The 2025 Tour of California is the 18th edition of the race. The route is the same as last year. Two time trials (4.6k and 15.7k) bracket the race. In between riders face two moderately hard hilly stages (3 and 4), a mountain stage (6) and two sprints. So a little something for everyone, which makes for a long preview.
As one of the marquee races on the US calendar it has always attracted strong US riders and 8 of the 17 winners have hailed from the US (Phinney x4, Zabriskie x2, Eastman and Warbasse). Only 4 editions have not had a US rider in the top 10 although one of those was last year (along with 2008, 2017, and 2018).
This year the race drops from HC to C1 while last year’s winner Oomen has bumped up to the PT, so no repeat victory for him. Instead, Matteo Jorgenson, the second-best US GC rider of his generation, fresh off 2nd place in the Tour of America*, takes a shot at adding his name to the honor roll. But he faces some stiff competition including another top name from the US peloton - Powless.
While those two make it likely the US won’t miss out on the top 10 again there are quite a few riders who could stop them from winning and with the field including everything from time trial intensive riders like Powless to balanced climbers like Padun, how the different stages play out will become important.
Padun is the best pure climber, Powless the best TTer and Jorgenson probably has the best all around skill set. Meintjes, riding for CT outfit Glanbia, is a strong all-round climber with a solid TT. Rodrigues, Reis, and Shikai are all strong climbers with solid TT skills, although none of the three is that strong in the hills. While Lasinis, Cras, Faglum Karlsson, and Choi bring a similar but slightly weaker skill sets as that trio. Although Cras and Faglum Karlsson have some of the best energy stats among the favorites and the Swede is the best prologue rider among those mentioned.
Rider
FL
MT
MM
HI
ST
RS
TT
PR
Powless
72
78
75
72
76
74
80
78
Jorgenson
73
79
78
77
79
78
76
75
Rodrigues
66
81
77
73
73
75
74
74
Reis
69
80
76
72
77
75
75
75
Shikai
71
80
75
70
73
75
75
75
Lasinis
69
79
76
72
73
72
74
74
Cras
68
79
76
72
78
77
73
70
Faglum Karlsson
71
79
76
73
78
75
73
79
Choi
69
79
76
72
74
73
73
72
Padun
67
82
80
77
72
74
66
65
Meintjes
70
79
78
77
76
75
70
70
The riders above should dominate the mountain stage but the hilly stages may see some of the punchier riders take center stage. Riders focusing on those two stages include (list excludes Padun and Jorgenson as they are above):
Rider
FL
MM
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
Cerny
71
73
76
75
67
75
79
Mayer
68
73
77
65
72
72
77
Serrano
69
75
77
73
75
68
77
Svab
70
74
76
70
72
67
78
Stocek
71
73
78
75
70
70
75
Meurisse
72
75
76
72
72
70
76
Rojas
68
73
76
76
71
67
76
Ludvigsson
67
70
76
74
70
67
76
Jensen
69
73
78
74
70
64
73
Morales Ortega
66
76
76
71
72
63
75
Vendrame
72
69
76
75
73
71
75
Lilovski
68
72
77
70
70
65
73
Kelderman
68
75
80
77
72
65
69
If the hilly stages come down to a small-group sprint then Cerny has a great skill set. If they ride harder maybe it will favor Stocek or Kelderman (or Padun and Jorgenson).
The other terrain where the GC riders will have company going for the stage in is in the TTs. Kmieliauskas will be the favorite for both TTs although Schomber will hope to threaten him in the opening stage as will Kopfauf who doesn’t quite make this list (also there are the sprinters with strong prologue, more on them below). Other strong TT riders include (Powless excluded):
Rider
FL
TT
PR
Kmieliauskas
74
81
81
Bjerg
75
80
79
Cataford
74
79
79
Howson
70
79
79
Beniusis
71
80
78
Sütterlin
70
79
79
Thomas
73
78
79
Bissegger
74
79
77
Cosnefroy
76
78
78
Milan
77
77
79
Paillot
68
78
78
Vandevelde
75
78
78
Viennet
70
78
78
Schomber
73
74
81
Finally, there are two stages the GC guys will just want to survive, those are the two for the sprinters. We go deep in this list since the sprint field isn’t that strong. Also, on this list is Chavanne who will be interested in Stage 1.
Thijssen is the best sprinter on paper but he doesn’t have anything in the way of a lead out, while his top two rivals, Kalaba and Kennett both have a least one solid rider in their train.
Rider
FL
SP
AC
RS
ST
PR
Thijssen
75
79
81
70
74
60
Kalaba
74
79
79
72
70
78
Kennett
75
79
78
76
73
78
El Sabbahi
77
78
77
76
72
72
Sureda
73
77
79
69
71
61
Silva
75
77
78
70
69
62
Major
74
77
78
70
74
64
Edmondson
73
77
75
71
72
74
Russo
73
76
78
73
73
65
Mudgway
70
76
78
66
71
65
Keough
70
76
74
68
62
77
Cerny
71
75
79
67
75
71
Chavanne
74
75
75
75
70
81
Jiang
72
75
75
73
69
79
Olei
69
75
75
71
73
69
Consonni
72
75
75
76
71
65
24 teams and 190 riders take the start, 11 are from the CT.
Startlist
*The #1 US stage race of his generation lost his TOA by 2 seconds while Jorgenson lost by 6x as much.
 
Hopefully we can grab a stage win. Our goal is 8. We are at 4 so far. It would be very nice to get another, but it would have to be a quite lucky punch.
Full cavalry brought out to play here. I have severe doubts about Inkelaar and Barguil in the GC but with with this layout it's still a solid setup for us if Kennett decides to ride his bike the right way. With the right RDC luck for us there's a world where we have the white jersey after the first stage but it would require quite a bit of luck!
Chavanne the big hope on stage 1, otherwise maybe Vendrame can do something on non-selective hilly stages. After that, we'll be reliant on breakaways to do anything. Still, should be a fun race!
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
Tour of California 
