In the wait for the upcoming seasons, I thought it might be time to get started on the 2024 Predictions thread. Maybe more of a personal thing, but this was a much better exercise for me than looking at the DB and expecting stats to somehow have changed from the last time I opened the excel.
To start, we have a "semi-lazy, semi-flawed" prediction for CT. It's mostly vibes based, comparing rider stats and expectations but without any numerical component.
Position
Team
Rationale
1
Newton Foundation p/b Zwift
It's almost impossible not to see Newton Foundation p/b Zwift at the top of the CT standings this year. Jorgenson should be the favorite in every race he enters and with the right planning, should have a Chiarello-esque season if not better. Elosegui found great success last year too and might be the 2nd best signing of a CT team this season. Elosegui should remain a top 15 point scorer. The remaining GC riders of JP Lopez, Madrazo and Pronskiy are strong enough to earn surprise results by themselves. The two remaining important pieces are Viennet and Welten. Viennet should be a 200+ scorer this season with how important TTs are in the CT calendar and Welten's combination of sprint and cobbles should allow him to take some good results in a lessened cobble field.
2
Team Würth MODYF
Zepuntke. This is the best individual signing in the division this year and my pick for the individual standings win in CT. Maybe a stretch, but I think 800 points should not be out of the question. Nareklishvili should also be grabbing major cobble points in C2 races with some additional opportunities in C1. Predatsch and Campanaerts will lead a strong TT squad that should amass good results throughout the season and support Vanhoucke's GC potential at the right races. In the hills Guerreiro and Mager should score points, too - with Guerreiro's sprint a great attribute in more than a few C2 classics. Finally, Willwohl should handle most of the sprinting duties with Reinhardt also likely to grab points as well.
3
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
While last season didn't go exactly to plan, expectations are still high here in 2024. Arensman and Lunke should be a fantastic duo in the high mountains, especially in TTT heavy stage races. Knotten and Van Moer are also TT powerhouses with huge scoring potential in this calendar. Barbier appears to have the right combination of attributes for some surprise sprint results, while Hvideberg is also ready to succeed in some hilly cobbled classics. In a bright spot compared to 2023, the combination of Skjerping and Koretzky should be a much more efficient point scoring group in the hilly stages.
4
SEE Turtles
Looking across the division, last year I didn’t back myself, but I have to this year. With a strong reliance on the TTT, the Turtles are bolstered the lineup there even more. This is especially true in the prologue where points are plentiful and underrated. A fully dedicated cobble squad should also provide scoring opportunities in a division that is generally neglecting that area.Tivani should continue to be an overperformer in the sprints if the Turtles management understands sprints correctly. Preliminary aggressive estimations put point totals over 1700 - probably far too generous, but even a performance around 1300 should cement the Turtles near this position.
5
Euskotren - Pays Basque
It's the attention to physical stats that given Euskotren - Pays Basque the nod for 5th. Itturia is well-prepared for consistent C2 results, especially when sent with a TTT. A number of punchy sprint options should also provide classics results to push this team to the top. Hofstetter will need to make the difference though in sprint/cobbled classics - without success this prediction changes a lot. He and Politt will make the difference for this group. Probably one of the more aggressive predictions in the list, there's just a belief things will work out.
6
Trans Looney Tunes
A very deep cobble squad leads the way for Trans Looney Tunes. Some team attacks, good positioning, and overall depth could push them forward into the top of the standings. A lack of traditional GC scoring could be a challenge, but a strong TTT should minimize some of those concerns. Nareklishvili's planning will be crucial, alongside Korosec. Wish this team had slightly better sprinting options to move up the rankings.
7
Spark Team NZ
Most years acquiring George Bennett would cause automatic domination at the CT level, but this simply isn't that year. Still Bennett should be able to avoid Jorgenson most of the year if he can target the races least impacted by TTs. Finding the right schedule is the determining factor here. Scott should be a great sprinter at this level and Joel Yates should be able to find the success that he couldn't last year in hill classics. Beltran will be another X factor - does he have the energy left to make the difference. Lemus Davila is the final piece to consider - can he find the races to succeed without being pushed down the leaderboard due to heavy GC competition this year.
8
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
Nur Aiman jumps in as the new star of this team in the sprints, while Page should actually score more points in our opinion. Still, 2 great sprint options should be able to cover most of the calendar for good opportunities. Kozhatayev should be a major contributor, but again, the question is whether they can sneak into upset results with the major competition to face. Nikiema should lead a hill squad and provide good finishing as well. TTT has majorly improved this year and Schomber is an ever-exciting man in the prologues.
9
Genii Hyundai N Cycling
It feels wrong to drop Genii this far down this list, but there's a few questions here. How well can Barta, Ulysbayev and Ahmad Zamri actually handle GC results? Can Jensen match his 2023 scoring potential? Is the cobble squad good enough to get top results or just depth? TTTs should be a major strength here. There's no major weakness here, as Genii is probably a top 10 team in every individual terrain, except pure sprints. It's just a question whether there will be top results to carry alongside the depth.
10
Zain - Omantel
What can Carapaz do? That's the question and has been the question for a while if I understand correctly. A fantastic leader, I'm just not sure he will beat Bennett and Jorgenson which puts him in a tough position. He should be good enough for decent results, but if the top points don't come and his challenges continue this could be a tough season. Borisavljevic is stuck without a 4th and 5th committed member of TTTs, so the other scoring must come from Minali. Consistency in the sprints could make the difference here. Saber is back again, too - how much does he have left in the tank.
11
Cervelo Test Team
Cervelo looks like the best overall team in hilly races. Houle should compete for wins in hill classics that end in a sprint. Moscon should crush hill classics that end on short kickers. Waeytens is a great supporter alongisde Watson, McCormick and Zordan. But how many points are truly in the schedule for the hill classics and how consistent can they be. Outside the hills, Preidler should hold their own in the mountains, but they'll never be among the top favorites.
12
Duvel-Tsingtao
Duvel-Tsingtao should find their major successes in the sprints and cobbles. Zhao has a few races that are immediately suited for him which could be a difference maker. Smith has had challenges over the year with consistency so hopefully he turns it around here. Lyu should be strong as well, but just how strong is the question. The cobble squad of Van Lerberghe and Roosen should be highlights. Akhmaevi and Cheung should also keep ITT results flowing with good planning.
13
Ethiopian Airlines
Ethiopian Airlines might struggle in the same way as Cervelo. Some great hill classics riders with Vendrame and Bystrom to leave the way. Gibbons is a strong sprinter and should muster strong results at this level. Penasa and Berhane leave us the question marks. Will they be able to compete at the highest level - Penasa should be able to hold onto Bennett at the right races, but Berhane is past his prime.
14
Glanbia
Kennett is the star of this team and could be a top 5 point scorer in the division if things go right. He's got the right combination of energy, sprint, and prologue to make a huge impact on the division. But that's key to success. Boswell is key #2 with a strong need for hilly classics results. The Glanbia TTT grouping is key#3. It looks a tiny bit weaker than normal and in an even tougher TTT crowd, that might not be enough. There's upside here, but relegation hit Glanbia hard.
15
Babymetal
Riabushenko must be considered the leader here. Some great sprint results and the capability to handle the tougher stages should make him a top 5 sprinter in the division rankings. Arashiro should get some occasionally classics and breakaway results, while the questions come to the GC grouping. Raileanu should be a good piece alongside Petelin, those two will have an uphill fight to climb most of the season.
16
Euskadi-Murias
It's painful to put Euskadi-Murias here with more than a few star riders, but it's unclear how they'll come together. Carsi should be a top sprinter, but there's a few question marks as to whether he'll be expected to lead most of the sprint fields and get overtaken. Sterbini should take ITT results, but has no TTT to back him up. Munoz is another Top 5/Top 10 GC threat at the C2 level, but success will be dependent on scheduling. Ringheim should find success at cobble races, but very little support is left for him there too.
17
Hilcona Racing Team
This season will rely on two riders - Eiking and Kreiger. Both should be major successes in their areas, but that's a lot to rely on. Eiking has the fewest racedays of anyone in the division and faces some challenges as the likely favorite in his races. Havik should earn points in cobble races, but will he make the final groups to utilize his sprint capabilities.
18
Air New Zealand- Alfa Romeo
Fabbro should be an expected leader and do well again, but the CT GC quality is just too high this year to expect an improvement on results. Scully is the best sprinter left, but the physical stats might let him down. Lilovski and Kanepejs could be surprise stars, but that's too tough to expect. Just missing the star power to expect any major, major results.
Will likely attempt some "semi-lazy, semi-flawed" predictions for PCT and PT later, but excited to see folks' expectations for the season.
First of all thanks to sean for pulling the prediction season off!
After really sucking with last year’s approach I decided to try another approach this year. I’ll start with the CT, the other two divisions will follow in the next days.
KBs Lazy CT Prediction
Position
Team
Thoughts
1
Newton Foundation p/b Zwift
No surprise at the top, but if you take the division’s best all-round stage racer, add some of the best climbers, one of the best TTT units, a top 3 TTer and a decent sprinter and you simply get the clear favourite for the division title.
2
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
They were one of the top favourites last season and lost their top rider, but they got a decent enough replacement with Koretzky and even more importantly their additions should prove crucial to promotion this year. Their TTT unit now has the depth to actually survive a TTT, they still have 2 of the top 3 TTers and added a second all-round stage racer with Arensman. This just has to be enough quality.
3
Simba Cement – Tanga Fresh
I’m actually a bit surprised to see them this high up myself, but if they get the sprint train for Zariff working he should be the best sprinter in the division. They also have a decent stage racer, a decent TTT unit, a second sprinter with Page and the wildcard that is Nils Schomber. If they find enough prologues to take full advantage of him in addition to their sprinters this could actually be enough for promotion. If they fail with one or both of this tasks, they’ll probably finish 10 places down.
4
Team Würth MODYF
They will just plainly dominate the C2 cobbles (no question mark here) and also have a good scoring in the C1 or even HC cobbles. Vanhoucke should add some nice points from GCs as Willwohl will from sprints. They also have a decent TT squad. This should be add enough to their classics points to fight for promotion.
5
SEE Turtles
It may seem a bit surprising to see a team without any serious climber or puncheur this high up the list. But they have one of the best TTT and TT units, they have a bunch of top prologue specialists and they will plan their season around those flat stage races decided by TTs. They also have two good cobblers in theory, and though they’re both pretty one dimensional they should be able to add some scoring in a rather weak field of cobblers. This should generate enough depth scoring over the season to fight for promotion as long as they’re able to add one or two races with huge scoring like Olympia’s Tour last season. And as stated I think they have the setup for this.
6
Cervélo Test Team
The highest ranked of the new teams is predicted just outside the promotion ranks. They have the strongest puncheur line-up of the division and a top 10 climber from Austria, a setup which was sufficient for 6th place in CT last season. They even have a decent TTT lineup on top.
7
Spark Team NZ
Bennett would have been enough for a safe promotion spot in recent years, but this season’s packed climbing field should affect his scoring, especially in races with TTs. Lemus Davila is another good stage racing asset, but a higher position would need constant scoring from their puncheurs Beltran and Yates as well. That’s surely not impossible and they definitely will be in the promotion fight.
8
Glanbia
The Irish are famous for their TT unit, but there are quite a few really good TT (and TTT) units in this season’s CT. So they might get some TTT podiums and GC depth scoring in TT heavy races, but they just lack the top scorer on any terrain.
9
Ethiopian Airlines
They have a good climber, a good puncheur, a good sprinter and a good TTT unit. This should be a good foundation to not end at the bottom of the rankings, but it’s also a not much more than that. It seems like a solid midfielder team, but that’s not the worst prediction for a new team.
10
Trans Looney Tunes
The Slovenians are placed rather low for a relegated team, but I just don’t see the big individual scorers here. The TTT unit is nice, Nareklishvili will get some points from the TTs as well and they have two of the better cobblers of the division (though I rate them to be rather shaky scorers). But I miss the real upside in their squad.
11
Genii Hyundai N Cycling
They have one of the best TTT units of the division and one of the best puncheurs in KHJ. Why are they the worst relegated team then? Well, I don’t see much more big scoring potential – and the division’s TTTs will be really contested this season, so scoring big there isn’t guaranteed as well.
12
Euskadi-Munias
They actually have a good climber, a good TTer, a good cobbler and a really good sprinter – but in fact all of them are rather one dimensional riders with rather weak backups, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fail more often than succeed. And consistent leaders are key to finish high in the rankings.
13
Zain-Omantel
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish way higher in the rankings as Carapaz should be a top 3 stage racer and Minali a top 10 sprinter on paper. But both were rather disappointing last season and I don’t really trust them to be consistent this season as well. And with a big competition in both their fields this could prove decisive to miss the top 10.
14
Hilcona Racing Team
They have one of the best puncheurs of the division in Eiking. But so had Gjensidige last season, and they finished 9th with a much more convincing remaining squad than the Liechtensteiners have this season. So despite riders like Havik or Morin relying on a pure puncheur just won’t be enough for the top 10.
15
Duvel-Tsingtao
I’m a bit surprised to see this new team so low on my ranking (actually as the worst of the new teams), but they just lack the actual and potential top scorers to finish higher. Smith and Van Lerberghe are nice options in their terrains, but not much more. And the TTT squad looks nice on its own, but is rather mediocre in comparison with so many teams focussing on this discipline this season.
16
Euskotren – Pays Basque
The Basques probably will be another victim of the TTT inflation in this year’s CT. They’re probably not among the top dogs there despite focussing on the TTers and don’t really have the big scorers in the other terrains, although the likes of Lafay or Darbinyan could get some surprise results.
17
Babymetal
The Japanese will have another difficult season ahead, and though I quite like their setup in general they just lack the consistent scorers on any terrain. Petelin or Riabushenko will probably get some good results, but the team mostly relies on surprise results.
18
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
They already finished last of the teams actually racing in last season and I don’t see any real improvement on their squad after Zariff leaving the team. Fabbro and Insausti will probably be their best scoring opportunities – and both are rather sub-top options for rather niche terrains.
1) Newton Foundation p/b Zwift
2) Team Würth MODYF
3) Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
4) Duvel-Tsingtao
5) Spark Team NZ
6) Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
7) Zain - Omantel
8) SEE Turtles
9) Trans Looney Tunes
10) Glanbia
11) Genii Hyundai N Cycling
12) Ethiopian Airlines
13) Cervelo Test Team
14) Euskotren - Pays Basque
15) Euskadi-Murias
16) Babymetal
17) Hilcona Racing Team
18) Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
My CT algorithm is pretty out of date at this point so I just ran my PCT estimator which should suffice for a lazy prediction. Because of this I wouldn't put a lot of weight on the point totals, more the sequence and relative gaps.
This method just assigns points to riders, it doesn't pay any attention to team structure or division structure. So for example Zepuntke doesn't get any credit for being the dominant cobbler.
And that partially explains one outlier from other predictions - Team Würth MODYF is much further down. I am a little skeptical that Zepuntke will be that dominant, he should kill a race like Faso but a lot of the CT cobbled races aren't that hard, and if he can't get separation a rider like Van Lerberghe could be a nightmare for him.
In a similarity to others Newton is dominant. Hard to argue with that, Jorgenson is the best all round stage racer and I think Elosegui is second best. They are going to be a real problem for PCT teams in the C1 and HC races. I think identifying Elosegui and acquiring him for training was a brilliant move by MRE. Trans comes in second and does much better than in other predictions mainly because they have many riders capable of putting up some points.
The team that really suffers here versus other predictions is SEE Turtles, sorry Sean. I looked at that, my algorithm doesn't value the PRL stat much (something I should look at). And Sean seems to focus on unique riders who can outscore their OVL, which also doesn't get valued in what is at its core an OVL based method. I think my algorithm is too pessimistic but if the PRL strategy doesn't reap outsized rewards I don't see where else points are coming from. But very glad I am not in Amissa Bongo this year.
Here’s my prediction for the PT – and it’s really a lazy one as I’m not really confident in my understanding of the PT specific features of the Man Game.
Used my model for PT scoring with some simple adjustments for RD usage and point distribution to get the numbers below. A retrospective fit using 2023's modelled figures and the same adjustments results in a correlation coefficient of around 0.8, so certainly not a perfect model but hopefully not completely wrong!
1
Evonik - ELKO
9372
2
Team Puma - SAP
8920
3
Polar
8396
4
Gazelle
7191
5
Xero Racing
6795
6
King Power
6507
7
Lidl Cycling
6241
8
Moser - Sygic
6049
9
Grieg-Maersk
6006
10
Aker - MOT
5909
11
Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
5892
12
Rabobank
5668
13
EA Vesuvio
5168
14
ZARA - Irizar
5093
15
Assa Abloy
4996
16
Cedevita
4851
17
Jura GIANTS
4835
18
cycleYorkshire
4599
19
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
4408
20
Fastned
4386
21
Oxxo - Frisby
4141
22
MOL Cycling Team
3737
Worth pointing out that the model overrated Evonik, Puma and Lidl the most in the retrospective 2023 look back, and underrated Vesuvio, cycleYorkshire, Carlsberg and MOL in particular. There's a potentially smarter way of doing RD adjustment which may smooth some of that out (a question for any v2), but would not be surprised if it is again the case here. There is also the possibility of running it for PCT and CT if time permits - it is intended to be useful for more than just making me less worried about relegation
Where can I sign for this 17th place?
The upside for my team is that we're not projected to finish last in the two predictions so far, so there's hope - but I can't really see Oxxo or Fastned finish behind us tbh.
Thanks to everyone for doing predictions anyway, always interesting to look at these
I'd be pretty disappointed to score almost 1300 fewer points this year I think. Would take almost everyone regressing quite a bit since the only rider I lost without a better replacement was Kamna, who scored 219 points last year. But certainly not impossible if Per/Galta/AKA all flop compared to last season. Have to hope for the best.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Used my model for PT scoring with some simple adjustments for RD usage and point distribution to get the numbers below. A retrospective fit using 2023's modelled figures and the same adjustments results in a correlation coefficient of around 0.8, so certainly not a perfect model but hopefully not completely wrong!
1
Evonik - ELKO
9372
2
Team Puma - SAP
8920
3
Polar
8396
Worth pointing out that the model overrated Evonik, Puma and Lidl the most in the retrospective 2023 look back, and underrated Vesuvio, cycleYorkshire, Carlsberg and MOL in particular. There's a potentially smarter way of doing RD adjustment which may smooth some of that out (a question for any v2), but would not be surprised if it is again the case here.
I'd say that the model once again overrates Evonik and Puma at least. Hard to see a world where 8300 points are only good for third. I would be curious to see how those numbers got this high as the bottom half scoring looks much more realistic to me. Looking at the top teams, maybe it overrates or double counts certain type of stage racers?
Spoiler
I know the order and differences are the real interesting talking points but I'm also curious here since the order & other point totals look mostly reasonable here
Time now for a PCT preview. I feel even less confident in this one than I was for CT, but a very fun endeavor. Apologies to those I've undervalued - may the odds be ever in your favor to prove me wrong!
Position
Team
Rationale
1
Tryg-Eni
This team has suitable leaders in every race type this upcoming season. Demare is the clear star, but Johannessen is a great leader option in the mountains as well. Schlegel holds the #2 spot there and tends to overperform just a bit, especially in races with out a TT. Ovsyannikov pushed this team to the top of the standings though. He should get a cobbled win or two this year and should almost always represent well if he can hold onto the front group. Rodenberg also sits right in a position to score well while Norsgaard will also be a consistent scorer.
2
ELCO - ABEA
One of the deepest teams in the entire division, they're strong from top to bottom. Giannoutsos should be a strong GC contender when teamed up with a very deep TTT squad that could even make Mavrikakis an important GC rider where he otherwise would not. Farantakis is a middle of the road sprinter, but that appears to be exactly where you want to be. Summerhill, Kortsidakis, and Stavrakakis should be a cobbled team to beware. While I do wish there was a clear single star, I think there will be high Top 5 placings regularly from this squad even without it and a clear reliance on depth that will push them toward the top.
3
Sony - Force India
Stars in a number of areas push this group into promotion position. Olivier showed his strength last season and should be a main factor again. Benoot is an absolutely star on the cobbles and the hills - can he find the exact right race for him. The combination cobble squad is also crucial for this group - Kuroedax2, Yechezkel and Benoot together should "cobble" together some high point totals. Howson and Cataford teamed up in ITT races will also be tough to defeat.
4
Bralirwa - Cegeka
It was a bit shocking not to see Bralirwa promote last season, but this should be the time. Meintjes is one of my favorite GC riders in the division as he seems to match almost any rider on the ascents. Stallaert should be able to return to some cobble domination again this season after facing Theuns more than a couple times in 2023. While it still won't be a cake walk, Stallaert seems well-positioned. Teuns, Tesfatsion, and Ndayisenga are a great trio of secondary leaders. Overall, this set-up just feels right to promote even with a few weaknesses in TT and sprints.
5
Indosat Ooredoo
Dunbar is my favorite rider in the entire PCT division and is well-suited for any challenge. Tenorio should also be a top5 GC man across the division and pull away across many a TT stage race. Bagioli should contest well with Yudha in the hill classics, while Nur Hasan will handle PCT much better than last year's sprint requirements. Either way, lots of options to develop here and Dunbar should be the crucial part of that.
6
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
We'll give Oomen the co-title of best GC rider in the division and it showed based on successes last year. His combination of MO and TT position him very well, especially alongside a banger TTT that can carry him to victory as well. Bonfazio is a perplexing piece, but should tally up points as long as he makes it to the line. Van Gils, De Plus and Van Poucke are other crucial riders. Will they get their own chances or fall into too many domestique roles. Gamper is the biggest question mark. He should be prepped to win a cobbled classic or two. Whether he can be dominant might determine the season.
7
Benetton Bimex Cycling
Lots of debate where to put this squad, but Adler assures that the planning is set-up well (and I believe him). Afewerki is a great sprinter in longer stage races and appears to relatively overperform. Powless was a fantastic get with great potential in the TTs while Reis is the other co-title holder for best GC in the division. Durbridge will join Powless to lead the TT squad. A lack of cobbles scares me a bit, but otherwise I think things should line up here.
8
ISA - Hexacta
Boy does this group have sprint depth. Ewan, Harrison, Contreras, and even Russo should all be able to contest sprints at different races and control the entire calendar. Ewan is a question mark, but hopefully a year of challenges will now provide him the routes to success. Contreras and Harrison would both benefit from cahnecs of their own. 3 major hill options, especailly Paez should make the hill races with flat finishes competitive; while Van Niekerk is a great shout for punches to the line. A huge strength is the depth of this squad where every rider is maxed. Those depth points are everything, but they sure are something to account for.
9
DK Zalgiris
Lasinis is a mid-tier GC threat, but on 85k might be one of the best value riders in the entire PCT. Two major TT threats in Benisius and Kmieliauskas are not to be forgotten by competitors and teammates alike, with Kopfauf a prologue threat as well for major points. Sagan should manage the hills with the top of the division while Vesely handles the sprints. Overall, this group has made major strides from 2023, eliminating some significant underperformers.
10
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
Padun should be a top performer for this team and overall was in 2023 although not many races went his way. Without Areruya, those chances increase and hopefully he masters picking the time to attack. Aniolkowski is a favorite sprinter of mine, but again it wasn't his season last year. The question here is how will the depth play out. Last season it appeared like there were times where picking a team captain was challenging. This year, they'll need to prioritize in order to best set up for success. Still the pieces are there.
11
Specialized
Can I say why Specialized has fallen this far in my rankings… no. Will I change them? Clearly also no. Kasperkiewicz will be a likely favorite come cobble season, but low sprint speed might hurt chances if he can't get away on hills. Still, great support from Van Keirsbulck will also be a factor. Dzamastagic is a great asset when the right races appear, but how often can he be used. Coutinho will lead the sprints with Meurisse leading the hills. Barguil coming down to PCT will be crucial - can he find a GC victory? Doing so would be a huge push for this squad.
12
Everesting
This will be the Stannard and Rodrigues show - with a side of Hayakawa. The lack of any cobble riders is a real concern, but the stars should still deliver here. Stannard's training should make a difference while Rodrigues should be a top 3 stage racer. There's some depth scoring opportunities for Rachid, Benito, Hindley, etc; but this is ride or die by the top of the lineup. The top just should be good enough to carry them along.
13
Sauber Petronas Racing
There isn't a clear star here, but the depth at Sauber Petronas is fantastic in the high mountains. Hirschi can contest the hilly and mountain races, while Frankiny can also star at the high mountains. Misbah is underrated for the results they should get with their TT/MO combination with the right race targetting plan. Einhorn will get their fair share of results in the sprints. No cobble squad is a concern and a lack of 2nd sprinter is not ideal.
14
Team UBS
UBS fits the same mode of Specialized where there isn't a clear reason they've fallen this low except vibes. Godoy and Buchmann should be everyday leaders at this level and yet the results aren't always there althoug Godoy is now coming down from PT. Jacobs is a strong cobbler, while Muller is ready to contribute right behind Buchmann. I really like the Perera pickup from Free Agency and the TTT depth is worth looking at as a mid-level contribution. Somewhere the questions just don't feel answered on where the points will come from, but survival really shouldn't be a problem and I'd be surprised if they finish below this expectation.
15
Minions
The last of the relogating teams, not being able to sell Kinoshita was clearly a major issue for this off-season. He SHOULD be the main factor keeping them afloat, but at the cost and RD level, that value proposition is tough to manage. Ahlstrand and Kalaba are a great sprint duo to split and cover a high proportion of races. Cattaneo is another big question mark. 80MO and 77TT should deliver massive results, but the hill stat might let him down. Only time will tell.
16
Lotto-Caloi
The first of the promoting teams, Lotto-Caloi found a good balance across all terrains. Vakoc is a good mid-level leader in the hills, Liu can compete in the sprints, Min and Quintana are decent GC riders for their salaries, and Calmejane can also compete in the hilly classics. Chatarunga and Vanbilsen aren't world beaters in the cobbles, but they'll be sure to leave cobble classics in the points as opposed to leaving the races with a goose egg. Lots of depth options and sprint options means this team should have targeted the correct races for their squad, helping me lean even further into their success.
17
Ekoi - Le Creuset
Ranaweera didn't have the best 2023 season, but this should be a bounceback season especially with a decent TTT to support when necessary. APP is a great option for hill races as is Oliveira and together they should be able to handle the hilly classics well. Daniel is a strong cobbler to handle the right races alongside Mestric as a back-up. Hodeg is a strong sprint option for races as well. There's no major star power here, but there should be just enough high level scoring and depth to stay up.
18
McCormick Pro Cycling
I struggled writing this preview with how strongly to support Adam Yates and Sosa. Both should be major contributors, but just where they'll fit in the PCT landscape isn't immediately clear. If Sosa can compete like Meintjes that would be huge. There's enough TTT support for a few good races, but one additional TT man would be a huge help. Haller might not perform at the highest level but should find good results somewhere. Narvaez is a great hybrid option as well.
19
Tafjord Kraft
Ackermann is my favorite rider from Tafjord Kraft as there's more than a few punchy races he could win. Enger is the pure sprint option 1, but Waested should also collect points in droves. Liepins is another option there and if they can find a schedule that fits all three. Some very strong TT options for individual races as well - maybe they'll find success in some isolated TT options. The hill group here is interesting, too - some very punchy attacking options but unlikely to find the top step of the podium
20
Kraftwerk Man Machine
In almost every category, this team just sits 1 or 2 teams lower than I hoped to give them a much higher rating. Turgis is a great hill team option, but won't be a top favorite almost anytime. Zabel is a great sprint option though and should be the top favorite. Masnada coming over from Jura is a good get and combines with Roson, Gall, and Evans for mid-level GC hopes. Walscheid is a 2nd level sprint threat as well and should be divided from Zabel for best points. If my estimations are just a bit off, Kraftwerk could jump up the rankings.
21
Llapi-Vita
Kelderman missed some opportunities in 2023 and I worry that'll hurt this team in 2024. It's unclear exactly what he's missing for the killer instinct, but he needs to be a star for this team. Kamberaj was fantastic last year and against a much tougher field that may be a challenge to expect again. Chiarello fits the same boat, there's just not enough opportunities for him in PCT with his decline starting. The cobble squad will manage good results and not of the leaders mentioned will outright fail. Just looks like a challenge to find star power success needed to stay up.
22
JEWA TIROL
Debesay is a great cobbled star to lead this team. Strong in the hill races as well, Debesay will likely make a difference in a number of races, but won't take the win. Arndt is a step behind most GC riders, but can take some stages in sprints if he makes the final group, as can Gabburo for the hilly options. Fraile might be one year too far past prime to make a huge difference and Paillott is good but not quite at the top. Boudat and Losch aren't bad options in sprints, but there's questions as to whether there's enough here to compete against the stars of PCT.
23
Podium Ambition
This final two ranking spots hurt me as a manager, but I'm struggling to find alternatives. PA should be able to find success in TTTs. Lagane is also a great target for a few different stage races and should be able to cement some chances in C1 races in particular. No depth in the mountains though is a major concern and wish Major has a sprint/acceleration point or two higher to make the difference at this level. With only two riders barred from C2 racing, they should be able to find good success in those few races though.
24
Manada Coyote
I absolutely love what this team means and should bring to Central America development of the MGUCI, but I think this year is going to be a major struggle. There are only 9 maxed riders on this roster and that's just way too much to be competitive. Coquard is a crapshoot, but not having a major leadout should be helpful although there's a race or two that should definitely be up his alley. McCarthy should have a few races to target as well, but just not enough to move forward. Think this team better hope for tons of breakaway victories this year to find success. 2 great leaders, that just seem prone to underperforming wage
Think this is a very fair assessment, Tryg has a great team. I am not sure not having cobblers is a big issue since you have so much flexibility to design a calendar in PCT.
18th is on the bottom end of the range of where we hope to finish, but not crazy. Agree another TTer would have been nice.
If Tryg wins the division, I will donate 50USD to a conservation project of your choice Sean. I do think that your assessment of my team is pretty on point, I have myself finishing barely inside the top 10 however.
I hope you're right
