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Tour of South Africa Discussion
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 13-12-2024 08:17
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World Champion
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Tour of South Africa
The history
Welcome to South Africa, the country that proved the prison system is working after they locked up a black man who once rehabilitated became their first elected president! This race has been on the calendar since 2012, when Jonathan Bellis won the first edition.
The next editions were won by Nolan Hoffman, Hassen Ben Nasser and Maxime Monfort. In 2016 we had the first Diego Ulissi win. Tejay Van Garderen won in 2017 before Ulissi won his second one. In 2019 Jonathan Bellis returned to win his second edition, 7 years after the first.
The next guy to win 2 was Bruno Borges in 2020 and 2022, with the 2021 being a rather surprising win by Vegard Stake Laengen. Last year we had an even bigger steal with Ion Izagirre of Bralirwa winning the race with a quiet but solid performance.
Unfortunately, the race got demoted to C1 this year. But at least we can see some records being broken. With 2 former winners returning, we might see Borges being the first rider to win three, or Izagirre becoming the first rider who can win two in a row.
The route
So, we’re starting in … Lesotho? Ok I guess. South Africa is such a small country we need to move elsewhere in order to get 6 stages. The first stage has some hills, not enough for massive time gaps, but enough to rule out the pure sprinters. A strong punch is needed to collect the first yellow jersey.
Stage 2 and we’re in Lesotho again. But at least we’ll finish in South Africa this time. Maseru and Upington are about 700 km apart, but luckily the organisers found a shortcut and the stage is only 187 km long. While you think about that, I’ll just say the finish is quite similar to the previous one.
For stage three we go 187/700 km back to start in Maseru again. Sorry, once again no South Africa for you as we finish in Quthing with again a very similar punchy finish. You need to survive these 3 stages if you want to win the race.
On day 4 we go to south South Africa in what many consider to be the key stage of the race. A 35 km slightly hilly team time trial will shake up the GC completely. We’ve seen some weird results here in the past, so beware of what can happen here!
Stage 5 is a circuit in Knysna that probably is the most climbing route of the race. If you had a good TTT, you have to hang on for dear life. If you had a bad TTT, you will have to attack today.
Finaly stage 6 is another circuit in Port Elizabeth. It’s not a tough as yesterday, but you can still lose the race here if the previous 5 days were hard on you. In the end, we should have a deserving winner though.
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The startlist
Because we’re in the Southern Hemisphere and nothing makes sense here, we have to go over the teams from Z to A. Meaning we’ll start with Tryg, where Arnaud Demare deserves a mention. He easily won the first 3 stages last year, before going down in the rankings. He has the team to go stage hunting again, but nothing more.
UBS is here for Patrick Muller with incredible TTT support. Two big questions though, is he good enough to follow the TTT team and who will help him on the other stages? Simba is the first CT team joining us and we should see them in the breakaway a lot with Nikiema, Carpenter and Laas.
The See Turtles seem to be only interested in the TTT, not sure how far that will get them. Sauber has Azman for the GC and maybe Eislers for the sprints. Podium Ambition bring Lagane for stage hunting, but I’m not convinced here can beat Demare.
The Minions go all in on Tomohiro Kinoshita, who is the best pure hilly rider here. But like with UBS I have major questions about the TTT and the hill support. McCormick brings two very similar leaders with Narvaez and Seigle. Once again good TTT support but how will they handle their weaker TT leaders?
LLapi has a strong leader duo in Wilco Kelderman and Bruno Borges, but both are past their prime. Main question here is if Borges will get a chance to go for the record or if he will be stuck on domestique duty for Kelderman. Kraftwerk has their usual machine of solid riders, I see some chances of Fausto Masnada doing an Izagirre here.
ISA might be the strongest team here, a good leader with home rider Aidan Van Niekerk, hill support, TTT support and even a sprinter with Russo. Will this be their year? Indosat will also be in the mix with Andrea Bagioli and very strong support. Hilcona bring Eiking to the race, but the TTT is going to hurt him really bad.
Glanbia gives Ian Boswell a last chance to shine here, but he really is over his peak. The same goes for Hyundai with Kristian Haugaard Jensen. Everesting seems weaker than most CT teams and will have to settle for breakaways. Ethiopian Airlines has a pretty impressive lineup for a CT team, but lack the balance for a good TTT.
Ekoi is a very solid team that will Paret-Peintre in a good position. Can he finish it though? Duvel is disappointing me. With only 6 riders, they’re throwing away Lyu’s GC in the TTT. Zalgiris looks very strong with Peter Sagan and Michal Kwiatkowski, but their TTT might be very unbalanced.
You have to love that Cervelo team! Gianni Moscon is an excellent leader for a CT team, and they gave him support on both the hills and the TTT. The only weakness is that it’s Gianni Moscon. But maybe at that point 35 year old Ion Izagirre will rise and win this race back to back!
Finaly there’s Air New Zealand. And they’re gone. No, they unfortunately could not field enough riders and lose their starting spot. Another blow in an already tough season for them. But as they say: The show must go on!
I find it very hard to make a prediction this year, as not many teams have a good balance to cope with the hills and the TTT. I’ll just go for Moscon, Masnada and Kinoshita as top 3.
Reports will be done by Imladrik!
Edited by Imladrik on 13-12-2024 20:59
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 13-12-2024 09:26
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Grand Tour Champion
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This is what you get when you pick (PT)HC bands assuming you'll sell Kinoshita easily.
Maybe not the most suited race for the Japanese but more suitable than others. Let's make the most of it.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 13-12-2024 12:13
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Small Tour Specialist
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We are back after literally 6 month break in between races, ah yes, easy win
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 13-12-2024 12:48
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Go Masnada! He would've won the race last year had he not lost some time in a random split, but that's probably just because we also had Errazkin who was considered the leater until the TTT... It could really be Fausto's year this time 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-12-2024 08:07
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 13-12-2024 20:59
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I've added the startlist
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 14-12-2024 02:17
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Directeur Sportif
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Big one for us, we scored a lot here last year, probably can't repeat that but need solid points. Idea is Narvaez is good enough on the TT bike to not lose too much time in the TTT and good enough in the hills to stay in the front group.
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| MacC |
Posted on 14-12-2024 10:09
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Sprinter
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Thanks for preview..Cold reality coming into our season now...expectations low to quite low
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 14-12-2024 14:20
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Everesting seems weaker than most CT teams and will have to settle for breakaways.
That's us 
Thanks for the preview Olfardh. Looking forward to suck in this race. Rooting for Borges to deliver a surprise hattrick.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 14-12-2024 20:44
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Thanks for the great preview, I always like those team by team ones!
APP clearly is our best GC option and with a decent TTT unit he shouldn't lose much time on any stage. So if he shows his usual consistency he should be in for a good GC result. There's also hope Oliveira shows something in those stages that come down to a sprint. Most of all it's great to be racing again!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 15-12-2024 10:15
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A good stage result for Kinoshita, but maybe not the best in the context of the GC, leaving us on the back foot now.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 15-12-2024 14:57
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Congrats lief! Demare finally delivers again.
For us APP and Oliveira both in the top 10 is a good start, especially with the former getting some bonus seconds as well. Now let's keep this kind of results going for tge other stages.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 15-12-2024 15:59
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Directeur Sportif
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Would have been nice to see Narvaez contesting the win but he was there safely in the front group so no complaints.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 15-12-2024 20:33
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Directeur Sportif
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Another solid stage, when Siegle attacked I panicked and though it might mean Narvaez had missed the split but he was where he was supposed to be and grabbed some bonuses at the finish. Warbasse staying in place to pick up some depth GC stuff.
Thanks for the reports.
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| Caspi |
Posted on 16-12-2024 07:05
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Great to see Kiflay in the break on both stages and raking in some minor points as KoM leader.
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| MacC |
Posted on 16-12-2024 09:26
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Sprinter
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Steady stuff from Boswell. We won't win the TTT but we don't fear it either.
Let's hope Boswell's old legs have a few more days in them
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 16-12-2024 09:33
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Congrats to sammy! Nice podium by Oliveira, let's hope he and APP continue consistently finishing in the front group, then it could get a really good race for us. And maybe we can actually contest for the team classification as well, we didn't win one of those yet.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 16-12-2024 09:51
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7611
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Kinoshita Mr Consistent
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 16-12-2024 13:06
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Solid start from Moscon. I am hoping for a bit more going forward with Moscon but nobody knows what he will do  |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 16-12-2024 15:48
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World Champion
Posts: 14590
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Thank you mr Spambot, I did put a lot of work into the preview.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 16-12-2024 20:21
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7611
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