Think you have done very well on your renewals! Suspect letting Quintana go for free also was the right call, really difficult to say what his potential value would have been. Good luck with your actions when the transfer frenzy is upon us!
Without doing any checks I would suspect the 1 million in cap space should be one of the highest, if not the highest amount for a returning PT team. And that's not bad since the team already has stable leadership to continue in PT. I suspect Carlsberg will be even more competitive next season.
Very nice cutback on Per, and logic to see Quintana go. Was nice to see our first buy ever (Petrovski) have the opportunity to race in PT in his final (I guess) season
Interesting to see what you'll do with that amount of cap space!
Think you have done very well on your renewals! Suspect letting Quintana go for free also was the right call, really difficult to say what his potential value would have been. Good luck with your actions when the transfer frenzy is upon us!
We did make Quintana a couple of offers that we felt were in line with his current value, but coming down from his previous wage, we knew already that those offers were never going to be accepted. Even if some value could be squeezed out of him, I decided it was not worth the effort of blocking my cap space and potentially not being able to offload him on what would need to be a very bloated wage. At the same time, given the thinness of the FA market this year, that may have been a mistake. We'll see.
Without doing any checks I would suspect the 1 million in cap space should be one of the highest, if not the highest amount for a returning PT team. And that's not bad since the team already has stable leadership to continue in PT. I suspect Carlsberg will be even more competitive next season.
Cap space is always great, but also scary. I've squandered it by missing early opportunities many times before. Hopefully that won't be the case this year.
Very nice cutback on Per, and logic to see Quintana go. Was nice to see our first buy ever (Petrovski) have the opportunity to race in PT in his final (I guess) season
Interesting to see what you'll do with that amount of cap space!
Petrovski was a last minute addition, but ended up being a really solid rider for us, both as a domestique, and winning the KOM in Slovenie. Unfortunately those types of domestiques have very thin margins once they hit decline years.
Availability post coming soon!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Each year, we compile a list of our projections for Carlsberg's transfer activity, based on leaks from our team sources and our analysts. New this year, we've also included projections from our AI bot, who has interpreted each manager's past behavior to predict future transactions.
This year is different for Carlsberg because, for the first time in a long time, there is stability in the air. Or, so it seems. Unlike in previous years, there is no rider certain to be sold. Nevertheless, the team has holes (GC and sprint leader ages, being the most apparent), and a lot of cap space, and funds need to come from somewhere to fill those holes. So, riders otherwise considered part of the core could be up for grabs. Or, the team could finally enter the "Swap" meta that has taken MG UCi by storm in recent years.
As always, this list is not determinative of whether a rider will actually be transferred. Rather, it displays the likelihood of a sale given a market value offer at the peak of transfers. A rider listed as "maybe" is not necessarily a 50% chance to be sold regardless of the situational context. At the same time, "unlikely" doesn't mean another manager shouldn't inquire. Anyone besides the untouchables is in play, in the right context.
First
Last
Availability
David
Per
No
Fredrik Strand
Galta
Unlikely
Alex
Aranburu
Maybe
Asbjorn
Kragh Andersen
No
Lennard
Kämna
Unlikely
Mattias
Skjelmose Jensen
No
Jonas
Gregaard
Unlikely
Niklas
Eg
Maybe
Gyasi
Sulvaran
Unlikely
Erik Nordsaeter
Resell
Maybe
Patrick
Olesen
Unlikely
Matija
Mestric
Likely
Hugo
Forssell
Unlikely
Goldwijnn
Cannister
Unlikely
Let's start with the clear "no's" first. David Per carried Carlsberg last year and has already become the team absolute leader, the core of its identity. Skjelmose Jensen is the future of Denmark and has effectively signed a 10 year contract already. Kragh Andersen is a lifer and will retire with the team.
Beyond that, much less is set in stone. Riders who have not been with the team very long, and/or do not fit the regional focus of the sponsors, are always the easiest to be sold—hence why Matija Mestric gets the sole "likely" rating. But even this is not especially strong indication of a desire to sell. Resell gets a "Maybe," though it's unlikely both are sold unless they are more than replaced.
Niklas Eg was once thought of as an untouchable part of the Danish core, and to be far, he's still thought of that way. However, the emergences of Skjelmose and Kamna, not to mention Aranburu and Gregaard, have made his role as a secondary stage racer a bit more redundant. Still, he's on a great wage and a consistently scores minor GC's in addition to his domestique duties. In PT, stage race depth is hard to overdo, so depth is good. Still, he's more available than in recent years.
Alex Aranburu's name has been floated around for a couple of transfer season's now. His scoring potential has been deflated by the team's need to always prioritize cobbles in band selection, and skip the hybrid puncheur races that would suit him best. Instead he's forced into races with TT's where he can't shine. He had a decent Ardennes though, and it's unclear the team would be willing to cut ties and leave themselves without any puncheur at all.
Potential buyer's shouldn't get too excited about Lennard Kamna being listed as "unlikely" rather than untouchable this year. Yes, a deal is more possible than before, but it is not imminent. Much like Aranburu, Kamna had a somewhat down year adjusting to a PT schedule that could not be tailored to his skillset as well as it was in PCT. But he had a requisite wage reduction for the performance dip, and he's still very young and trainable. It would take a very high value offer to pry him from Carlsberg.
After a really great year, it seems preposterous that Galta could be traded. And indeed, it's unlikely, given how difficult it would be to replace his scoring, and the fact that he's Scandinavian. Therefore, we project he'll stay. But any scenario where Carlsberg could get a younger GC rider in exchange or with the funds could be enticing.
Carlsberg no longer have any young talents who could possibly need loans, but they may be looking to change that, in which case they would be looking for 1>3 loans from their PCT or CT peers.
They have no specific plans to take in loanees, but are always open to it if a deal can be struck. 25k/25k wage splits can be useful in these contexts, though other arrangements are of course possible.
Since swaps and shuffling are possibility, it's also hard to say Carlsberg are looking to buy any one particular type of rider. Their primary sprinter and GC leader are both 32 years old, so something must be done about that. Skjelmose maybe be enough on the GC side, but we shouldn't forget that Quintana has already been released. The team also lacks a genuine PT time trialist, an arena they could delve into.
We'll keep you updated on events as they transpire!
Mr. Pickles
Sporting News
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Crazy how Per is so good that some part of me felt disappointed you aren't selling a 29-year-old superstar who you signed for €1m last year and have put training money into. Damn it!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Well, some interesting "Maybe" or "Unlikely" tag - but I likely don't have the necessary fundings to jump on the Kämna hype train
But some other names could be interesting to improve roster depth, we'll see whether we'll be in touch
Btw, still not happy you got Galta last year, but I have to admit that he's a perfect fit
Good luck for transfers & the upcoming season, looking forward to some nice Aranburu vs. Schmid duels
Carlsberg went into this offseason with a good chunk of cap space, looking to restructure their team without destroying their core. Let's see how they did.
Lennard Kamna | Time Trialist | 2019-2023
You could argue that Lennard Kamna was Carlsberg's first true star talent signing, and his signing was sort of an accident. Down on their luck and resigned to relegation after a long transfer season full of failures to sign proper PCT leaders, management stumbled upon bidding for two young talents—Kamna, and Spaniard Alex Aranburu. Not sure which to pursue, the team gambled and went for both. Kamna was going for a hefty sum on the open market, but with nothing else to lose, Carlsberg invested in the future, signing him to a 280,000 contract.
After racing with Carlsberg as a neopro and then spending two seasons out on loan while the team promoted back from CT and sought to establish themselves in the upper divisions, Kamna returned as a maxed rider in 2022, putting together one of the most shocking seasons in MG history (only a mild exaggeration). He put together a >500 point campaign and a top 30 individual finish in the PCT rankings on only a $150,000 salary, finding his niche in hilly races containing time trials and being a true difference maker in Carlsberg's promotion to PT.
Things went less ideally in PT in 2023, where Kamna couldn't shape his schedule to fit his unique skillset as well, and the competition had begun to realize and saturate his niche. Though the year was something of a sophomore slump, he was still productive, and at only 28, figured to remain a key part of Carlsberg's plans going forward.
However, sometimes you get an offer you can't refuse. It's no secret that Puma - SAP have been seeking Kamna's services since he was first scouted, and his loan time spent there in 2021 only intensified this desire. They've made offers every year, but this year, their offer of $2,000,000 + Lukas Meiler, who will become David Per's chief cobbles helper, seemed too good to pass up. Though it seemed almost impossible for many years, Carlsberg's first true star talent will leave their colors this year.
Matija Mestric | Cobbles | 2022-2023
The only other loss this year was Matija Mestric. He joined Carlsberg as a 25 year old in 2022 in exchange for fellow cobbles rider Olli Kulppi. mestric never had a chance to race for his own chances, but he was perfect in his domestique role for his captains—first Matteo Trentin in Carlsberg's 2022 promotion campaign, and then David Per in his top 10 PT season in 2023. We wish him luck at Ekoi, where he was sold for $420,000.
Team Manager baseballlover312 spoke on the departures:
"It goes without saying that selling Lennard is always something we have resisted fully. He delivered so much promise for us these last two years. And in many ways, he was emblematic of our rebuild and surge to the top of the sport, signing at perhaps our lowest point back in 2019. We had every intention to keep him for the next half decade. But in our negotiations with Puma, we felt we reached a spot where we were comfortable with the sale even despite how much we love what he brings to the table. And with the PT schedule and restructuring of some of his favored sections of the calendar, we felt this was the right time to move on. We wish him the best at Puma, and we know he'll be happy there."
The team added more arrivals though this year! We'll go over them soon.
Mr. Pickles
Sporting News
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
So, who joined Carlsberg this year to make up for such big losses? Will it be enough. Note: This only includes maxed riders, not new talents.
Hugh Carthy | $365,000 | Climber
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Nairo Quintana didn't contribute a whole lot last year, but the team still felt his departure left a void they wanted to a fill. The team prefers a two GC rider ethos in PT, where every team must ride three GT's plus a number of additional stages races. The one qualifier was that the rider could not be immediately declining, which limited Carlsberg's options compared to many of their peers, who picked up new leaders in their mid-30's. With Galta declining next year, sustainability was the focus. But the pickings were slim (and appeared even slimmer than they actually were, looking at some late transfers).
In the end, having done their due diligence, Carlsberg were able to find a deal with cycleyorkshire for their top climber Hugh Carthy. Carthy is a top climber, and still has three maxed years remaining, where he will be a primary leader ahead of Skjelmose's ascent to the throne. The fee was steep at 1.75 million, since Carthy was not a transfer listed rider. But the team felt it was necessary and welcome him aboard.
Matthew Walls | $260,000 | Sprinter
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In a similar vein to the Carthy signing, Carlsberg were aware that Absjorn Kragh Andersen is now 32 years old and will soon begin the decline phase of his career. Selling AKA was never a possibility this season because he's a lifer, but a long term replacement was still a primary goal for the team. The team was luckily able to sign Matthew Walls in free agency for a hefty wage of $260,000. He's not quite at AKA's level, and will be paid more this season, neither of which are ideal. But the team believes he can fulfill a similar niche of a second tier sprinter leader that soaks up points and surprises with podiums and wins on occasion. And since he's newly maxed at only 26 years, he can do it for a long time.
Lukas Meiler | $125,000 | Classics
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64
Meiler transfers in as part of the Kamna deal along with the $2,000,000 fee, and he immediately becomes David Per's top leuitenant. The punchy cobbles superdomestique is an archetype Carlsberg have sought since Ramon Sinkeldam co-captained Pieter Vanspeybrouck back in the day, and Meiler himself has been on Carlsberg's radar a long time as a versatile, young option on a good value wage. At 29, he is the same age as Per, and can hopefully help him succeed over the next few years, while also scoring a bit in his own right from being near the front of the action.
Isaac Bolivar | $50,000 | Cobbles
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72
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68
A mild youth movement was the main agenda for transfers, but for the final spots signed from free agency bucked that trend—they're usually not sellable assets anyway so their decline is less important. Once Matija Mestric left, the team wanted some extra cobbles support, so they signed 33 year old Colombian Isaac Bolivar for a minimum 50,000 contract. He should be a good early asset for cobbled classics while not being a complete buffoon in the rare instance he may be tasked with riding a TTT.
Sota Ikibe | $50,000 | Stage Racer
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While the team felt they had most of their first level dpeth in the stage racing department, they add Ikibe for versatility, where he can reliably offer early support for both mountains and hills, as well as add to their TTT team (yes, Carlsberg's TTT squad is going to be terrible).
In addition to the rider's above, the team was also able to resign Mathias Krigbaum after he left in free agency. He signs for $65,000, about 5,000 more than he reportedly rejected in renewals. Guess his gamble to bet on himself paid off!
"Getting younger was our top priority this transfer season, and in this era of deflationary skills since the doping crackdown, that is not an easy task. Nevertheless, we feel like we got two very good new leaders as well as a top superdomestique for Per to aid in depth scoring, all of whom can contribute to our team for years to come. As long as we don't relegate, that's a success in our book."
Next up will be the talents presentation, where Carlsberg have something to present this year!
Mr. Pickles
Sporting News
Edited by baseballlover312 on 07-09-2024 16:05
Carlsberg have been quite talent on the talent front since their opening day signing of Mathias SKjelmose Jensen back in 2022. Would that continue this year? Not really. The team was involved in a bunch of talent bids including for William Blume Levy and Rasmus Sojberg Pedersen, but ultimately were able to find one star Danish talent, along with a couple of other interesting names.
Carlsberg didn't add any new, maxed Scandinavians or Curacao riders this season, so that was also a priority on the development front.
Asbjorn Kragh Andersen signed with Carlsberg in 2014 and eventually become the champion of Danish sprinting for almost a decade. However, at 32, his time is almost up. Luckily, there is a replacement in the wings: Tobias Lund Andresen. Tobias will not shock anyone with his versatility. He doesn't climb, time trial, or ride cobbles. But he's fast. Very fast. And in about 3 years, he'll be able to showcase that to the world.
Since Carlsberg is a PT team, they are not able to develop Lund Andresen properly at this stage of his young career. Thus, he joins Ekoi - Le Creuset for the 2024 season, where he will reach two new levels and be well on his way to a successful career.
Tilen Finkst | $70,000 | Fighter | Pot. 3
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At 29, Finkst is older than most talents, and also somewhat developed already at Lvl 3.16. But some guys just get left behind, and that doesn't mean they can't be late bloomers. Carlsberg believe Finkst is such a guy with untapped potential. They've wanted a new fighter in their ranks since trading Joel Suter two seasons ago, and Finkst should develop into one, if only for a short time. He will be a beast on flat roads with a decent sprint for leadouts or late attacks, he'll be a steady cobbles domestique, and a good all-rounder to fill stage race lineups.
Curacao has now been a secondary nationality for Carlsberg for four seasons, in honor of both Marc De Maar's impact on the team culture and Schlumberger's financial contributions to the team. With two Curacao riders already on the roster, Jeremias make a third. He is a pure climber who will top out as a domestique, but that doesn't mean he can't be valuable going forward. He is 22 with a lot of development to do, and this year he will do it as a stagiare.
Veeti Vainio | $10,000 | Cobbles | Pot. 5
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Veeti also joins as a stagiare, in his case from Finland. He is a pure cobbled classics rider in every sense, but the team believes he can be quite good at it, and there is always a market for that kind of help at Carlsberg.
In addition, Carlsberg welcomes two loanees who will complete their development in green and blue this year. Alexandros Matsangos from ELCO, who will aid the team on cobbles and in TTT's, and Stan Van Tricht from Duvel, who will be a versatile helper in his final development year. The team thanks those managers!
"Our bidding wars were quite public this year, so it was pretty obvious what we were trying to do. We've gotten less Danish the last couple of years, and that has not been intentional. It's just a hyper-competitive market with 3 PT teams and 1 PCT team having at least a secondary nationality, plus even more Scandinavian teams with an interest. So, you saw everything we tried to pull off. I'm very glad we not only ended up with Lund Andresen in the end, but were able to get the funds to get him to Level 3 this season. He's a long term piece that we are very excited for. Also excited for Finkst as a somewhat overlooked rider who will have a new opportuntiy to grow with us, and the stagiares are both riders we see as long term fits with our team as well, which isn't always the case. Overall, we're satisfied with our signings even if we hoped for a little more."
For the first half decade of its existence, training was not really in the cards for Carlsberg at all, but the last few years, it has become an integral part of their operations. First is twas Asbjorn Kragh Andersen getting a bump in 2020, then the controversial hills training for Alex Aranburu, and finally the huge cobbles training for David Per last year. So, what about this year?
Two years ago, when Carlsberg scored the Girmay loan, Lennard Kamna was not yet trainable, and Carlsberg's other leaders in their promotion push were too old. So, use of the money settled on Alex Aranburu, the climber/puncheur hybrid without a fully defined role after the signing of Kristian Haugaard Jensen. And the question became—climber or puncheur? The team chose puncheur. In hindsight, it may have been the wrong option, as it's undoubtable that his high resistance, low stamina, low acceleration skilslet maps better to a climber's build. A diesel climber, at that. But given the future outlook and makeup of the team, and the peloton as a whole (where climbers have come to dominate the top ranks), he seemed to have an easier lane as a puncheur.
After the sale of Kamna, the team once again had to figure out how to spend their money, with only one realy leader being trainable. Gregaard and Meiler were other options for marginal upgrades, but the team ultimately decided to invest more in Aranburu—the thought being that the jump from 79->80 hill would give him a bigger positioning boost, and that the removal of several TT's in hilly races across the calendar would also favor him. So, let's check out the changes.
Alex Aranburu | $280,000 | Age 29
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2023
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↓↓↓
2022
69
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It's admittedly a suspect training. Aranburu wasn't terrific in PT last year. He showed flashes, such as his 7th in Amstel Gold Race, but he too often was either out of position due to his role in the pecking order, or lost huge time in the time trials and prologues of hilly stages races to fall out of contention. The hope is that both of those improve, as the training puts him further up the positioning battle, and the removal of several TT's across the PT calendar makes him a more viable GC option.
That said, the hesitations from his initial 77->79 training still remain. His flat, stamina, and acceleration are all lower than you want from a top puncheur. And they're not getting better at this point. His wage will also surely increase next season from this. So it's a risk, and one that hopefully doesn't send Carlsberg spiraling towards relegation. But Aranburu, despite being Spanish, is homegrown. And Carlsberg have put their faith in him to succeed.
Mr. Pickles
Sporting News
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
So, the transfer season has concluded, and it's a new look Carlsberg. Let's take a look at the full roster.
Last year, Carlsberg finished in 13th place. In terms of points scorers, they've had three major subtractions: Lennard Kamna, Nairo Quintana, and Jaume Sureda. In their place, they've acquired Hugh Carthy, Matthew Walls, and Lukas Meiler. Aranburu has also been trained, and Skjelmose Jensen has progressed significantly in his development.
Cobbles remain the focus, coming off David Per's 1400 point year, and he should have more support this time around. Lukas Meiler takes over as his top lieutenant, and he is stronger than anyone who rode alongside Per last year. There is also slightly more depth, with Cannister having developed, Matsangos loaned in, and Tilen Finkst being a candidate to fill rosters. It's unlikely that Per repeats last season, of course, but the hope is he won't fall off too dramatically.
The next most invested terrain will be stage races. Galta stays on as the primary leader, joined by Hugh Carthy. Carthy is not a time trialist, that's for sure, but he should hopefully be able be planned to outperform Quintana's disappointing output at least. Together, Galta and Carthy should be able to cover all mountainous races on the team's calendar, back up by Grgaard, Eg, and the newly improved Skjelmose Jensen.
The next changes happened in sprints. AKA stays on as the main leader, but he has a new friend, Matthew Walls. Walls is on a hefty salary and certainly won't bring as much value as Jaume Sureda did last year. But he's the better sprinter on paper, and hopefully will be able to at least match his scoring output. Forssell has maxed as well now, though Carlsberg have not invested in leadouts for many years.
Finally, the newly trained Aranburu leads on hills. He doesn't exactly have much support in that, though Meiler should be able to help out on occasion. His lack of acceleration is shared by his domestiques too, and it's interesting to see Carlsberg be a very acceleration deficient team, after so many years of success from puncheurs like De Maar and Juul-Jensen.
As usual, Carlsberg have tried to have at least one leader on every terrain, but there is now one exception. After crafting their PTHC calendar away from time trials, and seeing the amount of time trials slightly reduced overall, the Kamna sale was the last straw. The team has basically no TTT setup anymore at all, with only a few hybrid domestiques available to limit time losses in stage races. Management hopes that careful calendar planning will limit the effect of these losses, which began with the Arturs Belevics sale two offseasons ago.
Is this team better than last year's? Probably, at least at the top, given how unfit Kamna's schedule would have been. But likely not by much, and the competition has gotten fiercer. They also had some very lucky performances last year from guys like Sureda, which make a repeat less likely. On the other hand, the addition of a true Danish leader waiting in the wings brings some excitement to the fold, even in stressful moments.
The goal was to get younger leaders and not relegate. They did the first part. Can they do the second? Let us know what you think.
Have always loved Per ever since his days on loan with us. He had a great season last time, and no reason why he can't again. Decent firepower on the mountains and sprints. Will be interesting to see how an improved Aranburu will do on the hills.
Think you've got definitely an upgrade with Carthy over Quintana. I hope Aranburu can step up with that hills training. Although I don't know how the game will handle this rather low stamina. The same can be said about Walls with his recovery.
All in all I don't think you should be in any relegation danger with guys like Per, AKA, Carthy and Galta bringing in the points.
Good luck!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
Hugh Carthy 
Isaac Bolivar 
Sota Ikibe | $50,000 | Stage Racer
Veeti Vainio | $10,000 | Cobbles | Pot. 5
Alexandros Matsangos from ELCO, who will aid the team on cobbles and in TTT's, and 
Stan Van Tricht from Duvel, who will be a versatile helper in his final development year. The team thanks those managers!
