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Tour of California - Discussions
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 03-03-2024 09:58
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 808
Joined: 05-10-2021
PCM$: 600.00
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A week in California for the PCT peloton! And in the seven stages, there will be a bit for everyone.
Though the race has been in the calendar since 2008, it has changed a bit of categories through the years. As such, one can find some of the more prestigious stage racers in the palmares, such as Taylor Phinney (five times winner) and Silvio Herkoltz. Last year, it was a C2 race. This year, it’s back at the HC level.
| 2022 | Lawrence Warbasse | McCormick Pro Cycling | | 2021 | Andrei Amador | Volcanica - Fox | | 2020 | Adam Yates | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | 2019 | Aleksandr Pluchkin | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | 2018 | Silvio Herklotz | Team Puma - SAP | | 2017 | Tom Jelte Slagter | Hugo Boss | | 2016 | Yuri Trofimov | Tinkoff Sport Academy | | 2015 | Taylor Phinney | Venchi | | 2014 | Taylor Phinney | Wikipedia | | 2013 | Tiago Machado | Pearl Adidas |
| 1 | Lawrence Warbasse | McCormick Pro Cycling | 20h55'46 | | 2 | Gino Mäder | Jura GIANTS | + 14 | | 3 | Mikel Iturria | Bordeaux Metropole - Euskotren | + 42 | | 4 | William Barta | Philips - Force India | + 44 | | 5 | Bakhtiyar Kozhatayev | BWT Hyundai N Cycling | + 46 | | 6 | Aberlardo Ablenado | Caja Rural Cycling Team | + 54 | | 7 | Matteo Fabbro | Air New Zealand | + 58 | | 8 | Andrew Talansky | Glanbia | + 1'08 | | 9 | Antonio Pedrero | Bonduelle - Eesti Energia | + 2'06 | | 10 | Lawson Craddock | Glanbia | + 2'07 | | 11 | Sebastian Henao | Le Creuset | + 2'08 | | 12 | Fabio Aru | Pas Normal Studios - Mikkeller | + 2'27 | | 13 | Stefan Petrovski | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | + 3'29 | | 14 | Daniel Ricardo Diaz | Air New Zealand | + 4'09 | | 15 | Jai Hindley | Staffbase - BHP | + 4'39 | | 16 | Jesus Herrada | Volcanica - Fox | + 5'11 | | 17 | Ian Boswell | McCormick Pro Cycling | + 5'41 | | 18 | Jordan Schleck | BNZ-Superhero Racing | s.t. | | 19 | Andrei Sakalou | Oktal Pharma - TotalTV | + 5'46 | | 20 | Patrick Olesen | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | + 6'04 |
Before talking of the favorites, let’s have a look at the route. Two time-trials, totalling 33 km, will surely have an impact. Though the first stage should go to a prologue specialists, it’s a bit longer than what they could be used to, so the more traditional time-trialists should have their chances too.
Then comes the only mountain stage. It’s a short one, but the final climbs should be hard enough to create substantial gaps.
The two hilly stages also have potential to do some damages, as they feature multiples climbs and are very long. Over 200 km for the final stage of the week, and the descending finish shouldn’t discard it as an important stage.
Finally, the sprinters will have two stages to hunt glory.
| FL | MT | HI | TT | ST | RS | RC | CO | SP | AC | FT | DH | PR |  Eastman | 70 | 82 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 56 | 62 | 69 | 73 | 66 | 73 |
Coming down from the protour, Ryan Eastman has all he needs to win this race. Among the favories, he’s the best climber and the best time-trialist. Though he’s a bit weaker in the short time-trials, those are indeed short and he shouldn’t lose more than some seconds. The main chances of the opposition will be to try to drop him the hilly stages. With Main, McKenna and Dunne, the American also has decent support to help him if in trouble, as well as great rouleurs to keep the breakaway in checks.
| FL | MT | HI | TT | ST | RS | RC | CO | SP | AC | FT | DH | PR |  Reis | 70 | 81 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 76 | 78 | 56 | 50 | 64 | 66 | 68 | 76 |  Oomen | 71 | 81 | 75 | 74 | 78 | 77 | 78 | 56 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 68 | 77 |  Choi | 71 | 81 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 79 | 63 | 59 | 68 | 68 | 71 | 74 |  Penasa | 70 | 80 | 74 | 70 | 75 | 72 | 77 | 50 | 57 | 76 | 68 | 64 | 70 |  Ranaweera | 67 | 80 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 52 | 58 | 65 | 57 | 69 | 73 |  McNulty | 72 | 80 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 61 | 64 | 68 | 71 | 67 | 75 |  Faglum Karlsson | 71 | 79 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 76 | 56 | 60 | 68 | 66 | 74 | 79 |  Stüssi | 71 | 79 | 73 | 75 | 77 | 73 | 78 | 55 | 63 | 66 | 65 | 69 | 69 |  Monsalve | 66 | 79 | 74 | 70 | 76 | 77 | 74 | 54 | 63 | 70 | 67 | 63 | 70 |  Schelling | 70 | 79 | 74 | 71 | 73 | 74 | 71 | 53 | 57 | 68 | 66 | 71 | 70 |
Reis, Oomen and Choi will those supposed to put pressure on Eastman. The three teams bring in strong support, that will be needed to overcome the American. In Seboka, Penasa has the strongest lieutenant here, so he could have something to play. As the strongest time-trialist of the bunch with Eastman, McNulty will be the favorite for the young rider classification, the main outsider being Jorgenson.
| HI | MT | AC | SP | ST | RS |  Beltran | 80 | 78 | 74 | 65 | 71 | 70 | | Boswell | 80 | 71 | 76 | 65 | 77 | 73 |  Jensen | 80 | 70 | 76 | 66 | 77 | 73 | | Müller | 80 | 67 | 73 | 66 | 76 | 71 | | De Plus | 79 | 77 | 72 | 61 | 74 | 73 | | Prevar | 79 | 70 | 71 | 66 | 75 | 68 | | Kanerva | 79 | 64 | 76 | 64 | 75 | 69 |
Two stages might be for the puncheurs, if the GC favorites let them the liberty to fight for stage glory. Four rider could be considered as the biggest contenders: Beltran, Jensen, Boswell and De Plus. Obviously, Müller is one of the strongest puncheurs of the division, but if the climbs are ridden too hard, he might suffer.
Not in this list, Guerreiro would be the favorite in any grouped finish.
For some riders, the question will be whether they get the liberty to fight for the stage win.
| TT | FL | PR | ST | RS |  Dunbar | 80 | 69 | 77 | 74 | 77 | | Rekita | 79 | 72 | 78 | 70 | 73 | | Dillier | 79 | 69 | 78 | 73 | 76 | | Haugard | 79 | 72 | 79 | 74 | 77 |  Powless | 78 | 72 | 78 | 76 | 74 | | Fraile | 78 | 68 | 78 | 73 | 75 | | Jungels | 78 | 72 | 78 | 74 | 75 |  Van Niekerk | 78 | 76 | 77 | 73 | 75 |  Politt | 78 | 73 | 76 | 70 | 73 |  Erdenebat | 78 | 75 | 79 | 77 | 78 |  Noia | 78 | 76 | 77 | 70 | 74 |
Dunbar will be the biggest favorite for the final TT, as he should survive the preceding stages well enough to not be to tired. He could also be a surprising leader after S2, if he can hold on with the best climbers. Behind him, the field is quite open, but Rekita, Dillier and Haugard should fight for the best places, making S6 an important one for the Swiss teams.
Prologue favorites not in this list are Schomber, Kopfauf and Faglum Karlsson.
| SP | AC | FL | ST | RS | | Howard | 80 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 67 | | Einhorn | 80 | 78 | 74 | 71 | 71 | | Van Asbroeck | 79 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 71 | | Afewerki | 79 | 80 | 73 | 77 | 70 | | Nur Hasan | 79 | 78 | 74 | 74 | 74 | | Coutinho | 79 | 80 | 72 | 75 | 74 |  Hayakawa | 79 | 79 | 73 | 75 | 68 | | Mareczko | 78 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 73 |  Losch | 78 | 79 | 73 | 72 | 68 | | Page | 78 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 72 | | Scott | 78 | 78 | 72 | 72 | 71 |
Howard and Einhorn are the identified favorites for the two sprint stages, though those are often not very predictable. All in all, all those on this list should be considered for stage glory. Recovery could also be important, the sprints coming after a mountain and a hilly stage.
Full startlist
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 08:37
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-03-2024 10:14
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More Oomen, that I like! Thanks for the preview.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 03-03-2024 11:02
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Man what was I thinking sending Dunbar here? I think it perfectly fit his RD’s. Have to hope and pray for a boring s2, or at least that Eastman just totally dominates and everyone else comes in together. Fingers crossed.
Thanks for the preview.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 03-03-2024 11:32
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Well some stage wins will be nice. Not sure why I made this a goal and didn’t send Madrazo… either way if we get decent points I’m happy. Let’s go boys! TT and sprint leader is strong. Hopefully it pays off
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 03-03-2024 18:30
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Hoping Ranaweera's TT training will pay off with a decent result here.
Thanks for the preview Imladrik.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 03-03-2024 21:53
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Pretty much the expected competition for Stüssi here. Eastman, Choi, Reis, Oomen and McNulty should take the Top 5 spots, so a lower Top 10 probably is what we can hope for. If Stüssi performs like in the Giro or TdS, this should be doable. He doesn't like prologues, but with 8.4km I'd suppose the opening stage is too long for the pure prologue specialists anyway.
Seeing Dunbar here, I guess it's an early conclusion that the gamble to send Rekita here didn't really pay off. I was hoping for a stage win, but that's likely not going to happen - and he's not even the only strong TTer here...
Page could do well in the sprints, or could get nothing at all - guess they'll be pretty random once again.
The only stage I'm really afraid of is the final one, which could be pretty ugly for the low-hill climbers. At least, Stüssi is still better than Eastman in that respect 
Good luck to all, and thanks for the preview!
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 03-03-2024 22:33
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Praying for this to not be a 0 pointer hopefully both Monsalve and Countinho will get something from this race!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 04-03-2024 00:42
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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I am going in a different direction than others on this - I think Dunbar has a got a shot to win. Stage 2 isn't that hard and the gaps could be small - two years ago Boswell only lost 1'37 to Amador, who I think was an 80 climber. Then Dunbar has a big advantage in the TT and is the best guy in the hills. The other one I would look to is Oomen, particularly if he rides like he did at TdS where he minimized his losses in a longer TT. Here he has the prologue which is in his favor. I fear for Eastman on the last stage although last time it didn't prove selective among the top GC guys. But new PCM version and much stronger field this year in HC so both stages could work out very differently.
Kind of a ToA preview with, I think Reis, Ranaweera, McNulty and Eastman all confirmed for the ToA. Bit surprised no Powless here.
Another Top 5 goal for us which is going to be harder to achieve than Suiss since I would add Dunbar and Ranaweera to the those Fab listed fighting for the top 5. We have had good luck here winning 2 stages 2 years ago and the GC last year, so hoping the home cooking continues to play in our favor.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 04-03-2024 05:16
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11675
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1861.50
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Choi has been doing well in every race and we hope he can keep the run going here. The support on the climbs is strong and we also hope Jungels can put in an improved showing in the ITTs. Hopeful we keep our momentum going.
Thanks for the preview 
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 04-03-2024 08:02
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
I am going in a different direction than others on this - I think Dunbar has a got a shot to win.
...
Kind of a ToA preview with, I think Reis, Ranaweera, McNulty and Eastman all confirmed for the ToA. Bit surprised no Powless here.
Dunbar could definitely be a threat if he loses less than a minute there. But I do think that Boswell's 1'37" two years ago was a pretty weird result, beating the likes of Barta, Costagli or Craddock on a MTF stage. As you say, the climber field was much weaker with only Amador as an 80 climber - so I suppose it'll be tough even for Stüssi (79) to lose less than a minute to the top climbers this year. So yeah, Dunbar could do really well (@Eden, I guess he's here because there weren't many better suited races in PTHC/HC), but he could also end up outside the Top 10. Just like most subtop climbers who can TT pretty well here.
And Powless is actually here, he's listed in the TTers section. There are also other strong climbers like Guldhammer or Min (probably some more), but I guess they didn't make the list due to their relative lack of TT skills.
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| MacC |
Posted on 04-03-2024 08:13
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Oh no, I don't like being the favourite!
It will be a tough race I am sure but yeah pretty much a must must win
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| MacC |
Posted on 04-03-2024 08:14
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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and thanks for a great preview!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 04-03-2024 09:13
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1090.00
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Geez, I was hoping Uwizeyima had a shot at some decent GC points but not in this field ... We couldn't fit a sprinter here either so hopefully we'll be very active in breakaways, perhaps take a shot at the KoM jersey. It's been a while since Moise Mugisha has been a breakaway regular, maybe he can pick it up again here. And on a good day, Politt has a shot at a couple of stage points in the TT.
Thanks for the preview, looking forward to the reports!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 04-03-2024 10:04
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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Happy I'm not here! Hope Glanbia can get that win, and also that Colombini gets a good result in their relegation battle
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| MacC |
Posted on 04-03-2024 10:42
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Fine start for Eastman. Congrats XERO!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 04-03-2024 11:05
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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Schomber is a legend. Reminds me of Quispe.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 04-03-2024 11:45
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Team Manager
Posts: 6508
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1090.00
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Whoa, comparisons to Quispe, that's a bit much, no?
Very very happy with that second place for Politt, that's exactly what we needed to have this be a successful race. Dunbar a shocker, even if his prologue stat isn't quite as strong as his TT, that's still really poor! Hopefully he can do better soon.
Congrats jandal and thanks for the very enjoyable TT report Imladrik!
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 04-03-2024 12:58
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
Joined: 05-10-2010
PCM$: 900.00
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Absolutely terrible. Not much else to say.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 04-03-2024 13:13
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4669
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Decent start by Rekita in his "weaker" discipline. Podium would've been great, but Politt (-2 in PRL) just had an awesome day. On the other hand, especially Kopfauf with another awful prologue, and Dunbar also clearly worse than expected. So 4th place is fine.
On the other hand, Stüssi with an expectedly bad result. Although I thought TT would be almost as important as PRL with almost 10km, but looks like I was wrong. He'll have to make up some time on stage 2 then.
But if stage 2 really is as unselective as UU expects it to be, Darbellay could actually be picked as our leader. Equally strong in the longer TT (or even better, given this year's results so far), he could also survive the hilly stages and actually be a pretty good option. We'll soon find out...
Congrats to Xero, looks like you're starting to be serious about that promotion thing 
Thanks for the report!
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 04-03-2024 13:59
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
Joined: 07-08-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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Schomber the goat
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