The riders have gathered in Mijas, in Málaga, on the far southern coast of Spain for start of the 2025 Vuelta a Espana. The race’s first edition in its new late season slot on the calendar.
A full preview of the parcours from WJ can be found here
The short version is hills and mountains and mountains, oh my. So we’ll start with one of the neglected groups the sprinters. With just 5 flat rated stages and one of those coming after 20 brutal days and another featuring a nasty climb in the last 5ks it might be tough for the sprinters to even take the points jersey, particularly given one of the names among the GC contenders.
But a few brave souls came to try.
Rider
FL
RS
ST
SP
AC
Philipsen
74
70
74
81
80
Kragh Andersen
76
72
68
80
75
Banaszek
74
73
71
79
81
Minali
73
74
70
79
79
Contreras
72
75
73
78
80
Prasad
74
74
73
78
79
Kulikovskiy
73
73
70
78
79
Afewerki
72
69
76
78
79
Szarka
77
73
72
78
78
Scott
72
71
72
78
78
Philipsen is the outstanding name on this list as Cedevita clearly had some counter-scheduling in mind by sending their #1 sprinter to the race. Philipsen also is solid in the hills and has outstanding recovery so he should be in a good position to survive to stage 21. His lead out isn’t the strongest but he does have cobbles star Siric and some solid roulers in Poljanec and Fedorov to back him up.
The other top name is Tinkoff’s Banaszek who won stage 21 of this race back in 2022. He also won two stages of the Tour de France last year, holding the Green Jersey most of the race only to lose it Kaden Groves on the Champs. In this race Tinkoff are clearly more interested in a run at the team’s jersey than the points jersey as they have lots of climbers but nobody approximating a lead out man.
Kragh Andersen would have been a top name a few years ago and the rest of the field look like the favorites list from the flat stage of Tachira. Although that might be unkind to Prasad who has 3 stage wins in this race and pulled off a surprising green jersey win in 2023, he is back with Aker where he scored that big win. Aker have shown some faith in him by sending Sarreau as a leadout. We may also see Valter being used in that role.
The second neglected skill set in this race is time trialing. Just one 10k flat(ish) test. Top contenders for that include:
Rider
FL
TT
PR
RC
Ocampo
70
80
78
75
Mano
71
80
77
74
Oliveira
70
79
79
67
Tanfield
73
79
79
71
Pelikan
75
78
77
70
Munton
67
78
77
76
Kiriakidis
68
78
76
74
Geoghegan Hart
70
78
76
75
Ioannidis
67
78
76
73
Onodera
74
78
75
71
Matsuda
76
77
79
67
Plapp
72
77
78
76
De Bod
73
77
77
71
Marryatt
71
77
77
67
Heidemann
72
77
75
71
Many of these guys are also strong prologue riders which could be important. Given their TT depth King Power and EA Vesuvio clearly felt they could spend some resources on this stage. The biggest GC name on this list is Geoghegan Hart but Plapp should also be competitive in the overall. There are also a few riders who aren’t as strong in the longer TTs but who could thrive here, most notably some guy called Herklotz.
Having dealt with the side shows we move on to the main event, the GC contender.
Rider
MT
MM
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Herklotz
84
83
81
79
80
78
76
Herklotz is the overwhelming favorite. A win would be his 3rd in the Vuelta (with ‘23 and ‘18), giving him the most by any rider. If he has a weakness, it is in his team which features five solid climbers in Zimmermann, Schiffer, Schinnagel, Egger, and Stork but no super-domestiques. Although Puma will be proud of the fact Herklotz is backed by an entirely German team (Also of note ELCO fields 7 of 8 riders from Greece with the 8th a Cypriot and Tinkoff have 6 of 8 from Russia).
The next set of riders will likely be competing for the scraps left by Herklotz and the good news for the neutral is the battle for the two podium spots seems wide open.
Rider
MT
MM
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Herklotz
84
83
81
79
80
78
76
Dombrowski
82
78
73
77
75
75
72
Areruya
81
81
81
76
78
79
76
Godoy
81
79
76
75
76
77
75
Latour
81
78
75
80
78
80
74
Carthy
81
78
75
77
76
78
69
Aular
81
77
72
76
75
77
69
Wellens
80
77
73
76
77
73
65
Giannoutsos
80
76
72
76
78
75
68
Champoussin
79
79
79
76
76
77
76
Schlegel
79
78
77
71
74
76
75
Plapp
79
78
76
74
78
76
68
Geoghegan Hart
79
77
74
76
74
75
69
The biggest names on this list are 2022 winner (and 3rd last year) Dombrowski and Rwandan superstar Areruya. Dombrowski will be under pressure to pull his team clear of relegation and while he is the second best climber in the race his weaker medium mountain and recovery could be a handicap. Dombrowski does bring two really strong support riders in Carboni and Warchol, they could be asked to control the race or they might be the ones causing chaos.
Areruya is a complete rider. It is a testament to how strong the favorite is that the Rwandan is better in only one stat (Recovery 79 vs 78). Normally Areruya would be the favorite in all the punchy finishes but in this race he will be fighting Herklotz for every one. If only one of them were here they might be the Green jersey favorite but they could end up splitting those points. Areruya has two nice lieutenants in Fouche and longtime Evonik domestique Blums.
Latour is probably the other top contender for the podium with his strong recovery. If the hilly stages prove selective Champoussin could be competitive or he could be really dangerous from the breakaways.
There are a handful of other riders who aren’t quite as strong in the mountains but could contest the hilly finishes and/or put together a KOM challenge and/or breakaway fueled GC challenge. They include:
Rider
MT
MM
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
McCarthy
66
74
81
79
74
68
73
Valter
78
79
80
76
75
74
78
Aranburu
77
79
80
70
79
74
71
Buchmann
75
78
80
71
72
72
71
McCarthy is probably focused on the early punchy climbs. The other 3 have the skills to pursue any number of paths although Aranburu might have responsibilities to his leader, Carthy.
On top of those there are numerous other strong climbers in the race who will be looking for the breaks, names we will expect to see (that haven’t already been mentioned) include:
Rider
MT
MM
HI
ST
RS
RC
AC
Leemreize
79
78
76
70
74
74
72
Lopez Nolasco
79
75
71
72
71
75
70
Mas
78
78
77
74
74
77
77
Frankiny
78
77
76
72
75
77
75
Lopez
78
77
76
71
72
75
78
Roson
78
77
76
67
70
77
74
Chaiyasombat
78
76
74
71
75
75
74
Eenkhoorn
78
76
73
76
77
80
71
Rodriguez
78
75
72
73
74
75
71
Gregaard
78
75
71
78
75
75
70
Vingegaard
78
74
70
76
77
77
66
De Plus
77
78
79
74
73
71
72
A full starlist of 192 riders take on the race, Spark and DeNA represent the PCT.
First GT and really excited to see how we go! Really only here for the experience but keen to see how Carlos can go GC or U25 rankings wise. Same with Afewerki. If he can make it to the end he could even bag some nice results in the sprints!
Thanks for the great preview and good luck everyone!
For us, the goal is a GC top 10. That's by far our primary concern, as it's our GT goal. If we can get it, we have 3/5 goals passed with another near miss this year. If we miss it, it's 2/5 goals, and suddenly it's looking like it's gonna be harder to train Skjelmose than we hoped.
The route obviously couldn't be any better for Carthy, given the complete lack of TT km's and hard mountain stages. We've also pretty much brought our A-squad for the mountains here outside Skjelmose, with both Aranburu and Gregaard on hand to protect him. The issue, of course, is the competition. Every climber who can't time trial circled this race on their calendar, and it's unclear how Carthy will compete. Especially with the top puncheurs here too, it seems like Carthy could end up anywhere from 5-15th relatively easily, especially considering that some breakaway guys will end up in the top 10 over him. We just need him to get 10th, which we couldn't in the Giro.
The side plot for us in this race will be AKA. He still has Philly after this, but in a lot of ways it's something of a last hurrah for him. He's as bad of a climber as he's always been, so the chances of making it to the end to contest the final in Madrid or the green jersey are pretty low. The goal for him is a stage win to remember him for. He can finish outside the top 50 every other flat stage if he gets that.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Also our first GT ever and probably the last for a couple seasons also All I can hope for is to be part of some breakaways and letting our colors shine there. Besides from that looking at the team we have there its solely for our young riders to get experience for their future development.
Overall we seam to have a clear favorite in it. Good Luck to everyone and thanks for the preview and the upcomming reports!
Vuelta a Espana 
All I can hope for is to be part of some breakaways and letting our colors shine there. Besides from that looking at the team we have there its solely for our young riders to get experience for their future development.
