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Chrono d'Arenberg Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 22-03-2020 18:01
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 Chrono d'Arenberg
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Preview
The Chrono d’Arenberg is a curious race. For one, it’s a time trial that features a significant amount of cobblestones. And in addition to that, this is probably as small as startlists get: Only 24 riders will take on what many may see as torturous 48,1 kilometers.
The course is slightly different to last year. Just above a kilometer shorter and with a few cobblestone sectors placed differently, it still starts with the Trouée d'Arenberg. The first time check will thus favor the northern classics specialists, afterwards we can expect the time trialists to try and gain time with more regular road in between.
Last year, Przemyslaw Kasperkiewicz won the race ahead of Adam Blythe and Ruben Zepuntke. Consequently, we see mostly good cobblestone riders here, but a few time trialing specialists have found their way as well. Let’s have a look at them first:
| FL | TT | CO | RS |  Dillier | 70 | 80 | 68 | 77 |  Van Niekerk | 74 | 76 | 64 | 73 |  Betilson | 74 | 75 | 62 | 72 |
Really only three riders of note in this category, and one towering above the other two: Silvan Dillier is easily the best time trialist in the field, sports the second best resistance stat and actually has a pretty decent cobbles stat. His chances depend on how much the result skews towards cobblestone abilities.
Van Niekerk and Betilson struggle more on those difficult roads, so they too will hope that TT has more weight than cobblestones, in contrast to the riders, who explicitly love them:
| FL | TT | CO | RS | | FL | TT | CO | RS | | Spengler | 74 | 62 | 82 | 73 |  Gaudin | 73 | 66 | 76 | 67 |  Zepuntke | 72 | 65 | 81 | 72 | Flaksis | 70 | 56 | 76 | 70 | | Nolf | 74 | 64 | 80 | 72 | Laporte | 73 | 62 | 75 | 74 |  Ferreira | 73 | 63 | 79 | 70 | Naud | 76 | 64 | 74 | 73 | | | Taubel | 73 | 60 | 78 | 73 |  Langeveld | 74 | 66 | 74 | 67 | | Albert | 74 | 56 | 77 | 72 | Archimandritis | 67 | 57 | 73 | 73 |
Lukas Spengler is the strongest specialist for the cobblestone sectors. Zepuntke finished second here last year, both he and Nolf aren't far off on cobblestones compared to Spengler and they are a slightly more competent on a time trialing bike, though not by much.
Ferreira and Taubel are the next in line, but the gap to the top riders quickly becomes bigger after them and the time trialing, overall, doesn't get much better either.
But there are a few riders who do have the capabilities to perform well in both disciplines. So let's have a look at those riders who can do a little bit of both:
| FL | TT | CO | RS | | FL | TT | CO | RS | | Debesay | 75 | 72 | 77 | 79 |  Arissol | 74 | 72 | 72 | 73 | | Kluge | 77 | 73 | 76 | 73 | Palyi | 73 | 73 | 71 | 73 | | Bohli | 74 | 70 | 77 | 75 | Bester | 72 | 73 | 74 | 71 | | Bolivar | 73 | 69 | 77 | 70 | Harrison | 72 | 72 | 73 | 70 | | | Lhotellerie | 72 | 68 | 76 | 69 |
The riders in the left column would have also fit with the cobbles specialists, but they are better time trialists, even though some more so than others. Debesay and Kluge especially stand out, not only with the combination of the key stats but their secondary stats as well. Certainly, they'll have ambitions for the top positions.
Bohli is closest to them in that regard, and much more so than Bolivar and Lhotellerie.
The riders on the right aren't above average in any single stat, but don't have a clear weakness either, which could be their key to a good result. Bester looks like the most well-equiped of this bunch to tackle the combination of cobblestones and time trialing, but these four seem pretty close on paper.
The nature of this small start list is that this is actually everyone taking part here. Still, here's another, more clear overview:
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Edited by cunego59 on 23-03-2020 11:37
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 22-03-2020 18:43
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Directeur Sportif
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Very interesting race. I really hope Debesay can win this.
Also a couple of teams like f.e. Lierse I would've really expected to be on the startlist.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 22-03-2020 19:05
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World Champion
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I thought Debesay could (on paper) walk this outside of Bohli when looking at the PCT... forgot to check the CT and Kluge looks very dangerous  Really high hopes for this one, Debesay hopefully can edge out the battle for the win, Bester could really get up there too and Morne also isn’t in a terrible place with a mid 60s COB. The most excited I’ve ever been for a TT in MG or ICL by a long long way 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 22-03-2020 19:56
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Tour de France Champion
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I decided to avoid it this year. Maybe I was wrong given the tiny startlist.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 22-03-2020 21:33
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Grand Tour Champion
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I hope PCM 18 handles the race the same way PCM 15 did, giving the cobblers the advantage. Very small startlist, not complaining from my point of view but I guess this race is only for the very niche.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 22-03-2020 22:38
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Marcovdw wrote:
I hope PCM 18 handles the race the same way PCM 15 did, giving the cobblers the advantage. Very small startlist, not complaining from my point of view but I guess this race is only for the very niche.
Not sure but i guess cobblers will be more dominant in PCM18, ITT will hardly matter i think.
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 23-03-2020 06:15
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Classics Specialist
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Why I skiped this event?
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 23-03-2020 08:06
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Tamijo wrote:
Marcovdw wrote:
I hope PCM 18 handles the race the same way PCM 15 did, giving the cobblers the advantage. Very small startlist, not complaining from my point of view but I guess this race is only for the very niche.
Not sure but i guess cobblers will be more dominant in PCM18, ITT will hardly matter i think.
Especially if they are 5 star which I think they will be
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 23-03-2020 10:19
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Marcovdw wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Marcovdw wrote:
I hope PCM 18 handles the race the same way PCM 15 did, giving the cobblers the advantage. Very small startlist, not complaining from my point of view but I guess this race is only for the very niche.
Not sure but i guess cobblers will be more dominant in PCM18, ITT will hardly matter i think.
Especially if they are 5 star which I think they will be
It is yellow at the profile so it is not lvl 5
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 23-03-2020 11:38
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Team Manager
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I have replaced my profile screenshot with the one from the Race Profiles thread to make that clear, hadn't thought of that before 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 03:40
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 24-03-2020 08:43
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Weird but lovely result. Nice to see Xero taking a lot of points from here. But really the pot of gold for UBS. Congratulations!
Also one of the best ITT reports I have ever seen 
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 24-03-2020 08:45
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So TT was important after all. Should have brought Janse van Rensburg just in case. Anyway, luckily some points with the small startlist.
Congrats UBS and thanks for the awesome report cunego59!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 24-03-2020 09:03
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World Champion
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Great great report cunego Really disappointing from us here. Not much else to be said really.
In future why shouldn’t this be a 2-day race like the other ITT classics?
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 24-03-2020 09:10
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So everyone gets points or what? Have to remember this for next year
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 24-03-2020 09:34
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That was unexpected, was quite sure this was a 90% Cob race.
Anyway OK'ish result again Lhotellerie shows that he is an important addition to the team.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 24-03-2020 12:07
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Great result for us! Love to see Dillier get a rare win. Kluge also with a very good ride.
Thanks for the reports cunego, very enjoyable!
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