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Paris Tours Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 02-07-2020 00:56
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Team Manager
Posts: 6546
Joined: 14-09-2008
PCM$: 1290.00
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 Paris Tours
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Preview
After many years as a conti race, the tradition-rich sprint classic is back where it started 12 years ago: in the Pro Tour, as a PTHC race even. With that come a lot of world-class riders and higher stakes as we’re slowly coming closer to the end of the season and points become ever more valuable in the fights for top ranking positions and against relegation.
The profile is rather unspectacular, with a few short ascents here and there but always followed by a longer downhill and/or flat stretch, giving ample opportunity to recover. It’s a long race at 234 kilometers, but all in all, a pretty straightforward one - or so it seems. Because it’s worth mentioning that two of the last three editions have been won by riders attacking the peloton late, evidence that the two hills towards the end have the potential to throw the sprinters and their teams for a loop after a long day in the saddle. The first is just 500 meters short but up to 7% steep, the second one goes on for around 1.5 kilometers, also reaches up to 7% and its peak is only a little over 7 kilometers from the finish line. Let’s keep that in mind when we look at the favorites:
| FL | SP | AC | ST | RS | HI |  Van Stayen | 76 | 84 | 78 | 76 | 71 | 79 |  Coquard | 73 | 84 | 83 | 71 | 74 | 66 |  Kristoff | 75 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 68 |  Kump | 74 | 81 | 80 | 76 | 73 | 77 |  Guarnieri | 76 | 82 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 66 |
To try and give a bit more context than just the pure sprint stat, I’ve sorted the many, many strong sprinters here into different tiers, estimating their likelihood of success here - but take it with a grain of salt, obviously.
Michael Van Stayen might be the top favorite for this race. Not only has he one of the highest bursts of pure speed, but he’s also an excellent rouleur, has great stamina and is an elite puncheur. The only thing holding him back a bit is his acceleration and, to a lesser extent, his resistance.
Bryan Coquard has a leg up on the Belgian in both those categories and he’s the single fastest sprinter here. His stamina and straight flat skills are a bit lackluster in comparison to some of the other riders here, though. It might also be noteworthy that Festina has given its #1 to Adrien Petit, who we’ll get to later, so maybe the leadership role could be a bit contentious.
Alexander Kristoff is almost a copy of Van Stayen - except just a tiny step below him and without his great uphill abilities. Still, this makes him a big threat. Marko Kump and Jacopo Guarnieri can’t match the pure speed of the aforementioned three, but bring other qualities to the table. Kump is almost as good a puncheur as Van Stayen and equiped with similar secondary stats, while the latter are where Guarnieri fully shines, with the best resistance stat of any sprinter and good rouleur skills as well. He also proved he can compete here when he finished second last year, albeit in a weaker field.
| FL | SP | AC | ST | RS | HI |  Lo Cicero | 72 | 84 | 78 | 71 | 63 | 64 |  Maksimov | 72 | 81 | 84 | 70 | 69 | 60 |  Howard | 76 | 82 | 79 | 75 | 70 | 68 |  Saber | 75 | 81 | 79 | 74 | 72 | 68 |  Van der Lijke | 73 | 82 | 79 | 73 | 71 | 76 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 71 |  Rowe | 78 | 79 | 80 | 76 | 70 | 66 |  Silvestre | 78 | 80 | 81 | 70 | 71 | 67 |
The riders in this tier have a slight weakness here and there but enough quality elsewhere to potentially compensate. Perfect example: Ivano Lo Cicero and Roman Maksimov, who have absolute Tier I speed and acceleration but severely lack resistance and struggle on the hills. This makes them some of the most volatile riders, with big boom or bust potential.
Possibly the safest bet in this tier is Leigh Howard, who’s just a really good rider all around. The same is true for Lacen Saber and Tom Van Asbroeck, although to a slightly lesser degree.
Nick Van der Lijke is a good choice if you expect the hills in the final kilometers to make a bigger impact, as he can almost rival Van Stayen and Kump in that regard - and he’s also very fast. Fabio Silvestre and Luke Rowe lack that absolute top speed, but they’re the best flat powerhouses of the sprinters and especially the latter also has great stamina which in theory should allow him to play a good role in the finale.
| FL | SP | AC | ST | RS | HI |  Enger | 73 | 81 | 78 | 71 | 73 | 69 |  Manninen | 74 | 80 | 80 | 71 | 75 | 66 |  Kemboi | 78 | 79 | 80 | 74 | 77 | 63 |  Samolenkov | 74 | 80 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 64 |  Reinhardt | 71 | 79 | 84 | 73 | 66 | 67 |  Salleh | 70 | 80 | 80 | 73 | 65 | 59 |  Ulanowski | 73 | 80 | 77 | 71 | 66 | 58 |  Scully | 74 | 79 | 80 | 66 | 70 | 67 |  Contreras | 72 | 78 | 80 | 73 | 75 | 68 |
Here we have the riders whose success is much less guaranteed. Sondre Holst Enger and Matti Manninen (6th in 2018) might be the most complete riders here alongside Salem Kemboi and Artem Samolenkov, but others in this tier have a shot at a good result with a great day as well.
Top Lieutenants (or more …) | FL | SP | AC | ST | RS | HI | | Petit | 76 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 72 | 65 | | Van der Sande | 75 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 73 | 70 | | Lander | 77 | 79 | 77 | 77 | 72 | 69 | | Coutinho | 72 | 79 | 80 | 75 | 74 | 65 | | Santos | 76 | 78 | 78 | 71 | 72 | 68 | | Van Heerden | 72 | 81 | 72 | 73 | 66 | 67 | | Meyer | 72 | 80 | 76 | 70 | 65 | 62 | | Serebriakov | 74 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 67 | 61 | | Havik | 73 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 68 | 64 | | Te Brake | 75 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 64 | | Wippert | 70 | 78 | 82 | 75 | 70 | 67 | | Kreder | 73 | 78 | 80 | 72 | 68 | 70 | | Matthews | 76 | 79 | 79 | 72 | 67 | 65 |
The first four to five riders are most noteworthy here. Firstly, Adrien Petit as a) the strongest of this bunch and b) as mentioned earlier potentially Festina’s Co-Leader next to Coquard, if the startlist is any indication, or at least should the latter struggle late in the race.
All four of Van der Sande, Lander, Coutinho (who finished 7th here last year) and Santos also might have a shot at team leadership, as they’re very close in skill to their respective leaders.
The other riders seem less likely to make an impact, but I wanted to highlight some of the top leadouts on the one hand, and the “throw everything against the wall and see what sticks”-approach of teams like Tinkoff and Philips, who come here with a big array of strong sprinters.
| FL | FI | ST | RS | SP | AC |  Wisniowski | 80 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 76 | | Ji | 80 | 69 | 77 | 70 | 67 | 75 | | Stoltz | 80 | 85 | 76 | 79 | 62 | 74 | | Andersen | 79 | 72 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 72 | | Kneisky | 79 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 67 | 71 |  Fiedler | 79 | 67 | 75 | 76 | 66 | 63 | | Katrasnik | 79 | 79 | 71 | 75 | 62 | 70 | | Dzamastagic | 78 | 78 | 76 | 72 | 76 | 78 | | Oss | 78 | 65 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 74 | | Vanbilsen | 78 | 72 | 80 | 74 | 72 | 71 | | Van der Haar | 77 | 76 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 70 | | Wohler | 77 | 80 | 72 | 71 | 71 | 72 |
We also have a bunch of great rouleurs present who could try to snatch the win from the sprinters - in fact, one of them has done so here already: Morgan Kneisky has won this race two years ago with a late attack.
This list could also be a lot longer, but I had to make a cut at some point. Mark Dzamastagic deserves a mention as the rider with the biggest acceleration, Yannik Stoltz for the greatest fighting spirit - both also form the core of a very good support squad for Van Stayen -, but this part of the race is simply too unpredicable to make any legitimate predictions.
Finally, here’s the full startlist:
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 02-07-2020 01:44
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4616
Joined: 05-10-2010
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Complete roll of the dice race here with so many top and mid sprinters. Probably suited to a more all-round sprinter with good backups as the end will get a bit hairy; as such I think this tier list does a pretty good job of breaking it up.
We’ve got all bases covered with Kristoff and strong roulers Ji and GVA for a late move, really excited to see how this plays out!
Thanks for the wonderful preview.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 02-07-2020 02:13
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World Champion
Posts: 11621
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Very keen to see what Rowe and Debesay can do, expecting an attack from at least one to put their flat stats to use, they both have done it before this year. If an attack works it could be a sweet sweet race for us! Otherwise I suppose hope for the outside shot at a top 10 with Rowe 
Thanks for a comprehensive preview cunego, looking forward to what should hopefully be an eventful report 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 02-07-2020 05:44
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 12681
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If we could've thrown the entire wall, we would have
We were expecting a tough startlist, and that's exactly what we've got. Hoping for Saber to match his place in the favourite's list at least. That would be a decent outing. Hoping that our 'wall-stickers' can grow some spiderman powers and get some depth points out of this race for a change.
Thanks for the preview cunego
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 21:34
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 02-07-2020 08:29
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2130
Joined: 11-07-2010
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This is where we have our win goal, so we got to aim for the victory, but it will be very tough with this startlist. Guarnieri's secondary stats should give him an edge, but Van Stayen, Kump and Van der Lijke will undoubtably handle the hill in the final better. Van der Haar is an option for a late attack, but I think our chances are best in a mass sprint.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 02-07-2020 08:56
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15025
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Van Asbroeck a bit outmatched here (I don't remember Kump being that good back in the PCT ), let's hope Vanbilsen tries something!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-07-2020 09:13
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
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3 star favorite = bad result... Let's get this over with.
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| redordead |
Posted on 02-07-2020 10:13
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Team Leader
Posts: 5511
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Go Kump!!
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 02-07-2020 10:58
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Come on Kump, this is finally your time to shine. He's having the World Champions slump so far, but I want to see him performing here. Go Marko!
Also rooting for van Staeyen, time to leave relegation danger behind for Evonik.
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| jph27 |
Posted on 02-07-2020 10:59
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Team Leader
Posts: 7374
Joined: 20-03-2010
PCM$: 900.00
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In theory this is the perfect race for Van der Sande and Lander, and a pretty good one for Kemboi. However considering the strength of the field I expect them to struggle - positioning over the late hills will be important, and I doubt PCM will place them near the front. |
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| ember |
Posted on 02-07-2020 13:41
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Team Leader
Posts: 7058
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Not sure if a sprint or a late attack is the logical result here. Fingers crossed for Oss either way, as I suspect Scully will struggle on the small hills. A breakaway appearance would also be cool, as we can't really expect any result here, be it a sprint or a late attack.
Thank you for a nice preview, cunego59!
If it comes down to a sprint, MVS must be the favourite, but I must say I also fancy Wisniowski to pull of a trademark Wisniowski move. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 02-07-2020 14:32
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
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In theory my team should be super strong here. Its almost entirely composed of fantastic rouleurs. Van stayen should be one of the quickest after those few small speedbumps in the final and Dzama/Eislers/Blythe is a strong leadout on a route like this.
Riesebeek, Nooytens, Becis and especially Stoltz should also be very valuable in navigating through the final by either pacing hard or maybe even joining attacks themselves as they all share fantastic FL-sta-Res combos and can survive bumps decently as well.
Between this and Moscow where Ill have the exact same lineup i expect one great and one solid result.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 02-07-2020 21:07
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
Joined: 20-04-2008
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Another PTHC race with no Gazelle on the startlist. But we don't have any sprinters so it'd have been a waste of travel money anyway.
That bump near the finish looks pretty nasty, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's MVS, Kump or vd Lijke winning.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 02-07-2020 23:32
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Classics Specialist
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We've brought pretty much every good flat rider in the squad. Hopefully they can try something towards the end. Always expecting a late attack from Wisniowski and it's a good race to try and stay away. Would be cool if Pedersen could do a good sprint also.
Van Stayen for the win.
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-07-2020 08:29
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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SotD wrote:
3 star favorite = bad result... Let's get this over with.
*Slow clap* Great job guys - Great job *Slow clap*
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| jph27 |
Posted on 03-07-2020 09:12
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Team Leader
Posts: 7374
Joined: 20-03-2010
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Send three 79 Sprint sprinters with 78, 77 and 75 Flat respectively. Score only two points because they're poorly positioned in spite of their flat stats. Sums up our season really.
Thanks for the report cunego! |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-07-2020 09:29
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World Champion
Posts: 11621
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MVS 
Would have liked us to show some initiative but 10th is not bad in a straight sprint from Rowe, keeping some points ticking over in our top 10 fight. Thanks for the report cunego!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
1x x1
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-07-2020 09:31
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
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So glad to see this big win. Very messy final that didnt make a lot of sense but i cant be mad about that considering that i drew the lucky lottery ticket.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 03-07-2020 09:42
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Directeur Sportif
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Howard f**cked up the positioning like some others, but luckily recovered well from this and delivers a solid 5th place eventually. Which is exactly, what I was hoping for. Overall a good race for Bennelong, with Oram showing himself in the breakaway and Wohler adding a low Top-20 to Howard's good result. Funny though, that we need to scroll way down to find the third best Bennelong rider.
Thanks for the quality report and congrats to those, who did well.. Some favorites with the expected failure though.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 03-07-2020 10:00
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Fuck me sideways.
Thanks for the great report and congrats to knockout for a huge win though |
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