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Hong Kong Challenge Discussion
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 06:14
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World Champion
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 Hong Kong Challenge
2 Hilly (1 HTF) | 1 ITT
Welcome to the Hong Kong Challenge! The second stage race of the Pro Continental Tour season, but still not one in the high mountains - it's another one for the puncheurs, though an almost entirely different startlist to what we saw in the Tour Down Under. Time trialling will also play a crucial role. In its previous four editions since it made it's debut, it's been won twice by traditional stage racers (König in 2018, Nibali in 2019) and since the step to PCT has been won by a puncheur (Kelderman in 2020, Beltran in 2021) narrowly ahead of a pack of stage racers.
| MO | HI | TT | RS | AC |  Dunbar | 77 | 76 | 79 | 77 | 68 |  Kinoshita | 72 | 83 | 66 | 77 | 77 |  Areruya | 79 | 81 | 65 | 78 | 76 |  Beltran | 79 | 81 | 66 | 72 | 76 |  Reis | 81 | 73 | 76 | 76 | 64 |
In the grand scheme of things you could say this is a "weak" startlist for the PCT, with only a select few of the second tier puncheurs, a trio of second tier climbers, a couple of top TTers and one very interesting hybrid accompanying three of the PCT's biggest puncheurs. Let's start with the latter, the undoubted headline names.
If I have to explain Tomohiro Kinoshita to you, you must be new to following the PCT and I'd be delighted to do so! If you thought I was going to be snarky towards those trying to follow a new interest, shame on you! His PCT rankings history reads 1-11-6-6-8, and always among the top puncheurs. He's a certified PCT legend and on paper this year could be one of his best yet. His history in the Hong Kong Challenge? Well, that's still unwritten - this is his first time here. Trying something new planning-wise clearly at 32 and his 6th PCT season and we love him for it.
However, let's discuss a man who well and truly beat him last season overall (and my apologies for the disrespect of not starting with him): defending champion Eduard Alexander Beltran. They didn't share a lot of races, but Beltran won the individual standings and was over 400 points ahead of Kinoshita. Perhaps the latter is trying to take him more head-on? Last year Beltran won Stages 1 and 3 in a dominant show to undo his TT time loss and win the GC. This year with Kinoshita in attendance that will be tough to do. Also looking to get in his way is young, scrappy and hungry Joseph Areruya (5th here in 2020), who has received a lot of hype going into the season suggesting he can rise to or even surpass Beltran, to whom he shares a lot of similarities. However, that's one thing to say, another thing to do, and we've never seen him do it. The battle between those two will surely be the first of many this year, and add in Kinoshita and you have the first clash between three huge names in the PCT hills scene in 2022.
One thing none of those three can do, though, is put in a great time trial. While Beltran's heroics outweighed his TT woes last year, with Eddie Dunbar in attendance, fresh out of a training camp, that will be harder to repeat. It will be much harder to shake him compared to the TTers last year, and perhaps Dunbar is the biggest favourite here. A great climber on short and long ascents, he has forged himself into one of the division's best in the time trials as well and will be fighting tooth and nail to limit his losses to those big names and then decimate them in the time trial.
One guy who will limit his losses in the time trial well is Rafael Reis, who headlines the small contingent of traditional stage racers in attendance. A great rider on the longer climbs, if he can adjust well to the shorter hills we see here then he is also in with a shout of winning this race with his skill on the time trial bike.
| MO | HI | TT | RS | AC | | MO | HI | TT | RS | AC |  Paulinho | 75 | 80 | 64 | 72 | 75 |  Brown | 75 | 73 | 76 | 73 | 71 |  Guldhammer | 80 | 76 | 70 | 74 | 75 |  Paillot | 70 | 71 | 80 | 74 | 64 |  Boswell | 71 | 80 | 67 | 73 | 76 |  Cosnefroy | 68 | 71 | 78 | 81 | 69 |  Waeytens | 71 | 80 | 65 | 70 | 73 | Fernandes | 75 | 70 | 77 | 77 | 67 |  Eiking | 69 | 80 | 65 | 74 | 76 |  Moscon | 73 | 79 | 66 | 77 | 73 | | Conci | 77 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 68 | Gesbert | 74 | 78 | 64 | 78 | 73 | | Masnada | 77 | 76 | 73 | 75 | 73 |  Edmondson | 69 | 79 | 64 | 72 | 76 | | Kritskiy | 80 | 71 | 76 | 70 | 61 |  Poljanski | 77 | 77 | 67 | 70 | 71 | | Kämna | 77 | 71 | 78 | 73 | 67 |  Brändle | 75 | 70 | 78 | 71 | 67 |
While it's unfair to call some of these guys "outsiders", none of them have a point of difference on the five guys in the section above. There is for sure an argument for the likes of Paulinho, Guldhammer or Conci (who should have the U25 competition in the bag) finishing on the podium at the end of stage three, but is there much of an argument for Paulinho to win ahead of Beltran, Guldhammer to beat Reis or Conci to beat Dunbar?
Those three are surely the most interesting names, though it's worth mentioning Kritskiy - he's no longer at the level to be a top GT rider, but he still has bags of stage racing experience and power in his legs yet, and Masnada and Poljanski leading the "secondary MO/HI hybrid" line which has got some great results here before - especially Masnada with his TT will be interesting, hopefully he isn't shut out by the team in favour of Moscon. Big shoutout to the CT teams bringing some heat here as well, the aforementioned Jura duo but also Boswell, Edmondson and even last year's runner-up Brändle.
| TT | FL | HI | RS | PL | | Paillot | 80 | 70 | 71 | 74 | 80 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | 70 | 60 | 76 | 80 | | Dunbar | 79 | 69 | 76 | 77 | 77 | | Rekita | 79 | 72 | 63 | 73 | 78 | | Beniusis | 79 | 71 | 60 | 73 | 78 | | Cosnefroy | 78 | 76 | 71 | 81 | 78 | | Erdenebat | 78 | 75 | 65 | 78 | 79 | | Van Niekerk | 78 | 76 | 67 | 75 | 77 | | Onodera | 78 | 74 | 69 | 74 | 75 | | Kämna | 78 | 71 | 71 | 73 | 78 | | Thomas | 78 | 73 | 66 | 73 | 79 | | Belevics | 78 | 76 | 64 | 72 | 78 | | Brändle | 78 | 74 | 70 | 71 | 78 | | Christodoulos | 78 | 72 | 68 | 69 | 79 | | Schomber | 74 | 73 | 58 | 76 | 81 |
Finally it's worth mentioning the stage hunters - not including any puncheurs, if you are a contender for 2/3 of the stages and aren't targeting the GC that's not called "stage hunting", it's called being a coward.
Many of these names were mentioned above and are GC contenders - notably Dunbar but also Conci, Kamna and even the likes of Paillot and Cosnefroy if they have great days in the hills are capable there too. Paillot's pal Gonzalez Salas leads the line for those that definitely have no chance of doing well in the GC but he could easily nab the stage win here, as could Red Bull's new Lithuanian hero Beniusis or even Rekita, yet another example of the great CT field here, even if it is from Jura again.
Well, that's enough speculation and build-up, because none of this waffle will mean much in three days when we all know the answers to these questions. I'll leave you in the very capable hands of the wonderful Nemolito for the reports!
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 07:18
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Hoping for a stage win here but I hope to achieve a high GC finish too. Should be an interesting race!
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| MacC |
Posted on 10-10-2022 07:47
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Sprinter
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Thanks Jandal .
Just a shout out for Craddock who was 8th here last year ...Will be going for top 10 again !
Edited by MacC on 10-10-2022 10:36
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 10-10-2022 08:08
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Yeah, we're back to racing!
However, given the Gisborne outcome, I'm not sure if I'm really happy about that...
As it was said in the preview, Masnada did very well here previously, and I'm definitely hoping for a repeat of that. The hope is that he would get support from Moscon, which is kind of a big gamble given that the engine most of the times doesn't get that kind of tactics... We'll see how it goes.
Dunbar definitely is the big favorite here; however, with the known TT variance, he'd better get some gaps on the likes of Kämna and Brändle. Sounds easy given the clear advantage on hills, but the question is whether he can really distance them given that his acceleration isn't top-notch either.
I'd honestly be surprised to see Beltran win again; he'll have to crush the competition on the hills again. Obviously not impossible - maybe he can even cooperate with Areruya to gain even more time - but iirc it was pretty close last year despite almost everything falling into place.
Thanks for the preview to jandal, and thanks in advance to Nemo for the reports (because I'm not sure I'd still stay thank you after the race  )
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-10-2022 09:34
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On paper this should have been a race for Cattaneo and/or Dennis. But instead it's Brown leading.
From reporting this race back in 2020 I remember Cattaneo failing, and the race went to puncheurs instead. Last year shows a similar picture, so the advantage these two would have in hilly/TT races is not as strong as other races, thus their RD are better off elsewhere.
Since I had 3 spare RD in planning and so did Brown, why not. Not expecting a win but hopefully he can get a decent result on his return after eight years.
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| redordead |
Posted on 10-10-2022 10:40
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I felt I had to come back here with Beltran, but I don't have a good feeling about the race this time.
Hopefully I'm wrong
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| quadsas |
Posted on 10-10-2022 10:40
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We bring a damn strong squad here, hopefully no big failures once again
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 11:00
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
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For us obviously the first race with new-look Areruya is very exciting. Will say we're here for the win but as Fabianski said last year Beltran was run very close despite a dream two stage wins against a weaker field, so maybe even such a perfect race couldn't see him, Kinoshita or Areruya win. Excited either way 
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11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 10-10-2022 11:32
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Thank you for an amazing preview, jandal 
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 12:38
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Thank you for the great preview.
We brought a few hitters here, to stage hunt but also get us a respectable gc finish.
Good luck everybody!
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-10-2022 13:27
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Grand Tour Champion
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Marcovdw wrote:
On paper this should have been a race for Cattaneo and/or Dennis. But instead it's Brown leading.
From reporting this race back in 2020 I remember Cattaneo failing, and the race went to puncheurs instead. Last year shows a similar picture, so the advantage these two would have in hilly/TT races is not as strong as other races, thus their RD are better off elsewhere.
Since I had 3 spare RD in planning and so did Brown, why not. Not expecting a win but hopefully he can get a decent result on his return after eight years.
Thanks for this explanation. I was quite curious how so few strong stage race guys ended up here 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 13:46
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I have to say, I expected a bit stronger of a field here. Usually stage races with small race day allocations tend to be pretty stacked since many can fit them in as their leader's last race.
The plan all along was to bring Kamna here as our leader, and I'm glad the startlist agrees with me. This is the type of race we've prioritized for him this year, so I'd like to see him perform well. For that to happen, we need the TT to the decisive factor, but the hills to still be selective enough to thin the field a bit of pure time trialists. We'll see how it turns out.
Hopefully Guldhammer's presence doesn't complicate things too much and make Kamna a domestique. I have two puncheurs, so my original thought was obviously to send either Aranburu or Jensen here with Kamna instead. But Aranburu's TT is horrendous, so it would just be for stage points, and the hills here are a bit more mountainous than I feel comfortable with for Jensen. Guldhammer's race days fit and his TT means he's viable for GC scoring as well. So that was my play. We'll see how it works out and if he and Kamna sabotage each other or not.
Thanks for the preview!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 13:59
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The hope for us is that Uwizeyimana can maybe score a few depth points in the GC, and Ndayisenga perhaps does something in the hilly stages, but that feels unlikely. Best case scenario is probably that we get into breakaways and maybe score a few mountain points. Thanks for the nice preview! Would expect Dunbar to take this, but if the puncheurs go all out, maybe they have a chance.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 14:09
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First race for Dunbar post-training, nervous as anything! Would be very happy with
podium here. Although Dunbar is considered a top favourite, all it takes is a bad day on the TT bike to bring him back to earth - TT training is a risky move after all Hopefully with 2 extra top puncheurs here this time to bother Beltran they wither the peloton down to only a few and Eddie can hopefully hold on as long as he can. We have a decent setup behind him too which we've never had, so hopefully they can get him where he needs to be.
Asides from the big names, Conci and Kamna are interesting names to see on the startlist - will be interesting to see how they do.
Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 10-10-2022 17:20
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Thank you for the preview indeed and, as many have mentioned, quite an interesting field here with the variation of strengths amongst the favourites.
Personally, hopeful that Conci can stick close enough to the pure puncheurs to fight back in the TT for a podium. Alternatively hoping for a miraculous performance in the hills from Cosnefroy to get a strong GC that way instead. Glad we have riders for both occasions and hopefully at least one of them steps up and really gets our season going
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 10-10-2022 17:36
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I have a theory that I messed up Boswell's planning given the relatively weak PCT puncheur field.
I have him at races like this and California where stages are realistic but a top GC probably isn't when I probably should have focused on HC races where the puncheurs can win, like TDU where he could have got a GC top 10 (although that was a bit of a lottery so maybe not).
Thanks for the preview.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-10-2022 19:04
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If Areruya and Beltran can work well together they should be very well set to to fight for the win. Nice preview, though I wouldn't have put Reis in the favourites.
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| redordead |
Posted on 11-10-2022 07:53
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Looks like the season has well and truly begun 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| MacC |
Posted on 11-10-2022 08:17
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Well that was dramatic!
I'm sure Ulrich went from pulling his hair out to jumping for joy with Boswell's antics there
Looks like Craddock won't be able to repeat his top 10 but if he can do a good TT he can certainly move into top 20. Nice to see young gun Liam Curley do a decent job in the break.
Edited by MacC on 11-10-2022 09:40
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 11-10-2022 08:45
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What a wild stage. First of all thanks for a great report Nemo! That was really cool to read. Then congrats to Ulrich, very gutsy performance by Boswell, happy that paid off. Great stuff by Areruya of course, and I'm glad that Masnada rode so well for Jura after Moscon was distanced early.
From our point of view, this stage could not have gone any better. Khederi did the best he could against that competition in the breakaway, but more importantly, this was perhaps the best performance by Uwizeyimana in a Bralirwa shirt yet. He's a top 5-8 time trialist in that front group I reckon, and if he does perform like that and gets treated as a legitimate GC contender on the final stage, that one should suit him fairly well. But I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
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