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ICL19 - Previews & Statistics
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 10-11-2020 08:14
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World Champion
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A very simple but very correct analysis of our team. The leaders just weren't doing it, especially Van Poppel, while no one of the other riders stepped up to compensate.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 27-11-2024 20:18
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| Shonak |
Posted on 10-11-2020 09:14
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Tour de France Champion
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Thanks for the wrap up, very interesting to read - there were definitely some odd happenings (e.g. Ludvigsson emergence for Alitalia) but overall I think it was quite representative overall.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ripley |
Posted on 10-11-2020 11:56
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
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And here's the scatter chart 2019 for WT and CT, AVG against prestige points. It shows roughly what you can expect from the AVG of the riders. I've put names to a few data points, those to the left of the trend line performed well for their AVG, those on the right less so. Mohoric in a league of his own.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 10-11-2020 12:18
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Small Tour Specialist
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nice to see Declercq somehow highlightening, the eternal domestique irl revenge in icl!
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| Bikex |
Posted on 10-11-2020 13:27
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Team Leader
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That's a really great graphic. Mohoric the only real outlier.
It also shows that riders with AVGs between 74 and 78 tend to do better in CT, maybe the scoring in lower positions in WT races should be increased a little bit?
Also congrats on being the best newly promoted team, didn't expect Aviva to beat Vittel.  |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 10-11-2020 13:38
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
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Not really needing another graph to show how average our season was 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 10-11-2020 14:19
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
Joined: 25-11-2014
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Bikex wrote:
That's a really great graphic. Mohoric the only real outlier.
It also shows that riders with AVGs between 74 and 78 tend to do better in CT, maybe the scoring in lower positions in WT races should be increased a little bit?
Also congrats on being the best newly promoted team, didn't expect Aviva to beat Vittel.
I didn't expect to beat Vittel, either. Obviously, I had a lot of luck.
As for the points scale, I'm not sure it needs changing, but I will say this: I think it's a open secret that riders on a wage between, say, 300 and 400, are seldomly worth their wage in the WT, they don't score well. And partly it is the aggressive points scale. I was thinking that after the Deutschland Tour. Thomas was my captain, for from ideal, but he rode as well as he could for 8 straight days and finished 25th overall. And that's worth 6 points in the end, which might as well be no points in the bigger picture.
And on the other hand you have the points from the KOM ranking, and those are pretty big points and a lot more dependent on simple luck. Like Stannard happened to escape in the Eneco Tour on the only stage which even offered KOM points, he scored the most on that day, boom, 110 points in the bag. You can plan for the GC, and for the green and white jerseys, but you can't plan for the KOM jersey.
But maybe it's for the best, a bit of randomness, a chance for weaker teams to score big...
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| Ripley |
Posted on 12-11-2020 10:31
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
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Since people just love statistics, here are the teams ranked by the ratio of points scored by their best rider. Not quite as "bad" as last season, when Aru and Herklotz scored over 60% of the points for their teams. This time Herklotz scored only 50% of the total points for Bosch, closely followed by Contador and Fenn:
| Team | Top Scorer | Ratio | | Bosch | Herklotz | 0.50 | | Sevilla | Contador | 0.49 | | Cymru Wales | Fenn | 0.49 | | Ceramica | Aru | 0.44 | | Swedbank | Serry | 0.43 | | Specialized | Froome | 0.40 | | CCC | Van Garderen | 0.36 | | Wilier Triestina | Moser | 0.35 | | Cool Runnings | Brenes | 0.35 | | Equinor | Guardini | 0.34 | | Vittel - Havas | Kwiatkowski | 0.33 | | Suntory | Bardet | 0.32 | | PostNL | Geschke | 0.30 | | Santos - Euskadi | Wackermann | 0.30 | | Lufthansa | S. Yates | 0.30 | | Filliers - Mora | Van Keirsbulck | 0.30 | | Shell Pro Cycling | Landa | 0.29 | | Liberty Seguros | Betancur | 0.29 | | SAP - Bianchi | Nizzolo | 0.28 | | Peugeot | Bouhanni | 0.28 | | Italo | Nibali | 0.28 | | KBC Godiva | Henao | 0.27 | | Alitalia | Demare | 0.27 | | Allianz | Barguil | 0.27 | | Pedal Africa | Kudus | 0.26 | | Steelseries CT | Lander | 0.26 | | Credit Suisse | Villella | 0.26 | | CarbonSports | Sagan | 0.25 | | Sugoi | Urán | 0.25 | | Szczecin | Vakoc | 0.25 | | Grupo Argos | Mohoric | 0.24 | | ICBC | Choi | 0.24 | | Aviva | Majka | 0.24 | | Project Cumbria | Edmondson | 0.23 | | VisitUkraine | Kreuziger | 0.22 | | Balkan Cycling | Nerz | 0.22 | | TVM | Mollema | 0.21 | | Fox Sports | Goss | 0.19 | | Brugse Zot | Hofland | 0.18 | | Polestar | Ludvigsson | 0.16 | | Vegeta | Domagalski | 0.15 |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 12-11-2020 11:02
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Small Tour Specialist
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Satisfied by this last stat, the team was built right in this direction, this means that many of our riders didn't fail their role.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 12-11-2020 11:27
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Classics Specialist
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And here's another table for you to study, only WT riders, though. I sorted them into wage bands, next column is the number of riders in the wage band, the third column is the number of riders in the band who managed a Pts/Wage ratio of over 1.0:
| Band | # | > 1.0 | | | Wage | Points | | 100 | 83 | 2 | Ramboud | Suntory | 100 | 110 | | 105-150 | 65 | 4 | Colombini | Italo | 120 | 207 | | 155-200 | 53 | 4 | Arizabal | Sevilla | 200 | 317 | | 205-250 | 48 | 4 | Yifan | Italo | 230 | 320 | | 255-300 | 40 | 2 | Cattenao | Credit | 300 | 579 | | 310-350 | 38 | 6 | Navarro | Liberty | 350 | 585 | | 360-400 | 27 | 4 | Pintzopolous | Italo | 375 | 736 | | 405-500 | 30 | 11 | Tao Hart | Aviva | 410 | 1207 | | 510-600 | 18 | 5 | Ludvigsson | Alitalia | 540 | 1708 | | 615-700 | 16 | 10 | Coquard | Allianz | 625 | 1376 | | 750-1000 | 17 | 12 | Cavendish | Suntory | 875 | 2148 | | 1025-1380 | 12 | 11 | Mohoric | Argos | 1175 | 3265 | | 1400 | 11 | 11 | Contador | Sevilla | 1700 | 1938 |
It's noticable that up to a wage of 400 very few riders score more points than they cost and most miss a 1.0 by a long way. While there is just one rider earning over 1000 who didn't score his wage in points (Boasson Hagen).
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| Shonak |
Posted on 12-11-2020 12:32
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15615
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Thanks Rip. Italo with quite some bang for the bucket. Navarrowith a honorable mention. Bertie worth his wage even after the recent success wave and wage drama.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 12-11-2020 23:56
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Directeur Sportif
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Ripley wrote:
It's noticable that up to a wage of 400 very few riders score more points than they cost and most miss a 1.0 by a long way. While there is just one rider earning over 1000 who didn't score his wage in points (Boasson Hagen).
Which seems to say that that these 1000+ riders are underpaid. Guess I should be planning some steals.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Bikex |
Posted on 13-11-2020 00:12
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
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Yeah it looks like that or it is an indicator that lower tier riders are paid to much which means the min wage should be adjusted to account for that. Or it shows again that the WT scoring system should be updated 
Anyways, happy to see three of my cobbles talents featured here, seems like participating in quite a few CT cobble races paid off. |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 13-11-2020 07:50
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Small Tour Specialist
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imo there's nothing wrong in this, like in irl you build the team around the leader, If you look how many points score for example Roglic and Gesink, you can see this difference if not more!
better domestique = higher salary
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| Ripley |
Posted on 13-11-2020 08:23
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Classics Specialist
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It's true that no matter how scarily much you have to pay a true captain, he nearly always delivers. Though if you look at the points/wage table, the expensive captains aren't the very best deals.
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| Ripley |
Posted on 13-11-2020 09:54
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
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The same wage band table for the CT:
| Band | # | > 1.0 | Name | Team | Wage | Pts | | 100 | 95 | 5 | Konwa | Szczecin | 100 | 156 | | 105-150 | 71 | 4 | Bozic | Vegeta | 140 | 208 | | 155-200 | 56 | 5 | Varro | Vegeta | 190 | 279 | | 210-250 | 47 | 5 | Nur | ICBC | 240 | 598 | | 260-300 | 40 | 8 | Choi | ICBC | 290 | 693 | | 305-350 | 50 | 12 | Geschke | PostNL | 320 | 902 | | 360-400 | 23 | 11 | Chaves | Santos | 380 | 786 | | 410-450 | 14 | 11 | Ospina | Santos | 420 | 1237 | | 460-500 | 9 | 6 | Nizzolo | SAP | 480 | 1545 | | 510-600 | 10 | 7 | Wackermann | Santos | 590 | 1590 | | 650-780 | 7 | 6 | Fenn | Cymru | 750 | 1656 | | 890+ | 6 | 5 | Aru | Ceramica | 1845 | 2533 |
The two riders who did not manage a 1.0 pts/w ratio in the top two brackets are the big talents Spagnoli and Albini who earn too much because of steal attempts. But in the CT most riders earning 400+ manage to score the necessary points. The top bracket is a bit wide: Moser and Rui Costa only barely got past 1.0, Froome and Aru have 1.36 and 1.37, Herklotz 1.51.
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| SSJ2Luigi |
Posted on 17-11-2020 20:49
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World Champion
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LET"S GOOOOOOOOOOO
got predicted like bottom off the table and finish 6th
IN YO FACES 
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| Ripley |
Posted on 10-12-2020 13:07
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3341
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I felt like creating another useless table, so here it is - a messy table so big I had to split it into two: This is the prestige points 2019 scored by all WT riders sorted by their internal team rankings.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | | Grupo | 3265 | 2842 | 1269 | 1129 | 1068 | 912 | 686 | 655 | 564 | 531 | | Italo | 2939 | 1953 | 736 | 730 | 644 | 498 | 384 | 326 | 321 | 320 | | Carbon | 2400 | 2357 | 1211 | 1010 | 526 | 521 | 362 | 275 | 168 | 122 | | Allianz | 2417 | 1713 | 1376 | 1163 | 660 | 364 | 320 | 254 | 239 | 211 | | Suntory | 2461 | 2148 | 565 | 492 | 370 | 339 | 199 | 137 | 111 | 110 | | Lufthansa | 2230 | 2099 | 805 | 727 | 264 | 226 | 153 | 116 | 114 | 103 | | Peugeot | 2081 | 1418 | 1221 | 731 | 294 | 288 | 228 | 180 | 175 | 150 | | Aviva | 1757 | 1207 | 1067 | 486 | 402 | 366 | 290 | 251 | 208 | 194 | | Liberty | 2109 | 2058 | 680 | 585 | 352 | 209 | 147 | 134 | 123 | 105 | | Alitalia | 1934 | 1708 | 1073 | 1008 | 383 | 358 | 134 | 124 | 122 | 113 | | Vittel | 2192 | 1689 | 611 | 325 | 248 | 244 | 225 | 193 | 184 | 143 | | Filliers | 1936 | 1632 | 530 | 446 | 395 | 324 | 215 | 171 | 159 | 136 | | Sevilla | 2938 | 1112 | 317 | 249 | 205 | 187 | 166 | 104 | 102 | 84 | | TVM | 1081 | 908 | 803 | 351 | 251 | 230 | 229 | 205 | 176 | 160 | | Credit | 1277 | 779 | 581 | 579 | 306 | 264 | 264 | 255 | 107 | 103 | | CCC | 1567 | 687 | 482 | 301 | 267 | 222 | 145 | 142 | 139 | 133 | | Sugoi | 1027 | 767 | 565 | 555 | 264 | 156 | 112 | 103 | 93 | 88 | | Ukraine | 736 | 619 | 343 | 307 | 292 | 236 | 189 | 104 | 103 | 69 |
| Team | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | | Grupo | 136 | 117 | 71 | 54 | 47 | 37 | 29 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | | Italo | 303 | 286 | 206 | 200 | 115 | 101 | 96 | 80 | 62 | 55 | 41 | 25 | 23 | 12 | 2 | | Carbon | 121 | 75 | 59 | 52 | 50 | 48 | 45 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 13 | | | Allianz | 131 | 82 | 70 | 58 | 13 | 5 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | Suntory | 102 | 99 | 91 | 90 | 81 | 81 | 62 | 47 | 45 | 26 | 5 | 5 | | | | | Lufthansa | 103 | 99 | 97 | 77 | 68 | 64 | 38 | 32 | 31 | 25 | 10 | 6 | | | | | Peugeot | 118 | 113 | 88 | 78 | 46 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 5 | | | | Aviva | 187 | 157 | 128 | 127 | 120 | 95 | 70 | 60 | 39 | 34 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 16 | | | Liberty | 88 | 83 | 82 | 82 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 66 | 62 | 61 | 46 | 19 | 12 | 10 | | | Alitalia | 88 | 60 | 57 | 52 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 3 | | | | | | | | Vittel | 123 | 111 | 78 | 73 | 39 | 29 | 26 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 1 | | | | | Filliers | 133 | 122 | 97 | 71 | 54 | 46 | 43 | 35 | 7 | 4 | | | | | | | Sevilla | 77 | 62 | 60 | 52 | 51 | 43 | 35 | 34 | 29 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 3 | | | | TVM | 145 | 126 | 116 | 72 | 65 | 64 | 63 | 45 | 35 | 27 | 18 | 15 | 10 | | | | Credit | 94 | 91 | 64 | 35 | 28 | 28 | 22 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 7 | | | | | | CCC | 75 | 53 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 4 | | | | | | | Sugoi | 65 | 53 | 52 | 49 | 38 | 32 | 26 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | Ukraine | 55 | 54 | 54 | 51 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 13 | 6 | | |
Grupo Argos dominates the top 10 table, except for Allianz's 3rd and 4th best scorers who did better than the Argos counterparts. Outside the top 10 Italo moves to the front until Liberty Seguros and Aviva score their "victories".
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| Bikex |
Posted on 12-12-2020 15:05
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Cool statistics thanks Ripley. Shows how dominant Argos really were. Their 10th best finisher still got more points than the 6th best of all other teams. |
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