1. Sony - Force India
Olivier is a tiny upgrade over Choi, Benoot has proven his skills tons of times and the newly added TT strength with Cataford and Howson should compensate for the downgrade from Vesely to Kulikovskiy (who i really like).
2. ISA - Hexacta
I trust Caleb Ewan to be great with a great support squad around him. Harrison and Contreras are further quality sprinters. Three cool hilly riders who i trust to be worked nicely to spread them around and generally just really good depth and a manager who has proven countless times to be able to plan this sort of squad.
3. Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Should have promoted so many times already, maybe this is the year? Oomen is great, Bonifazio is better than his managers thinks and Gamper has a chance to really improve his scoring this year. Van Gils and Potocki are great riders who are still u25 eligible. If they had added some okayish tt guys to get a full ttt team, they might have been top favourites for the title.
4. ELCO - ABEA
Excellent depth, a great TTT team to push up their climbers into good GC positions as well. Farantakis is very unproven but should be strong. In general, there are many question marks concerning individual riders but their depth just looks too good to not be in the promotion fight.
5. Indosat Ooooredoooo
Dunbar, Dunbar, Dunbar. Bagioli is also pretty good and if he gets good positioning and AI treatment, he'd be great. I dont like Tenorios stat line but there is still a reasonable chance for a final solid season.
6. Minions
Kinoshita, Ahlstrand, Cattaneo are all big names in the MG lore but all of them are in their decline years. Promotion feels like a now or never situation as they will have to be replaced starting next year. Bjerg and Kalaba are two great assets on top while Vosekalns and Dall'Oste have shown lots of break magic in the past but are nearing retirement as well. The problem is behind them. Very little quality outside of their top 7-8 riders.
7. Tryg - Eni
Demare, U25 eligible Johannessen, Schlegel, Ovsyannikov and Rodenberg is one of my favourite PCT leader setups i've seen in a long while and really should be good enough to promote. But i dont think they are set up for success with the support built around them. The sprint support looks okayish but doesnt accentuate Demares strength on the hills at all. Seibeb will be busy being the only key domestique for three leaders at the same time (i dont rate Honore at all) and Ovsyannikov has absolutely zero help which could crush his season.
8. DK Zalgiris
Kmieliauskas is the future and he will start to deliver nicely already this year. Beniusis is a solid second rider in the tts but its not really understandable why no effort for a ttt team around them was made. Vesely is a reliable sprinter and probably their best scorer this year. Sagan, Kwiatek can contribute at least a bit too.
9. Bralirwa - Cegeka
Its rarely a great sign for immediate success when you have to pay multiple millions for someone to not ride for you this year. Meintjes and Stallaert are keeping this team strong enough to see nothing of the relegation fight. Tesfatsion and Teuns is a solid duo for the hills but the rebuild for the future has only just begun.
10. Specialized
Kasperkiewicz is a strong upgrade on the cobbles but I'm worrying that his disastruous sprint might prevent a proper dominance on the cobbles. Meurisse and Coutinho are in that good but not great tier that can contribute a fair bit but only Barguil is a proper team leader and he has declined for the first time and is now in the big group of fairly similar stage racers where its tough for him to get an edge over others. Dzama also declined and goes from undoubtedly great to a bit of an unknown.
11. Team UBS
One of the best uphill duos of the division in Godoy and Buchmann. Jacobs should be alright but im not convinced with Müller and Perera. A good TTT can help contributing. Solid midtable with potential to rise further up the rankings.
12. McCormick Pro Cycling
Adam Yates is fantastic, Sosa is also a great asset even if i hate that trade - Narvaez is good and really good uphill depth behind them. I just think this team might be a bit weaker than the sum of its part as Yates and Sosa are best in the same kind of races and while one of them (Sosa?) surely will target ToA, i dont think the team will get the best out of both of them.
13. Lotto-Caloi
Some very solid depth but i'm not all too convinced by any of their leaders. Vakoc and Calmejane as well as Liu are the best assets of the team but I'm not sure how well you can play Calmejane if he isnt the leader. With one of their climbing duo and maybe someone like Zingle, they might want to target the Tour of America perhaps?
14. Everesting
I love Stannard, Rodrigues is a great rider to have in PCT and i like having Hayakawa and Hindley there as well but I'm not too convinced in the scoring of the remaining squad members. A bit too dependant on the top two if that doesnt work, they might slide down a bit.
15. Sauber Petronas Racing
I often predicted them right on top of the survival/relegation time but i think Hirschi is the man and he will be massive for them already before the first training. Good depth in the mountains and Einhorn can potentially do a bit better than last year.
16. Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Popo4ever remains the same team it has always been with only a few young additions. If you havent downloaded the current DB, you can open your 2020 DB and have a pretty good idea how the team looks now. Padun remains the slightly overrated star of the team who wishes to be as good as Olivier but actually might be beaten by Godoy while Aniolkowski is the best of the rest.
17. Benetton Bimex Cycling
Rafael Reis has been one of my least favourite leaders in the PCT for a long time so I'm obliged to hate him once again. Powless is great but might suffer from being planned around Reis a bit. Outside of MO/TT races they only have Durbridge and Afewerki and thats about it.
18. Kraftwerk Man Machine
Some really cool riders with Zabel being the face of the team and Masnada is one of my favourite riders but he likely wont be able to repeat his 2023 season without the Jura TTTtrain. Turgis and Walscheid are solid and the climbing depth is okay as well but i'm not sure if their usual ToA strategy will be effective or if they can switch focus.
19. Ekoi - Le Creuset
I really like this team. But its not a good one. This team is built to look good in a "2027 roster preview" picture with many young exciting talents like Lapeira or Vauquelin that wont contribute immediately. Ranaweera, Paret-Peintre, Oliveira and Daniel are very solid but need great planning or a bit of luck to be more than that.
20. Tafjord Kraft
Way too many (really cool!) sprinters, far too little scoring riders elsewhere. I like Dyrnes and Eriksen but i dont think they can carry a team as much as the team needs them.
21. Manada Coyote
Coquard is outstanding but i dont really see a great leadout, McCarthy will surely have some great results but might also disappear at times. I dont see a lot of depth scoring potential.
22. JEWA TIROL
Debesay is a cool rider but has declined. Nikias Arndt is a cool rider but has declined. Paillot is a cool rider but has declined. Fraile is a cool rider but has declined. Twice. I see a pattern here. The top third of the team looks like a team that can survive via depth scoring and the two bottom thirds look like a team that needs some big scorers.
23. Llapi-Vita
It's never a good sign when your second best rider (Borges) is the small budget version of your best rider (Kelderman) and i dont trust either of them to be great enough. I love Chiarello but I'm also pretty sure that the PCT is the least suited division for him at this point: Not good enough to ride from the front and not bad enough to do his usual third week GT heroics. I wouldnt be surprised if Kamberaj is the teams best scorer.
24. Podium Ambition
"Podium" "Ambition", one of the weekest PCT teams we've seen in a decade on par with the 2015 double punch of Eddie Stobart and Sauber.
1. King Power
I love the skill set of Gidich, McNulty is a fantastic asset, Hsu is a sprinter with lots of upside and the TTT with Herregodts and Mano as individual scorer is great. Great depth from top to bottom and for every single race there is. I like this team a ton.
2. EA Vesuvio
Wirtgen is an absolute beast and possibly the second best individual scorer behind Herklotz. Mohoric might not be the most versatile puncheur but he is very strong in the pure hilly races. A great TTT team. I dont trust Spengler and Van der Lijke as declined a bit but this is a fantastic team throughout. 2nd last year, 2nd again this year?
3. Evonik - ELKO
This team sucks. Slightly better team than last season due to better depth - notably on the previously atrocious terrains but can Polanc be the third big leader once again?
4. Gazelle
Dombrowski might be good enough for GT contention with the right startlist for a more reasonable wage than other contenders. Lutsenko great as ever and outstanding depth for all sorts of different mountain/hill/stage races. Notably Leknessund who is still U25 eligible and could be up for a fantastic season. Teunisssen was surprisingly good last season as well.
5. Polar
Bernal can be outstanding with the right schedule. Latour, Philipsen, Mullen will all be great. Even without a surprise GT victory, there is a lot of things that can go right for this team.
6. Team Puma - SAP
Herklotz, most dominant rider in the DB, and by far the single one rider that I'd love to not see against me anywhere near my two top stars. Kanter is a good sprinter and behind them there are lots of riders with good upside but i miss one more big star to have a proper shot at another title opportunity.
7. Rabobank
Grosu cosplaying as Van Stayen, Gerts cosplaying as Greg Van Avermaet, Formolo and Chamoussin filling the weaker Lopez/stronger Blums mold : i really love the rider types they have leading them. Evenepoel also a fantastic rider already unmaxed. Van Poppel is a pretty good sprinter as well w. I see a ton of upside in this team.
8. Oxxo - Frisby
Higuita, Zmorka, Eastman, Halvorsen, Aular is a fantastic group of leaders. Some good upside riders beind him with guys like Lopez Nolasco or the fantastic TTT train, maybe i'm even underrating them a bit because they are missing that one outstanding scorer.
9. Fastned
Phinney and Wellens dont need to be presented to anyone as they should be well known by know and even with another decline, Phinney is still world class. Vansevenant is really good and i also like Van Hooydonck a lot as a great cobbler on a reasonable wage. Lots of positives, they should be save from relegating.
10. cycleYorkshire
A bit under my radar, cycleYorkshire has developed into a really solid team with Morton, Yates and Cullaigh as big leaders. Good depth behind them with riders that have a bit of upside but not necessarily a ton of "guaranteed scoring".
11. Aker - MOT
Huge revamp after a fairly surprising PT title. Valter, Groenewegen and Anderberg are great. Novak, Peak, SKA, Johannessen and a couple other guys are really cool and have a lot of upside. There is sth for almost every race that is not dominated by a TT even when its obviously a transition years.
12. Moser - Sygic
Kudus and Gaviria is an amazing Big 2. Hirt a third good rider. I dont particularly like the rest of the rest of the roster.
13. Xero Racing
Areruya better not be too good, Manninen is great, Pidcock is amazing, Ganna has a history of great performances even if his planning this year might be a bit wacky. I love this squad, this is gonna be a possible title contender in a couple of years but i think they need at least one more year to get there.
14. Assa Abloy
The sprinter setup is outstanding. Wisniowski will also be really good despite the first decline. Not a great setup for the mountains and the hills but this team reminds me a bit to the early Evonik teams.
15. Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Per remains a beast. Besind him there are two solid climbers, two solid sprinters, one solid hybrid puncheur. Outside of Per, this isnt a flashy roster in any way but its a pretty decent one that might be a bit too reliant on GT stage hunting / top 5 GC hunting which can be a bit random.
16. Cedevita
I underrated them last year, i might underrate them this year again. Pogacar and Geoghegan Hart is a strong stage race duo and there is a strong TTT lineup. I love Siric but he may still be one year away from worldclass but the rest of the team is lacking a bit and the number of unmaxed riders leads to some good riders missing out on more races (Siric).
17. Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
If you are looking for a team that i constantly underrate, it's this one. Every year, i look at this roster and think they arent thaat good because i see too many flaws with their leaders. Somehow they finished 7th last year and i probably should put them a bit closer to that but also Skujins and Kamyshev could suffer a fair bit from their first declines.
18. Grieg-Maersk
Pedersen remains a beast on the cobbles who can only benefit from Wisniowskis decline. Würtz is great but could suffer ever so slightly from Wirtgen training. I would love to see some proper threat for the mountains or hills but all i'm seeing is a few breakaway threats like Roman.
19. MOL Cycling Team
It's a great mountain setup with Haig, Amezawa, Ardila and Almeida. Of those Amezawa and Ardila can do well in the hybrid hills too but other than that Altur is the only scorer. I miss the upside scorers elsewhere and when Haig hits an unfortunate GT startlist, i sense some trouble.
20. Lidl Cycling
De Bie is obviously great, Kemboi is everyones darling but behind them there is only depth and not that much in terms of sure scorer. As always they have a bit for everything but i think i'm missing a bit of a special X factor. In the end, the roster might simply be a bit too larget to be great.
21. ZARA - Irizar
GT winner Shikai is the star signing of the team and links up for the Asian super stage racer combo wth Choi. Both okay, but both not outstanding. Jakobsen and Thijssen are really cool but probably also not the huge scorers so i'm missing the big leader that can score over 1000 points for them. THere is upside here with riders like Conci or Cosnefroy but i'm not sold on this one.
22. Jura GIANTS
The TTT team is the star of the team with Schmid the best indiviudal rider. Plenty of good riders but i struggle to see the great scorer that they probably need to stay up. Certainly hurts a ton that they missed out on the Wisniowski mess. Plus side, they are easily the top favourite to win win the 2025 PCT season if they indeed relegate but i'm also prone to underrate strong TTT teams so maybe they can surprise me this year. If they stay up, its probably because Groves and Bol convince in the GT sprints.
Edited by knockout on 11-10-2024 09:30
I pretty much agree to your description of my team, but as long as we finish second best of the promoted teams the season is a success as it brings us another year in PCT to further improve our 2027 roster. And I'm rather hopeful the planning for this season could work out as we managed to have nearly no races without any half-decent leader (if only Hodeg for the sprint roulette).
Because Sosa is riding ToA there are suitable race days for both Yates and Sosa. Yates has one race I don't love but PTHC bands were set. But riding ToA comes with a points discount anyway as you note. Still I am fine with 13th, we don't have a lot of ambition this year.
Seems like the top 6 or 7 is pretty consistent across all previews but more disagreement in the 10 to 20 range. How Ovsyannikov will do seems like a regular topic of conversation.
There was an attempt Ä„Ä„Ä„Ä„Ä„ Indonesian duo was meant to shore up TTT a little bit, but well, when you get a chance to bring the correct flag home, ya gotta take it
As stated in the other thread: Our one and only goal this year is to survive. We have put a lot of wage budget into future riders, that won't bring us points now. As a result we were only able to sign old declining riders in hope to get enough points, to survive this year.
Next year we would be able to sign much better riders, but therefore we need to stay in PCT.
Will be an interesting year!
20. Lidl Cycling
De Bie is obviously great, Kemboi is everyones darling but behind them there is only depth and not that much in terms of sure scorer. As always they have a bit for everything but i think i'm missing a bit of a special X factor. In the end, the roster might simply be a bit too larget to be great.
I don't disagree with the ranking, and to be honest I don't think De Bie is that great - he wasn't particularly amazing last season and has declined since. Would have ideally sold him and used the money to train vdP, but unfortunately that didn't work out.
Hopefully the likes of Faglum Karlsson, Prado, Craddock, Fernandes and the hill squad can contribute some useful points but expecting this season to be a bit of a struggle. This season feels like a necessary step on the process to building a better roster in long run, so relegation may actually be a useful opportunity for a reset. Obviously would be better avoided, but not holding out too much hope!
Well, another PT prediction having us finish last, which sadly can't be excluded. Don't see why we should be favourites for the 2025 PCT title then as the worst relegated team, though ^^
Schmid, Theuns and the sprinters will likely make or break the season. The rest should get good depth points, but as you say, I clearly lack a 1000+ points scorer. Ganna or even more so Wisniowski should have taken this role... Alas, looks like some rebuilding and training incoming for us next offseason.
Think that's a fair assessment and exactly where I'm hoping to be at the end of the season. You see the gameplan. Hope Per can continue to excel and have enough pieces behind him scoring bits and pieces to keep us above water.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Well, another PT prediction having us finish last, which sadly can't be excluded. Don't see why we should be favourites for the 2025 PCT title then as the worst relegated team, though ^^
The team with better survival chances is not automatically the one with an easier path to a dominant PCT team. For your team i think you can keep your core together very well after renewals wage cuts to Groves and Christen, dropping a few declining guys like Paprstka or Theuns and you probably are already very close to the PCT salary cap.
Then you have a fantastic base with your TTT team (which is arguably more valuable to you in PCT than in PT right now at the level where it currently is), two very fitting stage racers, two very nice sprinters and Schmid. Schmid and Groves are still training eligible and have a great base for it so that training can push them to the next level. Then you can think about possibly flipping guys like Szarka or Rohendi for a Theuns replacement or sth like that depending on where exactly your cap situation stands and what opportunities there are.
No matter what, this looks like a team that will be able to bounce back to PT immediately without relying on external moves to adjust to PCT.
Contrast that with a team like Carlsberg who imo look a fair bit stronger for this season but dont have that obvious path towards the PCT cap. Galta and Kragh Andersen are declining and could be likely cuts in case of relegation. But those are not yet enough to make PCT cap. Then Skjelmose maxes, Aranburu was trained and both of them will demand a fair increase. So some costly cuts (/sales) have to be made, possibly including someone like Carthy (or more) depending on several things like the new OVR formula and how well renewals work out.
Aranburu and Walls are also the training options for next year and i dont really like either of them for further training all too much. Per training is also possible but his demands after that might be too high as well.
So in this example, Carlsberg has a better chance at survival but if you both happen to relegate, i would rate you higher for the PCT title next year. At least until we see what both of you are planning to do in transfers.
So in this example, Carlsberg has a better chance at survival but if you both happen to relegate, i would rate you higher for the PCT title next year. At least until we see what both of you are planning to do in transfers.
I agree with this completely actually. If I relegate this year, I'm in a position where I definitely have to swap into another leader that's lower wage and trainable, and that is not an easy task. Like you, I don't see Aranburu or Walls as training options going forward, so I would be in a situation where I have to cut a lot of my roster for cap and don't have an obvious outlet of what to do with the funds, with Skjelmose not yet training eligible.
I actually think I had a much more confident plan of what to do if I relegated last year. I would have sold off assets and invested in Kamna. But now I've sold Kamna, so that's off the table.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
