The Post Danmark Rundt is sponsored by the Danish Postal Service, it could be translated as Mail Denmark Tour. Looking at its twelve-year history there are twelve different winners, in recent history mostly time trialists with decent hill quality. Last year the race was part of the HC calendar but has been downgraded to C2HC, to give local team Carlsberg a guaranteed home race. Who will win unlucky edition thirteen?
Profiles
Denmark is pretty flat, so don't expect mountains in this race. Instead we have three flat stages for the sprinters, one hilly stage and a time trial. Note that the hilly stage was actually quite tame last year, with many time trialists finishing in the first group. That route hasn't changed, so the puncheurs need to find other avenues to attack. Especially since the time trial is the closing stage, puncheurs have to go on the attack early.
Startlist
Puncheurs
HL
TT
SP
Time trialists
TT
HL
SP
Zaini
80
61
65
Dumoulin
78
68
65
Watson
78
68
62
Sterbini
78
66
57
Juul-Jensen
78
67
66
Cruz
78
63
68
Palini
78
66
68
Quaade
78
63
61
Eiking
78
65
68
Li
78
61
75
Quevedo
78
65
65
Ghyselinck
77
68
64
Mehr-Wenige
78
63
66
Downey
77
67
61
Flügel
78
62
65
Oram
77
64
69
Hugentobler
78
58
56
Sebright
77
60
54
Costa
77
73
66
Laizer
77
58
65
Pellaud
77
66
65
Koren
76
72
65
Hoelgaard
77
65
68
Ignatiev
76
71
68
Ben Nasser
77
64
68
Steensen
76
71
62
Tsatevich
77
60
75
Kiflay
76
68
66
Le Gac
77
60
64
Hamza
76
63
56
Smirnovs
77
56
72
Gretsch
76
61
68
Caruso
77
56
69
Richardson
75
68
58
Bru
77
54
66
Maccagli
75
66
63
Lienhard
75
66
73
Norsgaard
75
64
57
On the left, puncheurs, on the right, time trialists. Either category could provide the winner, but my money would be on the latter given the recent history. But we'll start on the left to keep the suspense.
Zaini is the best puncheur but amongst the worst time trialists, so he has to gain minutes on the hilly stage to even get in GC contention.
Riders like Watson, local hope Juul-Jensen, Palini, Eiking and Quevedo are all better than the Italian but not amazing either. Together they need to gain a lot of time on stage three.
Hugentobler does the unthinkable and is even rated worse than Zaini on the time trial. His pure goal this race should become winning the third stage, as should be the case for all previously mentioned.
The first rider who could use his specialties is Costa, who is by far the best time trialist amongst the puncheurs and perhaps the only one with a realistic shot of the overall victory.
Special mention to hilly sprinters Tsatevich and Lienhard who might pick up bonus seconds on the flatter stages.
So we find the GC contenders on the right side of the board, the time trialists. They will battle it out on the final stage, so don't expect any of them in yellow before the final stage. Not everyone is as adapted to the hills but a lower stat here is not as catastrophic as a lower time trial stat for the puncheurs.
Dumoulin is the top favorite on the right side because he has respectable hill capabilities, but not much more than a Sterbini. Cruz, local hero Quaade and Li might get in trouble on the hills, though the latter could compensate in the sprints.
Ghyselinck and Downey are on level with the Dutchman and are definitely contenders for the victory. Oram needs an easy hilly stage while Sebright and Laizer are expected to be amongst the first to lose contact.
Veteran Ignatiev won this race in 2017, a lifetime ago in cycling terms. However, with the reduced race category he once again comes into contention, definitely being the best puncheurs out of the top time trialists.
The white jersey will go to Maccagli or Norsgaard, especially since there isn't much competition on the puncheurs side.
Sprinters
SP
AC
HL
Sprinters
SP
AC
HL
Kragh Andersen
81
77
64
Sanikwathi
78
78
66
Bouhanni
80
77
63
Boev
78
78
65
Ulanowski
80
77
58
Yamamoto
78
78
65
Van Heerden
80
70
66
Altanzul
78
75
69
Scully
79
80
67
Von Hoff
78
75
65
Coutinho
79
80
65
Merino Criado
77
79
68
Bennett
79
79
64
Barbier
77
79
67
Krieger
79
79
62
Feiereisen
77
78
68
Manarelli
79
79
59
Sbaragli
77
78
66
Bertilsson
79
77
69
Habtom
77
78
61
Pelucchi
79
77
68
Schorn
77
77
61
Mezgec
79
77
67
Eislers
76
75
72
Three stages for the sprinters so obviously many contenders travel to Denmark, you'd say. However, La Tropicale Amissa Bongo brings only flat stages so the real superstars prefer to go to Gabon.
Carlsberg though couldn't resist sending another local here: Kragh Andersen. He might be the best sprinter here but also brings great responsibility.
Bouhanni and Ulanowski are his main rivals. Three stages means all three could take one stage, but don't expect that kind of negotiations.
Van Heerden always appears in this list but at one point we just have to accept he has to train his acceleration to be worthwhile to spend much attention on. He did win the second stage in 2015, being the only rider on the startlist other than Ignatiev to have won a stage here.
This race is mandatory for Continental Teams, while Bongo isn't, so some can afford to send their entire sprint train. Guave has Coutinho, Yamamoto, Barbier and Feiereisen. Heck they could even go for two sprint trains.
Other names to definitely appear hanging on to a train are Scully, Bennett, Krieger, Manarelli, Pelucchi, Mezgec, Sanikwathi, Boev and Von Hoff. Obviously some will leave disappointed as not all can be winners.
Huge race for us, which is pretty obvious I guess. We have to expect to show up for our sponsors as well as the available C2HC points. We didn't have a proper hybrid guy for overall victory after Steensen left, so that automatically put us at a disadvantage. Maybe it would have been worth risking Warbasse or Eg here as a sneaky coup, but it didn't work with race day rations. So, we have instead sent 3 Danish leaders to Denmark, one for each terrain.
AKA is obviously a top guy here, and we've sent every helper possible behind him. For that reason, I can hardly expect him to perform. We haven't formed a train all year, and even if Bertilsson and Eislers do their job this time, he could just as easily crack after a perfect leadout and end up outside the top ten. I have less faith in the importance of his flat and resistance than I did at the beginning of the year.
Our goal for him is very simple: a stage win and the green jersey. I don't expect to accomplish it. The sprint field is as wide as ever. I had hoped more guys would go to Tropicale Amissa Bongo so I could take advantage of the split field. Instead, it will basically be a toss up like always. Hopefully we can get lucky for once. Maybe the secret stat nationality bonus will save us.
We brought JJ for the hilly stage, and if we can force some selection, anything is possible. The question is really if we can. I'm not confident based on the last few years. At the very least we need a top 5, maybe a podium on stage 3 to make it worth JJ's race days. If we can somehow force some gaps, he might even have a shot at decent GC. But of course, we don't really have a team that can force that selection, so it's unlikely.
Then we have Quaade for the TT. TT's can be pretty random, so it could go either way for his chances to place. Problem is, he is maybe the worst climber of the time trialists, so no way he survives stage 3 even if it's relatively easy. He'll probably be better off saving it for a go at the stage win.
So, I hope to place in every stage, but it seems unlikely we can get many GC points here. It's improbable the race will be selective or unselective enough for JJ or Quaade. That makes it all the more important that we get as many stage points as possible, and feature our jersey frequently in positive settings.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
This is one of those races with one stage in it killing every kind of GC hope we might have... But we do at least have some goals for the remaining ones:
Scully has finally woken up in the Netherlands, scoring his second podium of the year in a C1 race. Unlike the reporter, I actually think we might build a train with Merino Criado and Lienhard/Walscheid - but I agree we haven't done so this far... Still, if he gets three good days on the flat, some nice stage results and a good position in the race for the green jersey could be possible. It would have been even more an option with Reinhardt, but he obviously goes to Africa...
For the hilly stage, we mainly bring Lienhard, hoping he'll join the breakaway, gets some good KoM points and wins the stage. Of course, that would be the optimal scenario, so it won't happen, but we still hope he gets some of those things right.
The TT then is way too long for any of our riders to get a lucky good result. Still, I hope that Mäder can compete for the Top 3 in the U25 standings, seeing that he trails Maccagli and Norsgaard by not that much and might gain a few seconds on the hilly stage. For the GC, though, we'd have to be very lucky to somehow sneak into the Top 30 I guess.
3rd string (5th string for the rest of you) here as Keough and the boys go to Gabon, Should have brought Frankovic to Denmark to hunt for some cheap points since Keough probably won't be using lead outs and that hilly stage might be well suited Frankovic.
The relatively strong sprint field here does give me hope that Keough won't be so far down the start list in Africa he doesn't sprint,
Keeping faith in AKA myself, I wonder if that low ACC is his Achilles heel. Kemboi and Holloway, the two other high FL/RS sprinters are both going pretty well.
Two-pronged attack with Dumoulin the odds-on leader, unless the hills have a serious impact. Watson is here for the hilly stage in case that becomes selective. For the sprints, Boev has been doing better than his stats suggest and we hope that continues. Not getting our hopes too high for this one, but we do expect a decent haul of points.
Not my strongest team here. Altanzul as our best sprinter/hill climber and has shown he can be competitive at times so that should be interesting. Von Hoff with his downgraded stats here so not sure what to expect. Hopefully the hill stage is a selective sprint for Altanzul to shine. I have a couple of younger TT riders so really not sure what to expect here...
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
3rd string (5th string for the rest of you) here as Keough and the boys go to Gabon, Should have brought Frankovic to Denmark to hunt for some cheap points since Keough probably won't be using lead outs and that hilly stage might be well suited Frankovic.
The relatively strong sprint field here does give me hope that Keough won't be so far down the start list in Africa he doesn't sprint,
Keeping faith in AKA myself, I wonder if that low ACC is his Achilles heel. Kemboi and Holloway, the two other high FL/RS sprinters are both going pretty well.
That would be my guess at this point, besides the general randomness. Kind of sucks though when the one thing that seemed obvious coming from PCM 15 was that ACC would now have less of an impact. I wonder at this point if it would have been better to raise his ACC and SPR with training.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
I guess we'll have to put all our hopes in to Koren which is an decent time trialler. I doubt Schorn get to do much here, and we haven't brougth any good puncheurs.
It seems ages ago we got a podium and I can't see it coming here either.
We need to drastically rebuild our squad in the off season if we want a chance to promote next season.
baseballlover312 wrote:
That would be my guess at this point, besides the general randomness. Kind of sucks though when the one thing that seemed obvious coming from PCM 15 was that ACC would now have less of an impact. I wonder at this point if it would have been better to raise his ACC and SPR with training.
I think he will score way more points with an ACC around 79 next season (in the PCT). Then he is a bit comparable with Saber imo, who has been doing quite well in C1 sprints. The best sprinter just doesn't seem to be doing as good as he should in general in PCM18, mostly because of the train system not working. Then also make sure his flat is not too high, as with a stacked field of sprinters the game then decides he is a rouleur instead of a sprinter and tries going for late attacks, as I have seen from several riders in my reports. 77 is already quite high, so unless you plan on getting his SPR (and ACC) to 82/83 I think it will be smart to leave it like that. But like I said, I would really consider training his sprint by 2 points, if you can find the funds of course.
Now to the race, but sticking with your team As home team and bringing two important ICL riders from my team there (Quaade and JJ), I hope you do well
We brought Manarelli here for the sprints. The only two races he really sprinted, he had four second places and one win in two stages. Obviously the competition here is tougher, but as he is still in the top-10 of sprinters I expect him to join the sprints and maybe/hopefully get a stage podium somewhere. As he should be too bad to have a train himself, I would like to see Quicibal attacking and scoring some KoM-points. Second stage would be ideal for him, so I expect him to go in the first stage where there are no available points
Our biggest hope of scoring isn't with stage success, but in the GC of course. Even though I am afraid stage 3 will be selective, you all seem to think it won't, which I hope is right. Didn't bring a puncheur (because we don't have one ), so we're putting everything on Sterbini in the time trial. I don't know in how far recovery will play a role, but except for that I think a top-5 in the GC must be doable, as long as he doesn't lose time on earlier stages.
Thank you for the preview Marco, I hope your former riders Manarelli and Bru show you what they've learned while riding for you (although we both know Bru won't be showing a lot )
Manarelli had an okay sprint, but terrible positioning. At least it is now sure that we won't leave this race without any points Congratulations to Tinxia once again, thank you Marco for the first report, and a "I feel sorry" for Brown and McCormick
I can live with 4th on the first stage, as I'm actually relieved that Scully indeed competes in those C2HC sprints. And I can live with being beaten by Krieger, but always losing to those weaker guys is getting really nasty. And having no breakaway rider in 90% of the stages ain't cool, either.
But I especially feel for bbl, who had a horrible start in his home tour Hoping things will turn around for you, mate!
Nemolito wrote:
Manarelli had an okay sprint, but terrible positioning. At least it is now sure that we won't leave this race without any points Congratulations to Tinxia once again, thank you Marco for the first report, and a "I feel sorry" for Brown and McCormick
Thanks for the thoughts, sure this isn't the first time he has finished last. He wanted to lose lots of time so he wouldn't be threat in the GC and go in breaks.
Nice ride by Menicuci, good breakaway appearances are our main goal.
Agree AKA could do with some ACC but with that kind of positioning luck he could have been an 85/85 and still not been a factor.
Really can't believe what Boev is doing this year. He has absolutely no special stats, no team support, but delivers constantly. Really a ridiculously good pick from Philips...
On the other hand, those random sprints really are a shame for those who invested serious money into their sprinters - mainly thinking of bbl, of course. And yeah, I'm pi**ed by Scully's result of course, but taking the leader's wheel on a flat stage is almost never the way to go, so that can be explained.
But the team really has to do something now. No clue why they never attack, we just don't seem to be among the select teams...
Thanks for the report, and congrats to Nordica on a win that's at least somewhat explainable.
I just have no idea how this kind of team performance is possible. 4th is better on paper? I guess. 4th itself is perfectly realistic. But no, I can't be happy about it. There's no optimism in this result. It only shows how insane this is. He wasn't out-sprinted, he just made choices that no professional cyclist would ever make.
I brought all flat guys here. AKA has more helpers than he could possibly need. We have 4 guys on the front pacing all day, and then they do absolutely nothing in the finale. Nothing. No train. In fact, they all disappear as soon as they're actually needed! Bertilsson has 79 sprint, good backups, and is nowhere to be seen. De Vreese is sprinting on his own for 12th for some ungodly reason, and everyone else took the day off.
AKA has 77 FLAT!! Staying in good position at the front should be the thing he is great at. It should be what makes him the most consistent if not the most explosive because of his ACC. He should not be the guy surging from 20th position just to grab a placing EVER, especially not in this race with these domestiques. He was given every single tool that is supposed to be important in the game engine, and the game just decides that it doesn't matter. Guys with low flat and resistance are in perfect position while he just randomly let's gaps go. There's no logic to it. He just decides to be stupid from day to day.
Why is my team riding all day to do nothing for the sprint? Why? Somebody explain it, please! Somebody explain to me how this stats engine and AI possibly make any sense. I've been waiting for the answer for so long, and it never comes. It's just pure stupidity. Stupid decisions, lucky breaks, it doesn't matter. We could win stage 4 and it wouldn't make up for it, it would only prove the rule of idiocy that this game has devolved to.
I shouldn't have trained AKA's sprint in the offseason, I should have paid for a special education tutor. He obviously has a severe learning disability that prevents him from knowing that as a sprinter, he should, idk, prepare for the sprint!!!
/rant
Sorry for the rage. To be clear, I don't think AKA "deserves" more than 4th over guys from other managers who put together their teams very well. It's just how the sprints happen that I am frustrated with. Congrats to Nordica, and thanks to Marcovdw for a great report. I'm sorry to tarnish your work with my anger, it's just hard to keep watching these things happen.
JJ better have some heroics tomorrow, it only feels like it will get worse.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
A bit sad for Luka Mezgec that he couldn't be in the top 10 today.
I hope my two TT leaders can be in the top 10 places and not lose time to the winner tomorrow.
Yesterday's performance from Luka Mezgec was a bit surprising as he won the stage and I'm really happy but I hope that my team can still get one good result in one of the stages or more like overall.
Thanks to everyone Congrats on the win KingTheManiak and thanks for the report Marco.
Boev is the gift that keeps on giving Didn't expect to be in any jersey but that's a huge bonus from this race. Stage 3 will be important for our GC ambitions.
Congrats to Nordica on the win and thanks for the report
Post Danmark Rundt 
As home team and bringing two important ICL riders from my team there (Quaade and JJ), I hope you do well 
)
Hoping things will turn around for you, mate!
