The cobblers.
Needless to say that I set ranks looking at COB skill. I gave good consideration to FL and STA either, HIL and RES were also important for many decisions.
About the Team there's a clear situation where there are 3 of the 6 best northern specialist in the same team (and the fourth right behind), while in the other best cases there are a couple of good ones. Some teams don't even line up any potential leader. I gave 2 stars to those who can race with at least 2 good riders/3 decent ones. 1 star for both who has just a leader or not at all.
Versatility bonus is given to the team who can boast a cobbler with good SP. A real powerful gun when the race is decided in reduced bunch, that's quite a frequent scenario in many northern classics.
The last one regarding fast wheels, I didn't think I was able to post everything tonight, but that's it!
Here again the main stats are two, but this time I considered them more in a close fight, let say 60/40 for SP/ACC, then, in order of importance I considered FL>RES>STA.
In the team ranking, not everytime more good sprinter you have more stars you get. Focus points were: Quality and number of domestiques with high FL skill; presence of a good leadout man with decent SP/ACC plus good FL/RES; possibility to bring more sprinters in clashing races at the same time without weakening too much the team around first leader.
Not every race/stage decided by a bunch sprint is flat like a wooden board, so I decided to reward with a versatility bonus star the teams who have a sprinter with a good HIL skill, that can be weighty in saving energies for the last km or even to don't get dropped if the race turn harder.
Now, that's all. Do you agree with these classifications?
As I said, feel free to ask me if you want explanations on my decision in single cases, or if you want deepening something about these tables!
My next goal is to understand how much a category is heavier than another in terms of final ranking, to draw up a prediction to compare with others done so far.
Very very cool approach imo. I remember doing quite a similar measurement for my Man-Game CT preview, not giving stars but using a qualitative method as well and the quantifying it.
I think this one is very comprehensive. However one thing I would criticize is the relatively weak influence of the sprint stat on the cobbles rating. I think sprint as part of the main assessment and then acceleration as the "extra" stat would've been my preferred way of going.
Other than that a very cool preview & presentation, I like the method and the results. I can't wait for the final outcome and the predictions according to that
Great work, df! Maybe just merge the tables into one and you could drop the bonus versatility column - or include the info without an extra column, using a different colour or something.
My next goal is to understand how much a category is heavier than another in terms of final ranking
Well, that's tough, especially for the CT. With good planning you can play to your strengths and hide your weaknesses. Generally I'd probably say MON > HIL > SPR > COB > TTR, the latter two don't have that many races available. But look at TT specialist Tony Martin who was only beaten by Herklotz last season. With a rider that good Vittel made the right choice of having him compete in several WT races, so even he had a calendar full of races which suited him.
The "safest" way of going about it would be to reward strength in several categories. 2 is better than 1, 3 is better than 2. (Not sure if 4 is better than 3 and all five even better, because of the number of races available. Having, say, two captains each for MON and SPR is fine.)
Very cool preview. Why do CT get all the previews though? ;( I think sprint could be a good bonus rating for hill tbh and might be actually more important than time trials. Looking forward to the overalll CT rating.
As a side note, Aru and Barguil will obliterate the WT classics this year.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Thanks you all for the feedback, and for the criticism, as I want to refine the method for the future
@Croatia: Yeah, my first aim was absolutely to make a table that was easy to read from the first impact, so you can't feel it boring and captures curiosity and attention, also to entice to read all of them.
There are obviously some weak points like most of methods that put on paper something that isn't a math: first of all the calendar planning, that surely influence the chance to score points based on how is well/bad planned.
Another point is that i never played PCM15, and I'm very used to PCM17 with the new MO/HIL system, and I know quite well how other stats work, but not sure on how was it in '15.
I also took just a single stat on versatility bonus to make it easy, and not with so long tables, but I recognize that in many cases there are more than one skill very influental that can bring big advantages in sundry kinds of races.
In the specific case, I would say that for the way I have in my mind to use this stars for the final ranking maybe the SP as bonus star is heavier than just consider it in the first assessment, that's much linked to the COB stat (I used other stats just to assign borderline cases, when I found too many riders have same COB stat, I used secondary skills to separate classes. In other point of view, a superfast 75 COB will never be same as a very slow 77 COB, for this table I rewarded more the 77 slow one). My thought started thinking for example to Gent-Wevelgem, but actually ACC can be very important in races where riders are drained to the finish line, and if you can exploit your little energy left, keeping in front of others during the sprint, can be crucial.
@Ripley: my first idea was to merge them, but it was too long and it moved the whole web page ahaha.
I don't like easy things , so for the final ranking, I was thinking to give every stat a factor number, that's based on how many races are supposedly reserved for that skill, and then apply it to the stars number. In the end I should have a weighted value.
But again this is much influenced on the calendar planning...so, let's se in the end of the season how much this is accurate!
@Shonak: Maybe CT managers are atm more active than WT ones, it's actualy quite curious that there are many more CT preview compared to WT ones.
The choice between SP and TT was very close. In the end I considered also that using ACC in the allocation process, I somehow already favoured fast riders (ACC was very important beside HIL stat to get stars in firs valutation), and since you can't consider TT at all for this category, I rewarded the best allrounders. It was a choice, let see in the end if it was worth.
I figured out that more or less MO and HIL might give same amount of points, due to many hilly classics that should cover the big points from GT and other tours. SP is about 80/85% compared to first two skills. TT and COB are below the half way, but quite similar. TT isn't so low because of many points that can bring in tours with prologues and where there are not many difficulies, consequently wearing leader jersey. There are also few races totally dedicated.
Hope tomorrow to be able (have time) to finish the job.
ok, I gave a look at every stage of the calendar so I made a count on how many of them should reward points to each skill (I tried to take in account also secondary classifications and single stage bonus points). At the end of this process I setted a weighted numeric value to each stat, but in the end due to approximations I found two couple of same valors.
I multiplied the total number of stars of each category to his related factor, that were:
MO -> 10
HIL -> 10
TT -> 4,5
COB -> 4,5
SP -> 8,5
After that I did the sum of all 5 absolute valors, and this is the results:
Nice work, df! Maybe you could have included another column showing the strength(s) of each team. Here's the updated comparison of the CT predictions, this time I sorted the teams alphabetically:
C14
df_T
WAVG
Balkan Cycling Project
2
2
2
Bosch Cycling Team
13
10
10
Brugse Zot - Trek
8
18
18
Ceramica Panaria
1
1
1
Cool Runnings
23
23
23
Equinor Pro Cycling
6
6
4
Fox Sports
10
9
12
ICBC Cycling Team
22
22
22
KBC Godiva
5
3
5
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka
20
17
15
Polestar ProCycling
9
7
14
PostNL
17
19
21
Project Cumbria
18
20
16
Santos - Euskadi
7
8
6
SAP - Bianchi
3
4
8
Shell Pro Cycling
11
13
3
Specialized - Sony
12
11
11
Steelseries CT
16
15
13
Swedbank - PEAB
15
14
17
Szczecin - Zentiva
21
21
20
Team Cymru Wales
19
16
9
Vegeta Cycling Team
14
12
19
Wilier Triestina
4
5
7
All agree about the two top and two bottom teams. Though going by last season we're all going to be wrong about ICBC. No love for Shell from croatia and df, that's going to bite them in the ass. Though certainly my WAVG is too kind to them and probably too unkind to Polestar. But of course we can't know how things will play out, Polestar doesn't have a certain big scorer and has to count on its depth, while Shell can't afford bad races from their top 4. As for df's team Brugse Zot, croatia is probably too generous considering the rather narrow focus, on the other hand, CT cobbles have so little competition that the team can score big and easily beat the other two predictions.
Two 5ths and a 3rd for KBC, Will be very happy if any of those are right. Might need to dial up Willie McRettin and see how he is taking the pressure of being picked top 5.
So we were able to catch up with an KBC-Godiva Manager Willie McRettin in Libreville, where he is still at the Radisson Blu Okoume Palace Hotel. Unfortunately McRettin seemed unusually agitated and the interview got cut off, so what follows is brief and may be offensive to some.
CN: Willie, have you had a chance to catch up with the ICL CT projections that have been released.
McRettin: Of course I have. What else I am going to do while I wait for the season? Claude at the hotel here makes a fantastic Pina Colada but a man can only sit pool side shotgunning pineapple juice and rum for so long.
CN: The consensus seems to make KBC-Godiva a candidate for top 5 finish, do you see that as a complement or just pressure?
McRettin: It doesn't effect me because obviously the people writing those pieces don't have a feckin clue. If we are top 5 then my Aunt Mary's the pope. I watched all of that lad Croatia's preview and he is a genius with that filter thing but hasn't got the first feckin' clue about cycling. Trek had me seeing stars. And Ripley needs to get his head out of his ass. Thinks you can do a bunch of math and predict the outcome of a cycling race. Lad wouldn't know where to find the pedals if I sat him on a bike. Is he a Kiwi? He's the Kiwi isn't he?
CN: The interview unfortunately got interrupted after that. McRettin did contact us later and offer to share his written team summaries, which he argued are a more accurate assessment of the CT division. They are transcribed below.
Spoiler
Balkan Cycling Project -Costa, Spilak, Nerz all fantastic.
Bosch Cycling Team -Herklotz. Feck.
Brugse Zot - Trek -Don't want to think about them, here I am trying to keep my Belgian sponsor happy and then they go out and sign all these great, big Belgian lads and I look like a pratt.
Ceramica Panaria -Who the feck let fecking Fabio Aru in the feckin CT.
Cool Runnings -Mark my words Walter Salmon is going to take to the peloton like a fish. The next superstar. The Merckx of Antigua.
Equinor Pro Cycling -Guardini and Bennett, fecking great.
Fox Sports -Lot of Kiwis but Stybar is a rider I dream about signing. Big lad, great on the cobbles, sponsor would love him.
ICBC Cycling Team -Never heard of any of them but sure they will be a lot better than us
KBC Godiva -Henao is old, Ciolek is older, Vanbilsen is too slow to win a sprint sprint and too soft to win on the cobbles. Benoot is the perfect rider for finishing 15th in every race. McMullen is too young, Melnik might be the Bulgarian Betancour but is barely out of diapers and Dieu was a bartender at Le Cercuiel six months ago. All great lads but I must hae been drinking when I signed them.
Pedal Africa for Qhubeka -Love their mountain squad. Great, Fantastic.
Polestar ProCycling -Fredrik Ludvigsson, he is going to teach McMullen some lessons on the TT bikes in the year to come. Fantastic rider, fantastic team.
PostNL -Lars Boom, wish I had him, great name. Forgot to look at the rest of the roster.
Project Cumbria -Know a lot of the lads on Cumbria, all great riders despite being English, particularly like McNally.
Santos - Euskadi -Would be a lot better if they had kept Majka but still going to make us eat their bloody dust. Albini's a nice young rider, might have to make run at him in the offseason
SAP - Bianchi -Thought they were pretty poor but realized I had dropped half my notes. The half with Nizzolo and De Gendt. Nizzolo is just great, Ciolek wishes he was Nizzolo.
Shell Pro Cycling -Blythe, great lad, Atapuma, just a king, Landa, another king. And some of those prediction fellows think they will finish 13th. Fecking Idiots. Ripley got this one right, proving even a blind squirrel can find an acorn every now and again.
Specialized - Sony -Chris Bleeding Froome. See Aru.
Steelseries CT -Did lose my notes on them. Sure they are fantastic.
Swedbank - PEAB -Fabian Cancelllara, what a legend. Big fan of Thor Tønnesen, think he was the other bartender at Le Cercueil the night I signed Dieu.
Szczecin - Zentiva -Lots of great Czech lads, our sponsors really wanted Vakoc. I have nightmares about Hans from the bank calling me and telling me I am fired because I didn't sign Vakoc. Fantastic lad.
Team Cymru Wales -Are they going to let anyone else get a podium in a sprint? Feck.
Vegeta Cycling Team -They are team #1 for a reason.
Wilier Triestina -Angel Madrazo - didn't he just win the Tour? Now he is racing against us. Feck.
A surprisingly complimentary assessment of the CT from McRettin, though of course he has his pessimistic reasons for being so, but as the real Kiwi I am sensing a lot of hostility
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
again, click on the ICL-logo for the preview of your favorite PCM YouTuber
This time I took on WT-Teams. I tried to keep it shorter this time. It didn't work also don't hesitate to smash me fore my comments, something I've missed or something I overhyped/undervalued. Hope you're enjoying it again.
Spoiler
also added some quicklinks to all the previews in the first post
Fine work, croatia! (And yes, we have the ToNE in the ICL.) Let's compare the predictions:
C14
W9
Allianz - BMW Cycling Team
2
2
Aviva Cycling Team
13
11
CarbonSports - Lightweight
1
4
CCC Sprandi Polkowice
15
15
Credit Suisse
17
17
Équipe Cycliste Peugeot
6
3
Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team
7
8
Grupo Argos - Quala
3
1
Italo
5
5
Liberty Seguros
4
13
Lufthansa
12
12
Sevilla Cycling Team
14
14
Sugoi - Xanterra
18
18
Suntory Lucozade Sport
10
9
Team Alitalia
9
6
TVM Cycling Team
8
10
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
16
16
Vittel - Havas Communications
11
7
Croatia and my WAVG9 are very similar, identical even for 8 of 18 teams. It makes me feel rather clever about my formula, took me 5 minutes to crunch the numbers, no need to look at individual riders, team depth beyond the top 9, etc, and yet not far off from the expert opinion of the distinguished Mr. C.
There is one glaring difference, Liberty Seguros. I wrote in my own preview I'm unhappy about how low my formula places the team, but we'll see if it's really that far off. Personally I think both are a bit wrong about Sevilla, maybe Contador won't score quite as well as last season, but still...
Well we had a good season last year but have lost Domont and Fernandez by wanting to get a bit more versatile. Obviously we have failed at securing a decent sprinter but at least the young guys have plenty of race days to throw around so I hope we get the odd Top 10 now and then from them. I considered last year a bit more a transition year but as it turns out we performed really well in WT, I think coming in 4th evenutally. Other have gotten much better in the meantime and we didn't get any better, so I think this year is more the transition year with hopefully some (more) stand out performances by Herrada, Bananito and VDP until VDP and Pulido will become proper leaders and we may finally get around to hiring a decent sprinter one of these days.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Funny as I actively tried to forget everything you had in your preview and only knew that you had me first but I guess it's a pretty good sign to have us close by each other in the sense of prediction value.
Great videos Croatia. Really helped to engage with the teams after the long break.
Liked the live format and didn't feel it was too long at all, kept my interest. I liked your analysis of riders within the squad and the planning challenges they throw up. As a native English speaker I had no problem following so no worries there
As ICL races are reported using video, a video review was somehow appropriate.
P.S. Your review of Suntory was spot on - only forgot to mention stupidly overpaying for talents
Ripley wrote:
It makes me feel rather clever about my formula,
"Och aye, you cannae reduce the greatest sport the world have ever known to arithmetic, its about suffering and pain and dirt and rain and wind and sweat and more dirt," Willie McRettin
, so for the final ranking, I was thinking to give every stat a factor number, that's based on how many races are supposedly reserved for that skill, and then apply it to the stars number. In the end I should have a weighted value.
