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1 Jour de Dunkerque - Discussion
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| seancoll |
Posted on 28-01-2024 14:51
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 1 Jour de Dunkerque
Dunkerque-Cassel
178.3km
C1
No matter how many “jours” de Dunkerque there are, the cobbled climbs up to Cassel always strike a formidable race. This year, as was true for the previous five, it’s just 1 jour here at the C1 level. There are 10 identical cobbled climbs on this race, each separated by a short road kicker and two short downhill sections. In some ways, this will likely be a race of attrition as more and more riders become gapped throughout the stage.
History
The five previous winners of the 1 Jour de Dunkerque are: Roger Kluge (2018), Guillaume Van Keirsbulck (2019 – riding for Lampre -Pinarello this year), Jerome Baugnies (2020), Joeri Stallaert (2021 – riding then and now for Bralirwa – Stevens), and Tiesj Benoot (2022). The race has also had 10 winners when the race was in its 5 day form. Of those, the only GC winner returning this year is 2015 winner Matteo Trentin.
Van Keirsbulck’s 2019 win is the most dominant of any of the 1-day editions as he carried 3:40 over 2nd place and 13:11 over 30th. Stallaert’s victory was much less decisive as he earned the win with a 0:07 second margin over 2nd place and just 4:44 over 30th. Benoot split the difference with a 1:03 victory last year.
Regardless, the group will absolutely whittle down throughout the race if history repeats again here.
| Name | FL | HI | ST | RS | CB | SP | AC | FG | Lukas  Spengler | 74 | 67 | 74 | 73 | 83 | 62 | 70 | 67 | Ruben  Zepuntke | 72 | 69 | 79 | 72 | 82 | 72 | 65 | 66 | Joeri  Stallaert | 77 | 67 | 76 | 68 | 81 | 79 | 76 | 67 | Nathan  Van Hooydonck | 73 | 71 | 75 | 74 | 81 | 61 | 72 | 64 | Danny  Summerhill | 76 | 71 | 73 | 69 | 81 | 68 | 70 | 79 | Edward  Theuns | 72 | 74 | 76 | 73 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 64 | Maxime  Daniel | 73 | 69 | 76 | 76 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 69 | Mekseb  Debesay | 75 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 79 | 69 | 78 | 73 | Patrick  Gamper | 77 | 66 | 77 | 77 | 79 | 63 | 71 | 72 |
One of the challenges in determining the favorites is estimating how much combined hill and cobble strength is needed. Obviously the cobble strength is a huge benefit, but if a rider does not have acceleration uphill, that’s going to be a real struggle. Thankfully, most of our favorites are also kings of stamina and shouldn’t struggle to maintain energy.
Spengler regularly shows at the top of cobble startlists, but races often seem not to go his way. He’s one of the weaker favorites if this race goes to a sprint and he’ll be managing the hills as opposed to attacking them. Still, he’s a step above the rest in regards to managing the uneven terrain which should be to his benefit.
Stallaert and Theuns have also gone head to head a number of times this year with mixed results. Theuns managed to survive a GP Wallonie hilly finish and now he gets to add in his cobble prowess while Stallaert has already proved he can win this race. Theuns will likely try to use the earlier hills to tire Stallaert given they’re the two biggest final sprint threats.
We’d be remiss to note that Debesay is also extremely strong on the hills compared to some of the other favorites. As an attacker, he might combine with someone like Summerhill to go for some early moves.
Every single one of these favorites should have a path to victory.
Secondary Favorites
| Name | FL | HI | ST | RS | CB | SP | AC | FG | Christoph  Taubel | 73 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 78 | 61 | 64 | 72 | | Guillaume Van Keirsbulck | 72 | 71 | 75 | 73 | 78 | 70 | 68 | 71 | Matteo  Trentin | 71 | 71 | 71 | 66 | 78 | 72 | 71 | 64 | Jo Kogstad  Ringheim | 72 | 67 | 75 | 71 | 78 | 73 | 75 | 66 | Lucas Manuel  Gaday | 71 | 75 | 75 | 72 | 78 | 71 | 73 | 61 | | Logan Owen | 73 | 69 | 73 | 71 | 78 | 64 | 71 | 68 | | Johan Jacobs | 76 | 69 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 67 | 67 | 71 | Clenne Morvan  Moulingui | 74 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 78 | 65 | 68 | 64 | Sameera  Chatarunga | 72 | 67 | 79 | 72 | 77 | 70 | 68 | 80 | | Jose Gerardo Ulloa | 72 | 70 | 73 | 72 | 77 | 68 | 68 | 68 | Tom  David | 73 | 74 | 75 | 73 | 77 | 69 | 72 | 67 | | Saya Kuroeda | 74 | 63 | 72 | 73 | 77 | 74 | 78 | 63 | Vegard  Breen | 76 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 77 | 72 | 70 | 73 | | Olli Kulppi | 73 | 67 | 73 | 69 | 77 | 65 | 70 | 63 | | Tom Bohli | 74 | 68 | 79 | 75 | 77 | 74 | 68 | 66 | | Iliyan Kolev | 75 | 62 | 73 | 71 | 77 | 62 | 67 | 71 |
For those in the 2nd tier of cobblers, we expect he need for hill strength to be of utmost importance. Gaday ranks highest in that category and can back that up with a 2022 4th place finish. With Owen as great cobble support, maybe they use their teamwork to come away with a surprise.
David is another major factor in this race as he’s finished 2nd twice in the past two years. He’s not quite at last year’s level so far, so who knows if he can try to repeat that or even take that final step to the top of the podium.
There’s a lot of wildcards in this section depending on how teams want to attack this race. We’ll leave the predictions and assumptions about team dynamics to others as they think about how the race may go.
Startlist:
| Last name | First name | 2023 Team | | Ballerstedt | Maurice | Adidas - Eurocash | | Gradek | Kamil | Adidas - Eurocash | | Osborne | Jason | Adidas - Eurocash | | Stepniak | Grzegorz | Adidas - Eurocash | | Laton | Eryk | Adidas - Eurocash | | Tracz | Szymon | Adidas - Eurocash | | Braun | Julian | Adidas - Eurocash | | Keup | Pierre-Pascal | Adidas - Eurocash | | Polanco | Steven Manuel | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Armirail | Bruno | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Agirrebeitia | Mikel | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Pacher | Quentin | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Wackermann | Luca | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Rodriguez | Cristian | Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren | | Stallaert | Joeri | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Teggart | Matthew | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Okbamariam | Tesfom | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Young | Darren | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Habimana | Jean Eric | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Berhe | Welay Hagos | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Van Eetvelt | Lennert | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Willems | Jago | Bralirwa - Stevens | | Domene | Ramon | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Barbero | Carlos | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Ezquerra | Jesus | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Guardini | Andrea | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Quevedo | Xavier | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Munoz | Daniel | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Balloni | Alfredo | Caja Rural Cycling Team | | Chatarunga | Sameera | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Rathe | Jakob | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Devriendt | Tom | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Van Den Bossche | Fabio | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Berckmoes | Jenno | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Kireva | Albert | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Rubenis | Pauls | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Smirnovs | Andris | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | | Debesay | Mekseb | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Vahtra | Norman | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Zegklis | Nikolaos | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Diaz Suarez | Andy Alihonay | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Montenegro | Santiago | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Kulikovskiy | Alexandr | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Orosco | Kemp | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Quaade | Rasmus | DuckDuckGo - Everesting | | Russo | Clement | Ekoi - Le Creuset | | Jiang | Zhihui | Ekoi - Le Creuset | | Delbove | Joris | Ekoi - Le Creuset | | Karatsivis | Panagiotis | Ekoi - Le Creuset | | Lammertink | Maurits | Ekoi - Le Creuset | | Le Gac | Olivier | Ekoi - Le Creuset | | Van Hooydonck | Nathan | Fastned | | Van der Hoorn | Taco | Fastned | | Robeet | Ludovic | Fastned | | Bovenhuis | Jasper | Fastned | | Duric | Dorde | Fastned | | Renard | Alexis | Fastned | | Pluimers | Rick | Fastned | | van Sintmaartensdijk | Roel | Fastned | | Taubel | Christoph | JEWA TIROL | | Schlechter | Pit | JEWA TIROL | | Livyns | Arjen | JEWA TIROL | | Laurance | Axel | JEWA TIROL | | Selig | Rüdiger | JEWA TIROL | | Rabitsch | Stephan | JEWA TIROL | | Malori | Adrian | JEWA TIROL | | Muhlberger | Gregor | JEWA TIROL | | Theuns | Edward | Jura GIANTS | | Kosic | Nejc | Jura GIANTS | | Tediashvili | Giorgi | Jura GIANTS | | Bakke Christophersen | Cedric | Jura GIANTS | | Stehli | Felix | Jura GIANTS | | Page | Hugo | Jura GIANTS | | Davies | Scott | Jura GIANTS | | Raugala | Gustas | Jura GIANTS | | Daniel | Maxime | Lampre - Pinarello | | Van Keirsbulck | Guillaume | Lampre - Pinarello | | Kumara | Amith Udaya | Lampre - Pinarello | | Thwaites | Scott | Lampre - Pinarello | | Rowe | Luke | Lampre - Pinarello | | Riesebeek | Oscar | Lampre - Pinarello | | Medvedev | Sergey | Lampre - Pinarello | | Camrda | Karel | Lampre - Pinarello | | Gamper | Patrick | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Verwilst | Aaron | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Biermans | Jenthe | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Siddikov | Dilmurdjon | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Van Aert | Wout | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Calzoni | Walter | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Piccolo | Andrea | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Weemaes | Sasha | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | Zepuntke | Ruben | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Ulloa | Jose Gerardo | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Nareklishvili | Beka | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Hollmann | Juri | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Abolaji | Fatiu | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Moutsios | Martinos | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Aguilar Mendez | Jose Pablo | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Galvan Ramirez | Oscar Samuel | Los Pollos Hermanos | | Trentin | Matteo | Saeco | | McLay | Dan | Saeco | | Silva | Pedro | Saeco | | Franco | Alejandro | Saeco | | Skivild | Robin Juel | Saeco | | Zambanini | Edoardo | Saeco | | Blanca Pareja | Nichol | Saeco | | Verre | Alessandro | Saeco | | David | Tom | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Schoonbroodt | Bob | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Marzuki | Nur Amirul | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Ghani | Muhammad Suhaimi | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Rossi | Diego | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Giulietti | Luigi | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Hibatullah | Jamal | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Pellaud | Simon | Sauber Petronas Racing | | Ringheim | Jo Kogstad | Sony - Force India | | Kuroeda | Saya | Sony - Force India | | Kuroeda | Shiki | Sony - Force India | | Havik | Piotr | Sony - Force India | | Kooistra | Marten | Sony - Force India | | Hayter | Leo | Sony - Force India | | Goh | Choon Huat | Sony - Force India | | Alben | Esow | Sony - Force India | | Gaday | Lucas Manuel | Strava | | Owen | Logan | Strava | | Sbaragli | Kristian | Strava | | Tarvis | Peeter | Strava | | Kreder | Wesley | Strava | | Maesen | William | Strava | | Breen | Vegard | Tafjord Kraft | | Kulppi | Olli | Tafjord Kraft | | Kaislavuo | Jesse | Tafjord Kraft | | Eriksson | Lucas | Tafjord Kraft | | Belevics | Arturs | Tafjord Kraft | | Bertilsson | Christian | Tafjord Kraft | | Spengler | Lukas | Team UBS - Tissot | | Jacobs | Johan | Team UBS - Tissot | | Bohli | Tom | Team UBS - Tissot | | Schäppi | Martin | Team UBS - Tissot | | Grand | Arnaud | Team UBS - Tissot | | Blum | Elia | Team UBS - Tissot | | Balmer | Alexandre | Team UBS - Tissot | | Brun | Nils | Team UBS - Tissot | | Moulingui | Clenne Morvan | Trans Looney Tunes | | Kolev | Iliyan | Trans Looney Tunes | | Centrone | Ivan | Trans Looney Tunes | | Lecourt De Billot | Olivier | Trans Looney Tunes | | Peng | Yuan Tan | Trans Looney Tunes | | Doull | Owain | Trans Looney Tunes | | Murn | Bostjan | Trans Looney Tunes | | Tulett | Ben | Trans Looney Tunes | | Summerhill | Danny | Tryg - Gobik | | Blume Levy | William | Tryg - Gobik | | Honore | Mikkel | Tryg - Gobik | | Kaloniatis | Georgios | Tryg - Gobik | | Frison | Frederik | Tryg - Gobik | | Pedrero | Antonio | Tryg - Gobik | | Currie | Logan | Tryg - Gobik | | Girmay | Biniam | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Welten | Bram | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Silva | Nihal | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Pickrell | Riley | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Jussaume | Tristan | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Canal | Carlos | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Ryuki | Uga | Zwift Pro Cycling | | Carr | Simon | Zwift Pro Cycling |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 28-01-2024 18:53
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Nothing to hope for us except maybe some time in the break until the cobbles start. But it's a French race ...
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 28-01-2024 19:02
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
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Thanks for the preview!
With the way our cobbles campaign have been going I don't envision us getting a huge result, Theuns for the win probably.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 28-01-2024 19:24
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World Champion
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Probably a bit too hilly for Gamper, but we'll see. Thanks for the preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 28-01-2024 22:10
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Posts: 4669
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On paper, this looks like the perfect race for Theuns, having the best Cob/Hi/Spr mix. But we've just seen in Roma Maxima that a lot comes down to daily form as well, so I wouldn't even be overly surprised to see e.g. Gaday take it all...
A Top 5 obviously still must be the minimum goal, and a podium is actually expected on such a course.
Thanks for the preview, good luck to everyone!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 05:04
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 29-01-2024 07:53
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kandesbunzler26 wrote:
Nothing to hope for us except maybe some time in the break until the cobbles start. But it's a French race ...
Same here!
Thank you seancoll for the preview and good luck to those who have something to play!
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 29-01-2024 08:22
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Posts: 3367
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Thanks for the preview, sean!
Purely looking at cobble stat, Zepuntke should be amongst the favourites. Although I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2020 for our team, I think a top-10 goal is more realistic. Top-5 would be great. Good luck to all.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 29-01-2024 10:15
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Stallaert won the race two years ago and came 3rd last year, so I am hopeful he can do well here despite his obvious lack of quality on hills. But the field is much tougher I think than it was before, and it's a different game engine, too. I'll be happy with anything in the Top 5 range, and disappointed with less than, say, 7th. That hopefully shouldn't be too much to ask.
Thanks a lot for the preview, and good luck everyone!
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 29-01-2024 11:34
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Directeur Sportif
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Probably missed a trick not sending Benoot here and Ringheim instead but we hope the latter and the rest can continue getting the cobbles depth results.
Thanks for the preview 
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 29-01-2024 12:32
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Go Sameera! 
Thanks sean for the preview!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 29-01-2024 23:07
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Posts: 4669
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Ouch... Definitely didn't see such a failure coming. Theuns likely was the strongest here, and should just have waited for the final dash up to the line. Top 5 was the minimum goal, so 7th is a failure, can't label it otherwise.
It's not the end of the world, and having rocked other races previously with his successful attacks, can't really blame him for failing one. Still sucks, but hopefully he'll learn his lesson for Kigali.
Big congrats to sammy, was about time that David finally found his best legs!
Thanks for the report.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 29-01-2024 23:45
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Hmm, could have been worse. Luckily Eriksson was there when Breen and Kaislavuo failed.
Congrats sammy, nice win there!
Thank you Sean for the detailed and good reporting! |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 30-01-2024 00:02
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Posts: 2905
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Thanks for a great report!
We at least tried to make the game interesting but I guess Daniel was just unable to do his thing like he has been all year. With this whiff I think that promotion is fully out of the question with half a season to be run, time to start PCT planning already I guess. Daniel really not worth the pretty penny we're paying him sadly.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 30-01-2024 07:28
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World Champion
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Missing the top 10 is definitely below expectations, even with the hills. Thanks for the report!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Blasing |
Posted on 30-01-2024 08:07
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Best ranked rider on 41. What a shame this race was for us 
Manager of JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 30-01-2024 09:26
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What a really nice race! I was hesitant about seeing Okbamariam in the breakaway, but Teggart alone was enough support (he's doing such great work as a domestique this year), and Okbamariam did well to survive for as long as can reasonably expected up ahead. However, the story of the race (well, apart from the final result of course) for us was Jean Eric Habimana. What a phenomenal ride from the neo-pro!
Slightly unfortunate that he ended up one place outside of the points, he would have deserved one, but looking at points, obviously Stallaert's 3rd place more than makes up for that. Early in the final climb it looked like he would fade and finish around 7th or 8th place and I couldn't have been mad with that. But then he really found another gear, as the report put it. He must've felt very strong on the day.
Congrats sammy, massive result and maybe enough to avoid the relegation battle at least for a while. Van Hooydonck also continues to prove his strength and consistency. Lastly, thanks a lot for the very nice report sean, it was a pleasure to read.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 30-01-2024 09:47
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Great ride by Shiki, taking on leadership in a rare blip for Ringheim this season. The latter still got a Top 20, which is nice. Really hard to say if Benoot would've done better and how the team would've reacted if he was the leader. Got my hopes up a bit when I saw that we had three riders in that selection, but still a decent result for us here.
Congrats to sammy and thanks for the report
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 30-01-2024 13:02
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I'll take that fifth place from Zepuntke For a second I thought he would lose a lot of places on the final uphill sector, but he held on amazingly with a good finish after some good teamwork by the domestiques earlier in the race. A shame Ulloa didn't manage to finish a bit closer to the top-10, but we'll take what we get.
Congratulations to sammy and thank you very much for the entertaining report to sean!
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 30-01-2024 20:52
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Congrats to sammy for the win and thanks to sean for the preview and report!
This one was spot on. And Russo only missed the points by 40 places ...
Edited by kandesbunzler26 on 30-01-2024 21:03
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 30-01-2024 20:57
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From the distance, the Sauber and cycleYorkshire jerseys may look a bit similar, but ryan wasn't actually allowed to race here 
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