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Mafia VIII | Dumbtell or Scumtell?
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| knockout |
Posted on 13-04-2019 22:02
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Croatia looks like the obvious one. Both kanzler and df trek are possible as partner and for each of them croatia looked like the most likely partner yesterday already.
If we try to hit the goon first id say :
If the pairing is croatia & kandes then croatia is more likely to be the terrorist for the way he searched the spotlight.
If the pairing is df and croatia then id suspect it is df because croatia seemed to be willing to derail the waggon from aquarius to him (or at least said so).
That said this is very hard to predict because croatia is the one guy were you are far more likely to expect this super active style of play so the roles are probably more intuitive chosen anyway.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 13-04-2019 22:09
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Yeah, Croatia is looking like the obvious one here. Like i've stated several times, i got my eyes on kandesbunzler26. But maybe that is to easy, and that the partner is Df_trek.
But the vibe im getting now is that Crotia is mafia.
kandesbunzler26 is spotlighting df_trek as his partner. That makes me think that if kandesbunzler26 is mafia, he and Croatia has agreed that Croatia will fall on the sword and they'll try to frame df and bring him down with Croatia. If kandesbunzler26 that is.
Im very keen to hear what both df_trek and Croatia14 has as their Nr.1 suspect and why. Especially you Croatia, seeing you trying to frame knockout the entire game basicly. What do you have to say now?
And, after we have heard from Croatia and DF_Trek. I'd like to hear who everybody else thinks is the partner duo left. And then, who should get the hammer?
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-04-2019 00:23
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I think it might be interesting to look at the strategy over the different days that the mafia would have picked and how they have cooperated throughout the days under the assumption that we have the mafia group found:
Mafia Strategy Version 1 : Kanzler & Croatia & Aquarius
Day 1
Aquarius casts a vote for Kanzler (reason: new player) and quickly removes the vote again after his first reply. Interestingly, kanzler just replied to sammy who did the same.
Kanzler joins hillis waggon, casts the fourth vote (noone else has more than 2) which pushes it into lynch-dangerous numbers. Specifically mentions Aquarius as another inactive one but wants to put more pressure on a single person which goes a bit against his later tendency of voting off the leading waggon.
Croatia votes for jdog based on an observation by kanzler.
Lots of Aquarius and Croatia connections (mason claim...)
kandes doesnt want to lynch Aquarius based on an observation by Croatia, votes trekbmc (only other vote: Aquarius). Wants to move discussion about Aquarius to day 2: "This seems like a solid point to me, though following knockout it could be a well planned mafia move (from Aquarius and maybe croatia too). But I think this is a discussion for day 2."
kandes is missing on croatias comfortable lynches.
Croatia tries to move the waggon on Aquarius away from him, kandes dives low and stays off waggon to give croatia a chance to do so. Strategy would make sense for a mafia.
Day 2:
kandes suspects Croatia as his target #1 due to previous day action. One important reason: "I think this makes the whole "Aquarius made masons come out"-argument useless, despite I for example fell for it. Another hint at croatia who brought it up?" -> Deliberately missunderstanding a post by Aquarius to get corrected which in turn reduces the read on Croatia?
kandes votes for Croatia to make it 2:croatia 2:ryant but it looks like ryant is the clear lynch candidate at this point anyway.
Argument between kandes and croatia which looks fake according to jdog and i can see what he meant.
croatia quote: As kandesbunzler stated: Pressuring may help. If he'd only pressure the right suspects...
no more late pressure by kandes despite suspecting croatia the most.
kandesbunzler26 wrote:
As the day ends I take up the proposition someone made earlier and take a look forward:
If ryant turns out to be mafia (as most of us seem to think) it'll be no surprise if croatia will have a not so nice day 3.
On the other side, if ryant is town we will have a very interesting day 3. I tend to let croatia of the hook if that's the case for if he is mafia despite defending ryant this furiously, it is really well played. I think there will be some (sometimes not so) new suspects including me (for I argued against both ryant and croatia a lot), knockout (following ryants and croatias case against him) and ian (for the same reason), maybe all of the remaining players except the masons. Will be a interesting day in that case.
By the way: It is well possible we lynch a townie (mostly in good believe and/or stupidity to follow ryant) for only two of us know for sure if we are right until 8pm, but it's part of the game to err sometimes, though it is of course bitter for those who are mistakenly lynched. I hope we get back to a more no-nonsense tone the next day and don't forget that we play for fun (in our spare time).
This interesting quote. He couldnt wait till the end to turn the spotlight from croatia and this looks like he at least heavily suspected that the lynch goes against the town.
kandes is on croatias waggon without pushing it as the ryant looked more realistic to end deadly and once the day is over and kandes looks to move the pressure off croatia. Very realistic strategy for the mafia imo.
Day 3
kandes votes bbl, croatia likes this.
Croatia likes kandes amongst others based on his strong own opinions
kandes "tends to declare croatia pro-town" based on a weird "How much risk would this player has taken" analysis
Croatia:@kandesbunzler: While we agree on a lot of findings, I think your statements are quite weak. You seem to be very careful with your reads, a lot of times calming the fire of your statements while speaking them out.
Disagrees as knockout is far more suspicious than whatever kandes wrote
(kandes doesnt want to pick so he makes a vote on trekbmc for the whole purpose of not leaving the option for others open. Nothing to do with croatia but looks a bit ugly to me)
I dont like kandes' change of opinion here. Him and croatia are now suddenly best friends? Reason for the change: Apparently ryants pro-town status is enough for a 180? Possible mafia tactic, weird change of connection between the two if they were both pro townies
Day 4
croatia wants to push a knockout waggon
kandesbunzler wants to defend both trek and knockout waggons and look elsewhere (not stating yet who to vote instead)
(why is he defending trek when he has been on the trek waggon till the end of the previous waggon?)
Croatia:
right now I'm almost sure that df_trek and jseadog are townies, with kandesbunzler looking quite fine as well
kandes joins the movement of trusting hillis and voting off trek.
Croatia: At this point I'm quite confident that if Hillis, jseadog, df_trek and I cooperate well we got 4 townies that can win the game quite easily, no matter which thoughts the other 2+1 set up.
Why is kandes not on this list. I thought he was quite fine too?
Both of them got into the spotlight and distance themselves from each other as it looks impossible that both survive the next two lynches without actually trying to distance themselves from each other
Day 5
Kanzler tries to link hard with me and hillis. Makes rather useless analysis of final-votes-only.
No reply yet from Croatia
5 day verdict: This duo would make a ton of sense based on how they played. And it would make sense on every single day. This is a very strong case imo. Since the idea seems to be to sacrifice croatia I'd rather see a kanzler lynch today under the assumption that croatia goes on the block the next day. (Doesnt mean much because kanzler was much better hidden)
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 14-04-2019 00:55
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Number 1: Kandesbunzler26
Why: on how he is recidivous on say I'm playing under the radar, when I was on first line exposing myself as first promoter to lynch Ian and to firmly going against knockout (Yes both wrong ways, but actually there's more to try to drive out mafia in this behaviour). While he was almost all game long pointing at an inactive player (except on day 2 when he pointed something very far on what was going on that day with ryant situation), and brought nothing to the town, not an argument on someone that could reply nor a shred of idea if not lynch trekbmc to stimulate him.
Likely partner: jseadog, because the only other one is Croatia that I feel a lot more townie than him.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 02:07
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@knockout: Spot on!
@df_trek: I tend to agree on Kandes, but i can't see how you ended up with jseadog as his partner insted of Croatia. Jseadog was the third vote in on Aquarius on day 1.
@Croatia13: Where you at sir?
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 05:11
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hillis91 wrote:
I'd like to hear who everybody else thinks is the partner duo left. And then, who should get the hammer?
Since I'll be at an NHL Playoff game for much of Sunday I thought I would answer this now and get it out of the way. I will check in as much as possible but with driving and no service at the game I will be sparingly making appearances.
If I had to pick a partner for Croatia it would likely be kandes. There has been so much discussion between him and kandes looking back at it I previously said that 1 of the 2 of them must be mafia. I think it all went over my head and they are actually a team that is working together and have made it this far into the game.
What really hits the nail on the coffin for me is when knockout said this:
Croatia:
At this point I'm quite confident that if Hillis, jseadog, df_trek and I cooperate well we got 4 townies that can win the game quite easily, no matter which thoughts the other 2+1 set up.
Why is kandes not on this list. I thought he was quite fine too?
This would make 100% sense to do in an attempt to get the attention away from a possible pairing. If hillis would have died he could have gotten us all (3) on board to vote knockout and then they win regardless of what kandes did.
So who gets the hammer? Well, I honestly trust hillis and knockout at this point of the game to make that decision and as long as it were one of them 2 I think it would be great. Even though Croatia is my #1 target I notice that df_trek seems to be okay with lynching kandes and he is a common person at this point so using logic he would probably be my #1 if I absolutely had to pick someone. Interesting that df_trek pointed me out though because I feel like if he were mafia he is pointing me out in collaboration with an actual mafia member (kandes) to stir up some last second confusion.
One last thing, if we choose to lynch kandes and someone is hesitant in joining that train, it could spell bad news. One mafia may have to just give in at this point to blend in with the crowd. Interesting to see if anyone publically acts hesitant to kill him, or questions hillis/knockout logic.
tl;dr - Croatia is my main concern but using logic kandes would be the smarter one to lynch because df_trek would likely be on board.
I was going to make a lynch to kandes since I might be away for 24 hours but in the event that the duo is Croatia & df_trek I do not want them to have the opportunity to jump on this false/wrong lynch. Would rather see hillis & knockout make a move.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 07:57
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I heavily disagree with the statement that knockout should be cleared without having a counterclaim. It was quite clear that he would've been killed without any gamechanging action. So what did he (and probably the other opponent of my 4+2 theory): Create gamechanging action, by lynching nobody and claiming that he was the doctor to save the person. At this point I'm quite sure that he was "gambling" on having killed the doctor with sammyt early already, hence the strange post back then (which I condemned there already). If he would have really been the doctor, I think he wouldn't have brought the doctor case to any attention anyways. Having been "confirmed" that the doctor is out he took the risk now as I think we were close on exposing the mafia.
And ffs, judging from the posts here this almost worked.
jseadog1 wrote:
Number 1: Croatia14
Why: he was acting suspicious towards me early in the game but immediately confirmed me and many others as towns people that ended up being towns people. Almost as if he knows for sure who was town. I'll go more in depth when I'm at my PC but if I'm being honest Croatia played a good game if he's mafia and I hope he doesn't hold a bomb right now because taking out knockout spells deep trouble. Croatia I would like see you explain why you read people the way you did during the game.
This statement makes me rethink your position. I stated my opinions and the reasons for it multiple times, just re-read if you want to re-read.
Mafia Duo: knockout + kandesbunzler (or jseadog)
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 14-04-2019 08:23
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hillis91 wrote:
@df_trek: I tend to agree on Kandes, but i can't see how you ended up with jseadog as his partner insted of Croatia. Jseadog was the third vote in on Aquarius on day 1.
The answer is that I found cleared Croatia from day 2 actions, and later on. But actually his last post is very interesting.
There's none else pointing at knockout, the fact that there wasn't a counterclaim make clear that he should be the doctor, or atp: Croatia, are you the doctor? Because I really don't understand your points against him now. If yes you have to be very persuasive, because imo knockout call looks fair, if no how can you think what you wrote?
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 08:41
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on the last day of a week of voluntary work with 18-hour days 
@df_trek: no it doesn't - I'm not the doctor...but the doctor can very well be dead for now and we wouldn't know
or does that mean that there has been a doctor save and the mafia is not eligeable to lynch nobody?
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 14-04-2019 10:04
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Croatia14 wrote:
but the doctor can very well be dead for now and we wouldn't know
unlikely and fanciful scenario imo
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-04-2019 10:11
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jandal7 wrote:
Day 5:
gunshots being heard in the town, nobody was picked off by the mafia tonight. Heroic work from the town doctor.
it was a doctor save and not a non-kill by the mafia
with the lack of a counter claim once everyone has replied i will now consider myself a confirmed townie too.
I definitely want to see a decision on both lynches on this game day because we might not have any confirmed townies left on the next game day if we hit the terrorist and it is much easier to mislead a single townie than multiple townies incl. Two confirmed ones.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 10:47
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knockout wrote:
Kanzler joins hillis waggon, casts the fourth vote (noone else has more than 2) which pushes it into lynch-dangerous numbers.
Just a quick correction: ryant removed his vote on Aquarius before I made mine, so I casted the third vote on one of the at least two people with 2 votes, which is not so lynch-dangerous.
Also I did not notice that croatia and I look acting like a pair this much, mainly because I didn't pay attention to this possible connection. But now I understand why it looks more suspicious to you than the connection between df_trek and croatia, which looks obvious from my perspective.
Will you do such a day-by-day-strategy analysis for croatia and df_trek too? Because otherwise I believe the town is doomed to lose. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-04-2019 15:00
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kandesbunzler26 wrote:
knockout wrote:
Kanzler joins hillis waggon, casts the fourth vote (noone else has more than 2) which pushes it into lynch-dangerous numbers.
Just a quick correction: ryant removed his vote on Aquarius before I made mine, so I casted the third vote on one of the at least two people with 2 votes, which is not so lynch-dangerous.
Also I did not notice that croatia and I look acting like a pair this much, mainly because I didn't pay attention to this possible connection. But now I understand why it looks more suspicious to you than the connection between df_trek and croatia, which looks obvious from my perspective.
Will you do such a day-by-day-strategy analysis for croatia and df_trek too? Because otherwise I believe the town is doomed to lose.
I'm planning to do if i can find the time, yes.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 15:14
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Lynch Croatia14
Let's get it done.
Croatia14 wrote:
I heavily disagree with the statement that knockout should be cleared without having a counterclaim. It was quite clear that he would've been killed without any gamechanging action. So what did he (and probably the other opponent of my 4+2 theory): Create gamechanging action, by lynching nobody and claiming that he was the doctor to save the person. At this point I'm quite sure that he was "gambling" on having killed the doctor with sammyt early already, hence the strange post back then (which I condemned there already). If he would have really been the doctor, I think he wouldn't have brought the doctor case to any attention anyways. Having been "confirmed" that the doctor is out he took the risk now as I think we were close on exposing the mafia.
And ffs, judging from the posts here this almost worked.
jseadog1 wrote:
Number 1: Croatia14
Why: he was acting suspicious towards me early in the game but immediately confirmed me and many others as towns people that ended up being towns people. Almost as if he knows for sure who was town. I'll go more in depth when I'm at my PC but if I'm being honest Croatia played a good game if he's mafia and I hope he doesn't hold a bomb right now because taking out knockout spells deep trouble. Croatia I would like see you explain why you read people the way you did during the game.
This statement makes me rethink your position. I stated my opinions and the reasons for it multiple times, just re-read if you want to re-read.
Mafia Duo: knockout + kandesbunzler (or jseadog)
Read the intro to the day before making such a dumb post will you?
jandal7 wrote:
Day 5:
Well the town have speculated that the doctor was dead, but clearly not, as despite gunshots being heard in the town, nobody was picked off by the mafia tonight. Heroic work from the town doctor.
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-04-2019 15:20
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Lynch Croatia
If both hillis and me die tonight please follow jdog on the final day.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 15:20
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knockout wrote:
If both hillis and me die tonight please follow jdog on the final day.
+1
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-04-2019 15:20
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And if you read this please quickhammer asap!
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 15:21
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+1 again!
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 14-04-2019 15:22
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Standing to my word to follow hillis:
Lynch croatia |
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 14-04-2019 16:16
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Wrong one imo.. but after reading knockout guide posted on day 4 Lynch Croatia
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