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Japan Cup Discussion
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 01-07-2021 16:46
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Tour de France Champion
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Since 2008, the MG peloton has taken a late season trip to Japan to ride a hilly circuit. This year is no different. As a PTHC race, we have a combination of the PT and PCT's best puncheurs ready to fight for the win.
As usual, the race consists of a series of trips around a couple of short, steep pitches. Like last year, the race is now over 230 km, much longer than it was previously. This year sees the climbs separated by some flat sections as well. The finish consists of a last trip over the final hill, followed by a very short, steep downhill in the final km, and then a couple of hundred meters back uphill at the very last. So while sprint ability could come into play there, most riders will be wanting to make the difference on the uphill, since it will likely be difficult to make a pass in the final meters.
| Name | Hill | Mtn | Sta | Res | Spr | Acc |  Ponzi | 83 | 72 | 76 | 71 | 75 | 79 |  Lutsenko | 83 | 73 | 76 | 73 | 72 | 81 |  Bobridge | 83 | 69 | 74 | 74 | 69 | 80 |  Kinoshita | 83 | 72 | 80 | 77 | 68 | 77 |  Skujins | 83 | 70 | 80 | 77 | 68 | 76 | | Lopez | 82 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 66 | 78 |  Claeys | 82 | 66 | 72 | 66 | 66 | 71 |  Di Maggio | 82 | 65 | 73 | 68 | 65 | 75 |  McCarthy | 81 | 67 | 80 | 75 | 65 | 74 |  Izagirre | 81 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 60 | 64 |  Schreurs | 81 | 69 | 76 | 72 | 71 | 74 |  Jensen | 80 | 70 | 77 | 73 | 66 | 76 |  Borges | 80 | 70 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 81 | | Betancourt | 80 | 73 | 72 | 71 | 67 | 74 |  Yates | 79 | 70 | 77 | 70 | 77 | 80 |
We have 3 former winners this year, the first of which is hometown favorite Tomohiro Kinoshita. We can't say this race was made for him, since it's been around since before he turned pro. But he's certainly made for this race. He's been in the top 5 of each of the last four editions, including 3 podiums, and his 2018 victory. He likes the hills, he loves long races, and he'll have an entire country behind him, as always.
Ponzi is an all time great, and he's still the best rider in the field here. He can save some energy on the flat sections compared to his rivals, and he can match anyone uphill. He gets a bonus because he has the best sprint out of the favorites, though again, it will be difficult for anyone to pass on a steep decline.
A guy who is yet to have much success here is Lutsenko, but he is primed for some this year. He has the best burst of speed of anyone, and he features a strong team to back him, including Gidich and Azman.
Bobridge showed in Slovenia earlier this year that he is unbeatable on the hills when he is on top form. That being said, the competition is stiffer here, and he won't have a TT to fall back on. It's certainly all to play for though.
We get another chance to see the top duo in cycling here, as both Skujins and Lopez will line up for Evonik here as race favorites. On paper, the short hills and long race length should make the Latvian their favored man on a day like this, but Lopez loves to attack and could be a really dynamic threat for them here.
Two guys who would love to do well tomorrow are Claeys and Di Maggio. Both are riders who are strong on short climbs but often lack the fundamentals to translate that skill into race victories. Di Maggio is another former winner here though, way back in 2014, so he's clearly comfortable racing in this region, late in the year. He'll be looking for some good form again.
Jay McCarthy is the third and final former winner here, after winning from a small group in 2015. He's another guy who thrives after 200+ km's, though he's a small tick behind the top guys in pure ability.
It will be interesting to see how Izagirre goes. He can keep a high pace in races like this, but he severely lacks explosiveness, which will likely be vital here. It all depends on how the race goes, and what his team decide. If acceleration is necessary, they may decide to go for Betancourt, who is a top puncheur in his own right.
Not much to say about Schreurs. He's a protypical puncheur leader with a very weak team backing him. He'll be hoping for some good daily form.
Jensen has been up and down in skill a lot this year, and he's another standard puncheur leader.
Borges is very similar except his acceleration is an asset that gives him a bit of a boost.
The standard scouting report on Yates has always said that he's a puncheur who would rather leave it to a flat sprint. But as he showed in his San Sebastian victory, he has no problems going earlier when he thinks he has the legs.
| Name | Hill | Mtn | Sta | Res | Spr | Acc |  Guldhammer | 77 | 81 | 74 | 75 | 70 | 76 |  Penasa | 74 | 80 | 75 | 72 | 57 | 76 | | Reichenbach | 79 | 73 | 76 | 69 | 63 | 69 | | Gautier | 79 | 67 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 76 |  Benoot | 78 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 69 | 71 | | Gidich | 78 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 62 | 74 |  Teuns | 78 | 75 | 73 | 73 | 66 | 72 | | Azman | 77 | 76 | 69 | 72 | 65 | 75 | | Kratochvila | 77 | 76 | 70 | 68 | 53 | 64 |  Meurisse | 77 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 71 | 78 |
We have an interesting list of outsiders here. Two guys are usually top stage racers, but have joined in the hilly classics game. Guldhammer is a real wildcard. He loves longer climbs, but doesn't mind short, steep ones either, and his sprint and acceleration are both well above average compared to a normal stage racer. Penasa is a bit more of a stereotypical climber, though he'll hope to do something similar, complementing pure puncheur Gautier.
The rest of these guys are mostly hybrids that would like slightly longer climbs, but could definitely go well here. Some of them are teammates who have already been mentioned. Reichenbach, for instance, is the super lieutenant for Ponzi.
Benoot, Teuns, and Meurisse will be looking to surprise though, since they are team leaders fighting the odds for a top place.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 25-11-2024 13:57
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 01-07-2021 17:04
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Forgot that we are racing here. Definitely not the best suited race for Bobridge, who's not the guy I'm counting on, when we go for 200+ kilometers. The profile itself ain't bad for his skillset, but I really don't expect him to fight for the win or Top-5 here. That said, I would obviously welcome any result inside the Top-5 
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 01-07-2021 17:09
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Classics Specialist
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Expecting a very quiet race from us, almost to the point where I beg for it to ensure that renewals become easier on a relegated budget.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 01-07-2021 17:10
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Small Tour Specialist
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This might be Krizalids last hurrah, I expect at least top 5 from him
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| knockout |
Posted on 01-07-2021 20:09
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Grand Tour Champion
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Huge expectations for me so i'm ready to get disappointed. Originally had only Skujins here with double leadership going to another race (think it was San Sebastian) but changed it when i saw that quite a few of the top puncheurs would miss this race due to bands selection.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 01-07-2021 20:37
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Can't wait for the inevitable mention of Claeys getting dropped
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 01-07-2021 21:56
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Grand Tour Champion
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Yeah, probably a race Yates can't wait for a reduced bunch sprint. Just too many hills, so will be interesting to see if he does try a long-distance move.
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| redordead |
Posted on 02-07-2021 06:23
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Was initially looking forward to seeing how MAL would do here.
But I guess he'll be busy slaving for Skujins 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| knockout |
Posted on 02-07-2021 12:45
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Grand Tour Champion
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redordead wrote:
Was initially looking forward to seeing how MAL would do here.
But I guess he'll be busy slaving for Skujins
I'm sorry, hopefully they both will do well for once 
Chances are that this is the last season where MAL will have to slave for someone else at times 
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| redordead |
Posted on 02-07-2021 13:07
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knockout wrote:
I'm sorry, hopefully they both will do well for once
Chances are that this is the last season where MAL will have to slave for someone else at times
Then I guess we'll just come to PTHC to make up the numbers 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 03-07-2021 07:57
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That was a valiant ride from Borges, but ultimately luck doesn't seem to be on our side this month. Dull race, but with an exciting finale. Thanks for the lively report bbl!
Great win by Lutsenko there!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 03-07-2021 08:09
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Grand Tour Champion
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Marcovdw wrote:
Can't wait for the inevitable mention of Claeys getting dropped
Sometimes races are so predictable.
Thanks for the report baseballlover312, congratulations Bikex!
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| redordead |
Posted on 03-07-2021 09:07
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Skujins ruins another race for MAL 
I was hoping for a Kinoshita win on home soil, but Lutsenko is having one of those seasons
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 03-07-2021 09:51
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Classics Specialist
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Thanks for a great report, did not expect Dyrnes to come 4th here 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-07-2021 12:10
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Haha that's amazing, what a crazy race for Meurisse not making a single actual selection in the report but coming back in each regroup and 6th in the sprint, brilliant stuff and a really amazing unexpected result for us. Love it! 
Congrats Bikex and commiserations valv, would dearly love a Kinoshita win here but wasn't to be. And thanks bbl for the report, really really enjoyed the detail and the writing
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-07-2021 13:25
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Grand Tour Champion
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Congrats Croatia, guess the title is yours
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| ryant |
Posted on 03-07-2021 13:26
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Probably the only time this season the Bellis McCarthy combo worked and it worked very well in the end. This field is obviously weaker than other races this season so the opportunity was there and I'm glad we took it.
Great report as well bbl!
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 03-07-2021 15:52
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Wasnt to be, but a great result nonetheless. Thanks for the sympathy Jandal, and for the exciting reports baseball!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 03-07-2021 20:11
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Pretty damn good result for us, that's over 20pprd so we do be happy. Just wish Siskevicius performed in PCT races rather than PT ones in his last season in prime, but oh well.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 04-07-2021 09:36
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Yeah, no surprise to see Bobridge struggle on this route. My hoping for something better was hopeless
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