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
| |
|
|
| knockout |
Posted on 21-05-2026 15:13
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8459
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
|
Thanks for the prediction overview! Always enjoy these!
Gotta say im a bit surprised that i did better in the pct one than in pt considering i really felt unsure about the PCT one but others probably did as well. My Jewa one hurts but other than that i feel real good about it in hindsight
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
| |
|
