I really like your goals. Uppsala will be very tough, but all five can potentially be reached with some luck.
I think you'll achieve success in Monterrey and either Olympia or La Tropicale Amissa Bongo, leaving you with two or three goals in the bag end-of-season, depending on the final team standings.
@Caspi I was really hoping when I sent in my goals that I could catch some teams off guard in Uppsala if people didn't notice the parcours change. I think that I've missed the mark there, but we shall see. It's unlikely for a win, but I should still be able to get some top results. Plus, I knew my win goal would be the least likely of my race goals, as I think the others are all relatively achievable.
@TheManxMissile Oh I'm ready for the frustrations. I've avoided a lot of uphills, but you can't avoid them all so hoping to just get a few breakaway appearances TTT successes in the other races I had to fill the calendar with. Otherwise, I feel like this was worth the risk this year. Nothing wrong with being a mid-table team, at least because I think I've avoided the bottom with this strategy.
@DarkWolf I think sprint will definitely matter, especially if you're planning on bringing Coquard (please don't). I knew it was a huge risk going for this one, but I think the PR will make more of a difference than last year even. Given there's no long ITT, it should mostly be sprinters with PRL stats at the top, followed by the specialists would be my guess. I'm totally fine if we both find success.
This endeavor is a new one for us this year, with nothing other than the a year of experience under our belt. As I indicated in my "semi-lazy, semi-flawed" preview, I think this prediction is very aggressive, but I do feel achievable. Even if the results come out a few hundred points below, we think this team is set up for success!
Time Trial Specialists
Name
2023 Points
Projected Points
Atsushi Oka
170
134
Faycal Hamza
196
181
Julian Cardona
80
176
Similo Nyoni
10
175
The point totals here rely on a few assumptions - 1) Our top 5 TTTers are the first 5 to cross the line in our TTT races; 2) Our TTT strategy from 2023 holds strong; 3) Unnecessary splits don't hurt us on flat stages. Just like last season, we are hoping for major point hauls in a couple of TT specific races - Olympia's Tour, Herald Sun Tour, C1+C2 TTT classics, Post Danmark Rundt, and La Tropicale Amissa Bongo. While we haven't predicted quite the success we had last year there, we do think those will be major factors for us and be the determining factor of the season.
Sprinters
Name
2023 Points
Projected Points
German Nicolas Tivani
182
208
Luke Keough
170
312
Alex Frame
40
134
Keough is our predicted top scorer, and he better be for the fee we paid this year. Keough's scoring relies on races like Uppsala Classic, Baltic Chain Tour, and La Tropicale Amissa Bongo more than anywhere else. His combination of sprint and prologue needs to carry him through this year. Tivani also sees an increase this year based on race allocation. He will see a huge number of flat classics and even just averaging 15th in a C1/HC field and 7th in C2 fields should bring him an increased total. A win or two somewhere doesn't seem out of the question. Frame also looks for GC results in our prologue races and an occasional sprint point.
Cobblers
Name
2023 Points
Projected Points
German Anibal Orue
51
154
Jimmy Muhindo
16
22
Chequan Richardson
42
89
Robert Bush
109
5
Leandro Marcos
90
1
With only Richardson competing in CT last season and the SEE Turtles completely avoiding anything that even looks like a cobble, we had no idea what should happen here. Still, we are hoping that Orue and Richardson mainly get depth results - somewhere 10-15th by making the final group in most races and occasionally breaking through otherwise. With no finishing points, Marcos, Bush and Muhindo won't rack up points much, but maybe with some even weaker CT cobble fields they'll earn more than expected.
Domestiques
Name
2023 Points
Projected Points
Kashyapa Siriwardena
33
16
Ahmad Arissol
9
0
Bryan Raul Obando
3
0
Harold Martin Lopez
1
0
Joshua Kelly
88
60
Franklin Joel Revelo
--
0
Finn Fisher-Black
7
10
Magnus Sheffield
--
5
Kelly has to sit here as a domestique, but major points are expected due to the TTT. Siriwardena also expects to benefit from the TTT setup and find some lower level GC results throughout the season when they can figure out not to lose time in the mountains - like in Tour de Vineyards last year. No major expectations for our other domestiques, but hopefully they score in a breakaway or manage a nice result somewhere.
Official Total Prediction: 1722 points
It would take a fantastic season to hit this prediction, but we think we can find the points to at least challenge this. The increase challenge of TTers in the division will certainly be a hurdle, but we're ready to face it.
---
Many thanks to those who inspired this post
Sprinting points might be a bit too much indeed, but on the other hand sprinters only need one result above their level in a race like HC/C1 and can get there quickly. And if there is one department where riders can punch above their level, it's definitely this one. I hope FFB does get the 10 points you would like from him
We open our season on the first day of the season in Australia for the Down Under Classic. We're putting our hopes in Tivani who performed very well against strong PCT competition in the Tour of America last year. A Top 15 is our expectation and given how sprints appear to function, we think this is reasonable even though Tivani sits far down the list of expected sprinters. We also expect to get in the breakaways, even if they are short lived due to stage length. Muhindo, Orue, and Obando all like to find their way to the breakaway. A number of our developing riders also appear here, including Fisher-Black on loan. We had to let him compete close to home.
Nakhon Ratchasima Trophy - C2
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
FG
German Anibal Orue
69
50
64
77
70
53
58
78
Jimmy Muhindo
74
58
67
74
71
68
64
76
Leandro Marcos
73
61
72
69
63
64
68
72
Finn Fisher-Black
64
63
64
66
71
60
71
69
Harold Martin Lopez
63
71
68
67
69
62
64
60
Franklin Joel Revelo
68
68
69
67
68
60
64
65
German Nicolas Tivano
70
63
67
68
78
77
78
72
Bryan Raul Obando
63
71
69
66
69
60
62
74
Well, well, look again! It's the exact same team for another flat classic. A much longer race this time, we should be much better equipped to managed a decent breakaway attempt as we expect not to have the strongest sprinter of the group with Tivani although he does manage a long race well. This race went to the breakaway last season, so whether we just hope to put a rider or two there with Tivani a lower tier sprinter. We budgeted a 5th place here which is likely fair too bold, but very achievable.
Our full schedule can be found at the beginning of our HQ and we're excited to try some different races this year. As we are able, we'll try to share our expectations ahead of time, but our original expectations could really be blown out of the water (in a good or bad way) very quickly.
A rough start to the season where our likely sprinter Tivani was never pictured and didn't bother to even sprint. We knew this was a risk with such a deep sprint field and on a short course. Muhindo is seen above fighting as an attacker in the final km to bring us 22nd place. Revelo tried to find the break, but after missing the first move couldn't make a difference
Nakhon Ratchasima Trophy - C2
Well, well, look again! It's the exact same team for another flat classic. But a HUGELY different result! Franklin Joel Revelo earns the team's first classic win in history. Revelo made sure to find the breakaway alongside Obando. Obando realized Revelo had the better legs and worked most of the day to ensure the breakaway wasn't caught. What a sprint to find his way through his breakaway companions and land atop the podium!
Points
Race
Projected Points
Earned Points
Down Under Classic
12
5
Nakhon Ratchasima Trophy
23
50
Total
37
55 (+18)
Always great to end a month higher than projected, especially on two sprint races. Looking forward to February!
A very big February for the SEE Turtles, with a number of different opportunities - including a very important test at the Isle of Man TTT. One of our most packed months across the calendar will make this crucial.
Gent-Wevelgem - C2
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Chequan Richardson
71
61
67
63
68
68
64
78
60
61
75
66
63
Jimmy Muhindo
74
58
67
65
74
71
68
75
68
64
76
65
65
Leandro Marcos
73
61
72
62
69
63
67
73
64
68
72
63
64
German Anibal Orue
69
50
64
64
77
70
56
78
53
58
78
73
68
Robert Bush
71
60
60
59
70
68
66
75
68
68
63
71
59
Ahmad Arissol
73
65
70
71
68
71
69
71
61
66
75
69
70
Magnus Sheffield
69
64
67
70
66
71
69
71
65
68
72
72
68
Franklin Joel Revelo
68
68
69
57
67
68
65
58
60
64
65
69
62
Our first cobbled race in SEE Turtles history sees a team that is likely to be found again and again on the bumpy terrain. Richardson and Orue are the main hopes here to pull through in a small group. We never expect the win in a cobbled race, but the goal is to show ourselves strongly. Just an overall prediction for 13 points here, but we think that this could be matched for sure in a variety of ways.
Isle of Man TTT - C1
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Julian Cardona
73
64
63
77
72
74
68
62
64
67
62
65
77
Similo Nyoni
69
56
62
77
67
72
69
52
70
68
71
64
77
Ahmad Arissol
73
65
70
71
68
71
69
71
61
66
75
69
70
Magnus Sheffield
69
64
67
70
66
71
69
71
65
68
72
72
68
Faycal Hamza
74
52
63
76
74
73
70
50
56
68
69
63
79
Atsushi Oka
73
65
67
74
71
72
73
64
76
76
67
64
79
Joshua Kelly
73
66
72
74
69
73
60
60
71
72
72
62
76
Kashyapa Siriwardena
67
74
73
72
71
73
72
56
58
68
74
65
72
After a few sprints and a cobbled race, the SEE Turtles are finally ready to hit the race against the clock - our favorite discipline. We believe our lineup has improved over last year, but only time will tell. Given the depth at PCT and CT, preseason expectations were an 8th place which we think will be around where we finish. We hope the TTT plan holds strong again this year, or it could be a long year.
GP Herning- C2
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Chequan Richardson
71
61
67
63
68
68
64
78
60
61
75
66
63
Jimmy Muhindo
74
58
67
65
74
71
68
75
68
64
76
65
65
Leandro Marcos
73
61
72
62
69
63
67
73
64
68
72
63
64
German Anibal Orue
69
50
64
64
77
70
56
78
53
58
78
73
68
Robert Bush
71
60
60
59
70
68
66
75
68
68
63
71
59
Ahmad Arissol
73
65
70
71
68
71
69
71
61
66
75
69
70
Magnus Sheffield
69
64
67
70
66
71
69
71
65
68
72
72
68
Franklin Joel Revelo
68
68
69
57
67
68
65
58
60
64
65
69
62
We said you should expect to see similar lineups at the cobbled races and this is no exception. Richardson has a 10th and 11th place at this race before while Orue hasn't found that same success. Marcos also has a good past result. There's enough cobbled sectors that we think our team strength can really keep us to the front of the race. Much better past experience and belief in our riders lead us to expect 43 points combined if things can go well.
Volta a Catalunya - C2
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Similo Nyoni
69
56
62
77
67
72
69
52
70
68
71
64
77
Ahmad Arissol
73
65
70
71
68
71
69
71
61
66
75
69
70
Alex Frame
71
50
62
69
69
74
72
62
77
76
52
68
79
Magnus Sheffield
69
64
67
70
66
71
69
71
65
68
72
72
68
Joshua Kelly
73
66
72
74
69
73
60
60
71
72
72
62
76
Harold Martin Lopez
63
71
68
66
67
69
67
58
62
64
60
62
64
Bryan Raul Obando
63
71
69
68
66
69
71
51
60
62
74
64
69
Kashyapa Siriwardena
67
74
73
72
71
73
72
56
58
68
74
65
72
In planning, we were excited to see another TTT present, but this one simply cannot earn a full TTT squad. Likely not strong enough to beat the lot, it should still represent well. Still, we hope to come away with a measly 5 points from the 6 stages. Siriwardena could find his way to a surprise GC result through a mountain break, and almost every rider should be able to find success in a breakaway of some type. Frame should serve as an outside sprint threat and potentially contribute that way as well.
Circulo de Juarez - HC
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Luke Keough
72
59
61
57
65
71
71
58
78
77
62
74
79
German Nicolas Tivani
70
63
67
63
68
78
76
56
77
78
72
68
72
Joshua Kelly
73
66
72
74
69
73
60
60
71
72
72
62
76
Harold Martin Lopez
63
71
68
66
67
69
67
58
62
64
60
62
64
Franklin Joel Revelo
68
68
69
57
67
68
65
58
60
64
65
69
62
Bryan Raul Obando
63
71
69
68
66
69
71
51
60
62
74
64
69
Finn Fisher-Black
64
63
64
64
66
71
63
60
60
71
69
67
74
Kashyapa Siriwardena
67
74
73
72
71
73
72
56
58
68
74
65
72
This year, management decided that investment in HC races was important for the future of the team which brings us between our two home countries. The first of only a few races this year where Keough and Tivani team up, we aren't sure which one will take the primary sprints. Hopefully both can earn some sort of bonus throughout the race to push themselves into low GC positions while a few stage results of some type would be nice The rest of the team is set-up to find some breakaways and keep sponsors entertained. 35 points is a hopeful prediction - could really benefit well or end up a whopping zero if we fail to compete in the sprints.
Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne - C1
Nat.
Name
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
Chequan Richardson
71
61
67
63
68
68
64
78
60
61
75
66
63
Julian Cardona
73
64
63
77
72
74
68
62
64
67
62
65
77
Jimmy Muhindo
74
58
67
65
74
71
68
75
68
64
76
65
65
Leandro Marcos
73
61
72
62
69
63
67
73
64
68
72
63
64
German Anibal Orue
69
50
64
64
77
70
56
78
53
58
78
73
68
Robert Bush
71
60
60
59
70
68
66
75
68
68
63
71
59
Ahmad Arissol
73
65
70
71
68
71
69
71
61
66
75
69
70
Magnus Sheffield
69
64
67
70
66
71
69
71
65
68
72
72
68
A slight change of line-up for KBK as Revelo needs to earn experience in Juarez as opposed to Belgium. Just 13 points expected here if Richardson and Orue can find themselves into a reduced group of some type. Doesn't need to be a major result, but enough consistency to stay near the front. Maybe one of the others will spring an attack and force weaker teams to battle.
Our full schedule can be found at the beginning of our HQ and we're excited to try some different races this year. As we are able, we'll try to share our expectations ahead of time, but our original expectations could really be blown out of the water (in a good or bad way) very quickly.
What an excellent finish to January that was. A truly historic moment for a team that did not look set to pick up any significant palmarès this year. I'm interested to see whether the team can cobble anything together on the paves but it may very well be a lean February for you unless some more breakaway magic occurs.
A bit of a different style review for February, because there really aren't that many positive photos of us to highlight across a much bigger month for the team.
Isle of Man TTT - C1
Isle of Man TTT has to be the main highlight of the month with a very strong 6th place on the day. Only 15 seconds different between the front and us in 6th also shows us that we've strengthened this area as expected - but others have also invested in this area. Still, this goes exactly to plan and that shows us that we made good choices in some capacity. Failure here would have sent us into a complete spiral
Remaining Races
All remaining races of the month gave us negative points compared to our expectations, although manageable numbers. We started our cobble campaigns and Muhindo is showing himself as a great addition. Orue is struggling alongside Richardson compared to expectations, but Orue is at least still making some smaller groups.
We knew that Catalunya would be a disaster from the second we picked our races and couldn't put the full TTT team there. On the other hand, we didn't expect Juarez to be quite as hard as it was and that we would COMPLETELY miss the 5 breakaway days. That probably has to be the biggest disappoint where some KOM or sprint bonus points would have made a huge difference in the GC. Keough invisible.
Points
Race
Projected Points
Earned Points
Gent-Wevelgem
13
1
Isle of Man TTT
25
35
GP Herning
43
22
Volta a Catalunya
5
3
Circulo de Juarez
35
5
Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
13
1
Total
134
67 (-67)
February wasn't supposed to be a big month for us in terms of points, but we still underperformed and in a lot of race days. Hopefully March allows us to turn that around, but as long as we nickel and dime until May - we should be okay.
Edit: Some recalculations show us we were even worse than we originally thought. Still same thoughts for us regardless of our inability to read the Point Scales correctly.
Edited by seancoll on 20-11-2024 22:43
Not a good month for you, but Isle of Man shows that things can still go your way. To me, it feels like your tactics is balancing on a knife edge. The turtles might underperform, or you could hit the jackpot with a little luck in the right races
My worry is the sprint department, that 654 seems like a lot of expected points for the 3 sprinters. 
