The transfer season is coming! Carlsberg made it through renewals with most of their roster intact, but will that remain the case after two weeks of chaos, promise, and glory? Our analysts have sat down and made their predictions for who is most likely to stay and leave the team this season. As always, this list is not determinative of whether a rider will actually be transferred. Rather, it displays the likelihood of a sale given a market value offer at the peak of transfers. Context will be determinative of where the chips actually fall.
First
Last
Availability
David
Per
No
Alex
Aranburu
Maybe
Hugh
Carthy
Likely
Mattias
Skjelmose Jensen
No
Fredrik Strand
Galta
Yes
Matthew
Walls
Maybe
Asbjorn
Kragh Andersen
No
Lukas
Meiler
Unlikely
Jonas
Gregaard
No
Niklas
Eg
Maybe
Gyasi
Sulvaran
Maybe
Erik Nordsaeter
Resell
Unlikely
Patrick
Olesen
Likely
Hugo
Forssell
Likely
Goldwijnn
Cannister
Unlikely
Tilen
Finkst
Maybe
Mathias
Krigbaum
Unlikely
Tobias
Lund Andresen
No
Jeremias
Arenas Rodriguez
Maybe
The most likely rider to go seems to be Frederik Strand Galta. He has put together two phenomenal years in Carlsberg green, marked by consistency and some surprise wins. However, the team is committed to providing Mathias Skjelmose Jensen leadership opportunities this year, including in GTs, and that leaves Galta as the odd man out. He's taken a significant pay cut to only € 250,000 this season, and his amazing energy stats mean he'll still be viable beyond this year. He would be a leader option at any level.
More peculiar to see is Hugh Carthy as potentially available. Carthy is fresh off a 1000 point season in PT, and this year's GT routes look even more suited to him due to their lack of TT km's. However, reports are that he could want out too if the team prioritizes the currently lesser-talented Skjelmose Jensen in its planning due to the latter's Danish nationality. Carthy is a top climber with multiple years before decline, so he would take a strong offer to get, but is definitely obtainable.
Aranburu is an interesting case where he is perpetually somewhat available, but the team ultimately seems to decide to invest millions into him instead. With top puncheurs continuing to decline and Aranburu on a reasonable salary, he could be moved, but is not on the block exactly. Walls is in a similar position. He disappointed in his inaugural Carlsberg season and a change of scenery may make sense, but the team still envisions him taking over as Carlsberg's primary sprinter this year.
Looking at domestiques, most could be available for the right price, maybe more so than in the past, though the team is also happy with its core and could keep it for another year. Danish/Curacao nationality and youth tend to weigh in favor of staying, but it's a spectrum. It would be surprising to see longtime Danes like Eg and Olesen go, but they seem more available than in years' past, depending on how much Carlsberg likes the money or swap.
Only a few riders are clearly untouchable. Per is the king, AKA will end his career here, Skjelmose and Lund Andresen are the next generation, and Gregaard has signed too many team friendly contracts to go anywhere.
In terms of loans, Jeremias Arenas Rodriguez is a level 1 rider on minimum wage who will be looking for a 1 > 3 loan (or 1 >2), assuming he is not sold.
Carlsberg is also open to taking in loanees, particularly those with cobbles and/or time trial abilities. Scandinavian riders get priority, but others may be suitable too. 25k/25k wage splits can be useful in these contexts, though other arrangements are of course possible.
Carlsberg aren't necessarily looking to buy any particular type of rider, though it would be unsurprising to see them be willing to spend big money on a young leader type. Carlsberg doesn't (currently) have any ideal training targets for this season, and they may want to start getting their leadership core in order now for when Skjelmose's training bills start coming due next year. This could make the riders above attractive in swaps or swap + money deals as well.
We'll keep you updated on transfer events as they transpire!
A couple of maybes we might need to have a chat about turning into Yeses but we will cross that bridge when we get there. While you do you say that there is no clear training target this year I'd love to see Per bumped to 83 cobbles but it is a fairly big investment for diminishing returns.
Would be surprised if you got to sell both Carthy and Galta, would've expected at least one of them to stay until Skjelmose is training eligible next year. But given their availabilities, we might have a talk or two, it's pretty clear where I need some more firepower...
Anyway, good luck for transfers and the upcoming season, and I'm sure you'll make some nice moves to further strengthen your roster!
Very interesting, maybe for me, definitely for others. Lots could be done with the money you could make, you have a great core with Per, Skjelmose and the great squad that could manoeuvre around a lot. Hope Skjelmose can go on a tear with his U25 eligibility - the fact it will no doubt be the worst statline he will have for nearly a decade is a terrifying idea I'll try not to think about for a while
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Could it really be the beginning of the end for the Curucao connection?!
You did really well with thise renewals I think, and a couple of interesting names on the list! Galta is still somewhat interesting at all levels I'd think. Aranburu and Carthy easily the most interesting names on the list, but also a rider like Eg could be an interesting asset.
I have to second the others that you have laid a great foundation not only for transfers but also for the years to come. And I'm curious how Lund Andresen will perform once maxed.
A couple of maybes we might need to have a chat about turning into Yeses but we will cross that bridge when we get there. While you do you say that there is no clear training target this year I'd love to see Per bumped to 83 cobbles but it is a fairly big investment for diminishing returns.
In general, I'm pretty adverse to the idea of training a 30 year old with fewer maxed years remaining, but that alone isn't determinative. The idea of an 83 cobble Per is enticing, and I do think training cobbles is generally a pretty good investment. His 82 cobble training was an amazing choice in hindsight and probably has kept me up the last two years. But yeah, I think the return on investment is pretty low at this point. He's already a definitive top 3 cobbler, and his energy stats are such that it probably wouldn't really buy him an extra peak year. Maybe it gives him a slight edge over Pedersen, but I just don't think it's worth the money at this point.
Would be surprised if you got to sell both Carthy and Galta, would've expected at least one of them to stay until Skjelmose is training eligible next year. But given their availabilities, we might have a talk or two, it's pretty clear where I need some more firepower...
Anyway, good luck for transfers and the upcoming season, and I'm sure you'll make some nice moves to further strengthen your roster!
Thank you! It's certainly not unlikely that one does end up staying, but we're more saying that both are individually available for the right price. Carthy in particular has been tremendous and certainly won't be given away cheap, but I'm not as instinctively tied to keeping him as some others since he doesn't fit the regional focus and has only been here a year.
Big turnaround for your team if both Carthy and Galta are going away. Its time for Skjelmose Jensen to take leadership!
Per is an awesome rider and should continue to score great points for you, 600k on him is a bargain.
After signing Per for $1,000,00 a couple of years ago, it finally feels like he's settling into his proper wage bracket. Hope those savings can be of use!
Very interesting, maybe for me, definitely for others. Lots could be done with the money you could make, you have a great core with Per, Skjelmose and the great squad that could manoeuvre around a lot. Hope Skjelmose can go on a tear with his U25 eligibility - the fact it will no doubt be the worst statline he will have for nearly a decade is a terrifying idea I'll try not to think about for a while
Hoping to make the most of Skjelmose's U25 eligibility indeed! Though I'm sure Plapp and Remco won't make it easy.
Could it really be the beginning of the end for the Curucao connection?!
You did really well with thise renewals I think, and a couple of interesting names on the list! Galta is still somewhat interesting at all levels I'd think. Aranburu and Carthy easily the most interesting names on the list, but also a rider like Eg could be an interesting asset.
Thank you! I think I've gotten a lot better at them over the eyars, though there are always surprises.
Definitely not the end of the Curacao connection! There's a good chance all three stay in the end, but maybe just more of a chance one of them leaves than previously.
I love Eg, and he's kind of been the perfect Danish domestique for me over the years. But Gregaard as definitely eclipsed him for my personal needs as a GT superdomestique, so we'll see if it ends up making sense to move on.
I have to second the others that you have laid a great foundation not only for transfers but also for the years to come. And I'm curious how Lund Andresen will perform once maxed.
I don't expect Lund Andresen to be a world-beater once maxed due to his mediocre backups and lack of versatility. But if he could be a solid second tier leader as a homegrown Dane, that would be more than enough for me.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
At the very least you look to be fishing for offers and I'm sure you'll get plenty of them, even if you choose to make less changes than the availability suggests. Having Per and Skjelmose as a core certainly makes it harder to get into any trouble
At the very least you look to be fishing for offers and I'm sure you'll get plenty of them, even if you choose to make less changes than the availability suggests. Having Per and Skjelmose as a core certainly makes it harder to get into any trouble
Am I that transparent? It's really not intentional, I just love the idea of spicing up my team until it comes time to actually part with a well loved rider.
I will say this—I think it's overwhelmingly likely that at least one of Carthy/Galta is gone. That's not just posturing, that's fully intended and almost necessitated by roster construction.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
One of the only teams availability posts i want to see! I foresee another strong season ahead for the team, which makes everyone happy because we all are fans!
One of the only teams availability posts i want to see! I foresee another strong season ahead for the team, which makes everyone happy because we all are fans!
And one of the only teams I would consider selling certain riders to! How interesting.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Very interesting transfer season coming up for you, and very interested to see how you restructure your roster to take the next step after building a very solid PT team. Good also to see Finkst continuing to develop and hoping he gets maxed this season, whether here or elsewhere.
The future is now! Somewhat expected that Galta is on the move, although I am more surprised to see Carthy available as well. It doesn't look like we will be discussing any permanent transfers from your squad to mine, but mayhaps we can sort something temporary out.
Per remains the obvious standout on the team, with AKA set to contribute as well. I am leaning towards hybrids being harmed by the addition of MM, so I don't expect many improvements from Aranburu. The real question is just how good Skjelmose will be right out the box; and which of U25 classifications you are keen to secure.
Very interesting transfer season coming up for you, and very interested to see how you restructure your roster to take the next step after building a very solid PT team. Good also to see Finkst continuing to develop and hoping he gets maxed this season, whether here or elsewhere.
Thank you! It's kind of a weird spot to be in where I'm not really sure which direction to go, but it's also exciting. Very happy to have Finkst on board too. I've traded a lot of my fighters in the past, and I guess it may happen again for a nice offer, but I'm also very happy to have him on board as a versatile domestique. Invested a year of development into him, and it's nice to give Per a Slovenian friend.
The future is now! Somewhat expected that Galta is on the move, although I am more surprised to see Carthy available as well. It doesn't look like we will be discussing any permanent transfers from your squad to mine, but mayhaps we can sort something temporary out.
Per remains the obvious standout on the team, with AKA set to contribute as well. I am leaning towards hybrids being harmed by the addition of MM, so I don't expect many improvements from Aranburu. The real question is just how good Skjelmose will be right out the box; and which of U25 classifications you are keen to secure.
Sad to here we likely won't have any permanent deals to talk about, as it's always nice to discuss possibilities with you, even if they don't end up working out. But you never know what's in store!
Will be interesting for sure. I trust Per at this point, but I'm not sure I've accounted for how much will be lost from AKA's decline. It's hard to measure with sprinters. I'm also a bit pessimistic about Aranburu just because of his history, and the fact that I can never adapt my calendar to his needs (don't race Balkans, etc.). But hope MM won't have too much of an impact since mtn/hill has been a sliding scale in the past anyway.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Every end leads to a new beginning, but as is tradition, we always starts with what's ended when analyzing Carlsberg's transfer season. So let's see who departed this season.
Fredrik Stand Galta | Stage Racer | 2023-2024
From beginning to end, we spelled his name wrong, but Fredrik Strand Galta will go down as a key figure in Carlsberg's team history. Galta was flipped to Carlsberg through Cedevita in somewhat of a desperation move back in 2023, where Carlsberg was willing to overpay for a GC leader from its broader focus region in a big move to stay in PT. It was a success.
Galta immediately proved his worth, winning the 2023 Volta a Portugal in his very first race with the team, and taking a stage win along the way. He followed that up with an impressive performance in the Giro that unfortunately only resulted in 9th overall due to some breakaway antics, while also taking top 10's in other stage races to end up with 849 points. While his 2024 lacked a stage race win, his steady 5th place in the Vuelta led him to another great finish.
While his time in green and blue was clearly a success, age started to get the better of him this season, and with Mathias Skjelmose Jensen emerging as a stage race leader in his own right, the decision was made to sell him. He goes to new CT team Peugeot -Bancolombia, where he will have the opportunity not only to lead, but compete for the top spots in his division, for a fee of $886,000.
Patrick Olesen | Climber | 2018-2024
Patrick Olesen joined Carlsberg in 2018 as 24 year old unmaxed talent with lots to prove. Throughout his seven years with Carlsberg, Olesen was a strong and dependable domestique for generations of both climbers and puncheurs—Garby, Juul-Jensen, Warbasse, Guldhammer, Aranburu, Galta—Olesen was the shepherd to them all. This left few occasions for individual glory: a Benelux Challenge 6th place finish in 2020, and a stage top 10 in the 2021 Giro d'Italia were his palmares highlights, but his mark was left across his races regardless.
The arrival of a younger rider in his niche and the need for a 1>3 loan led to Olesen's sale to DK Zalgiris for $307,500 and another rider. Management is still questioning whether this was the right decision, but Olesen will be remembered for his time across many eras of Carlsberg.
Matthew Walls | Sprinter | 2024
Walls signed with Carlsberg last offseason from free agency for a hefty contract. At 26 years old and with a wicked top speed, management had high hopes that Walls would at least partially assume Asbjorn Kragh Andersen's lead sprinter role in the coming years. It didn't quite work out that way. In part because the team gave AKA preferential treatment in scheduling, Walls rode a GT focused calendar and was fairly anonymous throughout. While the team envisioned giving him another chance this year, he ended up leaving in a rider swap instead.
As always, we asked baseballover312 for his thoughts:
"You lose guys every year, but losing Pat on the team bus stings. When you make a move like that, you hope it's for something big, and the fact that we didn't ultimately need his fee money much leaves a bitter taste. But we thank him for all he did in his 7 years with us. For Galta, it was mutually agreed to move apart with zero hard feelings. With Walls, it was more that a change of scenery felt right given the options available."
Of course, everyone cares about the arrivals more than departures. We'll get you those soon!
Mr. Pickles
Sporting News
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Losing a guy like Olesen always hurts. Sounds like the right decision but sometimes that's no comfort at all As I always say when he's mentioned, Galta is one of my favourite riders who has a skillset that I don't like, and his stint in green and blue solidified that with some memorable moments.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Losing a guy like Olesen always hurts. Sounds like the right decision but sometimes that's no comfort at all As I always say when he's mentioned, Galta is one of my favourite riders who has a skillset that I don't like, and his stint in green and blue solidified that with some memorable moments.
Olesen hurts most because I miscalculated and didn't strictly need to sell him to make anything else significant like the 1>3 work. I still probably got solid value, but after almost a decade, it doesn't feel quite right to go by that. For Galta, I jus don't know how I would have utilized him this year and decided to move on. Maybe also the wrong move, since his energy stats were still good and I couldn't replace his scoring.
Arrivals post in the morning!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Three departures in transfers this year, and six arrivals of maxed out riders. Only one comes from free agency, that rest come to Carlsberg from cash purchases or sales.
Frederik Rodenberg | $220,000 | Sprinter
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
74
60
64
64
70
77
73
59
79
79
63
64
74
The decline of Asbjorn Kragh Andersen appears to have sent team management into a bit of a spiral. They've had a Danish lead sprinter for the better part of a decade now, and have another one on the way in Tobias Lund Andresen. But this season, they planned to rely primarily on British rider Matt Walls. However, an opportunity to add another premier Danish sprinter seemed possible, and Carlsberg couldn't resist to jump on it. Frederik Rodenberg joins from Tryg, together with Mathias Norsgaard, for Walls and a $395,000 fee.
At $220,000, Rodenberg's salary for this year is a bit higher than one would like, but since they already had that cap space with few other options late in transfers, the team decided it made sense to go for it and hope that wage corrects in future years since Frederik is only 27. Rodenberg had a tremendous year last year, scoring 570 points on his way to a top 25 finish in PCT. While we likely can't expect that kind of performance again, the team hopes he will fit the team identity better than Walls without sacrificing any significant scoring.
Mathias Norsgaard | $90,000 | Time Trialist
FL
MO
HI
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ST
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RC
CB
SP
AC
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73
62
65
79
69
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65
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57
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57
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77
The second half of the Walls deal is Mathias Norsgaard, another young-ish Dane at 28 years old. Carlsberg hasn't had a pure time trialist since Arturs Belevics left two years ago, and in fact, Norsgaard becomes the team's best ever pure time trialist. He's certainly not expected to be a feature rider in PT, but the team hope he'll improve their TTT setup dramatically and potentially provide some depth points in the few mandatory TT races where Carlsberg previously had zero hope at all.
Milan Menten | $90,000 | Classics
FL
MO
HI
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ST
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CB
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FG
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72
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68
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67
With the opportunities for big leader moves seeming to pass the team by, Carlsberg doubled down on what it's always known and loved—cobblestones—hoping that this could be a recipe for more efficient depth scoring. Menten is the big piece of that, transferring from King Power with Michael Vanthourenhout (later sold) for a fee of $525,000. Menten scored almost 300 points in PT as a superdomestique for Rasmus Tiller last year, and is only only a 90k wage. The team really likes his great endurance and climbing ability. With David Per as the team's only chance of survival, Menten will hopefully help him get over the line as soon as possible while also providing depth points on his own. And at 29, he can fill that role for years to come.
Asbjorn Hellemose | $70,000 | Climber
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
69
75
75
61
72
73
75
62
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71
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61
Hellemose has been on Carlsberg's radar for a long time, but has never been able to fit into their plans. In an almost uncanny and eery sort of way, Hellemose is a younger carbon copy of Patrick Olesen, who left the team this year. He's a great helper on both longer and shorter climbers, and at 26, he will look fto take on Olesen's role long term. After riding last season with Tryg, he arrives at Carlsberg through Evonik for a fee of $230,000.
Michael Gogl | $50,000 | Puncheur
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
69
69
76
62
74
72
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57
67
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63
The team's lone maxed free agent signing this year, Gogl was picked up at the very end of the period as hills support. The team hopes he can fetch bottles well, but he also has the potential to do well from a successful breakaway with some luck on his side.
Irakli Bablidze | $50,000 | Puncheur
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
70
73
74
67
74
70
68
64
59
61
70
63
67
Bablidze joins Carlsberg as a wage offset from the Patrick Olesen deal. While the team doesn't expect much from him, he hopes to be a reliable domestique in uphill races.
"We tried to do a lot more with our cap space and resources this time around, but it becomes increasingly difficult to see how that could happen given our desire to reinforce our Danish core and the lack of available options younger or better than what we already had. Ultimately, we definitely lost scoring potential this offseason. With AKA's decline and Galta's departure, we've lost a lot of points and didn't really get them back in any big way. We hope that each of the riders we obtained can plug a hole and in the aggregate keep us afloat, but it's going to be difficult. Still, we're excited about both this season and the future."
As I always say when he's mentioned, Galta is one of my favourite riders who has a skillset that I don't like, and his stint in green and blue solidified that with some memorable moments.
Milan Menten 
Michael Gogl 
Irakli Bablidze 
