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Tour of Chile - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 19-01-2023 01:59
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Directeur Sportif
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 Tour of Chile
Welcome to the third edition of the Tour of Chile. A tasting menu of a cycling race, with a sample each of flat, hilly and mountain flavors in the 3 stages. The prior winners, Frankiny and Cort Neilsen are both climbers with some ability in the hills, so expect a similar rider to buff up their PPRD this year. The sprinters missed out on their pick of the menu last year when Patrick Müller led a breakaway home in the first stage for UBS.
 Frankiny is back to defend his title but despite the race staying at the C1 level he finds himself a long way down the favorites list. Last year he beat some stronger climbers by making a bold attack from 5k out stick on stage 3, that will be harder this time.
The Climbers
| Nat. | Name | MO | HI | RS | SP | AC |  |  Madrazo | 83 | 74 | 77 | 61 | 69 |  |  Padun | 82 | 77 | 74 | 60 | 75 |  |  Berhane | 81 | 75 | 74 | 62 | 68 |  |  Oomen | 81 | 75 | 77 | 65 | 69 |  |  Aular | 81 | 72 | 75 | 63 | 69 |  | Pluchkin | 81 | 71 | 72 | 63 | 68 | |  Alarcon | 81 | 70 | 69 | 56 | 73 |  |  Guldhammer | 80 | 76 | 74 | 69 | 75 |  |  Penasa | 80 | 74 | 72 | 57 | 76 |  |  Carapaz | 80 | 71 | 76 | 56 | 65 |  |  Beltran | 79 | 81 | 72 | 66 | 76 |  |  Areruya | 79 | 81 | 78 | 68 | 76 |  |  Arndt | 79 | 76 | 76 | 71 | 75 |  |  Min | 79 | 76 | 77 | 62 | 66 | | Nerz | 79 | 71 | 70 | 63 | 66 | |  Mas | 78 | 77 | 74 | 60 | 77 |  | Frankiny | 78 | 76 | 75 | 61 | 75 | | Ndayisenga | 78 | 75 | 68 | 63 | 73 |  |  Elissonde | 78 | 73 | 77 | 55 | 66 | | Gregaard | 78 | 71 | 75 | 63 | 70 | | Ablenado | 78 | 67 | 77 | 51 | 65 | | Manfredi | 78 | 65 | 73 | 62 | 73 |
Most of the riders on this list are probably strong enough to survive the hills although Pluchkin, Alarcon, Nerz, Manfredi, and Ablenado may all lack the strength in the hills and/or back up stats to stay competitive in the hilly stage.
Beltran, who finished 2nd last year and Areruya, are by far the best puncheurs among the top climbers. They will hope to gain an edge on Stage 2 and make it stick on Stage 3. Arndt with his finishing ability will be looking to grab bonus seconds on both stages. Of the true climbers, Padun stands out as the best balanced. He will hope to move up from 3rd last year. If the mountain stage turns into a true battle of attrition then Madrazo becomes the favorite.
The Puncheurs
The top two hill riders are in the climbers list but there are a number of other strong riders in this group, including the winner of Stage 2 last year,  Moscon, who will be looking to get his season back on track. Although with all the strong GC contenders the pure puncheurs might struggle to get position on Stage 2, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some of them go in the breaks.
| Nat. | Name | MO | HI | RS | SP | AC | | Aranburu | 77 | 79 | 79 | 68 | 71 |  | Chernetskiy | 71 | 79 | 69 | 63 | 71 |  | De Plus | 76 | 79 | 73 | 61 | 72 | |  Chaves | 76 | 79 | 73 | 60 | 72 |  |  Edmondson | 69 | 79 | 72 | 70 | 76 | | Moscon | 73 | 79 | 77 | 59 | 73 | | Gaudu | 71 | 78 | 75 | 68 | 70 | | Slagter | 77 | 78 | 72 | 60 | 70 |  | Watson | 65 | 78 | 72 | 62 | 72 |
Aranburu should probably be viewed as a GC rider as he is just a little weaker in the mountains than those in the first table. However, his weaker finishing handicaps him against the other hills riders and he may be tasked to support Guldhammer. De Plus and Slagter will likely also be support riders. Edmondson is by far the best finisher among the pure puncheurs but his mountain and support stats aren’t great. Meurisse doesn’t quite make this the cut for inclusion in this table but his skill set might make him a threat for Stage 2 and he has form when it comes to pulling off surprising victories.
For the others on this list it is hard to see them besting Areruya and Beltran at the finish on Stage 2 or sticking with the likes of Madrazo on stage 3.
The Sprinters
With only 1 sprint stage, not a tremendously deep field in Chile which also increases the chances they don’t make the catch. But if they do the top favorites are the mercurial Bonifazio and Tour de Romandie stage winner Carsi.
| Nat. | Name | FL | HI | RS | SP | AC |  | Carsi | 70 | 55 | 69 | 80 | 82 | | Bonifazio | 79 | 66 | 75 | 80 | 80 |  |  Kalaba | 74 | 69 | 72 | 79 | 79 |  | Riabushenko | 76 | 68 | 74 | 79 | 77 |  | Kennett | 75 | 65 | 76 | 79 | 78 | | Vingerling | 71 | 62 | 66 | 79 | 79 |  | Stepniak | 71 | 66 | 68 | 78 | 77 | | Mareczko | 74 | 61 | 73 | 78 | 77 |  | Cohen | 73 | 65 | 69 | 77 | 76 |  | Zhao | 74 | 65 | 74 | 77 | 81 | | Stocker | 75 | 65 | 73 | 76 | 77 | | Mudgway | 70 | 64 | 66 | 76 | 78 |  |  Sinclair | 70 | 61 | 70 | 76 | 75 |
189 riders from 24 teams take the start line including 7 CT teams.
Startlist:
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 19-01-2023 03:16
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Tour de France Champion
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Always gonna be a crazy startlist for a C1 race when it's only 3 stages. Almost every leader can afford to sleep this one in as a final race in planning.
No real expectations because of the stacked startlist, but Guldhammer and Aranburu are as good a duo as any on paper for these parcours, so they better be in the mix. Not much depth scoring available at C1, so really I hope we get a lucky break and finish near the top.
Thanks for a terrific preview Ulrich!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 19-01-2023 03:38
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Team Leader
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Edmondson could get a good result in the hills and maybe a top 10 for Mudgway in the sprints. Not expecting anything in the GC here though. Schultz will do his best.
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Posted on 22-11-2024 09:56
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 19-01-2023 05:46
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Similar expectations to Romandie I guess. The startlist is even stronger but so is our team. Top 10 would be great for Penasa.
Thanks for the preview Ulrich 
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| redordead |
Posted on 19-01-2023 07:16
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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Another race for Beltran 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 19-01-2023 07:35
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Another big opportunity for Madrazo to make up for his disappointing season so far. We really need him to step up, and he's got all the support he can ask for. Both final climbs are fairly short, which doesn't suit him super well, so I don't necessarily expect him to win it, but he has to be in the mix at least, and not dropping before 5-7 others do. Looking forward to this anxiously ...
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 19-01-2023 08:30
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World Champion
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Oomen with De Plus in support should be a contender for the podium here. Also liking our chances for the flat stage.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| MacC |
Posted on 19-01-2023 09:02
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Sprinter
Posts: 1594
Joined: 15-07-2008
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Glanbia's only mission here is to avoid a zero-pointer
Thanks Ulrich, good luck all
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 19-01-2023 09:21
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
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Hoping these profiles suit Arndt.
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 19-01-2023 10:20
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 808
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MacC wrote:
Glanbia's only mission here is to avoid a zero-pointer
Thanks Ulrich, good luck all
Hé, same.
If we could better feel the breaks than in Romandie, that would be nice.
Thanks for the preview! |
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 19-01-2023 10:22
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Same as Romandie for us, hoping to score with Carapaz and Carsi.
Thanks UU for the preview!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 19-01-2023 10:31
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Time for some trademark Areruya aggression, let's try do something awesome here and get ahead of the big gun climbers 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 19-01-2023 10:38
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Grand Tour Champion
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Needed a race for the final 3RD left so here we are, no expectations other than Kalaba on the opening stage.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 19-01-2023 12:20
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Classics Specialist
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Brought a tripe-upside roster here but I'd be surprised if we score a tangible amount of points here all three riders need an incredible day to make it count on their given stage, and a race like this is not gonna help the random promotion push that we find ourselves in.
Padun/Areruya/Beltran for the win here IMO, but it will depend on how tough the Mountain stage really ends up being.
Thanks for the preview, looking forward to the reports!
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 19-01-2023 13:08
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Team Leader
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Thank you for a great preview and looking forward to more success with your reporting UU!
Hoping for another crazy performance from Mas but, realistically, not expecting too much as he's not a Top 10 Climber or Puncheur. He does suit the profile though so I have to remain hopeful 
Otherwise, let's see if we can get in the break once or twice.
Be interesting to see who takes the win here as the favourite would have to be one of the climbers but Areruya and Beltran would certainly be expected to do alright too.
Good luck everyone!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 19-01-2023 22:40
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Almost missed that one due to all the spam lately... But just in time I guess 
I don't really know what to expect. The field looks extremely stacked, even more than last year - and even then Quintana didn't do well in the GC. On the other hand, as Ulrich mentioned, Moscon won stage 2 and even took over the leader jersey. If he did that again, I'd be over the moon given his season so far, but I'll rather be hoping for some more Masnada magic like he did in Hong Kong. He should be pretty well-suited for the course, being decent on climbs and hills - exactly what I feel would be needed on this kind of race. But well, one would expect Beltran to excel in these races as well, and he did not much so far, so I can't really say that I can *expect* some good results.
Except for stage 1 probably, where we should have the strongest sprinter team - let's see if Stepniak can get another win
Good luck to all, and thanks for preview & reports to Ulrich!
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 19-01-2023 22:42
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go Angel!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 20-01-2023 00:49
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Nothing to say about stage 1 for us, but hopefully a lot of good things to say about stage 2 soon.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 20-01-2023 04:03
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Team Leader
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Well that made me sad  congrats BWT on the win but I’m still sad
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| redordead |
Posted on 20-01-2023 07:09
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
Joined: 18-10-2017
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Breakaway wins again, maybe the stage is bugged.
Congrats to the CT teams who took the podium spots.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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