Ladies and Gentlemen, it is time: The Tour de France, the biggest race on earth, the pinnacle of cycling, three full weeks of nothing but high quality, high intensity racing lie ahead of us. With the entire podium of last year’s edition not competing this time around, the door is wide open for new faces on the steps in Paris. Who could that be, and what do they have to go through to get there? Well, let’s take a look, shall we? This is the Tour de France 2019:
Week One
To start the race, the sprinters will get the opportunity to have their day in yellow. The course that starts and ends in the Belgian capital of Bruxelles has two category 4 climbs that will also have breakaway riders fighting for the first polkadot jersey.
We continue with three stages that end flat-ish after some hills, although each with decidedly different characteristics: After crossing the border into France, the peloton sees a quick succession of nasty short ascents just before the finish with a short but steep ramp in Épernay on day two, then a more regular flat stage with one small climb towards the end before the riders end up in the first more serious climbs as they hit the Vosges on their way to Colmar.
Cholet is the location of the team time trial on day five, an early shakeup for the GC before we have the first mountain top finish with the traditional climb up to La Planche des Belles Filles. The week concludes with a long, but otherwise pretty straightforward flat stage.
Week Two
The second week has the riders moving through the Massif Central over hilly terrain that should suit the puncheurs and could also provide some opportunity for breakaways. After another day for the sprinters that ends in Toulouse, we’re finally in the Pyrenees.
Stage 12 challenges the peloton with a brutal duo of the Col de Peyresourde and La Hourquette d'Ancizan, two steep category 1 climbs. It ends in a long descent, though, which makes this a classical “the Tour won’t be won here, but it can be lost” scenario. The only individual time trial of the race is followed by a mountain top finish at the legendary Col du Tourmalet at the end of just 121 kilometers.
Week Three
Week three begins with the final stage of the Pyrenees, a tough 191 kilometers over three summits with to the finish in Foix Prat d’Albis. Then it’s time for the sprinters once again, their last shot before the Alps and Paris. Stage 17 makes the transition to the Alps on a textbook breakaway day before the final three mountain stages will decide the GC.
The first graces us with both the Col d’Izoard and the Col du Galibier on the way to Valloire - not a mountain top finish, but this could still be a very selective stage. The Col de l’Iseran is the main difficulty of the following stage as the riders make their way towards the shorter climb up to Tignes. The final challenge and the final opportunity for GC contenders to duel it out is the climb to Val Thorens at the end of a crisp 125 kilometers before the teams board their planes to Paris.
In total, this gives us 7 stages classified as flat, 5 hilly stages, 7 mountain stages of which 5 end with a mountain top finish, and 1 ITT and 1 TTT. A nice and balanced route!
Before we go through the riders of this year, let’s remind ourselves of the winners of the past …
Year
1st
2nd
3rd
2018
Taaramäe
Spilak
Gesink
2017
Spilak
Phinney
Gesink
2016
A.Schleck
Taaramäe
Spilak
2015
Pluchkin
Taaramäe
Amador
2014
A.Schleck
Pluchkin
Spilak
2013
Madrazo
Cunego
A.Schleck
2012
Cunego
Madrazo
Pluchkin
2011
Spilak
Dekker
Popovych
2010
Fothen
Devolder
Spilak
2009
Devolder
F.Schleck
Gadret
2008
F.Schleck
Di Luca
Valverde
2007
Moreau
Vinokourov
Leipheimer
… and the Top 10 of last year:
1
Rein Taaramäe
T-Mobile
82h19'39
2
Simon Spilak
Isostar - Slovenija
+ 52
3
Robert Gesink
Berg Cycles
+ 9'58
4
Romain Sicard
Air France - KLM
+ 10'02
5
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
Festina - Dexia
+ 13'16
6
Fredrik Strand Galta
Aker - MOT
+ 22'49
7
Warren Barguil
Moser - Sygic
+ 24'13
8
Tim Wellens
Volvo acc. by Spotify
+ 25'24
9
Benat Intxausti
Porto - Prio
+ 27'18
10
Thomas Dekker
Aegon - Lavazza
+ 31'52
The Contenders
Angel Madrazo Gazelle
Angel Madrazo winning stage 19 of the 2013 Tour de France, securing his overall victory.
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
'14
'13
'12
'11
Stage Wins
Jerseys
Giro
3.
2.
3.
2.
5
Tour
5.
1.
2.
28.
3
Vuelta
3.
4.
1.
16.
8
2019 Results
Tour of East Java
Pro Hallstatt Classic
GP Liechtenstein
Dauphiné
2.
2.
5.
3.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
68
85
76
77
81
80
81
55
63
72
66
69
77
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Karnulin
78
74
76
75
77
Vervaeke
76
73
76
77
78
Kangert
75
77
76
75
75
Konrad
75
76
76
73
72
It's hard to look past Angel Madrazo as the top favorite for this year's Tour de France. The Spaniard is an accomplished Grand Tour rider: Since 2012, he's finished 10 Grand Tours and podiumed 8 of them! His last GC victory, which makes him one of only two previous Tour winners in this peloton, dates back to 2013, though - but with the likes of Rein Taaramäe, Simon Spilak or Alexandr Pliuchkin not present, this might be the year for him to return to the top step!
He is the single best climber in this race and his combination of Stamina, Resistance and Recovery is unmatched. He is one of the better puncheurs among the contenders and his time trialing is only bested by Taylor Phinney. And to top it off, he has strong team support both in the mountains and the team time trial. He showed signs of weakness on the first mountain stage of the Dauphiné, but a dominant stage win to end the race has him right back at the top of the list. Angel Madrazo is the man to beat - so, who's going to try to do just that?
Lachlan Morton Bennelong - Mitchelton
Lachlan Morton finishes third in this year's GP Liechtenstein ahead of Lecuisinier.
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
Jerseys
Giro
5.
3.
Tour
15.
Vuelta
21.
2019 Results
Badaling
Tirreno-Adriatico
Pro Hallstatt Classic
GP Liechtenstein
Dauphiné
12.
6.
5.
3.
2.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
70
84
76
73
79
78
78
54
57
67
68
68
73
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Smith
78
75
72
74
75
Dyball
76
73
75
71
72
Canty
75
73
71
71
73
Roe
75
73
71
69
72
Lachlan Morton earns the spot as top challenger by virtue of being the only rider to beat Madrazo not once but twice this season, with a third place in Liechtenstein and most recently a second place at the Dauphiné. His Grand Tour palmares is not the strongest, but a third place at the Giro two years ago, accompanied by the U25 jersey, is a good foundation to build upon. His best result in France was a 15th place - expect that to have changed by the end of this race.
Morton is an elite climber and he has good-to-great secondary stats to back it up. He’s not the greatest time trialist, but only 25 individual TT kilometers will be to his liking this year. His biggest flaw is his lack of acceleration, but it hasn’t held him back a lot so far this year. Bennelong supports him decently well - the ceiling is very high for the Australian.
Romain Sicard Air France - KLM
Romain Sicard wins his second mountain stage in the yellow jersey at the Dauphiné, ahead of Morton and Madrazo!
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
'14
'13
Giro
8.
Tour
4.
9.
5.
9.
8.
Vuelta
2019 Results
Paris - Nice
Pro Hallstatt Classic
GP Liechtenstein
Dauphiné
1.
6.
7.
1.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
73
82
78
76
80
79
82
57
64
70
77
65
76
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Salinas
77
73
74
74
70
Rosch
77
72
70
74
72
Koch
77
73
69
74
74
Romain Sicard is one of two main contenders who has not been on a Grand Tour podium. As such, he was one of the tragic figures of last year's Tour, finishing fourth behind Gesink by just four seconds. There are quite a few riders who are stronger pure climbers than the French, and only a few weeks ago, he would have been a good bit further down on this list. But then he just dominated the Dauphiné and I felt like I didn’t have choice but to put him up here.
That might be an overreaction, but we should also note that Sicard’s well-roundedness as a rider is rivaled possibly only by Angel Madrazo. He's safely the best puncheur among the top tier contenders, a strong time trialist, has the highest recovery and elite stamina and resistance to back it up and he’s probably the most aggressive of the contenders. Air France supports him with a really solid team as well - the quest for a podium place won't be easy, but it's definetely possible.
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier Festina - OAKA
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier outsprints Simon Spilak to take stage 20 last year in the white jersey!
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
Stage Wins
Jerseys
Giro
4.
1
Tour
5.
7.
13.
1
Vuelta
7.
4.
13.
2019 Results
Tirreno-Adriatico
Tour de Pologne
GP Liechtenstein
5.
1.
4.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
71
83
75
77
78
80
79
65
67
74
65
70
77
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Cataldo
76
73
71
73
70
Vuillermoz
75
73
72
74
71
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier is the youngest of the main challengers and the second one who doesn't have a Grand Tour podium to his name yet. Still, he has accomplished a lot already, winning the best young rider classification in all three GTs and getting into the Top 5 in both the Giro and the Tour last year. And he's only gotten stronger since.
He is still a weaker rider on paper than Madrazo, not quite the climber as Morton and he doesn't have the same strong squad behind him, neither in the mountains nor in the TTT. But with his good hill and time trialing skills and elite secondary stats, he's as complete a rider as almost anyone else here. And he has beaten Madrazo once already this season, in Liechtenstein. Just like for Sicard, the door is wide open for Lecuisinier to go for his first podium place - or possibly more.
Joseph Dombrowski eBuddy
Joseph Dombrowski finishing third behind only Herklotz and Spilak in this year's Tirreno-Adriatico!
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
'14
Stage Wins
Jerseys
Giro
2.
17.
1
Tour
4.
7.
Vuelta
2.
22.
3
2019 Results
Tour of East Java
Tirreno-Adriatico
GP Liechtenstein
7.
3.
12.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
70
84
75
71
80
78
78
55
60
75
67
72
71
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Brambilla
79
76
75
73
76
Majka
76
71
76
72
75
Aru
78
74
74
75
76
Joe Dombrowski has a history of coming really close. In 2016, he missed the Tour podium by 11 seconds. 2017, he was 27 seconds off a Vuelta GC victory. And while last year's second place in the Giro was a little less close, he certainly hopes that second places won't be the pinnacle of his GT career.
This year might be a chance to change that on the biggest of stages. He's the weakest time trialist among the first tier of contenders, but the one ITT might only play a minor role. eBuddy brings a decent, albeit not elite squad to support him. He's shown his strength at the Tirreno-Adriatico, beating riders like Lecuisinier, Morton and even Taaramäe - with the National Champion's jersey on his shoulders, he will try and go for it all.
Taylor Phinney Grieg - Maersk
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
'14
'13
'12
'11
'10
Stage Wins
Jerseys
Giro
1.
22.
2
Tour
2.
5.
4.
13.
7.
8
Vuelta
2.
24.
3
2019 Results
Praha - Karlovy Vary - Praha
Tour de Suisse
1.
1.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
73
83
77
83
77
74
76
58
72
75
68
71
83
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Nesset
78
73
77
76
74
Laengen
76
73
76
75
75
Iturria
77
73
77
74
76
Eg
75
70
75
73
73
Taylor Phinney is one of four former Grand Tour winners present (Madrazo being the first) and he finished second in both of his last GTs including the 2017 Tour de France. And in the Grieg-Maersk jersey, he has yet to finish a race without winning it - continuing this stretch here would be the ultimate accomplishment. It might be a surprise to see him comparatively low on this list, and he may very well outperform it by a lot, but there’s a reason for it.
As one of the more accomplished riders in ManGame GT history, Phinney was always able to rely on his extraordinary time trialing. With just 25 kilometers of ITT, that singular strength is severely undercut. His resistance and recovery are among the worst of the top contenders and there are arguably a few stronger climbers as well. Ultimately, the American’s fate in this year's race will probably depend on the impact the two TT stages will have on the GC. Not only is he the favorite for the ITT, but Grieg - Maersk is also the hottest bet for the TTT. Depending on how much time he and his team can gain, Phinney could very well enter the final week in the yellow jersey, and then everything is on the table.
Andy Schleck EA Vesuvio
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
'14
'13
'12
'11
'10
'08
'07
Stage Wins
Jerseys
Giro
1.
1.
3.
5.
4
Tour
1.
1.
3.
6.
7
Vuelta
1.
2.
1.
8
2019 Results
Giro d'Italia
4.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
69
83
73
72
74
79
79
51
60
76
68
62
71
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Goos
77
74
78
75
76
Wirtgen
74
72
73
72
71
Speaking of accomplished riders: Andy Schleck is a ManGame legend. Rivaled in his GT prowess perhaps only by Damiano Cunego, he is the only rider to have won every Grand Tour twice - which makes him the second former Tour winner next to Madrazo - and he had an incredible five year streak during which he won every single GT he entered. That streak has broken, though, and it broke in this year's Giro d'Italia.
There's no denying that Andy Schleck is still a legitimate threat to any other contender. But he is also slightly past his peak. He still has elite skills that could have him in contention for the podium or even the overall victory, but at 34 years, his variance has increased. He also has one of the weakest cores of support in the mountains - although Goos should not be underestimated -, but EA Vesuvio at least provides him with a strong team for the TTT.
Stefan Denifl SPAR - Siam Cement
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
'14
'13
'12
Stage Wins
Giro
6.
9.
16.
8.
Tour
Vuelta
5.
6.
11.
2
2019 Results
Tirreno-Adriatico
GP Liechtenstein
Vuelta a Espana
14.
10.
5.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
70
84
76
72
75
71
76
54
66
65
73
64
72
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Jang
76
76
72
70
70
Gidich
73
76
76
75
70
Stefan Denifl has possibly the least impressive Grand Tour palmarès of any of the top riders, but he's here to change that. He showed his potential with a fifth place at this year's Vuelta, and his stats back up his ambitions as he enters the Tour de France as a contender for the first time.
As one of the best climbers, he is mainly held back by his resistance and recovery, similar to Phinney, but in contrast to the American, he also is a subpar time trialist and he doesn't have the greatest team support either. Denifl is maybe the rider with the highest variance: If he manages to replicate his Vuelta result, I assume he would be very happy - a few breakout performances in the moutains could see him aiming even higher, but he could also finish quite a bit lower if his resistances catches up with him one too many times.
Jose Alarcon Repsol - Netflix
Grand Tour History
'18
'17
'16
'15
'14
'13
'12
'11
Stage Wins
Jerseys
Giro
6.
1.
2.
4.
9
Tour
4.
20.
1
Vuelta
8.
17.
1.
3
2019 Results
Tour of East Java
Giro d'Italia
21.
7.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
69
84
73
67
71
74
73
50
59
78
79
66
66
Main Domestiques
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
ST
RS
RC
Ndayisenga
78
75
69
68
73
Herrada
75
73
72
72
70
Novak
77
73
75
73
75
Jose Alarcon is the fourth former Grand Tour winner. His 2017 Giro ranks amongst the most dominant GT wins of all time, with four stage wins and the fifth biggest win margin ever in any of the GTs, but it seems unlikely that he will be able to reach those heights again.
His climbing skills are still absolutely elite, but both his time trialing and his backup stats are the worst among the top contenders. He is expected to be in the Top 5-10 range, but a few strong days in the mountains and a great TTT by Repsol could just as well vault him into podium contention.
The Top 9 at a glance
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
AC
TTT
Madrazo
85
76
77
81
80
81
72
****
Morton
84
76
73
79
78
78
67
***
Sicard
82
78
76
80
79
82
70
****
Lecuisinier
83
75
77
78
80
79
74
***
Dombrowskiiiiiii
84
75
71
80
78
78
75
***
Phinney
83
77
83
77
74
76
75
*****
Schleck
83
73
72
74
79
79
76
****
Denifl
84
76
72
75
71
76
65
***
Alarcon
84
73
67
71
74
73
78
****
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
AC
TTT
Henao Montoya
82
71
71
75
79
77
73
**
Guldhammer
81
77
71
74
75
74
76
**
Monsalve
81
76
72
79
80
77
73
**
Wellens
81
75
72
79
80
76
68
***
Barguil
81
75
70
77
77
82
75
***
Galta
81
73
73
78
79
77
66
*****
The riders in this category will likely fight for the rear spots in the Top 10, hoping one or three of the riders above fail to live up to expectations.
Sergio Luis Henao Montoya is the number one climber in this group. He has good secondary stats, and although his most recent Grand Tour outing resulted in just a 13th place at this year’s Giro, he's proven himself in GTs before, with multiple Top 10s and even Top 5s in all three. But he's going to be in trouble on tougher hill stages and we also get into murky territory in terms of team time trial squads. Consequently, that handicap also applies to his teammate Rasmus Guldhammer, who gives T-Mobile double the chance of a Top 10. In contrast to Henao, he is a really good puncheur but lacks resistance and recovery.
Very well-rounded and experienced, Yonathan Monsalve, Tim Wellens and Warren Barguil are very close in terms of their climbing, their hill and time trialing, both individually and with their teams. All three have been in the Top 10 of the Tour before, the latter two as recently as last year (8th and 7th, respectively), and nothing less will be the goal again.
Last year's 6th place is Fredrik Strand Galta. In addition, he won not one but two stages as well. This might make him undervalued in this spot, but given the depth of stronger climbers, it does seem difficult to repeat such a strong result. It's definetely not impossible, though!
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
AC
TTT
Velits
81
74
73
72
71
71
65
****
Machado
81
74
71
72
69
69
67
**
Brambilla
79
76
70
75
73
76
63
***
Carthy
79
74
65
75
75
76
69
**
Arndt
79
76
56
77
76
72
75
*
Brenes
79
73
69
73
80
70
70
*
Lopez
78
79
70
74
73
73
76
*
In the fifth tier, Peter Velits and Wild Card hope Tiago Machado are the standout riders. Both have impressive resumees: Velits finished second at the Giro as recently as 2017 and seventh at the Dauphiné just a couple of weeks ago, and Machado has been in the Top 10 of all of the seven GTs he's finished since 2012. But age has caught up with both of them, apparent most notably in pretty rough resistance and recovery stats. At 34 years of age, three weeks is a long time to be in the saddle - we'll see what they can accomplish.
Gianluca Brambilla and Hugh Carthy are the first deputies to be listed, riding primarily for Dombrowski and Monsalve, respectively. But both have ambitions of their own: Brambilla just finished sixth (!) at this year’s Vuelta, has a number of Top 20 GT results to his name and would certainly like to add another one. Carthy, meanwhile is one of the two main contenders for the white jersey of the best young rider.
The other one: Miguel Angel Lopez. The Colombian is the strongest puncheur of any of the contenders, so he willl look for the hilly stages to make up the time he might lose in the mountains. Unfortunately, Evonik is arguably the worst time trialing squad at this race, so he has to expect to lose a ton of time there as well.
The same applies for Nikias Arndt and Gregory Brenes, two of the team leaders on the lower end of the spectrum. Arndt, in addition, is also easily the worst individual time trialist here. A Top 20, even a Top 15 is certainly not out of the question for both, but it's going to be a long road. They could also chose to go more for stage wins and the polkadots, which is true for the other riders in this category as well.
Fringe Contenders and Top Domestiques
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
AC
TTT
Dekker
78
72
75
72
77
75
66
****
Lunke
78
72
73
76
74
78
64
***
Karnulin
78
74
70
76
75
77
70
****
Nesset
78
73
69
77
76
74
69
*****
Smith
78
75
68
72
74
75
74
***
Aru
78
74
64
74
75
76
70
***
Ndayisenga
78
75
65
69
68
73
73
****
Vosekalns
78
75
62
69
73
72
71
*
Goos
77
74
76
78
75
76
73
****
Novak
77
73
76
75
73
75
65
****
Novikov
77
72
70
74
71
71
70
**
Finally, we have another few domestiques who could sneak into the back end of the Top 20 or play a good role in breakaways in the mountains. 8 time Tour de France stage winner Thomas Dekker is obviously the biggest name. With 35 years, he's also the single oldest rider in the peloton.
Ndayisenga should be noted as a third possible contender for the white jersey, who will find himself in a helper role mostly, but should be able to count on a boost from the team time trial. Meanwhile, Novikov is Tinkoff's strongest climber.
Of the other riders, Sindre Skjostad Lunke and Denys Karnulin arguably have the best stats, maybe alongside Marc Goos, and as part of good teams, they might be the most likely to have a good GC result. But in this part of the contenders list, so much is dependent on team strategy, breakaways and situational awareness that it's hard to make any predictions.
This category could also have been extended by another 10 to 15 riders, but for clarity's sake, I've made a cut here. Many of those riders can be found as the main domestiques of the top contenders, though. One special mention goes to Tanel Kangert, who sensationally finished 13th last year.
To conclude the GC part of the preview, let's have a closer look at the team time trial:
Team Time Trial
Top 3
Top 5
Top 7
Grieg - Maersk
80
79
77
Podium Ambition
79
79
75
Generali *
78
78
77
Repsol - Netflix
79
77
75
Aegon - Lavazza
78
77
76
Air France - KLM *
78
77
75
Gazelle
77
76
75
EA Vesuvio
77
76
74
eBuddy
77
75
73
SPAR - Siam Cement
77
75
72
Bennelong - Mitchelton
76
75
73
Spoiler
Aker - MOT
75
74
71
Festina - OAKA
77
73
70
Moser - Sygic
76
73
70
Fablok - Bank BGZ
75
73
71
Andorra Cycling Project *
75
71
68
Farfetch Pro Cycling
73
70
68
Team Tinkoff
71
70
70
T-Mobile
71
70
68
Isostar - LimeBike
70
68
66
Team Puma - SAP
70
67
65
Indosat **
69
66
65
Evonik - ELKO
69
66
64
The number denotes the average TT skill of the respective riders.
* indicates 7 instead of 8 riders
** indicate 6 instead of 8 riders
Grieg - Maersk is the favorite for the stage win, and Taylor Phinney could snatch the yellow jersey to give himself a confidence boost ahead of the first mountain stages. But there are three to five squads that could beat them on a good day. For most teams though, it's just about setting as good a time as possible for their GC captains.
The Sprinters
Arnaud Demare
Grand Tour Stage Wins
'18
'17
Giro
6
Tour
2
Vuelta
2019 Highlights
Milano - San Remo
Rund um Köln
Riga - Jurmala
3.
8.
5.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
73
67
80
61
75
72
80
63
82
81
70
63
61
Key Support
FL
SP
AC
HI
RC
FL
SP
AC
HI
RC
Felline
68
74
78
77
71
Cavagna
76
73
71
74
71
Arnaud Demare has struggled in sprints this season, with the one exception being Milano - San Remo. But the field of sprinters isn't particularly deep in this year's Tour, and Grand Tours have brought the best out of him before. What makes him especially dangerous, of course, is the fact that he's also among the best puncheurs in the peloton, and quite a few of the seven stages categorized as flat have some difficulties - not to mention the hilly stages, where he's a big threat as well. Demare is the odds-on favorite for the green jersey, there's no doubt about it.
Dylan Groenewegen
Grand Tour Stage Wins
'18
'17
Giro
2
Tour
Vuelta
2
2019 Highlights
Milano - San Remo
Rund um Köln
Tirreno-Adriatico
2.
2.
Stage Win
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
73
61
66
64
74
71
85
59
82
81
59
64
72
Key Support
FL
SP
AC
HI
RC
Boom
73
59
72
73
70
Dylan Groenewegen is on par with Demare as a sprinter, as evidenced by beating him in the finale of Milano - San Remo. He also has the highest recovery of any rider at this race, which makes him a prime favorite for the Champs Elysees. But he can't compete with the French as soon as the road turns uphill, and he lacks any meaningful team support. Still, it would be a surprise, and certainly a disappointment, if the Aegon rider failed to add his first Tour de France stage win to his palmares.
Nick Van der Lijke
Grand Tour Stage Wins
'18
'17
'16
Giro
Tour
Vuelta
1
1
2019 Highlights
Milano - San Remo
Ronde van Nederland
Rund um Köln
9.
4. (Stage 2)
9.
Stats
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CO
SP
AC
FT
DH
PR
73
64
76
66
73
71
78
64
82
79
66
63
68
Key Support
FL
SP
AC
HI
RC
FL
SP
AC
HI
RC
Reimer
75
77
80
75
77
Kneisky
79
67
71
67
73
There are one or two other riders who could claim to be better pure sprinters than Nick Van der Lijke, and he arguably is a step below Demare and Groenewegen. Two things still elevate the Dutch to this top tier: his really good hill stat, that should come in handy in more than one stage, as mentioned above; and Martin Reimer, who is possibly the single best leadout in a peloton that is sorely lacking of those.
The Top 3 at a glance
FL
SP
AC
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
Demare
73
82
81
75
72
80
67
80
Groenewegen
73
82
81
74
71
85
61
66
Van der Lijke
73
82
79
73
71
78
64
76
FL
SP
AC
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
Nelson
72
81
81
70
64
79
55
60
Van Poppel
72
81
78
74
71
78
60
64
Stauff
74
80
81
74
69
76
53
65
Samolenkov
74
80
79
75
71
78
64
64
Ricki Nelson is probably the rider who can most closely rival Demare and Groenewegen in terms of pure speed. But once either the pace gets too high for longer stretches or there's an incline, he suffers, and it's not going to be easy for him to get to Paris. He does however have one of the few great leadouts in Alaphilippe (see below).
Danny Van Poppel is a very fast man as well, and although he lacks the elite acceleration of a Nelson, his resistance is much better. He is very much on his own in sprints, though, as his team focusses on supporting Dombrowski.
Andreas Stauff on the other hand has one of the better domestiques in Rudy Barbier and his acceleration is top tier. Like Nelson, he struggles mightily on the uphill, which should provide him with some challenges here.
Artem Samolenkov is Tinkoff's hope in the sprint. Compared to the others, he holds up somewhat well in steeper territory, and his speed is nothing to sneeze at either.
FL
SP
AC
ST
RS
RC
MO
HI
Bouhanni
74
80
77
74
69
74
55
63
Soupe
72
79
77
72
69
76
64
66
Van der Sanden
73
78
79
71
69
77
60
65
Liepins
73
78
79
73
68
77
60
66
Reimer
75
77
80
77
70
77
66
75
Alaphilippe
72
77
77
74
69
81
66
73
Eislers
75
77
74
74
75
72
67
66
Nacer Bouhanni and Geoffrey Soupe are the second and third options for a French sprint win, next to Demare. Both have good speed and slightly worse acceleration, but while Soupe is a decent rider uphill, Bouhanni is in the same boat as Nelson and Stauff: possibly facing the fight against the time limit on several occasions.
In other years, riders like Geert Van der Sanden and Emils Liepins might not be in the conversation for top results in a Tour de France sprint stage, but this year's start list sees them pretty close to the top. As neither Isostar nor Evonik have top tier GC contenders, the two could provide some highlights for their teams.
Finally, Martin Reimer, Julian Alaphilippe and Ingus Eislers are the most capable leadouts, with a pretty big drop afterwards. Alaphilippe will also have his sight set on the tougher flat stages where his leader Nelson might struggle.
Ulissi and Anuar Aziz are the premier puncheurs of this race, with one exception of course in Demare, who's on par on hills but obviously has a quicker finish and even slightly better secondary stats.
Moazemi joins his leader Lopez to form a pretty strong duo for hill stages, hoping for a stage win. Meanwhile, Chernetskiy is Tinkoff's second rider going after stage wins, next to Samolenkov in the sprints. As the team doesn't really have a good GC rider, a lot rests on their shoulders.
A lot of strong puncheurs fill the rest of this list. Smit, Bayly and Bostner stand out as the most aggressive, while Bostner's teammate Raileanu brings strong climbing ability to the table.
Probably because of the team time trial, the race is also packed with strong time trialists. But only a handful of them will actually fight for the stage win in the ITT - and the top favorite for that is still Phinney. Chief among his challengers is Zmorka, the best pure time trialist of this bunch.
But he's not the only one who has his eyes on that day. Vlatos, Sergent and Würtz also count as top favorites, if not for the stage then at least for a podium. And Paillot will hope for some home soil bonus and a nice boost by the spectators.
Lastly, there are a number of teams who have set goals for this race - some maybe more realistic than others:
Goals
Team
Goal
Leader
MO
Grieg - Maersk
Win
Phinney
83
T-Mobile
Win
Henao Montoya
82
Aegon - Lavazza
Top 3
Velits
81
eBuddy
Top 3
Dombrowski
84
Gazelle
Top 3
Madrazo
85
Air France - KLM
Top 5
Sicard
82
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Top 5
Morton
84
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Top 5
Monsalve
81
Festina - OAKA
Top 5
Lecuisinier
83
Aker - MOT
Top 10
Galta
81
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
Top 10
Brenes
79
SPAR - Siam Cement
Top 10
Denifl
84
EA Vesuvio
Top 10
Schleck
83
SP
Podium Ambition
Points
Nelson
81
The stage is set for another edition of the Grand Boucle. Success and failure, excitement and disappointment and a lot of drama await us over these coming three weeks. I hope you’re looking forward to it - I know I am!
Startlist
Spoiler
Groenewegen
Dylan
Aegon - Lavazza
Paillot
Yoann
Aegon - Lavazza
Velits
Peter
Aegon - Lavazza
Dekker
Thomas
Aegon - Lavazza
Dumoulin
Tom
Aegon - Lavazza
Boom
Lars
Aegon - Lavazza
Frison
Frederik
Aegon - Lavazza
Koep
Thomas
Aegon - Lavazza
Sicard
Romain
Air France - KLM
Kwok
Ho-Ting
Air France - KLM
Koch
Michel
Air France - KLM
Salinas
Jonathan
Air France - KLM
Rosch
David
Air France - KLM
Bernaudeau
Mathieu
Air France - KLM
Andersen
Michael Valgren
Air France - KLM
Bouet
Maxime
Air France - KLM
Galta
Fredrik Strand
Aker - MOT
Lunke
Sindre Skjostad
Aker - MOT
Vangstad
Andreas
Aker - MOT
Aasvold
Lorents Ola
Aker - MOT
Pruus
Peter
Aker - MOT
Walsleben
Philipp
Aker - MOT
Silva
Nihal
Aker - MOT
Yzeiraj
Marildo
Aker - MOT
Summerhill
Danny
Andorra Cycling Project
Machado
Tiago
Andorra Cycling Project
Mottin
Hugues
Andorra Cycling Project
Novak
Domen
Andorra Cycling Project
Kireva
Albert
Andorra Cycling Project
Baltazar
Carlos
Andorra Cycling Project
Galiev
Ulugbek
Andorra Cycling Project
Urcelay
Adria
Andorra Cycling Project
Morton
Lachlan
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Smith
Dion
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Dyball
Benjamin
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Roe
Timothy
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Watson
Calvin
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Canty
Brendan
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Bayly
Cameron
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Oram
James
Bennelong - Mitchelton
Schleck
Andy
EA Vesuvio
Van der Lijke
Nick
EA Vesuvio
Goos
Marc
EA Vesuvio
Reimer
Martin
EA Vesuvio
Wirtgen
Tom
EA Vesuvio
Jungels
Bob
EA Vesuvio
Smit
Willie
EA Vesuvio
Kneisky
Morgan
EA Vesuvio
Dombrowski
Joseph
eBuddy
Lammertink
Steven
eBuddy
Van Poppel
Danny
eBuddy
Brambilla
Gianluca
eBuddy
Howson
Damien
eBuddy
Aru
Fabio
eBuddy
Majka
Rafel
eBuddy
Goldstein
Omer
eBuddy
Lopez
Miguel Angel
Evonik - ELKO
Moazemi
Arvin
Evonik - ELKO
Vosekalns
Andris
Evonik - ELKO
Liepins
Emils
Evonik - ELKO
Sergis
Kaspars
Evonik - ELKO
Egger
Mike Aaron
Evonik - ELKO
Eislers
Ingus
Evonik - ELKO
Belgasem
Ahmed Youssef
Evonik - ELKO
Wellens
Tim
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Raileanu
Cristian
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Hacecky
Martin
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Nareklishvili
Giorgi
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Shapira
Idan
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Bostner
Jaka
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Kaczmarek
Jakub
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Stimulak
Klemen
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Monsalve
Yonathan
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Carthy
Hugh
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Bettiol
Alberto
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Atkins
Josh
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Gogl
Michael
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Salzmann
Jodok
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Menten
Milan
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Tizza
Marco
Farfetch Pro Cycling
Lecuisinier
Pierre-Henri
Festina - OAKA
Vlatos
Panagiotis
Festina - OAKA
Stauff
Andreas
Festina - OAKA
Cataldo
Dario
Festina - OAKA
Ioannidis
Nikolaos
Festina - OAKA
Vuillermoz
Alexis
Festina - OAKA
Barbier
Rudy
Festina - OAKA
Mavrikakis
Michail
Festina - OAKA
Madrazo
Angel
Gazelle
Kangert
Tanel
Gazelle
Karnulin
Denys
Gazelle
Bibby
Ian
Gazelle
Vervaeke
Louis
Gazelle
Konrad
Patrick
Gazelle
Boaro
Manuele
Gazelle
Fejes
Gabor
Gazelle
Ulissi
Diego
Generali
Oliveira
Nelson
Generali
Viviani
Elia
Generali
Brown
Nathan
Generali
Kung
Stefan
Generali
Dees
Tim
Generali
Rosskopf
Joey
Generali
Ghyselinck
Jan
Generali
Phinney
Taylor
Grieg - Maersk
Würtz
Mads
Grieg - Maersk
Laengen
Vegard Stake
Grieg - Maersk
Nesset
Sigurd
Grieg - Maersk
Hansen
Lasse Norman
Grieg - Maersk
Iturria
Mikel
Grieg - Maersk
Eg
Niklas
Grieg - Maersk
Korsaeth
Truls Engen
Grieg - Maersk
Anuar Aziz
Mohamed Shawal
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
Brenes
Gregory
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
Okbamariam
Tesfom
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
Manulang
Robin
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
Kulimbetov
Nurbolat
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
Arifin
Muhammad Imam
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
Pernsteiner
Hermann
Isostar - LimeBike
Gilanipoor
Abolfazl
Isostar - LimeBike
Van der Sanden
Geert
Isostar - LimeBike
Jaramillo
Daniel Alexander
Isostar - LimeBike
Frankiny
Kilian
Isostar - LimeBike
Augustyn
John-Lee
Isostar - LimeBike
Vermote
Julien
Isostar - LimeBike
Katrasnik
Gasper
Isostar - LimeBike
Barguil
Warren
Moser - Sygic
Prado
Ignacio Jesus
Moser - Sygic
Soupe
Geoffrey
Moser - Sygic
Marycz
Jaroslaw
Moser - Sygic
Danacik
Jakub
Moser - Sygic
Turek
Daniel
Moser - Sygic
Kolar
Michael
Moser - Sygic
Schönberger
Sebastian
Moser - Sygic
Cataford
Alexandor
Podium Ambition
Nelson
Ricki
Podium Ambition
Sergent
Jesse
Podium Ambition
Hepburn
Michael
Podium Ambition
Alaphilippe
Julian
Podium Ambition
Postlberger
Lukas
Podium Ambition
Quaade
Rasmus
Podium Ambition
Vanderpool
Kristian
Podium Ambition
Alarcon
Jose
Repsol - Netflix
Zmorka
Marlen
Repsol - Netflix
Novak
Jakub
Repsol - Netflix
Ndayisenga
Valens
Repsol - Netflix
Gonzalez Salas
Mario
Repsol - Netflix
Herrada
Jesus
Repsol - Netflix
Castroviejo
Jonathan
Repsol - Netflix
Dunbar
Eddie
Repsol - Netflix
Denifl
Stefan
SPAR - Siam Cement
David
Tom
SPAR - Siam Cement
Bouhanni
Nacer
SPAR - Siam Cement
Van Winden
Dennis
SPAR - Siam Cement
Gidich
Yevgeniy
SPAR - Siam Cement
Leung
Chun Wing
SPAR - Siam Cement
Jang
Gyung Gu
SPAR - Siam Cement
Delgerbayar
Sonomtseren
SPAR - Siam Cement
Demare
Arnaud
Team Puma - SAP
Felline
Fabio
Team Puma - SAP
Arndt
Nikias
Team Puma - SAP
Mager
Christian
Team Puma - SAP
Cavagna
Remi
Team Puma - SAP
Wackermann
Luca
Team Puma - SAP
Dunne
Conor
Team Puma - SAP
Niu
Yikui
Team Puma - SAP
Samolenkov
Artem
Team Tinkoff
Chernetskiy
Sergey
Team Tinkoff
Kolesnikov
Sergei
Team Tinkoff
Rybalkin
Aleksey
Team Tinkoff
Novikov
Nikita
Team Tinkoff
Mamykin
Matvey
Team Tinkoff
Foliforov
Alexander
Team Tinkoff
Shalunov
Evgeny
Team Tinkoff
Guldhammer
Rasmus
T-Mobile
Henao Montoya
Sergio Luis
T-Mobile
Wohrer
David
T-Mobile
Sanogo
Abou
T-Mobile
Restrepo
Jhonatan
T-Mobile
Kanepejs
Deins
T-Mobile
Lemus Davila
Luis Enrique
T-Mobile
Goncalves
Gaspar
T-Mobile
.
MGUCI Era Stats
Here's an overview of some all-time stats, courtesy of the work Aquarius and jandal7 did previously, showing the MGUCI-Era stage wins and days in the respective jersey. They're updated to include last year's race, which saw Simon Spilak and Rein Taaramäe move up into the Top 3 in stage wins and, to my great delight, Dominik Nerz take second place in all time days in the polkadot.
Emboldened names denote riders that have won that classification, riders in italic compete this year.
Sorry for any confusion for those reading this immediately, evidently the first post contained too much text so I had to do a quick edit. Hope I didn't overdo it in general, I just had fun compiling it all and decided to go with it But there should be enough overviews in between that it works if you just want to skim over it, I think.
Going to give this a little more time than usual before the first stage, expect that on Monday so we’ll have a nice and clean three weeks.
Wow cunego59, this is something else. Hats off to you sir. I'm a sucker for historic stats, so a great read even though I'm not even competing here this year.
lɒuǫiƨɘᗡ will be cheering on Spanish legend Angel Madrazo and (some manager bias) the two top-tier Americans: Joseph Dombrowski and Taylor Phinney.
Amazing preview. Sums up the current contenders and includes history, so we know how things might look by the end of the race too. Never knew that two of Meiji/Rakutens former riders are so close to the top for days in Yellow and Days in Green (although we got them 1 year before their declines)
Pretty weak sprint field though. Apart from the top sprinters Hill stats, I'd say just about every PCT sprint race has a much deeper field, so will be interesting to see how it plays out. Maybe managers were scared away from bringing low MO riders that would potentially OTL on a MO stage and waste race days.
Brilliant preview! I like how you have done the favorites looking at this season result a lot, although I would say that Taylor Phinney should be the main rival for Angel Madrazo here. After him I would say Morton and Dombrowski and then Lecuisinier and Sicard should fight for the last spot in the top 5. I hope Lecuisinier can be aggressive after the inevideble time loss of the TTT.
The greatest race of the season, and the greatest preview of the season! Incredible work cunego, thank you very much.
This is make or break for our season.
After hopefully having cleansed the negative energy from the last two races where Herklotz and Demare failed to make an impact, we come here fully motivated and fully stacked to support Arnaud in his second home GT, and on a perfect route for a rider like him.
Luckily, only one of the three other big punchy sprinters (and only one good sprinty puncheur) has made the way to Belgium, which means Demare is the big gun on the startlist and we can realistically aim for several stage wins and green.
We don't want to expect 6 again like in last year's Giro, but we're confident we can take lots of points from this TdF if we play it right.
To set him up on all sorts of finishes, our leadouts are plenty and versatile.
Fabio Felline has the best sp/acc combination at "only" 74/78, with similar mo/hill stats to Demare which means they should be able to make it to any finish at about the same strength.
Second strongest leadout at 74/72 would be Luca Wackermann, who also comes with a good mo/hil spread and great 74fl to fight for the best position.
An alternative option for the third last rider is Remi Cavagna who I hope shows good synergy with his fellow countryman Demare, at a weaker 73/71 sp/acc but with great 76fl and surely acceptable mo/hil stats as well for the easier stages.
If we have to go a different leadout route on the hard stages where Demare will barely stay in the peloton, we have prepared the duo of Nikias Arndt followed by Yikui Niu.
Niu at 73/72 should be quick enough from a reduced field to make separation for Arnaud, and we've seen him overperform in the mountains already this season so we expect him to stick around for the tougher finishes.
And our absolute failsafe for any situation is obviously Nikias Arndt. At 71/75 sp/acc, he's easily good enough to take on responsibility whenever necessary and there's never going to be any excuse for him to not have enough energy to make the front group and lead Demare out with 79/76 mo/hil.
Furthermore, Arndt is obviously our guy for the mountain stages. With no TTT setup and an expected big loss in the TT, there's no point focusing on the GC and I hope he can therefore focus fully on a KoM jersey hunt. Mager and Dunne are his supports.
Our leadout is far from strong, and we set up this team in the last few seasons with the expectation of rarely having to create one in the first place.
Here, we have the pressure and likely the expectation of being one of the dominant sprint teams, and luckily, it looks like very few other teams have found roster space to accomodate stronger leadouts themselves.
Reimer is obviously a weapon for van der Lijke, but EA lacks a third decent sprinter to set him up. While Felline/Wackermann can't challenge Reimer, we can get ahead of their train by the time Reimer takes over.
Groenewegen has weaker sprinters on both leadout positions than we do, so it's not very likely he will be able to rely on them.
Nelson has Alaphillippe who certainly outspeeds us, but then again will Nelson even make the majority of sprint finishes? Furthermore, he too suffers on position #3.
Van Poppel is the lone sprinter on a GC-focused eBuddy team, but we all know train surfing can be a powerful strategy.
Stauff has Barbier as a great asset, but just like Nelson he will struggle to get to the flamme rouge in the first place.
Samolenkov has acceptable secondary stats, so we might have to deal with him on some finishes, while our former rider Bouhanni doesn't and we hope to not see him in the mix often.
Overall, the leadout quality is rather bad, which can mean one of two things:
We get slower sprints and ACC will be key to create separation (good for Demare), or the strongest sprinters will have to launch too early and it'll be a random slipstreaming clusterfuck (bad for Demare).
Stage 1 is obviously the most important stage for Puma already.
If we manage to win in Bruxelles, we take yellow into the first big puncheur test on stage 2, where only the best positioned riders on the final hill will challenge for the win after the descent. Yellow jersey AI would be immensely important for Demare to be up there.
This could then translate into a good stage 3 too, and stage 4 will require an attentive and well-supported Demare to keep him in the peloton to contest another selective sprint that can separate him from everyone but van der Lijke in the fight for green. We need preferential AI treatment there too.
When I took this a win goal, it was unrealistic, but then we suddenly tried our luck with Phinney. Firstly I thought I would be going to for the Vuelta, but given our goal and since I'd like to have a good amount of money for training next year, the thought of the Tour gradually grew on me. A key point will be to get yellow early on, so the fact that I was fairly confident we could have the best TTT squad present, made me go for the Tour. The fact that it comes on stage five might be a problem though, for the likes of Korsæth and Hansen. If it all goes to the plan, he will come to the ITT in Pau in yellow. Then he stands a decent chance of going all the way, especially if the race is ridden rather passive until the last mountain stages.
On paper Madrazo looks like the toughest competitor, but then again Sicard was flying in Dauphiné and Madrazo looked a bit under the expected level.
The team is more or less as good as it could be, with everything behind Phinney, so fingers crossed for Phinney to continue his good trend so far this season. He's been more or less infallible so far during his first two races for us, so a third successively GC win would be something
Thanks for the amazing preview. One must love this kind of stuff and so do I! Hats off, mate.
Our Top-5 goal is doable and has to be the minimum achievement here. I like the preview for putting Morton on 2nd position, but obviously it will go down to daily form and luck to achieve this position eventually. Podium as my personal hope/dream/goal and given the latest performance by Morton and Smith, it's a realistic goal, I would say. Morton hasn't really overperform since joining us though. I remeber his 3rd place at the Giro, where he had a few good stage results, but never looked strong to enough to do better than this. Obviously, he's a stronger rider by now, but he has still to win a stage for us, if I'm not totally wrong! That would be great here, if we do not only see breakaways taking the (late) mountain stages.
Usually, I would be confident for those breakaways though, as I used to do quite well this year in that category. At least when Haig was our leader for the GC. With Morton leading the team, I guess, we won't join too many breaks (if he doesn't f**k up the GC early in the race).
It's our strongest GT lineup in terms of OVL, but probably the weakest for getting actual results. Ricki might contest in Week 1 before being eliminated, but he's not Ewan so not harm done at all. Julian hopefully can get in the right break and sprint away. And that's about it, too far back against the big TT guys to contest there, and no real breakaway riders, bar AC.
GT's, really not worth it for a Flat focused team at all.
This is the biggest Grand Tour of the year for us. Obviously, I'm hoping Dombrowski will finish on the podium, but only Tirreno has looked good so far this year so it's definitely not going to be easy. Also, Van Poppel could be able to do some fine sprints looking at the startlist.
It's really hard to point to a big favorite here. I don't think the time - trials are long enough to give Phinney very much of an edge so he'll definitely have to do very well in the mountains as well if he wants this Tour. Madrazo seems to be back to his '12-'13 form, while Morton also seems to be doing better this year than in the previous season and then there's the home boys who have been doing well this year, especially Sicard.
Really a good idea to look at this year's results for the main contenders as it really puts things into perspective.
Here we go; race of the year! And a preview that absolutely lives up to its importance. MG reporters are amazing people.
I expect Madrazo to have atleast one or two off-days where a couple of riders win significant time on him. But there's a good number of climbing stages so there's plenty of opportunity to compensate with big performances like in the Dauphine Ventoux TT. The list of strong climbers who are dangerous contenders if they find a rich vein of form, like Sicard in Dauphine, is very long though.
I'm super excited for this race. Going to enjoy every minute of it.
Stunning preview, thanks a lot! Hoping to be part of the greatest MG race one day, for now I'll just follow it from faaaar away
Madrazo the obvious favorite - but he shouldn't have many bad days as he had one in Dauhpiné. Phinney won't be happy with so little ITT kms, maybe not the top race for him - but he could still have a good shot at the podium. Expecting a tight race for the first places!
Oh wow what an absolutely stunning preview - will have to dig into it properly later, just skim-read it now, but what a start to the Tour already. Was super excited when I saw you would take it cunego, and I can't wait for the reports! Looks like a really entertaining field, obviously cheering for Velits and Lopez here Hopefully an open race, and what is awesome is no matter who of your Top 9 win it's a pretty special story for each of them as we don't have the traditional GT winners here (except Schleck, but him winning his third TDF on the way out is a cool prospect), so happy to cheer for all of them. Good luck to all the managers here, I can't wait for it to get going
No loanees here for me but a few ex-riders, Salinas in support of Sicard and Velits leading Aegon big ones, but also hope Gilanipoor can get a free role at Isostar to bring his 80km solo mountain win tactic from Colombia last year into the big time
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15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
That's outstanding. Lovely preview! Wonder why Phinney didn't go to the Vuelta though, him at 3 stars seems wrong imo.
I absolutely have nothing to do in this race, it will be another embarrassment. The very weak sprinter startlist may hint towards loads of breakaway wins. If not, I just don't understand anything anymore...
That`s an incredible preview with lots of data and statistics and well written.
Doubt that Velits can make my top3 goal here but not having expected to get this really but had to make a GT goal.
Will be interesting if he can show his Dauphine form again but more likely he will fight for top15 and hopefully shows himself in the 3rd week going stage hunting.
Same with Dekker, who could hopefully give it a go for the KoM jersey.
Koep with his (I would need to check) 12th or 15th consecutive GT I think. Not sure he had any breakaway appearance in any of those. So let`s see if for once he can do something here.
Other than that Groenewegen obviously is strong enough for 1-2-3 stage wins on paper. In the end, no sprint train here which might either hurt him or give him a decent position in the end.
Boom, Dumoulin, Frison, Paillot for the TTT of which middle two surely won`t finish the race. The others though might be in for some early stage breakaways I hope which are too hilly for Groenewegen.
At the top Madrazo vs Phinney vs Lecusinier vs Sicard vs Dombrowski. Top 5 could be hard to challenge even though Morton and Schleck obviously can`t be underestimated. First showed great form recently and later has an impressive run by winning all his latest GTs.
Thanks very much guys, I'm happy to see you like it
SotD wrote:
I like how you have done the favorites looking at this season result a lot, although I would say that Taylor Phinney should be the main rival for Angel Madrazo here.
Yes, the order of riders after Madrazo went through numerous iterations and Phinney was first in line for a while and I think that would make sense as well. In the end, I put a lot of emphasis on resistance and recovery by putting Sicard and Lecuisinier above him. But it's only a guess, maybe Sicard having six points more in recovery has a big impact in the final week, maybe it has little to none, same with Lecuisinier's six points more in resistance. I could totally see Phinney on the podium or even winning it all and making my projection look a little silly, but I think that's one of the great things about this edition, so much can happen
Wow, what a preview! Very in-depth, informative/analytical, and also with a great design.
Thank you, cunego59! Can't wait to see the racing get going
A top 10 with Galta here is the goal for us. Fingers crossed we get it through breakaway appearances in the final week, really. I'd much rather have it that way than him riding a defensive race from start to finish. If he does the latter, the top 10 also feels very difficult, as the lower top 10 placings usually get taken by breakaway riders.
He had a sensational Tour last season., getting in the right breakaways and winning two stages, as cunego59 mentions. We can only dream of something similar
Tour de France 
Taaramäe
Spilak
Gesink
Phinney
A.Schleck
Pluchkin
Amador
Madrazo
Cunego
Popovych
Fothen
Devolder
Vinokourov
Henao Montoya
Velits
Galta
Denifl
But there should be enough overviews in between that it works if you just want to skim over it, I think. 
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
