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Balkans International Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 04-06-2021 04:57
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Directeur Sportif
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PCM$: 300.00
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 Balkans International
Welcome to the 2020 PTHC Balkans International. The third year for this race, all at the same level. The 2020 parcours repeats the 2019 adventure so here is what last year’s brilliant introduction had to say about the course:
“The race covers 6 countries across 8 days with 6 hilly stages and 2 for the sprinters (stage 2 and 7). With the hilly stages featuring a lot of tough climbs but nothing decisive we could see a final showdown on the climb to Ligkiades on stage 8.
But starting at the beginning - the race opens with a 187km of up and down climbing going from Ljubljana to Zagreb. After that we have a flat stage to Prijedor in Bosnia, the third country covered in the first two stages. After two days touring Bosnia, stage 5 sees a return to Croatia with a stage finish in the historic seaside resort of Dubrovnik. From there race heads south through Montenegro and Albania before the grand finale in Greece on the aforementioned climb, which concludes the brutal 225km final stage”.
Last year Stage 1 proved surprisingly decisive as Lillian Calmejane, at the time riding for Team Europcar, took 3rd from a breakaway and then made his lead stand up for 7 more stages to win the GC. It wasn’t enough for Europcar to survive relegation so they aren’t back, but Calmejane is. This time he rides for PT favorites Isostar – Specialized. They would love a repeat but, in all likelihood, they will ride for  Mohoric, which might be a misjudgment since he could only finish 10th last year.
The race’s other winner,  Bakelants, is back and does feature on the favorites list along with last year’s 2nd place,  Hagen. The full list of the top favorites is:
| FL | MT | HI | AC | RS |  De Bie | 73 | 71 | 84 | 75 | 76 | | Hagen | 76 | 69 | 84 | 78 | 73 |  Sagan | 72 | 74 | 83 | 76 | 74 |  Kinoshita | 73 | 72 | 83 | 77 | 77 | | Mohoric | 72 | 71 | 83 | 77 | 72 | | Bakelants | 70 | 73 | 82 | 75 | 75 |  Van Garderen | 73 | 72 | 82 | 79 | 75 |  Lopez | 70 | 79 | 82 | 78 | 74 |  Claeys | 72 | 66 | 82 | 71 | 66 |  Koretzky | 73 | 71 | 81 | 79 | 70 |  Kwiatkowski | 72 | 78 | 81 | 75 | 76 | | Gastauer | 68 | 70 | 81 | 75 | 69 |  Beltran | 69 | 79 | 81 | 76 | 72 |  Vakoc | 71 | 71 | 80 | 74 | 71 |  Vogt | 73 | 62 | 80 | 63 | 71 |  Ulissi | 76 | 66 | 80 | 75 | 71 |  Paulinho | 67 | 75 | 80 | 75 | 72 |  Prevar | 72 | 71 | 80 | 73 | 70 |  Waeytens | 70 | 71 | 80 | 73 | 70 |
The top 7 (through Van Garderen) are all similar riders and all except De Bie have placed in the top 10 here in one of the prior editions. The Belgian’s best finish is 17th and with his team fighting relegation he has added pressure this year, hopefully his offseason work will pay off in this race.
Sitting 8th on the preview is Lopez, one of 3 favorites, along with Beltran and Kwiatkowski, who will be hoping their ability on the long climbs will make a difference. Beltran’s 5th last year is a good omen.
The remaining riders on the list are probably not contenders for the overall, although last year Waeytens converted a win in that stage 1 break into 3rd overall on the GC. We will see if the peloton gives him the same license this year.
In addition to the climbers listed above the race also attracts a number of other mountain specialists:
| FL | MT | HI | AC | RS | | Padun | 67 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 74 |  Oomen | 71 | 80 | 75 | 69 | 77 |  Formolo | 72 | 79 | 79 | 71 | 76 |  Yates | 71 | 79 | 76 | 76 | 80 |  Arndt | 71 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 76 | | Velits | 68 | 79 | 72 | 62 | 68 | | Giogieri | 65 | 78 | 73 | 67 | 74 | | Sosnitskiy | 70 | 78 | 72 | 73 | 77 |  Nazaret | 66 | 78 | 69 | 69 | 75 | | Ablenado | 67 | 78 | 67 | 65 | 77 |
Arndt, Formolo, Yates, Oomen and Padun all seem to have the all-round skills to threaten the pure puncheurs.
There are two stages where neither the puncheurs or the climbers will be favored, those are the stages for the sprinters, who include:
| FL | SP | AC | RS | | | Moser | 72 | 80 | 79 | 69 | | Bonifazio | 79 | 80 | 80 | 75 | | Van der Sande | 75 | 79 | 79 | 73 | | Kalaba | 74 | 79 | 79 | 72 | | Holloway | 77 | 79 | 81 | 76 | | Suryadi | 71 | 79 | 76 | 68 | | Aregger | 73 | 78 | 77 | 71 | | Bouglas | 72 | 78 | 78 | 67 | | Contreras | 72 | 78 | 80 | 75 | | Liepins | 73 | 78 | 79 | 68 | | Kuboki | 73 | 77 | 77 | 74 | | Ackermann | 72 | 77 | 80 | 71 |  Tivani | 70 | 77 | 78 | 78 | | Lovassy | 68 | 77 | 77 | 68 | | Hodeg | 70 | 77 | 76 | 72 |
With only 2 flat stages it is a fairly small field. Bonifazio will hope to make up for a poor season here, while Holloway, a similar sprinter, has experienced success against this kind of field in the Tour de Suisse.
(thanks to redordead for the code to set-up and color code the tables)
Full Start List
Edited by Ulrich Ulriksen on 04-06-2021 23:43
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-06-2021 06:15
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Last year De Bie lost contact in weird splits for no reason on every single stage despite being a top3 favourite and similar riders winning.
Can't need such scenario this year. With the latest trend expectations aren't high but pressure is highest.
All but a podium is too less and basically here to win the race and 1-2 stages. |
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-06-2021 07:18
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Given how Beltran has done this season, I can't expect anything more than ranging from a disaster to an underperformance. But if he can't perform in our only home race and the only race on the calendar that should cater to his stats, well then he's pretty much useless 
Thanks for the nice preview Ulrich 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 04-06-2021 07:29
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Directeur Sportif
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Such an important race. Hopefully Mohoric can do something. Calmejane should be a very good option, and I hope Alex Roman can prove the preview wrong for not being mentioned, he can use his climber/Puncheur skillet for a good GC if the race goes haywire.
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-06-2021 07:42
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World Champion
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Hmm that was a bit worse than expected. No chance Koretzky will come away with a succesful race here. I guess we have to be somewhat lucky for Boily to be the right statcombination to enter the top 10 instead, but seeing as he isn't even mentioned as an outsider I doubt that.
Bouglas not mentioned as a sprinter either can't be good. I would have put him atleast on par with Kuboki, Tivani and Aregger.
Let's see what happens. We need a decent race.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-06-2021 08:19
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World Champion
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Some high expectations here for a change, there's a few stages Oomen should like and Bonifazio has two chances to save his future with the team.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| ember |
Posted on 04-06-2021 08:27
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
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This has become a season defining race for us. We need a sensational result and points haul to stand a fair chance at avoiding relegation.
If we can’t manage, we’ll definitely relegate. |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 04-06-2021 08:29
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
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Hopefully Ulissi can achieve something brilliant and that the MO stay isn’t important at all.
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| knockout |
Posted on 04-06-2021 10:41
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
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Absolutely crucial race for Evonik. We need a huge performance from Lopez to catch up with Isostar again. In theory the profile should be pretty much perfect so i made sure to not block him with Skujins.
We also have Liepins here but i'm not too confident about him here... Partly because he didnt make the preview 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 04-06-2021 10:52
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Stages 3 and 8 here should really be ones for the climbers rather than the puncheurs, so it made sense to send Yates here and Turgis to Britain. Considering the strength of the field it's a gamble, but with Guerreiro in support we should be able to push the pace on the longer climbers and be competitive in reduced group sprints.
Van der Sande is here to have a crack at a stage win, and I wouldn't rule out him making it to the finish in the front group on a couple of the hilly stages as well. Whether he actually bothers to sprint is the real question though |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 04-06-2021 11:33
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Classics Specialist
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I see another reporter has converted to the redordead coding  Nice preview, I'm rooting for De Bie and Beltran, who haven't had the best of seasons yet
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 04-06-2021 19:31
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
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Pretty stacked startlist. Curious to see what Formolo can do here. Positioning might be crucial
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 04-06-2021 19:37
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World Champion
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Gonna need a win here. We'll see, but Kinoshita has done well here in the past (I think).
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| fintas |
Posted on 04-06-2021 21:27
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2602
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Jesus Christ pretty stacked startlist. Hopes of getting a good result here eventually disappear after looking at this start list
The only hope is that Paulinho's 76 MON will end up giving him some advantage over some of the other riders. Realistically I think the top15 will be the best we can achieve.
Lopez it's my bet for the final victory
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 04-06-2021 21:50
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Domestique
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I hope both teams from this region Isostar and Swisslion will proudly defend the honor as home teams and hope Mohorič, Polanc, Beltran... can show something great at this race.
Good luck to other teams too but my wishes are at Isostar and Swisslion 
I'm really interested to get information on where did they find so many climbs between Ljubljana in Zagreb. The only two climbs that are going into my mind are one around 20 km from Ljubljana and another one next to Novo mesto.
Wish you all good luck and great preview Ulrich.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 04-06-2021 23:50
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3262
Joined: 02-11-2010
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Feeling a little pressure here as this race seems to be make or break for a number of folks.
The field is really deep with strong climbers, puncheurs and sprinters, I missed a few all rounders because I didn't want to list the entire field in the preview.
I did somehow mess up the sprinters list so have fixed that so Leipins and Bouglas now show up. But that is a lot of sprinters trying to win 2 stages.
Since I started late it is my current plan to post one stage later today and two stages on Saturday and Sunday. Given I post on East Coast US time that means one mid-afternoonish site time and one overnight.
@Tinixia - I too have noticed that that relationship between mangame stages and the actual terrain is sometimes curious.
Good luck to all.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 05-06-2021 01:03
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World Champion
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TinxiaS wrote:
I'm really interested to get information on where did they find so many climbs between Ljubljana in Zagreb. The only two climbs that are going into my mind are one around 20 km from Ljubljana and another one next to Novo mesto.
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
@Tinixia - I too have noticed that that relationship between mangame stages and the actual terrain is sometimes curious.
Having taken a bus from Ljubljana to Zagreb myself, I could see how there are climbs between the two cities, but perhaps as UU said, the MG created roads where there are none irl.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 05-06-2021 05:06
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Team Leader
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TEKLIT
Fantastic report of what was a very exciting stage for those with riders in the breakaway. Teklit proving too strong for his companions and giving himself great time in the GC as well.
I don’t expect him to be able to hold on to the GC lead and I also have no idea how my team will react with Ulissi as my designated leader but I’m happy!
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| knockout |
Posted on 05-06-2021 09:57
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Grand Tour Champion
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Very annoyed about the result, we had four domestiques alongside Lopez in the top 40 and we couldnt be bothered to chase down the break? Not acceptable...
Hard to read anything into the favourites but Lopez finishing only behind Hagen and De Bie from the top guys looks solid
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| ember |
Posted on 05-06-2021 10:09
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Team Leader
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Great report, UU! Not so great start for us, with Kwiatkowski being invisible. Hopefully it turns out good, seeing there was no gaps among the GC contenders.
Big, big win for Aramco. Congratulations, LLS!
Also, and this is pure speculation from me, an idea for next season might be to have an uphill finish on the first stage in this race, as the descent and easy finish seems to heavily favour a breakaway in this PCM edition. It will be interesting to see where this race goes from here. Fingers crossed we get exciting racing and not passive GC contenders happy to ride with the bunch. |
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