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Ollfardh was bored and looked at the PCT leaders 2019
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-10-2019 10:20
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World Champion
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As always, we need to look back at last year:
https://pcmdaily....d_id=51897
I can't say I'm unhappy with my predictions, Baugnies had another monster season on the cobbles and Kudus surprised me as well, but in the end my top 3's in each category were rather accurate. So how did that translate in the rankings?
| Fighting for the title: | | 1 | Indosat (5) | | 2 | Iberia (7) | | Fighting for promotion: | | 3 | Spar (2) | | 4 | Kraftwerk (11) | | 5 | Meiji (12) | | 6 | Minions (14) | | 7 | Podium Ambition (6) | | 8 | Reddit (10) | | 9 | Popo4Ever (15) | | Safe mid-table: | | 10 | Fablok (4) | | 11 | Carrefour (20) | | 12 | Generali (1) | | 13 | Novatek (16) | | 14 | Ayubowan (8) | | Close to the danger zone: | | 15 | Philips (18) | | 16 | Carlsberg (21) | | 17 | Xero (14) | | 18 | Lierse (22) | | 19 | Repsol (3) | | 20 | Kulczyk (9) | | Fighting to stay in: | | 21 | Azteca (26) | | 22 | CycleYorkshire (19) | | 23 | Euskaltel (25) | | 24 | Netia (23) | | 25 | WCC (17) | | 25 | Nordstrom (24) |
Sadly to say not a single one correct and even some huge misses with Generali and Repsol proving depth is so very important. But let's try it again for 2019! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-10-2019 10:20
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Cobbles
If you spent your last money on a 78 cobbler to lead your team to glory, this is going to be a very disappointing season for you. The legend Danny Summerhill is back in the PCT this year, and he's going to win, with or without the help of Amadou Bakari. Races he won't win will see good chances for Joeri Stallaert, who win be nearly unbeatable if it comes to a sprint. I had to put last year's winner Baugnies only 5th, but can he surprise again?
| Cobbles | Rider | Team | | 1 | Danny Summerhill | Andorra | | 2 | Joeri Stallaert | Volvo | | 3 | Pieter Vanspeybrouck | Carlsberg | | 4 | Lukas Spengler | UBS | | 5 | Jerome Baugnies | Kulczyk | | 6 | Ruben Zepunkte | Minions | | 7 | Kenneth Vanbilsen | Lierse | | 8 | Michel Sibilla | Rakuten | | 9 | Vegard Breen | Delvaux | | 10 | Ricardo Ferreira | Campari |
Hills
Hills are hard to predict once again, as there's no one really standing above the rest here. A bit more mountain, sprint or stamina here and there could make the difference in the right races. I could have included even more riders like Gautier, Vakoc, Trofimov or even Betancourt (but not Waeytens, never Waeytens).
| Hills | Rider | Team | | 1 | Dimitri Claeys | Minions | | 2 | Tomohiro Kinoshita | Rakuten | | 3 | Wilco Kelderman | Philips | | 4 | Eduard Beltran | Swisslion | | 5 | Maurice Schreurs | Delvaux | | 6 | Ion Izagirre | Iberia | | 7 | Cesare Di Maggio | ENI | | 8 | Aleksandar Flugel | Kraftwerk | | 9 | Simon Yates | Desigual | | 10 | Jonathan Bellis | CycleYorkshire |
Stage races
You'd think having Pluchkin would be enough to promote? Think again! He's still here and ready to dominate once more. Tenorio should give him a decent fight this year though. Uran and Amador are next, but after that it will be close for the rest of the top 10.
| Stage Races | Rider | Team | | 1 | Aleksandr Pluchkin | Popo4ever | | 2 | Justo Tenorio | Desigual | | 3 | Rigoberto Uran | Minions | | 4 | Andrei Amador | UBS | | 5 | Ki Ho Choi | ENI | | 6 | Daniel Martin | Campari | | 7 | Tiago Machado | Andorra | | 8 | Natnael Berhane | ISA | | 9 | Primoz Roglic | Berg | | 10 | Louis Meintjes | CycleYorkshire |
Sprints
Same story for the sprints, where Degenkolb return to defend his title. Jonas Ahlstrand should give him a run for his money though. The PCT sprinter field is absolutely stacked again with some famous names not making the top 10 again: Boeckmans, Appollonio, Vantomme and Van Asbroeck to name a few.
| Sprints | Rider | Team | | 1 | John Degenkolb | Iberia | | 2 | Jonas Ahlstrand | Volvo | | 3 | Jacopo Guarnieri | Delvaux | | 4 | Lahcen Saber | Philips | | 5 | Rick Zabel | Desigual | | 6 | Ivano Lo Cicero | Europcar | | 7 | Oscar Alavino | Duolingo | | 8 | Mark Cavendish | Kraftwerk | | 9 | Gerald Ciolek | Swisslion | | 10 | Romain Vanderbiest | Carrefour |
Time trials
If you want another good bet, go for Jerome Coppel winning the time trials. Even when declining, he still has a huge edge over the rest of the field. I restricted this to one rider per team, but CycleYorkshire in particular has so many scoring options here.
| Time Trial | Rider | Team | | 1 | Jerome Coppel | Carrefour | | 2 | Luke Durbridge | CycleYorkshire | | 3 | Marcel Kittel | Valio | | 4 | Omar Fraile | Desigual | | 5 | Dominque Cornu | Duolingo | | 6 | Silvan Dillier | UBS | | 7 | Lucas Schadlich | Kraftwerk | | 8 | Phan Age Haugard | Volvo | | 9 | Mikhail Ignatiev | Delvaux | | 10 | Hugues Mottin | Andorra |
Edited by Ollfardh on 22-10-2019 12:36
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-12-2024 02:01
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-10-2019 10:22
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We'll throw it all in one ranking then. Like last year, I won't give exact points but rather groups of positions. I'll also throw in the disclaimer again, looking at leaders only is very flawed as it gives no indication of team depth and furthermore a bunch of guys just not making my top 10 could very well be great point scorers.
| My title favourite | | 1 | Minions | | Set for promotion | | 2 | Desigual | | 3 | Volvo | | 4 | Iberia | | In the promotion fight | | 5 | Delvaux | | 6 | Philips | | 7 | Rakuten | | 8 | Andorra | | 9 | UBS | | 10 | Popo | | Safe midtable | | 11 | ENI | | 12 | Swisslion | | 13 | Kraftwerk | | 14 | Carrefour | | 15 | Yorkshire | | 16 | Carlsberg | | 17 | Duolingo | | Fighting to stay in | | 18 | Campari | | 19 | Europcar | | 20 | Kulczyk | | 21 | Valio | | 22 | Lierse | | 23 | Isa | | Doomed | | 24 | Berg | | 25 | Xero | | 25 | Sauber |
Let's start at the bottom, no reason to worry for Xero and Sauber even though they didn't get a mention yet. Both just didn't make the cut in any category but it was very close. Last year I didn't give WCC any points, but they finished well above me at a safe 17th spot.
I placed myself 22th, where we ended last year. Could be expected as there were no major changes in my team. But it's all really close really between position 11 and 26. The top 10 should fight for the title, but Minions really stood out in my calculations so I make them my title favourite. With Claeys-Uran-Zepunkte they have a great potential, and even in sprints they can score with Vantomme and Drapac both not making the list, but they've sure won stages in the past!
Edited by Ollfardh on 22-10-2019 13:31
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 22-10-2019 20:53
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World Champion
Posts: 11406
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To be expected to have 0 points from you this year. Would have probably snuck Debesay into the cobbled top 10 myself though but wasn't ever expecting anyone else  I like to think that I am not doomed but there we go, we'll see 
And if Booker wanted less pressure after the last two predictions, he's got it here 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 22-10-2019 21:14
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Classics Specialist
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Oh I like this! Even though I think Machado may be overestimated here I really like the confidence put in for an 8th place 
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 22-10-2019 21:24
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Grand Tour Champion
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You certainly didn't underestimate us
Wouldn't call us title favorites, but I'm certainly flattered. Hope the pressure won't get to the Minions.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 22-10-2019 22:23
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World Champion
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Some interesting predictions. First of all it is nice to be in the hunt for promotion, as that was my goal.
I do think Kelderman, Kinoshita, Beltran and maybe more are better than Claeys tho. Dont get me wrong there will probably be times Claeys beats them, but his weak backups, low MO/ACC mean he's not as strong as his 83 Hil suggests imo compared to the 82 Hil guys. Lots of times that MO stat is important in the run up to the final climb in hill races on PCm18.
Then for stage racers, I dont personally think Choi is the 5th best stage racer in PCT, and Rafael Ries f.e isnt even in the Top 10 even though Uran who is slightly better in only a few key stats is 3rd.
Apart from a few disagreements I think it looks good though, and of course appreciate the effort you've put into this as predictions can be one of the most fun aspects of the mangame.
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| Booker |
Posted on 22-10-2019 23:25
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jandal7 wrote:
And if Booker wanted less pressure after the last two predictions, he's got it here
Oh hell yeah, relegate me Ollfardh! Do it, you won’t!
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| redordead |
Posted on 23-10-2019 07:25
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Posts: 4910
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Safe in midtable?! 
I think our chances of staying up are slim. Beltran needs to dominate if we are to achieve that.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 23-10-2019 09:25
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World Champion
Posts: 14590
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Jandal - Debesay was never going to make it in this field, George Bennett was much closer actually. Houle and Rowe will also score points as hybrids.
Yellow - After the top 4, it was a very close call so I think I may have overestimated you. Then again, Summerhill.
Marco - You already a good team and added Claeys and Vantomme. If you had a good planning and don't have to use you 2nd tier guys as leader too often, you'll win this.
Valverde - Now you're scaring me, I was assured PCM18 MO would have a limited impact before resiging Van Asbroeck and Vanbilsen. Reis just fell short because of his speed, but I see you point.
Booker - Don't worry, I'm sure Baugnies will beat Summerhill and Vanspeybrouck every other race
Red - Yeah, I have to agree with you, this ranking isn't perfect. Beltran will score big for you, don't worry about that. But if Ciolek fails (which PCT sprinters tend to do very often, I don't see hwo else will score for you.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 23-10-2019 09:48
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World Champion
Posts: 11406
Joined: 17-12-2014
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I’ll remember you talking smack about Debesay later in the season
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| redordead |
Posted on 23-10-2019 10:13
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4910
Joined: 18-10-2017
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I'm hoping Bilbao can score some as well, but otherwise the plan is to win all the KOM jersey's
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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