Another day started with only few actions (most of them short votes). I still think that’s always a bad sign for the town. So I will go for a bigger analysis on what I think of the players left and who I see as possible mafia. After we successfully (-> sarcasm, just in case) eliminated 3 townies (including at least one power role, probably the doctor) by ourselves and lost 3 others at night we’re now at a 6-3 ratio, so it really is time for everyone (including me) to get back some action.
So I will take every player into account, especially regarding what speaks for them being mafia.
Spoiler
After writing all this, I feel a bit like a paranoid conspiracy theorist, but to be honest that’s what all the plain townies do.
bikex
I really find him hard to judge. He doesn’t post that much, sometimes only short posts, but sometimes longer analytical ones. I really would like to read more of the latter ones, because if he’s town, I think we will need him.
On the other side he could well be mafia, for he had not put himself in the focus right now, thus he was not taken into account by anyone. As a mafia tactic, this would be perfect. But as I said, he’s hard to judge and surely not one of my prime suspects right now.
df_trek
Spoiler
df_Trek wrote:
Let's start with an analysis of the lynch on day 3. Both Marco and knockout seemed good opportunities to me, but the fact Marco figured out to be pro-town it's very important to see how it unfolded. In last hours of the day soke players voted for Marco, overcoming knockout.
There's one player fhat more than others was on the wrong side in both day 2 and 3, it's Kandes.
I was wondering if he could do something better on day 2 after Croatia's call, now he was decisive on saving my most suspicious player knockout.
Now this lead me to think that at this point Knockout and Kandes could be my most likely mafia couple (+one between low-active players)
When I first read this, df_trek instantly became my prime mafia suspect. Some hours (and thoughts) later it’s a bit less clear. I reread his posts from Day 3 on and found one or two with a deeper analysis, most of the others were rather short ones. I know he’s usually someone who’s not as much in the focus as others (like knockout) and gets to the middle and late game without too much questioning him. He could be a well-meaning townie trying to find a sense in what’s going on, especially if the mafia mostly hides and is mostly found between the quiet players, thus letting the more active townies make their wrong conclusions and kill each other one by one. But he could also play the misleading part of the mafia (he did this well back in Mafia VIII). His conclusion made my sirens ring for two reasons: 1) It put me in danger (no use to deny that). 2) As I know I’m town and am not so sure about knockout being mafia as most others (see the knockout part of this post for more explanation), I mistrust any conclusions indicating we’re both mafia. This may well be a build up to get rid of me (maybe even today, as knockout already got away some times) and later harvest all the distrust against knockout, ending the game with his lynch on Day 5.
In case knockout is mafia, this could also be a build-up for lynching me on Day 5, after getting trust from the others, and end the game on Day 6.
Therefore I still have df_trek on my list as a mafia suspect, though I’m not as sure as this morning (German time).
hillis
Spoiler
hillis91 wrote:
Well, that sucked!
We were wrong about Marco and now BBL is gone in the night.
Like i said last day, either Marco or Knockout has to be mafia. Theirfor, im doing what i said i would. Lynch Knockout
I don’t like hillis’ actions the last Days. Sure, it’s fine to have some suspects (and possibly strong reads) and to stand to his words. But I can’t stop to find it suspicious that he doesn’t seem to take new aspects and suspects into account or sharing his analysis. Especially the upper post could well be a sign hillis is just searching for a reason to justify incessantly going after knockout. So he doesn’t have to post his thoughts, because his vote is carved in stone for 2 Days, which will be especially nasty if knockout proofs to be pro-town too. In that case hillis will have been covered for two days without further explanation and we would have lost 4 townies in the same time, extremely reducing the chances for the town. This line of thought makes him one of my biggest mafia suspects.
jaxika
Spoiler
Day 1:
jaxika wrote:
Hey. Because its my first game in this format (forum game and none of my native languages ) i sit back for a time and just watch what peoples post.
Ill tried to see what is the logic behind the (longer) posts. As i feel now, clarly some Mafia members already posted and want to make fog about the things.
Strange, that (despite the licnh vote against me), i think who wants to avoid the everyday (or first day) lynch , are suspicious.
jaxika wrote:
It was a fun reading through all the posts. One way or another, most of the reasonings have our own rights. All in all i have no clue (at the moment) who can be townie or maffia.
BUT ... its very strange that trekbmc jumping on with me with the same reasoning (with few differences) as sammyt93 a little bit earlier. I understanded sammys aim, so no needed another warning. But if you can accuse somebody with a fictional reasoning (the warning have made already) thats suggests something.
After day 1 I maintain my suspicions about Trekbmc. He didn't added any more ön day 2, staying in low radar, but i know he is a smart guy.
About day 2 happenings. I think one of the Croatia, jseadog, Bbl trio is maffia. But the puzzle didn't fullfill to meg clearly. But if I need tó choose one scenario , then I think jseadog is the wrong guy, Bbl was misleaded amd Croatia wrongly accused.
Lynch jseadog
Day 3:
jaxika wrote:
For me its clear that one of the Croatia-lynchers is mafia .. or two of them ... bit wich one?
And dont forget, ryant voted hillis ...
quadsas wrote:
Anyone willing to go back and count the votes? seems pretty even
hillis -> marco
jseadog -> quadsas
bikex -> knockout
quadsas -> jseadog
marco -> knockout
knockout -> marco
df_Trek -> knockout
You can switch
Lynch marco
Day 4:
jaxika wrote:
First impressions...yesterday both of Marco and Bbl wanted Knockout dead... Now they are dead... Coincidence?
That’s the kind of posts we get from jaxika (technically it’s all he posted right now). Mostly short ones with no real analysis from him. Even for a newbie the time to hide away should be gone by now. If you’re town, you must add to the conversation! It’s of no use to shoot out these one-liners because they’re only suggesting things without explaining them. That’s not helping (at best) and highly suspicious because it seems to show some activity and thinking without letting the town benefit from the actual thoughts.
Therefore I think jaxika could well be mafia, playing the quiet part in the trio. This would fell fit to him as he’s playing for the first time, so staying quiet reduces the danger of flaws and seems plausible at the same time.
jdog
Spoiler
jseadog1 wrote: Lynch Marcovdw. I agree that knockout is playing a little more hesitantly this game but it's not a big enough difference to warrant him as being a mafia member. I also agree with key points above that Marco has been much less active than knockout. I understand that knockout could be steering the conversation to his advantage but there has been so much going on. Imagine if 4 mafia members were the 4 most inactive guys? Would not be a horrible strategy imo
jseadog1 wrote: LYNCH KNOCKOUT. Easy decision. Between him and quadsas. Bbl was the ill other target that was killed. Bad move by mafia. He would have been a contender today.
I would really like to know how you got from “knockout could be mafia (or it could be the quiet ones as well)” to “lynching knockout is a no-brainer” in the given time and regarding the discussion (or non-discussion) between these posts. Sure, nearly everyone’s after knockout right now, but why are you?
Plus I don’t like the last part about bbl getting nightkilled by the mafia being a bad move. This sounds nasty to me, as I didn’t have the impression that bbl would have been a contender today. Maybe I’ve missed some vibes in the Day 3 action, but on the other side there was not that much action (especially regarding bbl) at Day 3 that seems to support your conclusion.
I also don’t really understand why this post should have been of use back then. Sure, jdog and quadsas posted a lot, but most of these posts were about fighting each other. df_treks post mostly (but not entirely) were short ones, as well as bbls. So what do we really learn from that post count?
PS: I understand I repeatedly complain about the quiet players and don’t post that often myself, but I know what time, work and thought I put into those few but mostly long posts, so I hope I have acquired a certain right to don’t count myself to the quiet ones.
Altogether, I still have my doubts about jdogs alignment. I really hope he’s town, for that’s the only way his one certain post stays unfortunate and doesn’t get nasty. But if a player could do such an aggressive move as mafia, I would think it’s jdog. Plus he fooled me (and all the others) back in Mafia VIII with another (though less) aggressive move early in the game as far as I remember.
So there’s not really trust, but mostly hope he actually is town.
knockout
Here I will make an exception from my “Why could he be mafia?”-approach, simply because that’s what most of you do anyway in knockouts case. I know I put my fate to his more and more, but I really find it objectionable that nearly everyone who’s active seems to see knockout as his prime (or one of his prime) mafia suspect.
Surely it could be that I’m the only one who misses the obvious. But I rather think that the fact knockout was on the lynching-shortlist every single day is more of a sign he was selected as the scapegoat by the mafia early in the game. He was skeptically looked at in every Mafia-game I took part in (or followed) on this site because he’s active all the time and takes the lead of the discussion (willingly or not). It seems quite likely to select him as a natural choice of “Who’s mafia and tries to deceive us?” without any specific arguments, just because he’s knockout. I simply can’t see what makes knockout so much more suspicious than any other player who got wrong on Whaglon, Croatia or marco.
I don’t want to say he really is town for I don’t know his alignment. But I deeply distrust any suspicion that is so in unison, just because it is in unison. That highly appears to me to be more of a sign the mafia wants him dead than anything other. Plus it prevents us from discussing what’s going on with an open mind.
quadsas
As I interpret his actions, he’s effectively out of the game (at least until jdog is gone). The bad thing about this is we have no real chance to judge him correctly by his actions now, especially as he already played quadsas-style (thus poking here and there, judging by “flaws” or hints he didn’t really want to explain).
trekbmc
As for now essentially the same as with quadsas (though with less enigmatic posts).
@jandal:
Would the replacement / modkill rule apply only if trek misses two days in a row or is he already in danger of being replaced / modkilled if he doesn’t post on Day 4 (for he’s been warned before)?
trekbmc technically posted on Day 3 so he is not in danger of being eliminated if he does not post today. Also, if my numbers are right, we have to get a mafia member today or the game is over. Correct me if I am wrong.
Why did I lynch knockout? Well, I think I realize how good he has been fooling us this whole time. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because I typically like playing the game with him. He is a good player. I think this game really proves that. The whole fight between me and quadsas, I can see knockout instigating things on the backend and being aligned with quadsas. I am fairly certain at this point. My 4 mafia members are as follows:
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
Kande .... Yout analyzing about me is wrong ... May be dftrek is right about you being mafia ... After yesterday its clear for most of us that knockout is very likely mafia... And you want to defend hím.
Im 90 percent sure that knockout and (may be) Kande are maffia
But if IM wrong (that 10 percent), then the another scenario is that the three members who jumped át Knockout almost one after one are the three maffia ( its a little chsnce, sorry guys, but needed to say because its logical).
You are right, my mistake. I thought for some reason we had enough players in this edition to have 4. That idea was tossed around at one point. Ignore what I said about us losing the game then. To me, that makes sense of why we have not gotten anyone yet and I would not be surprised if the 3 I named were the 3 mafia.
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
Surely it could be that I’m the only one who misses the obvious. But I rather think that the fact knockout was on the lynching-shortlist every single day is more of a sign he was selected as the scapegoat by the mafia early in the game. He was skeptically looked at in every Mafia-game I took part in (or followed) on this site because he’s active all the time and takes the lead of the discussion (willingly or not). It seems quite likely to select him as a natural choice of “Who’s mafia and tries to deceive us?” without any specific arguments, just because he’s knockout. I simply can’t see what makes knockout so much more suspicious than any other player who got wrong on Whaglon, Croatia or marco.
Would you think that the mafia actively tried to "scapegoat" me or do you think that it is just a natural process from townies getting paranoid that the mafia can hide behind and the mafia just didnt try to stop it?
I simply can’t see what makes knockout so much more suspicious than any other player who got wrong on Whaglon, Croatia or marco.
Have you even read the last few pages?
It’s not about being wrong about them but not acting when he was in a position to save Croatia after his power role claim. I‘m sure a town knockout would have switched his vote here more likely than not. Maybe you are so defensive about him because essentially you made the same „mistake“
Mod post:
A player getting replaced/modkilled happens after any two days of inactivity, not necessarily consecutively. What this means is that yes, trekbmc is in danger if he ever has a no-post day from now on.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
I simply can’t see what makes knockout so much more suspicious than any other player who got wrong on Whaglon, Croatia or marco.
Have you even read the last few pages?
It’s not about being wrong about them but not acting when he was in a position to save Croatia after his power role claim. I‘m sure a town knockout would have switched his vote here more likely than not. Maybe you are so defensive about him because essentially you made the same „mistake“
It was literally four (!) minutes before the deadline.
Which power role could it be?
Politician? No. We already found ours.
Detective and Tracker? Surely those roles would add their read from the first night? At least i think Croatia as either role would be smart enough to realize that he might not survive till the next day (lynch or night kill) and add the read from the first night so that we can at least use the information even if he dies.
Doctor: Can i quote trekbmc here:
The power of the doctor is lost once he claims and after knowing the death of the doctor the mafia can kill whoever they want each night instead having to fear the doctor save. So i generally agree with trek on this:
trekbmc wrote: the doctor should usually not claim even if they are on the verge of being lynched!
On the other side: Does that claim make sense from a mafia perspective? Hell yeah!
A mafia member claiming a power role last minute in this exact situation has absolutely nothing to lose through it (except maybe basically confirming marco as protown after the flip).
He was almost certain to die so if someone panics and changes the vote, they achieve a misslynch and win a day towards their win condition. Even if he gets counterclaimed the next day, that chance of survival through a claim is much larger (imo) than the chance of getting one final vote against the other one.
I've also kinda done that myself in Mafia V. Yes, it was mostly trolling when i wrote "Doctor out" to end my last post when it was basically 100% sure that i'd die in the next couple of minutes but there was at least a tiny part in my that hoped for a dumb doctor to counter claim. (yes, i know the differences between both cases)
Part of my read on Croatia was also that i felt the marco train being pushed artificially to save Croatia (or others in suspicions) so i also was affected by confirmation bias and deciding within just 4 minutes which case is more likely is very tough to do.
Was it a mistake? In hindsight, obviously yes. But if the same situation would happen again next time? I think i'd probably stick to my vote again (depending on how i rate the other suspects). If it happened like 2h earlier in the day? Yeah i probably had changed my vote (although no idea to where)
@trekbmc: Please dont make a super short post like yesterday. Either come back with a good overview of your thoughts or dont come back at all and give a replacement a chance to help us.
Reading Kandes post I found many points where I disagree, I'll just follow his order of the names, and not by importance, writing in particular when I have different opinions.
Bikex - atm I don't find him hard to judge, he is the player where I have more townie vibe from. It's true that he posts quite rarely, but when he does it, he's never trivial, in particular in last days where doesn't miss to take a side, and I often agreed what he said.
df_Trek (me) - It's not a good indicator of a mafia member just because being suspected, in particular in this game where we passed three days without a good track on at least a mafia member, now on day 4 I just tried to build an hypotesis, that can be confirmed just knowing knockout alignment. Maybe I should have specify this, but Knockout remains my main suspect, and in case he will be found mafia I pointed Kandes as the second. You can't point to a player just because you disagree on knockout alignment, and I made a link (imo quite evident) between them, with Kandes saving knockout in the last vote.
hillis - I agree he is not playing as a good townie should do, but atm not in my first suspects.
jaxika - almost totally agree with Kandes here, but if my thoughts are confirmed, the fact he is somehow taking this side too can free him from suspicions.
jseadog - also here I mostly agree, but atm looking what happened I would focus somewhere else.
knockout - I have opposite sensation, Bikex's post #447 express quite well what I think too, anyway I told what I think about him in many posts on day 3 and firsts of this day 4. Moreover I want to add that in past games, I was more inclined to trust him "just because he is knockout", than to distrust.
quadsas - A thought I have in mind is that a so strong reaction to jseadog declaration could be paired with a player damaged by that, if it's true so a mafia member, but we have nothing in particular against/pro him.
trekbmc - at this point his actions in day 1 could really be meaningless, let's see if he will back or whatever will happen, atm I agree we can't judge.
Kandesbunzler - Everything I have to say about him is posted before. If there won't be surprises I'm not going to vote him, but knockout, and according on knockout alignment I will do my considerations (already expressed).
After spendig several hours for my post earlier in the day I'll try to write a shorter one (maybe more tomorrow).
First of all, I fear the town will be on its first no-mislynch situation on Day 5 (if knockout is town; with a town-mafia-ratio of 4-3) or on Day 6 (if knockout actually is mafia, for you already seem to have your plans ready in that case and I will most probably be the next lynch then, reducing the ratio to 3-2). In each case chances are good we / you (depending on the case) have some mislead or inactive townies with you, while we / you can't afford any misjudging. I think in both cases the town will lose pretty plainly.
Spoiler
I feel like back at the end of Mafia VIII when knockout had to decide who to save at night and I were the only townie who knew I was town and he would have to save me. Just the same feeling of an unpreventable town loss right now.
To the events of the end of Day 2:
I made my point on that clear earlier (#350). There's nothing to add on my behaviour, because it is what happened. I can't do anything about it now (probably just couldn't have acted otherwise if in the situation again), if you don't trust me about it, there's simply no chance that anything I say will change your mind.
The thing is, the more I think about it, the more I think nearly anything I would have done would now be put against me. A little speculation (I don't think it's that unrealistic): Croatia claims in the last 4 minutes of the day, I'm online at the time (getting my post out) and get it done to put a vote on marco in the seconds I have. marco is lynched and proves town. The mafia has some guts and lets Croatia survive that night (there are some players here I think would go this way). What would the town think? There will be someone who smells a framejob on marco (if no townie, there will be a mafia player), pointing at Croatia surviving the night and me for saving him (literally in the last second, what a coincidence...). I don't know who of us would be the first target, but I think at the end of Day 3 marco plus probably Croatia could have been dead as in the actual game, just in opposite order. I know it's a speculation, but I draw my conclusions here, just as you draw yours.
My lesson out of that: Don't be online at the end of the day, it most probably will be used against you. Better hide away, that increases your chances to survive (applies in general too).
Why I defend knockout:
Once again: I don't know if knockout is mafia or not. And I was aware from the beginning of my writing about his case that I most likely linked my fate to his. I just find that it doesn't benefit the town if everyone's at one person, as it doesn't get us any useful information (besides of knockouts alignment, at the cost of the nightkill and the lost townie). Any other mafia player will hide in between the town (or in general by not posting much) and be indistinguishable to the townies. If no one defends knockouts case, we won't get any real discussion at all (the second day in a row at least), and you all can judge for yourself who will benefit most from it. So I chose to be the devil's advocate, especially as I'm really not convinced knockout is mafia (and once again (... again): I'm not really convinced he's town either.).
I stated earlier (post #419) that I tend to think both marco and knockout are town and the mafia is fooling us. As literally no one else is willing to defend knockouts case, this makes my feeling to this interpretation even stronger. Every day (of those I played), when there was a clear suspect and an early decision (or even an early 1 vs. 1 situation), there was not a single mafia player involved (literally none, as I recall it). That makes me very wary of those situations.
My analysis from above leads me to the conclusion that knockouts death won't benefit the town, no matter if he's mafia or town (at least not now), but is of course depending on the premise that I'm town. This is naturally set for me (and maybe some town power-role plus the mafia), but if you're town you can't be sure and you have to decide if you accept this premise too. All I can give you is the posts I wrote (and write), and I think I willingly explained each of my actions (and hopefully my thoughts too). The rest is left to the town.
Judge by yourself if all that makes knockout and me a mafia-couple (Which would be really poor play, as in this case knockouts case was knowingly lost from Day 3 onwards and there's no need to die with him for me. Plus some power role should have survived until now and could easily have found the third mafia player by now. Game over, town wins.).
Everyone can read something different on players actions...for example there's a player going to be likely lynched, if he is suspicious and he is townie none is going to defend him, but if he is mafia soon or later someone is going to try to open new points hoping to divert ideas.
Actually this can be what's happening: start a lynch train on knockout -> pass some hours and nothing is moving on -> interferes a mafia partner.
Yes I agree that who interferes can be also a townie who think that if nothing is moving it could be that we are on the wrong one, but looking at past actions I think knockout is a good choice to try.
Also to say that kill knockout as mafia doesn't help the town to much is a wicked consideration, you prefer to cast a lynch vote between someone you have ambiguous feelings? I prefer to start on who is very suspicious.
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
And I was aware from the beginning of my writing about his case that I most likely linked my fate to his.
Of course, I appreciate that someone comes to my defense but i want to warn everybody of this thinking: Don't believe that you can assume that kandes and me necessarily have the same assignment. Just because I'm town, doesn't mean that kandes is town either.
Everyone and his grandmother can read the situation and knows that I'm the favourite to be lynched as of this moment. There are exactly four players of this game that know my assignment: I'm one of them and the other three are the mafia. If a mafia player would be able to link his fate succesfully to mine and be considered protown after my lynch ... victory of the mafia.
I'm not saying that kandes is mafia yet but he is definitely on my watch list and i think much more critically of his :59 post than previously since knowing that both marco and croatia are protown. I need to think a bit closer on that but i'll likely follow up with another post on this.
Based on marcos game i thought he had given up that day and saw jaxika as a potential mafia mate of him that bandwaggoned him to save himself. With marco proven as town i see him as protown again.
jaxika wrote:
Hey. Because its my first game in this format (forum game and none of my native languages ) i sit back for a time and just watch what peoples post.
Ill tried to see what is the logic behind the (longer) posts. As i feel now, clarly some Mafia members already posted and want to make fog about the things.
Strange, that (despite the licnh vote against me), i think who wants to avoid the everyday (or first day) lynch , are suspicious.
jaxika wrote:
It was a fun reading through all the posts. One way or another, most of the reasonings have our own rights. All in all i have no clue (at the moment) who can be townie or maffia.
BUT ... its very strange that trekbmc jumping on with me with the same reasoning (with few differences) as sammyt93 a little bit earlier. I understanded sammys aim, so no needed another warning. But if you can accuse somebody with a fictional reasoning (the warning have made already) thats suggests something.
After day 1 I maintain my suspicions about Trekbmc. He didn't added any more ön day 2, staying in low radar, but i know he is a smart guy.
About day 2 happenings. I think one of the Croatia, jseadog, Bbl trio is maffia. But the puzzle didn't fullfill to meg clearly. But if I need tó choose one scenario , then I think jseadog is the wrong guy, Bbl was misleaded amd Croatia wrongly accused.
Lynch jseadog
Day 3:
jaxika wrote:
For me its clear that one of the Croatia-lynchers is mafia .. or two of them ... bit wich one?
And dont forget, ryant voted hillis ...
quadsas wrote:
Anyone willing to go back and count the votes? seems pretty even
hillis -> marco
jseadog -> quadsas
bikex -> knockout
quadsas -> jseadog
marco -> knockout
knockout -> marco
df_Trek -> knockout
You can switch
Lynch marco
Day 4:
jaxika wrote:
First impressions...yesterday both of Marco and Bbl wanted Knockout dead... Now they are dead... Coincidence?
That’s the kind of posts we get from jaxika (technically it’s all he posted right now). Mostly short ones with no real analysis from him. Even for a newbie the time to hide away should be gone by now. If you’re town, you must add to the conversation! It’s of no use to shoot out these one-liners because they’re only suggesting things without explaining them. That’s not helping (at best) and highly suspicious because it seems to show some activity and thinking without letting the town benefit from the actual thoughts.
Therefore I think jaxika could well be mafia, playing the quiet part in the trio. This would fell fit to him as he’s playing for the first time, so staying quiet reduces the danger of flaws and seems plausible at the same time.
This came very shortly afterwards:
jaxika wrote:
Kande .... Yout analyzing about me is wrong ... May be dftrek is right about you being mafia ... After yesterday its clear for most of us that knockout is very likely mafia... And you want to defend hím.
Im 90 percent sure that knockout and (may be) Kande are maffia
But if IM wrong (that 10 percent), then the another scenario is that the three members who jumped át Knockout almost one after one are the three maffia ( its a little chsnce, sorry guys, but needed to say because its logical).
I clearly read this as someone who is still too naive and has never seen a mafia chat before. Could this be faked? Yeah i guess but i dont think if you would want to fake that you would want such an obviously bad take (sorry jaxika, but thats rarely how a group of mafia plays this).
It's difficult to include judgements from other parts of the site but i fully buy that jaxika would play the game similar to this as he is usually more of a lurker with few and short posts in story games like EPIC or ManGame. I don't think he is just "playing the quiet part". He looks protown to me.
df_Trek wrote:
Also to say that kill knockout as mafia doesn't help the town to much is a wicked consideration, you prefer to cast a lynch vote between someone you have ambiguous feelings? I prefer to start on who is very suspicious.
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
First of all, I fear the town will be on its first no-mislynch situation on Day 5 (if knockout is town; with a town-mafia-ratio of 4-3) or on Day 6 (if knockout actually is mafia, for you already seem to have your plans ready in that case and I will most probably be the next lynch then, reducing the ratio to 3-2). In each case chances are good we / you (depending on the case) have some mislead or inactive townies with you, while we / you can't afford any misjudging. I think in both cases the town will lose pretty plainly.
My analysis from above leads me to the conclusion that knockouts death won't benefit the town, no matter if he's mafia or town (at least not now), but is of course depending on the premise that I'm town.
I hope I made clear the problem starts with what will happen after knockout being lynched. I think we (more probably you, as I don't think I will have much influence left by then) will be in a no-mislynch situation in any case, the question is merely on which day. Once again, I don't see much odds the town can win in such a situation (especially if jdog is actually pro-town, regarding quadsas' constant voting on jdog, and more or less inactive players). As knockout seemingly lost trust to me by now too, I will probably be lynched after him regardless of his alignment. So I'm thinking if it would not be better for the town to lynch me first, as I know my alignment at least and the result may lead to some townies start thinking further than just "knockout is mafia, let's get rid of him". (I'll think about that over night, as I really consider this option, and not in a sulky way.)
And once again: knockout might well be mafia, but the confirmation of this will be just too costly for the town at the moment. If you're convinced he's mafia, you can still lynch him on one of the coming no-mislynch days.
I know it's my bad we got to this situation, as I wanted to strengthen my point of view that quick lynches are almost always bad for the town (something I experienced and preached since Day 3 of Mafia VIII, getting mostly ignored and resulting in a perfect 100% pro-town-lynches in the 2 and a bit games since) and thus created this dilemma (that maybe just I see right now) by bringing together knockouts fate and mine. Sorry about that.
LLDS wrote:
Sorry for being off-topic, is this Werewolf (Loupgarou), but in a strange, funny forum-adapated way?
Yeah it is. The idea to turn it into a forum game is nothing new. There are multiple forums dedicated to it (e.g. a Mafia World Championship with players from 100+ communities. Should be linked in one of the previous game threads here. Or just google "mafia forum game" for some of the larger communities for it). We play a couple of games every year and always look for more players. Try to sign up the next time a game thread is started
