df_Trek wrote:
Also to say that kill knockout as mafia doesn't help the town to much is a wicked consideration, you prefer to cast a lynch vote between someone you have ambiguous feelings? I prefer to start on who is very suspicious.
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
First of all, I fear the town will be on its first no-mislynch situation on Day 5 (if knockout is town; with a town-mafia-ratio of 4-3) or on Day 6 (if knockout actually is mafia, for you already seem to have your plans ready in that case and I will most probably be the next lynch then, reducing the ratio to 3-2). In each case chances are good we / you (depending on the case) have some mislead or inactive townies with you, while we / you can't afford any misjudging. I think in both cases the town will lose pretty plainly.
My analysis from above leads me to the conclusion that knockouts death won't benefit the town, no matter if he's mafia or town (at least not now), but is of course depending on the premise that I'm town.
I hope I made clear the problem starts with what will happen after knockout being lynched. I think we (more probably you, as I don't think I will have much influence left by then) will be in a no-mislynch situation in any case, the question is merely on which day. Once again, I don't see much odds the town can win in such a situation (especially if jdog is actually pro-town, regarding quadsas' constant voting on jdog, and more or less inactive players). As knockout seemingly lost trust to me by now too, I will probably be lynched after him regardless of his alignment. So I'm thinking if it would not be better for the town to lynch me first, as I know my alignment at least and the result may lead to some townies start thinking further than just "knockout is mafia, let's get rid of him". (I'll think about that over night, as I really consider this option, and not in a sulky way.)
And once again: knockout might well be mafia, but the confirmation of this will be just too costly for the town at the moment. If you're convinced he's mafia, you can still lynch him on one of the coming no-mislynch days.
I know it's my bad we got to this situation, as I wanted to strengthen my point of view that quick lynches are almost always bad for the town (something I experienced and preached since Day 3 of Mafia VIII, getting mostly ignored and resulting in a perfect 100% pro-town-lynches in the 2 and a bit games since) and thus created this dilemma (that maybe just I see right now) by bringing together knockouts fate and mine. Sorry about that.
I agree with you here, that's the reason why I haven't cast a lynch vote yet
Bikex appears very protown to me. He plays a very direct game, every message has an intention. I dont like that he seemed quite focussed on my activity right from the beginning but i'd say it's more paranoia against "one of the strongest players" (his words) than bad faith.
@Bikex: I would like to hear more thoughts about scenarios where I'm townish. Just assume for a bit that I'm protown, where would you look for guys that are mafia alligned?
knockout wrote:
@df_trek: Can i get your current read on trekbmc & what you'd think about a lynch attempt on him?
Imo it's almost a shot in the dark...in mafia VIII was quite the same and he was pro-town. I wouldn't cast a lynch on him
I agree with you. Reason behind the question: I looked at day 1 again to rethink my opinion on trek and i still cant see many scenarios where he is mafia without you because i struggle to see how the mafia would have watched so quietly and your vote on waghlon was crucial to save him. i doubt that anyone would enjoy a possible victory by such an extreme case of not playing the game so i continue to think that he is more likely town. I kinda hope that he gets replaced by an active player because that's what we need for the remainder of the game.
jseadog1 wrote:
Why did I lynch knockout? Well, I think I realize how good he has been fooling us this whole time. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because I typically like playing the game with him. He is a good player. I think this game really proves that. The whole fight between me and quadsas, I can see knockout instigating things on the backend and being aligned with quadsas. I am fairly certain at this point. My 4 mafia members are as follows:
knockout, quadsas, trekbmc, ???
1) I'm not sure how you think that this game proves that i am a good player based on the game so far without knowing my role?
2) I struggle to see how the fight between you and me has something to do with me?
3) You seem to be quite sure that quadsas and me are a team together. Would you say that it's more likely that i'm mafia without quadsas than quadsas mafia without me?
knockout wrote:
and your vote on waghlon was crucial to save him.
Actually your vote was crucial...you removed one vote on trekbmc to cast on waghlon, wasn't it?
My vote was crucial to lynch Waghlon (it would have been no lynch otherwise), yours was crucial to save trekbmc
Ok I got now, taking a look back on what happened ..
Btw you can believe it or not, but when I casted waghlon vote I didn't noticed yet that there was already Croatia's vote on him
jseadog1 wrote:
Why did I lynch knockout? Well, I think I realize how good he has been fooling us this whole time. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because I typically like playing the game with him. He is a good player. I think this game really proves that. The whole fight between me and quadsas, I can see knockout instigating things on the backend and being aligned with quadsas. I am fairly certain at this point. My 4 mafia members are as follows:
knockout, quadsas, trekbmc, ???
1) I'm not sure how you think that this game proves that i am a good player based on the game so far without knowing my role?
2) I struggle to see how the fight between you and me has something to do with me?
3) You seem to be quite sure that quadsas and me are a team together. Would you say that it's more likely that i'm mafia without quadsas than quadsas mafia without me?
1) The statement was assuming you were mafia. So if you are town, I stand corrected.
2) Fight between me and quadsas not you
3) I said "I can see" originally which means it would make sense to me if that ends up being the case. As to answer your last question, it sounds like you are asking between you and quadsas which one is more likely mafia. At this point, I would probably pick you. I do not know quadsas personally so I cannot judge his character to determine his actions about my earlier post. That would allow me to determine if he is actually offended or if he was just being strategic.
It sounds like you are doubting kandes at this point which is quote surprising because I never considered him a target at all throughout the game. I was actually surprised the mafia kept me in the game and eliminated bbl as I said earlier. Why does it benefit them to take out bbl?
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jseadog1 wrote:
Why did I lynch knockout? Well, I think I realize how good he has been fooling us this whole time. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because I typically like playing the game with him. He is a good player. I think this game really proves that. The whole fight between me and quadsas, I can see knockout instigating things on the backend and being aligned with quadsas. I am fairly certain at this point. My 4 mafia members are as follows:
knockout, quadsas, trekbmc, ???
1) I'm not sure how you think that this game proves that i am a good player based on the game so far without knowing my role?
2) I struggle to see how the fight between you and me has something to do with me?
3) You seem to be quite sure that quadsas and me are a team together. Would you say that it's more likely that i'm mafia without quadsas than quadsas mafia without me?
1) The statement was assuming you were mafia. So if you are town, I stand corrected.
2) Fight between me and quadsas not you
3) I said "I can see" originally which means it would make sense to me if that ends up being the case. As to answer your last question, it sounds like you are asking between you and quadsas which one is more likely mafia. At this point, I would probably pick you. I do not know quadsas personally so I cannot judge his character to determine his actions about my earlier post. That would allow me to determine if he is actually offended or if he was just being strategic.
It sounds like you are doubting kandes at this point which is quote surprising because I never considered him a target at all throughout the game. I was actually surprised the mafia kept me in the game and eliminated bbl as I said earlier. Why does it benefit them to take out bbl?
I'd say you were the most unlikely person to be killed tonight (together with me i guess)
- id say you dont have a good reputation for finding mafia (which usually makes it tough to read you as mafia)
- as long as you are alive and quadsas is splitting the vote by voting you no matter what, that helps the mafia massively because a lynch-or-lose day with a player like that (whether he is town or mafia) is tough to win. At that point we basically have to hope that one of you is mafia.
There is no particular reason why taking out bbl doesnt make any sense imo. You and quadsas are occupied with each other, people already announced that id be next lynch target yesterday and trekbmcs silence is benefitting the mafia. Jaxika has not contributed as well. Kandes, Bikex, df_trek and hillis were the only other options that really seem to make sense and surely there is mafia amongst them as well. Could be that bbl was on the right track with some of his thoughts or that the mafia feared that croatia wasnt the doctor and didnt want to go with a more obvious target (which would be Bikex or Kandes i guess unless they are mafia themselves)
Did a couple of isolation reads in the evening. Posting these in one bulk since i wanted to see if someone else tries to activate the conversation in the meantime.
df_trek - didnt realize how high his posting volume has been throughout the game. My impression was that he posted lots and lots on day 1 and quieted down afterwards. this was kinda wrong.
- the way he moderated the end of day 1 looks very instinctive / natural
- early day 2: tries to talk down suspicions because of sammyts kill being done in a very backhanded / under the radar way (#211). Not making a big deal of defending a strong protown player looks really good to me. Only later goes against it stronger once the discussion continues to focus on that.
- day 2: interacted with lots of players, questioned guys, shared reads, but sticked his votes to inactive players and kept them until the end of the day (wasnt there the final hours (announced)).
- a lot of his more recent posts seem to be less focussed on trying to learn new things instead of just commenting things and there were quite a few posts that felt rather empty
- he seems to be quite bound on lynching me today. But i feel like he focusses too much on a single action instead of looking at the entire thing
e.g.
df_Trek wrote:
Also your post #285 enlighten me on what I forgot to analyze: what happened on 2-2-2 vote situation, this can be unfortunately hard now that many players at that time could also be offline and now we can't check it again...
I still wait for an analysis on this situation since it probably should be important in trying to read me.
- the only recent time that he delivered lots of thoughts on players outside the focus was directly after kandes expressed doubts about him which i dont think is a particularly good sign for him
Overall, i'm leaning protown, mostly due to his behaviour in the beginning . His more recent posts don't make me believe him as much. He could well be the active member in a trio with 2 rather silent ones (trekbmc + X ?) But i dont think i'm gonna vote for him today.
kandes
- day 1: only argued about game strategy, no reads, lynch noone
- day 2: very silent until the :59 post. doesnt vote because he gets online too late but has 30 minutes to make a long post (in the spoiler)
Spoiler
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
First of all everyone who's wanting more action from me is essentially right, but once more there wasn't really some time for me to do more than following your posts since Thursday, but that will change as the busy time is over now.
I try an analysis of what's going on in my opinion as long as I'm still able to, but it's possible I have to stop in between because of the end of the day (sorry for that if it will happen).
So in no particular order (and not very decisive from my side, as I don't see any clear reads, though others of course may contradict):
bikex
Got more involved on Day 2, and I have a feeling (but no time to search all his posts) that I should have a deeper look at him. But that could also be because I haven't see him play before. As I said, it's a gut feeling and no clever reasoning by now.
knockout
On of the hardest reads in town. He's active as ever, it seems he invests lots of time and effort in the game, but what he really contributes will only come out when the first mafia player was found.
jseadog
I would never be absolutely sure about his alignment because of his playing style (especially in the games I followed). But as I recall it from the "debriefing" from Mafia VIII, he played the whole game as mafia (mostly out of suspicion) without ever actually saying he was town or lying about his alignment. Add his rule-changing post (though I dislike the mix-up with the real world) and I would give him some trust for now.
On the other hand it could be a monster-bluff from him, counting on jandal clarifying the rules (so he has a way out of his promise) which he himself implied/suggested. I think him at least capable of taking that risk and won't clear him from any suspicion in the future.
df_trek
It's like with knockout, but with shorter posts. Hard to judge until we know something about who's mafia for sure.
marcovdw
I don't quite understand why the lynch-train started on him and not one of the other less active players. But maybe this non-understanding comes from some of his posts which were about things I had in mind too (like that there's no real tell on anybody particular, though there might be some triangles with one mafia in it).
ryant
I treat him as confirmed pro-town, so nothing to argue about him.
But: I do recall something like he could be one of the neighbours (is that right, ryan?). In this case it could well be that the other neighbour (if mafia) influences him to some extend in an anti-town way. So while we could trust ryans motivation in general it could be necessary for us (and for him) to think about his actions and reads (in the extent they could be influenced).
If my memory got me wrong, I apologize to ryan and ask everyone else to ignore those thoughts.
bbl
I think it's possible that he and Croatia are both town, especially as their quarrel cooled town quickly when they got their misunderstandings right. This seems to me like something two townies would do: Get something wrong, think that's a read, argue strongly, get it out of the way, go on. No guarantee still.
Croatia
See bbl for now (time's running).
jaxika
I think there is no real read on him possible right now. Seems like a rookie who wants to get into the game slowly, but this could also be a tactic used by the more experienced mafia members.
quadsas
Less active than last time, but occasionally his poking on some flaws (or just bad formulations) pop up. I tend to see this more as a sign he wants to stay alive longer than last time than that he's mafia, though this could well go hand-in-hand.
hillis
One of the more quiet ones. I remember one longer analysis form him, but really there's not much to judge him about.
trekbmc
I think his luck on Day 2 is that he submerged and got himself out of the focus. It will work for him today but he will have to be active on Day 3 or the next lynch-train is probably at him.
He explains this post with wanting to get his thought out as a fear of a nightkill. But i dont see any important reads here that would be lost as its just a collection of different ways to say "i have nothing to judge him on". The calm to make such a post makes me believe that he might have known that the voting doesnt matter as its between two townies or that he didnt want to be registered with the deciding vote as he could still have changed the outcome. He claims he didnt see the recent action and i believe him with that but i think that only covers the power role claim and not the voting situation as it was super obvious even when he allegedly started his post that it would be a very close voting.
- His posts are very good strategy wise and i like the way he comes to the conclusion that i'm protown but he did the bare minimum in looking for mafia himself in the early days. #441 was the first post that i liked a lot in that regard.
- I refer to my post 454 for my thoughts why i dont like linking his identity to mine.
I dont trust him but i dont see him as scummier than hillis.
quadsas - There have been a couple of minor differences to last game by him but i dont want to evaluate them because the intention to survive is regardless of the assignment
- i cant get a proper read from his play on the earlier days.
- i struggle to judge going insane after jdog. On the one hand it seems like a good mafia strategy to focus on one player and one player only while the insults he used went way too far to not make it personal which might lead to some sort of policy lynch on him. Not sure if a mafia member would deliberately post in that manner - if he continues to play jdog-vote only then it forces us to decide between him and jdog because the town cannot afford to split its vote in a lynch(mafia)-or-lose situation. And i trust jdog more atm.
Not on top of my mafia list but we might be forced to lynch him after the next misslynch.
jdog
I consider him protown.
- I like the way he changed his mind the last two (game) days (well, i didnt like the thoughts but i believe him to be protown)
- I feel like the reads in the early phases developed quite naturally
- His trust call adds to that behaviour
hillis - very quiet and doesnt post a lot, but looking through his posts there are a couple things that i really dont like
- " im risking my good name and reputation as i say knockout is pro-town in my opnion". #127: I have a bit of a problem with this because this seems far too early to make such a statement about me. Also seems a bit like trying to link up with me as i suspected kandes to do earlier today.
- I dont like how he comments early in the days: "Not what i had expected from the night" when sammy got killed (#202), "That was exactly not what we needed right now" after the Croatia lynch (349) "Well, that sucked!" when Marco was proven town (438). This sort of complaining really looks like he want to highlight that the results are not in his favor.
- #292 is his big read overview once the suspicion got louder that mafia was mostly amongst quieter ones on day 1. Way too many non-reads there so it looks a lot like he was just trying to stay alive by increasing his activity
- at no point does he try to push anyone outside of the current suspects. He just seems to be content with whatever happens
this:
hillis91 wrote:
Im keeping my vote for now. However, i do sincerely belive that one of knockout or Marco is mafia, not both though. So this is a crucial vote for us. The next day will be rather clear, voting wise, for me.
If that's your opinion, would you care to explain how your vote will be clear the next day if the one lynched tonight proves to be a mafia member?
This might have been an unintentional tell that he already knew we'd be getting a protown kill. I also don't like how the flip doesnt seem to have changed anything for him. I sometimes tend to overreact for too heavy to new details like the protown assignment of a lynch target and i struggle to see that from him. #438 seems like there have been no new thoughts since this post (compare with jdog as an example for the opposite).
He really doesnt look good at all, would fit to early thoughts about silent users being suspicious. Definitely want to hear all your thoughts about this. For now:
@ fair enough your point on me, knock, in last days I lost interest to go deeper on many situation because I was very firm on my reads. I saw also days flowing with no activity at all, and this didn't stimulate me to post something new, but at this point I'm quite scared to get a wrong read and bring with me some mafia members helping another townie lynch.
About Quadsas stuff, if we get a misslynch today I don't think it's agood idea to solve it in the next day, because it can be that we are going to lynch another townie based on some readings that are not linked directly to the game, if we have to do that I prefer to solve it now.
On 2-2-2 situation the fact that we don't know your and trekbmc's alignment doesn't help to get a good read about that. But I think that on that situation is not unlikely that none of the 3 members with 2 votes are mafia, because I would expect someone to interfere and bring that situation safe for the mafia involved. Actualy the one who moved the balance was ryant and he is found pro-town. This is fairly a good point for you knockout (and trekbmc). Yes, I said we couldn't know who was online or not, but if a mafia member was in danger, I would expect at least another mafioso online to check the situation and looking at the hours it unfolded, maybe no mafia members were involved in that trio.
df_Trek wrote:
Yes, I said we couldn't know who was online or not, but if a mafia member was in danger, I would expect at least another mafioso online to check the situation and looking at the hours it unfolded, maybe no mafia members were involved in that trio.
I have also to say that being a 2-2-2 situation, just your presence was enough to check it, easily shifting from one to another to get a 3-1-2 situation.
I don't know how to judge it.
Your vote on hillis: I think if you are pro-town is the proper one, you need to start a train longer than yours, and probably if I would to take a look outside knockout/kandes, I would vote him, his game never stepped up likewise the clearness of the city, for sure he seems one of the players who never tried to do something more to exit from this foggy situation.
If you are mafia, not knowing hillis alignment it's hard to read, but can be likely the proper one as well, if he is mafia too you just bring a good point to one or another, if he is city for the same reason i stated before.
So this vote isn't something that can bring us a clear idea on your alignment.
df_Trek wrote:
About Quadsas stuff, if we get a misslynch today I don't think it's agood idea to solve it in the next day, because it can be that we are going to lynch another townie based on some readings that are not linked directly to the game, if we have to do that I prefer to solve it now.
What's your logic behind this? Is it because you think that it would improve the decision making of the town as the mafia has to remove one potential misslynch from the town?
I guess I'd support a quadsas train today too but i'd prefer lynching hillis today as his posts look more scummy on its own. Not sure how to solve the quadsas situation myself though
knockout wrote: - if he continues to play jdog-vote only then it forces us to decide between him and jdog because the town cannot afford to split its vote in a lynch(mafia)-or-lose situation. And i trust jdog more atm.
Just because I feel uncomfortable to leave the decision between jseadog and quadsas on the last opportunity of the town. There is not to much reasoning behind this.
I'm not sure we really need to solve it today, but since you wrote this, I took it in consideration.
Ok, if I vote now there are still 4 people who didn't cast his lynch yet. Let see what's going to happen if we get a tie now
Lynch Hillis
I really have no idea how carry on further analysis, I need some new points between inactive players, because I'm sure someone is hiding himself between them.
knockout wrote:
Bikex appears very protown to me. He plays a very direct game, every message has an intention. I dont like that he seemed quite focussed on my activity right from the beginning but i'd say it's more paranoia against "one of the strongest players" (his words) than bad faith.
@Bikex: I would like to hear more thoughts about scenarios where I'm townish. Just assume for a bit that I'm protown, where would you look for guys that are mafia alligned?
To be honest, I'm less convinced that you are mafia than I was yesterday. Your analytic posts you are putting out now are very helpful for the town, especially for people like me that do not want to dig through all the posts again. However this obviously could be part of your strategy to make yourself seem trustworthy again and deceive the town about the other players that are possibly aligned with you. And I don't doubt that you would be able to come up with these posts if you were not a townie.
I'll try to answer your question.
Hypothetically, if you are not mafia it would probably be best to look at how people have handled the situation with you.
In that case kandesbunzler tieing his fate to yours definitely seems like a suspicious move, like you yourself explained as well. Also his voting behavior would be much more alarming than it was before to me already. He almost apologized for voting to lynch Marco and said something similar to him believing Marco and you both being townies. This could be an indicator of him knowing that this was the case and not being linked to a mislynch. And before that already was the non vote when it was between Croatia and Marco.
Then there is also hillis' post that you highlighted in your previous post. That seems indeed like a strange statement and also he didn't want to clarify it when asked about it.
These are both actions that could be seen as preparing for you being revealed as a protown player. However, assuming you are a townie, for both of them I struggle to see why they would choose lynching Marco over you. Wouldn't you be seen as the player that should be removed preferably by the mafia?
Looking at it I guess if you were a townie I would probably agree with large parts of your analysis, which does not add much to the discussion. I am wondering why you are asking me this question right now. Either you are a townie and want me to consider that scenario more so I would get on the right path and maybe you think that I might be night-killed after I appear to be a more trusted townie right now and want my thoughts to stand after you turn out protown after being lynched. The other option is that you are trying to deceive me.
If we decide wrong about your fate today, it will have either way strong implications on our overall chance to win the game. If you are no mafia and we lynch you, we will loose one of our best analytical players and obviously can not do another mislynch. If you are mafia and we keep you alive, I guess it is likely that you will make it to the end of the game.
I hope I have some more time tomorrow to think about it, but to be honest I have a hard time trusting you. Essentially it was also you who drove the lynch train on marco (even if you backpaddled a little bit). For a mafia member this could already be a great coup after at the beginning of the day it looked like you would be the next one lynched. If you are one and survive even longer now, it would probably turn out a little bit embarrassing for us.
