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PCT Roundtable Analysis 2022 p/b “The Conglomerate”
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 27-09-2022 15:22
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
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Thanks to everyone for all the kind words and interaction already.
Team-wise analysis for the first 12 teams are now posted. The rest will be posted tomorrow and the final prediction on Thursday as per schedule.
Enjoy 
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| ember |
Posted on 27-09-2022 15:52
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
Joined: 27-03-2008
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Thank you for your great work, all of you! This is a great addition to the pre-season wait. |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 27-09-2022 16:25
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Thank you for the review! I wrote off promotion when I went for Skjelmose, so maybe my moves from there were not optimal to achieve that goal. But I'd of course love to luck into it. I will have a terrain leader for every race this year, so I hope to at least be competitive more often than not.
As far as the Aranburu training, I've already kind of said my piece there about the mtn/hill aspect. Knockout is definitely right that this was a last resort in terms of having too much cash on hand. I knocked on a lot of doors in those last few days of transfers after the Girmay loan with hopes to make better use of the money. But most doors were closed by then, and getting a better or younger leader no longer was a realistic option. The Girmay money was unexpected, and thus I couldn't plan for it by making earlier buys. Training was the result. And once it came down to training, Aranburu seemed like the only logical choice. AKA is 30 and well optimized already. Eg was an option, but I quite like is wage/role value already long term. So that's how it came about.
I will note to Croatia's point - Aranburu will be separated from Jensen almost entirely. I think they share 2 classics the whole year. Aranburu will actually have a few more race days with Guldhammer than Jensen I think. And maybe that makes his hill training seem even stupider, but I'm hoping to cover all the eventualities of those hybrid races.
I will say, I'm not sure I agree with the panel this year as far as the balance of our team's skills though. The 7's and 8's for mountains are too high in my opinion accounting for both Guldhammer's decline and the stacked PCT field this year. Yes, we have good depth there, but guys like Aranburu and Kamna won't be racing the pure mountain races much cause they have their own calendars. Conversely, I'm hoping we're better than 3-4/10 in terms of TT scoring. Not that our TTT team is great or we have a Durbridge type, but given the fairly weak TT field this year, I'm hoping Kamna's calendar will suit him quite well and allow him to score GC point more consistently than many of the pure TT guys around him. But maybe I'm off base.
Thank you again for all your work on this! Always a pleasure. Looking forward to the rest of the teams and the rankings.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| knockout |
Posted on 28-09-2022 07:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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baseballlover312 wrote:
I will say, I'm not sure I agree with the panel this year as far as the balance of our team's skills though. The 7's and 8's for mountains are too high in my opinion accounting for both Guldhammer's decline and the stacked PCT field this year. Yes, we have good depth there, but guys like Aranburu and Kamna won't be racing the pure mountain races much cause they have their own calendars. Conversely, I'm hoping we're better than 3-4/10 in terms of TT scoring. Not that our TTT team is great or we have a Durbridge type, but given the fairly weak TT field this year, I'm hoping Kamna's calendar will suit him quite well and allow him to score GC point more consistently than many of the pure TT guys around him. But maybe I'm off base.
The Mountain grade, i give you that. Could have been lowered to a 6 just as well. We all probably went a bit higher because of assumptions that Aranburu and Kämna might still race some of the pure mountains races.
The TT grade, i think a 4 is perfectly fine considering you have almost nothing behind your two 78tt guys and I factored Kämna in heavily in the hybrid grade. I'd like to mention that i gave you the highest hybrid grade of all teams in part due to him.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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Posted on 23-11-2024 02:35
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| redordead |
Posted on 28-09-2022 09:50
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4881
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Regarding my team:
AbhishekLFC wrote:
Pogacar is almost at the end of his development and should already be a regular Top 10 finisher in stage races
I think the other 31 riders with 79+ MO disagree 
Also those terrain scores are pretty generous compared to the rest 
Croatia14 wrote:
I am a little worried. Beltran can make or break a season. His history so far is: Make - break - make - ???. With Areruya being trained he now has competition that fills his niche (though with Kwiatek a weaker one is gone), which could massively impact his “winning”. The calendar for him got nerfed once again, too...
However, Cedevita only has one big name as a scorer, and if the depth doesn’t work and Beltran fails they could even be in trouble.
Finally! Someone who doesn't look at my team through rose-tinted glasses 
I wouldn't say I'm 'very good' at PCT planning, but hopefully good enough to have a successful year with this one and a half terrain focused team
knockout wrote:
Kinda looks like the trust is on Katrasnik to deliver which is interesting but might not be good enough.
I don't trust him at all!!
I just add Balkan riders to the team when I can, I don't think think too much how they fit the team
Also after 2 years of watching Saber being one of the worst sprinters in PCT, I wasn't too fussed over skipping sprints this time.
jandal wrote:
we probably don’t need to do the rest of the squad overview. What? You want to know their plans for the other terrains? Ksshshsh kshsh rrr sorry I’m going through a tunnel kshshs rr ok byeeeeeee
Less said the better, right?
Thanks for the extensive breakdown. Looking forward to reading the rest
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 28-09-2022 13:24
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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knockout wrote:
baseballlover312 wrote:
I will say, I'm not sure I agree with the panel this year as far as the balance of our team's skills though. The 7's and 8's for mountains are too high in my opinion accounting for both Guldhammer's decline and the stacked PCT field this year. Yes, we have good depth there, but guys like Aranburu and Kamna won't be racing the pure mountain races much cause they have their own calendars. Conversely, I'm hoping we're better than 3-4/10 in terms of TT scoring. Not that our TTT team is great or we have a Durbridge type, but given the fairly weak TT field this year, I'm hoping Kamna's calendar will suit him quite well and allow him to score GC point more consistently than many of the pure TT guys around him. But maybe I'm off base.
The Mountain grade, i give you that. Could have been lowered to a 6 just as well. We all probably went a bit higher because of assumptions that Aranburu and Kämna might still race some of the pure mountains races.
The TT grade, i think a 4 is perfectly fine considering you have almost nothing behind your two 78tt guys and I factored Kämna in heavily in the hybrid grade. I'd like to mention that i gave you the highest hybrid grade of all teams in part due to him.
That's fair! Thanks for the explanation.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 28-09-2022 13:35
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Team Manager
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Thank you for the thoughts on my team, I agree with most of it. My leaders should give me a high floor and promotion ambitions. I'm actually not that worried about Silvestre. Yes, sprints are weird, but sprinters with his makeup have actually been fairly consistent over the past two or three years in PCT (see also Manninen and Kennaugh), and while his first half of the season was exceptional, he did leave quite a few points on the table in the second half, so he wasn't fully at his limit either.
That said, I 100% agree that the lack of depth doesn't give me a super high ceiling, and I share knockout's worries about Stallaert's weaker support system. I hope everything goes as well as y'all seem to think.
Also, really cool to get a better impression and some analysis on the other teams in the division. That's just a different kind of insight than just scrolling through the Excel file on your own.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 28-09-2022 15:33
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11676
Joined: 27-07-2015
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Analysis for all teams are posted now.
The consolidated statistical outcome and expert predictions will come tomorrow as per schedule.
Enjoy
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 28-09-2022 15:48
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
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Appreciate the analysis and kind words on my team philosophy from Jandal especially.
Admittedly, transfers didn’t quite go as I had planned as I did want to sign a big Puncheur leader but there were few available for reasonable fees without losing more of my riders so had to settle for what we had with Paez and direct our focus away from the hills as much as possible for C1 selection.
Interesting comment on the TTT side where I don’t necessarily disagree. The worst of the TTT team is 73 rated where 1 or 2 additions may have increased that towards 75 but I like to keep the domestique talents rolling through as well 
I’m intrigued to see the rankings outcome as well as the expert predictions as I agree that this PCT season is very open across the board.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 28-09-2022 15:52
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
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Thank yall for doing this after a yearly fakeout.
Croatia is clearly a man of great taste, but being reigning defending undisputed MG champ means you don't get any discounts from me 
And I genuinely do not understand the confusion behind Powless trade. It was very simple - Errazkin scored 80 points less than Powless in PT last year (both wereU25, but still) and Fernandes scored 400 in PCT (of course, probably quite an overperformance). I simply believe I get more points by doing that trade. And Beniusis was sadly in a no compromise zone. Being the only Lithuanian rider capable of scoring decent points, had to do it especially considering I would probably never ever get him back from Tinkoff had he gone there. Felt like I had to play a bit more of RP game this year with Halvorsen and Beniusis simply because I only had 800k in pure cash to play with so went into transfers with the goal of minimum damage to points total.
And I do agree with jandal, I would need to get the LPH level of the very maximum output from my riders to get anywhere near the top, unless Halvorsen and disaster rider Reis goes ballistic.
Edited by quadsas on 28-09-2022 16:00
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 28-09-2022 16:18
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
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Thanks for the effort as always. Hope janal enjoyed those bananas I gave him in exchange for a favorable review. Cattaneo and Dennis can almost perfectly be split between the MO-TT and HL-TT races. Ideally they'd bit a bit younger but rebuildind every year is kind of my thing now.
Also, I will not allow any Zepunkte slander, that guy has tried his best all those years 
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 28-09-2022 17:57
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World Champion
Posts: 12986
Joined: 20-05-2009
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Great job as always. I think my teams analysis is very accurate. Not much change, but I do think I've started to make moves to transition away from a Kinoshita led team, and Min is probably the best Asian rider to do that atm, while being able to still afford Kinoshita. It was pretty much a no brainer to acquire him, although yeah, U25 points would have been nice for him.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 29-09-2022 12:31
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Thanks to those of you who have read and responded so far  Looking forward to more discussion and the reactions to the "expert" predictions, will try and get involved and respond to some comments when I can Love to see any comments, enjoy getting the discussion going and hype for the season start
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 29-09-2022 13:39
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
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As always, really appreciate what you guys do. Really like to read this top to bottom. Let's talk then!
Obviously, training Novak vs. training Oomen would be a big talking point. I thought it felt better to train Novak as a balanced climber than to make Oomen more MO heavy. I really don't like the 85MO 70HI riders.
It was time for Vanbilsen to go, but I don't feel Gamper will be that much worse with his RES/STA (I really don't understand the 2 I got from Croatia for cobbles).
Overall I think my team got a bit stronger with training and progress, but yeah, it will depend on which Bonifazio we get to find out if I can go for promotion or not.
Finaly:
knockout wrote:
knockout: I see a solid chance that Zico Waeytens will be the team’s top scorer this season. When I say that, I want to summon Ollfardh to make an expert prediction whether a team with Zico Waeytens as top scorer has any chance to survive.
You goin' down!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 29-09-2022 14:19
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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The statistical outcome has been posted now the so-called "expert" predictions will come soon as a final step too. Thanks for all the interaction so far, that always motivates us to keep pushing
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 29-09-2022 15:54
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
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I would be very disappointed if we would end up somewhere else than 6th now...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 29-09-2022 16:28
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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Final predictions are here Let us know what you think!
fjhoekie wrote:
I would be very disappointed if we would end up somewhere else than 6th now...
well deservedly so
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 29-09-2022 17:19
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2905
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Thanks for another Thread of the Year contender, it's been a joy to read it. I think that I have a lot of planning magic that needs to work, as someone that has not really had to balance sprinters like this in the past besides having Kump it's going to be interesting to see if my race selection and the PCM gods allows me to take the 16th placement that seems to be consistent across most PCT predictions so far!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 29-09-2022 18:20
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Oh well, that's a lot of pressure. How am I gonna screw this one up?... 
Statistical analysis and experts both putting us in the top 3. Definitely didn't expect that at the close of transfers to say the least. My approach was never to go for a full promotion push, so it's surpriign to see the possibility. Obviously I hope everyone's right! Personally I'd put us somewhere in the 5-10 spots though given my history of poor planning and underperformance. I think we have better scoring depth and leader coverage than we did last year, but with Guldhammer, Trentin, and AKA all scoring less this time around, I'm not sure I see a third place team. We'll see!
Thank you all again for putting together such an amazing preview here! Glad you decided to keep it going this year.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 29-09-2022 19:47
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Domestique
Posts: 504
Joined: 17-08-2020
PCM$: 400.00
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Thanks for the priviews
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