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2025 Lazy Predictions
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| Caspi |
Posted on 19-09-2025 13:23
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Domestique
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kandesbunzler26 wrote:
General thoughts: There is an incredible depth in most terrains: 16 80+ climbers, 15 80+ sprinters and 11 80+ puncheurs. This will make it hard for any team to dominate and it’s gonna be a closer than ever division with many teams being disappointed that their assumed top-level leaders won’t even top 10 in quite some races.
It's going to be carnage in PCT this season!
Laurens147 wrote:
PCT
6. DK Zalgiris
7. Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
8. Trans Looney Tunes
While I would love to see us in 7th, I just can't see it happen at all 
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 19-09-2025 19:34
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Sprinter
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Thanks to Abhi for the layout I recklessly copied here.
A bit late to the party, but I decided to have a look at how good my predictions were last season (I didn’t do one for the PCT back then), so all of you can be assured they are highly accurate / mostly random, whichever interpretation lets you sleep better 
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference | | Newton Foundation p/b Zwift | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 2 | 2 | 0 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 10 | 3 | 7 | | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | 3 | 4 | 1 | | Duvel-Tsingtao | 15 | 5 | 10 | | Team Würth MODYF | 4 | 6 | 2 | | Genii Hyundai N Cycling | 11 | 7 | 4 | | Spark Team NZ | 7 | 8 | 1 | | Glanbia | 8 | 9 | 1 | | Ethiopian Airlines | 9 | 10 | 1 | | SEE Turtles | 5 | 11 | 6 | | Euskadi-Murias | 12 | 12 | 0 | | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 16 | 13 | 3 | | Cervelo Test Team | 6 | 14 | 8 | | Zain - Omantel | 13 | 15 | 2 | | Babymetal | 17 | 16 | 1 | | Hilcona Racing Team | 14 | 17 | 3 | | Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo | 18 | 18 | 0 | | Average Difference | | | 2.78 |
In short I mostly either got the team pretty much spot on (half the division was within 1 spot of my prediction) or way off (more than 5 places wrong on 4 teams).
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference | | Gazelle | 13 | 1 | 12 | | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 2 | 2 | 0 | | King Power | 1 | 3 | 2 | | Polar | 12 | 4 | 8 | | Evonik - ELKO | 3 | 5 | 2 | | Aker - MOT | 16 | 6 | 10 | | Xero Racing | 9 | 7 | 2 | | Team Puma - SAP | 8 | 8 | 0 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 11 | 9 | 2 | | Fastned | 6 | 10 | 4 | | cycleYorkshire | 17 | 11 | 6 | | EA Vesuvio | 7 | 12 | 5 | | Jura GIANTS | 20 | 13 | 7 | | Grieg-Maersk | 4 | 14 | 10 | | Rabobank | 18 | 15 | 3 | | Cedevita | 14 | 16 | 2 | | Oxxo - Frisby | 5 | 17 | 12 | | Moser - Sygic | 21 | 18 | 3 | | MOL Cycling Team | 10 | 19 | 9 | | ZARA - Irizar | 15 | 20 | 5 | | Lidl Cycling | 22 | 21 | 1 | | Assa Abloy | 19 | 22 | 3 | | Average Difference | | | 4.91 |
This one was way worse than the CT one (no surprise to me, I feel much more confident in the lower divisions): only 3 teams were predicted within one spot of their actual position, but 10 teams were at least 5 spots off. That’s pretty much the reversed proportion as in the CT.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 21-09-2025 14:44
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Team Leader
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I disagree with some things kb:
1. 9th is pretty sympathetic to us
2. I rate the US PCT teams and Bolt a tad higher
3. This is pretty much now a lazy effort
@Laurens:
I think your accessment is close to mine, but I think you're the only one not placing MOL at the top so I'm not sure I'm trusting you 
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-09-2025 15:11
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Team Manager
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I want to revive something that I did two years ago: pair rank community predictions. The concept is pretty simple: You choose between two random teams paired against each other regarding who you think will finish higher in the final 2025 rankings. You'll get 20 pairs for PT and PCT and 15 for CT. And as more people participate and more teams get paired against each other, each team will have a win rate that will determine the final prediction rankings.
CT Survey
PCT Survey
PT Survey
You can of course participate multiple times to get more pairs, but of course it's better the more different people participate, to get more perspectives and viewpoints.
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| seancoll |
Posted on 22-09-2025 01:24
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 763
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Very much enjoyed doing a set or two of these head-to-heads! Thansk Cunego for setting them up again!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 28-09-2025 08:03
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Team Manager
Posts: 6546
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cunego59 wrote:
I want to revive something that I did two years ago: pair rank community predictions. The concept is pretty simple: You choose between two random teams paired against each other regarding who you think will finish higher in the final 2025 rankings. You'll get 20 pairs for PT and PCT and 15 for CT. And as more people participate and more teams get paired against each other, each team will have a win rate that will determine the final prediction rankings.
CT Survey
PCT Survey
PT Survey
You can of course participate multiple times to get more pairs, but of course it's better the more different people participate, to get more perspectives and viewpoints.
Just wanted to give this a quick bump, there are currently around 10 participants per division and a few more would be neat
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 28-09-2025 16:02
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 17833
Joined: 12-05-2012
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"more-dimensional" is a nice description. That low-promotion battle position is realistic. We're certainly a team that has zigged (cobbles, two-terrain riders) compared to most. And then you said it comes down the planning .... ahhh shit.... I'm crap at that...
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| knockout |
Posted on 28-09-2025 22:06
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8233
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Very quick and lazy PCT prediction. I see a clear top 3 that should all promote and will fight for the division title.
I went with Assa Abloy as my pick for the top team becuase i really like all three of Dainese, Wisniowski and Gesbert and think they have some excellent depth behind them including abdul halil and johannesen who are solid leaders themselves.
ZARA just looks like one of the classic dominant PCT teams that scores everywhere and is full of riders that are better in PCT than PT - they have done similar before and other teams like Farfetch have done so very succesful in the past.
For MOL i'm not convinced enough that Almeida (hi/tt/...) and Ardila (energy stats) will be dominant enough to counter a possible lack of depth scoring. Still, a super strong team that should easily promote and i fully understand why most others have them as the title favourite.
After that it is almost impossible to predict as the whole division is super close together. Only DeNA is an obvious last place.
Almost didnt post this because that large group from 4th down to the relegation spots looks closer together than ive seen in any other year and feel super unsure about this. Feels like I was randomly pulling names out of a hat at times so really wouldnt surprise me if one of the teams i put in the relegation spots enters the promotion fight or a predicted top 10 team relegates.
1. Assa Abloy
2. ZARA - Irizar
3. MOL Cycling Team
4. DK Zalgiris
5. JEWA TIROL
6. Specialized
7. Minions
8. Bolt - Eesti
9. McCormick Pro Cycling
10. Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
11. Trans Looney Tunes
12. Zwift - Newton Foundation
13. Ekoi - Le Creuset
14. Everesting
15. Duvel-Tsingtao
16. Bralirwa - Cegeka
17. Tryg - Eni
18. Lotto-Caloi
19. Spark Team NZ
20. Sauber Petronas Racing
21. Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
22. IESE ProCycling Team
23. Colombini Kometa
24. DeNA RoadStars
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 07:04
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 07-10-2025 13:40
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Team Manager
Posts: 6546
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1290.00
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cunego59 wrote:
I want to revive something that I did two years ago: pair rank community predictions. The concept is pretty simple: You choose between two random teams paired against each other regarding who you think will finish higher in the final 2025 rankings. You'll get 20 pairs for PT and PCT and 15 for CT. And as more people participate and more teams get paired against each other, each team will have a win rate that will determine the final prediction rankings.
CT Survey
PCT Survey
PT Survey
You can of course participate multiple times to get more pairs, but of course it's better the more different people participate, to get more perspectives and viewpoints.
Here are the results from the polls. As a reminder, each team was randomly paired against other teams and participants had to choose which team was more likely to finish higher in the final standings. These rankings are based on win percentage.
For CT, we had 23 participants for a total of 345 duels, meaning each team was on average presented around 43 times.
| Team | Win% | | 1st | Peugeot - Bancolombia | 92 | | 2nd | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 89 | | 3rd | Bianchi Enel | 75 | | 4th | Glanbia | 64 | | 5th | SEE Turtles | 64 | | 6th | Podium Ambition | 61 | | 7th | Ethiopian Airlines | 55 | | 8th | Euskadi-Murias | 54 | | 9th | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 53 | | 10th | IncaLine Pro Cycling | 50 | | 11th | Tafjord Kraft | 43 | | 12th | Parmalat - Ecopetrol | 31 | | 13th | Team Zappes Kölsch | 27 | | 14th | THE ONE - Fox God | 21 | | 15th | Air New Zealand-Prada | 21 | | 16th | Kone-Nordea | 20 |
For PCT, there were 17 participants for a total of 340 duels, meaning each team was presented on average 28 times:
| Team | Win% | | 1st | Hunter Valley Cycling | 92 | | 2nd | MOL Cycling Team | 91 | | 3rd | Assa Abloy | 76 | | 4th | Specialized | 76 | | 5th | Zwift - Newton Foundation | 66 | | 6th | DK Zalgiris | 66 | | 7th | McCormick Pro Cycling | 62 | | 8th | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 57 | | 9th | Minions | 55 | | 10th | Everesting | 52 | | 11th | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 50 | | 12th | Trans Looney Tunes | 46 | | 13th | JEWA TIROL | 45 | | 14th | Tryg - Eni | 45 | | 15th | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | 42 | | 16th | Bralirwa - Cegeka | 41 | | 17th | Bolt - Eesti | 37 | | 18th | Spark Team NZ | 32 | | 19th | Colombini Kometa | 29 | | 20th | Sauber Petronas Racing | 29 | | 21st | Lotto-Caloi | 28 | | 22nd | Duvel-Tsingtao | 23 | | 23rd | IESE ProCycling Team | 16 | | 24th | DeNA Roadstars | 0 |
For PT, there were 15 participants for a total of 300 duels, meaning each team was presented on average 27 times:
| Team | Win% | | 1st | Evonik - ELKO | 100 | | 2nd | Aker - MOT | 93 | | 3rd | Team Puma - SAP | 79 | | 4th | King Power | 79 | | 5th | Xero Racing | 71 | | 6th | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 63 | | 7th | Cedevita | 62 | | 8th | EA Vesuvio | 62 | | 9th | Gazelle | 59 | | 10th | Indosat Ooredoo | 57 | | 11th | Polar | 57 | | 12th | cycleYorkshire | 51 | | 13th | ELCO - ABEA | 50 | | 14th | Team UBS | 47 | | 15th | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 36 | | 16th | Sony - Force India | 32 | | 17th | Rabobank | 31 | | 18th | Fastned | 22 | | 19th | Grieg-Maersk | 21 | | 20th | Jura GIANTS | 18 | | 21st | Los Pollos Hermanos | 16 | | 22nd | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 7 |
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| Heine |
Posted on 07-10-2025 17:37
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4460
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I can live with 92%
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| knockout |
Posted on 07-10-2025 22:52
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8233
Joined: 21-12-2010
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100% 
Thanks for doing this again cunego
Some interesting placements here. Zwift in PCT promotion spots is interesting for me as is EA that low in PT. But overall, pretty good ones despite a somewhat limited sample size
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 08-10-2025 07:52
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Sprinter
Posts: 1803
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Thanks for putting this together, cungeo!
What could say "mid-table finish" more than 11th place with exactly 50%?
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| Heine |
Posted on 08-10-2025 07:55
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4460
Joined: 08-04-2007
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And DeNa at 0% 
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