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Tour of Tasmania - Discussions
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| seancoll |
Posted on 12-10-2024 00:08
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Tour of Tasmania
PT - 3 Stages 
The Pro Tour Calendar begins in the land down under the land down under as the Tour of Tasmania kicks off the PT title fight. At just three stages, the start list is packed with stars across all three disciplines as there’s opportunity for some extra bang for your buck in the short tour. Of course, the race is headlined by 4-time defending champion Taylor Phinney as he tries to keep one of the longest strangleholds on a race in the entire MG.
| Name | FL | MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | RC | SP | AC | Gabriel  Cullaigh | 74 | 62 | 67 | 63 | 73 | 70 | 78 | 82 | 81 | Artem  Samolenkov | 74 | 64 | 64 | 69 | 75 | 71 | 78 | 81 | 79 | Matti  Manninen | 74 | 65 | 66 | 69 | 71 | 75 | 77 | 81 | 80 | Asbjorn  Kragh Andersen | 77 | 54 | 64 | 65 | 70 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 77 | Mohamad Izzat Hilmi  Abdul Halil | 70 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 71 | 68 | 77 | 81 | 79 | Salem  Kemboi | 78 | 62 | 64 | 63 | 74 | 77 | 81 | 80 | 80 | Fabio  Jakobsen | 74 | 59 | 67 | 59 | 75 | 73 | 81 | 80 | 80 | Cees  Bol | 76 | 64 | 70 | 67 | 75 | 77 | 81 | 79 | 77 | Felix  Gross | 74 | 61 | 61 | 62 | 69 | 75 | 76 | 79 | 79 | Barnabas  Peak | 80 | 64 | 69 | 67 | 73 | 77 | 77 | 78 | 78 | Bas  Van der Kooij | 73 | 62 | 69 | 60 | 75 | 74 | 83 | 78 | 77 | | Jules Hesters | 75 | 61 | 64 | 60 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 78 | 78 | Dusan  Rajovic | 72 | 58 | 64 | 59 | 70 | 76 | 70 | 78 | 82 | Aksel  Nommela | 72 | 57 | 67 | 58 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 78 | 78 |
The sprint field is the least deep of the three stages since it has the least impact on the GC. Gabriel Cullaigh leads the charge as the favorite to take the first stage, while Manninen also stands out. Kemboi and Jakobsen also sit in that seemingly sweet position of 6th/7th in the favorite’s list which normally push a bit higher than expected. While this first stage isn’t crucial for GC, the winner will take the first leader’s jersey of the entire MG season and due to some teams coming with a few time trialists, this sprint could make a different in whether this race is a success or not for a few teams.
| Name | FL | MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | RC | SP | AC | | Toms Skujins | 69 | 69 | 82 | 58 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 67 | 75 | | Joseph Areruya | 72 | 81 | 81 | 65 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 68 | 76 | Mauri  Vansevenant | 74 | 74 | 80 | 69 | 79 | 78 | 71 | 70 | 80 | | Attila Valter | 72 | 78 | 80 | 66 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 69 | 78 | | Elie Gesbert | 71 | 74 | 80 | 64 | 80 | 78 | 78 | 68 | 73 | Sergio  Higuita | 69 | 79 | 80 | 65 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 66 | 75 | Amanuel  Gebrezgabihier | 68 | 70 | 79 | 66 | 74 | 74 | 72 | 67 | 69 | | Andreas Kron | 73 | 71 | 79 | 66 | 75 | 75 | 71 | 66 | 73 | | Jack Bobridge | 69 | 65 | 79 | 73 | 68 | 68 | 63 | 65 | 74 | | Joni Kanerva | 69 | 64 | 79 | 70 | 75 | 69 | 70 | 64 | 76 | | Taylor Phinney | 71 | 83 | 75 | 81 | 74 | 71 | 73 | 70 | 72 | Jack  Haig | 72 | 83 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 78 | 61 | 73 | | Ryan Eastman | 70 | 82 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 62 | 69 | | Chen Shikai | 72 | 81 | 71 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 57 | 67 | | Jan Hirt | 69 | 80 | 73 | 72 | 76 | 78 | 78 | 64 | 75 | | Tao Geoghegan Hart | 70 | 79 | 74 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 75 | 62 | 69 | Tom  Wirtgen | 73 | 78 | 75 | 84 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 63 | 72 | | Magnus Cort Nielsen | 72 | 78 | 74 | 72 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 54 | 71 | | Hector Carretero Millan | 64 | 78 | 72 | 71 | 69 | 63 | 71 | 64 | 61 | Tobias  Foss | 69 | 78 | 72 | 77 | 77 | 79 | 79 | 60 | 69 | | Valentin Darbellay | 69 | 78 | 71 | 75 | 73 | 75 | 77 | 67 | 65 | | Piotr Brozyna | 69 | 78 | 69 | 72 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 64 | 69 |
If Stage 2 holds true to the 2023 season’s gameplan, expect an uphill mass hill finish. Almost 75% of the field finished on same time last year, so except for the finishing bonus seconds, this also didn’t have a huge impact on the full GC result. Still, Phinney won this exact finish last year and it was the overall difference. Areruya is a beast on these types of finishes, too and this is his only focus stage. Who knows if this stage will lean toward the
With a number of great time trialists in this group, there would be a great benefit to those riders to push the pace for the entire race to try to distance the flat time trialists. Eastman and Haig fall into this category where they need to force the difference here, while Phinney can sit and rely on the time trial.
Skujins, Valter, and Vansevenant are three other great options for this stage without needing to stress too much on the GC implications of the stage as well.
| Name | FL | MO | HI | TT | ST | RS | RC | SP | AC | | Tom Wirtgen | 73 | 78 | 75 | 84 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 63 | 72 | | Mads Würtz | 77 | 67 | 71 | 83 | 78 | 78 | 76 | 66 | 70 | | Marlen Zmorka | 74 | 61 | 66 | 82 | 74 | 75 | 72 | 62 | 70 | | Taylor Phinney | 71 | 83 | 75 | 81 | 74 | 71 | 73 | 70 | 72 | Ryan  Mullen | 75 | 62 | 70 | 81 | 75 | 74 | 72 | 60 | 70 | Yuttana  Mano | 71 | 72 | 75 | 80 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 60 | 66 | | Filippo Ganna | 76 | 69 | 73 | 80 | 74 | 81 | 69 | 69 | 73 | | Steven Lammertink | 74 | 64 | 69 | 80 | 70 | 76 | 70 | 63 | 68 | | Mario Gonzalez Salas | 70 | 57 | 60 | 80 | 74 | 76 | 67 | 61 | 54 | | Ivo Oliveira | 70 | 70 | 72 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 67 | 70 | 72 | | Nikita Razumov | 74 | 63 | 70 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 73 | 64 | 66 | | Kiril Yatsevich | 69 | 54 | 67 | 79 | 75 | 80 | 66 | 59 | 62 | | Aydar Zakarin | 74 | 66 | 66 | 79 | 75 | 70 | 75 | 65 | 70 | | Harry Tanfield | 73 | 59 | 63 | 79 | 74 | 75 | 71 | 66 | 72 | | Szymon Rekita | 72 | 58 | 63 | 79 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 69 | 70 | | Roy Goldstein | 74 | 55 | 61 | 79 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 58 | 61 |
In 2023, the gaps on the final and all-deciding stages were small, with Phinney holding off Wurtz in the GC even though Wurtz took the stage result. This year, Wirtgen has to become the new favorite with the often-discussed TT training this offseason. With Wirtgen unlikely to get gapped on even the most challenging possibilities of stage 2, that makes him the GC favorite alongside the stage favorite here.
Wurtz will still be a major competitor this year, as will Phinney who will need to overperform here if he doesn’t repeat getting some bonus seconds on Stage 2. Zmorka and Mullen are the other two big threats here in the top 5 to force a surprise winner.
The grouping of 80 and 79 level TTers will make this a very exciting race on the final day, especially in the team competition as well as Tinkoff Team – La Datcha, Cedevita and Fastned appear to be the biggest possibilities to take that home.
As noted above, the biggest race here should be between 3 riders – Wurtz, Wirtgen, and Phinney, with Wurtz now on the outside looking in. Wirtgen is the big favorite with such a crucial training. With almost no likelihood to be gapped on stage 2, those extra hours in the wind tunnel set him up to breakthrough the grip lock that Phinney has held on this race. Phinney is obviously still set-up for an awesome race and result for a few reasons. The TT is still very strong, but Phinney should be set-up as one of the best finishers with the combination of sprint, hill, and mountain prowess.
Lots of other storylines to watch here too:
• What will Areruya do in his first point scoring opportunity in PT? [edit: at least for this year. New question: What is I learned my MG history?]
• Can anyone outside the top three favorites truly challenge for the win?
• Will there be enough difference in time gaps on Stage 2 to benefit riders like Eastman, Geoghegan Hart, and Haig (amongst others?)
• In the U25 battle, who will come out on top between Leknessund and Evenepoel
Startlist:
Edited by seancoll on 12-10-2024 01:02
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 12-10-2024 00:24
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World Champion
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Thanks for a great preview sean!
Excited for the season (despite my inactivity - end of uni year!) and this race we are here for all three stages, and hopefully the GC. Manninen and Ganna making their Xero debuts, we have a legitimate favourite for the opening stages and an outsider on Stage 3, Ganna should get some decent GC points if he doesn't fall too far on Stage 2, let's go!!!
What will Areruya do in his first point scoring opportunity in PT?
Come third in the 2021 Tirreno-Adriatico? 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 12-10-2024 03:47
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Tour de France Champion
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Kind of the opposite of starting the season off with a bang for us here. We knew Aranburu couldn't do GC given the time trial, so used him elsewhere. It's all in for AKA on day 1, and then maybe Skjelmose can sneak into a depth GC after the time trial, if we're lucky. Not expecting big scoring here.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| roturn |
Posted on 12-10-2024 08:26
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Team Manager
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Phinney hopefully podiums here. Normally no.2 behind Wirtgen could work. But he needs a rough hill stages as otherwise there are like 2-3 potential time trialists beating him.
The addition of Vansevenant and Bobridge (had not seen it coming him making the list  ) plus rest of the team can hopefully make it tough for the low 70s.
Salas can show what he is capable as he leads couple of TT events as well this season.
Looking forward to the reports and question only is, if Wirtgen wins one or two stages and by how much he wins the GC. |
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| ember |
Posted on 12-10-2024 08:40
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Here we go! Just like last year, no GC ambitions, but we hope for a good hilly stage placing wise. Other than that, it would be cool to see us join breakaways on the first two stages.
Wirtgen is the obvious favourite here. Very curious to see him in action after his training. Think he could very well claim the individual crown this year, and if so, it must start here with a big points haul. |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 12-10-2024 09:45
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Conci, Cosnefroy and Shikai are all in with a chance of scoring and doing pretty well here depending on how tough the decisive stage is. Fingers crossed we can score some solid points. Jakobsen also a very capable sprinter who should put up a decent fight.
Thank you for the preview and looking forward to the first PT race of the season! 
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| knockout |
Posted on 12-10-2024 13:12
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Grand Tour Champion
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This race almost never went particularly good for us no matter what leaders we sent here. I dont think we'll necessarily see such a passive stage 2 with no gaps again but last years race scared me away from sending Lopez. So Foss and Plapp is our double leader duo here that could go a lot of ways. Probably some sort of semi-gaps after the first 60 riders would suit us best so that the pure tt guys get dropped but Areruya, Vansevanant etc dont get a big gap.
Must say I am a bit surprised by the lack of puncheurs in the start list. Definitely many managers with fears after last year and trying with the stage race / tt card here.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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Posted on 21-12-2024 18:58
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 12-10-2024 22:29
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At least we do have an outsider on the list for every stage, with Bol arguably being our most hopeful card to play. GC-wise, Darbellay and Errazkin (who just fails to make the list with 78Hi) are our main hopes, plus maybe one or two TTers who might make the cut even if the hilly stage is a bit more selective than last year.
No top result expected, a Top 20 and some good stage results would do.
Wirtgen now the obvious favourite, but if Phinney wins S2 again he could still take the overall. After all, the TT is just 20km, so I don't expect huge gaps.
@knockout: Last year's result definitely was the reason why I didn't send Schmid, indeed. Even with an unlikely stage win, he'd have zero chances for a good GC finish.
Thanks for the preview, excited to get the PT adventure started!
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 12-10-2024 23:01
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Well, here we go then, straight in with the test of Wirtgen's training abilities - and the best chance of a PT stage race victory this season, I would expect. Podium for the last three years clearly bodes well, and now having the edge in the time trial - hopefully! Really time to start putting an end to the era of Phinney!
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| ember |
Posted on 13-10-2024 05:22
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That is the way to make your comeback! Quite a stage for Assa, congratulations, Sykkel_Freak! Happy with the stage for us as well, Berwick in the breakaway and Peak sneaking into the top 5 in the sprint. Especially Peak is promising for the season, as he will have lots of chances on his own. The only negative here was Valter getting dropped. Seeing how AI has played this before, I fear that makes him a breakaway rider on stage 2 and not a stage contender at the end, but we shall see! |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 13-10-2024 07:12
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First of all thanks for a very nice preview, Sean we came here with several types of riders and three of them who should be top 5 candidates however the race plays out this time. So unless we get hit with some pcm stupidness or bad luck I thought we could make something nice out of this.
In that regard it would help to not have six out of eight riders, including two leaders, dropped in a flat stage to begin the season with. Now I need to hope for Zmorka to hang on in the hilly stage I fear. Let's hope this isn't the story of the whole season for us, because we kind of need some normal stuff happening yo stay in the PT.
Congratulations to Assa on a nice entry to the PT this year had hoped manninen to show what he's worth as well, but that'll be for next time.
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| knockout |
Posted on 13-10-2024 07:54
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Grand Tour Champion
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Nice to get the season going!
Congrats to sykkel, welcome back to PT!
First things first: Nihal Silva joining the sprint and getting a 8th place in a good startlist is promising for the rest of the season. Means i can have sth to look forward in all those sprint stages throughout the season.
Then there is the split: unfortunately only three of my riders made it with Nihal Silva, Jan Polanc and Tobi Foss. Plapp (and Van Niekerk) missing out hurts a lot but Foss being in there with quite a few big name tt guys missing out has the potential to be pretty good for us. Too early to tell.
S2 is crucial, besides id really love to see one of my dropped guys to hoin the break and go for KoM.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 13-10-2024 13:47
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What a debut for Abdul Halil! Really strong sprint from a somewhat poor position. Really impressed by his speed! Mosca in the KoM jersey as well rounds off a perfect start to the season
We don’t have anyone for the GC here, but hoping Gesbert will be involved in the final on the next stage. Would be nice to see Mosca in the break again as well, but suspect he will be on duty for Abdul Halil.
Thanks for the congratulations!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 13-10-2024 14:06
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Well, horrible from AKA to start the year. With sprint randomness as the default and plenty of other sprinter finishing outside the top 10, I'm not gonna overreact yet. But sad to see him near the front all day and then completely lose the wheels when it matters.
Skjelmose missing the split also sucks. Looks like this will be a minimum points race for us.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 13-10-2024 17:46
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Here we go! Curious what Leknessund can do here.
Bummer to see Aleotti finish on the wrong side of that split.
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| jph27 |
Posted on 13-10-2024 21:07
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3rd is a good effort from Kemboi, even if it could have been more with better positioning. Craddock, Fernandes and Mansouri being dropped is an absolute nightmare for us unless the next stage is selective though, as suspect Thomas will be dropped no matter what. No good reason for it as well, just bizarre AI. |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 13-10-2024 21:55
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Pretty meh start for us. Bol once again messed up his timing; I thought he did great to pick Rajovic's wheel, but apparently he was already sprinting. But at least the speed seems to be there, I'm sure he'll get his Top 10s later in the season.
Also, losing Brunel and Darbellay is a real bummer. Bissegger and Rekita are less likely to make the split on S2 than Brunel would've been, so I guess hopes will be on Küng now. We'll see...
Congrats to Sykkel, that Abdul Halil guy keeps surprising me with his not-so-great statline ^^
Thanks for the report getting the season going!
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| ember |
Posted on 14-10-2024 06:26
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Thank you for another fine report, seancoll!
And big congratulations to Xero and jandal. The promoting teams are on fire, also with Vansevenant in second!
Valter with a strong stage, he definitely looked great with his minor attack, the positioning and the sprint itself. Unfortunate no one broke the peloton with an attack just after he forced into one line, as that would probably have seen gaps appear. Good positioning from him going into the sprint, and coming away with a podium finish is a good result.
Also nice to have Berwick in the breakaway, eventhough his companions where a few classes above him, making the KoM points unavailable for him. Curious to see how the GC shapes up with the TT now. The TT takes it all for another season! |
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-10-2024 07:11
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Grand Tour Champion
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Once again very few gaps here. Hard to see whether thats justified or an unfortunate gap setting but not ideal for the race. It might a bit benefitial for my own team though with Foss not having great positioning here. Looks like he might be header for a top15-top20 GC result which is okay i guess.
Congrats jandal, love to see Areruya performing here!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 14-10-2024 07:12
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Another good stage for us. Gesbert shows some form and is highly involved in the final, which is all we could ask for. Mosca definitely the rider of the day, though, getting into the break again and defending his jersey against some tough competition! I guess that means the jersey is his with only an ITT left, which is a very nice start to the season for him
Areruya continues his insane domination from last year, unfortunately also taking yellow away from Abdul Halil, but good to see that he managed to stay with the peloton nonetheless.
Congrats to jandal! |
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