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ICL20 - Previews & Statistics
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 21-02-2021 20:26
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Domestique
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Thanks to everyone who is doing a great job with this statistic but I'm not sure if my team (Trans) will finish so high special if I'm looking at what happened in MG in the first half of the season. 
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 22-02-2021 01:54
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Directeur Sportif
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OZrocker wrote:
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
| WT | | | 1. Grupo Argos - Quala | 10,941 | | ... | | 5, Baku Synergy Plus | 7,915 | | 6. Team BP | 7,828 | | 7. Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team | 7,821 | | ... | | 13. KBC Godiva | 6,914 | | 14. Liberty Seguros | 6,857 | | ... |
I like this prediction! Don't expect it will actually come true, but it's nice to be in the top half of the table again 
I'm not sure how we got into 5th here, because aside from Dumoulin most of our leaders are really 2nd tier riders at best and are spread evenly across rider types. Even with their recent shift to a new generation I would be very surprised if Liberty Seguros finish that low. Betancur and Herrada will likely be split between races due to their low number of RDs, and top climbers can be very valuable for WT points through the Grand Tours.
The whole WT looks a lot more even this year, with only a few teams who are clearly above or below the average. Argos and Allianz aside, I think 3 of the top 5 spots could be very close and I think the previews so far are showing that. CT is a bit less even, with Equinor and Brugse the clear standouts. I wouldn't be surprised if Pedal Africa finally get promoted too - the years of development have left them with very nice squad depth.
Pretty close between 5th and 9th so maybe viewing it as more like 7th makes sense. Model has a lot of points with Mollema and Moreira so maybe overvaluing that. You have may have 2nd tier leaders but you have solid to strong ones for every terrain.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 23-02-2021 21:49
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Classics Specialist
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Here is the age distribution of all professional riders (no U23 teams) in the 2020 ICL peloton as well as the best rider per year of birth:
| Year | # | Best | AVG | | 1982 | 1 | Contador | 80.5 | | 1983 | 2 | Van den Broeck | 72.5 | | 1984 | 2 | Nibali | 80.1 | | 1985 | 8 | Cavendish | 80.1 | | 1986 | 19 | Mollema | 78.9 | | 1987 | 44 | Kristoff | 78.5 | | 1988 | 47 | Kittel | 80.4 | | 1989 | 76 | Majka | 80.8 | | 1990 | 76 | Bardet | 81.9 | | 1991 | 90 | Barguil | 81.2 | | 1992 | 70 | Polanc | 79.9 | | 1993 | 62 | Van Poppel | 80.4 | | 1994 | 72 | Herklotz | 80.4 | | 1995 | 69 | Van der Poel | 78.7 | | 1996 | 88 | Spagnoli | 77.1 | | 1997 | 51 | Pulido | 76.0 | | 1998 | 31 | Dumont | 74.8 | | 1999 | 16 | Uribarrena | 70.1 | | 2000 | 9 | Hamilton | 70.5 | | 2001 | 1 | Foster | 67.4 |
2019
2018
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 23-02-2021 22:03
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Small Tour Specialist
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DAVETWOBOBS ICL20 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING
[EDIT] - Welcome to late joiners Cadejo - Bike Xpress, they have been added to the preview. Not surprising that they are predicted in last place with a regional focus and missing out on bidding for the top riders. Hope they can still have some fun this season. The new list also includes the renamed Strava - ANZ.
The model indicates four teams are fighting it out for the title. Bosch Cycling Team are very narrow title favourites. Magnum – Madshus, Shell Pro Cycling and Brugse Zot - Trek are in the mix for the title with Equinor Pro Cycling Team as outsiders.
However the model does not well handle single dominant riders who cover multiple terrains which means these results could be misleading e.g. Florian Senechal at VIP Mobile
The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.
| Team | Score | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | Diff | % | | 1 | Bosch Cycling Team | 2517 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 10 | | | | 2 | Magnum - Madshus | 2512 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -5 | 0% | | 3 | Brugse Zot - Trek | 2475 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -42 | -2% | | 4 | Shell Pro Cycling | 2374 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 3 | -143 | -6% | | 5 | Equinor Pro Cycling Team | 2304 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 1 | -213 | -8% | | 6 | Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | 2201 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 7 | -316 | -13% | | 7 | Trans Cycling Team | 2156 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 11 | -361 | -14% | | 8 | Education First x Palace - Nippo | 2055 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 15 | -462 | -18% | | 9 | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | 2042 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 9 | -475 | -19% | | 10 | Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | 2019 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 13 | -498 | -20% | | 11 | Tierra del Fuego | 2007 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 16 | -510 | -20% | | 12 | Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | 1949 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 | -568 | -23% | | 13 | Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | 1845 | 8 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 12 | -672 | -27% | | 14 | Nordea Bank - SAP | 1825 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -692 | -27% | | 15 | Millenium - LATAM Airlines | 1792 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 19 | -725 | -29% | | 16 | Strava - ANZ | 1616 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 19 | 4 | -901 | -36% | | 17 | Team Cymru Wales | 1611 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 2 | -906 | -36% | | 18 | ICBC Cycling Team | 1599 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 20 | -918 | -36% | | 19 | VIP Mobile | 1486 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 1 | 17 | -1031 | -41% | | 20 | Cadejo - Bike Xpress | 1388 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 13 | -1129 | -45% |
CT Team Top Rider per Terrain
| Team | MO | HIL | TT | COB | SP | | Bosch Cycling Team | Silvio Herklotz | Silvio Herklotz | Silvio Herklotz | Harrison Adams | Fabian Schnaidt | | Magnum - Madshus | Dominik Nerz | Dominik Nerz | Rasmus Quaade | Greg Van Avermaet | Frederique Robert | | Brugse Zot - Trek | Charles Engeldinger | Charles Engeldinger | Taylor Phinney | Taylor Phinney | Taylor Phinney | | Shell Pro Cycling | Mikel Landa | Mikel Landa | Sam Bewley | Matthew Brandt | Adam Blythe | | Equinor Pro Cycling Team | Vegard Stake Laengen | Gianfranco Zilioli | Steffen Hovland | Simon Strøm | Andrea Guardini | | Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor | Thomas Nybo Riis | Wout Poels | Fredrik Ludvigsson | Jonas Ahlstrand | Jonas Ahlstrand | | Trans Cycling Team | Pieter Serry | Pieter Serry | Geraint Thomas | Geraint Thomas | Andrej Rajsp | | Education First x Palace - Nippo | Rigoberto Urán | Rigoberto Urán | Cameron Pugh | Pablo Alzaga | Frederik Plesner | | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | Mykyta Sklar | Leopold König | Patrik Šimek | Igor Onofrei | Alexey Tsatevitch | | Pedal Africa for Qhubeka | Natnael Berhane | Tsgabu Grmay | Christopher Mwaanga | Hendrik van der Merwe | Jani Tewelde | | Tierra del Fuego | Juan Chamorro | Juan Chamorro | Eduardo Sepulveda | Roberto Romero Martínez | Rick Zabel | | Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry | Daniel Martin | Daniel Martin | Anthony Desjardins | Philip Lavery | Xavier Langlois | | Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm | Yannick Eijssen | Yannick Eijssen | Yannick Eijssen | Tony Gallopin | Kris Boeckmans | | Nordea Bank - SAP | Jesper Hansen | Pello Bilbao | Søren Andersen | Anders Egsvang | Andrea Palini | | Millenium - LATAM Airlines | Frederico Figueiredo | Michael Boroš | Nelson Oliveira | Dario Antonio | Rafael de Mattos Andriato | | Strava - ANZ | Angus Chapman | Jack Haig | Campbell Flakemore | Campbell Flakemore | Leigh Howard | | Team Cymru Wales | Nathan Earle | Nathan Earle | Samuel Harrison | Luke Grivell-Mellor | Andrew Fenn | | ICBC Cycling Team | Dealton Nur | Maxat Ayazbayev | Daniil Fominykh | Ji Min Jung | Hayato Yoshida | | VIP Mobile | Nikita Novikov | Nikita Novikov | Vito Pogacar | Florian Senechal | Florian Senechal | | Cadejo - Bike Xpress | Julian Arredondo | Diego Ochoa | Thomas Rose | Sebastian Lander | Sebastian Lander |
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| Ripley |
Posted on 23-02-2021 23:08
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Classics Specialist
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Lowest wage per Main Stat
I used the pre-research db to exclude training, in case of a tie I picked the rider with the highest AVG, though there were more ties, of course. About half the names are unchanged since last season:
| Level | | Mon | | HIL | | SPR | | COB | | TT | | | | | | | | | | | | | 75 | | 200 | | 230 | | 180 | | 170 | | 145 | | | Perichon | | Wallays | | Erdin | | Serry | | Zakarin | | | | | | | | | | | | | 76 | | 240 | | 310 | | 190 | | 250 | | 250 | | | Meijers | | Brambilla | | Kerrison | | Lindeman | | Sepulveda | | | | | | | | | | | | | 77 | | 310 | | 340 | | 340 | | 350 | | 275 | | | Laengen | | Kreuziger | | Arndt | | Van Avermaet | | Brown | | | | | | | | | | | | | 78 | | 400 | | 530 | | 340 | | 530 | | 370 | | | Chamorro | | Moreira | | Kreder | | Biermans | | Campenaerts | | | | | | | | | | | | | 79 | | 660 | | 900 | | 695 | | 550 | | 500 | | | Atapuma | | Polanc | | Howard | | Van Asbroeck | | Flakemore | | | | | | | | | | | | | 80 | | 900 | | 1400 | | 765 | | 970 | | 695 | | | Polanc | | Herrada | | Nizzolo | | Vanmarcke | | Vorobyev | | | | | | | | | | | | | 81 | | 1240 | | 1570 | | 1125 | | 1855 | | 865 | | | Majka | | Bardet | | Cavendish | | Senechal | | Durbridge | | | | | | | | | | | | | 82 | | 1400 | | | | | | | | | | | Herrada | | | | | | | | |
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| DarkWolf |
Posted on 24-02-2021 06:08
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Protected Rider
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Welcome to late joiners Cadejo - Bike Xpress, they have been added to the preview. Not surprising that they are predicted in last place with a regional focus and missing out on bidding for the top riders.
It is rumored that Cadejo's team manager was heard saying behind closed doors: "That's why I hate journalists, they're nosy, noisy and know-it-all. They think that their soulless numbers, analysis and predictions can replace professional work and are a substitute for the pain, sweat and motivation of our cycling team."
Just kidding there. On a serious note, thank you. It's good to be here. I didn't expect anything else being late in signing up. Nonetheless I am having fun already. And I do like building teams up from a specific region, usually one which is not prominent in real cycling. Hopefully I can do that here too. Of course, I did that only through PCM, but I always followed the management games here and I finally gathered the courage to join with a little bit more free time ahead. Sure, I wish my fun will not be only associated with pain.  |
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| Ripley |
Posted on 24-02-2021 08:15
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Classics Specialist
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Glad to hear it. Scouting and then the next transfer season will surely give you the opportunity to improve the team and/or to focus more on your region.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 24-02-2021 09:33
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Small Tour Specialist
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Thanks for all the stats Ripley.
I notice Suntory has the cheapest and most expensive rider in this table
Edit - only the second most expensive now I look closer 
@Bardas - good to hear you are having fun - hope you have lots of money set aside for scouting as its a great way to find regional talents for a dev team next season.
Edited by DaveTwoBob on 24-02-2021 15:35
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 24-02-2021 14:31
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Grand Tour Specialist
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While at first it might look like I have good negotiation skills having two riders on this "lowest wage per stat" list, it's rather because they're among those with the lowest AVG... Chamorro is the worst 78 climber in the game, due to his bad RES, and Sepulveda is among the lower ones, too - probably for the same reason. So now it's up to them to still live up to their main stat - or at least get a good wage / RD ratio
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| Ripley |
Posted on 24-02-2021 14:38
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Classics Specialist
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it's rather because they're among those with the lowest AVG..
That's implied, of course. Maybe I'll do another table with AVGs in mind.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 24-02-2021 18:51
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In the tradition of obscure statistics: The very weakest domestiques give you about 100 RD for a wage of 100, so each race day costs 1... iclcoin. Here are the 26 riders who cost at least 20 coins per race day (again, before training):
| Name | Wage | RD | W/RD | | Quintana | 2005 | 42 | 47.7 | | Kwiatkowski | 2150 | 46 | 46.7 | | Aru | 1670 | 43 | 38.8 | | Senechal | 1855 | 49 | 37.9 | | Barguil | 1700 | 45 | 37.8 | | Bardet | 1570 | 42 | 37.4 | | Sagan | 1915 | 55 | 34.8 | | Contador | 1610 | 47 | 34.3 | | Mohoric | 1675 | 50 | 33.5 | | Herrada | 1400 | 44 | 31.8 | | Van Keirsbulck | 1400 | 45 | 31.1 | | Nibali | 1500 | 50 | 30.0 | | Majka | 1240 | 46 | 27.0 | | Yates | 1370 | 52 | 26.3 | | Degenkolb | 1425 | 55 | 25.9 | | Phinney | 1290 | 50 | 25.8 | | Betancur | 1275 | 51 | 25.0 | | Kittel | 1340 | 54 | 24.8 | | Herklotz | 1280 | 52 | 24.6 | | Van Garderen | 1160 | 49 | 23.7 | | Van Poppel | 1245 | 54 | 23.1 | | Demare | 1300 | 57 | 22.8 | | Bouhanni | 1250 | 55 | 22.7 | | Nerz | 1200 | 53 | 22.6 | | Cavendish | 1125 | 55 | 20.5 | | Lutsenko | 1080 | 54 | 20.0 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 05:03
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 24-02-2021 23:48
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Interesting that 3 of the top 4 were signed as FA this year - seems like some of the guys further down the list should be driving a hard bargain in renewals next year.
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| DarkWolf |
Posted on 25-02-2021 06:25
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@Bardas - good to hear you are having fun - hope you have lots of money set aside for scouting as its a great way to find regional talents for a dev team next season.
I'm not sure how much is lots, but I do have some set aside as it's my intention to use the scouting for my team and a future dev team. |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 25-02-2021 07:32
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Tour de France Champion
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Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Interesting that 3 of the top 4 were signed as FA this year - seems like some of the guys further down the list should be driving a hard bargain in renewals next year.
Not really since wages usually go down in the renewals and guys like GVK, Mohoric and Herrada have become primarily more expensive by adapting wages to training and success and not relentless bidding up. If someone wants to pay 2k for top riders they should but don't take it as an incentive to further drive up prices on everyone else.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 25-02-2021 23:19
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Directeur Sportif
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Shonak wrote:
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Interesting that 3 of the top 4 were signed as FA this year - seems like some of the guys further down the list should be driving a hard bargain in renewals next year.
Not really since wages usually go down in the renewals and guys like GVK, Mohoric and Herrada have become primarily more expensive by adapting wages to training and success and not relentless bidding up. If someone wants to pay 2k for top riders they should but don't take it as an incentive to further drive up prices on everyone else.
A market sets prices - if riders like those 3 can get paid 2,000 on the market I think it means others are underpriced not they are overpriced. Ripley very kindly demonstrated for us that high point scoring riders are undervalued on a price per point basis. I thought that made Quintana worth 2005, someone else thought he was worth 2,000. It don't think it was "relentless bidding up".
There should be some premium for developing and retaining riders, I am not saying that everyone should instantly priced based on Quintana but I am saying that the market is the best indicator of relative value and therefore should be a reference point. If you don't do that you are just creating an aristocracy of teams who have existed for a while and are able to turn their longevity into a permanent advantage by retaining riders at below market rates.
Hope this doesn't comes across as obnoxious. In this case the argument benefits me, but I will always argue for things that make the game dynamic, I will try to have the decency to do that when it doesn't advantage me.
Edited by Ulrich Ulriksen on 25-02-2021 23:51
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| Shonak |
Posted on 26-02-2021 09:12
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Don't really see much reason to get into an argument but oh well...
Having seen this play out a couple of times, it is not new that the initial market price is higher up than normal renwals. Bardet went for far higher initial price than Herrada (who is doped up) and yet the price difference between Bardet and Herrada is very marginal by now. So I rather stick to this comparison then to compare it to "new bid" riders, a) whose wage results from a different system (bid vs renewal) and b) whose attractiveness is determined by the supply.
As far as I understand the prices were significantly pushed up in the renewals and experiences like Tao Gheoghan Hart showed that you could get a rider cheaper in bidding, too.
Honestly I don't get why it is good to already call for the next change when we don't even know how the current system will adapt. You talk about market sets prices, then you also know that this is a question of supply and demand. If you drive up prices of "stalled" riders more then the bidding system will become so cheap that there is no difference between keeping and bidding for riders. To make it a bit of a bleak future, moves like TGH will become the norm then. That sounds like a horrible system to me as it has significant impact on long-term perspectives on especially national or discpline focused teams.
I also don't understand what you refer to "premium" for developing and retaining riders.. We already have a significant premium on that. Developing and training riders costs a lot of cash, especially if you hold those young talents at relatively high wages early on and then want to plan with them for years, like Spagnoli, Albine etc. Those guys are highly compensated for relatively lack of scoring; basically the premium you pay now to have them become a strong rider eventually. Sure you can increase the wage demands but does it actually help the game and make it more dynamic when the first thing should be to retain players and have high engagement?
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ripley |
Posted on 26-02-2021 20:29
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I think UU meant the opposite with "premium". In any case, Bikex just raised the wage demands of top scorers - even far enough that I didn't renew Tao - and I think it's become tough enough.
Shonak is right, there are plenty more factors to consider. Also, your sample size is very small and the transfer system isn't 100%... accurate/transparent/rational/etc. For example, Phinney was picked up below market value, I reckon, while 1855 for Senechal seems like a lot. Cav was pretty cheap when compared to Quintana. Your own Kittel seems a better deal (Pts/Wage), plus he won't decline at the end of the season. While there wasn't a bidding war for Kwiatkowski, Ceramica just threw everything they had into their opening bid.
So, no, we shouldn't just base wages on what you happened to pay for Quintana.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 27-02-2021 13:08
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I made it multiple choice to make it a little easier, the answers and some more stats follow in the spoilers. We have 1019 riders under contract across the three divisions.
How many have potential 7?
Spoiler 73: The WT is hogging most of them, I'm afraid. 55 ride in the WT, only 9 each in the CT and U23. Grupo Argos alone has 13, Suntory 6, Allianz 5, Filiers and Peugeot 4 each. In the WT only Sevilla and Vegeta have none.
How many have potential 3 or less?
Spoiler 36: 10 in the WT, 21 in the CT and 5 in the U23. Just one of them has pot 1, Ervins Rubins. 3 have pot 2, Epalanga, Borcy and Tarvis.
AVG 79.0+ is rewarded with a red colour in the db. How many riders fulfil the requirement?
Spoiler 36: 31 of them ride for WT teams, 5 of CT teams (Herklotz, Senechal, Phinney, Guardini and Nerz). On paper, the best rider is Bardet (81.9) followed by Quintana (81.8) and Aru (81.7). Only Herrada, Barguil and GVK also have an AVG of 81.0+.
How many riders have surpassed their “natural” age of decline (that is, independent of Potions of Youth)?
Spoiler 34: Contador is leading the pack, his AoD is 5 years behind him, but thanks to (a record) 4 PoYs he's still near his top level. Monfort and Van den Broeck are 4 years past their prime, they got one PoY each, but they are still just about good enough for their Belgian teams. Two seasons ago the answer was 52 and Samuel Sanchez and Fedrigo were still racing at the age of 40.
How many riders who qualify for the U23 (are 23 or younger and have an AVG of 72.0 or less) are already racing at professional level?
Spoiler 73: The only 19-year old professional is Ionannis Foster (Strava). 9 are 20 years old, 3 of them ride in the WT (Latham, Kubicki and Blok). Weakest by AVG are Chad Drummond (63.1) and Raymond Thibaut (63.3).
How many daredevils have DHI 80+?
Spoiler 5: Albini is king with DHI 85, Nibali has 82, Sagan as well as Conva and De Grootte have 80 each. Nibali is the only rider who can really utilise his skill, the rest just can't climb well enough. Sagan has MON 70, Albini has 64, De Grootte 62 and Konwa 60.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 27-02-2021 15:28
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Small Tour Specialist
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got just 2 right answers
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 27-02-2021 16:27
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Directeur Sportif
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Shonak wrote:
Don't really see much reason to get into an argument but oh well...
There is a lot fun to be had in a good argument held in the right spirit.
Ripley was right by a premium I was agreeing with you - I meant there should be a reward for development, You should get to keep riders you develop once they are good at below market or why bother developing, as you say. I just think there should be a limit to a team's ability to retain that premium and that over time wages should float up to "market" rates
I didn't mean to call for a specific change in the rules nor was I saying the small sample size values in the market are perfect. I was calling attention to an interesting difference since Ripley took the time to post the analysis (agree the sprinters aren't as out of line but Aru, who I think was a free agent last season, is high up the list as well).
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