Welcome to Switzerland - that tiny country with four official languages - welcome to the 16th edition of the Tour de Suisse! We have gathered in the Gottardo Arena, Quinto, usually home to local ice hockey club HC Ambrì Piotta. The first two stages will start from here - but today we're assisting the official rider presentation of the race!
This 16th edition is one that started with a big surprise - or disappointment, depending on the point of view - when MGUCI revealed their 2022 calendar, as the unthinkable happened and the race got downgraded to the PTHC category - while at the same time being cut back by two stages. While plans were obviously ready for the standard 9-day event, the organizers had to adapt to the new situation - and this is the route they came up with:
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As you can see, there's almost a complete lack of the classic multi-climb alpine stages, and there's just one hilly stage this year. Given the potential lack of selectivity, the closing ITT might become even more crucial that it traditionally is anyway.
Racing will kick off tomorrow with a prologue from Quinto to Ambrì, followed by the queen stage to Crans Montana. However, although we're in the Gottardo Arena today, and the San Gottardo is nearby, the riders won't need to tackle that iconic climb. Instead, they'll climb to the Nufenen Pass, which is already the highest point of the entire tour. The final climb up to Crans Montana will already give us a clear picture of who's left in GC contention. Stage 2 will be a transition from Ticino to Valais - or from Italian to French.
The peloton will however not spend the night in Crans Montana, as stage 3 starts by the shores of Lake Geneva, way down the valley. During day 3, the riders will cross another language border, to arrive in the Swiss German part - the largest one - of the country. After a ride along the shores of Lake Thun and then Lake Brienz, they'll climb up to Hasliberg, but re-descend to Meiringen for the stage finish.
Day 4 should finally be the first opportunity for the sprinters to shine, as we head from the Bernese Oberland to Central Switzerland - the historical origin of Switzerland - with the finish in Buochs by the shores of Lake Lucerne. Yep, there are quite some lakes in Switzerland - we'll get to see more of those than of the mountains this year.
Stage 5 again starts in the canton of Bern, more precisely in Huttwil, and the riders will arrive in Tobel-Tägerschen after more than 200 mostly bumpy kilometers. Not every sprinter will be looking forward to this stage - and even less to the slightly uphill finish in the canton of Thurgau. No lake this time, but the Thur river, giving the canton its name, isn't too far away.
The pure climbers will then get one final chance to gain some time on the stronger time triallists on day 6 - which starts and ends abroad. Vaduz is the capital of the Principality of Liechtenstein, while Serfaus-Fiss-Ladis is a ski resort in Tyrol, Austria. Although hilly-rated, the riders will face the second highest climb of the race mid-stage, the Flüela Pass - and the climb up to Serfaus will likely be too long for the pure puncheurs as well. However, the rather flat run-in to the finish suggests that gaps probably won't be extremely big.
So it will probably all come down to the final day, where the riders come back to Switzerland - but only just, as Schaffhausen is close to the German border, which the riders will almost cross during the stage. Everyone will be on his own - and the short climb up the Opfertshofner hill will ensure that those with tired legs will really suffer.
In the end, an allrounder will stand on top of the podium, as the pure climbers likely won't have enough chances to gain some time. Although it's a Tour de Suisse that's clearly on the very easy side compared to most other editions, we'll surely have an exciting race - and maybe even one that will be decided on the final meters!
But who might our winner be? As we'll see in a moment, two former winners are coming back, and both will at least be on the extended favorites list. So let's take a look at who has made the trip to Switzerland:
Tier I
Rider
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
Fgh
DH
PRL
Morton
84
76
73
79
78
78
67
68
68
73
Kudus
84
77
72
79
77
79
70
70
67
72
Despite the potentially big impact of the closing TT, we decided to go for this duo as our top favorites, given that they're just one level above the rest in the mountains - and both are strong puncheurs as well, and have a very good physical condition.
Morton has one big advantage over his presumed main rival - the team support. Carthy is strong enough to go for GC results in TT-less races, and he'll be the Aussie's key domestique here. Williams is a strong climber as well - this trio has the potential to tear apart the entire race in the mountains.
And the latter is actually stronger than Kudus' best domestique, who is Prado. Let's see if the Mexican has enough in his legs to actually support his team leader, or if the lack of team support could cost the Eritrean dearly.
Other than that, the two top climbers are very evenly matched - including their skills on the TT bike, which is obviously what gives the next tier riders some hopes to pull off the win here.
Tier II
Rider
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
Fgh
DH
PRL
Haig
82
74
77
76
75
78
73
70
67
77
Bernal
81
74
78
80
80
82
69
64
69
76
Taaramäe
81
74
77
73
74
70
70
66
66
75
Shikai
81
71
76
74
76
78
67
59
69
76
Choi
81
74
75
77
76
79
68
68
71
74
Pluchkin
81
71
75
72
72
70
68
63
62
75
All of these riders are weaker climbers than the top duo - but all are faster against the clock. All in all, it's difficult to say who will have the upside - it might indeed come down to daily form on the closing stage.
It will be a special situation for Amaysim, as their current GC leader Haig will ride against their now former star Morton. The former is the "best of the rest" in terms of climbing, slightly stronger than the rest of Tier II. While he isn't the best in the long ITT, he's the fastest prologue rider among them - and he's definitely a podium contender. And while he doesn't have top-notch climbers as support riders, O'Connor, Power, Canty and Harper at least provide some valuable depth. On the downside, they only bring 6 riders here, so the climbers might even have to work on the flat.
Which holds for Bernal as well, who moreover should have an easy win in the U25 classification. The Colombian is the best TTer in this list - and he has just amazing energy levels. And he'll indeed have to rely almost exclusively on his own strength, as only Carpenter is a somewhat decent support rider for the mountains.
Next on the list is a living legend - and a legend that keeps on winning still! Having won Tour de Suisse twice already, he could become the lone triple winner this year - and the first back-to-back champion as well. While the Estonian is still a great climber and time triallist, his physical condition has declined lately - it was still enough to win the other Swiss stage race, Romandie, this year. He rightfully stands high up on the favorites list - and should have enough support to be successful here. Conci, Soler and Keinath all are capable climbers - the former might also target a great U25 result.
Shikai isn't far off the previously presented trio, either - just a tad slower in TTs, and the weakest puncheur so far. But as we see, the field is so evenly matched that the Chinese definitely has his chances as well! However, having only Shirota as a somewhat decent climber by his side might leave him isolated earlier than some of his rivals.
Is it allowed to list a Hong Kong native next to a Chinese? We'll do it anyway... Choi is another very similar rider - slightly slower in TTs still, but slightly better in terms of physical condition. And in terms of team support? Not the strongest, but not too weak, either, as Raileanu and Xandri both are solid clibmers.
And last but not least, the other returning former winner. Well, is there actually a mountainous stage race that Pluchkin has never won? In this year's PCT "Fight of the Legends", we currently have a clear winner in Taaramäe, but maybe the Moldovan can upset everyone here? His weaknesses are hills and energy, but on a good day he can still keep up with pretty much every other listed rider in the mountains and in TTs. His support cast is similar to Choi's, with Rikunov and Andriafenomananiaina being similar riders to Raileanu and Xandri. Let's see if he still has one big win in his legs!
Tier III
Rider
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
Fgh
DH
PRL
Barguil
81
75
70
77
77
82
75
66
76
70
Carthy
81
75
67
77
76
78
69
65
65
65
Berhane
81
75
66
77
74
73
68
67
71
65
Keizer
79
69
79
72
76
74
70
70
59
79
Geoghegan Hart
79
74
76
76
74
75
69
70
70
76
Wirtgen
78
75
81
76
75
75
72
73
64
80
We have two types of riders in this tier - the strong climbers being rather weak on the TT bike, and the slightly weaker climbers who are strong against the clock. And given this year's route, it's hard to say which one of these riders will perform best.
Barguil - home team UBS' GC leader - is the best TTer among the remaining 81 climbers, and he furthermore has a great kick that could bring him some valuable bonus seconds in reduced bunch sprints.
Carthy was already mentioned before - he'll very likely be used as a lieutenant for Morton, but could be a contender for a strong GC result as well.
Berhane looks to be the weakest of this trio, being the worst TTer and having some rather low energy stats compared to the others. But well, one great day on stage 2, and even he'll attack the podium spots!
This could be even more the case for the next three riders. If any of them can keep up with the best in the uphill stages, all of them could be in the mix for a GC podium. Looking at the overall skillset of these riders, Wirtgen might actually have the best chances, but Keizer and Geoghegan Hart surely will want to have their say as well.
Outsiders
Rider
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
Fgh
DH
PRL
Kirsch
79
74
71
75
73
75
67
62
62
71
Roglic
79
75
71
73
74
73
72
71
70
69
Pogacar
78
75
74
77
78
78
71
69
66
73
Lunke
78
72
73
76
74
78
64
68
69
76
Almeida
78
70
71
75
77
76
71
67
71
71
Karnulin
78
74
70
76
75
77
70
54
73
70
Smith
78
75
68
72
74
75
74
75
71
65
Williams
78
74
66
72
76
76
74
75
72
66
Sosnitskiy
78
72
64
73
77
68
73
66
77
64
Frankiny
78
76
64
72
75
77
75
71
66
67
Petelin
78
74
62
70
71
71
75
72
61
61
Powless
77
72
78
76
74
76
71
64
65
78
Conci
77
74
77
76
75
78
68
63
71
77
Fung
77
71
76
69
73
75
71
71
67
74
There's a plethora of riders who could also be in the fight for a Top 10 spot. Kirsch and Roglic are the best climbers left - time will tell if the former is indeed his team's designated GC leader, or if he'll try to bring Wirtgen home with as little time lost as possible.
Pogacar is an interesting rider for the U25 standings, given that he's probably leading his team. Conci and Fung are stronger on the TT bike, but might both be on domestique duties.
The dark horse on this list could be Powless, as he's among the very best against the clock, and should be getting his team's support as well.
Now that we've covered the most probable GC contenders - it'd actually be a surprise to see some other rider in the final Top 10 - let's take a look at the favorites for the other categories of stages:
Puncheurs
Rider
Mo
Hi
Res
Spr
Acc
Buchmann
76
81
74
65
73
Ponzi
69
80
66
72
74
Di Maggio
63
80
65
63
72
Reichenbach
72
78
67
62
67
Kudus
84
77
77
63
70
Raileanu
77
77
73
59
70
Hirschi
75
77
77
66
73
Smirnovs
68
77
69
72
78
Duchesne
67
77
72
69
79
Pellaud
65
77
68
65
70
Admittedly, the route doesn't offer a lot of fun stages for puncheurs, and therefore not many of the world's strongest hill riders have come here. The puncheurs - at least those with somewhat decent climbing skills - should have their best chances on stages 3 and 6 - but maybe the bumpy stage 5 will tire the sprinters so much that a puncheur still could have the upside.
Buchmann is not only the strongest hills rider, he's also the most well-rounded of them. He might indeed be eyeing stages 2 and 6 - which however GC favorite Kudus probably does as well. The three Swiss riders on the list - Reichenbach, Hirschi and Pellaud - will probably be hoping for some breakaway success, likely on the same two stages.
Ponzi and Smirnovs are the strongest sprinters among these puncheurs and may want to spoil things for the pure sprinters on day 5.
Sprinters
Rider
Fl
Hi
Res
Spr
Acc
PRL
Moser
72
67
69
80
79
72
Hayakawa
73
65
68
79
79
50
Abdul Halil
68
60
66
79
77
64
Aniolkowski
74
65
73
78
77
59
Cisse
74
63
67
78
77
65
Zhao
74
65
74
77
81
78
Redecker
73
72
67
77
78
63
Ovsyannikov
72
68
72
77
76
64
Rojus
73
67
72
77
76
73
Welten
74
68
69
77
75
59
Barbari
71
63
69
76
79
70
Kuroeda
72
70
77
76
73
63
Let's talk about those "pure sprinters" then. Given that there only are two stages for them in 7 days - with Zhao arguing that he's so strong in prologues that he can target three of them - it's no surprise that we have a weak sprinter field here. I mean, a really weak one.
Moser should be the fastest, with Hayakawa and Abdul Halil not far off. Aniolkowski and Cisse, who both are pretty strong on the flat, go next.
We then have Zhao, who is a candidate for the race's first yellow jersey - and given that he could potentiall score in three stages, he might also be among the favorites for the points standings. His other big plus is his great acceleration.
But we all know that sprints are mostly about positioning and timing, and so all of Redecker - the strongest hills rider listed - Ovsyannikov, Rojus, Welten, Barbari and Kuroeda could end up winning a stage.
And given this really weak sprinter lineup, we clearly can't rule out some surprise sprint winners, either - or we could even see some late attackers being successful.
Time Triallists
Rider
Fl
Mo
TT
Res
PRL
Wirtgen
73
78
81
75
80
Mullen
75
62
81
74
78
Sütterlin
71
59
80
77
80
Dillier
70
51
80
77
79
Viennet
72
54
80
75
80
Howson
71
59
80
74
80
Hepburn
71
64
79
77
79
Haugard
72
57
79
77
79
Keizer
70
79
79
76
79
Tanfield
73
59
79
75
79
Mano
71
72
79
73
77
Beniusis
71
69
79
73
78
Oliveira
70
70
79
72
79
Razumov
74
63
79
72
79
Kittel
73
53
79
67
79
Bernal
71
81
78
80
76
Dumoulin
71
59
78
76
78
Atkins
75
54
78
75
77
Powless
72
77
78
74
78
Kukrle
72
68
78
74
79
Krul
76
63
78
73
78
Quaade
71
54
78
70
76
Golovash
72
60
78
69
78
Hamza
74
52
76
73
79
Prado
72
77
74
73
78
Zhao
74
58
66
74
78
If the sprinter field is weak, the same definitely can't be said about time triallists. Wirtgen even is one of the world's strongest riders against the clock - and given his overall skillset should be the big favorite for the closing TT.
Mullen, Sütterlin, Dillier, Viennet, Howson are all very strong time triallists as well - but they might be dreading the short climb up the Opfertshofner hill, potentially killing their chances for a stage win. Instead, riders like Keizer, Bernal or Powless could use this part of the TT to their advantage. And there are many more of the GC riders narrowly missing out on this list - let's see who wins the fight specialists vs. allrounders!
At the bottom of the list, we also have three riders who don't really qualify for the TTers presentation, but they're strong in prologues. Most strong TTers are so, too, and so a separate list seemed like overkill.
U25 Contenders
Rider
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
Fgh
DH
PRL
Bernal
81
74
78
80
80
82
69
64
69
76
Pogacar
78
75
74
77
78
78
71
69
66
73
Almeida
78
70
71
75
77
76
71
67
71
71
Conci
77
74
77
76
75
78
68
63
71
77
Fung
77
71
76
69
73
75
71
71
67
74
Girdlestone
77
72
74
77
73
75
68
68
65
74
Rikunov
77
73
74
73
71
74
66
63
74
76
Lasinis
75
71
72
71
71
72
68
67
69
72
Osorio
75
71
70
71
70
72
67
62
64
66
Lopez Nolasco
75
68
69
69
68
71
69
73
68
67
Hirschi
75
77
66
77
77
75
73
80
76
66
Pronskiy
75
71
63
72
71
75
71
71
70
63
Phodingam
75
72
61
69
70
71
71
74
70
61
I still have a soft spot for talents, so they just had to be included in the preview. As mentioned before, Bernal is the overwhelming favorite for the white jersey - not only is he the best climber and time triallist on this list, but he'll also get full team support.
Which might be the case as well for Pogacar and Almeida, though - these two hence are the most obvious podium contenders. But beware, as Conci and Fung do have some TT advantage over them!
And that's all you need to know - besides the full startlist, of course! Just one last statistical detail before presenting it: there will be 7 Swiss riders at the start line tomorrow - three each for local teams Sauber and Team UBS, while a lone wolf is riding for Binance as well. But now:
Haig was not too impressive in Austria most recently, but this race in the neighbour country suits him pretty well (again). Fighting for the last podium spot simply must be the goal (again) - just avoid a bad day in the key stages
Thank you Fab for a great in-depth preview!! Always appreciate the time and effort of a good write-up.
For us, I obviously have hope that Taaramae can go back to back and win it but it'll be a big ask against the two big gun climbers and then the likes of Haig and Co also. If the gaps in the Mountains and the Hills can be minimised then it'll be all down to that last TT which he may suffer in a bit with the energy stats.
The underdog Conci is always a shout in a race like this too. If he manages to keep with the leaders group through the mountains and hills then the final stage could suit him very well.
This feels like a wildcard race for me even though it's PTHC. It feels that way because I don't think we'll come away with much of anything, so expectations are very low.
Really interesting startlist. Could be one of the most open GC fights in a PT(HC) mountain stage race in a long time. Curious to see who comes out on top.
Guess that's a solid result for Haig. Obviously not the best possible performance, but looking at the GC riders, he did quite okay. Just a minor step, for sure, though.
We don't have any realistic GC ambitions here, but there could be space for some success. GReat first day for us with Howson in the last place of the podium and Almeida riding into the top20. I'm not sure I would have prefered him to lay low in GC and try and go for an early attack in the next couple of days though. Let's see.
Congrats on the win SN and thanks for the comprehensive preview and beautiful prologue report Fab!
First of all, thanks for the fantastic preview! We're here mainly for stages, as Keizer hasn't really proben himself to be a reliable stage racer so far this season. Hoped Sütterlin would start the race off with a great prologue, but the reality was a bit different sadly If Keizer is actually serious about going for a decent GC, his opening was pretty decent.
Really awesome report, it was really fun to follow the chaos of the last 1.6km ramp towards the finish line like that
I’m a Tao fan, so it’s good to see him showing what he’s capable of here. Almeida being up there is good to see as well. If only Powless could have held on a bit longer
What an awesome report, and likewise the first HUGE performance by Tao for us. This way we're very well set for the race, that's what we signed (and trained) him for. Awesome ride and a worthy Phinney "replacement" for us. Stellar!
Tour de Suisse 
Guess we’ll see what happens!
If Keizer is actually serious about going for a decent GC, his opening was pretty decent.
