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Tour of Eritrea Discussion
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 27-12-2020 15:03
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 Tour of Eritrea
Hi and welcome to Eritrea!
The local Tour is about to set off for its 8th edition, having had its inaugural version back in 2013 with Gomez Marchante taking the crown at the time. Eventual winners of this race include names as big as Marquez, Kwiatkowski, Amador, Kudus and the most recent, Pinot, in 2019.
With so many prominent climbers on that list you know what's in store for the next days to come: climbing.
The Eritreans prefer the "one big day of climbing" style of racing, packing all the juice of the GC battle on stage 3 where we reach Asmara. Stage 4 will see the riders go back the same route with a few hills on the way to the finish, while the final day has that horror seesaw profile with almost no respite, which should prove tough enough to at least tinker with the GC.
| MON | HIL | | MON | HIL |  Pinot | 80 | 74 |  Kuss | 78 | 71 |  Ratiy | 80 | 70 |  Cort Nielsen | 78 | 74 |  Marquez | 79 | 70 |  Jaramillo | 77 | 75 |  Chamorro | 78 | 75 |  Saggiorato | 77 | 73 |  Ndayisenga | 78 | 75 | Jang | 76 | 76 | | Manfredi | 78 | 65 | Henao | 76 | 76 |  Frankiny | 78 | 76 |  Dall'Oste | 76 | 76 |  Keinath | 78 | 75 |  Schultz | 76 | 76 |  Fabbro | 78 | 75 | Silva | 76 | 73 | | Warbasse | 78 | 75 | Pavlic | 75 | 72 | | Atapuma | 78 | 73 |  Khodayari | 75 | 73 | | Lunke | 78 | 72 | Pernsteiner | 75 | 77 | | Signorini | 78 | 69 | Seibeb | 75 | 76 |
Unsurprisingly Pinot is back for the defense of his title. He could be seen as favourite no.1, being reigning champion and riding for an African team, but he is sure to find fierce competition. You have the pure mountain goats like Marquez who could prove to be a serious pain in the rear, while a number of teams have some serious depth in their ranks like Centovalli, Carslberg, Europcar or , Carrefour, Tryg, Sauber, Philips or perhaps more dangerously Nordica. The list doesn't stop there with plenty of other meritable climbers more than capable of taking their bite of the pie.
We also have some pure puncheurs looking to get a break from the GC battle, or just here to protect their leaders on those less certain hilly days:
| Hill | | Hill | | Zaini | 80 | Hoelgaard | 77 |  Meyer | 79 | Paulus | 77 | | Quevedo | 78 | Zordan | 77 |  Eiking | 78 | Caruso | 77 |  Barbin | 78 | Ben Nasser | 77 | | Hugentobler | 78 |  Felline | 77 | | Mehr-Wenige | 78 | Pellaud | 77 | | Anuar Aziz | 78 | Roux | 77 | | Watson | 78 | |
And finally we have the sprinters:
| FLA | SPR | ACC | | FLA | SPR | ACC | | Kragh Andersen | 77 | 81 | 77 | Keough | 73 | 79 | 79 | | Van Heerden | 71 | 80 | 70 | Krieger | 71 | 79 | 79 | | Lavoine | 73 | 80 | 78 | Colbrelli | 74 | 79 | 75 | | Guillen | 66 | 80 | 80 | Manarelli | 72 | 79 | 79 | | Salleh | 70 | 80 | 80 | Altanzul | 72 | 78 | 75 | | Bertilsson | 73 | 79 | 77 | Boev | 72 | 78 | 78 | | Mezgec | 71 | 79 | 77 |  King | 75 | 78 | 73 | | Reinhardt | 71 | 79 | 84 | Yamamoto | 72 | 78 | 78 | | Coutinho | 72 | 79 | 80 | Cisse | 74 | 78 | 77 | | Selig | 71 | 79 | 81 | | | | |
Here Carlsberg has to be seen as the favourite squad for the flat stages with a solid duo in Kragh Andersen and Bertilsson. Van Heerden could be seen as their most direct rival with also Lavoine or Salleh in the same level of favouritism, right next to the Theo Bos of the Americas, Guillen.
Good luck everyone, see you tomorrow in Mendefera!
Edited by Gustavovskiy on 28-12-2020 19:46
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 27-12-2020 15:17
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Marquez quite high in the favourite's list due to his mountain stat, but I fear his lack of hill capacities will really hurt him. I will be happy with a GC top-10, and hopefully at least one podium spot during a stage. Thanks for the preview and good luck everyone.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 27-12-2020 16:43
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That sprinter field is definitely stronger than what I hoped for... Still, after Reinhardt's performance in Barbados and Mexico, the goal must be at least one stage win and the green jersey.
In terms of GC, our best guess should be Saggiorato (77/73), who isn't even listed above although he should be stronger than some of the other guys up there... Manfredi, Mäder and Thièry are invited to join the breakaway.
If the final stage should be tougher than expected, Pernsteiner might improve quite a bit in the GC, too.
All in all, the mountains aren't our main strength this year, but we should still be able to get some decent depth points - and hopefully some great stage results!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 27-12-2020 16:51
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Apparently I made this a win goal. Every year I think I have it figured out and instead end up questioning what the hell I was thinking a few months ago. 
I have no delusions of winning. A top 5 would be great though, top 10 is a necessity. In theory, the hills should help Warbasse and Fabbro, but it doesn't always work like that.
I'm most worried about AKA obviously with how sprints go. With Bertilsson, he should be the ultra favorite in this field. But I doubt it will work that way. More likely we burn out early or don't even participate. Just have to hope we get lucky. Worst case would be like Tachira, where we send our top GC guys to leadout duty and end up with nothing from the stage.
Thanks for the preview! Excited to be involved after an empty month for us.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 28-12-2020 00:25
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Keough and Kuss both at this race, so pretty much the McCormick first team, for what that is worth. Both clearly in the second tier of favorites so we will count success as Keogh actually contesting a sprint.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 28-12-2020 04:38
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Quite a bit lower on the favourites' list for Keinath than what I was expecting but his stats should suit this race. Bardet too should be able to handle the profile. Didn't expect so many of the best CT sprinters to turn up here though!
Don't expect to get something along the lines of Tachira, but a Top 5 in the GC is the hope.
Thanks for the preview Gustav 
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| aidanvn13 |
Posted on 28-12-2020 06:56
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Win goal for us and will be disappointed with anything less. Once again, the pressure is on Pinot to score as points in races without him are hard to come by. Don't expect much from JvH - more of a wildcard than anything else.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 28-12-2020 08:01
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I'm here to just collect valuable information for when I ineviatably get relegated next season 
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| TinxiaS |
Posted on 28-12-2020 13:51
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Domestique
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I really hope that Salleh and Barbin will have a good day again 
And that Venter can surprise again and collect a couple of KOM points for KOM general standing.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 28-12-2020 16:29
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Hopefully Ndayisenga can make use of his solid hill stat here. Very close field, Top 10 is the minimum expectation, Top 5 would be great. This is also the first race in a while where I have actual expecations for Selig as well. And maybe some breakaway action from our youngsters again. Looking forward to the racing, thanks for the preview!
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 28-12-2020 16:39
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Finally some racing for us again after a quet month. We do have a lot of climbers available here, but no real leader, so not sure how this will work out.
Thanks for the preview! |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-12-2020 20:05
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Fabianski wrote:
In terms of GC, our best guess should be Saggiorato (77/73), who isn't even listed
Fixed. Sorry about that!
AbhishekLFC wrote:
Quite a bit lower on the favourites' list for Keinath than what I was expecting but his stats should suit this race.
Being as lazy a reporter as I am, that table is just a list of who has the bigger MO stat, which everybody knows is always super accurate!
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 28-12-2020 20:25
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Well, Selig with a big ol' Zabel'd here Great to see Redecker working as a leadout, looks like the stage was maybe 100m too long. Third is still decent. Looks like the finish line on the pavement didn't quite match the one the game took, but that's lucky for us I guess.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 28-12-2020 21:06
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Well, while we were rather lucky with the sprint AI in C1/HC races, it was the complete contrary today... The leadout seemed to work well, but apparently it was too early. Quite strange, as Guillén had much worse support stats than Reinhardt, but would probably have won from this situation...
I really hope we'll improve, as Reinhardt should honestly easily beat pretty much all of those who were ahead of him today. Coutinho is a worthy winner, though, congrats! We're still waiting for our first win of the season... And kind of inexplicable what once again happened to AKA - it's really time to improve that stupid sprint AI!
By the way, what happened to Mäder? I had some hopes for him taking minor U25 points, but with him losing 4 minutes today it really already looks like a race to forget for us - even more as we once again didn't even try to get someone into the breakaway. Apparently the boys are thinking we don't need these points...
Thanks for the report anyway, although I'm really p***ed with the results.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 28-12-2020 21:47
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No breakaway appearance and no points from the sprint so not an amazing first stage for the yellow-red chickens. Happy for Guave though! Thanks for the report, G.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 28-12-2020 22:09
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Hopefully I will promote and then AKA can just be one of a bunch of B-C tier sprinters instead of the underwhelming favorite. Another stage with no explanation. I definitely will not not focus my team on sprints ever again, that's for sure.
Hopefully tomorrow we get lucky with the randomness, otherwise we can just look forward to the mountains.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 28-12-2020 22:35
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Stage was a plus for me from the first shot of the sprint which showed Keough actually sprinting. From there 5th was an outcome I can live with. Hopefully he can be consistent.
AKA is a mystery.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-12-2020 22:53
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Indeed. Tried a few thousand times to get the correct shot, but all I could get was that glorious Zabel.
Just checked the replay: he was spent after chasing the whole day at the head of the pack and lost contact around the 10km mark. Sorry for leaving that out.
@ Nemolito: thanks mate!
What do you mean no explanation? The Hotel has assumed its blame already in the food poisoning ordeal. Or was it all a cover up story for something shadier?
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 28-12-2020 23:04
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Fabianski wrote:
That sprinter field is definitely stronger than what I hoped for...
Wondered about that too. So I did a little math and this seems to be real. I think the concern about the value of lead outs led to a lot of second tier sprinters dropping down the divisions resulting in a glut of sprinters available in CT where they can potentially score points. You maybe see the same phenomenon in 79+ sprinters moving to PCT, although I think that is less conclusive.
Sprinters with 77+ in both SP and AC
| 2019 | 2020 | | PT | 47 | 40 | | PCT | 68 | 57 | | CT | 27 | 47 | | A | 8 | 0 | | 150 | 144 |
Sprinters with 79+ in both SP and AC
| 2019 | 2020 | | PT | 24 | 17 | | PCT | 25 | 33 | | CT | 14 | 13 | | A | 0 | 0 | | 63 | 63 |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 28-12-2020 23:18
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Gustavovskiy wrote:
What do you mean no explanation? The Hotel has assumed its blame already in the food poisoning ordeal. Or was it all a cover up story for something shadier?
I do have to give you credit for that one. Unfortunately we seem to be getting food poisoning from far too many hotels these days.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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