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Ronde van Nederland Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-12-2021 10:54
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Team Manager
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 Ronde van Nederland
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Preview
The Ronde van Nederland is a relatively new race on the calendar, now going into its fourth edition. It’s the last PT stage race before the Giro d’Italia, and as such, it’s a good test of form for sprinters and puncheurs that have that on their season schedule, and the last opportunity for some of the others to show themselves for a few weeks.
The course is short but intense. We open with two nominally flat stages, but stage one is especially tricky with a pretty steep final kilometer - we’ve seen puncheurs in the Top 5-10 on that one before. The second stage should be a more straightforward sprint, even with the small hill inside the final 10 kilometers.
The final stage is more suitable for puncheurs, but considering the somewhat easy approach to the finish, punchy sprinters are strong contenders here as well - in 2018 and 2020, when the exact profile was featured as well,  Arnaud Demare (who ended up winning the whole thing) and then-Evonik rider  Michael Van Stayen came out on top, respectively. However, last year,  John Degenkolb was just barely able to hang on and win the GC after two strong results in the sprints. So, there are a few possible outcomes in play.
| FL | SP | AC | HI | RS |  Gaviria | 76 | 83 | 84 | 72 | 76 |  Coquard | 73 | 84 | 83 | 67 | 74 | | Degenkolb | 76 | 84 | 81 | 69 | 71 |  Ahlstrand | 74 | 83 | 82 | 67 | 73 | | Demare | 73 | 82 | 81 | 80 | 72 |  Grosu | 73 | 83 | 80 | 73 | 70 |  Van der Lijke | 73 | 82 | 79 | 76 | 71 | | Eislers | 79 | 82 | 78 | 67 | 78 |
Most of the cream of the crop of PT sprinting is here. Gaviria, Coquard, defending champion Degenkolb and Ahlstrand are probably the best pure sprinters, but the others on this list aren’t far behind.
Demare and Van der Lijke obviously stand out for their puncheur abilities and have to be considered for stage three, as does to a slightly lesser extent Grosu. Eislers meanwhile has arguably the biggest motor of any sprint contender, which could help him on all three stages.
| FL | SP | AC | HI | RS |  Swift | 72 | 82 | 79 | 66 | 67 |  Samolenkov | 74 | 81 | 79 | 64 | 71 |  Vesely | 73 | 81 | 80 | 68 | 68 |  Enger | 73 | 81 | 78 | 69 | 73 |  Cullaigh | 73 | 80 | 81 | 66 | 70 |  Kemboi | 78 | 80 | 80 | 63 | 77 |  Houle | 78 | 79 | 78 | 75 | 71 |  Hsu | 75 | 80 | 79 | 67 | 70 |  Petit | 76 | 80 | 78 | 65 | 72 | | Holloway | 76 | 78 | 79 | 67 | 74 |  Bertilsson | 73 | 79 | 77 | 69 | 71 |
As is often the case, lines between tiers are blurry and to some extent arbitrary. Swift might have a case to be considered a top tier sprinter, but his combination of flat, hill and resistance is just a bit worse than those with similar sprint stats in tier one.
In addition, as per usual, the sprinting field is very deep. Samolenkov, Vesely, Enger, Cullaigh and Kemboi can all be considered as solid stage win contenders if things break just right for them.
Then there is a slight drop to the second half of this tier. Houle stands out due to his strong hill stat, if he’s able to collect a few bonus seconds in the first two days, he’s certainly in play for a top GC result. But it would be a surprise to actually see him win one of those sprints, and the same is arguably true for Hsu, Petit, Holloway and Bertilsson. Then again, at this point, it might just be considered a surprise if there are no surprises, so we’ll see what happens.
| FL | HI | SP | AC | RS |  De Bie | 73 | 84 | 72 | 75 | 76 | | Lutsenko | 69 | 83 | 72 | 81 | 73 | | Sagan | 72 | 83 | 73 | 76 | 74 | | Hagen | 75 | 83 | 71 | 76 | 71 | | Mohoric | 72 | 83 | 67 | 77 | 72 | | Demare | 73 | 80 | 82 | 81 | 72 | | Koretzky | 73 | 81 | 71 | 79 | 70 | | Vakoc | 71 | 81 | 71 | 74 | 71 | | McCarthy | 70 | 81 | 65 | 74 | 75 | | Waeytens | 70 | 80 | 66 | 73 | 70 | | Ulissi | 75 | 79 | 73 | 74 | 70 | | Turgis | 73 | 79 | 70 | 77 | 78 | | Gastauer | 67 | 80 | 65 | 73 | 67 | | Trakhov | 68 | 79 | 69 | 75 | 74 | | Gerts | 77 | 78 | 72 | 70 | 80 |
We also have many top puncheurs in the peloton here, specifically targeting stage three. In terms of pure puncheur skills, there’s a pretty clear Top 5 that includes De Bie, Lutsenko, Sagan, Hagen and Mohoric. All of them are pretty quick as well and can be considered threats for stage 1, even if Lutsenko stands out with his elite acceleration and Mohoric lags behind in pure sprint speed.
Speaking of pure sprint speed, Demare is the obvious outlier, being listed both here and in the sprinters list, which probably makes him the top favorite overall.
More quick puncheurs include Koretzky, Vakoc, Ulissi, Turgis and Gerts, who also is sort of the Eislers of the puncheurs with his elite flat-resistance combination thanks to his classics-oriented build.
On the other side of the spectrum, the likes of McCarthy, Waeytens, Gastauer and Trakhov will hope for as selective a final stage as possible, or maybe have to rely on an attack for a top result on day three.
As mentioned earlier, the race is wide open, with many possible outcomes both for individual stages as well as the GC. To conclude, here’s a full overview of all riders involved:
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| SotD |
Posted on 21-12-2021 11:30
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Oh man what a startlist. Impressive stuff!
That said, where the F is S. Yates? Possibly one of the best suited races for him in all the calender I'd say.
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| roturn |
Posted on 21-12-2021 12:24
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Had to come here with De Bie as 3 rd were worth it...but not sure the small bumps are enough to really get rid of sprinters and their bonus seconds...let`s see.
No Groenewegen here to avoid a tactical desaster but well well. Not sure about it at all. |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 21-12-2021 12:24
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Hagen and Vesely, the two disappointments of the season so far, together in a race where we cannot score points. Watch them suddenly win everything.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 04:45
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| SotD |
Posted on 21-12-2021 12:33
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roturn wrote:
Had to come here with De Bie as 3 rd were worth it...but not sure the small bumps are enough to really get rid of sprinters and their bonus seconds...let`s see.
No Groenewegen here to avoid a tactical desaster but well well. Not sure about it at all.
I went for the exact opposite 
Coquard because I hope the hills are not very hard, AND Koretzky because - Well, screw it! 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-12-2021 14:01
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Would be amazing if Houle can repeat his wildcard performance last year of 4th on GC. Hope we're visible in breakaways and he does a decent job in the sprints and GC is all I can really ask for though 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| knockout |
Posted on 21-12-2021 14:02
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Love the profile of the race as one for the tougher sprinters mostly. This is one of the moments where i miss having Van Stayen anymore for the old Demare vs Van Stayen duels. Ideally Eislers can step in and replace him.
Sick puncheur startlist here. Looks stronger than some proper hilly races |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 21-12-2021 14:07
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Decided to not send our strongest team on paper here, and allocate them to other races instead. With Pedersen winning a stage in Qatar and Wisniowski getting on the podium together with the rest of the team in Copenhagen-Malmo, I don't regret it. So hopefully we can try to be a bit aggressive here. We did very well in the first edition of this race, but we were woeful last year. Serrano could do something on the last stage, and I hope some of our roleurs can do something. Let's see how it goes!
Like SotD, suprised to not see Yates here, but a really strong startlist nevertheless. Should be a fun race to watch, and hopefully we can play an active role.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-12-2021 14:53
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So, it turns out I made a bit of a blunder: I thought I had prepared everything for the reports before I travelled for the holidays, but I forgot to include the full results. I could offer you the reports "in time", so tomorrow through friday, with all the screenshots and everything except for the full results list (the Top ~15 of every stage and the final GC are gonna be reported in text form), and then I'd add the full results in about a week or so when my flatmate returns and can access my computer.
Alternatively, I'll wait until then to have everything at once. I suppose there's no real time pressure, the only downside would be that one of the reports would then coincide with the RVV, and some riders would ride twice in one day. Let me know what you prefer.
This does not affect Colombia btw, as those reports are indeed fully prepared.
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| SotD |
Posted on 21-12-2021 15:01
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cunego59 wrote:
So, it turns out I made a bit of a blunder: I thought I had prepared everything for the reports before I travelled for the holidays, but I forgot to include the full results. I could offer you the reports "in time", so tomorrow through friday, with all the screenshots and everything except for the full results list (the Top ~15 of every stage and the final GC are gonna be reported in text form), and then I'd add the full results in about a week or so when my flatmate returns and can access my computer.
Alternatively, I'll wait until then to have everything at once. I suppose there's no real time pressure, the only downside would be that one of the reports would then coincide with the RVV, and some riders would ride twice in one day. Let me know what you prefer.
This does not affect Colombia btw, as those reports are indeed fully prepared.
I'm absolutely fine with a short writeup of the results - but obviously gaps can play a vital role in the results, but assuming those are to some degree handled in the report I'm absolutely fine with getting the reports now and waiting for the ultimate results.
I'm also fine with waiting though, if the above is very time consuming
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| tastasol |
Posted on 21-12-2021 15:04
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First of all, thanks to you and the other reports for all the effort, even during a time when many travel for holidays. For my sake it would certainly be fine with the reports now and full results in a week or so, but no need to overload yourself with work when on holiday
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-12-2021 15:25
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SotD wrote:
I'm absolutely fine with a short writeup of the results - but obviously gaps can play a vital role in the results, but assuming those are to some degree handled in the report I'm absolutely fine with getting the reports now and waiting for the ultimate results.
I'm also fine with waiting though, if the above is very time consuming
To clarify what it would look like with a hypothetical example (no spoilers as it's of course not exactly like this): There might be a Top 15-20 with some gaps which are all reported in text form, but then there's a group of around 25 riders maybe a minute behind the stage winner and a minute ahead of the big peloton, and I can't give you every name that's in there, so you might not know exactly what your depth scoring looks like, or if your leader who has missed the cut is in there (though I would certainly mention if a really big name has fallen even further behind).
All bonus seconds are always included (this goes for any potential bunch sprints that may or may not be happening as well of course), but if there are riders on equal time in the backend of the Top 20 or Top 30, you won't know who's in what place exactly until I post the full results.
This is no additional work as those write-ups are already in the reports anyway.
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| SotD |
Posted on 21-12-2021 15:58
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I am fine with both scenarios :-)
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| knockout |
Posted on 21-12-2021 16:07
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I'm slightly leaning towards delaying it a week since there will be little PT related racing for the rest of the month if we continue to stick closely to the rest of the schedule (Eritrea and HC-C2 classics basically). Bonus points if the Vlaanderen report would be ready to be posted earlier instead (not meant to pressure anyone there)
Generally i dont think we have to follow the calendar as closely as we do this year.
Spoiler I think there are actually cases where I'd prefer going against it more e.g. when the calendar is built to create clashes for certain divisions (good thing!), one could split the reports up so that each division has some races going on at most times). Example: Praha and Colombia happening at the same time after a week of no PT related races
But I'm fine with it either way. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 22-12-2021 09:24
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I hope this race works as well in this PCM, especially the final stage which has provided a nice balance between puncheurs and punchy sprinters previously.
It can be a good race for Van der Lijke, but any good race for him can also be an invisible race for him, so we will see.
Since the discussion thread is up, I'd be inclined towards earlier reports, without full results. Knockout makes a good point though about spreading PT reports about.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 22-12-2021 10:24
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Last time Gerts and Grosu has a shared leadership it did not end well for us. Hopefully this time it will be better.
I don't have a preference between earlier reports or full reports. Either way is fine by me.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 22-12-2021 21:52
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knockout wrote:
Bonus points if the Vlaanderen report would be ready to be posted earlier instead (not meant to pressure anyone there)
The tricky thing is that I have done the Vlaanderen report, too, which has the same issue That one should, as it happens, arrive pretty much on time, but can't be moved forward.
I think SN's argument that since the preview is up already, might as well do the reports now, makes sense, and as everyone seems to be fine either way, I posted S1 now. Again, sorry for the slight inconvenience, but we'll get through it 
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| SotD |
Posted on 22-12-2021 22:15
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Looking at the finish (I think it was difficult to read how difficult it was from the pictures) I can’t complain with 7th here. Vila was a monster on the course, just like he was in Praha, and Farantakis and Koretzky played the leadout perfectly. I suspect both of them are fairly high in the Stage result too, which could be important for minor points if Stage 3 isn’t too difficult.
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| knockout |
Posted on 22-12-2021 22:40
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Great start to the race. Eislers proves to be a top sprinter and finished very strong on such a tough finish. Lots of bonus seconds already including the one in the intermediate sprint so he looks set to finish nicely in the gc if he avoids any time losses which should be possible with his res and climbing stats. Fingers crossed.
Good report and without any important time gaps near the front, the lack of full results is nearly invisible |
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| Roman |
Posted on 22-12-2021 23:24
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Oh, what a start! 
After 3 years of a disappointment with me sending Sagan here again only because he did not really have a better use of the last 3 available days he had - an unexpected win in a sprint. Now if only Sagan can build on this and somehow get home a great result after stage 3, that would be such a superb result from here that we really need after the difficult start of our journey without the legendary Samuel.
Thanks a lot for the report, cunego!
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