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Lisbon Classic Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 31-01-2021 10:32
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Grand Tour Champion
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 Lisbon Classic
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2019 | Jonathan Bellis | cycleYorkshire | | 2018 | Bryan Coquard | Festina – Dexia | | 2017 | Lukasz Wisniowski | Grieg – Eftel | | 2016 | Georgos Tzortzakis | Team I-Gen - Festina | | 2015 | Dan Holloway | Red Bull - Huawei | | 2014 | Filippo Pozzato | VolksWagen-Mapei | | 2013 | Marcus Burghardt | Team Bacardi |
The 28th of April is a busy day in Pro Continental cycling. The Tour of Ukraine is well on its way, as well as the sprinter's classic Veenendaal - Veenendaal. I would have loved to sit behind my kitchen window and wave at the riders passing by, but instead I have been asked by my employer to visit Lisbon to report on the local classic. It is a C1-rated sprinters classic, which also allows Continental teams to participate. We have eleven PCT teams and seven CT teams for a startlist of 135 riders. Looking at the list of victors it does not appear to be a guaranteed sprinters victory. Sure, names like Coquard and Holloway have won, but the most recent winner is Bellis, a rider known to like a hill, and in 2017 we had Wisniowski, a rider who likes to attack. No one has won the race twice, and as no former winner participates this year, we are guaranteed to get our eighth different winner.
Profile
The riders start in Lisbon in the morning and finish 205 kilometer later in... Lisbon. During the day they have to conquer some hills. They are not necessarily difficult but there are a lot of them. Despite there not being many kilometers which are flat, the race is rated as flat by the organizers. The last true hill is ten kilometer from the finish line, but Bellis placed his winning attack at thirty kilometer. The sprinters will have to fight to get to the line in the first group, and have no attackers ahead of them to spoil their party.
Startlist
| Favorites | SP | ACC | HL | Outsiders | SP | ACC | HL |  Gaviria | 81 | 84 | 72 |  Vingerling | 79 | 79 | 62 |  Maksimov | 81 | 84 | 60 |  Aberasturi | 79 | 78 | 64 | | Nelson | 81 | 81 | 60 |  Boev | 78 | 78 | 65 |  Saber | 81 | 79 | 68 |  Modolo | 77 | 79 | 72 | | Mohs | 80 | 77 | 62 |  Kreder | 77 | 78 | 75 |  Lay | 79 | 81 | 60 |  Redecker | 77 | 78 | 72 |  Boivin | 79 | 80 | 70 | Kreder | 77 | 78 | 69 |  Van der Sande | 79 | 79 | 70 | Habtom | 77 | 78 | 61 |  Krieger | 79 | 79 | 62 | Naesen | 77 | 76 | 72 |  Manarelli | 79 | 79 | 59 | McLay | 77 | 76 | 67 |  Houle | 79 | 78 | 75 | Korosec | 75 | 78 | 75 |
The startlist looks quite weak, at least in terms of sprinters. They prefer the third-largest city in the province of Utrecht with 65000 inhabitants over the half a million in the capital of Portugal. I don't blame them if that's the case, but perhaps it has more to do with the profile.
The top favorite is Gaviria. Amongst the fastest sprinters, but also manages to handle hills quite well. He will be there at the end no matter how hard the race is ridden.
Maksimov and Nelson are a match to the Colombian if this race did not include hills, but it does. Neither is particularly fond of the hills and will be amongst those in danger if the pace is increased there.
Saber is slightly behind Gaviria, but definitely should not be discounted. He might not be able to gain on him on the hills but he also will be difficult to drop.
One of four riders to have been to the podium in this race is Mohs, finishing runner-up to Wisniowski in 2017. It is the same route, so he did survive the hills that time. Can he do so again today?
Houle is a proper punchy sprinter, a rider known to shine in hilly races with flat finishes. A similar characterization for W. Kreder, Strava selecting a race which should suit them.
Nordstrom elects to send Kump to Veenendaal instead of Lisbon, despite him being a perfect fit for this race. Boivin is by no means a bad alternative though, just not on the level of the former World Champion.
Ranking leaders Farfetch have an option to score here with Van der Sande, who gets the #1 bib. Campari leads with Lay but the Spaniard is not looking forward to the hills.
Krieger and Manarelli get a chance to battle against their PCT rivals, but their managers might need to take a better look at the profile. Trans and Bralirwa did look for longer than five seconds and sends Modolo- Korosec and Redecker- Naesen who should all be better suited. Boev from Philips might just be good enough to survive but only just.
| Puncheurs | HL | SP | ACC | Others | HL | SP | ACC |  Meyer | 79 | 72 | 77 |  Oliveira | 74 | 74 | 76 | | Gebrezgabihier | 79 | 67 | 69 | Debesay | 74 | 69 | 78 | | Barbin | 78 | 71 | 76 | Oss | 72 | 72 | 71 | | Hugentobler | 78 | 56 | 76 | Van Avermaet | 72 | 74 | 72 | | Felline | 77 | 74 | 78 | Bru | 77 | 66 | 72 | | Meurisse | 77 | 71 | 78 | Mudarra | 77 | 64 | 68 | | Areruya | 77 | 68 | 74 | Skjerping | 77 | 58 | 65 | | Roux | 77 | 56 | 74 |  Vanspeybrouck | 70 | 66 | 68 | | Guerreiro | 77 | 72 | 72 | Breakaway | ? | ? | ? |
We should not discount puncheurs on this route, the hills are suited for a late attack. Similar to the sprinters, the big guns decide to go elsewhere, either Ukraine or their couch.
The one stand-out is Meyer. Eddie Stobart goes against the grain by not selecting a sprinter, a bold move but it could be gold for the Continental team. Gebrezgabihier doesn't quite have the same acceleration.
Other puncheurs which have the necessary acceleration to get away are Barbin, Hugentobler, Felline, Meurisse, Areruya and Roux.
Guerreiro is one of two Portuguese riders to participate, the other being Duolingo's Oliveira. The fans will only have two riders to cheer for behind their kitchen window, but that might be enough for the former to show himself near the end.
The riders, beside Mohs, to have finished on the podium before are Oss (second in 2013), Van Avermaet (third in 2017) and Debesay (second last year). However, past results are no guarantee for the future.
Andorra has no real contender in either table, but I'd feel bad if it was the only team to go unmentioned. Vanspeybrouck is their leader due to experience but unfortunately this race is solely asphalt. A morning breakaway is always possible!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 31-01-2021 10:43
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Classics Specialist
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I did have a look at the profile, but the other choice I had concerning sprinters was Guillén 
I do agree that this race doesn't suit my team though, don't really know why I picked this race in general. My best hope for a decent result should probably be the breakaway, if I'm lucky Petrovski joins it. For RP reasons would be nice to see Ulloa in the breakaway though, as our home rider has really shown a lot of attacking spirit so far this season, trying to get the attention of PCT teams to loan him next season I guess 
Thank you for the preview, I'll make sure to record Veenendaal - Veenendaal on my Ziggo Mediabox XL and send you the tape.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 05:28
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 31-01-2021 11:41
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We need a very selective race for Redecker and Naesen to have a shot at a good result here. Seeing us as the fifth team listed by the game gives me hope that it sees Naesen as a proper contender and treats him as such when it comes to positioning and following potential attacks. A lot of possible outcomes here, could see us in the Top 5 or outside the Top 25. Thanks for the preview, looking forward to the race!
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 31-01-2021 13:30
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Domestique
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I really hope that Barbin, Korošec, and Modolo will have a good day finally but it will be still hard compare to other teams and stronger riders.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 31-01-2021 13:45
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Team Leader
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No aspirations whatsoever here. Oliveira to have a free role to do whatever he likes. Always and unpredictable race, similar to MSR actually.
Thanks for the preview Marco! Cheers!
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 31-01-2021 16:30
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Directeur Sportif
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Not a lot of hopes. We're just here to try to be a nuisance to the favourites.
Thanks for the preview Marco
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 31-01-2021 17:21
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Tour de France Champion
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Given their lack of climbing ability my expectations of the Rick-Jon combo is just to be around the Top10, but they've not been doing too badly this year.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 31-01-2021 19:03
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World Champion
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Win goal here, which makes me happy Kump isn't present. I'm afraid of Houle though.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 01-02-2021 11:15
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Classics Specialist
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Hope our guys enjoyed their vacation in Portugal. Thanks for the report Marco and congratulations to Eddie Stobart and also a strong Strava!
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| knockout |
Posted on 01-02-2021 11:17
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
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Huge results for CT teams with Eddie Stobart and Strava outperforming their expectations hugely. Love that the lucky dice roll hit sutty and Shonak, congrats to both of them!
Also very cool to see Saber finally scoring big - as i wrote earlier today, it was time for some big points for Swisslion 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 01-02-2021 11:18
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Given their lack of climbing ability my expectations of the Rick-Jon combo is just to be around the Top10, but they've not been doing too badly this year.
Ricki impressive there, out rider a ton of better climbers to get a solid Top10. Can't complain at all with that, just makes Veenendal look even worse
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 01-02-2021 11:18
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Team Manager
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cunego59 wrote:
We need a very selective race for Redecker and Naesen to have a shot at a good result here. Seeing us as the fifth team listed by the game gives me hope that it sees Naesen as a proper contender and treats him as such when it comes to positioning and following potential attacks. A lot of possible outcomes here, could see us in the Top 5 or outside the Top 25. Thanks for the preview, looking forward to the race!
Well that optimism was thoroughly misplaced  I would have hoped that Naesen would join that exact kind of late attack, but his positioning was just poor. At least Carr showed up in the breakaway. Congrats to my fellow CT mates though, cool to see them upsetting the PCT establishment 
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| redordead |
Posted on 01-02-2021 11:28
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Well that was fun seeing Saber getting dropped like a yoyo on the hills while sprinters with a lower hill stat stayed up front. A 5th place is a good result, but I believe it's all a bit to little to late for us.
Congrats to Sutty on a win and thank you for the report Marco.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 01-02-2021 11:39
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World Champion
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Did we just make the race too hard? The idea was to tire the other sprinters on the hills, not to annihate the pack.
Congrats Sutty! If anyone beats me here, I'm happy it's you! And as always, thanks for an excellent report Marco.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 01-02-2021 12:17
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Directeur Sportif
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Awesome result by Strava and Eddie Stobart. Congrats sutty! Great to see Isostar alumni Kuz doing so well, also I love the efforts of Saber. Houle could've done much better though.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 01-02-2021 12:39
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We have had many riders up in the front, performing well all around and making the race hard. So that was great to see - finally we show a bit of that old Strava ways.
That it is the Russian attacking with arguably some of the weaker hill stats is a bit bad luck, would have been better to have Felline or Roux who could have won. Gratz to sutty, thanks for the nice report.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 01-02-2021 14:50
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Looked promising for a while but wasn't to be. At least it wasn't a 0 pointer with Bovenhuis getting some points. He's had his best month so far.
Awesome result for Eddie Stobart and Strava here . Love to see Saber back in form as well! Thanks for the report Marco.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 01-02-2021 18:16
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Brillant! Both Summerhill and Vanspeybrouck putting those massive engines for good use and both getting a 3rd place in non-suited races, every point is important and these racked up a whole lot of them.
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 01-02-2021 18:21
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Tour de France Champion
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What would i do without Meyer
Thanks for the congratulations !!! |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 01-02-2021 23:20
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The expected unexpected result doesn't disappoint. Great outcome for Eddie Stobart. Huge win sutty congratulations!
Nice seeing Sipos making use of this free role and getting a top25.
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
